The Middle East Report with James Dorsey

0:00The Middle East Report with James Dorsi on Sabah, Hulu, Muslim. 747 A.M. It is joining us for the Middle East Report, James Dorsi, award-winning scholar journalist with a different perspective on the Middle East. You can follow James on his various social media handles, the turbulent world of Middle East Asaka. A good day to you James, thank you for joining us. Good morning, it's always a pleasure to be with you. James getting into our discussion from a very busy and turbulent, indeed part of the world, Iran's refusal to bow down to Donald Trump's demand constitutes the first serious challenge to the U.S. President's might is right foreign policy. I mean, this is no Venezuela, Iran refusing to bow down and willing to take the region

1:03down with it, it seems. Iran is gone where no other country, including Venezuela and NATO allied Denmark, has been willing to go in challenging Trump's might makes right foreign policy and refusing to bow to Trump's demands. Iran took the risk of a military confrontation. It was betting that Trump would want a quick strike that would not entangle the United States in a protracted conflict and potentially force it to put boots on the ground. It was a miscalculation. Nevertheless, it was a risk Iran and its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei willingly shouldered, Khamenei paid for the gamble with his life. Now Iran's best bet is to expand the war in the belief that this will increase pressure on Turkey to end the war. That too is risky. Iran may not have the military wherewithal to maintain its attacks on neighboring countries,

2:03given the massive U.S. and Israeli bombings. In the end, it could be not only his own life that Khamenei put at risk, but the life of Iran itself. James, U.S. and Israeli targeting of Iranian military and IRGC facilities in Kurdish-populated areas. Now, this is primarily in the northwest of the country. And maneuvering ethnic militants, Kurds, Balouj, who are in the southwest, Adams, who are basically all over the country, suggest the fostering of ethnic unrest is part of the U.S. and Israeli strategy. The U.S. and Israeli focus on Kurdish and Azeri-populated areas is part of Israel's targeting of Iran's internal security apparatus, which in January open fire on demonstrators and killed thousands in one of the deadliest crackdowns on protesters worldwide in decades. The targeting of security forces is designed to create a space for renewed mass anti-government

3:08protests. At the same time, the targeting enhances the risk of power of a power vacuum that could encourage ethnic minority insurgencies. U.S. officials in the Iraqi Kurdish capital of Erbil met in recent days with a newly formed coalition of armed, Iraqi-based Iranian Kurdish groups. In the clearest indication that the Trump administration may support ethnic minority aspirations, skeptical of U.S. reliability, the coalition demanded in the meeting with U.S. officials that the United States create a no-fly zone about Kurdish regions to cover their operations and demonstrate the United States' commitment. James, so far, the U.S. and Israel have refrained from attacking Iranian oil installations, whatever the intention is and whether they were to see oil on the market or whatever, bombing those installations would likely put the country back by decades in oil production.

4:11That could change if far-right supporters of Israel close to the Trump administration get their way. Packed Gulf oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the United States and Israel have been careful not to target Iranian energy installations. Keeping Iranian facilities intact has drawn criticism from far-right supporters of Israel in the United States. They argue that taking out Iran's main oil export terminal on Harg Island would deprive the Islamic Republic of its main source of revenue. It would also strike at the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC, which is believed to own half of Iran's $50 billion oil industry. The U.S. officials fear that hitting Iran's oil industry would starkly drive up oil prices and put gas, Gulf facilities at greater risk than they already are with Qatar having shut

5:13down production of its liquefied natural gas. Finally, on the discussion, James Yemen's Houthis are currently at a crossroads. Do they join the Frey, they've done so in the past on behalf of their ally Iran, or do they also assist Iran in restricting shipping in their area, or at this time, do they abandon their partner and look at their own aspirations in Yemen and concentrate things internally? Your thoughts on that, James? The coming days will indicate whether Yemen's Houthi rebels will stick to their alliance with Iran, or decide to remain on the sidelines of the Yemen war. So far, the Houthis have limited themselves to statements, despite the fact that Iran has announced the closure of the strategic strait of Hamuz and threatened to attack any vessel that attempts to traverse the waterway.

6:15In the past, the Houthis have attacked international shipping and targets in Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza. The risk for the Houthis putting their money where their mouth is is possibly greater than it ever was. Like with hisbola, Israel would likely respond to Houthi attacks on Israel with greater ferocity than it has in the past. In addition, Saudi Arabia has warned the Houthis against attacks on international shipping, or targets in the kingdom. The Houthis are unlikely to want to put their four-year ceasefire with Saudi Arabia and the Yemen war at risk and may not want that to do so with the truth with the United States that they concluded in September of last year. On the contrary, the Houthis may see not joining the fray as leverage in future negotiations. James Dawsey, thank you for your time.

7:16This morning for us out of South Africa and have a good rest of your weekend ahead of you, James. Thank you. Thank you for having me and all the best.