The Wire - August 25, 2026

//The Wire//2300Z August 25, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: CIA DIRECTOR CONDUCTS MYSTERIOUS VISIT TO MOSCOW. AMERICAN TRADE DISPUTE WITH CANADA DETERIORATES AS BOTH SIDES DIG IN AND ANNOUNCE MUTUAL TARIFFS. IRAN STRIKES ANOTHER TANKER IN HORMUZ.//

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 -International Events-

Middle East: Last night Iran struck another tanker vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, which resulted in the vessel being disabled just off the coast of Oman. The vessel has not been identified as of this report, however this is the first tanker vessel struck by Iran in about a week.

Russia: This morning unique aviation traffic was observed, centered around a US Air Force C-17 which took off from Riga, Latvia bound for Moscow. The transport aircraft (Callsign REACH4555) took off from Riga, landing in Moscow a few hours later, with both the United States and Russia not acknowledging the movement. Russians in Moscow also reported seeing American vehicles with diplomatic license plates being escorted by Russian police in the vicinity of the Kremlin.

Analyst Comment: So far, neither side has confirmed who this aircraft movement was related to, however this appears to be a visit by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who arrived for confidential talks with President Putin. This visit (particularly conducted in this manner) is highly unusual, and since all sides are ignoring questions about what was discussed, it will be quite interesting to find out what this visit was really about in a few days. 

The route taken by Ratcliffe's plane into Russia from Latvia was probably a hint regarding what the very short meeting was related to, but this can be interpreted in many different ways which are all speculative. Landing in Riga was not really necessary; the C-17 could have landed directly in Moscow without diverting to Latvia. Russia has been eyeing the targeting of NATO members for supplying Ukraine with munitions for a few months now, and though we have only complete speculation to rely on, it's possible that the visit was related to that. It could also be related to the rapidly escalating strikes on energy infrastructure throughout Russia and Ukraine. Both parties are slugging it out by destroying major petroleum infrastructure which is being made worse by the war in the Middle East, and the CIA Director would be the level of station that would be put on a plane to broker a miniature truce on that front. Whatever it was, it was certainly not without major importance. The last time the chief spy visited the Kremlin was five years ago, when Director Burns visited Russia to warn against invading Ukraine. That visit was largely kept a secret and only disclosed after the fact, whereas this morning's visit was telegraphed to the world to see very visibly.

Canada: The trade dispute with the United States continues to deteriorate as both sides intensify hostile rhetoric on the economic front. So far, talks have stalled and both sides appear to be heading toward a return to mutual retaliatory tariffs. Over the past few days President Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tax on all automotive and auto parts imports from Canada, and this morning Canada announced a similar threats of tariffs on American imports.

-HomeFront-

Nevada: The Hawk Fire continues to demonstrate active fire behavior as weather conditions have allowed the fire's spread over the past 24 hours. As of this morning, almost 90,000 people are either in mandatory evacuation zones, or are in the "get ready" zones, preparing to evacuate. Good progress was made overnight by crews digging handlines, which have prioritized defending residences in Dog Valley. The weather forecast indicates an increase in conditions favorable for fire behavior over the next 24 hours, with the National Interagency Fire Center predicting the potential for the fire to make major runs to the Northeast and Northwest over the next few days.

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Analyst Comments: Within the Middle East, another threat vector bears consideration as the United States and Iran engage in their economic-warfare phase of the conflict. Yesterday, the United States announced the start of this economic campaign, which began with no real solid and tangible tactics being disclosed. More generally, this plan is an economic version of "if you're not with us, you're against us", and is intended to force other nations that have been sitting on the fence, to choose to support the United States (or at least, not support Iran). The issue with this plan, is that Iran has publicly stated many times that they will not be engaging in tit-for-tat economic policies...they will be meeting economic targeting, with kinetic targeting.

How serious they are about this, is anyone's guess; they may just be content to let the Americans continue the economic warfare, on the bet that it won't really affect them since they've been sanctioned for half a century already. However, if Iran does decide to use missiles and drones to respond to American economic targeting, this could get ugly.

For instance, if the United States somehow seriously hurts their ability to work with Pakistan to export oil through their pipeline, the Iranians might strike a Chevron facility in Iraq. And they probably won't be hitting the storage tanks, but the office trailer where they know Americans are working. They could also hit the American-linked banking headquarters facilities with precision strikes in Dubai, as a message to both parties. Based on the rhetoric that has been flying all around, this would be an example of the next rungs on the escalation ladder that both sides are climbing by the day. Iran limiting their strikes to only valid military targets and petroleum facilities so far during this war, might lend one to have the false assumption that Iran has been striking the most significant targets they could find. In terms of risk management, if the Iranians have indeed been holding back, the only way that the US will find out that their assumptions are wrong, will be Iranian munitions landing at facilities that the US did not expect.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//