Tariffs and trade disputes: the economic impact

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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President Trump’s 90-day pause on the imposition of tariffs was meant to come to an end on 8 July, but this has now been extended to 1 August. So, what is the latest with regard to the tariff dispute and how does it impact inflation, recession risk and interest rate policy in the US? And what is the impact on both financial markets and other economies?

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Julius Baer’s Chief Economist, talks to Bernadette Anderko about his current thinking and why the impact of tariffs has still not fed through to the key data that the US Federal Reserve is monitoring when it comes to making monetary policy decisions. They discuss the implications of the tariff dispute on financial markets as well as looking at its potential impact on the trajectory of the US dollar. They also examine the impact on other regions and reflect on what this means for investors going forwards.

• (00:31) - Introduction
• (00:58) - The impact of trade disputes & tariffs
• (04:47) - Tariffs’ July 9th rollover impact
• (06:35) - Likelihood of US recession?
• (08:04) - Impact on US monetary policy
• (11:44) - Will Trump be satisfied with 3.5% Fed Funds rate?
• (12:38) - Impact of a ‘shadow’ Fed chair
• (14:18) - Where the US dollar goes from here
• (18:14) - A look at Europe
• (21:31) - The China situation
• (24:53) - Summary

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