The Illegal War on Iran Is Escalating… What Next?

0:00Hello, welcome, good evening, this is The Bright Life. I am Aaron Bistani, tonight, of course I'm John, as everyone at Tuesday, by Kiran Andro, Kiran how are you? Well, all the better big here with you Aaron, always a pleasure, but like you, not getting as much sleep as I want at the moment because there's so much going on. It feels like so much is in flux, so it's difficult to stay across, but here we are. It's too much, right? It's too much, it's too much, and you know, for all sorts of reasons, I hope it quietens down soon, but at the moment, that doesn't look like it's going to happen any time soon. What I'd say to those people watching, you don't need to do this, you look after your mental health, all you need to do is just watch this show every night at 6pm, you can just cut the rest out, leave the sleep deprivation and having to troll through the sources to us here at Navarra Media. Our stories tonight, there's been further escalation in the war on Iran. There have been of course lies about Iran's imminent threat to US, Israel and others.

1:03Britain intensifies its status as a vassal state of Washington and reform are still crying about their defeat last week. Important stories as ever. If you'd like to support our work here at Navarra Media, you can sign up at Navarra Media.com-for-slash-support. And now of course, on this evening's show, let me know what you think in the comments here on the YouTube chat. You can, of course, you superchance as well, but if you want to support our work in a more meaningful ongoing way, Google take a lot of that cash, click the link in the description below. You can tell us what you're hearing right now. That was the moment a pair of missiles hit a site in Iran's capital, Tehran, as the US and Israel continued to escalate their illegal lives,

2:10Israel continue to escalate their illegal war against the country. In Tehran, the skyline is thick with smoke. After buildings in the city were struck both in the early hours of this morning and this afternoon. The US and Israel say they continue to target the country's political and military leadership while attempting to degrade its supply of weapons. But civilian targets have come under fire too. Tehran's Gandhi hospital has been hit, blowing up doors and windows and leaving the streets littered with debris. It's just one of seven hospitals, including one neonatal hospital across Iran, reported to a bin struck by US and Israeli weaponry. Fadosi Square, a major historical area in central Tehran, named after the country's most prominent poet, was also hit this morning along with police stations, government buildings and the offices of the country's national broadcaster, the IRIB. There have also been reports of bombing tactics that we've seen before in Gaza. A drop site news has reported on the use of a double tap bombing in Tehran's Nalofa Square.

3:10That's a densely populated, generally middle-class part of the city, in which more than 20 people have been reported killed. A double tap is when one bomb is dropped, which subsequently tracks civilians in emergency services who come to the aid of those injured. But for a second, a larger strike takes place. That creates, of course, maximum damage and casualties. One witness described the scenes to drop site news saying this. We were sitting here around 8.30 pm and suddenly there was the noise and explosion. We got up and a few people ran away. We turned around to get up alongings and we saw that blood was spraying everywhere. Someone's hand had fallen on the floor, a head had fallen on the floor. There were scalps torn off, hands severed, a few people were laying here, all cut up and two people were martyred. Obviously, we don't want to show images of those kinds of things, but at the Varamedia we think it is important to convey the severity and the violence that is presently happening. US and Israeli strikes have also taken place in other parts of Iran. In Gom, the Israeli military says it has hit the assembly of experts.

4:14That's the 88 strong council of Islamic jurists who are reportedly gathered in the religious city to select the country's next supreme leader. We don't yet know what the casualties of that attack were. There are various contrasting accounts. We'll try and report our best take on it on tomorrow's show. Across Iran, nearly 800 people have so far been killed. That's according to the country's red crescent, but the IDF has been busy elsewhere too. This morning, the Israeli military ordered its troops to seize new ground positions in Lebanon, essentially triggering a new ground invasion of that country's southern border. Israel also continues to bomb the country's capital, Barut. Several apartment blocks in southern Barut, sometimes referred to as a Hisbalah stronghold by the Western media, were attacked overnight, causing inhabitants to flee. Those strikes have caused many families to abandon their homes, forcing adults and children alike to spend the nights on the streets of the city. Others were accommodating schools where temporary shelters have been set up.

5:16Hisbalah has been fighting back with these munitions seen fired from Barut's southern suburbs overnight. The United Nations said today that more than 30,000 people have so far been displaced across Lebanon by a new wave of fighting, while at least 52 people have been killed. Meanwhile, Iran continues to retaliate against Israel as well as US bases in the region and the countries that house the Tehran-Morch fresh waves of missiles into Israel last night, with a second wave today, with most apparently intercepted by the countries I and Don. Across Central Israel, 11 people were injured in the strikes with Israeli media saying they were caused by a shrapnel and falling missile parts. The media is also reporting that Iran may have launched a missile carrying fragmentation warhead that caused its shrapnel to fall into wide areas. But Israel also doesn't appear keen on people finding out the size of the attack they're coming under. This is the moment a CNN Turkey journalist tried to broadcast an image of the scale of Iran's missile attacks on the country.

6:20It's a very good thing. So the camera is on. Ok. The camera is on. Ok. You can take the picture. Ok. Give me your phone. Give me your phone. Yes, it's on. It's on. We're sending it. Yes. Ok. It's on. Stop. Stop. It's an interesting, there's countries meant to be a democracy, but you can't actually report what's going on there. I mean, if that's China or Russia, we're told that that means, look, there's no free press here. They have state handlers stopping an independent press actually relaying the truth to a global audience. Of course, it's different with Israel. It's not just different with Israel. Actually, they're the good guys. And we also get to fund them. That's the story we're told, anyway. Iran has inflicted greater damage in the Gulf states than on Israel. Iraq so have continued in against rather many places across the region, including Amman, Bahrain, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates.

7:21In Saudi Arabia, the US Embassy in Riyadh was hit by a drone causing a pretty huge blaze and prompting staff to evacuate. It's now been shut down along with the Embassy in Kuwait. And the US has ordered some diplomatic staff to leave the region. That's a little difficult, though, given thousands of flights around the world have been cancelled, following the closure of almost all the airspace over West Asia. Meanwhile, in gas and oil prices have soared while global shares have tumbled, impacting economies, pensions and savings around the world and creating even greater uncertainty. Of course, we thought that was all behind us, Benjamin Netanyahu, how did I write this? Remember when interest rates go up and you can't afford to turn on the heating, this is an illegal war kicked off by the US and Israel. And it's almost that we had too much good news. For about 18 months, we had rising rail wages, we had interest rate cuts, we had inflation, falling. It wasn't a land of milk and honey, but the years of COVID and the energy price crisis

8:24with Russia, Ukraine was behind us. People maybe could feel a little bit wealthier, a little bit better off. The government could take on things like NHS waiting, less and whatnot. This is now really put a spanner in the works today, we've seen not just rising energy prices, but also rising costs of borrowing for the UK, we've seen falls in stock markets across Europe. So there's two things, I take what you're saying, I think the idea that things were getting better, maybe some people would contradict that or feel that that wasn't the case for them. But you're right, let's put it like this, there was certainly more stability, Aaron. I don't know if there was growth or growth was picking up compound on previous years or the NHS waiting times were going to be cut significantly going forward if this didn't happen. But what I do think you're absolutely right on is that there was a sense of more stability after certainly the inflation that COVID caused, right?

9:25And this has completely sent all of that, well, it's jeopardised all of it, right? It's not saying it's sent it into a tailspin yet because this is very, very new, this is very fresh, so I don't want to get carried away with grand macroeconomic pronouncements or predictions when this is just unfolding, but you're absolutely right that this holds the promise of creating a protracted economic crisis in the global economy. And energy prices are obviously one of the factors, but also stock market turmoil and so on and the impacts that has on various other macroeconomic factors. I think that it's astonishing to me that leaders in Europe seem so willing to go along with this when there is only one way for this to go for consumers in their countries. There is only one way for this to go for consumers in their countries. But if they didn't have the foresight to see that in the most significant energy region

10:29of the world, a war breaking out and there being crossfire, collateral damage, attack on US bases in the countries that host those huge energy supplies, if they did not foresee huge turmoil being wrought on the global economy as a result of all this, then they absolutely are not fit to hold the office that they hold. But how this actually plays out in economic terms still remains to be determined. If the kind of spikes in prices we've seen today and in the tumble in areas of the stock markets that we've seen today continue and solidify over periods of time and become you normal, absolutely we're going to see massive price, household, energy, price, inflation and that is really, really going to sting people. I mean there's a comment here saying good on care and pushing back on that liberal growth nonsense. We're not talking about growth, we're talking about the cost of energy and if the cost of energy go up, the cost of everything go up, inflation is up and of course you have

11:30to have interest rates going up, we don't have to but that's the economic orthodoxy. And of course we're highly leveraged debt heavy economies, people get squeezed. The reason why the tour has got 24% of the vote in the 2024 general election is because there have been a massive increase in interest rates and inflation over the preceding two years. That has huge political consequences, those are the kinds of things that turn societies upside down. Okay? Very, very important. And frankly, I think that the energy crisis of 2022, 2023, if we repeat that, if something similar happened and by the way I don't think that will happen, if you have to bet on this, this kind of crisis might last for a couple of weeks and there'll be some kind of resolution one way or another, right? We'll talk about why later on the show because it is a big crisis. But if we had something like 2022, 2023 happening again, I mean the political shocks would be extraordinary, extraordinary, we've already seen, I think the establishment in this country, the political establishment isn't free for, we've got, that's one of the stories tonight,

12:34but you ain't seen nothing yet. And look, here's where it gets crazy in the last 48 hours, we've actually seen a bigger spike in gas prices in Europe than we did in any two days at the start of the Russia Ukraine conflict. This is serious stuff, really serious stuff. And for the cost of borrowing to go up and for the FTSE to go down and for energy prices to go down all the same day is really unusual, is very, very, very unusual. And this is going to hit the common person just a bit a few years ago. You want to say what? Very briefly, just on that and related to the comment, I'll split the difference with you I think that we go from, at the moment, we go from stagnation slash managed decline to less managed decline in crisis, right? And so I think where we've been since the recovery so called from COVID and the reduction in inflation, which is undeniable, that was significant reduction in inflation, we've been back in stagnation managed decline territory, but we could very well be going back to the kind of stagnflation

13:39or high inflation of household energy prices and general inflation and because obviously it has a huge knock on effect, by the way, energy is an input into everything. So it will have an impact on other consumer goods and utilities, but we might be going back to crisis, crisis mode. All right, that is downtown, I mean, that is, that's like Trafalgar Square, or Leicester Square. Kiran, I mean, a few things, we've had all this economic news coming out today. We've had effectively this illegal war that's been cheered on in this country by the likes of Reform and the Conservative Party. Now, of course, these are political parties that talk about reducing immigration and looking after small business, creating potentially failed state, another Syria of 93 million people and creating another energy crisis like 2022, 2023 doesn't keep in my mind anyway, doesn't

14:45really align with those proclaimed objectives. If these guys, and I mean Farage, Tyson, Kevin Badenog, if they cheerlead this on, it does feel like the right are going to lose this mantle with regards to immigration because they think they can start the war, but stop the boats. And on the left, we've been saying that you can't do one without the other for a really long time. And when you look at somebody like Rupert Lowe, who's actually saying the same thing, I don't agree with the guy, but he's consistent, right? He's saying that now. It feels like the penny is dropping. And this country and Europe are going to experience the consequences of America being dragged into a war led by Israel, again, as we'll see in another story later on tonight. And Europe is going to get the refugees and the energy inflation. And it's been cheered on by the right. It does feel like it's a big risk for someone like Reform when they could be forming the next government. They're short-termist idiots.

15:46I mean, that's the simple answer. They are short-termist career-minded, myopic idiots, who, of course, have built their entire reputations and careers on hating migration and refugees and asylum and pushing back against things like the human rights convention. But then, of course, also benefit massively, politically, from weaponizing those very things. And so there is this kind of strange catch, 22, where I think in the short term, they're cheering on this war, they are saying that we need to support Donald Trump and MAGA and Israel at all costs, because there are allies. And then the longer term, they don't even think about these consequences about the possible impacts on their political careers later on, because they're so short-termist in their thinking. I really, it's really extraordinary to me how short-termist they are in their thinking,

16:52given that sooner or later, Trump isn't going to be there. We might have a greater Israel by then, which, by which I mean, absorption of more of the land and a hedge more than the region, a unipolar single hedge more than the region. But Trump isn't going to be there forever. The political landscape will significantly shift, and then these people will either be dealing with a massive refugee crisis, which, as you rightly say, will lap the shores of Europe and Britain inevitably, for ours would say, they should stay put in the Middle East. Yeah, you can't do that. You can't do that. Well, that's what they said. We can just leave the refugee convention, and we'll pull up the drawbridge. But also, by the way, let's say Britain does that, let's say that 10 million people are displaced from Iran and Iraq and let's say, let's say that, and none of them come to UK. So you're basically saying they can all go to France, Germany, Spain, Italy, your biggest trading partners, and you're saying that fundamentally, look, if 10 million people come to Europe and one guy, that's going to collapse, that's going to collapse, political consent in Europe is going to create all kinds of political crises in this continent. So you're basically saying, it's up to you guys, again, is it worth it?

17:54For what? What's the upside here? What's the upside for Europe? We get the refugees in the energy inflation, and it's being cheered on by the Royal other clapping seals, as they always do, as they always do. But I do think here and at this time, it's just so brazen. It is so brazen. There's been so little effort to generate political consent for any of this, including in America. It's also possible that they're just one-trick ponies who suffer from extreme lack of political imagination, Aaron, because they built their entire careers and their political identities on opposing small boats, migrants, refugees, and they are so stuck in that process, they're so addicted to that way of doing, of being a demagogue or being demagogues and making people fearful and ensuring that they gain political capital from that fear, that they continue to do it even when it's potentially to their own detriment. So we get Prime Minister Farage and so we get a reform government, and that coincide, heaven forbid, by the way, but let's say we do it, it coincides with the worst egress

18:59from Iran. What does egress mean? People leaving outflow of people, leaving Iran because of a refugee crisis. That will obviously have a catastrophic impact on a prospective Prime Minister Farage's career and Prime Minister's ship, but I just wonder whether their short termism is such that they don't know how to change the habit of a lifetime right now. That's what I'm really worried about in terms of their ability to govern. This is something that the centre left has always thrown on the radical left, you're not serious about governing. Believe me, Corbyn and McDonald had an actual substantial agenda for governing, a nation state of 16 million people, times 10 compared to these guys, and it's really, really worrying. You can't just govern by press release and agit prop and guerrilla marketing, which is again all these people know. This is just a really extraordinary moment in global affairs. There are so many huge stories every single night.

19:59Navarro wants to cover all of them, whether that's with our social first, reporting, articles, podcasts, or here on YouTube. If you want to support our work, then go to Navarro.media-supportonavarami.com-support. Help us build a new media for different politics. Something I was being told, a hell of a lot of the tail end of last week with our coverage regarding that by-election with the Greens 1, extraordinary, majority of 4,500, 4,400. People said to me, wow, you went there, you thought they could win us? Well, of course, because I went up there two, two and a half weeks before, three weeks before. I spoke to people. It was very obvious that the Greens could win. I thought they would win on the day. I thought Labour would probably sneak it on postal votes, because that's how Labour always does things, right? But no, they won by a huge landslide. The Greens thought on the night they were going to win by 500 to 1,000. Very few other outlets are doing this granular reporting on these kinds of stories. Great video, I think, anyway, of course. I'd say that I help make it on Gordon and Denson's, got 1,400,000 views. We can only do that kind of reporting thanks to our supporters.

21:00If you want to ensure we can do more of it, both before, during and after this May's local elections, go to the Navarro.media.com-support. Let's go to our next story. One of the major mysteries of a U.S. present Donald Trump's illegal war with Iran is, why? Why did Trump choose this past weekend to start a conflict that's now spreading like wildfire across the region, not to mention heavily impacting global security, energy prices and diplomacy? Well, here's the explanation that Trump gave just hours after setting the world on fire. They rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions, and we can't take it anymore. Instead they attempted to rebuild their nuclear program and to continue developing long-range missiles that can now threaten our very good friends and allies in Europe, our troops

22:05stationed overseas, and could soon reach the American homeland. Just imagine how emboldened this regime would be if they ever had and actually were armed with nuclear weapons as they means to deliver their message. For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests. So the justification the President gives there is that Iran has tried to continue its development of nuclear weapons and it poses an imminent threat to U.S. allies in Europe as well as U.S. forces in the Middle East and even the continental United States itself. No mention of Israel there, the country that joined Trump in his attack on Iran. There was also this bit from Trump's speech. Finally to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom

23:09is at hand. Stay sheltered, don't leave your home, it's very dangerous outside, bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations. For many years you have asked for America's help, but you never got it. No President was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a President who is giving you what you want. So let's see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. As we'll see later on Trump said something completely different within 24 hours. Anyway, more on that in a few minutes. Trump isn't explicitly making regime change an objective of the war there, but he certainly

24:12suggesting that the US and Israeli bombing is intended to create a political vacuum that the Iranian people should try to fill. Now there is only one country in the entire region, perhaps even in the entire world, that has a clear interest in Iran being left in chaos with no government and factional internal groups vying to take it over as a dysfunctional, broken state, a war zone. That country isn't the US. Wide-a-term oil in the Middle East, dead service members, disruptions to oil and gas supplies and a global reputation for making an illegal mess and not cleaning it up, don't serve core US interests, but a broken Iran, preferably one without any chance of building power and influence in the region, does serve Israel and its political and territorial ambitions. And who cares if the US ruins itself in the process? Well, last night, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was asked to clarify Trump's grounds for war and what he said was truly eye-opening. The second question that been asked is, why now?

25:14Well, there's two reasons why now. The first is it was abundantly clear that if Iran came under attack by anyone, the United States or Israel or anyone, they were going to respond and respond against the United States. The orders had been delegated down to the field commanders. It was automatic and, in fact, it dared to be true because, in fact, within an hour of the initial attack on the leadership compound, the missile forces in the south and in the north for that matter had already been activated to launch, in fact, those had already been pre-positioned. The third is the assessment that was made that if we stood and waited for that attack to come first before we hit them, we would suffer much higher casualties. And so the President made the very wise decision. We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces and we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties and perhaps even higher those killed. And then we would all be here answering questions about why we knew that and didn't have it.

26:15There you have it, folks, and mission from a senior member of Trump's cabinet that the US went to war with Iran because Israel wanted to. And the logic is batshit. So let's break it down. The United States knew that Israel was about to attack Iran and then knew that if that happened, Iran would launch missiles at American bases in the region. So the conditional is this. If Israel attacks Iran, Iran will attack US bases, but Iran is saying to Israel, hey, maybe hold back on your plans to start a regional war, potentially even a global conflict. The US decided to go to war instead with Iran and join Israel. Iran wasn't the imminent threat under those circumstances. Israel was. And remember, all of this is happening in the context of what were ongoing US Iran negotiations, which apparently now are meaningless because Israel decided to do something totally different. This is a country of 10 million people. Just hours before the bombing began, a month from a minister who was mediating those

27:17talks was doing the news round, saying that peace was on the table after Iran agreed to know nuclear weapons, no stockpiles of enriched uranium, and comprehensive inspections. In other words, a much better deal than the one Barack Obama negotiated over a decade ago. This would have been a triumph of diplomacy for Trump. But who definitely doesn't want a US-Iran peace deal? You guessed it, Israel. That's the last thing Israel wants. Iran coming closer to any kind of international acceptance. By the way, that's true. So under Reza Parlivi, Israel has absolutely no domestic political interest in Iran being remotely autonomous and able to assert its own interests. Donald Trump, you just got played by your buddy, BB Netanyahu, Bigley. Not only did he play you, Netanyahu told his own people that he played you. We showed this clip last night, but it's worth playing again. It's Benjamin Netanyahu speaking at once the bombing had begun.

28:42If you're listening on the podcast, that's what Netanyahu said there in Hebrew is that having the US on the side in the fight against Iran is allowing him to do exactly what he's wanted to do for 40 years. Just to be clear, we'll talk about what that means in a minute. That was repeated by Benny Gantz as well today. journalist Tucker Carlson has not been trying to expose Israel's oversized role in US foreign and domestic policy. Last night he brought the situation down. How did this tiny country with no resources and 9 million people convince the world's great superpower with the greatest military in history to do its bidding in a way that was going to hurt it? Well again, many layers to that question, but the most obvious and immediate answer is because BB told the president of the United States, you can join me or not, but I'm going in the Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this in a call to Congressional leaders yesterday.

29:42He said Israel said they were going and at that point, you really only have two choices. You can get on board and try and help or contain Israel's war, that's part of the calculation here, Israel's going, let's try and keep this within bounds, let's try to be a moderating force on this adventure, whatever it turns out to be, or you can tell Israel no and they'll just do it. And if they did it, that would not protect us because there are hundreds of thousands of Americans in the Middle East, both in uniform and out, civilians and military personnel. And there are also the world's most important oil projects, oil, energy infrastructure, oil and gas, which has more than any other factor determining effect on the global economy. So everybody needs their oil and gas period, you can't change that, sorry.

30:44And so if that infrastructure is damage or destroyed, it affects all of us, all of us everybody, but us. So you can't just let Israel go and do this. Now of course, there's a third potential theoretical option, which you say to Israel, which is a client state, which we pay for, whose creation we made possible, you say, no, we're not doing that. I get it. You don't like, yeah, I told you don't like Iran, but this is bad for us and we're not going to let you do this. And if you do it, we're going to, I don't know what cut off aid, something. We can apply the pressure that is inherently ours to apply since we're paying for all of this. So that was not even on the table, that's never been on the table. He's right. I mean, it does, it doesn't make you one of this journey that's like a Carlson's on of being a quite intrepid truth teller about this kind of stuff is, is a story for another day. Before we go on, I also just want to talk quickly about what Netanyahu means when he's

31:46saying he's been waiting for this for 40 years. He means fundamentally, he's been waiting to do this since the creation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, which of course was 47 years ago. And I think Benny Gans actually said 47 years, he's been waiting 47 years. So this is not about Iran having nuclear weapons, because of course Iran wasn't developing nuclear weapons 47 years ago. This is about a, a state he doesn't like. And by the way, they don't like him. I get it. But that's the explanation here. This is about eliminating Iran as a peer rival in the region, of course, Iran is not a peer rival anymore. There probably was before October 7th, but slowly its ability to project power has been degraded. But that's what this is all about. And there's a reason why Israel is so welcoming and accommodating to smaller minorities, right? Because of course, you know, you've got 8 million Jewish Israelis and 10 million people in Israel overall. We're not including the occupied territories, etc. You're 10 million people in Israel, 2 million of those are Arabs, okay?

32:47That's not many people. But they feel a lot bigger. They feel like a large nation compared to the Jews, right? They feel like a much bigger people compared to Kurds in Iraq, right? Which is why they generally, or the marinites in Lebanon, which is generally why they kind of like these smaller groups. And they like these smaller groups because they can be useful in disintegrating the large nation states who they view themselves in competition with. The project of Israel gaining regional dominance goes hand in hand with the demise of Egypt, Turkey, Iran. Egypt was done a long time ago. Egypt was done a really long time ago. That's basically where Israel was focusing its attentions in the 1950s. Now it's Iran, okay? It was Syria not so long ago. It wasn't really a regional player. Now it's Iran. And tomorrow it will be Turkey. That's the plan. A greater Israel where you don't have any peer rivals in the region. And again, you can say, well, that's what Israel is going to do.

33:48That's there. That's the set of national, you know, security objectives. That's what they're going to pursue. I don't agree with it. Of course, I don't agree with it. Why are we helping them? Why are we helping them dissolve the entire state system across West Asia? Why are we helping create multiple failed states? They bombed Iraq when Saddam was there. They're attacking Iran, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon. They've attacked Egypt. Everybody. Now, of course, in the Western media, you're told, well, that's because these countries are anti-Semitic. And of course, there are many people in all parts of the world who are anti-Semites. But Netanyahu is very clear there, wasn't he, Karen? He said, this is something that entered his brain 47 years ago. This is about the elimination of a certain state. And people have to be really clear about this. It'll be Turkey next, Turkey, 95 million people, nuclear threshold state. Big economy, these kinds of countries are not allowed to exist in the same neighborhood

34:54as Israel. Yeah. And I think it's worth pointing out that Neftarli Bennett, who is an Israeli prime minister, former prime minister, no less, was only two weeks ago talking about the menace of Turkey in a news interview. And that is significant and relevant because probably next, we will start to see the war junkie that is Israel turning its attention towards Turkey, as you rightly say. I think it's worth Aaron talking briefly about why Israel is doing this right now. It's that the reasons have been expressed widely, but we'll restate them. And I think it's worth just focusing on why, why is this the window of opportunity? Because I think it also answers the point that you made about why are we doing this? What do we, why is America doing this? I think, so Israel is doing this for hegemony in the region, that's widely stated. It's doing this to eliminate any counterweight, check or balance or counterbalancing force in the region, that's obvious and that's been stated widely. And I think it's been done now for very specific reasons.

35:57Number one, Trump is in power and Trump for his own reasons is very, very closely aligned with Netanyahu and with Israel. And I think it's worth saying that one of those reasons is that this, for him, functions as powerful Epstein distractionism. I think it's important say that we didn't say on the estate show, I don't think it's come up yet tonight. That is definitely a significant factor for Donald Trump, a bi-extension for the United States. Because if we look at the approval ratings for this in the United States in Britain, they're very low actually. In the United States, at the last poll, I think it was a Reuters poll, 47% of Americans disapproved of this, 43%, sorry, disapproved of this, 27% approved, and 29% don't know. That's really dismal as a poll performance for approval of this. So why is Donald Trump doing this? He is uniquely close to Israel. All US presidents have been close to Israel, but he is uniquely close to Israel.

37:00There is now enough evidence for us to say that confidently, whether it's Jared Kushner, whether it's real estate, whatever it is, we could go on and on about it for ages. He is uniquely close to Israel. And Epstein Distractionism is definitely a factor in all of this, for Trump. So Netanyahu and Israel have very clearly identified that they have a unique opportunity in this administration that may never come again in the same way. And this speaks to the second point, why may it never come again in the same way? That actually in a kind of irony or in a counterintuitive way, or this gives us cause for longer term hope. The second reason that Israel is seizing this moment and seizing that the time is now, is because they know how deeply unpopular Israel has become in the rest of the world. Right? They know that in most countries in the world, public opinion has significantly shifted against Israel.

38:01And for that reason, they have to seize this moment because they don't know what's going to come in 5, 10, 15, 20 years. And it might not just be little civil, I mean, listen, I'm massively for BDS. And I think civil society movements do amazing things. But from the Israeli perspective, which is obsessed with the lens of the state and the military, they know that this is a real threat, not just because civil society groups have turned against Israel or popular, you know, demographics have turned against Israel. They're worried that the next generation of politicians will have been conditioned by the past two to three years. They're really worried that the next generation of politicians across the allied countries, the West will not be Kierstauer and Donald Trump and those guys. It will be people who cut their teeth learning about this issue since October 7, 2023 and the genocide in Gaza that's been, you know, on our television screens very clearly. So that is why they are seizing this moment like no other. It's Trump alignment or administrative alignment with the U.S.

39:02and knowing that Trump won't be there for very long, even if it seems like he'll be there forever right now. And the second thing is related, they're terrified of the next generation of politicians in Western countries. They've basically got two years of this guy right who is increasingly, you know, cognitively challenged and very much compromised by, frankly, U.S. pedophile elites. Eyes are slowly opening everywhere, even amongst sways of the Craven liberal mainstream media who never, ever criticized Israel. This was from CNN with Jake Tapper and former U.S. intelligence deputy director Beth Sana. The actual preemptive strike was because Israel was about to attack Iran to destroy its weapons, its missiles. And because, and we had learned, the U.S. had learned that if Israel did that, Iran was then going to attack U.S. bases in the region.

40:04Is that right? Do I have that right? Is that what they're saying? That's what they said this time. Does that count as... That's not the definition of preemptive. If you are taking an action that creates someone doing something, then you're preempting a theoretical. Right. And, and it also, I feel like it's very interesting that this is all based on the idea that number one, we can't control Israel and number two, our entire war with Iran is because of what Israel is doing. In other words, Israel is the tail wagging the dog. The tail wagging the dog. She put it pretty perfectly, right? Yeah, absolutely. I wish I thought that phrasing this context myself, it is the tail wagging the dog. But the reason that it's able to use its smaller leverage and exert an outsized effect is precisely for the reasons that we've discussed, which is Israel.

41:05And actually, this is of a piece with this kind of provide a template, if you like, for what we can expect in the future. If Israel is able to consolidate all its power in the region, kill off all of its counterbalancing regional hedge models like Iran, and exert total hegemony over the region. Because Israel knows that popularity in the world has waned so massively, it's ability to project itself, subjugate the Palestinians, subordinate them, colonize overland, is going to be defined by the resources that it accrues now. Yeah, so true. So that is why they're boxing out at this moment in time, making the absolute most of this moment in time, grab Epstein, all of that figures in it, and grabbing as many resources as they possibly can now, taking out as many, and making protection their force as much as they possibly can, so that it's almost like an insurance policy, it's almost like an insurance policy on the future,

42:07because they know that things have shifted very significantly outside of the corridors of power, and those who are susceptible to the Israel lobby, and so on. But they're really, really trying to make the very best of that as an insurance policy for the future. Benjamin Netanyahu has appeared on Fox News to arrest the allegations that he leads the US present around by the nose. You know, there are people that say, well, the Prime Minister of Israel dragged Donald Trump into it, and as somebody that's been friends with him over 30 years, nobody drags Donald Trump into anything, number one, but I want to get your reaction to that. He looks like the devil, right? I mean, you're not meant to say that he looks like the face shape as he starts something, he looks like the devil. He looks like a gargoyle. He's in his mid-70s, 74-75s? I think he's 76. 76. I mean, that's something we haven't talked about, is that he also wants a legacy, right? And it's one hell of a legacy to take out Assad, Hamanei, Hamass.

43:11Mortality figures in the political imaginary of these people when they're in their 70s. Now, we've clicked that because it's hilarious. He literally looks like Satan. What Netanyahu goes on to say is that nobody pushes Donald Trump around, and obviously he'd say that. But we don't believe it. Nobody believes it. Not even it turns out Marco Rubio, not even Donald Trump believes it anymore. Kiran, before you go to our next story, we talked about Netanyahu, we've talked about the cause of a greater Israel. We haven't talked about, and we won't see it, the speech of Gavin Newsom. And I think what people are really underestimating is that, oh, we're going to have a left candidate for the Democrats who's going to seize this mantle and criticize Israel. No, that is going to be a mainstream position. Gavin Newsom is trying to win the center ground of the Democrats for his campaign to be their candidate in the presidential election.

44:12By criticizing Israel, he's literally saying about Israel in Iran, why did you bomb a school? Why did we bomb a school? Why are 160 kids dead? Gavin Newsom. And I think when I saw that, Kiran, when I saw that, I just thought, okay, this is different now. Something really significant I've kind of shifted. And he thought, just one before, APAC is obviously a highly bipartisan. APAC is the American Israeli lobby group, basically, that tries to sow positive relations for Israel inside America, among politicians and civil society groups into the future. APAC is very bipartisan. It doesn't discriminate. It loves Republicans, it loves Democrats. And it has huge purchase suction on both parties. And I know they've donated money to Gavin Newsom in the past. And so, you know, anything that Gavin Newsom does will be, I think, a political calculation. So this is not to, but you're right. You're right. If people like that, who have previously taken money from APAC,

45:12feel that their political antenna, I think it's got a good political antenna. I don't like him at all. But he's obviously reasonably successful and talented as a politician. If somebody with a political antenna like that is able to acknowledge the switch in the middle ground, or in the mainstream of American public opinion and society and politics, such that he is now saying new things around Israel, and new levels of criticism leveled it, Israel. I think that that is a significant stepchege. It's not a sea change, maybe, but it is a stepchege. Well, I think it shows that politics has definitely shifted. I mean, the equivalent in this country is web-streeting, intentionally leaking private WhatsApp messages to Peter Mannelton to exonerate himself, criticizing Israel saying, actually, it's a genocide, right? This is a guy who's a member of Labor Friends of Israel. It's not the bad signal, right? It's his constituents. Actually, I agree with you. It's a genocide. That's new. That is new. And I think what you said a few moments ago, you look at Newsom, you look at Streeting,

46:14that is the other side of the coin to how belligerent Israel is now being, right? These two things explain the other. We're going to go to our next story tonight. We are going to go probably for an hour and forty tonight. Sorry, guys. Sorry to the producers here. Sorry to you, Karen. Oh, I'm happy. He wants to, you know, I'm not going to say that. You love being here. We love having you on the show. If you want to support our work and pay for the lights to stay on and create more of these shows and talk about the stories, frankly, legacy media is generally not interesting. Go to nirvami.com forward slash support. Help us build a new media for eight different politics. We're getting there, folks. We're getting there. We are really getting there. Help us get even further. Go to nirvami.com forward slash support. I criticize Kistama a lot on this show you might have noticed. And that's the right thing to do.

47:14After all, he's the prime minister he governs in my name and yours. And therefore, he should be the most scrutinized person in British public life. But in recent days, he's done something significant and welcome. This was Stama in Parliament on Monday. Exposing our military personnel to action that risks their lives, making sure that it is lawful before we ask them to do that. I think that is the duty of the prime ministers, a previous prime minister to take an exact the same approach. I will, of course, read the shadow attorneys advice, but I'm very clear in the advice that I received. And I will not commit, I will not commit, I'm not a true personnel, to unlawful action. That is not what they would expect and deserve. They are entitled to better than that. That was Stama putting clear water between London and Washington on the illegal war, now being waged against Iran, which has no plan or objectives, and involves the bombing of large civilian populations, frankly, war crimes, piling up by the day.

48:17Now, a war starmer has agreed to is allowing the US to use British bases to launch attacks on Iranian missile stores. He says that's a defensive role, allowing the US to stop Iran from attacking British allies in the region, while protecting the roughly 150,000 British citizens around the Arabian Peninsula, mostly Angata and the UAE. But Stama only allowed the US access to those bases, including the Agha Garcia and the Cheyenne Islands, and Sunday nights, allegedly a good 40 hours after he was first asked to hand them over to the US for use in that illegal attack on Iran on Saturday. That was a request Stama refused. And US President Donald Trump is not happy. This was Trump speaking from the White House on Tuesday evening. I'm not happy with the UK either. That island that you read about, the lease, okay, he made it for whatever reason. He made a lease of the island.

49:17Somebody came and took it away from him, and it's taken three, four days for us to work out where we can land. There would have been much more convenient landing there as opposed to flying many extra hours. So we are very surprised. This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with. It's not Winston Churchill. By the way, I mean, it's not often talked about in British politics and British history, but Winston Churchill basically ended the British Empire and gave it all to the US. That's basically what he's asking for, right? I say that to somebody, of course, who welcome the end of the British Empire, but that's it. Will be your food, will be your subordinate, and we can sort of live in your shadow and bask in your glory. That's the deal. That's been the deal for eight years, and Trump's just so angry that for a brief moment, Britain didn't want to do it. At Trump's words, there are an elaboration on an interview he gave to the sun on Tuesday morning. There, the president said this. He has not been helpful. I never thought I'd see that. I never thought I'd see that from the UK.

50:17It's a different world, actually. It's just a much different kind of relationship that we've had with your country before. It's very sad to see that the relationship is obviously not what it was. Remember, Harold Wilson refused for Britain to participate in the Vietnam War. There are precedents for us not being entirely aligned with Washington. At Starmer's position, hardly made for a social media world, but reasonable, and certainly not gone. Ho has drawn the eye of those who basically see this country as the underling to Washington. They think that when Donald Trump says, jump, our job is to say how high. Here's Jeremy Hunt, former Chancellor of the Exchequer on LBC earlier today. For the UK, I think we've really got the worst of all worlds. On the one hand, America is questioning our loyalty, and that is very significant when it comes to, for example, their support in Ukraine, where we badly need them to carry on helping Ukraine with Stan the Russian onslaught.

51:22But on the other hand, we are going to be suffering far more than the American economy from the rise in oil and gas prices. When I was Chancellor, we used to have a ready reckiner. We'd say that if global oil and gas prices go up by 20%, inflation here will go up by 1%, and growth will go down by half a percent. We want stability in the Middle East, and that means not having an Iran with nuclear weapons, and we want to sustain American support for Ukraine. And on both those accounts, I think that means we should have been all in with the President. This is someone who you're either all in or you're out in the cold, and it seems to me we were neither. We were one moment we were against, then we said, okay, well, you can use our bases after all, and I don't think anyone really knew where we stood, and I think that was a failure of leadership. You don't want stability in the Middle East. You don't. You clearly don't. You want infinity displaced people. You want infinity refugees.

52:23You want infinity energy crises. This person was the former Chancellor of the Eastshaka. Okay, what things? What two things have the British public made very clear that they care most about over the last 10 years? What two things? It might not matter to you. What are the two things that really upset people? Migration, inflation. Energy bills, refugees. They have, right? There's a reason why reformer doing so and the polls. And they're saying, no, we want more. More. Because they can't understand the connection between start the war and start the boats. These people say they can't stand refugees. They love making more of them. More. More. It's not in this country's interest, and it's certainly not in the interest of West Asia, the Middle East. But if America does it, we have to do it. So he's not even talking about the concepts he claims he's talking about. We want stability on the Middle East. He doesn't want stability in the Middle East. He's saying, I will do what America wants. But what America wants is, you know, I have to cloak it in the language of stability in the Middle East.

53:24How is invading and occupying and bombing? Every single country in the region. How is that stability? You know, it's all well-earned. War is peace. And by the way, like I said before, we chance to each checker. No wonder this country was screwed after 2010. No wonder we got so poor so quickly. The cheering on a war which has seen energy prices go up more than they did at the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The cheering it on. We had the highest inflation in this country. I think actually had the largest fall in real wages in this country since the 1950s after the Russia-Ukraine war. That's happened. That's in the past, thank God. Of course, we've not fully recovered from it. That's like, let's do it again. Roll another one. Rewind. Take two. This was from Reform UK's Treasury spokesperson, Robert Generick. It's quite clear that the Prime Minister's failure to be a reliable ally. Oh, I haven't the beard. A reliable ally. So the United States, in this moment, has placed it under a lot of strain.

54:26And that has a cause for concern. You're only concerned should be about the people of this country and their well-being. Anyway, here goes on. The PM's response has been too slow. He should have made our bases available sooner. And he should have used what military assets we have to defend that base more rigorously than he did. The media has been at it as well. The telegraph ran with Trump's interview. Giving it the headline, I'm very disappointed in care. The express had pretty much the same headline. I mean, people don't really read the express anymore, fine. Saying Trump is very disappointed in the secure over Iran. Help on the Daily Mail. Went with the U.S. lambasts and ringing pearl clutching. And he says he's scared of his own voters. Bit of a dog whistle. Can have a chat. He's scared of his own voters. What do you think that means? I think it's clear what it means. I think it clearly means you're scared of Muslims. You're scared of people from the region who live in this country or have family members who live in this country.

55:27And who form an outsize part of your political base, Kirstalma. That's what it means. It means you're scared because reform of... Excuse me, Greens have just wanted a... An area with a large Muslim population. And so you're running scared and you're pandering to them. That's what she means. You're right. Absolutely right to call it out out out out out. It is a dog whistle. You won't go on another crazy military escalator. You won't do it right. Call over again. Because of Muslims. I mean, that's the level of debate in this country. One of the country's screwed, right? No, one that the country is screwed. This is the level of debate. You won't do the thing that Washington wants you to do. There's not a conversation about the national interests. It's because Muslims, right? I saw a great tweet today. It was by somebody who's on the right, I mean, the far right. And they said that most right wingers in this country aren't really right wing. They're just liberals. They're hate Muslims. And it was like a lipo went off. Yes, that's exactly right. They're just that tries to hate Muslims. That's the radical right in this country, okay?

56:29Code capital gains. Let the rich make as much money as they want. Infinity landlords. Screw the poor. Hate Muslims. That's conservative politics. By the way, that was the leader of your position. You might have forgotten. Someone who hopes to run the country, pretty much saying she'd do whatever America wanted her to do. No matter how illegal or how costly in terms of British military lives, that might be. These people love to bang on about sovereignty and taking back control. But actually, they want to be a vassal state. And I think about this a lot. I'd rather be the 51st state of America than what these people want. At least we get to vote on the president. The status quo in terms of Britain's relationship to the US. This facelage, this economic vassalage. And for these people, ideally a military vassalage too, is as the Boston Revolutionary said in the 1770s, we have an association with our representation.

57:29We're paying for US treasuries, a US world order. We have no say in it. Let's join. Let's be the 51st state. We can be like New York. We can be one of those states to get a Democrat. We can be important when they have the Democratic primary for the presidential candidate. We can get a left wing candidate in. We can get Bernie Mark II in. We can change the constitution. Mandani can be president. Let's do it. Let's join. I'd rather that than what we're doing now, which is this fake sovereignty, this fake independence we have as a country. And it's crazy that the Tories who talk about national interest sovereignty, independence, freedom, they want us to be the least free in the least sovereign this country's been. Ever. In that White House meeting, it wasn't just Stama who came in for criticism from Trump. The Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, has also refused the US permission to use his country's bases, even for so-called defense of his acts on Iran. Here's what Trump had to say about that. Spain has been terrible.

58:29In fact, I told Scott to cut off all dealings with Spain. First of all, it started when every European nation, it might request paid 5%, which they should be doing. And everybody was enthusiastic about it, Germany, everybody. And Spain didn't do it. And now Spain actually said that we can't use their bases. And that's a row. We don't want it. We could use their base if we want. We could just fly in and use it. Nobody's going to tell us not to use it. But we don't have to. But they were unfriendly. And so I told him, we don't want to. Spain has absolutely nothing that we need other than great people. They have great people. But they don't have great leadership. And as you know, they were the only country that in NATO would not agree to go up to 5%. I don't think they would agree to go up to anything. They wanted to keep it at 2%. And they don't pay the 2%. So we're going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don't want anything to do with Spain. A gangsterism.

59:29We're going to cut off all trade with Spain. Because NATO is about collective security. And by the way, Spanish troops were involved in Iraq and Afghanistan. Isn't that crazy? Isn't that crazy? The one time you actually have the part of NATO, which means you have the mobilization of collective security. It was for the United States after 9-11. Spanish were involved. And this is how they get treated. They're not even, he's saying, you're not a foreign country. We're going to fly more flying. By the way, Spain used to have a nuclear weapons program. I think if you're a Spanish nationalist on the left or the right, or whatever, of course, most of them on the right, but if you're a Spanish nationalist, if you're a serious Spanish nationalist, you love Franco or whatever, you're probably thinking, hey, you know what? Actually, we probably should. We should probably get that going again. And also, if you're on the left, why are we in NATO? Oh, they have to pay this much money. Why? Well, we've just lost this much trade with the US. Let's save 10 billion euros. Kiran, all of this is perhaps accelerationism of declided various areas,

1:00:34by which I mean this. These guys are so out of touch, Aaron. It's extraordinary to see Jerry Hunter, who's one of the stupidest people to ever be Chancellor Surely. Can we bait Doc? And all of the usual suspects in the British media, like the Express and the Mail, kind of getting behind something, not to mention Farage. All these guys lining up to get behind something that is empirically unpopular, something that we have evidence for show, is not popular with Virginia public either in the United States or in the United Kingdom. They're getting behind this war for the reasons if we go back to where we were earlier, downstream to where we were earlier, Israel's motives, Trump's motives. The opposition in this country, and the conservative opposition in this country, so-called, is getting behind something deeply unpopular for reasons that are so remote from their direct material interests. And like you say, Aaron, they are trying to,

1:01:36this support will, if it's effective, if it forces Britain to have been more involved, or whatever, or even if it doesn't, will have very serious implications for British consumers. And like you said, household bills, prices of everyday commodities, very, very serious for voters. Unless it's part of some, I don't know, giant, perfidious sort of supervillain-like ploy where they push energy bills up so high that Kierstover loses the next election on the basis that the economy is fucked. But I don't think that they've got the kind of foresight to think like that. I think that they're just supporting Donald Trump because they want to be contrarian and because they're so used to supporting Donald Trump. Hold your horses on that, Kierren. Because our next story talks about all of this, about reform and what's going on on the domestic scene. We have a comment here, Mike working for Green 3766 with $5 Canadian dollars. Aaron, do you think Michael, Michael Walker, spoke too soon, praising my Kanye Davos.

1:02:37I'm in the Canadian state. I don't think he did. I think that Kanye is, ultimately, Canada's not a great power, right? It's not in the security council. It doesn't have nuclear weapons. The ones that probably do have a bit more leverage. France. And Britain doesn't have that much leverage. It's so dependent on US energy. France kind of has some leverage. It has its own nuclear capability. It has nuclear energy, of course. It's a huge food exporter. It was fourth-large producer of wheat. Americans love their French wine and cheese. Good luck. Britain is a bit different. So I think with Canada, they've got to build up that strategic and technological autonomy. That's going to take so long time. That takes 5, 10, 15 years. I know in democracy's where we struggle to think in these kinds of time frames. But that's the task now. I think for Europe especially, we're going to have to do a couple from the United States. Minotarily, technologically, economically, politically. Doesn't mean America's always going to be bad or the enemy. But Europe clearly has to stand up on its own two feet. Great quote. I can't remember who it was from.

1:03:37It was from a French politician, I think. They said Europeans can't, you know, outsource European security every four years to swing voters in Wisconsin. Yeah. I mean, it's mental. Yeah. Because I stopped doing that. It's not a good idea. But that's going to take time. Last week, reform lost in the Gordon and Denton bylection. But even though they came a respectable second, a beating labor in a seat where Kirstoff was party previously one over 50% of the vote, they were very, very bad losers. Things were so bad that critics of the party on social media renamed Matt Goodwin, the party's candidate in the seat, Matt Badloss. And the winging and complaining was still going as of yesterday afternoon with Goodwin saying this, what I'll be saying. If we do not sort this out, Nick, what I'm worried about,

1:04:37given the ongoing demographic changes in our country, high levels of immigration, high levels of demographic change, our democracy, Nick, my big concern. I haven't actually said this publicly since the election, is increasingly our democracy will start to look like some corrupt political system closer to say Lebanon or Sierra Leone than a modern Western liberal democracy. That is what I'm concerned about, Nick. Let's finish then with how you and your colleagues at reform want to see. So no foreign-born voters. What about postal votes? How would the system look under this? Well, remember Tony Blair, again, it all goes back to Blair, but he was the man who introduced widespread postal voting. Well Nigel Farage has said over the weekend correctly, is let's restrict postal voting to people who are disabled or very elderly. Let's not make postal voting a sort of mainstream part of the democratic process because Nick, we don't know what's going on behind closed doors. Nigel Farage has always brought up his memory of somebody turning up at a polling station

1:05:37with a Sainsbury's bag full of 1,000 votes. You know, this should not be happening. We're not living in the Middle East, Nick. We're living in one of the greatest democracies in the history of the world. And you're not just doing this lastly because you're a bad loser. This is because the democratic process went through then at the particular by-election constituencies he spoke, and you didn't like the result. Isn't that the reality? Let me just leave you with this, Nick. I don't mind beating the Labour Party in the sixth safest Labour seat. I think this by-election was a success for reform. But I tell you, I've seen this with my own eyes up close. I'm deeply, deeply concerned about where our democracy is heading. He's crashing out. I mean, we've called him Matt Badloss. Let's call him Matt Headloss. He's gone. You know, Gary Ennicka and Gaser got that yellow card at World Cup 90. I feel like saying that's a forage. Maybe I have a word. I mean, can you be crying, by the way? I mean, I shouldn't say that because I don't know. Let me rephrase that. He looks like he's been crying prior to talking to ABC.

1:06:37His eyes are red and blood short. He lost by four and a half thousand votes. If he lost by 200 votes, right? You can do this whole... Stop the steel thing. You can. Doesn't mean it's right. Yeah. It's plausible. You lost by four and a half thousand votes. Now, call me old-fashioned. But when an insurgent campaign comes from nowhere, it's prevailed in a by-election. Isn't the media meant to speak to the winner? That's how it used to work anyway. Yet I've seen more of Matt Goodwin, who is a large pro-Fileman, and continue to do so regardless, then for a literal member of Parliament, and of course, that's Hannah Spencer, the Green Party's fifth MP. And it gets worse for a form, because in a poll released today by Ugov, no less, they are down a point while the Greens, well, they're up by four. As you can see, reform is on 23%. As I say, down one, the Greens are just behind on 21. They're up by four. And that's five points ahead of both Labour and the Tories.

1:07:39To repeat, this is Ugov, gold standard. The Greens are five percent. It's not the margin of error. According to our friends over at Stats for Lefty, is that vote is projected to lead to this outcome at Westminster. As you can see, reform short of a majority, which would be 326. They're on 285. Even if you include the Tory vote alongside reform, there is nothing approaching a majority. The Greens are on second with 125 seats, the Lib Dems on third with 89 S&P on fourth. So if anything actually, a rainbow coalition led by the Greens would have more seats and then reform in the Tories. Quite funny, although there is more data besides that, if anything, it's more important. This is polling by Maureen Common about who voters would vote to stop. Really, really key. This has been tweeted by Ed Hodgson from Maureen Common. Tracking our negative voting intention, who would Britain's vote against,

1:08:40who would their vote to stop, reform a top with 38% that's up nine. Labour's second at 34, down four. Tories and Greens on seven, Lib Dems on three. Now, this is really key. Reform a top on Labour of the government. And reform have gone up nine points. That's what we're talking about. And reform have gone up nine points. That's what happens when the electorate sees my good one, I guess, for a month. Sorry, I don't mean to be mean. That's a lot, right? They've gone up nine in a month. And before I go to you, Kieran, here's the polling average of the major parties. This is again courtesy of stats for lefties. Poll average, February, 2026. Reform, it's really important to say, reform is still leading. They've, I think, led over 200 polls now nationally. Reform on 28.4%. That's up 13 on the last general election. Tories on 18.7%, down 5.7%. On the last election. Labour also on 18.7%.

1:09:41That's down 16% on the last election. The Greens on 14%, Lib Dems on 12.4%. That's the lowest ever score for Labour in a polling average. I mean, I presume the Tories are getting there as well, right? But that's pretty extraordinary. Do you have the Greens, Labour and the Tories? In the average of polls now, kind of converging. I have a theory, Kieran. And I know this is going to sound mean. Look, I know our audience don't like reform, but I also don't like to stick the boot in. I really don't. When you've lost, you know, I actually well done to anybody who stands public office. It's not easy. It's really, really hard work. More people should do it. We should incentivize an encouragement to do it. You know, you put your hand in the rain, you shouldn't get a kicking. I think all of that. However, I think what Matt Goodwin has really shown over the last month is that infinite complaining, whining and winging is not a good look. And it's something I've been thinking about for a while.

1:10:42When I see reform on the TV or, you know, I hear them on the radio, I read about the home. All I hear about is moaning, negativity, pessimism, doom-rism, the black pill. Now, I get you've got to do some of the politics agreements. I get that. And they're really good at it. And you know what? There are things in this country that are really broken and you should be agree with about. But it does feel that people can't take that care. And for five years, constant moaning. It reminds me of that kind of ex-girlfriend. Right? I say this is a straight man. I'm sure there's many women think the same addict's boyfriend. And they were really good looking. They were really good looking. But they just winched. They just complained. But they just moaned. And I've had female friends say the same about some men in their lives. And no matter how good-looking they are, after a certain point, you just say, like, I can't. I can't handle this anymore. And that's kind of the vibe with reform. They just winch. They just complain. And it puts you in a depressive state. And people want to be optimistic. People want to be optimistic. They want good vibes. And that was the gift of Farage for a very long time.

1:11:42Is that he channeled the politics of grievance. But he also looked like he was enjoying himself. He was a bit of a lad, a bit of a charmer. It doesn't feel like people like Matt Goodwin have remotely learned that lesson after watching Farage for 20 years. OK. You can be a good cop on this. I'll be a bad cop because I'm loving every second of this. And I think I want to stick the boot as far as I possibly can. First of all, I've seen people two days into a ketamine binge who look better for Matt Goodwin in that footage. Why anybody would put themselves in front of a camera in that state is completely latterly beyond me? I think that this loss is exerting an outsized or disproportionately sized impact on Reformed's brand very largely because of where they were in their kind of development cycle. So up until recently, Reformed has been the new kid on the block.

1:12:43It's sprung from nowhere. And it's been going from strength to strength to the extent that people started to report on Reformed as though it was a kind of invincible project. But it was this juggernaut that was just going to steamroll at all or left and right. I mean, not so much left. But you know, some elements of those that folded for Keir's stammer at the last election and the right and completely gobble up everything and win a landslide of the next election. And I think this loss coming at this moment in time is much more devastating to them, but it might have been another time, even if it were the same circumstances, 4,500 margin and Matt Goodwin and all the rest of it. So to have their kind of invincibility bubble punctured at this moment in time when they seem to just be on the way up with defections and all the rest of it, good polling is, I think, the reason that this seems so catastrophic for them. And this reaction just makes things worse.

1:13:46I mean, it just makes things so much worse. And this touched on the other important part of all of this Aaron, as you rightly say, there is a mismatch if they continue to have this path because as much as I utterly despise Nigel Farage, one thing that is undeniable is that he challenged this kind of Reagani optimism. You know, he kind of became a vehicle for, like you say, grievance politics. In my view, very dark demagoguery and dog whistle politics. But in a kind of optimistic, Reagani positive charming, funny, light hearted... A sunny guy, right? He comes in the room, you think? Things are looking up. Exactly, a kind of sunny capsule. It was all captured within that. And that was the brand. That was the brand. So at the moment, clearly reform has fallen off. And the way they've responded to this loss is like a club,

1:14:47a football club losing and then just like falling behind, you know, completely bottoming out. They've done an arsenal. They've done an arsenal. They've bottled it. Yeah, yeah. And so I think, I think that, you know, and for those of us, as I say, I will stick the boot in a bit, to see a grown man who has had a lot of things his own way in life, who's part of a political culture and a culture wars that constantly tells us that people are too weak these days, that people are too sentimental, that people are too sensitive, that masculinity has become too effeminate, and all of that kind of stuff, to see such a person, you know, crumble crippled by what is essentially a loss in a very privileged setting with absolutely a few consequences, really, in any significant sense. What it really does is it reaffirms for us something we probably all knew in our hearts,

1:15:47which is that if macro between Farage, those there ilk, were subject to a fraction of the hardship, that the vulnerable people in society, that they make their kind of culture wars pinnipers, you know, trans people, immigrants, refugees, if they were subject to one tenth of the hardship that those people have suffered, they would utterly crumble into a little more beg for their mummies. He's done a William Galas, hasn't he? And he's still going, he's still going. I mean, that's the thing, two responses there. First of all, if that was me, I know my dad, if I was doing, if I was literally, days later on TV or radio, my dad's son, you know, he's sort of straight, quite macho, Middle Eastern man. He's son, he's kind of embarrassing the family, you know, pull it in, you know, get yourself, take a week off, go on holiday. That's what he would say, right? But why aren't reform doing that? Why isn't Farage just saying, you know what, Matt? This isn't looking good for us. We just showed you a bunch of polling data. The more they've seen of this guy in reform over the last month,

1:16:48the more popular it got. People are now saying they're more likely to vote against reform. Stop reform, that's got 9% in one month. So yes, they had a good result in this election. I think that's really important. That is really important. They beat Labour, they came second in the Northwest. If you had this kind of performance, this kind of swing nationally, I think there was one bit of data that said that win about 450 seats. I mean, that's an important bit of data. It's very real. There's another bit of data, which is they've seen loads of reform politicians who's not Nigel Farage over the last month, and people don't like it. People do not like it. Before we conclude tonight's show, we have to talk about the Greens. We have to talk about the Greens, right? Because I think there was second in Find Out Now. They were third with another pollster. I can't remember who. Labour won 18% with a pinion. That's the lowest ever polling with a pinion. So clearly Labour is struggling. Tories, Mayor, who knows. Reform kind of on a little bit of a downward trajectory. But the Greens doing terrifically well. They'll do well in May with the local elections.

1:17:49I suppose one line of argument is the more exposure the Greens have from national political media, if people genuinely think they could win 40-50 seats at Westminster, that's a long way away, by the way. But if that's plausible, they're going to get a lot of scrutiny. And deservedly so, of course, from the media, much of the right with media, and that won't be deserved, and much of it won't be fair. Some people would say, well, you know, reform a crumbling now a little bit on Matt Goodwin's crumbling because of that kind of scrutiny. But actually, the Greens would do a hell of a lot worse. What would you say to that? I would say that there's probably some truth in that. That they will come under more scrutiny, and that they're right now probably in some kind of Goldilocks zone, where it's not too hard, it's not too cold. They've got, they can get on to national platforms, not as much as they should do. You're right, Aaron, to point out that had a Spencer, wasn't invited to the LBC as far as I'm aware, maybe she was. But it's Matt Goodwin that's being interviewed and not the winner. But they're also not so hot that they're not having, you know, every single front page of every newspaper running bad stories about them raking up mud.

1:18:50And there are some that are starting to trickle out, by the way. But generally, I think they're probably in that Goldilocks zone, yeah. But, you know, I think the people that I've spoken to work around the Green Party or activists or support the Green Party, they take the same line on it, which is that, you know, the British left has kind of done the road test on this. It's gone through this process between 2017 and 2019. You'll remember this better than anybody, Aaron. Before 2017, you know, the legacy media and the political class didn't really take Jeremy Corbyn that seriously. I mean, the Labour Party did, because they wanted to vow. They wanted to dislodge him. But the rest of the kind of political establishment, the media, didn't. And so he was, partly why he did so well in 2017, was that they hadn't turned the dialogue to 11 and, you know, bombarded the public with all manner of negative story. You know, day after day after day after day until 2019 happens. It's not the only reason that Jeremy Corbyn lost the election, you know,

1:19:53badly in 2019, but it is one significant reason. And so I think a lot of people who support the Green Party, who are maybe going to be part of the, you mentioned Arsenal, but in the different context, the Arsenal, the electoral Arsenal that goes in to the 2029, or wherever it is election, helps the Green Party, puts its best foot forward and puts its best showing for that election. They feel that they have already been battle tested in this respect. And I think it's the onslaught. If the Greens continue to grow and do well and look like a credible electoral force, whether that's 36, 40 seats, four-wing coalition with other progressive parties, or whether that's 26 plus, there is inevitably going to be massive scrutiny on the party, because there are a lot of vested interests and established interests reflected in the media, the structure of ownership in the media that do not want that to happen at any cost. And it's not in their material interest for it to happen, by the way.

1:20:54So of course, they're going for everything at stymying that outcome, a good green election, whatever that looks like. So yeah, I think absolutely, we should back down the hatches. I think also, if you're the Labour Party, on the one hand, yeah, you want to attack the Greens because they're coming onto a turf. They're just one in a bar election, which was previously we'll see. But you're probably thinking, hey, you know what? There's probably a sweet spot where the Greens do pretty well, and they take all these strays, and actually we're looked at as the modra option by the times the sun, the murder of press and so on. I have to say two things. Firstly, Hannah Spencer, an extraordinary candidate, very, very strong candidate. Except in speech, we discussed that on Friday night. You know, hit so many notes, you could see a good one behind her thinking, Christ, this is what my, this is what my vote has to talk about, litter, fly tipping, and social behaviour, high streets. Small businesses just, you know, not getting a chance to succeed. And I think that's partly why reform is so angry. It's because they can't just pigeonhole the Greens now as he's like,

1:21:56ultra-left social liberals who will tell you off for taking a package all day once a year. There's actually a substantive political offer now to the working class, the middle class, talking about a really wide range of issues. And I think the problem for reform, and also the problem for the media that wants to, that part of the media wants to attack the Greens, is going to be that nobody thinks the Greens are going to form a government. Even though there's that polling show in them in second, you know, people think, oh well, I'd quite like the Greens to have 30 MPs. You know, that, that would take politics in the direction I quite like. They might not, they, they actually might want Zach Plansky not to be the PM. They might prefer Starman to be the PM. But they think, you know, I, I care about climate issues. I won't lose a bit more left wing. I want to be a bit closer to Europe. You know, I like rewilding beaver. That's how 30 MPs grey. Whereas reforms, pitches, we are going to be the government. And that is something really concrete that people will want to stop. People are not going to turn out in their drives. No, you know, no pass around. No 30 MPs to the Greens. It's crazy. And so what you see in the response to Hannah Spencer is

1:22:57people like that idiot former editor at the Jewish Chronicle. What's his name? Jake, what's his name? Jake, what's his name? Jake, what's his name? Comparing her win, the fifth Green MP in Parliament, comparing it to the Islamic Revolution of 1979. That, that, that hyperbole works, what it's Jeremy Corbyn in 2017, because the guy might be the PM. Raise the stakes, make it existential. Because people will be like, well, actually, Christ, this guy will be in charge of my life in many ways. She's the fifth MP for a minor political party who have as many members of Parliament as the DUP, a political party that most people in England, I would say, 90% plus people in England have never heard of. Really briefly jump off the back of that. Though we've run over so much. First of all, just want to clarify, Jake, what the side was not by me. I said that sarcastically. The, the victory, how the Spencer's victory is a victory for two things, essentially, Aaron. Local, I think, local democracy. And the local members of a party being empowered

1:23:57to pick someone who's of the community. And I think that that was enormously effective in creating a situation in which the Greens could communicate effectively, local concerns to local people. That can't be underestimated. And obviously the big kind of villainous counterpoint to that in the past few years is the Labour Party, who parachuted infinity candidates in, at the last election. So it's a victory for local democracy. And it's also a victory for no frills, no nonsense, bread and butter issues in an inclusive way, in an inclusive setting. You know, reform would argue, well, we talk about, you know, NHS waiting times. I mean, I don't believe for a second that they actually care about any of that, really. But they would say, well, we talk about that, bread and butter stuff as well, but they do it in an exclusivist way, in an exclusionary way. So it's a victory for those two things. And I think that is what rankles were formed so much.

1:24:57They were on the basis of local democracy and they were on the basis of inclusive bread and butter issues being communicated effectively. And you know what? I think this, this sums up reforms problems. And somebody should put this to Matt Goodwin. I mean, I will if I see him again on TV. Will he stand again in Gordon and Denton? Because that's why the Greens win. That's why Hannah Spencer won. They actually commit themselves to an area and people view them as authentic local champions, like you said. It's not the case often with reform. A bad choice of candidate in that part of the world. I mean, Matt Goodwin probably would have done very well in the home counties, very, very strange. Let's finish up there. More than 4,000 have even been watching all night. We touched on 5,000 to start the show. Thank you, Kiran. For joining me. Thank you for helping me make sense of what's been going on and thanks to the 4,000 people who have stayed with us. It was too much. There's too much news tonight, especially with Trump. We did try our best to make sense of it. If you look at what we do here at an environment, as I've said multiple times, support our work, go to environment.com forward slash support.

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