Supply Chain Disruption

0:00Supply chain disruption. That's what I'm gonna talk about today, guys. Hopefully you're a regular listener. This is not your first episode. If so, go back and listen to some older ones to establish Shimbonga fetus. I am not an economist, and I am certainly not a profit. I don't see the future. I don't pretend to see the future. I was thinking about this the other day, talking to my wife. And I said, you know what's a dumb saying for the foreseeable future? What a stupid saying. And I've probably said it. Nobody can see the future. One second from now is not the foreseeable future. Nobody can see the future except for God and his appointed prophets that he gives a foresight to. I'm not God, certainly, and I'm not a profit. I don't pretend to be one. This is not a prophecy, right? I'm just looking around. So take that for what is worth it. I'm not an economist, and I'm not an expert in geopolitics.

1:03And I am not the sky's fallen guy. I'm not the guy that's like, you know, you tripped and stubbed your toe. The Illuminati did it. The blue helmets are coming to throw you in FEMA camps. I'm not that dude. If you guys listen for like a time, you know that. But that being said, I would be very pleasantly surprised if there were not serious apply chain disruptions in the future. I'd be great if I was, this is way off base. I would love for everything, including gasoline and housing prices and the cost of eggs to go down 50% to go down by half tomorrow. I would love that. I would love for a BRCA 22 to go back to, you know, $10. I would love that. I don't think that's going to happen. Again, I don't see the future. Maybe that could happen in some weird scenario. But I don't, I don't think so.

2:03Here's some things to throw out there to chew on. There's been a great reduction in the GCC, the Gulf Coast countries, export of oil. And there's a war going on over there that makes sense. But even if today or tomorrow we say, congratulations, we've won the wars over, we're pulling out declare victory, mission accomplished, whatever we just leave. Well, the Iranians control the straits of removed. So the control goes in and out, which I don't know why they wouldn't put a big fat tariff on a bunch of the ships going in and out. So the price is going to go up, not only that, but between our bombings and their bombings and missiles and all kinds of stuff, I believe a large chunk of the manufacturing in different countries of the Gulf Coast countries has gone down. And even if we stop today, it's likely going to take years to come back, years.

3:06So even if we stop, if you know, if all the missiles stop today, right now, as I'm recording this, which would, you know, it is what it is. I don't know when that's going to happen, but even if it's stopped right now, mid-sentence, that stuff's not going to come back online overnight. It's going to take time. Now, I think we've felt it last year because we're a net exporter of petroleum. But that, we now have a global economy. So generally, China imports cheap energy, petroleum and things like that, from the GCC and other places, and they produce cheap goods, and we buy those cheap goods, which helps keep our costs to living down, and the cost of goods down, the cost of goods. Well, if China, at the least severe impact, has to pay a lot more for oil, or for, just think of it as energy, as energy to keep the lights on and the factory is going, then the cost of goods has to go up,

4:06unless there's some weird thing I don't know about. The cost of goods is going to have to go up. So there's that. If they can't get that, they're going to prioritize taking care of themselves, and exporting widgets is probably going to come second. That's what they probably should do as a country, right? So there's that. Also, we don't think about this a lot, because you think, oh, farms, you throw a seed in the ground, and the bread comes off the bread tree, and you just pluck it, and that's like, I don't know what people think, but modern monocrop agriculture is heavily dependent on petrochemical fertilizers. Petro, meaning it comes from oil. I guess where a lot of that oil comes from. Yeah, so supply and demand. That price is going to go up, so the cost of food. Again, I would love to be wrong. I would love for the price of food to drop drastically. That'd be fantastic. Again, I don't think that's going to happen, and I'd love to be wrong. So petroleum doesn't just affect the price at the pump.

5:09It affects the price of food. Also, the food has to be shipped, so it defects it twice. It affects it on the cost of fertilizers or grow it, and it affects it on the cost of shipping around, because I doubt that, you know, whatever food you got, you got from your neighbor next door. A lot of that comes from overseas or from across the country. That has to be shipped, train, plane, automobile. Those all run on petroleum, right? So you got to think about that. So although stuff is not cheap right now, I don't think that it's going to get any cheaper in the near future, and I am not telling you to go in debt, or you shall love your neighbor as yourself. And the Bible also says, the borrower is a slave to the lender. I don't want to be a slave to debt. I don't want you to be a slave to debt. So this is not me telling you to go out and run up credit card debt or anything else. I'm not telling you to do that. I don't have a credit card. I've never had a credit card. Except for property, I don't have any debt,

6:10and I wish I could have figured out a way to, just buy a house and cash, but I don't want you to be in debt. So don't do that, do not do that. But if you have any disposable income and you think that you could use some more food, some more ammunition, some more, whatever it is, not just frivolous stuff, like if you've got four ARs, I'm not telling you to go buy a fifth AR. I'm telling you, if you don't have a decent stock pile of ammo, not so you can hoard it and sit on it and feel good about yourself, so you can train and practice and shoot this year's competition season like and stay good because I'm less concerned about the 10,000 rounds you have in your bunker. I'm more concerned about how good you are with the rounds in your magazine. Otherwise, you're just gonna be a dead dude with a bunch of rounds somewhere that you can't take with you. So be good with the ammo that you have in your gun. And that means practice and practice and training requires ammo. So just a thought there, also food. I don't think any of us in living memory unless you've been to war,

7:11I've been in some weird scenario, have really seen starvation. But starvation is a real thing and it's miserable. And if you want any kind of motivation on that, I recommend a book survival theory too. It deals with studies of human starvation in modern times, but food. So there's just something to think about. There's that old radish store which you eat and eat while you store. Now maybe be a good time to get extra of what you're gonna eat. An easy way to do that is look for buy one, get one sales or 50% off. If it's something you're gonna eat, get two and put one in storage. That's an easy sell. If you're with somebody that's not really on board for prepping, but you know, put, I don't know, I'm just gonna pick something, I don't generally eat, but then more beef stew. There's a sale on it. Get two cans and put one can in the pantry or whatever. If you're gonna eat it anyway, maybe buy a case of it if you've got the money. Peanut butter is one of my favorite things to store because I mean peanut butter has got all the things,

8:12a growing survivalist needs. It's got fat, it's got protein. That's really all you need, fat and protein. Carbs are a luxury that you probably don't need or shouldn't have in modern, you know. Anyway, I'm gonna get off of that. But protein, fat, peanut butter is an easy thing to store. And who doesn't love peanut butter? You might be listening to the wrong podcast if you don't like peanut butter, but assuming you don't have like a peanut butter allergy or something peanut butter or something good, like instead of buying one jar, buy two or three or 10 and put those away. So that's a good thing to store, but just expect to or brace for supply chain disruptions. I think I would love to be wrong. I would love for the price of everything to drop in half. That'd be fantastic. Hopefully that happens. I don't really like talking about this because I don't wanna be the sky is falling, dude, but I'd also feel bad if I didn't talk about it. So something to think about, something to chew on,

9:14pontificate. Anyway, with that, no tactical tip because I feel like that episode was kind of a tactical tip, but tactical verse of the day or verses, the borrower is a slave to the lender and you shall love your neighbor as yourself. My thoughts. Love is not just some flowery emotion you feel when you're in love with a girl or something. Love is deeper than that. Love is not always a feel good thing. Sometimes loving somebody properly is telling someone something that's hard that they don't wanna hear. But being honest with them and helping them, even if they don't like it, that's real love. That's one form of real love. And I think that's a lot deeper than the hallmark version of love or the Disney version of love it, like actual love. Even if somebody, even if it makes somebody not like you, because it's not about you, it's about them. Being honest with them, being truthful with them, telling them something, even if they don't wanna hear it, not because you gloat in their suffering,

10:16but because you're trying to help them. And even they may not like it, they may reject it, they may not like you for it. But sometimes that's the right thing to do. And sometimes that is the most loving thing that you can do. Thanks for listening and have a blessed day.