Teaser: Episode 225 - The Iran Episode

0:00Hello everybody and welcome back to the deep program. We start discussing Nicholas Cage movies after the banter, which you get to miss out on, but Today we are doing a Monitoring the situation update through my very nasally sniffles. I'm super clogged So I'm sorry if that if that tickles your ear in the wrong way, but hey The bombs be dropping so we have to kind of Get on top of all this and give you the hot Piping news Or analysis Okay, before we start, of course, thank you to everybody that supports us on patreon anybody who buys our merch Anybody who checks our stuff out and then engages with it We we love you and appreciate you our patreon our patrons get plenty of fantastic parks They get access to the discord they get extra episodes they get bonus episodes They get access directly to us that certain peers for as certain tiers. Excuse me for

1:00Monthly discussions and much much more. It's a very worth your money to do check it out That being said let's start today. We're gonna cover The it on situation generally, but I do need to give it and then this is a very quickly evolving situation Information changes very quickly So this could be outdated like not too far from from now, but that's not the point of this the point is to deliver Give you the tools for analysis to see what is happening why it's happening what the potential Future could look like or if you really would like a View into the future let's say To see what could possibly happen there is a white paper published by the Brookings Institute Which is titled which path to Persia options for a new American strategy towards it on and this was published in June of 2009 And it has a play for play for every single thing the Americans have done since To try to basically destabilize that on them for what ends of what purposes

2:00And they have by the way very it's fairly very well written right so and like I'm just gonna give you a few chapter headers Just so you get the vibes. It starts with dissuading Tehran the diplomatic option and offer Iran should interviews persuasion Tempting Tehran with engagement the engagement option disarming Tehran the military options going all the way with invasion The Osirak option so airstrikes leave it to be be allowing or encouraging an Israeli military strike And then toppling Tehran regime change the velvet revolution supporting a popular uprising Inspiring in insurgency supporting Iranian minority and opposition groups the coup supporting a military move against the regime And then deterring Tehran is the final containment and then accepting the unacceptable containment That's how they kind of finish it off with various conclusions subsequently And I'm not kidding when I tell you literally everything like to the letter everything that was done All the talking points all the justifications all the methods of bringing about are mentioned in this Brookings Institute article And there are similar or excuse me white paper And there are similar white papers for China for Russia for Venezuela for Cuba for like they it's out in the open

3:06Because they don't really care to to try to hide it and these white papers are basically the um The skeleton of what then gets formed into like these very quick few-page summaries That are presented to congressmen and members of senate the members of government in the states Who then just rubber stamp it essentially and then there's the these armies of lawyers that codify it into Law and policy and so on so forth so that's actually gets delivered So this is like a very clear view into how the United States Drums up creates and then subsequently implements It's foreign policy directive and towards what ends and what's most interesting is it's almost Always exclusively these sort of institutions highly funded by the private sector usually the military industrial complex and other like you know blackrock equivalents For the ends of you know reading natural resources maintaining access to financial markets blah blah the typical imperialist playbook So that's the little addendum that I want to give you you should generally check it out But before you check that out

4:06You should listen to this episode because we need to give you the the necessary tools to analyze the Bullshit that they say and that's where I'm going to hang it out hand it off to to my beautiful baby boy GT That's me also listening is better than reading never read only listen and only after I can't get behind this I came lots of cuz he works for he works for big book Okay, he's paid my big big book big book I wish I worked for big book I the fuck I wish Please JT tell us about a short history of moron Iran and the you I would love to I would love to Ah A land of contradictions Home to the mysteries I don't want to what the fuck do you mean you're wrong? Shut up sorry Home to the mysteries that have long intrigued the sunburned masses of the West To understand Iran

5:06I think we should probably start with the political economy of the early 20th century and the relationship arguments You're just on a roll today, aren't you buddy? Please you got all the races about you got anymore Eyebrows dude, we started this show with stereotypes about the radiance think it's like episode three of the deep program We were like I drive what Mercedes I use Gucci Yilty like so so it's You know, we've been proven right that they aren't good chats, you know fair enough. I rescind my criticism of your jokes. Okay Political economy right back to the early 20th century Relationship between Iranian labor Iranian resources and of course foreign capital. So By the 1950s Iran's oil sector This is it's most it's single most important source of national wealth was dominated by the Anglo-Iranian oil company a British firm that controlled extraction refining and export

6:08As you can probably guess the profits of this company float overwhelmingly to Britain while Iranian workers and the Iranian state received only a fraction of the value produced by their own natural resources Never seen this pattern before You're a little white Mercedes not and no white Mercedes Fun fact though this company which used to be called the Anglo-Persian oil company has its roots all the way back in 1901 when the Iranian monarchy granted a British investor named William Darcy Basically unlimited rights to explore and extract oil in the country and exchange for minor royalties to the royalty Anyway fast forward back to the 50s and the Engloid oil company had become one of the most profitable ventures across the entire British Empire and The the situation had created what nerds would describe as a national bourgeois movement in Iran in 1951 Prime Minister Muhammad Mosadek leading a coalition known as the national front attempted to reclaim Iranian economic sovereignty from the pale and squishy hands of the British His government moved to nationalize the Anglo-Iranian oil company and this act was

7:13enormously popular among the Iranian population because it represented a direct challenge to foreign control over the country's most valuable resource And then the Iranian parliament voted to nationalize oil in 1951 for Britain and its financial interests though This was an existential threat oil revenues from Iran were a major pillar of British post-war economic recovery Allowing a country on the periphery to successfully nationalize its resources would also set a precedent that other colonized or semi-colonized nations might follow In other words good heavens the colonies are conspiring Uh Now around this time the Iranian Communist Party known as the Tudet Party initially treated Mosadek with skepticism from a strict class perspective Mosadek represented the national bourgeoisie rather than the working class But the political situation on the ground forced a strategic reassessment let's say and as the confrontation with foreign powers intensified and the monarchy moved to undermine the nationalist government

8:14The Tudet Party eventually provided much of the grassroots street mobilization that sustained the nationalization movement And of course, this is where we get the common expression the enemy of my enemy may not be my friend, but at least he's not British So there you go The confrontation culminated in Operation Ajax in 1953 the CIA and my six orchestrated a coup to remove Mosadek and restore the authority of the Shah Muhammad Reza Palavi This was your bread and butter imperialist intervention the purpose as always and regardless of how the West tried to sell it It was not democracy or a stability But to ensure that Iranian oil remained accessible to Western capital and that Iran did not drift onto an Independent development path or God forbid into the Soviet sphere of influence I had to make sure that the nose to GDP ratio increases Because then the fuck I was carrying holy shit. He was packing I was packing. I wonder whether there is direct correlation between no size and coxize because there is doctor holy shit

9:17Conversely Oh my god Anyway, after the coup the Shah ruled as a classic Comfortor figure This is a local ruler whose political survival depended on Facilitating for an economic domination. So pick your favorite term there You know a lap dog sell out matrader all those terms were used and of course neither the Shah nor the British cared Iran's economy was reorganized around exporting raw materials primarily oil While importing finished industrial goods and weapons from western countries So the state became deeply integrated to the global capitalist system in a dependent position Then in 1963 the Shah launched what he called the white revolution This was a series of top-down reforms designed to modernize Iran and accelerate capitalist development Land reform broke up larger states and and here you might think oh land reform. Yeah, I know that one Uh, but instead of empowering peasants it produced a massive population of landless rural migrants So not yay

10:17Millions of former peasants moved into urban areas especially cities like Tehran where they formed a rapidly expanding urban proletariat and semi proletarian population And here the eagle-eyed British working class spotted something. So one guy said to another. Oh, it's a bit like Industrial Revolutionary neat bit like what they done to us right and as buddy said back to him Yeah, but those are all new types they're browning it so it don't really matter Yeah, and thus the British working class returned to their beans on toast and thought no more of the subject This period also saw the creation of the Shah's secret police Savak which was trained and supported in part by foreign intelligence agencies including Israel's massage a little drumroll who could have guessed great time though really good name though like they've They're always better than us at names Savak yeah, that's really that's really cool. It's hard. Fuck you. Oh, it's so good Yeah, we only ever won with stasi like all the other ones Yeah Stasi is like oh I want to be arrested but you ain't tired

11:20Good day But yes, this uh, there's really cool Organization became notorious for repressing Marxists and trade unionists and Islamist opposition groups Um, and interestingly this era also included a strategic alliance between Iran and Israel both countries were non-Arab states aligned with western geopolitical interests in the region And under what was sometimes called the periphery doctrine they cooperated economically and militarily Iran supplied Israel with oil and we began to see more significant intelligence cooperation between the two governments But by the 1970s contradictions within Iranian society had intensified pretty dramatically The Shah's modernization project had unsurprisingly enriched just a tiny handful of elites while displacing traditional social classes and creating enormous inequality This sparked opposition movements which emerged from several distinct social groups One important force was the bizarre merchant class often described as the traditional petite bourgeoisie These merchants felt squeezed between state-led industrialization and the influx of western multinational corporations

12:22Another decisive force was the industrial working class especially oil workers And while Marxist organizations had deep roots among students and intellectuals It was the mass strikes of oil workers in 1978 that delivered the decisive blow against the monarchy When oil production stopped the state lost both revenue and political leverage At the same time millions of people living in urban shanty towns often migrants displaced by failed land reforms Formed a population known as the dispossessed this population represented a kind of de-classed social layer So they were no longer peasants But not fully integrated into the industrial working class Most of the affine is what he's referring to for those who are who have read to Kedomayan's work Yeah, I can't say that word. So I just I'll fuck it dispossessed But they became some of the most militant street supporters of revolutionary movements and and all of these forces converged During the 1979 revolution now the revolution was not a unified ideological project

13:23Right, this was a temporary united front consisting of Marxists Islamists workers students bizarre merchants The urban poor and their shared goal was the overthrow of the monarchy and the end of foreign domination predictably after the revolution the coalition fractured political power ultimately consolidated under the leadership of Iatola Khmeney and the emerging Islamic Republic So from a geopolitical perspective the revolution fundamentally transformed Iran's position in the world system Before 1979 Iran functioned as a Western proxy state and a regional enforcer of Western interests Do you have something hiking Oh good good good. You just get very aggressive when he For stories about Persians It's only it's only when I hear what's it called the diaspora once talk

14:24I love the new propaganda piece of The the the football players they didn't want to So say saying the anthem and that the wish must protect them here are like a hundred million dollars in like Australian citizenships and this is definitely not like the most cliché The picture of a sayob slash propaganda never seen in my life like holy mother of God. Sorry for yeah, oh my god It's like I hate that I don't know if it's because I am in this job that that you know I do this and I look at this all the time or if everybody else is also noticing this and I hope everybody else Else is also noticing this because it's like come on. They're not even good anymore. Yeah come on Anyway, after the revolution Iran became an independent regional power pursuing its own strategic agenda Uh, it began building networks of allied movements and militias across the region Sometimes referred to collectively as the axis of resistance And these groups function as asymmetric tools to counter the overwhelmingly

15:27conventional military dominance of the United States and its allies Uh, once Iran stopped acting as a western shondail it was immediately subjected to economic sanctions diplomatic isolation and military containment So from our perspective a Marxist perspective this shift marked Iran's transition from a Comprador dependency into a state pursuing a more autonomous Though still internally contradictory development path. So there you go. There's a little history. Beautiful. Absolutely gorgeous moving into I guess Or skipping over some history. I want to because we'll get bogged down you also rules her history a hundred times We'll get bogged down the weeds of everything subsequently. So I want to kind of focus on what Effected it on so that the situation got to where it is today, right? Israel Um, yeah exactly right I'm sure history of of the aggression by Israel and the specific and the United States to be more specific But also Israel against Iran

16:28The sanctions that have affected the Iranian economy and then subsequently the nuclear deal and what happened with that So we'll uh begin with a very very short overview I get literally two sentences because you don't need more than that The United States and Israel in more aggressive Posturing you have always tried to destabilize the Iranian government. They've done this through several ways the most common one is sabotage Military or economic or scientific sabotage stuck sent them Worm that they introduced into some of the computer systems of like research institutions particularly nuclear centers Um was one of them and the other one was the target assassinations of scientists and whatnot But the much bigger view of this is sanctions And you can't really separate Israel and in the US because they're very intertwined when it comes to pushing for sanctions Right It is American interest to composing sanctions, but there's a lot of a pack and other Israeli-funded money Uh, that goes into Basically drumming up or supporting or writing up these

17:30Sanction proposals. We'll begin with the very first one which was executive order One two one seven zero signed by president Carter at the time. I believe in 79 so this is right after the revolution where uh He immobilized or froze 12 billion dollars worth of Iranian assets now prior to 979 it on was a western client state It was a like a Compreneur state as a result of this Of course, it was natural for them to put all their assets in western banks, particularly American banks They served the United States. Why wouldn't they? The second of that kind of it goes the other way though when the government changes and they're no longer so friendly to the states Of course the Americans have full access. They know what it what assets there are What form they are and where they're kept so they can freeze them Because they're kept on American shores of course. That's kind of one of the biggest um Drives for digital organization and also for moving assets or diversifying asset Portfolios away from European and American banks because This is a what's it called a um a pattern of American foreign policy or western just American aligned foreign policy

18:35If you don't play ball then we're gonna freeze anything that you have in our bank We don't respect the free market. We don't respect, you know any of this uh Yeah, you get what I'm trying to say anyways. Yeah, that was the very first one um Shortly afterwards It on was designated as a state sponsor of terrorism And as a result of this the United States banned the export of All do use technologies now do use is such a loaded term Because do use can be like nuclear like uh like fissile material But it can also be like carbon right you can like a car or or like steel can be technically a deal do use But the vast majority of steel uses yeah, like it's a very easy way of Making it palatable to a population your domestic population wire Sanctuary this third world poor country While at the same time punishing them for trying to import anything basically But they banned the export of do use technologies and it's basically slowed down your irons industrialization and continue growth particularly in in construction sectors, but just in general

19:38Then subsequent leads were swallowed by the Iran and Libya sanctions act which targeted any firm then invested over 20 million dollars in Iranian oil 20 million dollars is chump change when it comes to oil I don't I don't know if you guys know how much a what's it called a pumping stations worth It is hundreds of millions just a single like you know the thing that you see that spins right them the meme The shit actually takes a lot of ground three four. Yeah. Yeah, it's hundreds of millions to To to invest in a foreign country to get these going So it's a 20 million is basically makes it impossible for anybody to to invest in Iran at the time also in Libya and then also subsequently The US began trying to close up any sort of loopholes around their sanctions right that could happen legally By the way, these aren't like this is not the Iranians trying to be smart right this is just like okay. Well Americans won't allow us to Pass our transactions Through American banking systems, so let's use like in a European bank or some other kind of bank to do it These are called U-turn transactions. I'll get to them in a second But yes began banning these the sort of U-turn transaction which bands or cuts off Iran from the global financial like nerve system

20:46You could say it forces it on to Into very deep unequal exchange bartering basically where they have to sell their oil for very cheap way under its actual market value Just so that they can have some sort of trade like I have to incentivize somebody for to to training and this case It can only be in kind may we'll send you this much oil and you send us this much grain or whatever it is right They did the same thing with Iraq by the way with the with the food for oil program which is disgusting But that's a discussion for another day U-turn transactions specifically it's a legal loophole that allows Iranian banks to move money through the global financial system using dollars But as long as that transaction turned around basically within a non-Iranian and non-US bank meaning a German or an Algerian or a Russian bank or whatever else Now if with these transactions being banned, but this basically means that the the United States would limit Or sanction banks that would facilitate these The these transactions so basically it means like if you trade within on you're gonna get punished

21:46This is the same thing they do with Cuba by the way Subsequently another series of sanctions came in now or like up to 2011 This is like the secondary sanctions basically where it's not like primary core economic Lamentations that they try to set they're trying to basically just close all the valves on it on The first of which is is intended to basically punish any nation that trade within on And that was with the swift disconnection which began in 2012 This expelled formally expelled all the Iranian banks from the swift system And made legal international trade basically impossible Now right for us in the current like emergence of the multiple world That's not that big of a deal because now there's like three or four or maybe five other systems that you can use And the biggest one is the the Chinese one the SIPS system But the Russians have one the Iranians have developed their own. I believe the Indians also have one But if you're to go back 15 years Fuck it even 10 years you just had swift you look outside of swift there's fucking nothing right So this within 2012 this was a death the death sentence basically this was followed by the comprehensive Iran sanctions accountability and divestment act

22:53So the Americans are four BDS but not not against the one entity where it matters anyways So this was basically targeting the entire energy value chain specifically regarding oil It sanctioned any firm selling refined petroleum to Iran now. Why does this matter? Iran has massive crude reserves crude oil reserves But it's refining capacity is much lower than the amount of oil that it has The reason is because is because of colonial underdevelopment first and subsequently these previous sanctions that prevent it on from developing the industrial capacity in base to increase their refining The capacity for them to refine their own oil is something that the Chinese are trying to help them with currently But again, this is still like 2012 If you can't get refined petroleum then you can't Move along your crude oil your unrefined crude right as a result of this you basically is a starvation tactic This is basically you you won't be able to trade at all and the one thing that allows you to trade your oil Which is having a bit of refined oil to to kind of like mix with your current. It's more complex

23:55I'm not going to get into the details of how fucking the oil exports work But basically it means you can't export oil. That's the point of that section Subsequently there was another one section one two four five of the what's it called The earlier the comprehensive Iran sanctions act which was considered to be like the nuclear option of destroying Iranian economic health And that was against the central bank of Iran and it basically forced foreign banks to choose Either you trade with Iran or you trade with the United States right if you have any ongoing transactions with the Iranian central bank, which is what the the Iranian state would use Then you cannot trade with any American bank period right and this basically means that nobody effectively will even want to Like if you wanted to I mean maybe you don't know this JT or or you go you haven't tried to do it probably If you want to order let's say a carpet from Iran or if you want to get I don't know some

24:55Like handwork or some shit like this right Some artwork whatever the fuck from Iran you legally cannot do it because no bank will process that transaction because it will eventually hit An Iranian bank or the central bank of Iran and then immediately that means that the entity that processed it like your local fucking downtown bank Service will then be immediately sanctioned by the American government And they won't be able to like it's to that level. So that's why you see this like You cannot order anything from Iran the way that you can for example and so success for Syria for for Sudan And a bunch of other countries DPRK and you know What's it called Iraq was on the list and a bunch of other Cuba as well some of these countries are no longer on the list But it's funny enough if you look at the The terms and service of any software that you Use it says that you like on on like your honor you say you agree that this Service that you're using or software you're using does not have any connections not being used in or for

25:56The fact that these countries and so Syria Libya Iraq it on DPRK Cuba Sudan the so on support