The Latest on the Long Lost Fed

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4w7lcrl

The episode focuses on the Federal Reserve as Jerome Powell’s chair term approaches its May 15, 2026 end and President Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, nears confirmation. The main hurdle had been a DOJ criminal investigation into alleged cost overruns at the Fed building renovation, which Senator Thom Tillis and other Republicans cited as grounds to pause Walsh’s nomination; the attorney general later dropped the criminal probe and referred the matter to the Fed inspector general, clearing the way for Senate Banking Committee action and a full Senate vote. Prediction markets and fed funds futures quickly repriced, with the probability of no rate cuts this year falling to about 62% and a meaningful chance of one cut remaining. David expects Warsh to argue oil is a supply shock outside monetary inflation, prioritize labor-market risks, and pair any rate cuts with tighter balance-sheet policy and reduced QE to improve price discovery and long-run market credibility.

00:00 Fed Returns to Spotlight

01:58 Powell Replacement Timeline

03:20 DOJ Probe and Senate Standoff

04:37 Investigation Dropped Breakthrough

06:52 Markets Reprice Rate Cuts

08:06 Forward Guidance and New Chair Uncertainty

10:43 Warsh Case for Cutting Rates

12:24 Balance Sheet Over Fed Funds

14:02 QE Exit and Fiscal Discipline

16:18 Market Credibility and Reform Hopes

18:18 Wrap Up and Next Week Preview

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

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