The Larry Kudlow Show | 03-07-26

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1:06Let me just begin by saying you can you can get this show on over the internet. You're good live streamers. It'll help you hear it better. You can live stream us, larrycudlowshow.com. larrycudlowshow.com. You can get us all across the country and around the world throughout the solar system, including the Milky Way. And please join us during the week, my little pledge here, fabulous Fox Business Network, FBN. Name the shows, Cudlow. Every day, every day Monday through Friday, four to five p.m., and if you can't make it at four, I just text your favorite nine year old. She'll show you how to DVR the show, DVR the show, and you'll never miss a thing. Fox Business. So I want to divide this up the first half hour of the show. There's two points that I want to make here. One is the absolutely crucial point

2:15that America and Israel destroy the regime in Iran, all of its nuclear capabilities, all of its missile capabilities. Its army, its navy, whatever it may have, everything drones, launchers, you name it. It's a rogue nation. It's the world's greatest terrorist nation. Let's last week, last Saturday, the war broke out, and we did our best to cover it here on this show. And this past week, of course, on the TV show, we've spent enormous amount of time on the war. I want to say at the top, and then I'm going to talk about the Straits of Hormuz and oil, and how to get around that. I had the Treasury Secretary Scott Besson was on the TV show last night.

3:18Good man, friend of mine. I pushed it hard for that job because I didn't want it. Anyway, Mr. Trump's Operation Epic Fury will change the course of history. That's the key point. He has done what no president in the last 47 years was going to do, which is to stop the terrorist enemy of western civilization, namely Iran. And they're mollas. And it is absolutely essential that he's succeed in this and Israel and Israel. And the opportunity, the opportunity to change history with our military might, with our intelligence, with our democratic values, with our western civilization preservation, the opportunity to succeed

4:29in this is enormous. And when we do succeed, he can bring peace and freedom and prosperity, peace, freedom and prosperity, not only to the Middle East, but frankly to the rest of the world, to the rest of the world. This is a kin to the Berlin Wall coming down. My former boss, I've blessed in my lifetime to have worked for Reagan and for Trump. As a young, young man, I was deputy budget director, OMB director, president Reagan's first term. As an older guy, I ran the National Economic Council president Trump in his first term. But I'm saying, just as Reagan fought communism and did what everybody said could never be done,

5:30bring down Soviet communism. Reagan did it. Peace through strength. The wall came down. The iron country, the iron curtain countries were liberated. The iron curtain countries were liberated. Mr. Trump is doing essentially the same historical thing. In his first term, he destroyed ISIS, the terrorist group, destroyed them. Never got enough credit. And the second term, he determined to destroy Iran. Not the people of Iran, the 90 million some odd people. But the bloodthirsty insane mollus and revolutionary guard and military police and whoever it is,

6:31killing 35,000 people in order to stay in power, utter insanity, leading terrorism, trying to kill president Trump on several occasions, trying to kill Pompeo, trying to kill Robert O'Brien, all friends of mine. We worked together in the cabinet, trying to destroy Israel, unleashing terrorism throughout the Middle East and the world. Trump can take it down the way he took ISIS down. The war is seven days old and we're way ahead of schedule and he's doing fabulously well. An even bigger bombing mission is about to hit. They're lining up the phenomenon. What is it? B1s and B2s? I don't even know all this stuff in the England. And it's going to come. And what's left is going to be destroyed. And it must be destroyed. The people of Iran must be able to rise up. Unconditional surrender. We'll talk about this as the show goes on. My point is how important this mission is to the future of the world,

7:35to the future of the world. Make no mistake. He is doing, Mr. Trump is doing what no other president would do in the past 50 years, including Reagan. And that is go after Iran. Because they're criminals and terrorists and heathens. Take out their nuclear capability, their missile building, their terror financing, their military. You imagine they've already killed some 35,000 people just to remain in power. It's a crime against humanity. The foremost terrorism sponsoring state is about to cease to exist, cease to exist. And I'll quote by Paul Conrad Black, great newspaper man, up in Canada, writing in the New York Sun this past week where I also write,

8:39the world's foremost terrorism sponsoring state is about to cease to exist. And the war on terror that was unofficially launched on September 11th, 2001, in the ashes of the World Trade Center. Will substantially be won. This is not a forever war as these left wing Democrats, actually all Democrats, except John Fetterman and Handful, forever war that Mr. Trump, the forever war that Mr. Trump has involved is the war Iran has been waging on the United States and its allies for 47 years. That's the, Mr. Trump is in the business of ending the war. And as far as the war powers resolution, thankfully it was defeated in the House

9:39and the Senate. Am I right about that? Somebody will have to choke me. I don't, I think it was. Anyway, it was defeated now. He is in compliance with the war powers resolution. You notified Congress, you notified the group of eight. He's keeping him up to date. He has 60 days to conduct warfare and another 30 days to disengage if Congress so desires. And I hope they don't, they'll lose. He's exercising his, his prerogatives, his commander in chief. There's no argument. The Democrats are on the wrong side. The Democrats are on the side of supporting Iran. It's a remarkable, remarkable insanity from that party. This is not a forever war. This is ending a forever war. Indeed, but Trump is doing is changing the architecture of the whole world's balance of power. The losers are China and Russia. The winners are the West, the US, Israel.

10:45By the way, the winners are the Sunni Gulf states which have sided with America. The winners are going to be the new South America with Trump's getting rid of Maduro in Venezuela. The winners will be the whole Western hemisphere pushing China out. What Mr. Trump is doing, it's breathtaking, but it is unleashing the powers of democracy and freedom and Western civilization values. Once and for all. Once and for all. This is about freedom. This is about democracy. This is not about nation-building. Not about nation-building. That's up to the Iranian people. It's about the removal of an evil terrorist regime and they will be removed and it's going to happen sooner rather than later. God bless.

11:51Sooner rather than later. All these bumps in the road, all prices, stocks, it's all be fixed. It's all be fixed. Might, the might of America. The patently good intentions of America. We don't want to take over their countries but we want to throw out the evil terrorist cancers that those countries have harbored and coddled and enabled all these years. There are a bunch of thugs. Mr. Trump is going to get rid of them. The American might will do the job. I am completely committed to it. This is an incredibly important battle. And I pray. I pray every day for his Mr. Trump success. I pray for America's success. I pray for Israel's success. I pray for the success

12:56of freedom and prosperity around the world. We're going to take a break. I'm going to come back and talk to you about this straight of hormones and oil and energy prices and other nicks and nacks. We have a fabulous lineup today of guests one after another. I'm Cudlow. Please stick around. We'll be right back. The Larry Cudlow Show on the Red Apple podcast network. Here we'll visit all price over the course of the show but I just want to say in terms of the importance of the mission. Let's do not panic over this temporary blip in all prices. Now look at this whole thing is about the straight of hormones. All right. The Iranians didn't close it. The Iranians didn't close it. I mean the Iranian Navy is at the bottom of the Persian Gulf.

13:58It's about 30 ships. They may have a couple motorboats with rifles in hormones but that's all they got. The issue here and stay with me on this please was insurance because when the war broke out insurance companies that ensure oil tankers these big super tankers right to travel through the strait of hormones and then distribute oil around the world. The issue was war risk and basically Lloyd's of London the biggest insurer you know they pulled their contract they pulled the contract up. Is it no we have to tear it up and going to charge you much much much more if you're going to go through the strait. And of course you know the owners of the tankers you know they have to protect their crews. So Iran didn't close it. It's just that the liabilities the insurance liabilities were too substantial. Now look this is solvable and we're going to solve

15:03it. Right. Yes I had to stop messing on Treasury man. Yesterday we announced that the development finance corporations, the American company government company. Yes sometimes you have to use governments. The old OPEC we turned it in the first term into this development finance corporation. This thing will will guarantee and ensure and re-insure at moderate prices these tankers and we hope to be mostly American tankers but I know mostly Greek tankers and so forth and so on. But it was announced yes in president himself said it a while back that he would order the U.S. Development Finance Court to provide a reasonable price I'm reading from truth social. Political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade

16:04especially energy traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all shipping lines and if necessary the U.S. Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. No matter what the U.S. will ensure the free flow of energy to the world. The United States economic and military might is the greatest on earth. Okay so this is very important but we're going to do the Gantan. All right and if this can happen fast I talk to you know Scott Besson and then the sent-com the Navy will be involved. What I'd like to see I guess I mean I'm not a Navy guy but what I'd like to see is you know naval ships at the two ends of the of the Strait and then let a naval ship or two accompany the tankers through. Once the world sees that okay the risk premium is going to start to come down. Once the world sees 20 percent we don't you know it's funny we the world is oversupply with oil I'm going to talk about drill

17:07baby drill and be later in the show we have so much oil but this Hormuz has become a psychological barrier and the oil markets have just gone up 30 dollars so you got from 60 dollars to 90 dollars on West Texas and Brent crude okay this can be fixed by just reopening it get a string you know a whole bunch of these tankers get them through there let the world see it you'll gradually knock the oil price down from 90 about dollars just you know 80 to 70 and then the war is going to be over in a couple weeks pray pray the world be over in a couple weeks and we'll be back to 55 to 60 so what am I saying here at the top I'm saying we're going to fix Hormuz all prices going to come down and stock prices are going to go up and those are big themes of the show today I'm Cudlow and we're coming right back with Brent fellow culbage former Navy Army intelligence please stick

18:10around folks so much to do on the Red Apple podcast network right now new fan duel customers can get up to 300 dollars back in bonus bets every day for 10 days place a tournament bet using the token and if it doesn't win you'll get up to 300 dollars back in bonus bets every single day for 10 days straight you can even mix things up with same game parlay is for a shot at a bigger pale fan duel it's time to dance 21 plus and president select states bonus bets are not with drawball and expire seven days after receive tokens are received an increments of one per day restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem called 1-800-Gamber this is a Larry Cudlow show entertaining and informative on the Red Apple podcast network unconditional surrender is what mr trump is now asking for any ran reminds of ulysses s grant in 1864 during the civil war very important because it forces the action

19:16and takes away options we're not dealing with him anymore and he wants to pick a new leader i think he has every right to that's what my takes let's talk to bren velikovic there's a former special option intelligence agent for the army he's the founder of power us right you are so good on tv i had to have you back on radio i appreciate you so good now tell me what do you think of this uh declaration of unconditional surrender and you know along with that uh that president uh is insisting that he have a hand in any new leader that develops anywhere in well i think it's proof that the president has just about full control over that country and uh that's going to be that's going to include choosing whoever the future leader is so we ensure that ron can never again threaten american interests and i i think that's that's important we just about own that entire airspace and the us forces just delivered another knockout blow we struck instead of blaze irons prized your own

20:17carrier ship yesterday it's this massive loading platform roughly the size of a world war two aircraft carrier loaded with uavs meant to swarm our ships and bases and it's on fire it's gone i did know that i did not know this when was this this was this was yesterday i believe it was in the indian ocean and that's not just one ship that's their that's part of their prized fleet uh i don't think they even realized we even knew about it and uh i'm not sure what ships they even have left most of the navies at the bottom of the Persian Gulf they that's why you know if you get the insurance story fixed as we're doing there's no reason why the strait of her most can't be reopened for these all tankers well yeah i mean they've been talking for a while uh about the iranians and how they have this capability to shut down the straits and we talked about it before in your program if the u.s military went into this operation knowing that that was going to be the first thing that they were going to try and do they've been planning on that for years and so what are

21:20they supposed to block the straits with their navies gone no ships basically left in the Gulf missile barrage is are down 90 percent thanks to our b two stealth bombers dropping two thousand pound bunker blusters on their hidden launchers and uh and and what is the ron have left look that you know it's important to understand their entire military strategy still revolves today around drones and missiles they know they can't compete with the united states or israel with traditional air naval power anymore but you know when we took out their their drone carrier that's uh that wasn't just symbolic right that representative on strategy to project drone warfare far behind beyond its coastline and they can't do that anymore so it sends a clear message you want to build all these new platforms to threaten global shipping lanes or american forces we're going to destroy it before you can use it um unconditional surrender what's that mean to was that what was that mean to Iran in your in your judgment you're an intel guy i mean this is a you know this is psychology i think it's very important psychology uh what does that tell you

22:25well it tells me that the president is tired of talk um for how long we've been negotiating with your audience and they continue to play these games over and over and they push us up to the red line we don't do anything about it and that's over there's no more talking so they want to probably come in and negotiate this and that and try and uh keep what's left of their hard liners at the top that are completely you know have have generally just lost control and probably there's some back channeling going on where uh they want to create some conditions that we will stop crushing them that the time for that is over that was that was months ago president trump already throws diplomacy first he chose it as the first tool not the last tool and so unconditionally they need to surrender and and and and give up otherwise we're waiting our time again and going into just random talks i think it's an important point you're making i mean president you know talked

23:29about he talked about talking he talked about making a deal for many many many weeks and this he sent you know Jared Kushner and so forth and they tried and mark out your rubio tried and i mean he gave his best shot that he gave diplomacy his best shot before he you know brought the hammer down all right he he exhausted nearly every diplomatic effort down to even the very last minute before this military auction but as usual Iran chose defiance over piece they continue to play games with us as if we weren't paying attention as if our intelligence services didn't see them trying to reconstitute their nuclear program in secret as if we just all of a sudden are going to whistle pass their decades of evil or or aren't watching them building long range missiles that were designed to kill Americans they've had this 40 year plus track record pushing right up to the line and betting that we won't respond and so i think this week is proof that we're not going to abandon our red lines anymore and we're going to enforce it with overwhelming military might in this case to ensure Iran can't rebuild its nuclear sites or threaten

24:34Israel or the or the Gulf ever again as i understand it watching this down through the years and especially now but if you go back to last summer the bombing mission uh by uh american israel so the the Iranians want right right back they start beavering back again uh to fix up their defenses to hide their uranium to even rescue some of the nuclear facility they didn't stop i mean they took the hit and then they started up again and i i think we knew that and that was part of the you know why we have to do what we have to do today this is this is the problem they publicly talk as if everything's peace and and act as if they're moving one way but behind the scenes covertly they are at war with us and they've been at war with us for years i nearly was killed by Iranian missiles that ripped through the building i was living in in Baghdad we were there hunting al-Qaeda and ISIS not the Iranians they were at war with us then and they've continued to be at

25:38war with us and frankly it it enough to enough right and that's why in the background of all of this leading up to this operation we also built the most formidable and largest american military force in that region in decades and that was more firepower than terran has ever seen because we we were watching what they were doing behind the scenes and building up and clearly even working with other countries like russia to try and build up their defenses and ballistic missiles and the our intel services see that the israeli intel services see that and what is most impressive to me is that really for one of the first times in in a long while we've partnered up with uh... you know intel services with the israeli to actually strike at the heart of where these guys are located we have a ton of information on them and you know you can only watch them for so long preparing to kill more americans before you got a step and do something yeah

26:38john raccliffe doing a pretty good job at the c.i.a don't you think tough tough guy he's a winner for sure he made them a lot more aggressive than than they were before they're yeah i'm really impressed with with what they've done i serve with them in the first term and you know all these necessary means he was d.n.i but he was a congressman he was actually a prosecutor from texas bread that's where a lot of his stuff comes from yeah that's i know that yeah i know nobody does he started out as a as a prosecutor you know for the in texas where law law and order is the is the thing last hit last minute kuba next to come down i mean that one could be a deal you know and maybe regime change more regime alteration you have any sense of that i think they're watching this stuff and they watch the maduro operation and uh i wouldn't want to be running that country right now i'll tell you that much um we are uh every operation that

27:40we have we have conducted uh we have successfully executed it and it kuba's another place where we've been wanting to go for a while and there's been uh at the highest levels of the administration debate on whether or not we should do that but it's another place that is long overdue for a change and it's way too close to our shores for us to not be getting ready to try and do something about it well i think marco rubio you know you're not going to let go he's got him on the ropes so i think that one's going to go too i think you're 100% right uh bred vellicolich uh power us that's the new company now former special ops and intel from the army is that right brett yes sir thank you thank you ever so much for helping we appreciate the service folks we're gonna take a break and uh we can talk a little slip a little economics in here the lousy jobs number yesterday for sure uh bright parts john karni is going to help us out i'm

28:43cudlow please take a stick around the larry cudlow show on the red apple podcast network so he had a pretty lousy jobs number yesterday private jobs private payrolls fell 86,000 fell the month before they gained 146 i don't know if this is a winner distorted one off or something more serious the purchasing managers for services and manufacturing showed very strong but this one was pretty awful wages did go up however by over a four percent year on year so let's talk to john karni bright part news editor for economics and finance and co-author of the bright part business digest so john uh talking i was talking to micky bowman uh you know vice chair of the fed yesterday

29:49on set two things one is she thought she thought this was a very bad number and she herself is probably gonna be more intense on on lower interest rates perhaps even march didn't rule it out and secondly she agrees with kevin wars that she wants to help um shrink the feds balance sheet near assets and um modernize the banking system so what do you make of all this so i think first all i thought it was a great interview i think we're going to have at least three votes for a cut in march christopher wilder has also said that he was looking for the payrolls number that came in very weak uh myren has indicated that he will vote for a cut as well uh and look the jobs number was there there probably was some winter distortion in it i mean it was one of the coldest snowiest februaries we've had in many years and huge parts of the northeast in particular or snowed in

30:52washington dc was snowed in so you had uh definitely a big weather factor on the other head you know when you look at the December number also got revised down from a gain of 48,000 to a negative 70,000 um unemployment isn't rising very much but we're not adding a lot of jobs right now that's a classic chance for the fed to say okay let's see what happens when we start cutting does this revive it um does will will people start hiring the other thing i try to get people to keep in mind though is that we actually don't need to create a lot of jobs we need it a lot of jobs when the borders were open and we're flooding the country with people coming in illegally right now the growth of the labor force is actually pretty low and we're creating more jobs than the labor force growth which is one reason the unemployment rate you know ticked up to 4.4 percent but it's very low and it's been around that range all year long despite not a lot of

31:55job creation in the private sector and a ton of job cuts in the federal government you know um you had pretty strong numbers for the ISM you know the purchasing managers and that's why I was a little skeptical this but it may be I mean actually to be honest Mickey Bowman kind of woke me up because she she's serious obviously serious person and she said it was a problem she says the major problem I asked her if it was a game changer the fed and she said it's gonna gonna cause I forget how she put it but it's gonna cause a lot of new conversation something like that uh and then I asked her about you know maybe a rate cut in March and she didn't rule it out she said well there's you know there's gonna be a lot of conversation around the table so I thought when is it me it's about two weeks the the March meeting yeah it's about two weeks I think the one of the things that is going to make it more complicated is and this happens every time we get these kind of spikes in gasoline and oil prices is the question of whether or not the fed should

32:57look through that and of course they should but it confuses to the fact every time it happens uh it didn't confuse them interestingly enough when Biden was president yeah they completely said oh we you know we can ignore that it's not a problem when it was a problem then but in the past it confused them back in 2007 and eight actually when they were still rising because they were worried about higher gasoline prices uh this time I think it's very clear um it's different than the last time gasoline prices were rising um in part because we had a lot of excess savings in households back in 2022 because of Biden's because of all the stimulus because of COVID and then all the money the deficit spending Biden was doing we don't have that right now so a gas prices go up what we'll see is actually spending go down elsewhere households don't have more money to spend they're going to get some uh from the tax cuts but it's still not going to create the it's not going to allow higher gas prices to become inflationary they're actually going

34:00to be a contractionary event the fed should look at it actually as a reason to ease monetary policy rather than tighten well remember we're producers and exporters also absolutely so there's a huge difference yeah there's a section of the economy that benefits from higher uh energy prices but I don't think it's going to last very long I my whole plan I'm talking to Besson yesterday they you know what the president wanted they got the developments we're going to re-insure uh the oil tankers and um give them some protection with the navy and as soon as they put them through the uh the straits of hormones soon you know get four five six up and through I guarantee you all prices start heading south that's what Chris Wright was saying um I don't think Scott Besson really understands the importance of this play but I see that Chris Wright was out there in the energy secretary uh he agrees with me and and yeah Edward Denny's another guy that talked about it you know get to show people you can get oil through the strait and the price will

35:02start easing down it won't go back to 60 right away but it'll stop going up John yeah absolutely actually one of the funny things that's happening is the production is still really hot yes uh the Kuwait there was a story in the Wall Street Journal that Kuwait actually had to freeze production because their their their storage facilities are full yes so what does that tell you that tells you once we get the strait open yeah then we will and it at a huge part of it really can be just done financially yes you know the and so once we're ensuring it that is a really important thing we will that will drop the oil price very quickly as you said I think there will still be some lingering nervousness or we're not going to get down to 60 but 92 93 dollars a uh barrel is too much you know it it becomes a problem for the economy it's so funny the big enemy in the straits of hormones is not the Iranian navy which was sunk already it was Lloyds of London right absolutely they're the

36:08biggest maritime insurer and and they sent it through the room we're gonna we're gonna get a lot of volatility as well look every time you know a report comes that somebody fires a uh missile out of tanker yeah oil prices will go up the stock market will go down but as you said uh I don't think it's gonna last very long and the real economic pain from higher oil prices actually isn't just you know a few days spike uh or a couple days of higher gasoline prices it's really when it starts to change both business and consumer behavior and that takes a little while so if they get a hold of this quickly I don't think we're gonna have a big problem now hopefully really uh John what we've got a minute left or a minute and a half left two minutes left um the trade court in New York said that uh treasuries got to pay out the refunds for the tariffs I guess 130 billion dollars some such because of the war this story has been under covered I didn't even have time to

37:09talk to Scott Besson about it yesterday but it's out there the New York trade court so um you got thought on that in the last uh 90 seconds yeah I think we this was going to happen I don't think it's going to be a big problem um look the US government actually pays the weight the tariffs are done even before this is you you there's a lot of estimation that goes on and then you true it up later whether that's somebody having to pay more or the treasury paying it back they're gonna be able to do this without much of a problem uh the the new tariff revenue is gonna start to come in so we're actually gonna see them collecting tariffs and then using sort of recycling that to pay back some of the tariffs that's already that were paid already I don't think it's going to be as big of a headache as people thought like they're set up to do it uh it will be I mean look it'll probably take a little longer than people think even if the courts tell them to go quickly just because it's a there's a lot more companies that paid a lot more money and you

38:14you know you can't just start to check out to anyone this isn't you know uh if I if you and I go and say hey give me a million dollars we paid the tariffs they need you know we need to show that we paid it you know so there's going to be some paperwork a palamine who will remain on name but was a former very very very senior treasury official east it's been telling me that the inside the treasury the Bureau of Fiscal Services can dispense or dispose of this refunds tariff refunds very quickly but it's not a price never been a pro and the customs whatever it's called that actually gets the transactions you know they're they're recognizing it's quite good they've got it all written down they're used to paying refunds look yeah people people get refunds from the US government all the time for their taxes corporations get it people get it it's not a problem thank you john carney by the way folks the daily bright-barred business digest is a must read we're going to take a break and then the other side general jack keen i will come in

39:20and enlighten us about the whole Iran story i'm cuddlo please stick around the larry cuddlo show on the red apple podcast network ready set go get your toyota today with great deals on your favorite trucks at your local toyota dealer like a full-size tundra or check out the off-road ready to coma visit toyota.com to find out more toyota let's go places president Barack Obama Virginia we are counting on you Republicans want to steal enough seats in congress to raid the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years but you can stop them by voting yes by april 21st help put our elections back on a level playing field and let voters decide not politicians vote yes by april 21st paid for by virginians for fair elections the larry cuddlo show entertaining and informative on the red apple podcast network

40:30so we continue our coverage of the war and there is no greater expert than general jack keen dear friend retired four star general chairman of the institute for the study of war box new senior strategic analyst actually i was in the room when he got the presidential medal of freedom so it's a wonderful thing um general keen if you're out there sir you're out there i'm here louder and queer all right i just um i had texted you i know you're busy prior to read your text messages i texted you there two ago uh thanking you for all the things you've done uh for our tv show and our radio show but just in general for the country because this Iranian war must be won to change the course of history and rectify the mistaken architecture

41:32of relations in the middle east and the rest of the world i mean you've done just superhuman stuff and you've been so helpful to us in particular i know other anchors other hosts on fox would say the same thing so i wanted to thank you sir since since i wrote you the text message i know you didn't see it i'm going to say it on the air thank you very much for everything you've done sir thank you very much i truly appreciate that i enjoy talking to you and your audience one whatever you want to thank you great so let's start off uh are we uh ahead of schedule general keen how do you see it yeah well we're pretty much on schedule maybe a little bit ahead of it because the detail planning and how comprehensive this has been between the two most proven militaries in the world today is rally in the united states and how vastly experienced we are and let me just underscore the how well we're working together to trust that we have any each other the shared values the shared interests you know when we work with other allies in the past

42:34uh sometimes they didn't have the shared values many times they did but they didn't have much capability and we had a burden disproportionately you know uh the capability and also the casualties and here the Israelis come come not only with shared values and interest but with huge proven capability so i just want to say that as a result of it we're a little bit ahead of schedule but the plan was so detailed and it was so based on such clear understanding of the Iranian capabilities and also Larry what their intent was and and we knew that so yes we have significant momentum here and we cannot understate it and and the casualties are considerably lower than anything expected i mean we had this horrific incident with essentially a lucky shot on the and the Iranian part that hit command center in the Gulf state of Kuwait and and kill six of our

43:36soldiers and we suddenly honored their service and and the heart goes out to the family and friends and they're suddenly going to be honored in a transfer ceremony at Dova today and and i know for a fact that everybody is committed to make certain that we finish this honorably achieve a victory here and that's the best thing we can do to honor our soldiers to make certain that their lives are not squandered and there's no intent that that will happen so the commitment part of the force out there is very real but this momentum we have is significant and it really is coming in two areas one is as you have noted is taking out their military capability all their weapons systems that they have been navy their Air Force which never was much of anything ballistic missiles drones nuclear capability but even more over going beyond that into their defense industrial base any company that's manufacturing a capability for the Ukrainians on excuse me for

44:41the Iranians on the Iranian soil is going to be taken down and that's going to take some time because it's obvious what we're trying to do we don't know we want to destroy their current capability we want to deny them from having any future capability so that's the intent the second major thrust has taken place and if the Israelis are doing this largely by themselves because their intelligence is so good at it and that is to take down all the organizations that are sustaining the regime and keep it in power the IRGC headquartered in Iran with many other outlets in Iran and also in 32 other places in the provinces spread out in the country the Bosnian militia which they use to suppress the people the entire police infrastructure they do the same thing this is systematic and deliberate and will take some time and the Israelis keep sending up a signal to us please have some patience with us this will take time to do and they won't have the obvious

45:48tangible results when you destroy ballistic missiles and drones obvious the result of that is less retaliation attacks and they can be measured taking down these organizations it's not measurable but there's a lot of intelligence and intangible things that are happening we're already seeing in terms of impact some good things and that is some breakdowns in the chain of command lower morale among some of the security forces a degree of paranoia exists in terms of what's coming next those are all good signs so our audience understands the ultimate objective of war is always the same the break your opponents will and you're obviously using force as much as possible to change that behavior and break their will so when we hear things like that taking place those are very good signs and we don't want to get ahead of ourselves we have a campaign here that's in front of us and it's a very determined campaign and we got to go keep reminding ourselves

46:54of this reality this regime and what's left of it they have one objective and one objective only and that's to preserve the regime and stay in power they know full well that their lives are at risk significantly if they give up power they would likely be hung and killed by the very people they've been repressing you know for almost 50 years so they're fighting not just to stay in power and enjoy the lifestyle that they have but to also survive and they believe the best way to survive is to stay in power is that sort of when the president said yesterday I guess that he wants nothing but unconditional surrender is that an attempt again to fight psychology and morale and say look this is it you either lay down your arms are gonna be killed there's no more talking there's no more deal making it's a you know it's a it's a it's a bot binary choice yeah I really applaud him

47:56for saying that and because the the Iranians given the fact that this president has always tried to find to try diplomatic solutions to achieve political objectives and he told me he has tried it with with the Iranians and exhausted that capability really they they believe they always have that as a lifeline you know that they can come back and say okay we get it Mr. President we are going to come the terms now oh serious terms over no nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and support for proxies I'm just presuming they would say something like that to stop the bombing the you know and then international pressure would come on the president say while the Iranians really do want to negotiate seriously let's let's go to a ceasefire the president knows well any stopping of this campaign prematurely gives them a lifeline and in a year or so we're dealing with these guys all over again he he he gets it so he is said he has put an ultimatum out there I'm not gonna negotiate with you at all all I'm all I'm willing to talk to you

49:02about is unconditional surrender and the terms that would surround something like that and what that really means is how we would execute it and that just puts out there a huge ultimatum that puts in place I think the the continued momentum to break the will of this regime and that's the path we're on but so I already understand these guys are determined to stay in power and we got to work towards that end every single day and believe me we are really doing that General King let me circle back one of your key points the manufacturing base is getting bombed out killed destroyed now people in business there's a you know there's a business group in Iran that presumably operates that base or owns part of that base or whatever I'm amazed they're not you know business people should be up in arms against the regime because the regime is destroying

50:05their businesses and the business as you say this this can be destroyed for quite some time the manufacturing companies you know equipment factories the whole nine yards it's not that easy to rebuild that stuff not it's not and certainly they have been complicit in all of this and building the weapons of war for Iranians not only to use and feed to their proxies and use against Israel but to repress their own people obviously yeah you know that they're doing everything they can to survive themselves out of this and at this point they realize they bet on the wrong horse they they may have been living off the fruits of all of that for a number of years but that is absolutely coming to an end and so to remind our audience the process began in among the middle class merchants not not defense manufacturers but middle class merchants I mentioned it because this was the first time the businesses really got involved in a protest

51:07and it began with them because their businesses were in the tank as a result of the economy and they knew full well that this regime is not capable of recovering that economy and they got set up with it and that when they fell in then this then came the students then came the general population so there's a there's a recognition certainly in Iran among the people and the business community that they're on a horrible path economically and the only hope they have is for another regime to come in and run this country more effectively what can they do General let's stay with that the middle class the merchant class yes I'll add the students but you know the people that own the stores and shops and so forth people that you know need trade from the outside world what can they do well I think once the bombing stops that there they know they're no longer in danger from going outside I think we're likely going to see

52:15some protests that it will be dependent on a couple things not just the cessation of the bombing and the threat to them as a result of it but also how much of this regime is already left and it's in the streets because that's where they've been making sure they didn't even come out of their homes as you look at this as a vast country as we all know and the IRGC extends into 32 locations outside of the capital city itself so I think two things would be operating there one it's now safe to go outside too but what's going to happen to us in terms of repression how much of this regime is left with guns pointing at them willing to kill them and that's what the Israelis are very attuned to this they are attempting Larry to put in place and set the conditions for a regime collapse that is that is the purpose of the operation in terms of what they're doing

53:16with all the organizations that sustain this regime is so how successful they're at on that will be a condition for the people themselves and how do they respond I don't agree with arming the people they're not an organized group and I think putting weapons in their hands with no leadership no training nothing would would not be a very good solution and I think whatever is left of the regime they would come at them not just with teen guns but with tanks and every major weapon system they can get their hands on if they were doing something like that but it remains to be seen how successful this campaign the Israelis are conducting against the organizations will have on the ability of the people to get into the streets and begin to demonstrate and take control of their country again I think what's most likely here Larry

54:18is we'll find somebody in that's in the regime now maybe not the diabolical ideologues that are at the top of it but maybe somebody in their army organization not the IRGC a leader there or two who could kind of step in and and be it would be an authoritarian leader likely more concerned about Iran surviving and it's people surviving than this ideology that the elites are running kind of what is this he did in Egypt when he was over at Watto did in Indonesia right or what we're doing in Venezuela with Chelsea Rodriguez I mean you know you rise the wide open easy dictator is still but you can maybe bend them to your will a little bit and they can help us with the transition to a much better government than they would be able to represent yeah that's a great point that's a great point um let's see I was interviewing Treasury man Scott Besson yesterday talked about

55:25a major the biggest bombing mission yet and then President Trump's been talking about it and I guess the planes lining up in London and London in England in our bases or their bases what's going to happen here is this bombing mission this this weekend or I haven't seen any news of it I just heard that you know Besson and then the president talking about it do you have any thoughts on that yeah sure what we're in a different phase uh for the Israelis they're still working on taking Iran's weapons away from them and and uh and they're working on organizations as I indicated as their primary focus United States is still working on taking all of Iranians weapons away but the means have changed so we're in a different phase because we have air superiority freedom of the skies so our aircraft is rally at Americans flying over Iranian airspace day

56:25at night can you imagine I call it the sound of freedom you know for the the Iranian people knowing full well that those airplanes represent a force that's trying to destroy this regime on their behalf but what has happened is we don't have to use standoff weapon systems and cruise missiles of ships standoff cruise missiles from airplanes and precision munitions we can go right into taran itself and right into the other places where the adversaries are located with big bombers that normally we wouldn't do that unless we had air superiority that's what they're talking about and it gives us an increased mortality because we're bringing 500 pounds a thousand pound two thousand pound bombs that we use in that a precision guided they have significant accuracy to them but they can fly literally over those cities and release them and with those threats to themselves have a high degree of access so there's more the scale of the bombing

57:29has increased in terms of its mortality not necessarily in terms of the number of airplanes but the size of the airplanes the bombers themselves we're bringing them in and so that it you know internal military stuff that's a different phase of the operation we normally take extended operations and phase them so we can bring order to each phase and that's what we're doing here this is phase two for us and also phase two for the Israelis. I got to leave it there General Jack Keane again we appreciate everything Fox News senior strategic analyst that's the least of it terrific stuff sir thank you can't thank you enough take care talk soon all right folks uh we're gonna take a quick break and now we might have a little bit on the other side but quick break many many many thanks to General Keane for his wisdom and his insights and his analysis. National security advisor Robert O'Brien coming up next stay with us.

58:30The Larry Cudlow Show on the Red Apple podcast network this episode is brought to you by Kologart do you know what's really scary not screening for colon cancer when you turn 45 the Kologart test is not invasive requires no special prep or time off work and shifts right to your door in just three simple steps Kologart takes the scare out of colon cancer screening if you're 45 or older and at average risk ask your health care provider about the Kologart test. Kologart is available by prescription only learn more or request a prescription today at Kologart.com slash screen. The Larry Cudlow Show on the Red Apple podcast network. Welcome back folks we continue our discussions on the Iranian war and the incredible importance of the success by President Trump and our allies with in Israel we welcome back to

59:33the show dear friend ambassador Robert O'Brien former national security advisor and currently chairman of American global strategies Robert thank you for doing this once again you've been so helpful on the TV show and here on the radio so I'm talking to General Keane and of course listening to President Trump talk about unconditional surrender there's another bombing mission big bombing mission brewing with American planes parked in our bases in England but essentially Iran is defenseless as I understand they are simply defenseless here so you know how long can this can this continue before they take Trump's advice and lay down their arms or just that all be the regime will all be completely killed what is there an endgame here that we should envision so Larry thank you for having me on I think the important thing for us to realize here is

1:00:35it's like an overnight situation these this regime is radical regime they're extremists they they are committed to their cause they will lose they're losing now big time and but we face the fanatic regime like it's in Japan at the end and in 1944-45 they clearly lost the war but it took the you know the Hiroshima and Nagasaki became the emperor to lay down his arms I'm not in any way suggesting that there's a nuclear option here I think that's the reason we're fighting the wars avoid a nuclear situation but it's going to take some time the effort to convince these you know extremists to lay down their arms now one thing President pushes President Trump is not going to do is say I don't think it's a large ground force on so the attempt to win a war with the naval and air bombardment it just takes longer and so we've

1:01:36got to be patient we are going to win they are defenseless and these extremists are going to have to come to the conclusion that there's no other alternative than laying down their arms that that will happen it just may take a little bit of a bit of time one other thing that Jack Keen mentioned I thought it's very interesting is Israel is kind of cleaning out all these local militias you know who are appendages to the to the revolutionary guards and their headquarters in Iran which I mean Command control is getting slaughtered right now but there's the pockets of militias around I think he said there are 32 locations but that one of the things that Israel is doing is cleaning them out going right for them so it's going to make you know some regime change easier and I had thought about that Robert O'Brien yeah it's a brilliant strategy by the Israelis and these are they're doing what they didn't got them they're targeting the leadership

1:02:38if the you know the local and then for day level the local level there's sending text messages to the Iranian people who let them know what you know what they're going to hit when they're going to hit to avoid civilian casualties and avoid a backlash and a lot rather on the flag you know response in Iran but think about it Larry every police station in every city and land as a risk from Israeli attack right so these are the you know prevention advice and promotion virtue police the bad the badgy the guard yeah all other local gathering spots are there you know water and holes every one of them is arrested from this very attack and so that that that that will help ex write this you know the surrender that the president is called for well that's the thing I mean do you think I mean what are the odds and what's the timing do you think they'll actually lay down their arms as a president Trump is requesting in order to get immunity I mean when

1:03:42you said unconditional surrender I mean I like that I think that's great basically saying to them this you know you've got two options here you're gonna get you're gonna get killed or you're gonna lay down your arms and get some kind of immunity there's no deal making left in this in this war so I mean that's a morale buster I would guess I mean if I that should shake them up but I don't know what have these people are crazy so it's hard for me to get in their heads well I think you're right Larry 100% and I think as we in these reds continue to take up the commanding control of the national leadership and Iran and to grade them in the local leaders who are going to be faced with you know the people and the uprising and they know if they don't lay down their weapons and ask for immunity and now from the US and protection from the US the local Iranians who they've been killing you know by massive amounts I mean they killed 40,000

1:04:45people it's a couple weeks ago they're gonna want revenge and so you know I think once we take up the national leadership the the moral you know state and local leadership so to speak is going to want to you know make peace with their neighbors and not be killed so you know I think we've got a couple more weeks and people need to be patient and we need to continue to grade the national leadership to grade their capabilities that we we've to grade their cables that defend the and stuff now we use it to grade their cables to defend against their own people yeah good point last one you know the the old opic what is it the development finance corpse going to you know reinsure the oil tankers I think this is very cool and the navy can help get them through Robert I'm just this is something from the show yesterday with the best thing I talked about it this morning I'd like to see a whole string of you know super tankers go through

1:05:48the straight of hormones you know with navy fine but they're being reinsured now by this development finance corporation from our government show the world that oil can pass through and I think it would take the heat off the oil prices no wait the other effect will have it it may be insurance market you know Lloyd's has traditionally done that but the British the British Navy is no longer in a position to you know help to help shipping and and be a part into Lloyd's so if we start doing this is dfc and american companies with you know we'll move the major financial market to New York or or while Washington DC and then that would be great for the economy as well so you know we'll have to see how that plays out but the key is making sure that the tankers many of which are going to China actually pay you know we don't want to do this service for China for free and move their oil right and good point to make sure that they actually pay their premiums if they pay their premiums and you know we're making money off it in the US maybe should have

1:06:52scored the ships and and I think they'll be able to do so without too much problem because the Iranian plan to close the straight of homelessness is the the Iranian navy and then IRGC speed boats to plant mines and he used their aircraft to plant mines but they they've got no aircraft left and they've got no navy so their ability to close the straight of homelessness is going to be very limited yeah i mean i i'm getting excited about that but you're right about China if no more discounts right if you're going to play you're going to pay market value whatever that happens to be yeah we were not going to ask for ghost fleet ships you know to take same sanctioned busing oil we're going to escort you know step on an aramco and you know legitimate companies that are selling oil at market prices and and the Chinese will have to pay the premiums to the dfc for the insurance and that all happens and that's great let's you know keep the international fove oil going love that thank you master robberto brine

1:07:52dear friend former national security advisor now the chairman of american global strategies i'm cudlow uh former israeli intelligence and security expert are in cone coming up next here please stick around folks much more the larry cudlow show on the red apple podcast network the larry cudlow show entertaining and informative on the red apple podcast network my great pal aron cologne founder of gittian ai threat detection for law enforcement uh former special ops uh for israel he's got the aron cologne podcast aron we were talking last night on the tv show and it's interesting because i followed up with general keen the the idea that there is a you you raises the idea that there's a business

1:08:54class in iran and and one would expect them to it's take some action uh you know to lay down and lay down their arms and surrender is unconditionally as president trump one but he made an important distinction and i want to get you to take on you got these big manufacturers defense manufacturers who are really kind of part of the government and of course their their companies and their facilities are being bombed you know just wasteful wasteful which is good have to do it but they're in cahoots with the um with the revolutionary guard and and the army and navy and whoever but then you've got another group these um you know middle class uh shopkeepers i think he called them you know you can just imagine they're afraid to come outside they're getting bombed and so forth but the shopkeepers are out there and they're the ones they're not associated with the uh you know

1:09:54ruling clique and they're the ones that would want to foment a change so i'm just trying to figure out you know how this can finally play out because the game's over i mean it's just a question of playing out the hand robberto brine was just on for man's security advisor he says kind of like japan in 44 and 45 you we did have to do unfortunately we did have to do more we're not going to nuke Iran but it took a while to you know absolutely squelts the entire country's uh operation so what who does it who's who are the people that lead the overthrow so larry it's good to be home with you and thank you for the plug on getting in last night and thank you again today um trying to get law enforcement upstream for these lone wolf attackers so here's here's one i'm at the Iranian middle class i'm glad you asked it again because i've been thinking about it since we discussed it is actually one of the most important forces to watch in my opinion in this situation which is why i brought it up yesterday uh what do you want

1:10:56on your show so we're talking about millions of these are educated urban iranians professionals the engineers the teachers uh the small business owners like you said and these are the people who are not connected to the ruling elite as you just mentioned and increasingly feel that that the regime has robbed them of economic opportunity and personal freedom and i assume that's what you're sort of leading towards here so for years that middle class now i grew up in Los Angeles even though i was trained in israel i i've been around the Persian Jewish community the Persian Muslim communities are good people and so for years the middle class has been the engine of the descent in iran and they all left in 79 and so you saw during the green movement in 2009 you saw it again during the nationwide protests in 2019 and so i think what makes them particularly significant is that they understand the cost of the regime's policies and so their movement

1:12:02i think can create enormous pressure i think that's where the protests live if they start striking civil resistance but by themselves i don't know if it's enough to topple a regime like this you know these authoritarian systems collapse when the pressure from the society reaches the security apparatus and so in this case the besiege the militias the internal security force that middle class has to push hard and in order for them to get that boost i think these operations need to continue but there might be enough of them for them to deteriorate or begin that deterioration but i think it's still too early in the campaign and i think there might have to be boots on the ground lary before that middle class can rise up so i just think they there needs to be more pressure before that class can step up but i definitely think i think they're the pin in the grenade i agree with you you well i look uh both general keen and robert or brine who is former

1:13:06national security adviser agree with you it's too early the game it's just too early and much more is going to happen i don't know about boots on the ground i don't i don't think that's what i mean maybe special i don't think it's us boots i think is oh israeli boots i listen i i i the question is how many israeli boots selective operations u.s. special operations forces assisting with Kurdish elements just to make sure they're equipped and trained helping organize i don't think any of this is going to be long term boots anywhere trust me that really clear he doesn't want to get into the forever wars but here's the thing in counterterrorism lary these aren't forever wars after what happened in iraq it just doesn't work israel can put boots yep what's the problem israel's got light infantry for days and that's israel's backyard and so with the americans like hey we're not going to put boots it's cool israel isn't afraid to they don't have any policy or pressure this is their backyard

1:14:10this is their survival but again i think that would be limited in scope and by the way i think general keen is fantastic you listen every word that he says so please let him know he's a great man he's a great a long time friend of mine and mentor but he's a great great man i think these are limited operations but lary here's where here's where i was just kind of formulating in my mind this morning before we spoke there is going to have to be some kind of ground element you're not going to be able to take down 300 thousand uh uh iranian military and then another five to seven thousand besiege which is what we're looking at what we're approximately those middle ranks which is where the real for the irgc that besiege you got to get those middle guys uh uh uh as well they're the ones who have to decept over so there have to be ground operations i think it'll be selective i think it'll be rolled out slowly but it's about pressure how much pressure trump warfare i say keeps stacking it on incrementally over the next few weeks and just like we said last night make the price high enough to where listen the nuclear deal

1:15:12it's all off the table now lary yeah now it's you have to step down and trump understands that but who does who does these ground operations i i don't think it's your husband issue with it because it's their backyard and they know it's and we know it's our national survival i think it's closely monitored by us special operations forces who've been in Israel by the way for the last six months right right they've been coordinating with the Israelis they're they're they're so calm and sent central commands are special are u.s. special ops now u.s. special operations yeah no he's never rolled it out that the president has never rolled that out he's rolled out you know infantry ground truth we don't need it it doesn't work anyways you can't put infantry boots on the ground for long periods of time because once they nest in they become target far right right right so it's got to be hit and run it's got to be special operations but we've got tech today lary tech we've got drones we've got predators we've got surveillance we've got signal intelligence and you've got the massage on the ground for 30 years inside there so the

1:16:15intelligence packages are phenomenal look what we did with the pages and look what we just did now with these uh forty IRGC or iatola's top fifty guys in 60 seconds gone so i think it's i think it's more pressure i agree with the general so one last point you mentioned it earlier um the Persian i call it the Persian diaspora and i actually have you know bumped into him many times the very wealthy successful business and bankers investors you see him in New York heavily in Washington DC heavily in LA near all the place and they're good but i don't are trying to figure they have the resources that somebody in Iran probably needs to finally overturn the last vestiges of the regime but i can't figure out what the connection is i can't figure out how the tentacles come together it's a good question that there it the Persian diaspora

1:17:22especially i think in the United States is probably one of the most influential Iranian communities outside the country yeah um the Nazareans uh the show clean and the families gone the families but you know these big money guys call calm and all that work i know i mean i know i'm personally good good folks and they're and they're incredible business leaders and very influential in in Iran before they were they all you know took off when their bank accounts were shut down so hundreds of thousands of Iranian Americans many of them highly educated um and left in 79 so in terms of influence i do think that the diaspora plays an important role in a few was i think first they helped shape the public conversation and the actual policy debate uh but second the visibility and the support for the opposition force is helping to amplify uh and uh halavi you know what i mean and and the question is is do they have enough juice and will they pull their money together and will they take all of that to trump the trump isn't already having that

1:18:22conversation about resident halavi because he seems to be the number one short no the question is is do they have enough influence to put together the funding and design the policy and get to all of the besiege right to get them to let come over to palavi and put him in at the same time once these operations all right hit a peak i don't know we'll see we'll see um great stuff Aaron Cohn founder of gideon we appreciate very very much we'll talk soon Aaron we'll take a break folks and then we're going to do some stock market work on the other side stay with us i'm cuddlo podcast network welcome back folks very cuddlo here we're dissecting the Iranian war and related

1:19:25subjects for that info the economy and all prices and the trade of her moves or moves you know i all say is i'm going to let our experts tell us what they're thinking but for all the negative headlines and the market got you know pummeled last week but the first seven days the Dow Jones off three percent so all it is and the s&p 500 is off two percent and the Nasdaq is off one point two percent so whatever your vision of the future is we have not had a catastrophic i mean we know eight ten twelve percent drop at least not yet anyway we have Stephanie Langkite tower advisors and chief investment strategist and head of investment solutions we have Nancy Tengler CEO and chief investment officer Laffer Tengler investments Nancy's latest book is the women's guide to successful investing ladies thank you for coming on uh Nancy i'll start with you

1:20:28and just say what are you thinking tell us what you're thinking well it's good to be on with you and Stephanie Larry thank you uh i i'm pretty optimistic i think this is an opportunity earnings have been great uh the ten year is still below the levels of a month ago so it's staying range bound and not really uh signaling uh panic and we've we've had great opportunities to buy companies that have exhibited uh or performed triple plays which is a beat on earnings beat on revenues and race of guidance and they sold off on the news so i think this is an opportunity to add to many of those names which is what we've been doing in some of the software plays for example service now Microsoft Palantir over recent weeks and then to really enjoy the performance of some of our largest toldings like broad common and lamb research so i think investors need to step back and say you know we keep hearing this like this breathless um the Iranian said they were gonna you know double down and dig in and fight back and it's like yeah and that's what we call rhetoric

1:21:30rhetoric yes uh they didn't have they don't have the tools and so i think we're getting close to more certainty and i think the bond uh the oil market will uh capitulate to some extent and that'll be good news all the way around we're gonna fix the oil market the probably the oil market was was not the Iranians it was Lloyds of London right and now that's being fixed you know we have this um uh whatever it's called it used to be you know we're guaranteeing uh the insurance uh development finance corporation that's the name actually we put it together in the first term so that they're gonna you know reinsure and then hopefully well but you know i want to see a bunch of tankers go through the straight of hormones if they require naval uh protection fine just get get that done to show people that whatever they're worried about uh on the oil front it's not it's not a problem i mean

1:22:31there's only a few radiant motorboats left they're like a little skiffs and they're the rest of the navy the navy is at the bottom of the Persian Gulf for code six anyway exactly step step step Stephanie Link what's your thinking well it's number one um in terms of the war i i've never lary have never made money trading around any kind of geopolitical issue other than to say what Nancy just said in that there's opportunity to be buying great companies on sale i've never made money selling into the fear and so there is opportunity and you kind of stole a little bit of my thunder because you talked about the market's year to date you know we had Venezuela we had scotus we have AI and software Armageddon we have private credit concerns and now we have this and the smp equal weight is actually up uh three point five percent so we have seen the broadening out why did we see in the broadening

1:23:32because yeah the non-farm payroll report was ugly but there was a lot of one off there including weather strike birth death and birth death adjustments but beyond that you had some pretty decent economic data this week number one with claims initial claims continue to be low productivity keeps on it keeps it's keeping uh ongoing it's it actually got revised for the third quarter to five point two percent two point eight percent for the fourth quarter ISM manufacturing is now in expansion mode and even retail sales i'll take three percent growth year over year in retail sales given all the weather stuff that we've had going on so my point being is yeah okay war is ugly the the non-farm payroll port is kind of ugly but there's some other things there and we yet to see one big beautiful bill so i think the economy is still going to hang in and that's why earnings are are are doing better than expected and that's why you want to be buying unit labor costs 1.3 percent the all that's the ultimate inflation for for labor and perhaps

1:24:32for the economy region you're so right retail sales 12-month change 3.2 the core retail sales you take out the uh autos and gas and buildings 4.9 again you're right purchasing managers looking very strong uh productivity 2.8 last four quarter you're yeah i mean i agree initial unemployment claims stuck at 213 thousand it's a big it's a big nothing burger uh i i mean i agree with all the i'm glad to hear you're not you're not i mean i think that all all prices are right you might have an inflation thing um not this report but the next report but you we know it's temporary right we don't we know that yeah and we also know that that tariffs are are going to be a net benefit uh to uh individuals or to companies declining by about 79 billion dollars on the new tariff rate thanks to scotus i think the president should have gotten up at the state of the union

1:25:34said thank you i think that's gonna offset but i just want to add one thing he did shake their hands he shook their hands he was very gracious right they just took his major policy out but he was there and shook their hand did you notice that this is the new gracious trump is very important i'm proud of i'm sorry go ahead no i just gonna say in the 90s you know we had an average uh rate of unemployment of 5.8 to 5.9 percent and and productivity was uh about uh just under two percent and then in the second half of the the decade it ran up uh to two and a half percent annually so i agree with Stephanie a hundred percent we we believe that productivity is going to carry the day we've been talking about it for three years it's not just ai there's all sorts of efficiencies that are being realized but you can have and and oh and chairman green spand raised the fed funds rate uh after cutting so we we can always hand-dringing over whether we're going to get one cut or three cuts at this point that is not what is going to drive stock prices it's going to be fundamentals

1:26:40and there are a lot i mean i don't know how you felt Stephanie but i thought this was an incredible earning season and guidance was good which is what really matters and it wasn't just or it was it was revenues but it was margins margins everyone's talking about how margins are going to roll over i feel like for the last 35 years that's what i've heard margins are always going to roll over and actually we're seeing margin expansion so you get in such operating leverage and that's why i mean 14 percent earnings growth is phenomenal after what we have seen over the last couple of years it's incredible yeah you two down through the years you two are among the smartest investors i know uh and and and and you're laying it out you're laying it out look profits of the muddest milk of stocks this other stuff's going to pass i don't want to downgrade it because it has massive massive historical and you know world affairs but the american economy's in good shape uh we're producing a lot of oil by the way we're an oil exporter all right keep saying that to people uh even the

1:27:42whatever oil shock is happening it's not like the 70s yes because we have producer we're producing a lot of everyone associated with producing oil and gas actually benefits from our prices okay so it's a whole different idea but the profit story was good and the productivity story was good i love your e what did you say the equal weighting is three and a half percent yep that's equal weight up three and a half my god that's right you know what that's fabulous and i forgot to look at i'm gonna have to put that on my stuff just put a post it note on your computer screen you know i had covered with it i had uh your denny on the tv show this week was a great pleasure you know he's a smart guy and we were talking uh you know we're going to reinsure the oil tankers get them through the get them through the straight hormones just put a bunch of them through to show that it's okay and these all prices will stop they'll stop rising and eventually you know

1:28:44they'll settle down to where they ought to be which is probably some place around you know sixty bucks where they were anyway i think it's kind of interesting you know we go after Venezuela and we go after Iran well that's that's going after china of course yeah so and that's a good that's a good thing oh geo politically this is just a wonderful thing a wonderful thing uh would you ladies be kind enough take a break i want to bring c forbs in i hope you won't mind sure uh we would take a break uh folks on cudlow uh we are here with um uh Stephanie Link Kaita our advisors and investment solutions and Nancy Tengler Laffer Tengler investments really two of the smartest investors i've known down through the years uh we'll take a break c forbs will come in on the other side i'm still cudlow we'll be right back

1:29:52the larry cudlow show on the red apple podcast network we're talking stocks with truly two of the best investors i've known down through the year Stephanie Link now high-tower advisors and uh investment solutions and Nancy Tengler of Laffer Tengler investments in her book The Women's Guide to Successful Investing we bring in my dear friend the great steve forbs chairman and editor-in-chief of forbs media steves latest book is inflation what it is widespread and how to fix it steve thank you for doing this you're going to stay over from any politics too if you can um yes our two ladies are relatively optimistic about the longer term view in the market uh i just wonder what you're thinking well i think we're trying to trade the market and these kinds of orders would be ridiculous and they just have to see things through even though there's going to be probably a lot more volatility you know larry wars always throw up unexpected things both good and bad

1:30:52so just stay stay stay through with it and one of the things we should be looking at too in terms of that uh ter seemingly bad jobs report is we've got a seasonal adjustment problem as you know in December they they we got hundreds of thousands perhaps a couple of million people coming temporarily into the job force for the holidays in january uh most of them leave the the labor force so they try to seasonally adjust for that these massive numbers and that's why December January numbers i take with a huge grain of salt the side of Mount Everest and when you have the uncertainty about tariffs when you have the the the terrible weather you have a nurse's strike in New York which affected health care workers i just shunned that old side i want to wait a couple of months till we will finally get a real take on things and to see how the Kevin Wars hearings go in congress because the federal reserve what i worry about with the fed is that if we have a sustained spike in oil prices uh with their philips curve prosperity

1:31:53cosmetic uh inflation mentality uh they may do something dumb instead of reducing short-term rates which they should have done a long time ago well on that point um i had uh Mickey Bowman on the show last night i advised chair of the fed for supervision an old friend of mine very smart woman um she wants to cut rates Steve in fact she wants to do several things she agrees with Kevin Wars about shrinking the balance sheet and reducing the fed's assets um she wants to have lower interest rates she believes the banks are over capitalized okay yes and she wants to see the make more C&I loans to you know medium and small businesses i mean she has a very good pro growth agenda we talked about how stupid the fed is 1.7 percent growth forever and ever and she you know she agree she i mean she basically said i'm a supply-sider i mean it was really quite an informative interview i just kind of i just turned the switch on and she went go

1:32:54and she did was terrific well that uh that uh that's uh that's good uh long run when we get over these uh current crises uh because the federal reserve needs a fundamental overhaul and have at least several governors understand the profound flaws of the fed in terms of their modeling uh you're going to get institution resistance but if you have the treasury department what you do in the white house what you do and you have several people on the board itself will understand how a malfunctioning the fed has been in terms of their modeling for a number of years uh that can begin to fundamentally change the way the federal reserve sees the world because they've been instructive force that size of the balance sheet by the way they'll never research it honestly has had a bad impact on lending the small businesses and the like to store the capital markets and in terms of her point about the banks lending again uh yeah imagine banks hiring more lending offices instead of compliance officers we need that Stephanie link um what do you think of all that you that was quite a mouthful you know he's a smart guy Steph he certainly is I'm glad that I'm glad that he's very constructive on long term on

1:34:01on the on the equity market and and honestly I mean the fed is going to be an interesting watch right because we they're kind of a little bit in a bind in terms of what do they do uh he's got a corral all the people right and I just hope that he can and I think uh Steve's right in terms of I think they should have been lowering rates up for a long time um and and now with the labor market kind of little soft they can I think and I think that they should you know Nancy I will say this this goes to Steve's point about flawed seasonal adjustments I don't believe any of these numbers because of the shutdown I mean and I'm a numbers guy okay or I used to be I just don't believe any of it honestly I just I see them and I just say yeah what else is new well and and they're so subject to massive revision right seeing over the last couple of years and so it always surprises me when the market trades off the today number because we know it's

1:35:06going to be revised but if you look deeper in the ISM manufacturing and ISM services you see that people are hiring and the employment numbers went up so that that to me is much more instructive real-time data real data uh instead of all the estimations and seasonal adjustments and and Kevin Hassett said on on all airs on Friday that um you know it's it's the birth death model and so it's been revised again but we treat this like it's the gospel and the numbers come out and so I just think again it just creates opportunities for long-term investors because the employment pictures pretty solid I mean we had 5.8% unemployment during the 90s and stock prices the economy grew stock prices rose generationally hot you know high levels so I just think you have to step away from the numbers look at the trend lines but look at the real real data and to me that is the ISM look at the four-week moving average of weekly jobless claim right that is what you pay attention

1:36:08to because it's real more real time and you're at 215,000 over the last four weeks this is these are historically low numbers recession is 350 to 375,000 we are away away from that so I think a lot of I think Nancy's right and I think Steve's right this is a lot of noise and you're getting a lot of opportunities you know business is hiring small businesses are hiring EJ and Tony if you know him he's a smart chap he looks at this private sector inflation tracking they I don't know a million of prices much bigger than the government and the inflation rate is less than 1% anyway you're all fabulous Stephanie Link thank you Nancy Tengler thank you Steve Forbes thanks you're going to stay over for money in politics with Liz Peak and Steve Moore I'm still cut low and this is a great country folks we'll be right back the Larry Cudlow Show on the Red Apple podcast network

1:37:14the Larry Cudlow Show entertaining and informative on the Red Apple podcast network so we're talking money in politics so we're going to some interesting stuff out there on oil and wealth creation and reinsurance all very interesting we're staying with our palsy Forbes the great Forbes is chairman and editor in chief of Forbes media we have I think Liz Peak Fox News contributor and weekly columnist and my buddy Steve Moore on these prosperity hotline and WABC radio host of more money which comes right up after this show on most of these same radio stations I think we're all here Steve Moore in the middle of this war is a couple of things that I really the hotline the prosperity hotline is knocking out some great stuff and I want to refer to it because point number one that the rise in oil prices has more to do with Lloyd's London pulling back

1:38:19ending all their contracts for insurance than it does about a shortage of supply okay and your points here we're record high 13.6 million barrels per day we are 24 I this is my favorite we're 24 million barrels per day in oils and liquid fuels more than Russia and Saudi Arabia combined and then finally we're doing 110 billion cubic feet per day for natural gas which is just about the same as Russia Iran and communist China combined in other words we don't have a supply problem at all and fact I would just add to this we are a net exporter now of oil and fossil fuels so you got you know it okay you can clear up the insurance re insurance issue which will probably do with this government agency the DFC and stabilized but that will get us through the

1:39:20streets of Hormuz and that's going to bring oil price down but America is you know drill baby drill was pure genius Steve going back to 2015 he knew all about this yep thank god and you imagine you know if we had not elected Donald Trump and we had the the left's war on fossil fuels you know it would we'd be paying $150 for right and so all those figures you just recited are true and by the way something that Trump did that a lot of listeners don't know is that inside the energy department my good friend Chris Wright I don't know if you've gotten to get know him but he's he's absolutely fantastic he's in the new energy department cabinet officer and they've created an office of energy dominance office energy dominance and it's a multi agency it has the interior department defense department and others and of course the energy department is all about how do we produce as much energy as we can and that's basically I think the you know energy

1:40:23of the future is oil natural gas nuclear power and clean coal we've got a lot of that yep so I'm I'm reading this article by distinguished columnist named Liz peak here's the title Trump has been right about oil all along really Liz well it you know you got to think back to Jimmy Carter telling us telling Americans that we're running out of oil and of course that was the mindset amongst people who really hated the oil industry but it really was very formative in terms of spurring on the great climate obsession that took hold of Europe I mean nothing irritates me more than looking at Europe and how they became so dependent on Russia for natural gas and then also continue to be very dependent on everybody in the world including the straight of hormones for oil I mean it's really kind of ridiculous right but for a lot of for example the United Kingdom

1:41:29allowing their North Sea oil fields to deplete yes of course production has headed down but guess what it's not down in Norway they continue to invest and do you know the conservative government put on I think it was a 78% windfall profits tax when oil and gas prices went up when the Ukraine war started and so in England in England the Tory the Tory's put on a 78% tax oh god I love that that's right I love that and by the way it was meant to be temporary and there has never been it tax in the history of the world it was temporary so it's still in place and then the labor department banned oil and gas development so you know I mean to the extent that they're struggling their economies are struggling and they don't have self-sufficiency like the US etc they deserve it they have this coming they they for decades now they have basically made it impossible to access oil and gas from reasonable sources dependable sources geopolitically safe sources

1:42:34and it's come home to risk you know Steve Forbes the geo politically we've been held hostage by Iran in the straight of hormones by Ben as well a perhaps to a lesser extent but but still you know two big bad actors that's all going to change now isn't it it is already beginning to change and it's going to take a while for it to sink in around the world one of the amazing things is one in terms of Iran the fact they're still fighting today even though it's much depleted shows how much rearmament they have been doing rearming arming they've been doing for the last 30 years and it's uh then that wasn't just a defender ran they were planning to take over the whole middle east and the fact they're lobbing a bombs on their neighbor shows of what their true imperial intentions were and they never really made it a secret they wanted ever the Iranian and be the empire of the middle east and indeed it crazily sounds the world so that the stopping

1:43:35them and cleaning them out thoroughly as you've been discussing in the show is absolutely essential one of the things though we must not overlook is a Ukraine and we must not short-change them in terms of armaments because of the war in the Middle East Putin still remains a threat and if he starts to lose ground in Ukraine doesn't have to lose much I think you're going to see a real change there and with China hopefully with the meeting coming up next month the first of several with the Xi Jinping that we make clear we've made the with the state of hurt moves is international waters and the South China Sea is international waters and we're going to send naval forces to make sure you don't get any ideas you're going to make this your private lake you know that's such an instant point important point on the TV show the other night Robert O'Brien former national security adviser said once this Iranian things over and it's going to be over in a couple weeks

1:44:35whatever we can move all kinds of troops navy carriers other resources air force away from all these you know we have so many bases in the Middle East we can move that into the Indo-Pacific area which will be a signal to China that you know their marrymaking is going to have a high price and really when they look at our mighty might in the military in Iran that's another deterrent to China and we're pushing them out of the western hemisphere or at least we're pushing them out of South America the China China's a net loser in the Middle East China's a net loser in the western hemisphere and China's going to be a net loser in the Indo-Pacific we you know Steve we got this very strong woman in Japan who's very you know very pro-Trump very pro-America and she

1:45:35didn't like China one bit no and the fact that she called a snap election and won it because over the way the Chinese are trying to bully her around and trying to have the Japanese community where they have a lot of trade with China's does the other Asian countries to pressure her to step down or reduce her rhetoric and her pro-defense policies she beat them back and by the way one of the things we need to do is send you and perhaps art laffer and Steve to Japan to educate her on supply-side economic they still believe in spending they still have these crazy monetary policies so we got to get them on the right track and then she'll have the economic strength to be an effective counter to the bullying by China I'm going to send Liz Peak I mean women to women Liz Peak in China now you're right I mean she wants growth but they always do it the wrong way it's Keynesian top down spending and they don't they don't reform the tax code ever one one one quick thing on that Larry you know in our country our FICA tax payroll tax is 15.3% you

1:46:40know half employer employee in Japan it's over 30% 31 to 32% and no limit no cap as we have in this country no wonder they're in the doldrums Steve more you must have been pretty happy though the New York trade court says you got to pay back the tariff revenues that the Supreme Court ruled out you must be a really happy camper well listen I mean I think that the $135 billion does it's a lot of money yeah this is the court even said when they made their decision that this is going to be a mess and that was one last through a statement they've ever made it is a mess it looks to me I'm not a lawyer but it's pretty clear from the law that now that the these tariffs have been deemed unconstitutional the money has to be repaid and then the question of to whom and probably probably what's going to happen is the money is going to go back to Walmart in Costco and other retailers and so on but the big question then Larry is what about consumers

1:47:42because consumers didn't pay some of the cost of these and so I don't know how to untangle that not but it's going to be a lot of lawsuits coming up in the in the months ahead yeah they can you know they look the customs bureau they have the good they they have all the information the receipt yeah they know who paid the tax and then the Treasury Department has something called the Bureau of fiscal services they can get the money out but your last point is in point I don't I don't see how consumers get the money I just don't you know let me just say one thing about that can I just say one question yeah I think these big what the big backstores and the super you know the huge retailers like the Wal-Mart they would be smart I think to to some provide rebates or you know cut prices or something like yeah yeah cut prices exactly yeah yeah I mean I think cut cutting prices would be smart for them on several fronts it would show the world that they would have had lower prices all along but for the tariff so there would be a very

1:48:42strong political argument against tariffs which they don't like particularly a country like a company like Walmart and right now it would also endear them to the administration so I mean sort of an odd political one too but I think it'd be very effective yeah I'm all I'm all I'm all for it let's take a break okay we're going to come back to some other interesting stuff from the committee to unleash prosperity and I want to talk about the one talk about the long run economy because I think we are going to defeat Iran we are going to destroy the regime something good is going to come out of this and there's going to be a lot of prosperity in the Middle East and elsewhere because of what President Trump is doing we're talking to Steve Forbes chairman and editor-in-chief of Forbes media we're talking to Steve Moore who's coming on as radio host of more money right after this show and most of these same radio stations we're talking

1:49:43of Liz Peak box news contributor and columnist I'm Cudlow we'll be right back the Larry Cudlow show on the red apple podcast network to the Larry Cudlow show entertaining and informative on the red apple podcast network we're talking freedom and prosperity with Steve Moore it's got more money coming up at WBC right after the show and most of these same radio stations the great Steve Forbes chairman and editor-in-chief of Forbes media Liz Peak box news contributor Steve Moore just want to pick up one thing I really love this thing from the hotline unleash prosperity hotline since 1989 okay it's a long time everybody everybody has gotten wealthier in this country and you have the great chart here but I'll just walk through it quickly the top 1 percent yep

1:50:48they're the leaders over 800 percent increase for the top but the next 9 percent by 600 increase then you go into the middle class roughly 40 percent of the people they have nearly a 600 percent increase in their wealth and then here's the one I like the best the bottom 50 percent since 1989 have increased their wealth by a little over 400 percent so every a rising tide is lifting all boats and that's the way free market enterprise free market capitalism free enterprise should work Steve Moore it's a very important chart is he not there that's a pity sorry the irony of that chart by the way Larry is that that was a part of a lost regional article talking about the the inequality and wealth it's very deleted and so just to be clear though those are those numbers are not adjusted for inflation

1:51:52but even adjusting for inflation you're seeing enormous gains and wealth over the last 35 years this was as I always say this is basically the economy that's been bookended by Reagan and and Trump and and so these are amazing numbers with respect to wealth and every income group got richer and the right the love to all of these people got a little richer faster than these people that's their that's their complaint and everybody's doing better and if you looked at the tax cuts Steve for yeah so Steve Moore saying their book ended essentially by Reagan tax cuts and Trump tax cuts okay middle income people and lower middle income people have benefited enormously in fact I know in Trump 1.0 we did these numbers with Kevin has it and so forth people at the middle and the lower the actually the lower income people actually had the highest percentage gain of after tax income and what what what what that underscores is as you say

1:52:56about the rising tide lifts all boat and a couple of things on that one is in terms of getting that point across the people Liz has a good point about Walmart and Costco but also he should index I know he doesn't want to do it index the capital gains especially on health care costs and on health care costs push HR departments to have people have more h more love 401k like plans in their health care plans where they control the money not the employer and 20 the average family cost Larry is about $28,000 a year which is why take home pay hasn't risen as much as it should it's going up but if you if you gave people a kind of choice of a catastrophic plan that they'd have to pay out of pocket 8,000 but could keep the other 20,000 you know what would people would take so as we get more free markets in health care I think you're going to see an even more prosperous middle class and lower income people moving up the ladder and their quality of life improves

1:54:01there's not a big quality of life gap anymore between the middle class and the upper class and the lower classes so well that's a great tribute to free enterprise imagine wonderful why not go um Liz peak uh it's going to be a triumph in Iran and the regime's going to be removed I don't know who's going to replace it or what but it's going to be better than the one now all's I'm saying is I just want that you get rid of these the mollas in this regime whoever takes over it's going to be better if they have potentially a good economy I'm thinking you know when you put freedom back into the calculation you're going to get a lot more prosperity you're going to get a lot more investment you're going to get a lot more trade the whole premise of the Abraham Accords in Trump one which accompanied five or six countries with Israel the whole premise was investment in trade and the likelihood is once the Iranian you know once the Iranian

1:55:06regime is destroyed you're going to see an expansion of the Abraham Saudi Arabia is going to come they're all going to come in and you'll see the potential in the Middle East for phenomenal prosperity Liz that that's just that's just my vision here I think that's totally right Larry and I don't even think that's wildly optimistic if you have a neutral Iran think of the money that has been going towards terrorism and and basically defending against terror plots from Iran in all of those countries and historically a lot of people don't understand that the Arab countries didn't want to deal with each other much less with Iran or with Israel I mean it has been an area of constant bickering and feuding if you just get a neutral Iran imagine the progress that could be made by the way nothing can go forward in Gaza while Hamas is still in control funded by Iran so that is another enormous opportunity I mean everybody would like to see the Palestinians

1:56:07have a Gaza homeland that is actually rebuilt and is okay to live in but I mean the opportunities are endless we've all let's look the Middle East is already booming in terms of Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabian Dubai because they have so many unbelievably good assets including obviously energy but that's where data centers are going that's where commerce they have become the Dubai is the banking center that Singapore was briefly I don't know why they've lost so much ground to Dubai but they have so the potential is there without a doubt and I think we're moving around as a constant threat to all those countries is it would be an unbelievably gigantic achievement Steve Moore the Middle East the Middle East will be overtaking Europe Europe in Europe at least Western Europe has gone completely wrong direction I don't you know maybe a little bit in Italy but I just don't see anything any big changes in Europe kind of lost them there yeah I but I Larry you're right Europe

1:57:17is just can't get out of its own way Europe is sporadic they're just the Europe you're accused from Poland which has been a great economic success story so good I think there's good good things to come I gotta jump low show Saturday mornings at 10 if you like the podcast share it with your friends and listen anytime at wabcradio.com and download the wabcradio app hit that subscribe button on all major podcast platforms plus follow wabc on social on Instagram TikTok Facebook and X see you next time for a new episode so you never have to wonder what the heck is going on here