Technology Booms and Busts

Let’s look at the differences between when technology is in a boom-cycle vs. a bust-cycle, and what happens as things transition between cycles.

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SHOW NOTES:

HOW CAN WE TELL WHAT CYCLE WE’RE IN?

Right now, it feels like we’re in a bust cycle, or at least a correction-cycle, but how do we know what cycle we’re currently in - and more importantly - how do we know when the next cycle will begin?

THE GOOD TIMES, THE UNCERTAIN TIMES, AND THE BAD TIMES

History repeats itself, hence why it’s good to study history.
Follow the money. Is money cheap? Is money highly leveraged? What is motivating the money?
Does it make sense to a layperson?
Can the technology create a sustainable business model? Does it create an expanding ecosystem, or winner-takes-all?
Do the stories highlight the people, or the excesses of the people, or do they highlight value-creation? Stories are bolder in a boom.
Booms will start slow, will gain word of mouth, will sustain for a while, will begin to reach, and then crash hard. People are never quite sure when to jump into a boom. Reactions are faster in a crash.
Crashes happen quickly, as they are usually highly leveraged.
The winners in a crash are the ones with money to buy low, or are capitalized after a crash.

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