The 2026 Over/Unders

Hey everyone and welcome to Atholetters for Thursday, March 26th, 2026 opening day just

around the corner and overunders are back on Atholetters.

Arden, are you ready for this?

I was born ready.

Well our longtime listeners will know that we have done many an over under episode over

the years and there was a period of time, I don't know four or five years ago where we

kind of stopped doing it, you know, it gets so busy around this time of year and it does

take a lot of preparation to believe it or not to come up with these and to set aside

the time.

So it kind of got pushed aside but we've been doing this for a long time way before, like

even before sports betting was like really, and this is not a betting thing but we're

just trying to have fun with this for the record but now I feel like overunders are much

more in the kind of discourse around sports and you know what, we were there, we were

there long ahead of the time and talking about it.

So really excited to discuss some overunders here Arden, I have 10 overunders for you.

As I understand it, have 10 overunders for me, correct, accurate, good.

So what we're going to do is we're going to go back and forth.

In years past we've done this a little bit differently.

We have essentially set it up as a kind of competition and I can recall like trying

to really precisely set the over under in such a way that me and Arden would have like

different answers.

That was fun.

This year we're going in blind.

I have no idea what Arden is going to ask me.

He has no idea what I am going to ask him.

So in that sense, it's not a competition, it's just for fun.

That being said, anyone who wants to play along as you're listening, please do send us

on social media if you want to reach us on Twitter, Blue Sky, whatever the case.

Feel free to send us your answers to our overunders.

We would love to see that and know that you're following along with us.

But as far as you know, myself and Arden, we're just having fun with this.

So that is the intention here.

Who knows?

We might have four or five of the same overunders.

So it's a good thing I have a backup list right here in case we need to.

I had a hard time pairing it down to just 10, but I've done it.

Yeah, I've got three backups.

Should we have any overlap?

Good.

All right.

So with that, we're just going to dive right in.

And I'm going to get this started here.

And on our episode yesterday, we talked about John Schneider.

The Blue Jays Manager.

My overunder for this season is John Schneider ejections.

The line is set at 3.5 and I'll give you a little bit of context here.

His ejection total for the last four years, two, two, four, and four.

And to be very clear, we're talking about regular season ejections here for the manager.

Which order did that run in?

Was it like oldest freshest or?

Yes.

Each of the last two years, he's been ejected four times.

I wouldn't have thought it was four last year.

I don't think I could name all four of them last year.

I wouldn't expect you to.

I'll go under.

I think that it's good.

I just don't think that he'll be ejected four times again this year.

I think it'll be more so close to the two.

Fair.

I think, should I take the overunder on my own overunders?

What do we think?

I say, yeah, say what you feel, man.

Let's do it.

I'll take the over.

Yeah, I think tonight's is getting ejected more than four times or more.

So I'll take the over on that one.

My first one, Max Scherzer innings pitched.

And I've set it at 104.25.

So the over is 105.

The under is 104 and 2 thirds.

If he got to 105, that would earn him $5 million in incentives

and make his deal an $8 million salary,

which when we were talking about the Scherzer deal,

we were like, yeah, it's probably something we were kind of expecting him

to be around $8 million.

So that's really why I just set it there at that.

So will Max Scherzer throw 105 innings this season or not?

I'm going over.

I think that the way he's starting right now, then again,

if we were truly playing this in a way of like,

we have to win.

There's something at stake.

Maybe I'm a little more vigilant.

But hey, this is a time of optimism.

Max Scherzer is healthy.

He's ready to go.

I'm taking the over there without any hesitation.

Yeah, I think I'm also going over even though last year was 85 innings.

Year prior to that was 43 and a third.

This is regular season innings only.

By the way, this is not included the postseason.

But yeah, I'll take the over on that.

Now that is, I think, going to negate one of my questions

because I had Max Scherzer starts on the list.

So we're going to punt that down the line.

I'll bring one of my backups into the fold here.

All right, so that brings me to my second over under.

This one is a little bigger picture.

We know this is the 50th season of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Really exciting.

Lots of really cool celebrations planned for the season.

It's, yeah, a lot of history worth getting into.

And my over under on this theme is 0.5 numbers retired this season.

Now, for context, the Blue Jays don't retire a lot of numbers.

They have Jackie Robinson's number 42 retired, of course.

They did retire Roberto Alamars 12, obviously his standing

in the organization has changed.

And Roy Halladay's number 32 has also been retired.

So what do you think over under 0?

Will a number be retired by the Blue Jays this season?

I'm going to go under.

They really don't retire numbers.

And we might actually talk to Mark Spiro there today

as we record this on Wednesday, March 25th.

And I might find out that was wrong.

But yeah, I think I'm going to go under.

I'm going to go over.

And I'm going to be generous to myself in this one and say

that if they announce the forthcoming retirement of a number,

that counts.

So I'm not trying to play with the strings on this one.

That would count for you as well if you want to change your answer.

But I think that they will at least announce

the retirement of a jersey this year.

Who do you think it's going to be?

Dave Steve 37.

Interesting.

Yeah, I could see it.

I don't know if there's another candidate really

to have their number retired.

I think it would be Steve logically.

Right.

I think that's really the only guy it could be unless you're

going to do like a delgado or something.

But I would also support that to be honest with you.

But I don't think that's going to happen this year.

That's the guy who I would think on the position player side

would be like, I don't think, you know,

for as great as Jose Bautista was, obviously,

I don't know if he's like number retirement worthy.

Like that's a super high bar, even like Tony Fernandez

didn't quite spend enough time in Toronto, in my opinion.

But delgado, I could see on the position player side,

Steve on the pitching side, but I don't think it'll happen.

Fair.

For mine, going back to the starting pitching well,

Eric Lauer games started.

And I have it set at 14 and a half,

because he started 15 games last season

in a much less crowded Blue Jays rotation picture.

A lot more competition for starts this year.

But I don't know how many people had him

in the opening day rotation.

And yet there is starting game three of the year.

So you know he's going to get at least one.

Will he be above or below 14 and a half game started?

Well, and if you would ask me how many starts he made last year,

I would not have said 15.

So that's a testament to what he did for this team a year ago.

Now, I'm going to take the under.

I think that we know there's trade of savage.

We know that Jose Boreos is working his way back,

Shane Bieber as well.

And furthermore, if the Jays are in it,

which we expect them to be at the trade deadline,

they could very well go out there and try to add.

Not to mention the ever present risk of injury.

So I'm going to take the under on this one.

I got to take the over.

I don't think it'll be by a lot,

but I could see him getting 15 again,

just because you're going to have injuries.

You're going to have periods of utilizing six starters.

You're going to have maybe a Cody Pond

steps into the bullpen at some point this year.

Maybe Treyis Average dips into the bullpen at some point this year.

Maybe Jose Boreos, just like based on performance,

isn't in the rotation over Eric Lauer

when they're both healthy.

Who knows?

So I think that Eric Lauer will make over 14 and a half starts.

Nice.

All right, that brings me to a hitter related over under.

Aloyha Menes has hit 31 home runs in the major leagues

in a single season.

In his career, he has 95 home runs.

And he did not hit any in the major leagues last year.

Now he is expected to go to AAA,

where he will try to work his way to the major leagues

and potentially offer some power for the Blue Jays.

My overrunner is Aloyha Menes home runs in 2026, 5.5.

So in the majors, correct?

Or just in the season.

Let's say with the Blue Jays, they have to be Blue Jays home runs.

He can't go and sign with the Nationals and have a count.

Okay, so Toronto Blue Jays major league home runs,

the overrunner is 5.5.

And let's include postseason home runs in there.

If he hits any postseason home runs, that counts.

Sure.

Below.

I will take the under on that.

Yeah, I will too.

Yeah, not to be a buzzkill,

but I guess we're both taking the under there.

Yeah, what happened to your optimistic tone there, Ben?

Well, we got lots of overrunners left.

All right, let's see if you're optimistic

about George Springer.

And my overrunners, I think they get more interesting

as I go here.

I'm just kind of getting some of the basic player performance

ones out of the way first.

So I've got George Springer stolen bases.

And I've set it at 15 and a half.

George Springer truly takes on the mantle of the OP,

the offensive player.

Last season, he stole 18 bases.

In 2024, he stole 16.

And in 2023, he stole 20.

Not necessarily what you would expect

from an outfielder who's getting into his mid-30s,

but Springer can still opportunistically take bags.

He stole in way more bases in his 30s than he did in his 20s.

And he is always looking for ways

to contribute in the OP role.

So 15 and a half stolen bases for George Springer,

are you over or under?

Man, Springer's stolen base success rate with the Blue Jays

is 88%.

That is really high.

League average would be around 70%.

Give or take depending on the year.

So he's been very efficient with the Blue Jays.

I'm taking the over.

Yeah, I'm taking the over.

He has surpassed 15 and a half in each of the last three

seasons.

Even when he didn't really hit, he was stealing bases.

And he's healthy now.

So yeah, I'm taking the over on this one.

Yeah, I'm also taking the over.

I don't know if he's going to get back to 20.

Like he had in 2023, but I think high teens is very possible.

I think you'll see the Blue Jays stealing a lot more bases

in general this year, not only at the big league level,

where like someone like Andre Semenas is going to steal,

he's going to run a lot more this year than he did last year.

But I think throughout the organization,

you're going to see some like really high steel attempt

numbers from Blue Jays affiliates.

It's really been like a focus and a developmental like area

of emphasis for the Blue Jays this offseason,

this spring and into the season, just because last year,

like you look at a different sort of base,

a lot of different base running measures and grades

and the Blue Jays did not rank very well organizationally,

just like throughout the entire organization,

vis-a-vis other major league franchises.

So it's like something that's really been a big point of emphasis.

And I think you're going to see the Blue Jays

doing some different stuff when it comes to base running,

stealing bases throughout the minors.

And in the majors as well, I expect them to be pretty aggressive.

Interesting.

Did not realize that.

Okay, so that brings me to over under number four.

And this one is Louis-Varlin saves.

Now, Louis-Varlin has zero career saves.

He has never saved a game in the major leagues.

I think that will change this year.

So my question is how much will it change?

And so I have set the over under for saves

by Louis-Varlin in the regular season at 8.5.

Ooh, that is too high for my blood.

I think that Louis-Varlin will get saves this year,

but I do not think that he will get nine saves this year.

I could see somewhere in like the three to seven range.

So I'm going to take the under based on where you've set it,

but I do think that he is going to get saved.

I'm going over.

I'm going over and this is not a knockout.

It's not a knockout Jeff Hoffman,

who I think is going to have a good year.

And I think he's going to be the closer and stay the closer.

So this isn't some sort of prediction

that Jeff Hoffman is going to lose his job.

Quite the contrary, but I think that we've just,

we're gradually shifting into a new paradigm

around relievers and how they're used.

And I think that the Blue Jays are going to shift

with the sport on this one.

And I think it's just so much less

that singular closer who's getting 40 plus saves.

I think it's so much more about balancing workload,

balancing the needs of the day, the matchups,

the opponent, everything.

And Louis Barlin's going to be really important,

so I'm taking the over.

I tend to like I agree with you

and like I agree with you rationale.

And with your justification,

I just don't agree that it's going to be nine or above.

Like you look at the last several years,

other than Hoffman and Romano,

did anyone get to nine?

I doubt it.

I, well, this is where it's a bit of a leap of faith

because teams like the Rays, teams like the Dodgers,

teams like the Brewers,

they really distribute things unevenly.

It's not like Tain or Scott was saving every game

for the Dodgers last year,

with the Rays, it's always moving around.

Now, you could point to,

hey, there are some modern teams like the Guardians

where it's really kind of just centered around one dude

for a long time, that was a manual class A.

Obviously, he loved this episode

and then it became Cade Smith.

Sorry, catching straights here.

But yeah, you know,

so there are analytical teams out there

that end up really going with that singular closer.

I could just see a little shift

where the J's end up using multiple guys

just depending on the situation.

So the only non Hoffman Romano pitcher

to get that like nine saves in the last several years

was Chad Green, the year that Romano was hurt

and like unavailable.

So Chad Green took over as a closer at 17.

Other than that,

you have to go back to 2019 and Ken Giles

was the last time that a non-Romano Hoffman pitcher

got nine saves or more for the Blue J's.

So yeah, that's quite a bit.

What you're saying is I'm making a bold, very audacious.

That is, you were applauding my courage on this.

That's, thank you for that is exactly

how you should interpret my comments.

Okay, Hazus Sanchez played appearances

versus left handed pitching.

I have set the over under at 39 and a half.

Oh wow.

Will Hazus Sanchez get 40 played appearances

against lefties this year?

Now, can you provide a little context for the listeners

and also for me on this one?

Yes, what context would you like?

Would you like Hazus Sanchez like historically

how often he has seen lefties?

Yeah, like last year, how many times

did he bat against lefties?

Last year, he had 75 played appearances against lefties.

In 2024, he had 115 against lefties

and in 2023, he had only 50 against lefties.

Some context like last year with the Blue J's,

Nathan Lucas, 53 played appearances against lefties.

I mean, easy over.

Yeah, hitting that hard.

I mean, to me, when you're looking at Hazus Sanchez,

first of all, it's, can this guy hit at all?

And I think he can.

I believe that this is a majorly cater

who's capable of doing damage

against the best pitchers in the world.

So that's going to keep them in the lineup,

like the starting lineup on days, righties are starting.

Some of the times, there are going to be situations

where John Schneider pulls him late in the game.

But if they're up big or down big,

maybe it's someone else, maybe they get Addison Barger,

Dalton Varsho off their feet instead,

and then Sanchez ends up staying in the game.

There's also a scenario where Sanchez performs well enough

that he is actually starting against some lefties.

I'm not predicting that and I don't think that's plan A

based on the current roster configuration of the J's,

but you never know, the season is long.

There could be times where they need him to do that.

So to me, this would be a comfortable over partly just

because I believe in Hazus Sanchez,

the overall offensive player.

I am to take the under and that's just because I think

that if any lefty outfielders are starting

against left handed pitching,

it's going to be Dalton Varsho and Addison Barger.

And I think that later in games,

if you're going to have a lefty facing a left handed pitcher,

I'm going to have it be Nathan Lucas over Hazus Sanchez

because at least Lucas makes a lot of contact.

A lot of swing and miss in Hazus Sanchez's game.

And if you're going to be like taking a really,

really suboptible matchup there with lefty on lefty,

I would rather it be Lucas because at least he's going

to put the ball in play.

Yep, that's fair.

That's fair for sure.

Okay, my final one before we take our first

and only break of this episode is about Scott Boris,

the baseball super agent.

And hey, this is an agent who represents Dylan Seas,

Okamoto, Dalton Varsho, among others.

So the powerful agent who is very connected to the Blue Jays,

the over under is this.

Scott Boris media availability's at Roger Center in 2026,

0.5.

And I also want to add the possibility.

We know Scott Boris and the Boris Corporation,

they represent a lot of talk draft picks.

So it's possible that he would be here representing a draft pick.

It's also possible that, hey, the Blue Jays,

famously, quite a good team,

and played deep into the playoffs last year.

If that happens again, entirely possible

that he could be at Roger Center for the ALCS,

for the World Series, whatever the case.

So there are many ways that this could happen.

All you would need is one, Scott Boris Scrum

to hit the, to make the over hit right here, Arden.

What are you thinking?

Yeah, so if it was like three of us talking to him,

that would count.

It doesn't just have to be him up on a podium,

podium sit next to Dalton Varsho.

Well, I think it would count.

It can't be just you, me and Shy, for example.

It can't be just three writers from the Toronto Star.

It can't be just three writers from the athletic.

It would have to be multiple outlets gathered around.

I don't think there have to be cameras per se,

but it has to be a group setting,

where Scott Boris is addressing a collective of media.

So I want to say like over five members of the media

from different, like with different outlets represented.

Is that what we're looking at?

I think as long as three different outlets are represented,

then we're good.

I'm going to take the under on that.

Okay.

I could see Scott Boris turning up and like,

yeah, you know, you me and Shy talked to him

or maybe even like, yeah, it's just you and like Mitch Bannon

from the athletic or whatever, like, I could see that,

but I don't think I'd see like more formal, larger gathering

around Scott Boris at Roger Center.

Again, this is at Roger Center, right?

This isn't, yeah, because like at Angel Stadium,

like, I mean, you know that's gonna happen.

So yeah, I'll take the under.

I'm taking the over.

I'm taking the over.

And as a promise to our listeners,

I will not put my hand on the scale here.

I, if I see Scott Boris at Roger Center,

I'm not gonna, you know, yell over, hey, Mitch,

come over here, hey, hey, Keegan, come over here

and then make that happen.

That's not gonna be the way this unfolds.

I will, I promise to play this one with integrity,

but I am taking the over.

Do you have a prediction of like what the reason for that will be?

Do you think Dalton Virtual Extension or a draft pick

or I did some other reason I'm not thinking of?

I don't really have a prediction.

But I also just kind of want to take the over on this one.

Because I think if it does happen,

it would be a fun callback on our,

if we end up recapping this later in the season,

which hopefully we will.

Sure.

All right, my final one of the first half here,

team shutouts.

How many shutouts will the Blue Jays

be on the right side of in 2026?

I'm setting it at 11 and a half.

So do the Blue Jays have 12 shutouts this year for context?

Last year, the Blue Jays had eight shutouts.

That was tied for third lowest in MLB.

The league average was 11 shutouts per team.

Pittsburgh Pirates had the most in baseball at 19.

I should have looked into how many of those were skiing starts

probably more than a few.

So if the league average last year was 11,

then the Blue Jays did not shut out a lot of teams last year,

tied for third fewest.

Will the Blue Jays be above last year's league average

of 11 shutouts?

I'm going to say no.

Not to end this segment being a hater,

but shutouts are just hard.

And it just takes so much going well.

And shutouts are never the goal.

Winds are the goal.

So I, I don't know.

On the one hand, like, hey, Dylan Seas,

like this is a pitcher who has the potential to go

and do some dominant things on a pitching map,

especially with this defense behind him,

which should be a great defense, by the way.

And I think that's been under discussed.

When you talk about Kirk and Ernie Clement

and Andres Hamanas and Dalton Varsho off the middle,

that can really support Dylan Seas.

And is a huge reason for optimism here.

But I think even with that said,

that's just a lot of shutouts.

I mean, that's what would that be, 8% of their games.

I just, I don't foresee that.

I don't foresee that many shutouts.

I'm going to take the over.

And to me, it's just a bet on the Blue J's pitching

being that much more improved over, you know,

over where it was in 25.

I think that there were probably a lot of shutout

opportunities last season that got spoiled by, like, say,

a, like, Chad Green Homer, you know, you know,

in a low leverage spot or, you know, like,

Paxton Schultz or, like, some, you know,

name your other random Blue J, Justin Brull,

Jacob Barnes, whatever.

Name your other random Blue J's reliever from last year

who would, like, come in and give up, you know,

or run in a, when you're trying to protect, like,

a 678 run, eight, nothing lead.

I think of this year, not only, like, obviously,

adding a Dylan Seas to the rotation and, you know,

having Shane Bieber whenever he's ready to pitch.

It's not only that, but I think it's also the fact

that in the bullpen, you're going to have a lot of quick

shutout earnings from a Tyler Rogers.

I think it's that Brendan Little looks vastly improved

to what he was late last season.

I think the guys like Mason Fluarty and Braden Fisher,

just having a year of LB experience into their belts.

It's going to make them a lot more reliable.

Um, and I think that it's also a full season of Louis

Varland, who I expect to be really good out of the bullpen

as well.

So to me, give me the over 11 and a half shutouts

for the Blue Jays in 2046.

Nice.

That's, that's great.

Uh, I, yeah, that's, that's a good start.

We've got a lot more coming up here.

We're going to step aside for a moment,

but I have overunders on the theme of home runs,

Treyis Average, LA Dodgers, Boat of Shet.

We're going to cover a lot more ground on our next segment

when we return on Atholetters.

All right, we are back on Atholetters,

which is produced by Christian Ryan.

Thanks to Christian for producing this episode.

Thanks to Arden.

Thanks to our listeners who are here along with us

as we get ready for the 2026 season.

Could not be more excited to be, uh,

podcasting and writing about the Jays this year.

So great to, uh, to be making some predictions here.

And I will say Arden, before I get to my first

over under of the second half here, um,

I really wanted to have an over under connected to Vlad Jr.

and the Yankees and the things that he says about them

and the ways that, you know, he's made some memorable comments,

but I couldn't find a way to phrase it.

I just couldn't find a way to get there because, you know,

what constitutes saying something memorable,

what passes that threshold, it was too tricky.

So my first over under is a Vlad Jr. over under,

but it's a little bit more basic and nothing wrong with that.

So we are going home runs over under for Vladimir Guerrero

Jr. in the regular season in 2026.

I'm setting the over under at 36.5.

And I will say for context that everyone knows Vlad,

we don't really need that much context for this one,

but zips, which loves Vlad, the projection system,

zips forecast 32 home runs.

I mean, it's a monster season for Vlad.

So what are you taking on 36.5?

I unfortunately have to take the under on that.

36.5 is just too rich for my blood.

I could see the zips projection.

I could even see 35.

Certainly capable of 37 and above,

but the last time he did that was 2021 when he hit 48.

He has otherwise never had more than 32 in a season.

So to me, I'm going to have to go under.

I think that he'll likely top out at 35 or 36.

And if that's the case,

he could still have a monster season.

He could still be an MVP caliber player

given the on base ability that he has,

given the amount of singles and doubles that he hits.

So that is not by any means a slight.

However, I am going to take the over here.

I think that we're talking about a special player,

a special offensive player,

someone who in the World Baseball Classic

and in the World Series in his most recent samples

of baseball against really tough level pitching

has gotten under the ball,

has found ways to lift it with power

into the air and into the seats.

And so for Vlad Jr., in his age 27 season,

I am going to take the over here.

Only nine players in baseball last year who hit 37 or more.

So that has certainly select company

and he could certainly be among them.

But let me ask you this.

Luca, how many hitters in baseball

do you think are actually better than Vlad Jr?

Because I don't think the list is not long.

No, who's better than Vlad Jr?

So hey, judge.

Yep, judge.

For power, like if we're talking about power, Schwarber is,

if we're talking about power, Nick Kurtz is.

If we're talking about overall hitter,

yeah, yeah, Soto is better than Vlad.

I think we can say that clearly.

Akunya is in that discussion.

Akunya is a monster,

especially if we're talking about overall offense

but the guy walks a ton, amazing, amazing power as well.

So I think Akunya needs to be in that discussion.

Bobby Whitt.

As a hitter.

Yeah.

As a hitter, there is an offensive player.

As a hitter, there is a hitter.

I mean, this is a guy who could hit like 330 with 35 bombs.

Yeah.

Okay, Bobby Whitt's in there.

He's in that range.

Like he might go 40-40 this year.

Yeah, but yeah.

But again, we're talking about hitting

as opposed to the overall offensive production,

including base running.

Because obviously, you know, base running,

you know, Vladdy, Vladdy is not, you know,

going to be on that level.

Try as he might.

I think Vladdy's a better hitter than Julio Rodriguez

or Elidela Cruz.

I think he's a better hitter than Kyle Tucker

or Gunnar Henderson or Corbin Carroll.

Or, you know, Kamenero, if you're talking pure power,

I mean, you could have a conversation about that.

But, you know, Tati's is probably on his level.

Tell Raleigh for pure power belongs in that discussion.

But I think if you're just talking about hitting

for power, hitting for contact and plate discipline,

Vladdy's in that inner circle.

Right.

In the context of this over under,

if we're talking like pure power,

I got to take Peter Lonzo over him.

Sure.

Probably have to take Nick Kurtz over him.

Yeah.

Devers would be like in line with Vlad, you know?

I don't know who's above the other in that conversation.

Yeah, but yeah, in terms of like pure,

like the special thing about Vladdy is that

he could do the Bobby Whit thing

where he hits like 330 or 35 bombs.

Like that is rare.

Yeah, it really is.

So, all right, that's over under number one here.

All right, let's do an Alejandro Kirk over under here.

And I would like to know if you think

that Alejandro Kirk's walk rate will be over

or under his strike out rate.

So for context, last year,

Alejandro Kirk had a 9.5% walk rate

and an 11.7% strike out rate.

So the strike out rate was 2.2 percentage points

above his walk rate.

In 2022, Alejandro Kirk's first full MLB season,

he had an 11.6% walk rate

and a 10.6% strike out rate.

So this has happened before.

From Alejandro Kirk, not that long ago,

he had a walk rate that was one percentage point

above his strike out rate.

And we can find recent examples of this happening.

Last year, Kyle Tucker had just one less walk

than strike outs.

Her although Perdomo had a 13.1% walk rate

and an 11.5% strike out rate.

Luis Arize did it last year as well.

In 2024, three players did it.

Stephen Kwan, Mookie Betts, sorry, four players.

Kyle Tucker and Juan Soto in 2023.

Three players did it.

Arize, Jose Ramirez, Alex Breggman.

And in 2022, eight players did it.

Luis Arize, Stephen Kwan, Yandid Diaz, Michael Brantley,

Vinnie Pasquantino, Alex Breggman, Juan Soto,

and Alejandro Kirk.

So over under, Alejandro Kirk's walk rate

over or under his strike out rate.

This is a good one.

And I want to take the over as in,

I want to say that he's going to walk more

than he's going to strike out.

But my brain won't let me.

So I have to take the under, even though that's kind of sad.

I'm going to take the over just because I was kind of happy

with this over under, I had concepts and I want to have.

That's really the only reason I've taken the over.

I like it.

I will say, I'll give you, I'll give you

in our listeners this.

I will say that there will be a blue J

who walks more than he strikes out this year.

And I'm going to say it's going to be a flag railroad

junior.

And last year, Vladie walked 81 times.

He struck out 94 times.

I think that those numbers could flip this year.

Is he's a little bit more patient?

And if he does access that power,

pictures are going to be more scared of him.

So I actually would say that if there's a blue J who does that,

it'll be Vladie.

Sure.

Yeah, I can see that.

OK, next up, we're going to stay on the theme

of power here.

And last year, there was one blue J's player who

hit 25 or more home runs, George Springer.

This year, my over under for players on the blue J's,

with at least 25 home runs, is set at 2.5.

So will there be three players on the blue J's?

And they all have to come with the blue J's.

They can't be acquired in a trade amid season.

And they reached 30 total like Suarez last year.

It's like they all must be with the blue J's.

2.5 is the over under for 25 or more.

I think that Vlad will do that.

I think that Dalton Varsho will do that.

And I think that one of George Springer or Kazuma Komodo

will do that.

So I'm going to take the over.

I too will take the over here.

And my reasoning is very, very similar to yours.

You could even dream about Addison Barger, the Asus

Sanchez.

I mean, there are other guys who could do it.

But I agree that Varsho, Vladie, Springer,

Komodo, those are the core players who

have the chance to bring power to this team.

And it's kind of wild that they made it to the World Series

with one due to a 25 home runs last year.

Yeah, those are the names.

But I think you could put Barger in there as well.

I didn't consider Sanchez just because I don't know the playing

time will be there for him to get to that many.

But I could definitely see Barger, if he stays healthy

in place as much as we expect him to.

I could actually see him hitting 30.

So yeah, I think it's a pretty easy over for me.

Nice.

Let's do another quick counting stat here from me.

And this is going to be Sacrifice Bunts.

The Blue Jays last year led the American League in Sacrifice

Bunts with 35.

It is my favorite thing to give John Schneider

grief about because he talks about how he hates bunting.

Doesn't like bunting.

And yet his team leads the league in bunting.

He calls for more bunts than any other manager in baseball.

The guy who hates bunting.

So last year, Blue Jays led the AL in Sacbunt with 35.

Will the Blue Jays as a team have over or under 29 and a half

Sacrifice Bunts in 2026?

Easy under.

And I would even take the under on 25 and a half.

I think it's going to be a significant reduction in bunts.

And I almost think that last year, it just unfolded the way

it unfolded and the bunts made sense in those situations.

And I kind of think that was a one-off.

I don't necessarily forecast this team

as a bunting powerhouse going forward.

So I'm comfortably under on that one.

I think it very much depends on health

because I get right, like if they on a nightly basis

have like a Springer, Varsho, Vlad, Barger, Kirk, Sanchez,

Okamoto type of lineup, then yeah,

you're not going to see much bunting from that group.

But if you get like a Varsho and Barger injury

or a Kirk and Vlad injury or whatever

and you're seeing a lot more lineups

that are like Clement, Hemenes, Schneider, Lucas, Stra,

Josh Kassovich, then I think you'll

see a lot more bunting.

So I'm going to also take the over.

It's just like a good vibes put out into the world

that the Blue Jays aren't going to have a ton of injuries

and aren't going to have to like manufacture as many runs

as they did last year.

You're taking the last year.

That's what I meant to say.

Yeah, sorry, yeah, I'm taking the under.

If I said over my mistake, I'm taking the under

because yeah, I just want to put out for the world

that all those guys are going to be healthy and productive

and be swinging for the fences regularly.

But if we run into a lot of lineups

where it's like, hey, Carlos Mendoza is playing regularly

in Johnson Class A's in there a lot,

then I think you could see this sacrifice bun

make it come back in a big way.

Yeah, no, that's a fair call.

And we all know that they will be calling on dudes

that we just don't expect as the season unfolds.

And look, it can be useful.

There's a time and place for it.

So nothing against a well-timed sacrifice bun.

If the game state is right.

OK, next for me is going to be a flip to the pitching side.

And we have not really discussed Trey's average yet.

But we all know how impactful he was last year.

His innings total for the season last year

was just shy of 140 when you include his minor league innings

and his postseason innings.

Now, the over under four, 2026.

And let's include his postseason innings here,

but not his minor league innings.

So major league innings for Trey's average.

I'm going to set the over under at 94.5.

Wow.

You've given me pause.

I'm going to take the over just for the sake of being optimistic.

But I could see the under materializing.

But 94.5, including postseason as well,

I'm going to take the over.

Just since you put that qualifier in there,

yeah, I'll take the over.

I will too.

I'm going to take the over on this one.

And I think it's close.

I mean, obviously, where this is kind of the fun of the over

under and where so much is obviously exposed later

about the assumptions we were making.

Me setting the over under at 94.5 is a reflection of the fact

that I think that's probably a fair range of where

they might be able to expect production from Trey's average.

And it's not a huge innings total,

but he's going to start the season on the injured list.

So that's part of it.

And we know they want to be really deliberate with him.

But with that being said, he's also one of their best

pitchers, and they need to win games.

So I think with that in mind, as the season progresses,

and as he hopefully gets healthier,

then we are talking about someone who pitches over 100

innings for this team.

Yeah, I think that's really well set.

I just look at the fact that he threw 25 plus innings

of the postseason last year alone.

And I think that, you know, as far as deliberate and cautious,

as the blue jays are going to be with Trey's average

out of the gates here, they're only

going to rely more and more on him towards the end of the season

as winning becomes more paramount.

And a lot of the developmental stuff

kind of goes out the window as you pursue raising a world

series banner.

So yeah, I'll take the over with postseason included.

Nice.

Are you prepared for maybe the most ridiculous over

under in the history of overunders?

Man, this is what this episode is all about.

And I will say, as a slight bit of foreshadowing,

my next two are getting a little spicier.

So I'm glad to hear that you're turning the,

turning the intensity up here.

It's not spicy.

It's just absurd.

Players named Jimenez to play for the blue jays this year.

And the overrunner is set at one and a half.

Jimenez spelled with a G or a J to play

for the blue jays this year over under one and a half.

So as we record this right now,

we don't know whether Leo Jimenez has made the team

just for transparency.

We're recording this on Wednesday,

even though this is our Thursday episode.

So okay, we don't know.

And there's also a lawyer, Jimenez,

who is the subject of a previous overunder.

I mean, and they're untold other Jimenezes out there

who they could trade for Joe Jimenez.

You never know.

I mean, I'm taking the overrun.

This one.

Yeah.

I'm going to take the under just to be fun.

Wow.

But I think that I know this.

There will 100% be one Jimenez to play for the trial blue jays.

I have no doubt about that.

But I do wonder if there will be another.

Wow.

Okay, that's actually a bit of a bold take by you

that you think that you could really envision

a season where Leo and Deloie Jimenez

do not play for this team.

I could see both of them not being in this organization

and may.

Mm-hmm.

I mean, it's possible that by the time people are listening

to this, you know, Leo Jimenez has been claimed

by the Rockies or something.

So, right?

We, this one might get dated faster than some,

but that's part of the fun of the overrunters.

Okay, next one for you.

Last year, World Series, intense.

Soon, the Dodgers come to Toronto.

They will play the blue jays in what will be a highly

anticipated, really, really fun series at Roger Center

just in a couple of weeks time.

My question, my over-under for you is,

how many benches clearing incidents will occur

between the blue jays and the Dodgers,

including the regular season and the post season.

So, should there be a World Series rematch?

And, you know, you got someone barking in the bullpen

again, then that would count as well.

But benches clearing incidents,

jays and Dodgers this season, 0.5.

So, there was one in the World Series,

if I remember correctly.

There absolutely was one.

I want to say Kirby Yates was in there,

Jeff Hoffman Yates now with the Angels.

But, yeah, there was a lot going on there.

Didn't, I think, on just Samana's got hit by a pitch.

Maybe by thrown by Rubleski, I forget through it.

I mean, couldn't tell you.

Right? But, yeah.

And he took offense to that.

And, yeah, there was a minor benches clearing incident.

I don't think there's actually much bad blood

between the teams, to be honest with you.

Like, I think there's actually a lot of mutual respect

because, like, they have so many superstars, you know?

So, superstars tend to respect one another quite a bit.

And there isn't really, like,

there aren't, like, the Jose Cabellero's on either of this,

either of these teams as well, you know,

who are going to start stuff, right?

You don't have, like, a Yanisis Cabrera in the mix.

Oh, again, what a loss.

So, I'm just not, I'm going to take the under

because I just don't think there is enough animosity

and there aren't enough, like, kind of,

belligerent protagonists in order to spur

a benches clearing incident between these two teams.

Okay, I'm going to take the under as well

because I think that, look, we don't need,

we don't want there to be a benches clearing incident.

We want cooler heads to prevail.

We want the actions on the field to speak for it

and maybe that's a bad flip.

Maybe that's a huge celebration after a strikeout.

That's great.

No one needs to be getting in each other's faces.

So, I'll, you know, I'll say that,

but I do actually think that there's, you know,

bad blood might be overstating it,

but I don't think these teams like each other.

I don't think that the front offices and coaching staffs

and players, I just, I don't think that you can play

a world series that's as highly contested

where they're lobbying MLB for every possible advantage.

They're working the umpiring staff

for every possible advantage.

Like, there's some stuff that happened

in the course of that world series that got people heated.

I don't know about the coaching staffs.

Like, I don't know how the Jay's coaching stuff

feels about like Chris Woodward.

But one thing that I do know is that Ross Atkins

and Andrew Friedman are really tight.

Those guys are actually very good friends.

So there's no bad blood there.

Right, but I mean, I would, I would put a strain on,

it would be reasonable for that to put a strain on any,

any relationship when the stakes are that high.

And I know there's tons of respect,

you know, let's say with Dave Roberts

and John Schneider, of course, there's tons of respect, right?

Of course there is.

But I also think they kind of annoyed the hell out of each other

in the world series.

Like, and I think that's kind of the way

it should be given the stakes.

I don't, I don't think I'm saying anything

that controversial here.

But like, I think it's not quite bad blood,

but there's, I think there was real frustration there.

Like, I know that the Jay's and Red Sox coaching staff

still like each other.

I know that the Jay's and Yankees coaching staff

still like each other.

I really can't say I've heard anyone

from the Jay's coaching staff say anything untoward

about the Dodgers coaching staff.

It doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

But I didn't, I didn't get any kind of sense of that

during the world series.

And like I said, I think the front offices actually are

like, could actually like each other.

Although I would like to see a bench

is clearing front office brawl, that'd be cool.

Sign me up for that.

Yeah, the quarterships are flying everywhere.

Watch out, someone's gonna get their khaki stained.

And that's, but hey, I wear khakis too.

That's not a, we're not trying to throw any shade.

I wear quarterships too.

But that's quite a scene that would unfold.

Yeah, so I'll take the under.

And it sounded like you took the under as well, right?

Yeah.

Yeah.

There we go.

All right, so we've both got two more.

I'm gonna knock off another ridiculous one

just because I, well, actually I'll save that one.

Let's do this one.

This is going to be Team B war.

So baseball war reference for the blue jays

from pinch hitters.

So last year, the blue jays led MLB

in baseball reference war from pinch hitters

with 0.7 of a win.

We know how the blue jays like to operate.

We know that they play the matchups.

We know that they pinch hit a ton.

Will the blue jays get 0.5 baseball reference war

from pinch hitters?

The over-unders set at 0.495.

Will they get to 0.5 baseball reference war

from pinch hitters?

As you were setting that up,

I wrote down 0.2 on this piece of paper in front of me

and that was kind of what I thought would happen.

So yeah, I'm taking the under.

I think it's just, it's so tough

and they were so good last year.

I just, I think that there's an element of skill there

for sure when it comes to the preparation,

how they work with the reject,

how seamless things are with the coaches,

how good the coaching staff is

when it comes to guys like David Popkins

and Louis and Audi in the dugout

in real time helping the hitters.

All of that is positive

and I think that they can still contribute positively

hence me picking positive war.

But last year, I mean, that's a high bar.

So I have to take the under.

Yeah, the blue jays were really, really good at it last year.

I don't know that they're going to like lose half a win.

But yeah, I think that getting above 0.495

is gonna be difficult.

I could see like 0.45, see 0.4 for sure.

But again, to 0.5 is hard.

The blue jays as pinch hitters last year,

like the numbers aren't, they don't blow you away.

Like it's a 737 OPS.

It doesn't take a ton.

They had a, they hit 261 with a 331 OBP and 406 slug

in 156 pinch hitting play appearances

four pinch hit home runs, 15 walks and 30 strikeouts.

That was good enough to get them to 0.7.

But yeah, that's a lot of pinch hit home runs.

I suppose I don't know, I would have to look

at the league wide context.

Man, I mean, just just by virtue of watching

a lot of baseball, I mean, that seems

not even counting the Addison Barger World Series

pinch hit home run I presume.

So I mean, they were an incredible pinch hit team last year.

Yeah, I, I mean, if they got two pinch hit home runs,

I think that would be a big success this year.

I'm like quickly trying to pull it up on fan graphs here,

looking for the split as pinch hitters.

Okay, well, while you do that,

I'll list off a couple of the overunders

that I just, just did not quite make my cut here.

This one combined games for Yareal Rodriguez,

Nate Garco and Adam Macco, 63.5.

So it's not going to make the cut,

that's off book, that's not official,

but that was one of the ones that I was thinking about.

And you know what?

I could see that one going either way.

All right, so you've been, you've stated

that four pinch hit home runs was a lot.

And that was above average,

seventh in baseball last year.

Would you believe there were six teams

that had more than four?

The Dodgers and Rockies had five apiece,

the Rangers and Yankees had six apiece,

the Tigers had seven.

And I don't think you would ever guess

that the number one pinch hitting home run team in 2025

was the Miami Marlins with nine.

Wow, wow.

No, I would not have guessed that.

So where was, if you're just scanning this quickly,

like what was, for like, for a median?

Like what were the 15th, 16th teams?

Like where were they at?

Three, three.

So the Blue Jays were just a hair above league average

for pinch hit home runs.

Well, well, I guess, I guess three is more standard

for pinch hit home runs, but fours, yeah, fours a lot.

And of course, they had the best pinch hit home run

of all time last year.

Yes, absolutely.

Okay, that's a good one.

This is my last one.

And it's a little bit out there.

I almost, it's a good thing.

Boba Shatt would never, ever listen to at the letters.

Some players, I could see them listening.

Boba Shatt, no, not gonna happen.

So here's my over under.

He returns to Toronto, on July 29th.

I presume that there will be a video tribute

on the scoreboard, a Roger Center when he returns.

And it will be an emotional day for many,

including Boba Shatt.

So the over under is this Arden.

Over under 0.5 tiers, cried by Boba Shatt.

Under, I've never, the closest I saw Boba Shatt come

to crying was after they eliminated in 2021.

Otherwise, I can't think of Boba Shatt crying at any point.

So I mean, when they were eliminated last year,

he was, he was very emotional as they all were.

But right, I wasn't in there for the crying though.

I don't think any of this were.

There was a lot of crying.

Oh, I saw them crying.

No, did you see it?

Did you see it?

Yeah, for sure.

Yeah.

I mean, Ernie was in tears for a while, like holding core.

There were a lot of them.

Like Bassett was really, you know, pretty much in tears.

Shurser, Boba was pretty close.

Like, yeah.

So it was an emotional season.

And I think that this is where, you know,

not to make light of it, but that's the over under.

Yeah, I guess I was doing TV stuff.

I didn't get in there quite early enough to see the crying.

But, yeah, I'm going to go under.

I don't think the Boba Shatt will cry.

I agree.

I don't think he's going to be crying when it happens.

But it will be a well-deserved tribute either way.

All right, you thought that was ridiculous.

So I'll go my last one here.

Okay, let's go.

Tyler Heinemann, relief appearances.

And I am setting the over under at two and a half.

Heinemann had three in 2025.

He had only one in 2024.

Tyler Heinemann, relief appearances, two and a half.

I like that one.

I think it's a fair over under and I'm taking the over.

I think there will be enough times

that the score is lopsided.

And the stigma around doing this has gradually disappeared

for position players to pitch.

There are certain rules around it now,

but I think that that set of conditions

will be satisfied often enough

that I'll take the over here.

Yeah, I think I'm going to take the over as well.

And that's just because there isn't an Isaiah

kind of Fulafo on the team anymore.

So you look at the Blue Jays projected bench

to start the season.

This will change obviously.

But to start season Heinemann, David Schneider, Nathan Lucas,

and Miles Strawh, who's pinchheading area, excuse me,

who's pitching among that group.

It's going to be Heinemann.

It's exactly so.

I'm taking the over.

Weird piece of trivia on the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays.

Tyler Heinemann made as many regular season pitching

appearances as Treyis Savage.

Wow.

That's nuts.

Yep.

Tyler Heinemann took the mound in as many games last year

as Treyis Savage did during the regular season.

That just like does not compute.

But I mean, I obviously believe it.

Three of these.

That's wild.

Well, look, that's a great note to end things on.

Anything else you want to say?

On this over, under this episode here on No, the ones.

I'll mention the ones that didn't make the cut for me.

I had team homeruns at $199.5.

I had Dalton Varsho homeruns at $29.5.

And I had one that was a shout out bench woman

because of the game he liked to play during spring

was like, can you name all the lefties the Blue Jays used

in 2025?

So I had left handed relievers used at $6.5.

Nice.

That's get all through my other ones out here.

Cody Ponce, ERA.

I sat at 4.20.

That's where Zips has Cody Ponce.

Kazuma Okamoto, F4, 2.0.

Those just kind of felt boring.

So I didn't use them.

Shane Bieber starts.

I set the over under at 7.5.

Last year was 7.

So the idea would have been,

it would have been, can he start more games this year?

He needed last year.

I know that seems low, but that's where I had it.

I had games at the MLB level.

This one is very art and it's well encoded.

Games at the MLB level for Josh Kassovich at $23.5.

I know you would have hit the over on that.

Yes, 100%.

Yes.

But I think for a guy who hasn't debuted

and not in the 40 man, I think it's a fair over under.

Jojo Parker, prospect about to make his debut,

OPS over under $800 in the minor leagues.

I think that could have been a fun one,

but wanted to keep it more to Major League Baseball.

And then Jose Barrio's strikeout percentage

last year was 16.3%.

And his career rate is higher than that.

I would have said it.

Well, I think I would have lowered this.

I probably would have said it around 16.3% for last year.

So those were the ones from me

that will stay on the cutting room floor.

Fair enough.

Alrighty, that is it for this week on At the Letters.

Enjoy opening day.

I'm sure some people right now

are listening to this on their way to the opener,

maybe driving, maybe taking transit,

maybe you're about to watch it at home,

whatever the case cannot wait to have you aboard,

whether you're watching or listening,

watching in person at Roger Center

should be a really fun season.

So Arden and I will be following it all,

covering it all for sportsnet and sportsnet.ca.

We will be reaching you via At the Letters.

And thanks to our producer, Christian Ryan,

for making sure that our episodes this week reach you.

And Sam Gray, which they always do, thanks to Christian.

So that is it for us this week.

We will talk to you very soon on At the Letters.

Enjoy opening week and have fun.