Sell Off Over Soon?📉Crypto Market Update

Is the sell-off over soon? Today we'll break it down. A lot happening out there in the market.

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down below to get started. Let's get into a few points I want to lead off with and of course one

of the lead off points will be Tom Lee and where he thinks this market is right now. Take a look.

Would you buy the market today? Yeah. I think we're 90 to 95% through the sell-off. What gives you

that confidence? Well I think some of its positioning and Goldman had a really nice piece about

hedge fund positioning. That's right. Their note was basically like look we've observed a lot of

hedge funds selling which looked like capitulation activity to us so maybe that's run its course so now

you can perhaps build that base back up. Yeah so I think that's one component. The second is retail

sentiments very negative because the AI bowls less bears is minus 20. That's a tactical sign.

The VIX closed above 30 and now I think earning season that's going to show earnings probably

going to hold up better. And then the last piece there is I think we're just going to have to

realize that stocks tend to bottom early in a war times situation. So we've looked at every war

since 1900. Stocks will bottom within the first 10% of that war. So if this is a you know two-year

war it's we're going to bottom pretty early into that process. So if you are on Tom Lee's side

let me know if you guys are. Are you on the back half of this bear market? Let me know in the comments

down below. If you want to follow Jim Kramer he had a few points. Three ways the stock market will

flip the US or flip if the US and the Iranian war ends. I want to highlight a couple of them. We

saw what could happen if you give piece a chance. So if we see any kind of piece deal obviously

that's going to be a big thing. You also noted that we're starting to see tinier treasuries

making a major reversal risk also from higher energy costs lower odds of the Federal Reserve

cutting in 2026 that would be another factor. Other things he kind of hit it on right here we

didn't know going into war would would actually affect our farmers. That's another issue because

we're starting to see other commodities, fertilizers, etc. that are going to affect food supply.

These kind of things are the concern I have. So it's raising a lot of concerns also around

deal making. So beyond what's happening in Wall Street if you look at the lagging effects that

this war may have on supply chain and also some of the key supply chain areas such as food supplies,

LNG, other things that could flow into this even if you look at where we are ground beef hitting

an all time high. These things are happening right now. Now remember all of this happens then you

start to see consumer sentiment impact then consumer reaction. So we are still a ways out before

we start to see retail reaction which is the bigger area that I'm more concerned with right now

what Tom Lee was talking about earlier was the lagging earnings. All those are coming from

previous quarters which were pretty good for most Fortune 500. So that in itself still

isn't early phase and it could be one of those things where maybe this is nearing the bottom

and of course everything hinges on what Trump is going to do. I want to go to another clip real quick

because this is where Tom Lee is trying to set up an actual strategy. Take a look.

Ugly again there's like no it doesn't feel like there's an ability for a stock like that

in a group that went straight up into the right to find any stability there. Mega caps they haven't

looked great at all and the only thing I can find people saying good about them as well well

look at their multiples now. They've compressed a lot in the pullback. Yeah we're in the

fire ready aim phase right where any little bad news is going to cause people to de-risk but as you

know that's why the positioning is something to watch because at some point people have gotten

too neutral and then less bad things can happen in the market as a V-shaped recovery.

So less bad things to neutral then you compile that along with what's happening tonight with

President Trump and this is really going to boil down to the next 12 hours at 9 p.m. Eastern

will have Trump delivering a televised speech on Iran. A lot of this is I think is going to be

him just boasting on what they've accomplished and all that. Now does he get into a ceasefire or

an ending of the war? That would be number one. Number two would be hey we're going to continue

and we're going to go into a ground evasion that would absolutely be stifling for markets

and then number three I think which is my prediction it won't be much important I think he'll

stump a little bit in the sense of just saying we did all this we are building we're continuing to

show this but you know the Iranians are bad and we're dealing with this as we go I think it's

going to boil down to that it's going to kick the can down the road we'll see if that changes.

I hope that we get an announcement of some sort of peace deal that would be huge.

Now the Iranian Foreign Minister they are actually talking about a peace deal not a ceasefire

an actual peace deal ending the war and I think that is a key thing if we start to see those

kind of talks come out then dare I say you know that is one of the things that Kramer kind of

hit on but I think everybody kind of knows that that's an obvious now there's a lot of the things

though that play into this and that of course is where we're dealing with market I won't call it

yeah I'm going to call it manipulation because we've seen this manufactured FOMO a lot of

profiteering that has occurred you guys have seen this with these radical moves on both oil some

of the defense stocks even in Bitcoin and in crypto in general we've already seen a lot of that

one other thing that is a major issue that resides within this deal is the straight off our moves

and the traffic this has got to return to normal before we exit and of course Trump may be trying

to exit without this I don't know if you guys have been watching what he's doing on truth social

but he's actually saying hey the EU and other nation states should get it active and involved in

trying to get into diplomatic arrangements I don't know if that's going to be good enough of

you know from a lens coming out of the US if we were to escape or exit this war before the

straight-of-war moves is open that still puts a lot of pressure on the sentiment in the markets

in general and I want to go to a clip real quick because can he leave without actually opening

the straight this is where they break it down which spoke to the reporting for the Wall Street

Journal of maybe that end date hostilities in Iran without reoccurring the straight what do you

do with this well maybe you just focus on what's going on in the region and frankly every analyst

and investor who's come on the show today has said look at what is feasible and it is infeasible

for the US to pull out for this war to be over without the straight-of-war moves being a passage

of free flow for trade and that's I think with a lot of people just keep focusing on all right so

one point that they hit on there at first fall I will say this none of us are war analysts I think

history is going to go and look at this in a very interesting lens in the future one of the lenses

it will look at is the amount of damage and baggage that it put on the Trump administration

part of that of course shows up in Trump's sentiment numbers and the numbers keep trending down

from the very top that was the doge fall off then we've just continued to see liberation day

the justice department government shutdowns were in a good the Iranian war all of this has been

just down and and lower lows you know for sentiment now what does this mean can can the market

recover without Trump's administration sentiment recovering I think it could now will have a

long-term effect I think it really depends on how Trump tries to repair that going into the midterms

if in fact that they can do that at all and one of the things that plays into this is where the

market is starting to showcase shift talks about it right here gold is up another hundred today

gold stocks already adding five and that was after a seven percent surge yesterday it's not

because the war is always because investors are realizing regardless of what Trump is doing

in terms of the war progress it's accelerating the move out of dollars now do you think that is a

case why haven't we seen Bitcoin in these five and seven percent moves is that still a speculative

asset and gold is the alternative flight to safety let me know what you guys think as gold remember

hit fifty four hundred it has retail sound significantly and is now starting to edge back up

towards the five k what could that be well if you look at it right here futures now surge above

forty eight hundred this is up seven twenty cents March twenty third low and that was the the tip

of the drop that we saw that now adding three trillion in market that's the entire crypto market

and that's just since Wednesday all right so maybe there is something here if you look at the chart

right here you can kind of see the movement right there from forty three and if you go in the dip

that all almost went all the way down to four thousand dollars announced of course that was for

short period of time after some I think market funny business but right there one two three four

days up right now in the daily chart trading at forty seven eighty four at time or recording other

things you got to hit on of course is the fact that Iran is exacting a toll and they're asking for

payment in you on and this is done of course on the transition of ships going through the

strait this is for all I think all tankers and this will play a bigger role I think in maybe

the negotiations this might be a negotiation ploy by the Iranians to try to get into a better

deal with coming to an agreement with the Trump administration I want to go to a clip real quick

because Andre jick breaks it down on is gold done on this rally or not take a look

and in order to get control you need control over two things which is oil and gold for example

Iran has the choke point it controls the straight of her moves of which 20% of the world's oil

blows through every day and Iran is using that leverage to make an offer to the world

they're offers this hey guys the straight is actually open you can pay for your oil in Chinese

you on and then we'll let your ships through safely and of course China has the payment rails

so the actual transaction looks something like this you sell your dollars you buy your gold

you sell that gold to China in exchange for you on you take that you want to Iran

and then you buy the oil and your ship gets home safely all right so China now gets to sort of

be right in the middle of this transaction it gets to decide the exchange rate between gold

and oil which means China's deciding what the dollar is worth relative to everything else

and Iran has created a toll booth for the whole world and the toll booth has to be paid in

you on which is paid in gold now there is a problem though the oil market makes about 4.1 trillion

dollars worth of oil every year it's a lot and the entire gold market makes only about 485

billion which means the oil market is roughly nine times bigger than gold the demand shock to gold

could be unlike anything the market's ever seen because the gold market is just too small to absorb

oil without the price moving in a very big way all right so there you have it and this of course

plays out if in fact the current situation handles for a year in other words if we continue to see

the demand of Chinese you on being the transitory asset that's trying to enact you purchasing oil

that would happen for a year that would put continued pressure on the dollar and of course

put more assets into gold and I think this is going to be one that we'll see if this plays out

that way or if something is negotiated because this could be a big negotiating ploy by Iran

to get the administration in the right place all right so the real question here is what does this

do to assets when you look at securities but also risk one of the things that you have to

compare to is what if the securities market continues to trend down gold goes up what happens to

risk well here's Warren Buffett begging that down well let's talk about that the market has come

down substantially you've got both the Dow and the Nasdaq in correction territory it's the worst

performance on a quarterly basis for stocks in about four years do things look cheaper to you

no three times since I've taken over for sure it's one down more than 50 percent I mean if you

look at the markets of all the worst probably was the 2007 eight period although it was that one

Monday one yet 21 percent in a day I mean uh this is nothing I mean it uh this is nothing to make

you get excited and think there's huge valuation their five or six percent cheaper that doesn't

we are in it to make five or six percent the point that I think Warren's getting at is that we

are in a position where we could see volatility still yet you look at the front end of the show

it's Tom Lee kind of the new innovation of investors saying no we're we're nearing the bottom

you look at guys have been around almost a hundred years you know since the 1929 crashes we've

seen he says he's seen that before the real question is is does all of this play into gold

how the AI play comes into this and you look at risk assets all of that is really centered around

what's happening right now in the macro market and all boils down to a meeting tonight at nine

o'clock so we're gonna cover that and more so stick around for that

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