The Wire - July 30, 2026

//The Wire//2100Z July 30, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: UNITED STATES CONDUCTS RETALIATORY STRIKES WITHIN IRAN. CYCLOSPORA OUTBREAK CONTINUES IN UNITED STATES. MIGRATION WAVE HITS SPAIN AFTER SUPREME COURT RULING RESULTS IN BORDER CROSSING BREACH.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: American strikes on Iran continued overnight, with most of the targets being struck in the same coastal regions of Iran that have been targeted since the ceasefire was broken. Iran has claimed to have struck several aircraft on the ground at Muwaffaq al Salti in Jordan, along with other targets around the region which will take some time to verify.

On the American side, one new series of targets struck by the United States was reported in the border town of Abadan, which is geographically located right on the Iraqi border, a short distance from Bubiyan Island where American HIMARs launchers have been observed conducting ATACMS strikes within Iran.

Spain: An emergency situation has been declared after thousands of migrants swarmed the small enclave of Ceuta on the south side of the Strait of Gibraltar. Several thousand migrants breached the border perimeter that separates the Spanish peninsular city of Ceuta, from mainland Morocco. After it became clear to the crowds that there were very few border guards, the fencing was breached by land, and small boats launched by sea to land on the beaches, circumventing the fencing.

Immediately after the migrant waves arrived this morning, the city has been in a state of sheer bedlam. Riots have been reported throughout the peninsula and property owners have reported being swarmed with break ins, as the border itself has completely collapsed.

Analyst Comment: The reason for the fray is due to a recent court ruling which has intensified illegal immigration efforts. This week, Spain's Supreme Court re-affirmed that their borders are open, and that migrants who are apprehended trying to cross over to this peninsula cannot be deported. Last month, Spain's amnesty program officially closed, but because it's very hard to prove an entry date for someone who crossed the border illegally, the boats are being launched like never before, which resulted in today's intensification once the fence was breached.

-HomeFront-

USA: Around the nation the outbreak of cyclospora has continued to remain a concern as the exact point of origin for the parasite remains largely unknown. Over the past few weeks, the infection has continued to spread around the nation, and now a total of 45x states are reporting citizens falling ill. The largest outbreak cluster remains in Michigan and Ohio, and most of the other states affected are located in the midwest, the northeast, and southeastern regions of the nation.

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Analyst Comments: The war in the Middle East has reached a level of complexity that makes direct strikes and targeting efforts way more impactful than they otherwise would be. A few days ago, the Saudis struck targets in northern Iraq, targeting Iran-aligned militia groups. It was partially this action which resulted in Iran striking back at Saudi Arabia yesterday. The groups that were targeted by the Saudis, were allegedly smaller sub-groups within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which had not formally joined with the Iraqi government. For context, the PMF are an infamous collection of militia units and tribes, which align with Iran along religious lines in addition to sharing the geography along the Iranian border.

In recent years, the PMF has been rolled into the Iraqi government, to serve as the official militia/homeguard for the nation. This results in a complex web of loyalties and relationships, as making the PMF a part of the official uniformed Iraqi military service makes them harder to strike due to the diplomatic situation. This is probably why the Saudis attacked when they didn't necessarily need to. They found a way to strike PMF factions that would probably result in a fracturing within the region, but also not really result in a retaliatory attack from the Iraqi government. Or at least, that was the gamble on the part of the Saudis. The fact that the PMF sporadically launch drones at the Saudis helped justify this targeting effort last weekend. However in effect, what this has done, has brought Iran and Iraq closer together...at least in terms of hating the Saudis. 

The problem is that the Saudis (much like others in the region) have a habit of kicking a hornets nest, then handing that nest to the United States to deal with. When the Saudis hit the PMF in Iraq, the militia groups in Iraq will probably take this as an opportunity to increase attacks on the American base in Erbil (as they have for years), and the Iraqi government might not be so inclined to reign them in...because the Americans are not reigning in the Saudis. In short, things are sliding sideways, and because it's complicated and can't be compressed into a quick soundbite for decision makers to consume, the danger is very likely going unnoticed.

Even though it is complicated, this is a comparatively easy example of how escalations can take place not just vertically, but also horizontally. Vertical escalations take the form of increasingly more severe tit-for-tat airstrikes, but horizontal escalations are far less intense, while spreading out around the world. This has resulted in the situation sleepwalking into serious territory, which has largely gone unnoticed because it hasn't been flashy enough for headlines. The Saudis are striking the Iraqis, the Houthis are hitting the Saudis, somebody is striking the Egyptians, the Israelis have slipped back into the shadows, the Iranians are hitting the Jordanians and Americans, and the United States is perplexingly bombing coastal targets and bridges within Iran...which are rather forebodingly only used during the wintertime wet season. These horizontal escalations have been a mainstay of this conflict since the beginning, but right now these more indirect escalations are taking center stage as the United States and Iran slug it out with missiles, drones, and bombs, and the United States is unable to make progress for the time being.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
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