Speculation Rising, Breadth Weakening: A Tactical Rebalance

This week’s episode covers:

• U.S.–EU trade deal impact and the new 15% tariff baseline
• Margin debt surges—5th fastest rise since 1998 (source: Deutsche Bank)
• Fed and ECB hold steady, but tone remains cautious
• Breadth weakening beneath the surface despite equity highs
• Trimming gold, watching silver/platinum and volatility signals
• July portfolio performance + positioning adjustments
• What we’re watching: CTA trends, EMFX momentum, and central bank shifts

Referenced Sources:

Deutsche Bank Macro Strategy Notes

SentimenTrader Momentum/Breadth Indicators

MRB Partners EM Currency Research

Dantes Outlook internal trend models & analytics

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