The view from inside Iran

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GRAD. WVU are podcasts. Boston. Of course they see it as an opportunity, one that they

haven't ever had, but on the other hand, they also think it's very risky what if Donald Trump cuts

a deal with the regime, then what? Kurdish forces in Iraq are reportedly planning for a possible

incursion into Iran. Could they be a lever for regime change in Tehran, or agents of chaos?

Or will they just be left out to drive?

It's Thursday, March 5th, and this is here and now any time from NPR and WVU are. I'm Chris Bentley.

Today on the show, a retired Navy admiral says the U.S. attacked Iran without a clear plan for

what happens next politically. We're going to have to turn to an existing probably IRGC leader

when we haven't killed to temporarily and potentially permanently lead the country going forward.

Also, we'll get a rare view from Tehran. Who are you to change your regime? How can you

consider for yourself that you have this authority to go and decide for the other nations?

Life inside Iran under bombardment by the U.S. and Israel, coming up in about 15 minutes.

But first, on day 6 of the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran, most of the strikes are coming from

the air, bombs, missiles, drones. But there's growing speculation about what could happen on the ground,

specifically along Iran's northwestern border where Kurdish fighters have long opposed the Iranian

government. The Kurds are a stateless ethnic group of mostly Sunni Muslims who live in a mountainous

region they call Kurdistan, which spans parts of Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria. Some Kurdish groups

based in Iraq are reportedly preparing units that could cross into Iran, and observers wonder if

President Trump might see the Kurds as a tool for regime change in Iran. The White House is pushing

back on that idea. Here's Press Secretary Carolyn Levit. The President has held many calls with

partners, allies, and leaders in the region in the Middle East. He did speak to Kurdish leaders

with respect to our base that we have in northern Iraq. But as for any report suggesting that the

President has agreed to any such plan is completely false and should not be written.

But Kurdish leaders and regional officials reportedly say the preparations are real.

So says Amberin Zaman, she's chief correspondent for Al Monitor, an American news site focused on

the Middle East, and she told Indira Lakshmanan that groups along the Iran-Iraq border are discussing

whether to move in to Iran. What they're preparing for specifically is to be able to move in once

they're confident that the regime is sufficiently weakened in those Kurdish provinces so that they

can basically take charge. And as you know, the Israelis and the Americans have been bombing those

areas very heavily, targeting Iranian security forces, and so basically prepping the ground

for these forces to move in. So if Kurdish forces did open a front in western Iran, how big of a

threat could they possibly be to Iran's much bigger and better funded Islamic Revolutionary Guard

Corps? Well, that's an excellent question. And obviously in advance of any such move, they would

need to be assured that the IRGC, the Basij and other Iranian security forces are sufficiently

weakened in those areas so that they can become effective. Now, the real threat really is that

if other ethnic groups inside Iran, notably the Baloch and the Azeris, two other ethnic groups

you're referring to. That's correct, yes. If they are inspired then to rise up as well,

because Iran has a huge problem, especially with the Baloch who live along the frontier with

Pakistan, but this is all very speculative for now because many of these groups that are in

this Kurdish alliance have not seen combat for decades. They've been basically living in camps

well away from the Iranian border have very little presence inside Iran.

Amberin, the US, as you note, has partnered with Kurdish forces before, memorably during the

Iraq war and those alliances haven't always lasted. Do the Kurdish leaders fear that the US would

leave them high and dry, not actually stand by them if things escalate or go south?

Totally because there is a long history of the US encouraging the Kurds to rise up

only to let them down. We saw this play out in 1991 when George Bush asked them to rise up

against Saddam Hussein and then did nothing for them when they did and we saw Saddam Hussein kill

them by the thousands. More recently we saw something similar play out in Syria, if not quite on

that scale where the US pivoted towards Damascus and watched the Syrian army attack the Kurds

and not intervene to stop that from happening. You're talking directly to Kurdish leaders now. Do

they see this moment as a genuine opening for them and their ambitions or are they concerned

this is a risk that could backfire if the current Iranian regime survives?

Well, they feel very split on this issue on the one hand. Of course, they see it as an opportunity

one that they haven't ever had. So why not give it a try given what's going on inside Iran?

But on the other hand, they also think it's very risky. What if Donald Trump cuts a deal with the

regime? Then what? Ambrin Zaman is chief correspondent for Al-Monitor, a US-based Middle Eastern

news website. Ambrin, thank you so much for your time. Let's take a short break now and then

Robin Young will pick up the conversation about Kurds and lots more on the war with a retired

Navy admiral. That's after the break.

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today. Let's bring in retired Admiral Mark Montgomery with the foundation for defensive

democracies whose leadership has advocated for regime change in Iran. Admiral Montgomery

served in the Navy for decades does support this war with concerns, but Admiral first your thought

on this idea that the CIA might harm Kurds to foment a popular uprising in Iran.

Yeah, I'm not happy with this. I would have hoped that a precursor for starting this conflict

would have been that we had an idea of who we would arm ahead of time. The only time I've ever

seen air-enabled campaigns work in Libya in 2011 and Kosovo in 1999, both of which are

participated in, we had armed insurgencies going on the ground and therefore the air campaign worked.

The idea that we're now going to turn to the Kurds, a group that I think would be viewed

very poorly by the Iranian public. I mean, if you want the Iranian public to like the IRGC,

the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, core armed the Kurds and bring them against them.

Well, and again, we should say White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said that

talk of the CIA funding the Kurds was completely false, but to something that you just said,

you would have thought this would have been planned out beforehand. Do you get the sense that

this may not have been tabletopped as they call it? So I would break it up into the political part

in the military part. The military part clearly was well organized, planned, and is now being

executed pretty well. And by that, I mean, the kind of lines of effort where you destroy the IRGC,

the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, core, and their facilities, you suppress enemy air defense,

you destroy their maritime capabilities, you destroy probably most importantly their ballistic

missile capabilities, facilities, and future production, and their drone capabilities,

facilities, and future production. So that part, I think, is organized right. What you're asking is

the political end of this of what's the strategic endgame here clearly not mapped out in an

effective way. And that's why the President, the Secretary of State, and Secretary of Defense have

given five or six different reasons for why we're doing this and outcomes that they expect from it.

Now, what about the sense that there can be a popular uprising fomented in the very first

moments of this? President Trump also said to the Iranian people,

it's your government, go take it. Now, we're hearing from analysts, Karim Sahjad-Pur,

for instance, is one who says in the beginning of this regime, 47 years ago,

you might have had 20 percent of the Iranian population opposed, 80 percent supporting

the regime that came in. Now, it's more like 80 percent against the regime 20 supporting.

But still, we saw an uprising attempted and thousands of people were killed. So,

is that also kind of a false assumption, or what do you think?

So I think the 80-20 is probably correct. The problem is the 20 percent have all the weapons.

And we saw that, you know, anywhere, you know, depending who believed three to 30,000

protesters were killed, that'll have a dampening effect on future protests if they don't have

weapons, if they don't have a believable path to victory, which you don't have when you have 125,000

highly organized IRGC of whom I think anywhere from 25 to 50,000 are true believers, you know,

that are going to fight to the bitter end. You need to have an armed adversary on the ground,

but it needs to be someone that people can embrace, and again, getting back to the Kurds,

not the Kurds. But also, who leads? We spoke to an Iranian in Iran, but I'm hearing this elsewhere,

too, that there's a deep concern that the U.S. will do what it's done in the past in Iran,

and in the more recent history in other countries, handpicked somebody to put into lead a country that

has not worked historically. I mean, certainly, we're getting to the point where we're going to

militarily achieve, you know, through air power and significant damage to all those lines of

effort, I said, and the problem is at the end of that, without having solved, the military's

very good at this, you know, planning and executing a war plan, the military is world class.

The problem is the political leadership did not have a similar effort in how you solve this,

how you resolve this politically, and as a result, we're going to be left with that military

solution, which means exactly what you said. We're going to have to turn to an existing

probably IRGC leader, one we haven't killed, to temporarily and potentially permanently lead the

country going forward. I hope, you know, it sounds like we've been listening to their conversations

for several years. Maybe we've detected some senior IRGC people who privately have had

misgivings about the IRGC. Maybe those are the ones we approach. I'm not sure. But we better

do something so that at the four or five-week point, we're able to end the air campaign,

because there are no more targets at that point, realistically. I'd say one other thing,

though, and the president hasn't said this enough, the IRGC killed a thousand American soldiers

in Iraq. These are in different ways. We documented this. These are people that we should hold

accountable. I'm not opposed to the military part of this. I am disappointed that with all

the timing of this, we in Israel drove the timing of this, yet we did not have the appropriate

level of political solution ready to go. I just have to ask you. You tell us you just got back

from weeks in Ukraine. How critical a situation is there in Ukraine right now? Well, they're not

going to lose this war, but the ballistic missile attacks by Russia every day, which equal what

we're seeing in the Middle East on the few days here, they get every day, and many of them

are hitting because they're short patriot, a missile called AMRAAM and other air defense systems.

And what happens is it hits critical infrastructure and private residential areas, killing

Ukrainian citizens. It's off the radar. It is. Retired Admiral Mark Montgomery with the

nonprofit foundation for Defensive Democracies Research Institute. Admiral Mark, thank you so much.

Thank you very much. To that point of Iran's political future, mentioned earlier,

in the apparent lack of an American plan for it, President Trump told Politico today that he

expects to play a big role in choosing Iran's future leadership. Quote,

we'll work with the people in the regime to make sure that somebody gets there that can nicely

build Iran, but without nuclear weapons. Well, Robin mentioned hearing from an Iranian.

After the break, we'll listen to that conversation about what it's like to live in Tehran during

wartime. Stick around.

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Last year, after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in June,

we reached Ali Safari at his home in Tehran. He's a former news editor and doctoral student

in international relations. Here's what he told us last year when we asked him what he was most

concerned about back then. Well, I cannot guarantee that I'm going to be alive to see what is going

to be the future of Iran in my country. But what I can say, I'm really afraid of a regional war,

because the war, the military, is not an option. If you want to engage in diplomacy,

you have to continue the diplomatic way. Of course, since that U.S. Israeli attack,

known as the 12-day war, there's been widespread unrest and suffering in Iran.

The government there killed thousands of protesters in January. And now this war.

Yesterday, when we spoke to Ali, he told Robin Young, bombs were falling near his home.

I'm talking to you on the attack right now. There is some kind of attacks in the western parts

of Tehran, which is really close to my home. And I'm hearing the sounds of explosion even

right now, and the attack is going on. Well, what do you think about what's being said

here in the United States? We had our Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth saying this war has just begun

that there's another large wave coming. We heard from President Trump, the White House,

just recently that there's going to be complete control of the airspace indicating heightened attacks.

How does that, how do you receive that? Well, to be honest, I'm not a military person and not

a military expert to talk about that. But what I can say, what we are hearing from the American

officials as Iranian citizens, we are receiving and hearing different signals from the American

officials. Because what is the purpose of this war that they have started? Because what we have

had during the June, they have said that they have started this war for the cause of the Iranian,

so-called nuclear program. And now they are saying that we're going to continue to hit the

Iranian nuclear program, also Iranian Missus capability. And also we are looking for, I mean,

making an atmosphere for some kind of change inside the Iranian, I mean, governments or maybe

overthrew the regime. And at the other hand, we have heard also exactly one night before the

beginning of this war, the Wars of the Foreign Minister of Oman, which he have said that we are so

close to Richard Diel. And also now, today, I think, or yesterday, we have heard what the American

negotiator said that. No, it wasn't any possibility to, I mean, have a deal with the Iranian. So,

I mean, there are some kind of different things that we are hearing every day. Well, believe me.

Yeah, believe me. We have, you know, here in the States been talking quite a bit about mixed

messaging. What was this attack about? Was it, as you said, to obliterate the nuclear program

that was said to have been obliterated in June? Is it about regime change? We were told

it wasn't about regime change, but perhaps the Iranians could rise up and make it about

regime change. And then the regime was changed at least altered when 40-plus leaders,

including Supreme Leader Hamine, were killed in strikes. Ali, start on the personal level with

you. What do you want? Well, first of all, what I can say as an Iranian,

whenever that there is a war against Iran, we are seeing that the sense of patriotism

emerged between the people. When there is a war, there is a foreign enemy is attacking your country,

attacking your, I mean, infrastructure, attacking your, I mean, army. The reasons,

festival, the first thing that everyone's wants is to stop that war, but also we have heard that

from some parts of the Iranian diaspora outside Iran, inviting the United States or other

countries to attack Iran, to hit Iran, to have some changes. But what I want as an Iranian,

I think that when there is a war against your country and the purpose of that war,

going to be, as they have said, that changing in the regime, always through the regime,

another thing that this is a wise way to have the change from outside. We all know the experiences

that the United States, what have done to Iraq, what that they have done to Afghanistan,

and their people are suffering until this very day, due to the consequences of the war

that was raised by the United States of America against those countries. What you are saying

from the assassination of a Supreme Leader of another country, do you think that it's somehow

a little bit? I'm not like we're going to say that it was a clear relation of the international law.

So I think that the situation is quite complicated, even in this situation, you know, that's what we

have experienced during the beginning of the January, the clashes and the protests that we have had,

due to the economic difficulties. Also, what we have heard that there have been some

contacts between President Trump and also some courtish groups invest some part of Iran.

So there are going to be many fears between the Iranians that maybe there is some kind of,

willingness from the United States of America, from Israel, in order to activate those terrorist

groups in order to take control different parts of Iran and this going to lead to this association

of my country. It sounds like what you're saying is the Iranian people were bravely,

courageously, you know, rising up thousands were killed after that uprising and it sounds like

you're, and that was because of the economic situation there, and now it sounds like I'm hearing

anger from you, these reports that we're hearing that the CIA is working with Kurdish militants

as they would call them to cross into the border and foment a popular uprising.

You're saying to the words you're using to describe those Kurdish militants is terrorists,

and it feels as if this opportunity for Iranians to finally take over their future is being undermined.

First of all, yes, they are separate groups that they do not have even influence inside

the other provinces of Iran. They do not have any supporters in size, for example,

Tehran or other big cities, Iranian big cities. This doesn't seem any so-called revolution.

It's somehow we can call that a coup, a coup d'état against the Iranian government.

So, this situation when the people, the ordinary citizens of the Iranian,

or the ordinary citizens, doesn't have any rule to play in this kind of campaign.

It doesn't seem that they're going to be in the favor of deriving people.

Yeah. Look, Ali, we can't believe you said to us just a little while back,

oh, we're being attacked again. Call me back in five minutes.

As if, you know, there had been a car accident or something.

Are you afraid? I know you are a country that's used to hearing

attacks, but are you afraid that you go outside?

What's your life like?

First of all, I'm afraid of losing my family. Yesterday, I have lost one of my friends.

He was passing by one of the Iranian streets and suddenly the attack to a police station

and due to that attack, he had been killed. We are living under under a, I mean,

daily attacks by the American and also the Israeli air forces.

And this is quite interesting for me that that friend of mine,

more unfortunately, has been killed, but due to that attack,

was one of the participants in the uprising that you called during the beginning of the

January. And he had been detained. He had been detained by the police at that time.

And now we have been killed by the American or maybe the Israeli forces.

So at this situation, yes, we are afraid of anything, maybe attacks, maybe,

I mean, the chaotic situation because of the continuation of these daily attacks.

And the people are asking, okay, how, how going to be the end of these attacks?

The big fear that we have, we are now living with is the fear of future,

that how is going to be the future of the Iranian nation?

Yeah. I guess I haven't, I haven't asked you this. Are you on a new level glad

that this has happened, that Homenay and other top leaders have been killed?

Is, I mean, we are hearing from Iranians in the diaspora who are overjoyed.

Yes, first of all, I think that's my personal view. It isn't important because you have to

look at the Iranian society. The first thing that I have to say that, as you know,

that attacking an assassination, this is not a killing, it was really a assassination

of the leader of another country is in violation of the international law.

And the second thing, the second thing, which is really important for me,

where we can remember that the how was the reaction of the diaspora of other countries that

have been attacked by the United States of America. If you go and talk directly to the

Iranian position, they are saying that what we have wanted for the during all campaign against

the number of Republicans around, what we have said and what we have insisted on, it was some kind

of reformation from inside by the Iranian people, not with the intervention of different countries.

So my view, I'm totally, I'm not, first of all, I'm not glad, but I think I'm, I'm totally angry

about what happens one day you stand up and you see that the attacks to the presidential palace,

the assassinated your leader. And now they are saying that, okay, we came here to have a regime

change for who are you to change our regime? What, how can you, how can you consider for yourself

that you have this authority to go and decide for the other nations?

Yeah. And as we will reiterate, you're not someone who was, you know, a vocal supporter

of the regime. Look, I just, how are you getting food? How is money working? Who's running the

country? Who picks up garbage? You worried about your children? Do you have safe rooms? I mean,

how are you living daily? Well, the daily life hasn't been changed, at least until this very now,

everything is going on. The administrative branch of the governments are working.

I mean, collecting the garbage or maybe other things. I don't know who is the person that who is

in charge, but what we have heard from the media, from the state television, that there is a

leadership council, which is in charge for the administration of the country. And what I can

say about the daily life, nothing has been changed until this very now, except the sounds of

explosions, the killing, being killed, some of your friends, and the, I mean, consequences of

the war that we're all living. Yeah. Are people leaving? Are people trying to get out?

Living the city, you mean? Yeah. Since the, I mean, initial hours of the war, yes, we have

seen the people living the city. And also, there was a statement by the Iranian government,

which advised the people to leave the city, particularly Toronto, you've said that based on

our information, it's going to be a continuous operation by the United States of America,

so it's better to leave the state safe. But since the confirmation of the passing away of the

Iranian Supreme Leader, we have seen, I mean, returning of the people to the Tehran,

now every night, there are some pro-governments gatherings, rallies inside Tehran,

it was in contrary from what we have had during June, because at that time, I think 19 person of

the Tehran's population left the city, but now this is in contrast, simultaneously, with the

attacks and bombardment of the city, we are seeing the rallies during the nights in supporting the

governments. Supporting the government, and as you said, maybe the same people who might have

been protesting the government just weeks ago. Yes, exactly. And as I said, that the situation,

the atmosphere of Tehran is quite complicated. No one going to understand that what is going to

happen, you are seeing the bombardment at the same time, you are seeing these gatherings and the

rallies in supporting and in the condemnation of war. And with the civilian casualties,

the situation, what I can see here, the situation is going to change in favor of the governments.

Yeah, Ali Safari speaking to us from Tehran, thank you so much and we just wish you the best

possible, you know, please stay well, stay safe. Thank you, thank you so much, thank you,

and thank you for this time that you gave me.

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