The 6 Best Stocks On A Dip

America leads the world in medicine development. It matters. We get new medicines first, nearly

three years faster. Five million Americans go to work because we make medicines here at home,

and not relying on other countries keeps us safe. But China is racing to overtake us.

Will we let them? Or will we choose to stay ahead? When America leads,

America cures. Let's tell Washington to keep us in the lead.

Learn how at americancures.com. Paid for by pharma.

Spring styles are at Nordstrom Rack stores now, and they're up to 60 percent off.

Stock up and save on rag and bone made well. Vince, all scenes and more of your favorites.

How did I let no rack as a deed? Why do we rack for the hottest feel?

There's so many good brands. Join the Nordy Club to unlock exclusive discounts,

shop new arrivals first and more. Plus, buy online and pick up at your favorite rack store for free.

Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack.

Welcome back everyone. Today on the Joseph Carlson show, amidst all the news,

all the chaos, the war with the rent, the spiking oil prices, the labor market,

everything that we can look at on a day-to-day basis can be very distracting.

It's all very important, but it can distract us as investors from some of the biggest

opportunities happening today. Right now, there are six stocks, six of the highest quality

compounding machines in the market that the market has sold off. These are stocks that are in

massive drawdowns. These are also companies that some of the best investors in the world own,

like Bill Ackman, Devkantissaria, Warren Buffett, Chris Hone. They own these very stocks and

these very stocks are selling down big. We're going to be going through them. I'm going to be looking

at each of them and giving you my analysis of why they're selling off, as well as why I think

they're buys today. We'll be looking at six of the best companies in the market owned by these

super investors that have sold off in our opportunities today. Of course, we have a lot of other

news to get to as well. For example, Tom Lee recently did a viral interview where he says that

the market's going to go up this month. He believes that the market will go up, but then he's also

predicting that we'll have a bear market later on this year. Why does he think we're going to have

a bear market? We'll be looking at it. Finally, in the fall of the week, we have Andrew Yang going on

to CNBC and talking about the end of the job of market, the major disruptions that will happen.

How everything is basically going to be bad in the future. People aren't going to be able to find

jobs. It's going to wipe out entire industries. It's a lot of the rhetoric that we've heard before.

Andrew Yang makes this case, saying how bad things are going to be in the future. He also offers

a solution, which of course is government intervention. I'll be going over this point by point and

ultimately, why this interview is the fail of the week. We have a lot to get to in this episode. Let's

go ahead and jump in. We'll start off by looking at six genuinely great companies that are in

major drawdowns. These are compounding machines. These are companies that some of the best investors

in the world have given their stamp of approval. Some of them have done incredibly in-depth research

on these companies. It's very common in times of chaos and lots of world events, lots of macro

economic events, lots of long tail risk. All of those things happening right now can cause great

companies to sell down more than they deserve. These are the type of companies that, in many cases,

looking forward in a year or two, many investors may look back and say, man, I wish I bought it when

it was on that dip. I wish I got this company when no one else wanted it. I can't believe I didn't

buy more of it when it was only at this price. Well, here they are. Let's go ahead and just go

through them. The first one is FICO. FICO is now down below $1,200 per share. It is currently

in a massive sell-off. When we look at FICO just recently, in fact year to date, it's down 26%.

So over a quarter of the market cap chopped off year to date, but FICO has also been as high as

$2,200 per share in less than a year. FICO is down nearly 50% from its highs just a year ago.

Now, when we look at FICO, it's important to know who has actually owned this company, the stamp

of approvals that it's had. Now, a number of super investors own FICO, one of them being Chuck

Ockrey, who only holds 18 positions. So it's a fairly concentrated portfolio to begin with,

but if you look at the actual position weightings, maybe five or six of them aren't really meaningful

at all. They're less than half a percent. So when you start getting to the meaningful ones,

they really only have around 13 holdings. FICO is one of them at above a five percent

weighting, meaning the team has done work on FICO. They believe that this stock is an incredibly

high quality company to be in the Chuck Ockrey portfolio. They hold this one, but we also have

super investors holding it in even bigger size. One of them is Lindsayll Train that manages four

billion dollars in assets under management. When we look at their portfolio, one of their top five

top six positions is FICO, a 9.29 percent weighting. So this is again a massive position,

and a massive fund by a super investor, but they're not the biggest. We have yet the biggest

position in FICO held by none other than Dev Cantasaria from Valley Forge Capital, one of my favorite

super investors. He's done in-depth analysis on this company. You can listen to it in a business

breakdown. He talks at length 30, 40 minutes breaking down every single detail of FICO, why the

moat is so incredibly difficult to break, how the company has so much pricing power, how it's

deeply embedded in our system and our economy. It's a really extensive look at FICO, and he

represents this with 30 percent of his portfolio, 30 percent of currently $4.4 billion in this one

holding, and this holding is down by 50 percent from its highs. You may be wondering if this stock

is really so good, then why is it going down so much? What's going on here? There is a number of

reasons. One of them is simply that FICO did trade at a high valuation. Part of this is just multiple

compressions. It went up to a valuation that was a little bit higher than even people like Dev Cantasaria

expected. It just climbed a little too high. That's part of it. The other part is that they gave

a little bit softer guidance than what analysts expected. In 2025, they had a really great year,

just an amazing year for FICO. They tempered expectations a little bit in 2026, but they're not

going to squeeze on pricing quite as much as people anticipate. Another problem for FICO is that

the housing directors trying to make it so that they do have a level of competition, specifically

with vantage score. That's the one that's owned by all the credit bureaus like Equifax and Trans

Union, and they've recently announced that they're basically making that score cost zero. They

just want to try to get in the market against FICO. So investors are a little concerned is

vantage score going to gain market share? Is it really going to start competing against the

FICO score? It hasn't really so far, but there is some analysis showing that it may. So that's

putting into question a little bit of the moat of FICO. Previously, investors thought it was

unbreakable, and now they view the credit bureaus in vantage score as a potential weakness in the

moat. And then finally, there is the overall sell-off. FICO is just one of these companies that's in

the software basket. You can see many of them in the financial category and the SaaS category that

have been selling down. And that is put pressure down on the overall category of which FICO sits in.

So there is a number of reasons that this stock is going down. But at the end of the day,

FICO's moat is very strong. It's likely that vantage score will take some market share, but not

a meaningful amount. FICO is deeply embedded in the mortgage market and loan origination. It is

the best scoring system. And beyond that, it's a common language. It's like saying that even if someone

invented a better language than English, even if it was more accurate or it could convey thought

better than English, it likely still wouldn't win because English is what people are already using.

It's the language that people use throughout a lot of the world. So when you look at FICO,

you can look at it in a similar way. Even if there is an AI score that's better or one that's

cheaper, it still has an uphill battle competing with FICO because FICO is the dominant scoring

system. It's the language by which every single bank, every single lender, every single business

talks to each other when they try to talk about the credit worthiness of a customer or an individual.

So even if there is something that's technically superior, it's likely not going to compete with FICO.

The brand and the language are part of the moat. Now, when we look at what's happened with FICO,

with this massive drawdown, we can take a look at the historical valuation to get some context here.

Here is what it looks like. The valuation was pretty low in 2016. Many people didn't realize how good

of a company FICO was. It raced up in valuation in 2020 and 2021. It got into a higher range.

Then it came crashing down with the rest of the market in 2022. It raced up in 2022 like crazy.

All the way into 2024, that's where it got a little bit ahead of itself and now we're back down

to reality. It's more an unnormalized category. It's not the cheapest it's ever been historically.

It's not cheaper than the lows of 2022, but now investors can buy into FICO and they're not buying

a company with an insanely high historical valuation. You're not buying it at all time highs.

The valuation has been chopped down significantly. The concerns about the moat invasion and the

slower growth are already heavily priced into the stock. If FICO resumes growth, like it has

before, if they prove that their moat will hold up against Vanished Gore and with the AI

alternatives, if they prove that they can continue to grow earnings at a fast pace as a highly

efficient business, this stock could rock it back up another 20-30% in less than a year.

It's one of those companies that can move very quickly. Right now, I believe it's an opportunity.

Now, next up, we have another stock that Super Investors own, one that's in a big sell-off,

a huge drawdown, which is Uber. Uber is up today, but overall, the stock price is back to $74.40

per share. When we look at where this one has recently traded over the past year, it got up to

$100 per share. That's where it peaked and now it's back down to $75 per share. It's down roughly

25% from its all-time highs. Uber is in a 25% drawdown, which is notable for a company like this,

and it may give us an opportunity. When we look at who owns Uber, we can see another slew

of big-time investors. These are Super Investors. One of them is Egerton Capital. They manage over

$9 billion. They have a diversified portfolio, so this isn't a massive way to position, but it was

a new buy. They just bought into Uber in their last quarter. They have it as a 2.38% position.

We also have another Super Investor, Thomas Russo. His Uber position is 4.5%. He's added recently

to the position while reducing others. He also sees more value in Uber relative to other companies

in the market. Then, of course, we have the biggest one here. Bill Ackman, $15 plus billion in the

portfolio. He's done extensive write-ups on Uber, and he has it currently as a 16% position.

Now, even when Uber was trading at a relatively higher price than it is today,

Bill Ackman called the stock deeply undervalued. His investor presentation just recently,

he also went over the bulk case of Uber, said that it's a misunderstood stock. It's going to stand

up against artificial intelligence. It'll stand up against robot taxis. It's not going to be

displaced. In fact, it has a lot of growth ahead of it. It has a ton of operating leverage,

and it has a very good CEO. He gave out a very good bulk case for the company, and he's matching

that with a huge position in his portfolio. When I look at Uber and the valuation of the company,

it's trading at a 22 Ford PE ratio, which is nothing extreme. In fact, this seems like a conservative

PE ratio for a company that has this much potential growth. We also have a free cash flow yield

that's in the range of 5 to 6%. This also seems very cheap for a company that's growing this quickly.

If we look at the cash flows of Uber over time, you can see that this is a compounding machine.

It's one that reached its operating leverage and its scale. When we look at the valuation

historically, Uber is also a company that the valuation has gone down with the stock price going

down. You can see these same metrics. All of them are much lower over the past five years.

So this is another company that has the validation and stamp of approval by three super investors.

One of them making it roughly one-fifth of his portfolio. It's 25% off of its highs,

and the future does look bright for Uber. If you believe that it won't be disrupted by Waymo

or Robotaxi, this is certainly going to be a good stock to buy. Now third on the list,

we have another seemingly high-quality compounding machine stock owned by many institutional investors

and super investors that's also in a massive drawdown. The company's into it. If we look at the

recent trading of into it, it's down 30% just year to date. So it's been clobbered just this year.

Into it's also a company that I own. I have it in the financial category. It's one that continues

to bounce between the green and the red. Currently, it's down 4.63%. But this is one that I continue

to hold and even buy more of. When we look at into it, there are a number of big-time investors

that own this company. One of which again is Valley Forge Capital Management. Valley Forge is

heavily invested in the financial category, and many of these stocks are being sold off with the

market. Into it is a 3.3% position of their fund. But Valley Forge Capital is actually not the

biggest holder of into it among super investors. Linzo trained that manages a $4 billion

portfolio has into it as their third largest position. It's a 10.25% waiting. So massive investment

into into it. Now, when we look at into it, there's a few different reasons why this stock is

getting hit so hard. One of them simply is these SaaS pocketlips. We know that companies like Adobe,

Intuit, ServiceNow, Workday, Monday.com, you know, you can go on and on. These stocks are all

getting crushed. But into it has its own particular set of concerns amongst the SaaS pocketlips.

One of them is that there's a belief of AI disruption that will be very easy for companies like

Chatchy BT or Clawed to do your taxes for you. I don't really see that as a viable path forward.

Most people don't want to tinker with AI and do a lot of prompts to do their taxes.

Most people just want to click a few buttons in TurboTax. Know that TurboTax is going to do it

correctly and they take on the liability that they have your local and all your regulations.

And you can just feed TurboTax your documents, click a couple buttons and then you're done with

your taxes. In fact, most people would pay $100 out of their tax return to have that done

conveniently and easily. And I believe the concerns that a Chatchy BT is going to do your taxes

for you are a bit overstated. There are going to be people that are do-it-yourself people

that are willing to tinker with these type of things, that are willing to feed all the documents,

follow all the instructions through a Chatchy BT, and then hope that it's done correctly.

But in most cases, the vast majority of people will just want AI to do it within a tax system

like TurboTax and know it's done correctly. So I see Intuit TurboTax, their main product,

as being somewhat resilient from AI disruption. Even though Intuit posted great earnings,

they're growing quickly, all their fundamentals look great, the market's still treating them

as guilty of being disrupted. And only time will be able to prove that wrong. Intuit will have

to post quarter after quarter of strong earnings growth, re-acceleration. They'll have to prove

the story that AI is more of a benefit than a detriment for the market to get back on board.

Another problem with Intuit stock is simply multiple compression. Like many of these companies,

Intuit was flying high. It was a stock that was super highly valued. One that in 2021,

the PE race shows and valuation metrics got into incredible territories. It came down a little

bit after 2021. But Intuit has always traded at one of these higher valuations. It's always

priced as this dominant monopolistic company that had huge market share. And even though that was

true, that being priced into the stock made it vulnerable. So now that the narrative has changed,

and investors aren't giving it that type of pricing, the stock price and multiples have collapsed.

Intuit is no longer priced as an indestructible compounding machine with a very monopolistic

market. It's priced as a company that needs to prove itself. It is trading at an 18 forward

PE ratio. 16 forward PE based on 2027's estimated earnings. It's priced with a 5.5% free

cash yield. Even when you factor in their stock based comp, it's trading at a 4%. These are

pretty hefty free cash yield, and this is a very low price to earnings ratio for a compounding

machine. In a couple of years, we could be looking back and see this as a big opportunity to have

bought into it for $400 per share. It could be trading at $700, $800 per share in just a couple

years if the magic comes back to this stock. If they continue to grow turbo tax, if they implement

artificial intelligence in it, if their SaaS applications continue to grow and have high retention,

we could see this be a stock that jumps up significantly in a short amount of time.

Now company number four that of course is a comp calendar. It's obvious to anyone,

but it may not be obvious the type of sell off this company is actually in is Microsoft.

It's rare that Microsoft gets sold off at the market out of a bunch of fares. It is rare,

but it does happen and it's happening now. Microsoft is down 14% year to date. When we look at it

over the past year, Microsoft got as high as $540. So from $540 to $400. When we look at Microsoft,

investors are clearly concerned about something. They've bid the company down over a full $100.

When we look at who owns this company, there are many notable super investors that own Microsoft.

It's one of the most owned companies across super investors portfolios because Microsoft

historically is looked at as being bulletproof. For example, we have Chris Hone.

One of the investors that manages the most money manages $53, $54 billion depending on the day.

And when we look at his portfolio, it's only in a handful of companies like nine US companies.

We have here Microsoft being the third one 15% or roughly $17 billion invested in this single

company. Now, Chris Hone has such an incredibly high standard for a moat that he literally won't

have any holding in his portfolio that he thinks there's even a question about the moat.

He even sold out at Google just because the moat was becoming questionable to some degree.

A slight question about the moat, Chris Hone is out. Yet he's been adding to Microsoft.

Amongst this sell-off, he continues to believe that Microsoft has an unquestionably large moat.

We also have other investors that have even a bigger percentage of their portfolio in Microsoft.

Triple Front Partners has $906. Triple Front Partners has nearly a billion dollars invested.

They have Microsoft as their top position, about 18%. And there are many more super investors

that own this stock. And it'll be interesting to see next quarter how many super investors were

buying these companies because this reflects their trades as of Q4 when Microsoft was much higher.

Now, when we look at Microsoft, there's a couple reasons of why this company's selling off right now.

One of them is just evaluation reset. Like many of these companies last year, the valuations were high,

stocks were moving upwards. Microsoft at $5.50 was a bit on the high end. So some of it could just

be valuations coming down a little bit. But with Microsoft, there is more to be concerned about.

There's more than investors are worried about. One of them is the massive cap expend.

We've highlighted this before. Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, the four cap expenders have all

had questions regarding their spend. How much are they spending? What is the return going to be on

this? Why are they spending it? When is it going to end on and on and on? When investors know that

you're going to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on CapEx, and you don't quite know the

returns, that makes investors a little bit nervous. Microsoft is moving from a very high margin

software company to now a mixture, a company that's running massive amounts of power

requirement, spending massive amounts of money. It is moving from a capital efficient business

to a far less capital efficient business. We also have the relationship closely tied with OpenAI

and the fates of OpenAI. It seems like ChatchyBT used to be a good thing when you're partnered with

it. The stock would go up like 10% anytime someone partnered with them. Now it's kind of the opposite.

Investors want diversification. They're saying that they don't want all the eggs and one basket that's

ChatchyBT. They want to have a diversified consumer base using the cloud hosting. So investors

are looking at this and they're a little bit concerned about the relationship with OpenAI.

They have concerns about the valuation and the reset. They have concerns that AI is going to

compete with the software aspects of Microsoft as well. And when you stew all these concerns together,

you get a stock following 20 to 25%. So here we have Microsoft today. Lots of concerns being priced

into the company. The company is also now trading at a 23 Ford PE ratio. That's super low for Microsoft.

The trailing PE ratio is a 25. The free cash flow yield is at a 2.6, which is on the higher end

for Microsoft. Usually this company demands a 2% or below free cash flow yield. To illustrate this

over time, you can look at the valuation multiples. The price to free cash flow is way down from its

recent highs. The price to earnings is even further down from its recent highs and the price to

operating cash flows also way down. Every single metric is down and it's more in line with the

median of the past five years. So if you're buying Microsoft today, you're not paying a premium.

You're buying the company much closer to fair value on a historical basis. And I would argue that

you're also buying a fantastic Microsoft. It hasn't really been slowing down. The revenues growing

at 17%. We have the RPO backlog. A lot of this again is open AI, but it's even good without open AI.

Their backlog continues to grow. Their segment growth. Every single segment of the business

continues to grow. When I look at Microsoft, I see it is a very healthy company. It has some real

concerns, but I believe that those are already reflected in the price. Right now, Microsoft is an

opportunity to buy at this company much closer to fair value or at undervalued ranges. It's one to

be adding to. Now, number five, we have another compounding machine, a company that's in many

super investors portfolios that's in a drawdown. This one's Brookfield Corporation ticker symbol BN.

It's ran by Bruce Flat, which is like the Canadian Warren Buffett. Some people say he's really good

at alternative asset management, huge investments. These are big capital industrial investments.

And the company is one of these ones that it doesn't really produce earnings in the same way a

typical company would. So when you look at this company and the growth of it, you want to look at

the distributable earnings. This is a KPI that we track. So it's a company that generates profits.

It can issue them back out to investors or it can reinvest back into different projects and build

up those distributable earnings in the future. When we look at who owns this company, we have it in

the Chuck Ockery portfolio. And Brookfield is the second largest position, 13.51% of their portfolio,

right behind Mastercard. So this is a massive position in Chuck Ockery's portfolio. We also have

Bill Ackman making this one the largest position now. It's at 18%. And then finally, we have another

super investor here, a much smaller portfolio, but he also has a huge percentage into Brookfield

corporation. We have Josh Teresoff with 19% of his portfolio in Brookfield. And this stock is a

bit unique. It's not selling off because of a SaaS apocalypse or anything like that. It's not

selling off because of cloud. This company is selling off more because of macro concerns. All the chaos

in the world. What does that mean for the economy? What does it mean for interest rates? There's a

concern that interest rates might be a little bit higher for longer. If oil prices go up, it could

spur inflation. So investors in Brookfield are looking at this and saying, hey, this company does

really well when interest rates go down. If this is going to make oil prices higher and interest rates

up for longer, then maybe I'll move to a different company. So it's these macro concerns that are

being priced into the stock. But all of those concerns are cyclical and they're not even certain.

There's a good chance that interest rates could continue to go down. Oil prices go up quickly,

but they also go down quickly. It's highly volatile. If the war ends relatively soon, if oil prices

start to crash back down, if it looks like inflation is not going to skyrocket. And the future looks

a bit more clear, which could happen. It's happened before. Then Brookfield Corporation could be at

an incredibly good deal today. It could be a stock that's a very wide-mote stock that has nothing

wrong with the business. The business is fantastic. This one is down off of its highs around 15%.

And in most outcomes, this will be a great company to hold. Now, finally in number six,

we have another company that is a genuine compounding machine. One of the most, well, at least

considered the most high-quality company on planet earth. But it's also a company that sold down

out of real fairs. The narrative has changed for this one, which is S&P Global. S&P Global is

down to $420. It's down another 3.5% on the day. If we look at it just this year, it's down 16%.

And if we look over the past year, it's down around 25% from its recent highs. When we look at the

list of concerns that investors have for S&P Global, you can basically summarize it into just a

few things. One of them is the AI concerns. We have the SaaS Pock lips and you've seen what

Claude can do, right? It can write code. It can do legal work. And a lot of investors are saying

it can even do a lot of research on stocks. What if it replaces all the analysts at S&P Global?

We have a concern that AI is going to commoditize data. And it's one of those things where it's

guilty and tell proven innocent. Now, when we look at who owns this stock, there are a list of some

of the best investors in the world that have a large portion of their portfolio in S&P Global.

One of them is Kantian Capital Management. They have over $18 billion invested. They have S&P Global

right here as their third largest position, 5%. Huge stamp of approval given to this company.

And again, they've held the stock before it traded down since it's had a better valuation than

it was when this is reported. We also have Chris Hone. This is an 11% way to position. And again,

Chris Hone doesn't own stocks that have weak modes. He just won't. If he thinks there's

any concern for the moat at all, he'll sell the stock. So we'll see if he's selling the company

right now. Maybe he is, but I have my doubts. When we look at S&P Global, many of the concerns about

AI are dramatically overstated. And of course, we have Valley Forge Capital Management.

Right at the crosshairs of many of these sell-offs, we have S&P Global as his second largest position,

a massive 21% weighted position. Last quarter, he didn't sell a single share. I'm doubtful that he

will this next quarter. Now, another thing that's going on with S&P Global is while this company's

stock price is getting clobbered here today, it's down 16%. It's had a dramatic sell-off. They are

very cash low-positive company. They are using their cash to aggressively buy back their shares.

If we look at just the past five years, they issued a lot of shares for an acquisition. Ever since then,

they've been reducing their share count every single quarter. Now, management has specifically said,

because of this sell-off, they are buying back shares more aggressively, far more aggressively than

planned. They're basically doubling the buybacks that they previously planned on doing. So right now,

there's no bigger buyer of S&P Global stock than S&P Global. They're in the market every single

day doing buybacks, which should make the stock go up. So when I look at this company, I also

look at the historical valuation. It's at basically a five-year low and it's historical valuation.

When we look at the Ford PE ratio, it's very reasonable. It's a high-quality company trading at

22 Ford PE. The free cash flow yield is now above 4%. The company's being priced with a lot of

pessimism. A lot of the AI fears are priced into this one and I continue to hold this one in my

portfolio and buy more of it. So this is another compounding machine owned and validated by many of

the greatest investors in the world. And it's the patient investors that get the reward. The ones that

are willing to buy today and then to hold on as the narrative switches for these companies. And I

think all of these companies are buys today. Now, let's go ahead and move on to some news. Now,

the first piece of news we have to get to is Tom Lee in this interview that went rather viral

because he's making a couple predictions here that don't seem like the normal Tom Lee predictions.

Let's go ahead and listen to this. Score more with the college branded Venmo debit card

and earn up to 5% cash back with Venmo stash. Got paid back with the Venmo debit card,

you can instantly access your balance and spend on what you want like game day snacks,

gear, tickets and more. The more you do, the more cash back you can earn. Plus,

there's no monthly fear minimum balance. Sign up now at Venmo.com slash college card.

The Venmo master card is issued by the bank court bank NA select schools available,

Venmo stash terms and exclusions apply at Venmo.me slash stash terms max $100 cash back per month.

This episode is brought to you by Indeed. Stop waiting around for the perfect candidate.

Instead, use Indeed sponsor jobs to find the right people with the right skills fast.

It's a simple way to make sure your listing is the first candidate seat.

According to Indeed data, sponsor jobs have four times more applicants than non-sponsored jobs.

So go build your dream team today with Indeed. Get a $75 sponsor job credit at Indeed.com slash podcast

terms and conditions apply. Now you're not negative on stocks but you do have a base case

that at some point this year we're going to go down 20% that we're going to have a bear market.

Was that the first whiff of that?

Our take is we do expect that to climb to happen when markets don't respond to good news.

I think we're in a period where we had a bear market already in software, the MAG7,

and in crypto. I think that's already taken out a lot of speculation.

So to me, I think our bet would be markets are actually going to lift through the end of the

month that we're going to actually be positive for March and maybe hit 7,300 later in the year

is when we think a bear market might show itself. What about oil? So he says he believes the S&P 500

is going to go up to 7,300 right now. It's at 6760. So he thinks we're going to have a rally.

But then we're going to enter into a bear market later on this year. Now that seems a little odd.

So let's go ahead and listen to his explanation of why he thinks this is the case.

But if I look back at the last two days, oil is $15 higher than it was last week,

but the S&P is higher. So to me, the market actually is handling higher oil prices better.

And you know, we wrote in our note this morning that we think higher oil prices are actually good

for the US stock market. Remember, there's the stock market and it's not always the economy.

So I think the US economy is going to have some risks for the reasons you describe,

which is why I think growth stocks start to look better, which is a lot of tech. And again,

the US is a growth index. I'd probably lean towards growth stocks outperform, which is not necessarily

a broadening trade. This is another point and another phrase that you'll hear frequently.

Again, the stock market is not the economy. And although that's true, the stock market is not

some perfect representation of the economy. But when you really dig down to it, the stock market

is reliant on economic growth. It is reliant on consumers. Consumers are the economy.

When consumers don't spend money on your favorite business, when they're not hiring at their

companies, when they're not signing up for licenses of Adobe or Microsoft, when they're not

signing up for Google products and licenses, when people aren't able to afford anything,

these companies that we're investing in don't make us much money. So one of the beliefs that I,

again, I've always had is that overall what's good for the economy is good for the stock market.

That is the relationship over the grand scheme. I don't agree that we should view oil going up

as a fine thing and that growth stocks will be just fine in that case. And I also don't believe

we should act as though the stock market is totally detached from the economy. Now,

moving on, we get to the fail of the week, which in this case is this interview by the politician

Andrew Yank. He went on the CNBC and you'll see throughout this interview that he makes many points

about how the US economy is in for a huge disruption, how people should be concerned about

what jobs are going to get, how everything looks bad because of AI. So let's go ahead and just

listen to this interview. I just came from an AI conference out west in Holy Cow. They said to me

that what we're going to see in the next six months, outstrips what we've seen in the last 10

years, because the rate of change is on a hockey stick and heading up. And I got to say, I'm pretty

up to date on this stuff and it blew my mind. What's some of the stuff I was seeing in terms of what?

So right from the start, we can see where he's getting his information. He just came from an AI

conference. We're in the conference. They said that things are going to be so different in the future.

Everything's going to change and we're in a hockey stick moment. These are the big grandiose

changes that all the AI leaders are promising. And that's something that you see a lot of.

We had Ben Affleck talk about this and he says that in many cases, he believes a lot of these AI

leaders are saying that everything's going to change to justify their high valuations of their

stocks to make it so that they get more investment. But we'll continue on here.

Well, there was one company that is selling autonomous coding for enterprises to big businesses and

their revenue is up 100 fold in the last 12 months. So if that continues, it's going to eat a lot

of the tech budgets from major corporates that used to go to humans. And so you're seeing the

employment of recent computer science graduates fall off a cliff from a lot of programs.

If you rewind what four years ago, what would we tell young people for a secure career learn to

code? And now the opposite of that is true. And this isn't just Andrew Yang saying this. There's

many people that have reiterated the same point trying to scare the general public that nobody can

find a job. And this is one of the common tactics of manipulation. It's highlighting certain data

while completely ignoring other pieces of important data. For example, if we look at just the data

that new college graduates can't find jobs, although there is some truth to that, there's also a

lot of important context missing. For example, one of the reasons why that's the case, why it's so

difficult for new graduates to find jobs is because companies are keeping employees longer.

They're not firing employees as often. They're not turning over employees quite as frequently.

So while it's true that it's harder to find a job, it's also true that once you found one,

you're likely going to keep it a lot longer. You have the economy having less turnover,

less firing of long tenured employees, which is a good thing. So basically what people like

Andrew Yang are doing are highlighting one negative thing going on that it's harder to find a job

without highlighting the other relevant fact that people that are in jobs today are keeping them

longer. Now another thing that's being left out here is it is true that in the past year,

it's harder for college graduates to find jobs. But that's also not something that you

can purely blame on artificial intelligence. For example, many of the industries that college

graduates are trying to go into, whether it's engineering, finance, and consulting, are the

very type of jobs that had massive hiring just a couple years ago. So two to three years ago,

those industries were hiring everyone, paying them massive salaries. Every college graduate

was guaranteed a great job a few years ago and those businesses over hired. They pulled forward

demand. So now they're going through a period where there's some cyclicality. It doesn't mean

that the job market's broken indefinitely or the AI's crushing all these jobs. What this means

is that there's a lot of hiring a couple years ago. A lot of these companies are wanting to keep

their employees for longer. So there's some cyclicality in the pull forward for jobs. And this is

what a normal economy looks like. There's time periods where it's easier to find jobs and there's time

periods where it's more difficult to find jobs. By Andrew Yang suggesting that this is because of AI,

that everything's changed and that no college graduate will find a job ever again, that is taking

a select piece of data without proper context and trying to put it into the so-of-the-sovrol narrative.

That's not really proven by the facts today. Now, it makes a lot of other points, so we'll continue

on with this. Look, Dario Amade, the CEO of Anthropic, laid it out very clearly and he's been doing

so repeatedly saying, we're going to automate away up to 50 percent of entry-level white-collar

jobs in the next several years and I believe him. The easiest people to fire are the people you

haven't hired yet, which again is why you see the hiring of recent college graduates heading down

and the unemployment rate over 50 percent. The unemployment rate among college graduates is now

the same or higher than non-college graduates for the first time in history.

This is again, Andrew Yang doing something that is a common tactic for any politician, which is

using a hyper-specific anecdote and applying that broadly as impending doom for the rest of the

entire economy. He referenced one company that 100xdits revenue. We don't even know the starting

point. Maybe it went from $10,000 to a $10,000, right? We don't know what company this was,

but that's his evidence to brace for impact that these AI companies are taking over. He won't even

give us the name of the company to look at as the example. Then a core part of his argument

is that new college graduates this year are having a hard time finding a job, which goes in perfect

consistency with the overall economic cycles. Couple years ago, they found jobs just fine, many

companies over-hired. He doesn't attribute that to a low-fire situation, which is common in the

economy. He gives it as another example of impending doom. Of course, he'll keep referencing AI

companies. He went to an AI conference. That's why he's so shocked about this. He heard a story of

one AI company, 100xdits revenue. Now he's referencing the CEO of Anthropic and AI company,

where the CEO again makes grandiose promises. These are the core of his arguments, and they ignore

almost every bit of other economic data. For example, while it is difficult for new graduates

to find jobs in very specific sectors, there's also many sectors that can't hire enough people.

In health care, many of the financial services, skilled trades, their companies can't hire enough,

they can't find enough talent. There are still huge swaths of the economy that are hiring

aggressively, but none of that is mentioned here because it doesn't fit with the narrative being

painted. Now he continues on, again, going through the most fair-mongering scenarios possible.

Let's go ahead and look at the next one here. The big one, and Jamie Diamond referenced this

just the other day. If you get to truck driving, then all bets are off because this is the number one

job in 28 states. You're talking about millions of middle-aged men for the most part,

10 to 15 percent of whom are military veterans, a lot of them are gun owners. So if you get to that

occupation, then you're going to see, in my opinion, riots in the streets.

We're going to see riots on the streets if we get to truck driving. Riots on the streets see the

imagery being painted here. And this is more of the panic and fear that people try to instill

to say that you should be concerned. If you are a young person, the future looks really dark

and visible. It's desolate, and it's completely wrong. These people are completely wrong, and they

have been completely wrong ever since the beginning of the country. They've been wrong over and over

again. You can look at any type of technological evolution, whether it's the internet, whether it's

the assembly lines, whether it's advanced farming, every single one of them led to better jobs,

more job growth. It was very visible how many jobs would be destroyed, but what was invisible is

how many jobs that would create afterwards. For example, when you look at just coding as an

example, it has gotten much easier to code things. Most developers now can simply just type in text

and it will code for you. And although you think that that may destroy jobs that will need fewer

coders, we're seeing a bit of the opposite. Since companies are getting a higher return on their

developers, they have more cash flows and profits to hire more developers. When you get a higher return

on something that has incredible levels of demand, like coding talent, you want more of it. I can see

the very same thing. With Qualtrum, we went from one developer to two. We doubled our development

capacity, specifically because I'm getting a higher return on them. They can work faster. They

don't need to do all the legwork of writing every single line of code by themselves. Since they're

doing more, I can invest more in them and get a higher return. I can get more for my dollar.

In many cases, these type of technological disruptions create more cash flows, higher profits

for companies that are then reinvested in new opportunities. Andrew Eng will tell you not of that.

He won't paint a picture of new companies developing new products and entirely new industries

that create new demand and higher profits and better jobs for people. Even though this is

exactly what's happened all throughout the beginning of this country, it's likely what's going to

happen in the future. He paints a Tesla outcome where all there is is job destruction with no higher

profits, no margins, no reinvestment, no new capital, no new risk being invested into the market,

no new company started. That doesn't really sound practical. That doesn't sound realistic because

it's not. This is fair mongering. We're seeing it over and over again. And the concerning thing is

that some people buy into it. You become very concerned about the future that you don't have a

bright future that you shouldn't invest in your skillset and this couldn't be further from the truth.

Even the example of trucking, like if we just look at that one example, the only thing that AI

can accurately do right now in robotics is drive a truck on a very long straight road with no

adverse weather and no hazards. That's not what truck drivers deal with. They have to pull big

trucks. It's dangerous for long periods of time. They have to deal with adverse weather.

They have to deal with road hazards. They have to secure loads and hitches. They have to unload

things. They have to inspect the truck. They have to make sure everything's running smoothly.

In this case, AI is going to be complimentary to their job, make it safer as they're driving on

those long straight corridors. But it's not going to replace them. It's not even close to doing that.

And there's a demand for truck drivers right now that continues to increase. We need more of them

not less. So even in the example of a job that he's saying is going to go away,

these jobs are saying just the opposite. Please apply today will pay you good money. My suggestion

is to not listen to people like Andrew Yang. Not only because they're wrong, but also because you'll

get far less far listening to people like him than people that are optimistic. One's it would say

to continue working. Continue your skill set that you will eventually find a job if you haven't

already. The unemployment is 4.4%, which is considered fully employed right now. The economy is

great within the United States. And that the future is not going to be some bleak,

desolate future where AI takes over every job that's not even happening today. The predictions

that it's going to happen in the future are in most cases in markets where these companies are

trying to hire more aggressively. AI makes things more efficient and profitable. Profits are

reinvested into future growth. The people that remain optimistic, the people that ignore,

the doom and gloom will get much further. And that is why today Andrew Yang is the fail of the

week. That's all for now. See you in the next one.