The Trump Put Has Arrived

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The 3rd annual Bitcoin Investor Week is returning to NYC on February 9th - 13th. This is the largest gathering of serious bitcoin investors in the world. 2,500+ people are expected this year.

Speakers include Jan van Eck, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, Anthony Scaramucci, Matt Cole, Caitlin Long, Dan Tapiero, Mark Yusko, Brandon Lutnick, Fred Thiel, and many others.

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To investors,

The bears have been in control of financial markets over the last few days. The S&P 500 is down 2.5% over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq is down 4% during the same timeframe. Bitcoin is down 5% over the last week.

It has been a sea of flashing red numbers for a week.

But have no fear, the Trump Put is here. The President of the United States of America decided to come out swinging on Sunday morning with a Truth Social post promising a $2,000 “tariff dividend” to every US citizen who isn’t a high-income earner.

You didn’t think the President who measures the health of the US economy based on the stock market was going to sit around and let the bears take a victory lap, did you?

Now will the tariff dividends happen? I have no idea. Polymarket odds are only at 15% right now.

Another question is whether it matters if the tariff dividends actually happen? I don’t think so. The Trump Put already had its intended effect.

It only took this one social media post to completely change the direction of travel for asset prices. Stocks and bitcoin have surged higher as enthusiasm returned to the market.

This is the Trump Put. He has consistently made announcements that influenced the stock market at opportune times. You may remember his social media post saying “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” right before the market bottomed in April of this year. Trump backed down from his 100% tariff threat on China about an hour before futures opened on Sunday night a few weeks ago. And yesterday, amid all the panic and fear, the shining light on the hill was a simple promise from the leader of the free world to send out billions of dollars in stimulus checks.

Are stimulus checks a good idea for the long term health of the US economy? Of course not. Does anyone care right now? Not really. People are too focused on the short-term fears of a stock bubble or a perceived incoming bitcoin bear market.

Most people think if the President wants to hand out $2,000 to millions of citizens, especially right after a socialist agenda was voted into power in NYC due to affordability issues, then let the man hand out the money. It is complete disregard for the long-term strength of the economy and the devaluation of the US dollar.

Remember, inflation can only be created in Washington DC and a fast way to increase the odds of high inflation is to hand out thousands of dollars to hundreds of millions of people.

But this Trump Put is not the only thing likely to drive asset prices higher through the end of the year. We already know clarity on the China trade deal is coming. We also saw the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second time in the same number of meetings. And now Polymarket is showing the odds improving of the government shutdown being resolved before November 15th.

Sunday morning started out with a 62% odds of the shutdown being resolved after November 16th, but throughout the last 24 hours those odds plummeted to only 7%. A big reason for this change is the report last night that an agreement was reached in the Senate that would see enough Democrats step across the aisle and vote for the government to reopen.

If we get the government shutdown behind us, you should expect stocks and bitcoin to go higher quickly. Opening Bell Daily’s Phil Rosen writes “The US has seen 21 shutdowns in the last 50 years and the S&P 500 has gained 1.2% one month later and 2.9% three months later on average. Stocks are almost always higher after a government shutdown.”

Altcoin Gordon shows that bitcoin rallied 50% in 3 months coming out of the last government shutdown as well.

So what is going to happen here? No one knows. We are all trying to predict an unknowable future. But what I have learned in the last 5 or 6 years is to trust the vibes. Trust the sentiment. Trust the animal spirits.

Whatever you want to call it. How people feel about the market tends to determine how the market performs. And last week was a great example. The fear porn and negative takes were obvious. Folks were predicting the next bitcoin bear market or the end of the stock market rally.

But this week is already different. We just needed the promise of some stimulus checks to get everyone giddy again. And if everyone is giddy, capital will flow into the market lifting asset prices.

I am not the smartest guy in the world, but I know not to fade the Trump Put.

We got the put yesterday morning. Asset prices are responding. And the bull market is back on again.

Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Jordi Visser Explains Bitcoin, Tesla, AI, and the Shifting Political Landscape

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation, we discuss Bitcoin’s “IPO moment” — why investors are feeling disappointed, what’s really happening beneath the surface, and how these dynamics could reshape portfolios in the months ahead. Jordi also shares his perspective on Tesla, artificial intelligence, and the shifting political landscape — explaining how the New York City mayor race and overall market sentiment could influence the next phase of global investing.

Enjoy!

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