The Pirates Don’t Need Flash From Mitch Keller. They Need This.

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2:01Be sure to subscribe if you haven't already, but we're going to jump in today. I was going to talk about Mitch Keller, regardless today, because I had a good conversation with him in Braydenton. And the fact that he had a bad spring start isn't going to deter that for me, because spring training starts don't really matter. You're working on things you want to work on, and yeah, that was a rough one out there for, but was probably a penultimate spring start for him. He's probably got to do one more, just looking at the schedule. Yeah, not a great start. Six runs, some hard hit balls, a couple homers. It is what it is. Earlier this month, whenever I was in Braydenton, I did talk to him because I noticed that the pitch mix that he had was very different from the Mitch Keller of a couple years ago. The Mitch Keller that was an all star in 2023. The Mitch Keller that had solidified himself in 2024,

3:012025 as a middle of the rotation guy. And it's, some of it's easy to see like, hey, the cutter is pretty much gone. It's still on the back pocket. He could go back to it if he wants to do that, but it's really not there. We haven't seen a lot of the gyro slider this spring. And this guy who had at one point, it felt like seven, eight pitches, has really been rolling with four seam, sinker, sweeper, change up curveball. And the last two are really against left handers. It's a very different pitch mix. And in the conversation that Mitch and I had, he dropped this one just to kind of wrap it up. It's like, quote, it's differently different. You have to adapt. It's definitely different. You have to adapt. That's in reference to his pitch mix. And maybe it's a little bit of a sports,

4:03you know, cliche or anything, but I do like that mindset. And it's not just terms of, in terms of the mix, it's in terms of a lot of the approach. Because last year, the change up was a project for him. He really needed to get that pitch back. He relied on the cutter too much against left handed hitters. And we know the results that he had against left handers in 2024. They weren't good. So he revamped the change up. He starts throwing the curveball more to left handers. And he talked about how he wanted to get the inverted break. Down to about zero. Just like gravity. Move the pitch. This year, it wasn't really a project. But he wanted to find something repeatable, something that felt good out of the hand. And it moves differently. And it kills some spin. And it's looking like a positive pitch. But then my mind kind of went like,

5:04you know, why do you mess with something that kind of worked? And then I looked at Keller's results. The results against left handers. Because just eyeballing it, you know, watching all those games last year, it's like, yeah, he's doing better. Except he really didn't. 2024. 268 batting average against against left handers. 2025. 270. For the analytical side, 347. Woba. Weighted on base average against left handers in 2024. 343. 2025. They were remarkably similar results. And neither that good. Like, they need someone like Keller in this rotation. They need someone who can just handle innings. You know, a reliable hand. And outside of pulsing,

6:05there's only guy on this 40-man roster right now who has thrown 150 professional winnings in a season. Now, I suspect, you know, like, Bubba Chandler will probably cross that threshold this year. And I wouldn't be shocked if, like, Braxton or Hunter Barco or someone like that, you know, who maybe not has hit that mark in the past, but they're going to need those innings from somewhere. Keller is a big part of that. It's why going into the off season, I impressed upon the point that, hey, you can't just ditch this guy. Maybe he's costing a little more than what a team with the, you know, the pirates with the payroll they have. Maybe they're allocating a bit too much of their resources to one pitcher who's arguably, there's a chance Mitch Keller is going to be like the four in this rotation. If like Jared Jones comes back healthy and Bubba takes a step forward, or Braxton takes a step forward. Like, there is a scenario where Mitch Keller is not in the front half of this rotation.

7:06I think that says more about, you know, the young arms the pirates have than does about Mitch. But there is that scenario. Why do you pay him that much? Well, because you need someone who is going to handle, you know, this rotation, the guy who's not going to screw over the bullpen. You know, if he has a bad start, I'm going to wear it. I think that's why the ERA has been inflated a little bit the last couple of years. Last year was a bit different that he did not get off to the super hot start. But the trade-off was, he held the pace a whole lot better than he did in 23 and 24 where he was an all-star in 23. I would argue just as good in 24 in the first half of the season. And then both years he's faltered in the second half. That didn't happen in 25. He was just a pretty steady. I'm going to give you my six innings of three-run ball. We are going to get a quality start out of this outing. But it's not going to be as sexy as it probably was a year or two ago.

8:09Obviously, there's something to be said about consistency. There's something to be said about wanting that high. I'm not advocating, you know, which way is better. But back of the baseball card has three ERAs that are all remarkably similar to each other. So, but it's not the same picture. It's not the same pitch mix. It's not the same attack plan. We're going to touch on that in a minute here, but I'm going to throw it to Cody for a second. This episode is brought to you by IQBAR, our exclusive snack hydration sponsor. IQBAR protein bars, IQBIX hydration mixes, and IQJo mushroom coffees are the delicious, low sugar, brain and body fuel you need to win your day. The ultimate sampler pack is a great way for you to try all IQBAR products and flavors. You get nine IQBars, eight IQ mix sticks, and four IQJo sticks.

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10:15It's also a different approach. Keller is saying that he was not really looking for a project this off season, whatever I was referencing the change up, because it was in the 24 off season. It kind of struck me because he is a tinkerer. Whenever things weren't going well in 2022, the thought was, well, let's add a sinker. Let's see what that does to the pitch mix. As we know, it made other pitches play up. It made his stuff just move better. It gave him a different way to attack. It gave him a sense of confidence. If you want to just look at it at the most basic level, like that day that he had in Dodger Stadium where he was just throwing sinkers, it showed like, I can just let it ride. And that's good. That was kind of the vibe I was getting, whenever he was talking about the change up, and what he was been working on this year, about how he's looking for something that's repeatable,

11:17how he's looking for something that feels good out of the hand, how he's looking for something that's, he trusts the metrics enough of where he had as a baseline. It's like, okay, let's pitch to feel a little bit. And the change up, he's killing spin, he's getting drop, he's doing a lot of things that you want the change up to do. It has the Velo separation from the fastball. It's like, okay, that pitch could work. The curveball can have 12 to 6. He can work north to south against left-handed hitters. The same way that I was advocating it for Carmen Maginski, it can kind of do that the same too. We haven't seen a lot of the gyros slider, but you know, he could sweep to right-handers. We also saw him sweep a little more against left-handers as the year progressed last year, something that I think benefited him, as he was crossing the finish line in September. He started to use that as a weapon a little more. Like, I still think north to south against left-handers is the best call, but he showed that he had a confidence

12:18that he can, you know, ride it into left-handed hitters and still get out. That's all part of adaptation. That's all part of growing. And what you want to see from someone who is entering his seventh full major league season. Eighth, I guess, if you want to count the cameo in 2019. This is a team that has upside in the rotation, but Keller is maybe not as exciting as a lot of these other pitchers. He's not going to hit 100 like Jones and Bubba Chandler is. He doesn't have as big a slayer as I think Braxton does, and he's not a Saiyong winner like Paul Skains does. Like, I don't know if Mitch Keller is going to replicate it all star season again. I don't think they need that from him, though.

13:18They need that steady hand. And if he is relying on feel a little more, I think that shows more just the confidence that he has and the stuff and the attack plan that he has. Like, that start I saw him throw up there. He, him throwing right on right changeups. I don't think he threw a right on right changeup all last year. I don't think it's going to be a major part of his attack plan, but it's just the show that he has the confidence in the pitch. I know it's an exhibition. I know it's the time of year when you are supposed to just experiment, see what feels good, see what works well. How do pitches play off of each other? That's good. I like just seeing the confidence in general, because this is a guy who is a leader in the clubhouse. He's a leader in the rotation. He doesn't have to have the low three, but they need the 170 innings out of him. 180 innings.

14:18And if he can handle left handers, finally, great. Maybe he can regain that all star form. But I think at a certain point you kind of just understand this is who this picture is. And the parts need that picture right now. The rotation needs steady hands. He can be that type of guy. It's a different Mitch Keller than what we saw a couple years ago. Some would call it an adaptation. He would. Thank you so much for listening to Offbeat here on North Shore 9, presented by Fandall. Are you sure to subscribe? Where are you find five podcasts? We're here also. We will talk again tomorrow. All right, that wraps up this episode of North Shore 9. Thanks so much for tuning in. Whether you're listening on the podcast or catching us on YouTube. If you enjoyed the show, please give this video a thumbs up. And don't forget to hit that subscribe button if you haven't already.

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