Talarico’s Texas Surge Should Terrify Republicans

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1:00Hey, everybody. It's Tim Miller from the Bullwork. Subscribe to the feed. We finally get some momentum. We'll get up to two million. You know, there are these crazy mega YouTube set of two million. And so help us spread the good news. I was on with Katie Turr earlier today and we were discussing this disconnect between Trump and the voters. A lot of the voters that voted for him in 24 are the matter of the economy and affordability and how to touch his and Katie and I kind of regaled each other with thinking back to 2016 and the way the Trump bubbled himself and how he's kind of gotten more and more out of touch over the last decade. And with this crazy story that we discussed a little bit about how Trump wants to use the money that has superbacks of raised or on ads about how great his accomplishments are instead of running ads to help Republicans in the midterm. So God willing that happens. We analyze that a bit. And then we get into kind of how the Democrats are doing. You know, some toots and boots on that front, if you will. And one thing I'm going to mention is the Texas center race.

2:01And since I've got off the air, we have a new poll out. What kind of we have a series of three polls. Somebody's pulling the Texas House races. If you look at the Tallarico number in some of these House districts, it paints a pretty good picture for him as far as like to abilities concerned. See, let's look at these districts. It's three districts that are all going to be very important in the House races you have. And they all are very heavily Latino districts. You have Texas 15, which is Bobby Polito's district. I've interviewed Bobby on here, huge fan of his, his, Tahanam music singer. Really good for the district. The plus him winning. So the district but Republicans held. Then we've had a Kweyar. It was like the one Hispanic moderate, Democratic who'd held on him winning. And then you have Gonzalez and Flores and Texas 34 with Gonzalez to Democrat up by three. So you have the Democrats in the House race winning in all those places.

3:02If you combined all three of those districts together and then you looked at the Senate number, Tallarico is winning by eight in those three districts over Ken Paxton. Same districts in 2024. The same poll had crews up by nine over, Kamala, and he ends up winning by nine. So that's a 17 point swing from this poll two years ago to now. And then you had Trump beating Kamala in those districts by numbers ranging from 10 to 15 and then you have Tallarico winning by single digits. So again, huge, huge swing, particularly with Hispanic Latino voters down there in Texas. And if you look at each of the districts themselves, just really quick. 15, Tallarico's plus eight, crews on by nine, in Texas 28, Tallarico's plus 10, crews won just barely by less than a percent. And then in 34, Tallarico's up 11, crews on by two. So it's a 13 point swing, a 10 point swing, and a 17 point swing respectively.

4:05That's enough to win. That's a path to win, to be obvious about it. And Tallarico has a good message. He's benefiting from Trump's race stepping, which we're about to talk about on the economy. He's benefiting from just the heinous treatment of immigrants to this country, particularly Latino immigrants. And I think that's that is causing a backlash in that community that Trump had been gaining with in 2024. And I think it's a look. Tallarico's going to have to work and they're going to throw the book at him to try to make him into the woke communists, Sharia law, whatever. They're going to do everything long way to go to November, the kind of in these key places, these inflection points. Tallarico's showing the growth that you need. He's got to do it also in the more suburban districts, continuing to run up the numbers there.

5:05Got work to do with black voters in Texas. Got to make sure the turnout there is high. Jasmine Caraguth is not helping with that to her embarrassment really. And then you know, got to make sure that taxes outrun it up the numbers. And Bashar Assad numbers out there in rural Texas. So a lot of work to do. I like in these key districts, Tallarico's on Path to Victory. And Katie asked me about this on the show. And stick around, we talk about a little bit more. Subscribe to the feed, please. This message is sponsored by Upwork. One thing I've learned from working in media is that you can't do everything yourself. I've tried. It sucks. I failed. There's a point where you have to recognize what you're good at and then find people who are experts at things that you're not good at. That's where Upwork comes in. Upwork gives you fast access to highly skilled freelance professionals who can help fill critical skill gaps, who can launch projects faster and who can give your team the expertise that it needs without committing to another full hire. You can find specialists for everything from marketing and design to software development

6:09and implementation and business operations. You can browse profiles, review past work and hire people with proven track records. Also you can feel confident that you're bringing in the right person onto the project. And if you need the best of the best, well, business plus gives you access to the top 1% of talent on Upwork. Its AI power chart listing can deliver a curated list of top freelancers matched to your goals in under six hours. So you're not spending days scrolling through profiles. And folks, I've been there hiring is so difficult. I've scrolled through profiles and it is a pain. So visit Upwork.com right now and post your job free. That is Upwork.com to connect with top talent, ready to help your business grow. That's UPWORK.com Upwork.com. So many friends and so many of you have been really, really generous. I mean, a couple of you are sitting here saying, sir, with $25 million be appropriate. I said, I'll take it. And April, according to the Wall Street Journal, he hosted his biggest campaign donors.

7:12He even got special tours of the Oval Office. According to the journal, one of his donors who has given even a gift of the president, solid gold, stood up and called him the greatest president in my lifetime. I suppose they feel like their investments have paid off their getting what they paid for. A different story, though, for Trump supporters who invested, in many cases, a lot of their money, their own personal money, along with their votes in Donald Trump. You saw him install a new helipad on the White House, his building, a new ballroom in the White House. But he won't help with gas prices or help with us to live. That's just ridiculous. It's ridiculous. You have all this money and you don't want to support. Maybe I don't know what I'm trying to say. It's just ridiculous. How does it make you feel that President Trump got $2 billion richer in his first year of the second term? I think I have both of them. I think it's good. Could have split it with me. If you don't, but that's what happens, I guess, the risk of richer than the poor get

8:15poor. David Graham with the Atlantic says it is because the president has lost touch with the people, all but abandoning the rally circuit where he once heard directly from his supporters. Now he's insulated among billionaire buddies and supplicanades, like Natalie Harapu, who feed him a filtered version, vision of the world through rose colored gold color glasses, excuse me. That probably explains why he's waving off his plunging poll numbers and leaning into what he does best self promotion. According to Ashley Parker, also of the Atlantic, he plans to make the midterms all about him, replete with millions of dollars worth of TV ads, blanketing the airways. There's a little bit of a silver lining here. I don't get to offer silver lining that much when you invite me on Katie. I'm going to do one. There's among all of the layers of corruption of this White House. One thing I think has gotten less attention is that the administration really is shaking down corporations, individuals to donate to these super PACs, this MAGA Inc. and say,

9:18okay, hey, if you're looking for a meeting or a regulation cut, one great way to do it is to go to a Trump-aligned lobbyist in DC and then they'll point you to the fundraiser for MAGA Inc. There's always a little bit of this in Washington, but they've really supercharged it. As a result, I've been talking to Democratic strategists and some of these key red states in particular, Senate states, the Iowa, Ohio's of the world. They're nervous about the amount of money Trump has. These are still red states. We've got good candidates, Josh Turek or Sherrod Brown, and Tyler Rico. We're going to use all that money to really come in here and drive up our negatives, too. They've got to be thrilled to hear that Trump is demanding that this money goes on ads to show him talking about how great things are, which is probably going to be in that negative if anything. As far as TV ads are concerned with regards to whether that helps the Republican candidates and the states actually incident Iowa or John Houston and Ohio.

10:22I think this is a little bit of corruption. God, what do they call it in the Jerry-Mander, the dummy-mander? They thought that they were going to Jerry-Mander to help Republicans, but ended up backfiring. This might be a little bit of that, but in the fundraising side of things. Tim, from those voters who were talking to Alex Tabbitt, I mean, Tabbitt raises how much money Donald Trump has made, and the answer is not, oh, good, great. That means this country is doing well. The answer is I'm not seeing that cash. He's not sharing it with me. I think that what Basil just laid out there, I think that was true about Trump in 2016 in 2020 and in 2024, honestly. I do think this worked for him. People thought that, oh, he knows that I make money. That's going to help me make money. I think that helped him win in 2016, and then there were no way to bad inflation in 2024. It helped him win in 2024. So I think that has worked for him. The problem is people aren't feeling that now. They're not feeling like things are getting better for them. You see this in every poll, consumer confidence is low as it's been. Feelings about the economy are low. It's been, feelings about how he's handled it are low.

11:22And so then all of a sudden, his stick really falls flat. And I've been surprised myself, to be honest, in focus groups, ones that we do at the boat work and some other ones that I've seen from campaigns where just like kind of swing voters, kind of Biden to Trump voters, a lot of them do bring up on their own. Like, hey, I'm struggling. And he seems like he cares about this ballroom or the reflecting pool that enter one example of one of Trump's things. That does feel like it's broken through this time in a way that Trump's always been like this. But it didn't trickle down to voters. I don't think as clearly as it has in the last year. Well, it's interesting because a lot of, when you talk to voters, there's a fascinating tourism about the economy that voters react emotionally about it often. But they will say, I hate the economy until the day the president that they like takes office. And then they'll suddenly flip and they'll say, oh, I think the economy is doing great. So there is an emotional aspect to voters, perceptions of how well they're doing, how

12:27well the country is doing. We just put up on the screen Donald Trump's approval numbers. He's under water on every issue right now on prices and inflation, on healthcare, on porn, policy, government funding, social programs, trade, education, elections, immigration, deportation, crime, border, everything, everything he's under water. And what is striking to me is especially the top line numbers on the economic stuff actually, because that proves that Donald Trump's ability to manipulate people's emotions is no longer working. And it's not just what they're feeling right now in terms of costs. When they look to the future, they are not optimistic that things are going to get better for them. Why Tim don't you think he's gone out and rallied? Why is he lost his ability? Why is he refusing to go out and get in touch with the very people that he was so good at understanding the first time, the second time, and the third time around?

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14:33If you're like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium. It's destroying, athlete, creator, and YouTube Maxer. YouTube Premium enhances how I use YouTube with awesome features like offline downloads, so I can download my favorite training videos before I hit the gym. So no Wi-Fi doesn't turn leg day into loading day. Plus, I get ad free videos, background play, and so much more. YouTube Premium is like YouTube got some extra gains. Try YouTube Premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. Hey, what's up guys? It's Haley Bailey. Okay, I need to tell you about something. I just got YouTube Premium. It's got tons of awesome features like offline downloads so I can download my favorite videos before I travel and watch them whenever I don't have Wi-Fi. Because we all know airplane Wi-Fi is the worst. I get ad free, I get background play, and there's like a ton more in there. You should try it. If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium. So try YouTube Premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. Try eligibility varies. Terms apply. Anytime. That's a mouthful. Well, he's really old.

15:34And so I do think that's part of it. You know, traveling at that age is tiring. 80. Yeah, it's tough. I think on top of that, I don't know if this is as true now. Like we'll see they're going to do the RNC midterm thing, which I think probably heard some more than helps them outside of maybe Texas and engaging some voters there to turn out since they're not really thrilled about the person at the top of their ticket in Texas and their Republican side. But I think some of this was in the first year. I, to your point about him just being actually out of touch, I think he really just liked the fact that all the richest people in the world were coming up to suck up to him. And I think that he liked playing golf with Bryson De Shembo. And I think that he liked, you know, that Elon was hanging out and didn't have him sleep overs in the White House. Like I think that he was just having fun hanging out with the rich and famous and going to his golf clubs. And he didn't want him. I think I think that there was, I think it was as simple as that in the first year. And maybe that's starting to change a little bit. As a mother, what is it like living with these economic conditions?

16:38It's hard. It makes me feel like I'm a horrible mother sometimes because I'm stressing about what I'm going to do or do I have enough money to put gas in or do I need to buy eggs and milk for my child or do I need to not go to work every day to make that money because gas prices are so expensive. And mind you, it could be my fault. I do work in clearing, but still that's a 45 minute drive. We're putting 80 bucks in every three days, tops maybe. It's just it's hard to feel good when when it everything's just going downhill. I feel like it's supposed to be going up. And sometimes yes, it's up and then all of a sudden it just goes down and then we're always told, you know, this is going to change or I'm going to make this better. But where's it at? We're not seeing it at all. Do you think Democrats are reaching out effectively or are they battling their own demons? I think it's a mixed bag. I think the one thing that Democrats are doing good is they're talking about affordability.

17:42I think some Democrats think that like saying the word affordability is like an amulet that allows them to kind of check the box. And I think that they're going to have to go a little bit further than that. You know, and I think that there's some who are doing that really well. Like we've mentioned to Al Rico. I think even the center left Democrats who learn a lot from Zoran, like he doesn't talk about affordability, like it's academic exercise. Like if you'd listen to speeches and his content, he's usually giving like tangible examples of cab drivers or allow trucks like people who are struggling and what he's going to help them. I think the Democrats could do a little bit better on that and they could probably do the hair less infighting about random streamers as well. So, you know, there's a little room for drugs, but they're doing pretty good. Tell me about the hair less infighting about random streamers. What does that mean? I just, you know, I mean the Michigan center race, I do all say, but it's his job right now to go win over, Alyssa Slock in one in 2024, the center, more of a centrist, Democratic center. She won Kamal Harris lost in the same ballot.

18:43Say, let's go convince those voters and he's got also convinced the kind of Bernie to Trump voters. These are the types of people that he needs to win over to get over the hump. And I think that there's a lot of fighting back and forth between him and like this Michigan Congresswoman Hillary Shulton and others, you know, about whether he's too close to Mason Pike or whether he's not distancing himself enough and they're fighting back and forth. And, you know, he was on Jesse Waters this week, kind of like arguing about, you know, trans youth gender reassignment surgery. I'm not sure how helpful that is. So, you know, there can be a little bit of a more of an eye on the ball and some of these races. What happens if Texas turns for Tallerika, right? The latest polling out of Texas, we weren't able to get to it yesterday because of Dolly Parton's death. Shows Tallerika Tim ahead of Paxton by like four points. I think it's really winnable. You know, look, people talk about that battle race. You know, I go, you know, this is always the white whale Democrats can't win it.

19:44That one never was leading a single poll against Ted Cruz. He just had a lot of hype and better. We're in a really great race. He lost by three points and if some viewers will struggle to believe this, but Ted Cruz is a popularity at that time with Republican voters in Texas was pretty high. You know, he just lost the primary to Trump, but he finished in second place in that primary. This is a totally different situation. At Trump's way more unpopular, Ken Paxton is way more unpopular than Ted Cruz and he's impeached by his own party. And Tallerika is running a very strong race. I think it's very winnable, but it's going to be tough, like Ashley said. And like these are the places like to win back the Senate, they got to win in either Texas, Iowa, Alaska, you know, these places that are pretty darn red. Kansas, they got a good candidate in Kansas, Kansas, Reverend, a pastor out of Hamilton. I'd be like, those are places they got to win. And but I think Texas, I think Texas is doable. I don't, I don't think that's out out of pocket at all. Until now, the data your AI depends on has been trapped behind ever increasing cloud fees.

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