The Big 3: SWBI, AAPL, DELL

0:00Welcome back to trading 360. I'm Marley Caden. It's time for the big three. We've got three stocks for you. Three charts will be taking you through Alex coffee will be taking care of the technicals for us today. And here to take us through the picks for the big three Tim bow and the chief technical trainer at stocks to trade.com. Tim, great to have you with us. Our last guest said to me that he used to not be a fan of Mondays. But he's really starting to dislike Fridays because of all the de-risking that we've been seeing. So I'd love to kick things off with a big picture thought from you on the markets and how you're feeling about Fridays right now. Yeah, I agree with that point. It's like we have these bracketed weeks. Now most importantly welcome back Marley. I missed you last couple weeks. But I'm going to kind of, you know, the reason I mentioned that particularly is I'm going to kind of repeat what I said to you three weeks ago. Yeah, it's pretty ugly out there, you know, in overall markets. A lot of fear fear is kind of taken over hard for a lot of people to get excited about the stock market.

1:04But the repeat thing I'm going to say is I still say you go back six months ago, you know, go back to October when we were pushing the all time highs and the AI bubble talk was coming. I think if you would have laid out the disaster of 2026 when it comes to, you know, markets and news flow and war and all of these things. I think me and every one that either trades or watches the markets would have said we'd be much lower than where we are. Now I know that is probably trying to make a little lemonade from the lemons, but I think that's true. And I expect a little bit of clarity over the weekend. You know, as mentioned, like people Lee on Friday and come back at Monday because we're in this cycle where all, you know, it's like you wait for the opening bell on Friday and like what's going to what's going to get announced now. And it's that cycle. I'm hoping we get some good news over the weekend, something to get excited about and bring buyers back now. If I'm wrong, you know, by gold by guns.

2:12Now, well, that's my call, I guess. Well, you just gave me the perfect lead and into your first pick with by gold by guns because Smith and Wesson is your first pick for big three today. They're, you know, right near all time highs right now. As we talk about, you know, the debt disaster, the 2026 has been. It hasn't been that way for Smith and Wesson. You're to date. They are up almost 50% Tim. So take us through this pick and why you included them in the big three today. But, you know, I've been trading 20 plus years now and, you know, it's one of those plays that I mean, I like I like obvious and when people really get worried about, you know, sleeper sales. I mean, and again, I'm not trying to spread fear. I'm a positive guy. But when people start hearing about this stuff and they see these situations ratchet up, you see this. It's not surprising me that SWB in 2026. I mean, basically broke out in early 2026 and has been going up since then, because listen, you know, all joking aside, their business is strong. People get scared. They start trying to protect themselves.

3:18And as of right now, I mean, it's just a very strong chart. And I don't think the answer as much as I said, I'm positive for the news flow over the weekend. It's not like all of this is just going to be solved by Monday. So I like the chart. I like the theme. Here is what Alex has to say about the technical. All right, Alex. So let's take a look at the technicals for Smith and Wesson. I mentioned the year to date move higher. We've seen, but as you look at it against its competitors, you know, in the year time frame and even this year, how is it stacking up? Yeah, one thing to note is there's really not a ton in this space that are publicly traded, but it is absolutely the leader performance wise year to date. It's the green line here, nearly 50% as you said. Ruger, probably its closest peer in the space up about 22 and a half percent RGR. Outdoor holding is actually operates gunbroker.com, which is the world's largest e-commerce marketplace for firearms. That's the red line. It's up about 16%. And then interestingly, I didn't do this. This is just where it's classified. It's underneath the consumer discretionary and then the sub industry group leisure products.

4:22So it falls. That's the purple line there up about 10% but there's tons of other things in there within sporting goods. So interesting enough that it ultimately finds itself classified there. But certainly outperforming that industry group by a wide margin was 5x and leisure goods. OK. But as we look at Smith and Wesson on its own. I mentioned, you know, it's had a good year to date. It's certainly in terms of what's happening in the world a favorable setup for a company like this. So what are you seeing when you look at the technicals? Yeah, big picture technicals looking over the last year. It's a really nice looking chart, particularly from the year to date line, but really going back to its last earnings announcement kind of mid to late November. We've talked about this tons on on market on clothes. I don't I don't like to make this complicated make it as simple as possible. One week moving average represented by that purple line, a one month moving average represented by that teal line and then price. The relationship between those three gives me a good idea of what that short term trend is right now it's bullish price above the week and then the week above the month.

5:22That's a bullish configuration pretty much near highs. You can see a little bit of a pullback to that one moving average out be a support level to keep on your radar. So right now that's around let's call it 1475 or so it is dynamic though. It's basically right where we're trading. So pretty critical test here in today. You can see all the green at the top there basically just saying, hey, this talk's done well over various time frames. And then down here at the bottom of momentum study is this trend getting stronger? Well, it's pulled back a little bit from its highs, but we're well into that over bought territory above 70 still very bullish from a momentum standpoint as well. Yeah, and right now Smith and Western trading down with the overall market. We're down about three quarters of a percent at 1474 for Smith and Western, but Tim let's move to your next pick here. You've got one that's been in the headlines quite a bit this week. We're talking about Apple. We got their announcement for their American manufacturing plan update yesterday. Either going to update Siri finally. We're hearing you take us through Apple and your outlook here. So this is kind of one of those interesting narrative strict shifts because you go back to October when basically Apple started that trend up to the highs.

6:33And you know, six months ago, we Apple was kind of getting made fun of or or or not for not, you know, spending, you know, all that capex on AI, like, you know, all these other, you know, in the thing, the, you know, the mag seven, all these, you spend spend spend on AI. People were like, Oh, why is it why is Apple not spending anything? Then you fast forward a few months. And now everyone's like, Oh, these, all these AI companies, they're all spending too much. They're over leverage. And Apple is kind of looking like the smart one. And, you know, again, I know I've talked about this a lot. You'll go back to January. But there's this explosion of of local models, you know, people like, like me, I've been running open cloth since January. And I mean, Apple is just like, you can't get them. Well, you can get them, but they're hard to get the minis, the mac studios, they release those new laptops. So there's this kind of consumer market for AI, not just the big data centers. And also, I just love that news of Apple basically opening up Siri. I'm a big iPhone lover. I've had an iPhone from the beginning.

7:45But we all know Siri cracked up doll. It's supposed to be. So by now, allow open that up, plug in your preferred model. Whether that be chatchy PT or whether that be caught or something else. It really, I think makes, you know, take Siri to the next level. So you combine all of those things. They're sitting on a boatload of cash. They seem to be the smart one in that regard. Open it up, Siri, people buying out every, every single Mac mini and studio, they can get a hold of. I mean, it looks like this could be the thing to finally break it out of this range that it's been in the last few months. All right, Alex. We're going to look at the technicals for this one in a second. But our first chart is always how it's stacking up against the competition. Apple is a little tricky when it comes to finding a competitor for it. So who did you pick? Yeah, so no real true competitor, but more peers and companies that are similar and they're the biggest five companies on the planet. So you got Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia and Apple. And so it's a big three, but these are the big five. Microsoft's a clear disappointment here. It's the red line. You got a kind of a hodgepodge here of the three in the middle. Apple's the outperformer. It's down 6%.

8:53Basically a little bit better than the overall markets performance, but are largely in line in the best performing of its peers. So the Tim's point, perhaps some of those decisions that had led to some of that sluggishness. A few months ago are starting to pay off now is it doesn't have quite the beta that some of its bigger tech peers have. So then as we go to look at the technical setup, Alex Tim was saying he thinks it's right for a rally. It's got the right headlines. It's got the right setup. Are you seeing that in the technicals? Yeah, you're starting to see signs of it. So first off, I'll preface this. Look, this talks done well over the last year. It's up almost 13%. It's starting to do okay week to date when the rest of the stocks this week haven't done particularly well. So it is notable, but you'll see momentum below 50, but improving. So I try to classify things in the short term is coming from a bearish configuration to an improving one, but not necessarily out of the woods just yet. So same indicators five day EMA 21 day EMA, but what you'll see is although the five days below that that one month 21 day prices right in between them.

9:54And so it kind of clouds that picture just a little bit as we're watching maybe an attempt to flip that trend to something a little bit more neutral and then ultimately bullish. So first level to keep on our radar would be right around that 245 level, which coincides with our recent lows, but also a pretty significant level back in the in the latter half of last year. Of course, this level that we're sitting at with this five day EMA is going to be relevant as well. And then to the upside, we'd like to see a reclaim of that 21 day around 255. You saw a test today. You saw a test yesterday, but it's been unable to close above that. So that would be a target short term and ultimately a resistance point that it needs to get through for this picture to improve. And Apple right now down just ever so slightly too tens of a percent at 252 37. So performing better than the broader markets today. Tim, your last pick in the big three here is Dell. Dell has had some impressive momentum so far this year. Up more than 37% as I look, they've got strong AI server demand. They had good earnings here. So take us through Dell and your expectations for Dell.

11:01I'll keep it quick. I'm a little extra chatty today. Sorry about that. It's been a great week. You know, it's funny. As much as people are scared, scared, scared looking at the Nasak and the S&P and all of these things. Short term trading volatility through the wolf. I've had a great week. So sorry to be so chatty on the other two ideas. So with Dell, I'll keep it quick. I just kind of consider it as the go to four data center expansion. I mean, there's a lot of players out there, obviously. But, you know, Dell is just one of those go to's. If you need a bunch of data center servers, if you need a bunch of internet interconnection equipment, switches, routers, et cetera, you go to Dell. So that coupled with that big breakout this week, you know, as much as I talk about, you know, the pullback in potential pullback and AI spending, it's still going to be might not be as crazy as it was. You know, the end of last year, but this train ain't stopping anytime soon. And I just think that Dell will benefit from it.

12:04Tim, never apologize for being chatty on this show. We have you here to share your insights. That's why you're here. And frankly, I will always appreciate a guest who speaks more than just a one sentence answer. So thank you. You make my job easier. But Alex, as we look here, you know, at the other hardware names. How is Dell comparing against the competitor? I can see how it is. It's green and it's considerably higher. Yeah, it really is. I'll keep it quick as well. SMCI is the one that's in the news. It's been disappointing. Industry group is down a little bit as our HP both arms of HP. So a really significant out performer in the space. Pretty straightforward. As we take a look at its technical picture, a lot more like Smith and Weston, a really nice performing name. I would say, though, a little bit of signs of concern is just that you're testing that level, although it did hold around that five day EMA, so bullish configuration still intact for now. And then if you go down to the bottom panel there, RSI and the momentum has broken down below overbought, but all in all, still upwards trending. And you can't stay overbought forever. So all in all, this is a really nice looking chart in an area that's really, really important to the overall economic picture at the moment.

13:12Right now, Dell, trading lower with the broader market. We're down about a percent and a third right now 173 55 Tim. Want to thank you for being with us. We hope you have a great weekend. That's Tim Bowen, Chief Technical Trainer at StocksToTrade.com. And thanks to Alex for being here to take us through the technicals.