The War in Iran

0:00Every week, Hillsdale College President Larry Arn joins Hugh Hewitt to discuss great books, great men, and great ideas. This is Hillsdale Dialogues, part of the Hillsdale College podcast network, more episodes at podcast.hillsdale.edu or wherever you find your audio. The following program is pre-recorded. Morning glory and evening grace America, that music means the Hillsdale Dialogues underway, that hour we set aside for big topics and big talk. Last four weeks we've had Professor Khalil here. I got to tell you Dr. Larry Arn, President of Hillsdale College, is back with me to talk some current events today and then Churchill when I come a couple of weeks. He's been on a pocket traveling more than anybody I know in the last month,

1:04but Khalil was quite the revelation to my audience. Dr. Arn, he can teach you a bit, can he? He's not mad. Who would I interviewed him for a job here? I sat and talked to him for three hours. It's a record. I ain't of you all, but three for every job bit. But that guy, you can just talk to that guy all day long. Yes, you can't. What did you talk about? Do all the Shakespeare history plays like we did? Everything. He actually was not entirely suitable for the job that we were advertising. His expertise is different. Thereby loved him so much. What do we talk about? One point we talked about how the college works and what we're trying to get done here. And at one point, he looked at me and said, can I help you with those things? And I said, yeah, that's the job. You got to help. Well, if I've been on your show, then he's been helping. He's a great teacher. I just can tell some people engage, listen, ask questions.

2:05He's just a great teacher. Now, you and I, it was providential that we didn't talk for four weeks. What's the old saying? Someone said it to me this week. Lenin said nothing happens for centuries and then centuries happened in decades. This has been three week period that's been extraordinary. So let's just begin with your general reaction to what has happened. Well, we're learning that it's a very dangerous world. And it's not going to be easy to navigate the world. The president is doing very dramatic things to attempt that. And we don't know how they're going to come out yet. I think I see what he's up to. But who knows, I'm talking to him. I think all this has a lot to do with China. I think that three countries in the news, Venezuela, Cuba, and China. And I'm not talking about Cuba beating us nearly last night in the world, baseball, classic. I'm talking about, sorry, Venezuela beating us nearly.

3:08I'm talking about the fact that those three countries have close relations with China. In the case of Venezuela and Iran, China gets huge oil shipments from both places. It's subsidized rates. I read that Cuba has been buying 90% of Iran's oil, which are under sanctions. And that's great for them because they get the oil. And they're not even paying market price for it. They need the oil. So Cuba is, you know, similarly close to China. And China is in the Western Hemisphere. Trump has been very upset about that. In regard to the Panama Canal, Cuba, and Greenland, I see that the Chinese company that was running the ports of egress and egress on both sides of the Panama Canal has lost the contract. So Trump cares about that here in the Western Hemisphere.

4:10And then Iran is on the other side of the world. And it's, you know, maybe the most important Chinese proxy. But it's got them all over now into Europe, too. And so it looks to me like a strategic move. These things look like strategic moves to keep China from taking over the world. But I'm not sure, you know, what's on his mind. He said, I'm confident that there's a great deal on his mind. I'm confident that we are unlikely to name a factor here that he's not thinking about. Well, I think you put your finger on something that a few people have said over the course of the past month is that there's a war within a war. There's a battle within a war. The war is called war 2.0 with China. And the battle within the war is with Iran. And before the action, before the battle was Venezuela. And during and after the battle was Cuba. But it all fits into superpower competition, which is back.

5:11And it never went away. We just pretended not to notice it after the Berlin Wall fell. And we got our dividend, our peace dividend for long period of time. But if those three things turn out, and as it's providential, we're reading the gathering storm. Because a lot of hope for things don't turn out the way that we hope for them. But if they turn out, we'll talk about best cases and worst cases. The strategic position in the United States via the China will be immeasurably improved. I keep saying on Fox. I think I've said it four times now. The world is a much better place today, 15, 16, 19 days. Whenever I shop, then it was 15, 16, 19 days ago. Because it is. Because Iran's much weaker in Venezuela isn't run by Maduro. It's better to have those results than not to have those results. If you're an American. If you can afford them, people are war weary. And Trump's supporters, many of them, have defected. And I understand that. We've had very ambitious wars in the Middle East,

6:14including to build democracy there. And they don't work out very well. And they cost a lot of money. And the situation is bad after they're over. It looks to me like Trump has more limited war aims here, which means more reasonable probably. And I think that we will, like I think, reading today what he said last night and this morning. I think we might just declare victory. Everybody's saying, what's his end game? Right? We're going to say boots on the ground and open the straits of hormones. I wouldn't, you know, I can only guess. I bet he doesn't know right now because he's weighing factors and they're changing every day. But I could see him just declaring victory and going home. And Iran is weaker than it was two weeks ago. And he could do that and say, we'd come back if we have to. The fishers in the NATO allowance alliance are very deep and obvious now.

7:16France is apparently, it's in the paper this morning, appealing to Iran to negotiate with them for Iran to protect its tankers. And it's oil coming to it through the straits of hormones. And so there's an open breach there. But that's matched. And I don't know. The next segment, I intend to ask you. I think this may be the beginning of the end of NATO. And I'm not given to overly dramatic statements, but the failure to show up and the separate peace negotiation. It's not how an alliance works. But Macron is a lame document representing France. I don't think Kierstarmor represents Great Britain. But to stay for a moment on the fact that the Marines are going from an M.E.U. And you've got Marines all over that place up at Hilldale. And you bring in the former commandant, and you bring in my old friend, and they give lectures, and you generate a lot of Marines and other people for the services up there. 2500 Marines in an M.E.U. and all the sporting crap. They can do a lot of different things. They could go to Carg Island.

8:16They could take up positions on the Iranian side of the strait. They could go off a Yemen and menace them. They can do a lot of things. I also don't think it would be a bad thing if we just pounded them for four more weeks or eight weeks from the air, so that there is very little left to make war with, and then dare them to close the straits. Because if they hit a ship, we'll have to do something else. Like you said, option on the table. And here's a, see, there's a, there's a strain of thought that's legitimate and big. And it is the original foreign policy of the United States. Avoided long-term alliances and avoided involvements in the world outside the Western, Western hemisphere, the Monroe Doctrine. But that itself, by the way, was built upon an alliance with the British and their navy, which agreed with the thing, and helped us to enforce the Monroe Doctrine. There's always been alliances.

9:16We've been reluctant about them, and we were off here by ourselves on a continent by ourselves. And we were very keen to get control of the continent, which we did. And that was a major achievement to extend free government across that vast land. When they started out with the intention to do that, they didn't know how big the continent was. They've never traversed it. That was a whole human generation later that they achieved that with Lewis and Clark. So one train of thought is we don't have to worry about the straits of our modes. And I will just say there's something to that. We are an oil-independent power. Trump appealed for help to release the straits and open them up to the people who really are dependent on it. And all of them have declined. And, you know, so there's an argument for, okay, we don't want Iran to be a nuclear power with long-range guided missiles.

10:22That can reach us. And we don't want that, right? And so we are taking steps to prevent that. But maybe we don't care as much about the straits of our modes. That's a question to be open. It does involve it. It does involve the price of oil, though, since oil is an international market and it's close to $100 a barrel. Today is we're talking on Wednesday for Arianon Friday. I'll be right back with Dr. Ron, stay tuned. Charlie Kirk understood that before he could lead, he needed to learn. He didn't need a degree, but he did need a teacher. Hillsdale College was there to teach him. Wherever and whenever he wanted to learn. Charlie took many of Hillsdale's free online courses. Studying the classics, the American founding, and the Bible. And you can learn like Charlie at Hillsdale.edu-network. That's Hillsdale.edu-network. Charlie Kirk strengthened his knowledge and courage by studying the greatest thinkers,

11:24writers, and leaders of history. All with Hillsdale College. Visit Hillsdale.edu-network and you too can learn like Charlie. That's Hillsdale.edu-network. Hi there, it's Bill Gray from Hillsdale College. Before you skip ahead, can I ask you a question or two? If you could teach 50 million Americans one thing, what would it be? Would you teach our great American story that this nation is unique, founded on self-government and individual liberty? Maybe you would teach the truth about free enterprise, how hard work and opportunity allow anyone to rise. Or would you teach the gospel and the Christian faith that helps us live good and meaningful lives? At Hillsdale College, we're doing exactly that, teaching the best that's been thought and said. Through our free online courses, K-12 programs,

12:26in primus, podcasts, and more, we reach and teach millions every year with the principles of liberty that make America free. And with your help, we can reach even more. Your tax deductible gift today will help us teach millions more people to pursue truth and defend liberty. Just text the word give to 71844. You'll get a secure link to make your donation in seconds. That's give to 71844. Thank you for standing with us. Now, back to the show. Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hugh at I always send outlines of these programs for the Hillsdale Dialogs. All things Hillsdale at Hillsdale.edu, including your application, including the opportunity to sign up for in primus. They have a brand new course on rhetoric available on the Hillsdale online courses, which I recommend to you. All things is Hillsdale at Hillsdale.edu. All of our prior dialogue, Hugh for Hillsdale.com. But before I sit down with Dr. Arne, send him an outline. And here the outline says,

13:27best case, worst case of the war with Iran. How do you put the best in the worst on the table, Dr. Arne? Well, the best case would be your gene change if the people of Iran managed to make it. I don't think we can. I don't even think we're going to try. What we're doing is ruthlessly eliminating senior leadership. And they were probably, and they what IRGC, Republican Guard, they, and that might make an opening. That would be a good case. And a good case would be Iran was not an irresponsible, dangerous power anymore. That's the best case scenario. I don't know if we should expect that right now. I also don't think we depend on it. You know, cleaning up the whole world is going to take a long time. And then it'll still be messy after that, probably. Another good thing that's happening is, although NATO is very shaky,

14:29the Gulf states are very strong. They don't like these Iranians, right? And you know, Qatar and Saudi Arabia and all of them, they've got, you know, they've got plenty of problems of their own. But their course has been to modernize, make the place tourist attractions. They like, you know, especially Qatar. They like people coming, right? And so they're being attacked by Iran. And Iran is hostile to them. So we've got some allies there. You know, I read Homer's to Qatar. One of my favorite British prime ministers is Palmerston. And one of his favorite sayings was Britain has no permanent allies and or enemies, only permanent interests. The same applies to us. And our interests are in the middle east of those who stand with us. And if our old allies aren't our old allies anymore, that's over. And we just got to deal with it. That's right. I hope and think that we're, you know, there's an argument that's, you know,

15:30a progressive era argument that's been very powerful in both Republican and Democratic administrations since the progressive era, and up to recent. And the argument is, if we make the whole world free, then at last, there'll be peace in the world. And, you know, that's obviously a wonderful ambition. It's got some logical problems with it. One of them is the limit power from outside. Another one is, can you run a free country for somebody else? The British Empire, which, you know, lasted a long time and was everywhere and was very successful. It's the core of it. Soon became a bunch of free countries that were on their own initiative loyal to the Crown and the Alliance was written. And the one big trouble spot was India and that never did quite work out for them. Church of the World. One of it I might also have was reformed Christianity. Was it not? It was not evangelical, but it was by almost happenstance.

16:35Evangelicalism and the common law came with the British Empire. Yeah. And see, if you can't make the whole world into a friend and I personally have never believed that we could do that and I don't believe the founders of our country believed that in fact. I know they didn't, they certainly sent it to the contrary. Let's put it that way. Then it means that we're going to live in a dangerous world and we need to be smart and cagey. And we shouldn't look for utopian solutions. And so it's possible that what comes out of this is that we get out of there in a couple of weeks. And the place is still amassed, but now Iran is weaker. Part of the news. Until the best cases were out of there by the end of May with whatever follows. And there are grades on that. Worst case, we have an enduring presence and a base in Iran that can be threatened. Do you agree with me about that? Yeah, everything is a credential matter, right?

17:36In other words, let's say that there's a revolt and a friendly government is established and they ask us to stay and offer us money to stay. Well, we certainly listen to an offer like that, but it depends, right? If you start with thinking through the interest of the United States of America, which are the proper concern of its government, its people, their interests, then you're going to have to be smart because, look, China, if we were fighting China right now, there's a Heritage Foundation did a big AI-powered war game, us in China, and it's being published now, I think. And what it shows is against China, we've run out of bullets in three weeks. Yup, and by bullets, I mean, there must be sophisticated stuff to actually do something on a modern battlefield. I think we have some exciting new weapons coming in.

18:36I think some of them are even deployed in Iran, but look at the position we're in. See, the world is very dangerous, including very dangerous for us, and I don't think that's going to go away any time soon, but look, we've got what? We've got 11 or 12 aircraft carrier groups, and they are the greatest mobile assemblage of power in human history, and maybe they're not safe anymore. Well, I'm not in fear. Yeah. I'll ask what the retirement of the Nimitz were down to 10, and the last, they may not be what we thought they were, but they have not yet been touched. I'll be right back with Dr. Arndt, don't go anywhere. The Hilldale dialogue continues. Welcome back, America. Dr. Larry Arndt is with me. All right, I left the shortest segment of our Hilldale dialogue. All things Hilldale, Hilldale.edu, and all of the Hilldale dialogues are found at you for Hilldale.com.

19:38We have spent the better part of the year in the 1930s, watching Britain prepare or not prepare for war, France prepare wrongly for war, and we're going to spend a lot of time on church old memoirs going forward. But Dr. Arndt, Britain and France had not been the allies that we were to them in their two struggles in the 19th and the 20th century, and I am eye for one, and deeply disappointed, and I wonder, like Lindsey Graham, out loud, does NATO go on after this? What do you think? Well, it needs to be in the interest of the United States of America, and it needs to show that it can contribute. Because, you know, let's say I believe that we need allies, I think we're outnumbered, as we have for most American history, and the oceans are not as wide as they used to be. And so, let's say you need allies. Well, what are the criteria? You need allies who can fight. You need allies who are unlikely for deep reasons to join your worst enemies.

20:42And I'm not sure that those European nations meet that criteria. All of them may be none of them. Poland and Hungary, and probably Finland is among the ones we could count on. Maybe Sweden. Germany has been closer to, because Germany is a big country, and Germany has been closer to us in this thing, but they're not helping. And I don't, you know, I don't know that I blame them. You know, Trump was very bold, right? And he's, he's got, he's got gumption, boy doesn't know it. And so he hasn't gone into this with the statement, I'm going to remake the Middle East. He has said that might happen. It depends on people in Iran and in the region. But what he's doing is weakening Iran. And I believe it's connected to China. And, you know, North Korea is a crazy regime and has nuclear weapons

21:43that can reach some American territory by missiles. And that's very dangerous. One would have to guess that the Iranian regime would be more dangerous. Well, I think it is. Let me, let me give you the argument. Why? North Korea is a fanatical despotism run by one man and his family. And they have nuclear weapons. Iran is a theological end times driven, millenarian driven eschatology. And that's a lot more dangerous. Because they got a vision of the after times that involves chaos and they hidden Imam emerging from the well. And that's not good for anybody. No, well, it's good for the Imam, I guess. But if, you know, it's, and, you know, the thing, you know, like the argument being made by some important people who've been close to Trump, the important people of large audiences has been, he promised no more war. I'm not sure that he ever did that. But if he did that, he was big, he was being foolish.

22:45Because that's not entirely in our hands. And we don't know enough to know if this war is going to make sense. But if it weakens Iran for an intermediate term of time, at the cost that we've paid so far, then that's the game. You got to weigh that down the ice glitter in 2015. He said a few things and people remember the wall. But he also said Iran can't have a nuclear weapon and the JCPOA is the worst deal that's ever been done. And he had said about Iran not having nuclear weapons repeatedly for decades before he got into politics. He thought we were being embarrassed by this. This is sort of one of the few through lines of his career, is that Iran's a dangerous place and they can have nuclear weapons. I don't think he ever said he would not bomb Iran. In fact, I think he said the opposite. Now, I don't, you know, people might have heard. And you know, he was very critical of these forever wars. And I was too, at the time, he was too, at the time.

23:48Just because I thought, how exactly are you going to do that? You know, I mean, the British, what Churchill believed was that if the British had hung on in India, that there'd been huge progress in India. And there's a democratic government in a free government, consent of the government in India today, and that is inspired by the British Empire experience. So that's a very long term view. And Britain is a different country to me. He's probably going to bring it back. About 250 years to go from the kingdoms, the many kingdoms of India, to the right honorable company to the British Empire. I'll be right back. America takes you in with Dr. Arnard. All things hilltale, hilltales.edu. Charlie Kirk understood that before he could lead, he needed to learn. He didn't need a degree,

24:48but he did need a teacher. Hillsdale College was there to teach him, wherever and whenever he wanted to learn. Charlie took many of Hillsdale's free online courses, studying the classics, the American founding, and the Bible. And you can learn like Charlie at hillsdale.edu slash network. That's hillsdale.edu slash network. Charlie Kirk strengthened his knowledge and courage by studying the greatest thinkers, writers, and leaders of history, all with Hillsdale College. Visit hillsdale.edu slash network, and you too can learn like Charlie. That's hillsdale.edu slash network. Hi there, it's Bill Gray from Hillsdale College. Before you skip ahead, can I ask you a question or two? If you could teach 50 million Americans one thing,

25:49what would it be? Would you teach our great American story that this nation is unique, founded on self-government and individual liberty? Maybe you would teach the truth about free enterprise, how hard work and opportunity allow anyone to rise. Or would you teach the gospel and the Christian faith that helps us live good and meaningful lives? At Hillsdale College, we're doing exactly that, teaching the best that's been thought and said. Through our free online courses, K-12 programs, in primus, podcasts, and more, we reach and teach millions every year with the principles of liberty that make America free. And with your help, we can reach even more. Your tax deductible gift today will help us teach millions more people to pursue truth and defend liberty. Just text the word give to 71844. You'll get a secure link to make your donation in seconds. That's give to 71844. Thank you for standing with us.

26:49Now, back to the show. Welcome back, America. Dr. Larry Arne is my guest. The Hillsdale Dialogue is underway. Dr. Arne in the first three segments of this Hillsdale Dialogue, first one we've talked about since the war with Iran began. Neither you nor I have mentioned Israel. And I was kind of waiting to see if you would. And now I'm going to bring it up. If you're going to have one ally in the Middle East and maybe the world, I think it might be Israel. What do you think? Well, I went down my list and they can fight. And they're not going to join our enemies. And they're located in a very important place. I don't think that they're telling us what to do. It doesn't make any sense that they could. They're a little country, right? And in America, our government is elected. I should mention this. One of the things that I regret. I regret the progress of amendments to the Constitution. And the 22nd amendment comes rather later.

27:50But it means that Trump can't run again. And it would be better if he could. It would be better if he could. And it would be better if he didn't. Both are true. But it would be better if he could, because right now he can't stand in front of the American people again. And so people are saying that he doesn't care what they think. And that means that that mistake, that that amendment was a terrible mistake. And it's traceable in part to Franklin Roosevelt who violated the example of George Washington and got himself elected four times. Nobody else more than two. And we should note that Grant tried to get a nomination but was rejected. So it's not a given if you're going to get re-nominated. That's right. And that's the reason because we were in a beautiful position before the greatest American. If it's not Abe Lincoln, it's George Washington. And he had set an example. And that example was powerful. But it was not constitutionally prescribed. And it would be really cool right now.

28:52If, you know, because there's a lot of, you know, and who knows about the midterms, everybody is despairing about them. And I like the fact that they're in the future, which means that we don't know. But he would be more formidable in the midterms if he might be able to say, I might do it again. And maybe he's more formidable in the midterms if a conclusively positive. I don't use the word victory, because I don't know what victory looks like. But if a positive result comes out of this conflict and one that is unassailably positive, I mean, they'll always be, there's a bell curve in intellect and they'll be dumb people on the far left and the far right who won't like whatever the result is. But if 80% of America says, hey, we are in a better position now than we were before Trump ordered epic fury, I'm feeling pretty good about the November elections, Dr. Arn. What about, if that's the case, what do you think? Well, it's always better to feel pretty good on any given day

29:54because if you, it's sufficient under the day, is the evils thereof. Yeah, I think we don't know. And I do think that the president is a very formidable politician and he breaks a lot of rules. And one of the rules he breaks is, you know, in a second, presidents are notoriously weak in their second terms, all of them. He has not been, they're more notoriously weak after the midterms, we'll see. And he's, you know, one of my, my, why is old friend John Marini has written many times, the way Republicans tend to win on national issues. And so they nationalize elections. They make it about the greatness and well-being and preservation of the country. And Trump is pretty good at that. And I would have hopes, let's put it that way. And I'm certainly not doing that. Let me take the break now. We'll come back and I'll ask Dr. Arne about student opinion on Hillsdale College after the war has begun

30:55because he does haunt the dining room. So I'll be right back after this. Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewitt, Dr. Larry Arne is my guest. The Hillsdale dialogue is underway. Dr. Arne, we got three minutes. You haunt the dining halls. What do your youngsters think about this war? Well, it broke out over spring break. And so Lord Lone knows that I think that there's a, they like most Americans are tired of forever wars. And to some of them, it will look like Trump has embarked on that. But also they're patriotic and they love their country. Well, a lot of them, you know, like I've enjoyed, you know, there's, if you go on YouTube, probably two-thirds of it is lies that they're charming lies about the weapons we're using in the way the battle is going. And so there's a lot of enthusiasm for that. It's like watching a really good football game. And so it'll be both things, right?

31:57And they'll be just like you and usually I am at least trying to figure it out and see what it means. And remember in an education, these kids are 18 to 21 years old and they're young. A smart has it impacted them that the regime that we're fighting murdered 35,000 people their age in January? I'm just wondering if that's in their consciousness. They just gunned them down. Well, you have to make an adjustment there because this is not an activist campus nor do we want it to be. One of my favorite things to say to them is you're too young and ignorant to say the world yet. Why don't you learn about it? And that's what you get a chance to do here, right? And so I had a meeting, young professor and I had a meeting with 45 boys a few weeks ago, a kind of extra meeting at night

32:57about the Middle East and stuff. And here, you know, first of all, one of the questions was, how do we know about the Holocaust? Because they hear, you know, important people diminishing it. And, you know, that's in other words, that's a very basic question, right? How do you know my God? And I entered this, I said, I said, do you ever run across, go home and do it over break? Look up a letter or a paper that you wrote in high school and read it. Because whatever memory you have of how you were in high school will be corrected by that piece of writing that you find and you can find it. And you will say, oh, yeah, that's what I was like, right? The reason we know about history is that it exists in documents written at the time. And there are a massive number of them. Well, remember that's undergraduate college, very ambitious, studying all the great things, with a bunch of young people who never did that before. And that's the kind of thing, right?

33:58That's a wonderful way for them to have them go look at it, have them go watch Eisenhower March the local Germans through the death camp. That's on video, that's not made up there. Dr. Larry Arne, president of Hillsdale College. Thank you, my friend, all things Hillsdale.edia. We'll be back next week in the war. The war has begun as we end as the Churchill memoirs don't miss the next Hillsdale Dialogue. Thanks for listening to the Hillsdale Dialogs, part of the Hillsdale College podcast network. More episodes at podcast dot Hillsdale dot edu or wherever you find your audio. For more information about Hillsdale College, head to Hillsdale dot edu.