Rick Wilson 2

0:00The sun shining, birds are singing and all feels right in the world. Until the season changes and suddenly you lose your motivation to get out of bed. In fact, one in five people experience some form of depression no matter the season or time of year. At the American Psychiatric Association Foundation, our vision is to build a mentally healthy nation for all because we want you to live your best life and be your best you all year round. Please visit mentallyhealthynation.org to learn more. Your task will not be an easy one. Your enemy is well trained, well equipped and battle ready. There is not a liberal America, any conservative America. There is the United States of America. And look out. Hey folks, the elephant in the room this week is that the fun part of this war is over. In the modern era wars have two phases.

1:04The easy part and the rest of it. War is kind of like a bear trap. Easy to walk into it. Much harder to get out of it. I don't want to say this from the very start. Being opposed to Donald Trump, attacking Iran is not being in favor of the Iranian government. They terrorized Iranian women for decades. The regime's enforcers of so-called morality. This week one of the most notorious morality police centers in Tehran was hit in a strike. In text and audio messages from inside Iran, women shared with us their relief when they heard that place is no more. I'm crying because I'm so happy to know that it doesn't exist. And I'm crying because I remember the way I was insulted and pushed around in that building.

2:04I will never forget that one of these officers took a handkerchief that had been lying on the ground and rubbed it on my face and wiped my makeup off. I'm really happy about how I'm traumatizing. Our time there was deeply traumatizing. I always thought about how I would go there and take my revenge if the government fell. I'm experiencing so many conflicting emotions at this time. Fatime Musadek says state security held her there twice. Hearing the news brought back a nightmare. She's tried for years to leave behind in Iran. I was in the little cell. I have a friend. She was in the next room. And we tried to become with the sound of crying each other. She shouted me cry louder. I want to hear you.

3:05Sorry. Fatime, a woman's rights activist and mother was locked up in that compound twice the second time for 16 days of interrogations accused of working with foreign states. She says she was threatened with physical and sexual abuse that many detainees face. The moment when you heard that it was hit, how did you feel? Too complicated. I'm not happy. I don't like war, but at the same time. And I think, oh, there is no place like that for my pupil for me to torch. For the regime's victims. Seeing the walls that once caged them, now crumble points a complicated release of emotions. They are monsters. They are brutality and personified.

4:07They have funded evil and destruction and death around the world. And there were a lot of ways you could have gone at the Iranian regime. A lot. A lot. But the way Donald Trump has done it has been without a plan, without an actual reason, without a framework of what you want to see at the end of the day. It's every violation of the Powell doctrine that you can imagine. The Powell doctrine. The Powell was the chief of the Joint Chiefs and was a national security adviser and a very bright general. And Powell believed based on the Vietnam experience that if the United States goes to war, it has to have a clear military objective. Down the road, that's what I want to accomplish. I want to put the number of troops in that can take care of that problem.

5:09I want to have popular support and I want to have an exit strategy. I want to go in, I want to accomplish it, and I want to get out. That is what he said is the military's role. It's not there to build schools. No, it's a very important point. George H. W. bought into that completely. And that was the, in a sense, the beauty of the Kuwait operation. We went in with vastly more troops than we needed because Powell wanted to overwhelm the enemy and he did. It was a 100-hour war. George H. W. then had before him the option of going up to Baghdad and taking care of the bad guy. And people like Scowcroft said to Mr. President, if you go up there, I can tell you right now from the military point of view we can do that. That's not hard. But once we get there, what do we do?

6:10Do we become the government? Who are the good guys we deal with? We couldn't tell you. And Bush wisely said, not going. Okay. Right now, that Powell doctrine is, which you were alluding to, is something that exists in the far out corners of the Washington strategic mind. You know, a lot of us don't want to talk about the fact that as we get older, just naturally our bodies start to feel the change of producing with testosterone. I'm 62 years old. I will tell you, in the last few years, I've lost a lot of weight. I'm a lot healthier than I was. But I still wasn't feeling that same amount of recovery when I work out. And some of that drive that you feel is a younger guy. One day you're crushing it. And the next day, it's like everything feels twice as hard. Everything feels like they hate twice as long. About 1% a year after you're 30, is what the drop off number is. So when we talk to the guys at Marsman, I was like,

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9:16and the Nazis or the bad guys. He lost that less than somewhere. But those things framed Donald Trump's mental understanding of the military. You can go back in Kurt Anderson from spy magazine the other day. Tweeted out something they wrote about Trump in 1987, where Trump says, I understand the missiles. I know missiles. You could learn all there is to know about missiles. And I understand. So he looks at this and says, I'm going to flip a switch. And the magnificent men and women and technology of the U.S. military will perform a magic act. And before we begin, I think I will say a few words about what's going on with respect to our operation in the country of Iran. The United States military, together with the wonderful Israeli partners continues to totally demolish the enemy forehead of schedule. And it levels that people have never seen before, actually.

10:16We're destroying more of Iran's missiles and drone capability. Every single hour knocking them out like nobody thought was possible. As soon as they set off a missile within four minutes, the launcher gets hit. They don't know what's happening. But we have the greatest military anywhere in the world. Their Navy is gone. 24 ships in three days. That's a lot of ships. Their anti-aircraft weapons are gone. So they have no air force. They have no air defense. All of their airplanes are gone. Their communications are gone. Missiles are gone, launches are gone. About 60% and 64% respectively. Other than that, they're doing quite well. I said, what's left? But they're tough. And they want to fight. And they're calling.

11:16They're saying, how do we make a deal? I said, you're being a little bit late. And we want to fight now more than they do. You know what? Those men and the women and the technology are magnificent. They are pureless in the world. There's zero peer competition for the United States military anywhere in the world. No nation, including China, by the way. Including Russia, by the way. If we decide we're going to go and ruin your fucking day, it's going to be ruined. It's easy for us. We can reach out over thousands and hundreds of miles and deliver a decision to put the missile through the left window or the right window. To the front window of the car or the back window of the car. Our intelligence services, again, have no competition in the world. They know where the bad guys are. They don't have a gift to them. We're now in day six. For six days of this war.

12:17Have gone swimmingly. A couple of small things. Some drones are getting through. The Kuwaiti's accidentally shut down accidentally. Three mudhands, strike eagles. U.S. Central Command says three fighter jets were shot down by friendly fire from Kuwaiti forces. Sen. Tom says all six crew members aboard the jets ejected. We're safely recovered and are in stable condition. Now, CNN, geo-located video that appears to be an F-15 falling from the sky. The pilot parachuting out. There's also a video that appears to show a pilot safe on the ground after ejecting. Now, the aircraft were F-15 strike eagle fighter jets. Sen. Tom says Kuwaiti air defenses mistakenly shot them down during active combat that included attacks from Iranian aircraft, ballistic missiles, and drones. The cause of the incident under investigation. Got to ride in the back of an F-15 one time. Not a mudhands, a D-model.

13:18It was phenomenal. Anyway, a long story. Back to my investment youth. It's been going pretty well. We're bouncing the rubble around Tehran. We've got total air dominance. Danny Davis, good morning. Thank you as always for joining us with your expertise here. Let's talk through some of the updates that we got from the Secretary of Defense on what he says has happened to the Iranian capabilities on the ground. He first started really by talking about uncontested air space, saying that the U.S. had complete control of the skies over Iran, also discussing the fact that their ability to shoot back their shots fired from the area down 86% 23% in just the last 24 hours as well as sinking about half of the Navy. What do you make of those statistics and the success that that tells you about this operation? Well, it definitely says that there is just a substantial and incredible amount of firepower raining down from the United States and Israel on to Iran.

14:21That was obviously expected and the fact that they have gone through their air defense. If all that is accurate and they've literally basically obliterated it, that's going to make life a lot worse for the Iranian side. One of the concerns, though, and one of the claims prior to the conflict starting that the Iranian side may say, okay, you see where our air defense systems are. And that's obviously we have our satellite capability. We could know where those were and go after them. But apparently quite a number of them, possibly even more than were out, have been in bunkers hidden away. And then once we may think we have air clearance, then those things can be brought back out. And when you think you have a passive area, all of a sudden, here comes some air defense capability with these S 300 S 400s, perhaps it could come in. Whether that happens remains to be seen, but that is something that I'll be watching for. The other thing that really stood out to me about this, you can talk all day long about a lot of firepower. But what I never heard was what is the conflict termination objectives?

15:21How will you know when this is successful? When you say we're winning, what does that mean? Because you can blow up all kinds of things. We've always known that was in our capability. But how do you, in the war, do you destroy the regime? How do you measure that? And if you don't destroy them and you just keep bombing, I mean at what point do you say we're literally just bombing every day towards no objective, no attainable military objectives, less boots on the ground? And that, that could be a problem going forward. We're driving B-52s downtown now over there, which is only something that happens when we basically torn their air defense system to pieces. It's been easy, as it should be for the US military. Again, they are peerless. They are bold. They are technologically equipped like no other force in the world. The Toyota Tundra and Tacoma are built to keep going, blending rugged muscle with precision engineering, all supported by Toyota's time-tested legacy of dependability.

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17:22The comedy got a JDAM through the roof. I don't care about him. I'm delighted that the head of the IGRC got whacked. These are evil people. They're evil people. But if you want to whack them, you better have a plan for what follows. You know, we went into Iraq in 03, and our goal was to debatify the country. It is not knowable if force will be used, but if it is to be used, it is not knowable how long that conflict would last. It could last, you know, six days, six weeks, I doubt six months. Paul Bremmer and the team, they were going to take out Saddam and take out the bath party, and they were going to dismantle the Iraqi government. Because it was a bunch of bad guys and they were bad guys. Saddam was a bad guy.

18:22There's no heroic Saddam narrative out there by anybody left or left right or center, right? But when we did that, what emerged? The old sectarian divisions inside of Iran, Iraq. The political chaos that followed left the country open for Iran to come in with Muhammad al-Sadr and Muki. And a lot of these other abilities that they had to generate chaos. And Iraq never recovered from that. Americans convinced themselves that Iraq was basically like the old movie joke about every Vietnamese as a red-blooded American dying to get out. We convinced ourselves that that was what Iraq wanted. It was not. They had been so oppressed by Saddam's regime for so long, they had lost the habit of democracy.

19:25And Iran was able to use their ability to cause chaos and sectarian division. And we're not digging into the Sunni Shia fight here, folks, but we've never as a country internalized the depth of it in my opinion. But we didn't plan for an outcome that was going to end up being chaos and blood and sectarian violence and terrorism. And so things like that have seemed to emerge in the Middle East when we don't have a plan. I'll cut in Iraq, ISIS. And then we have to go and kill those people. It's always a lot of killing to do when the bad guys collapse and then there are more bad guys that follow the bad guys. Okay. So we've whacked the Iranian leadership. So we whacked the council of deputies and knocked out 90 of the top moas. Inside Iran, the widespread protests after news, the Supreme Leader was killed along with more than 40 of Iran's leaders.

20:30Protesters across Tehran now shouting death to America, while others in Iran are quietly celebrating, hoping for a new future now. Here's Martha Raditz. Tonight, the Iranian regime shaken to its core, more than 40 of its leaders dead in strikes carried out with astonishing speed and exquisite intelligence. Within minutes of the opening strikes, not only was Iran's supreme leader killed, but the head of Iran's armed forces, the defense minister and seven senior military leaders, along with dozens more commanders. The strikes have prompted celebrations in the streets and in the privacy of Iranian homes. But today, tens of thousands of tearful mourners gathered in Tehran's main square, pounding their chests, waving flags, and throughout the country, many shouting death to America. This man called the attacks on the regime, shocking news that really fills one with anger, full of hatred towards Israel and America.

21:36We must avenge the blood of the leader. The Iranian foreign minister today insisting to ABC News that the deaths of military leaders will make little difference to Iran's military capabilities. We have lost some commanders, that is a fact, but another fact is that nothing has changed in our military capability. But this is exactly what happened last time. They killed some of our top commanders at the beginning of the strikes, but they were replaced very soon, and in less than 12 hours, we were able to start retaliation. Iran's retaliation was swift and brawn throughout the region, but the loss of that many leaders would leave any military deeply rattled. What's your plan for what happens now? The country is 95 million people. About a million and a half of them are involved in the security services in some capacity, the besiege, local religious groups, all these things.

22:39They're still out there, a lot of them, and it doesn't take a lot of them to remain. A lot of the guys in Iraq went from the Saudi bath Mukhabarat to the Secret Service, and rolled right into Al Qaeda in Iraq, smoothed the silk. So how many bombs are you going to drop to take out that, say, two million people that have some ancillary or direct connection to the security services in the religious police? You got a plan for that, because you don't. We look at young people in the streets of Tehran, and we think, my God, they want their freedom, and they do. You know what else? They fucking deserve it. They fucking deserve it. The people of Iran are smart. They are educated. They have lived under an oppressive system for almost 50 years, and already we hear what Trump is saying. Oh, yeah, we have some guys we know we can make a deal with.

23:40Oh, we killed a bunch of the guys we thought we can make a deal with, but where's the other guys we can make a deal with? Everyone they're talking about making a deal with is a part of the current system. Just like Venezuela, everyone they're talking about making a deal with, just like Kelsey Rodriguez in Venezuela, is a part of the system that gave you kamani. Is a part of the system that is the IGRC, the Kudz Force, the Bessiege, the secret police, guys, Donald Trump is already bored. He just wants to make a deal. He wants Jared to be able to say we're going to build the Trump Tower Tehran. He wants to say we're going to build a golf course north of the city. It's nice north of the city, by the way. This moment where the bombs are dropping and the video is spicy, and they're putting the call of duty soundtrack and endgame clips in between actual

24:45weapons deliveries from real systems. This is the fun part. This is the easy part. This is the part where it's not messy. This is the part where you don't, for the third fucking time in my lifetime, betray the Kurds because they're going to betray the Kurds. The Kurds are going to go into northern Iran. Kurdistan should be a real recognized nation, but we'll fight that out later.

25:53Our buddies, the Kurds are going to go to northern Iran and attack it, and we're going to back out because we always do. History has often been unkind to the Kurds, a cycle of repeated betrayals. The U.S.-led coalition expels Saddam Hussein's forces from Kuwait in 1991, then President H.W. Bush encouraged the Iraqi people to oust the dictator altogether. There's another way for the bloodshed to stop, and that is for the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands, to force Saddam Hussein the dictator to step aside. In response, Iraq's Kurds rose up against Saddam. But when his elite forces advanced north, the Kurds got no help, millions fled to the mountains, and many others were slaughtered trying to resist. During the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Kurds were again enthusiastic allies, assisting American and British forces in their drive to Baghdad.

26:56When ISIS swept through Iraq, Kurdish resistance was crucial in keeping the militants at bay. In Syria, the U.S. turned to the Kurds there, the YPG, as key allies, the main ground force that led the liberation of Raqqa ISIS's headquarters. But in both Iraq and Syria, the Kurds have been allies of convenience, deserted when no longer needed in the geopolitical chess board. Last year, the U.S. stood by while the Iraqi military drove the Kurds back from territory they held during the fight against ISIS. We thought that the people who were verbally telling us they were our friends and would support us, that they would have supported us, or if not, stay silent. We did it in 2002, we did it in 2007, we always leave the Kurds hanging out to dry, and it sucks. They want their freedom so bad, and they're willing to go and attack Iran for us to get it.

27:57But I promise you the Turks have other ideas about that, and so do the Iranians. Again, the elephant in the room is that this is the easy part. This is the fun part. This is the part where we are burning, by the way, it's not a billion dollars a day that we're spending right now. It's a billion dollars every three or four hours. We start counting up those tomahawks and those patriots, and everything else we're dropping, we're going to spend a hundred billion dollars by the end of next week of expenditures. And this isn't because we gave all the weapons to Ukraine, we didn't. Unfortunately, we had a very stupid and incompetent leader in this White House for four years, who gave away many of our best weapons for nothing for free to another country very far away by the name of Ukraine. The president was pointing out how that was an unwise decision, but nevertheless, don't doubt the strength in the mites of the American military. We gave them a lot of stuff that was older in the beginning. We sold Europe a lot of stuff that was older in the beginning.

29:02We never sold them tomahawk missiles. And we are using tomahawks like we would use the JDAM back in 2005. Tomahawk folks is a large sophisticated cruise missile. A JDAM is a GPS-driven smart bomb. It's very good at what it does, but it's cheapest dirt compared to a tomahawk. And it's cheapest shit compared to a patriot. We're firing off $4 million dollar patriot backgrounds to take out a $20,000-$30,000 Shahid drone. So now, the White House is saying that Congresses come together and pass a $50 billion supplemental to pay for the first three days of the war expenditure-wise of weapons systems. I can tell you one thing. The lead time to build these weapons is not days or weeks or months. It is years.

30:02We're stripping the PACOM Pacific Command armories right now of tomahawk, so they're long-range strike weapons, to send to the Persian Gulf. This is the easy part. This is the weapons porn part. You know what? Pete Hicks is out there practically erect playing the video of the submarine firing the first torpedo to stick another ship, since World War II. In the Indian Ocean, and we'll play it on screen there, an American submarine sunk an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international waters. Instead, it was sunk by a torpedo, quiet death. The first sinking of an enemy ship by a torpedo since World War II. Like in that war, back when we were still the war department, we are fighting to win. Great, okay. Although I will say that's the first U.S. sinking by a torpedo. There have been others before then since World War II, but okay, whatever.

31:06General Belgrano being the biggest, I think, during the Faulkland war in 1882. But the hard part is coming. You'll notice this week, Caroline Love, it was very careful. Not to answer the question, is there any possibility of boots on the ground? Could you tell us about the President's current thinking about ground troops, and whether they could be used, if they were to be sent into Iran, what would they be used for? Well, they're not part of the plan for this operation at this time. But I certainly will never take away military options on behalf of the President of the United States or the Commander-in-Chief, and he wisely does not do the same for himself. I know there's many leaders in the past who like to take options off of the table without having a full understanding of how things could develop. So again, it's not part of the current plan, but I'm not going to remove an option for the President. That is on the table. If there aren't already, and I would bet you gollers that don't have, there are special operations, JSOC assets in country already. If you really want to end the regime, to end the mullahs, there will be boots on the ground, and it will start small.

32:15Oh, we're going to have this special forces base in some isolated part of the country, and then it will have some force protection. Then the force protection will need logistics and transpire, then the force protection will need an airfield, and then we're going to have to build a bar, you know, a bargrum somewhere in Iran. And then we're going to start finding ourselves deeper and deeper into the mud. Now, I think Trump is too bored, and too much of a short timer to care about what that means. But that's what's going to happen. And I want to say this very carefully because a lot of people will misinterpret it deliberately or accidentally. Donald Trump and Marco Rubio gave away the game. When asked what the imminent threat from Iran was, Marco Rubio said, well, we knew Israel was going to attack. And therefore, around would attack us because Israel would attack. If we stood and waited for that attack to come first before we hit them, we would suffer

33:18much higher casualties. And so the President made the very wise decision. We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces. And we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties and perhaps even higher those killed. And then we would all be here answering questions about why we knew that and didn't act. And ask Israel not to do this because BB Netanyahu has Trump completely under his spell. I love how Trump always plays the big alpha. But there are a few people in the world, Putin, BB, Kim Jong-un, who make him sump like a little bitch, and I promise you, BB Netanyahu has no incentive to watch America lead this region. He has no incentive at all. He wants this to roll on and on and on and on.

34:20The reason BB has to have this roll on and on and on is that if he's not pre-minister anymore, he goes to jail. If he's not pre-minister anymore, then if Iran isn't the monstrous threat that it always was, that was the answer to BB's role in Israel was always, he's the guy who will do the things no one else will do. He's the guy who will stand up to Iran. He's the guy who will bomb Iran. He's the guy who will have Mossad penetrate every aspect of Iranian government. And they did. But if the demonstrators gone, why do you need the black knight to defend you against the monster? So BB has no incentive at all for this to end peacefully or quietly or in democracy. And he will tell Trump over and over again, you got to stay. You got to do more. You got to get in deeper. You got to dig the whole little further.

35:21You can't stop now. Keep going, keep going, keep going, keep going. So the easy parts over, it's not going to get better, it's not going to get any more fun. While the Iranian military, maybe a collection of smoking twisted metal right now from the most part, there's still an awful lot of drones out there, a lot of truck-bounded missiles out there, a lot of stuff buried in mountain sides we don't know about, hidden in warehouses, we don't know about. And they're going to keep popping them into the Gulf and they're going to keep hitting normal tankers. They're going to keep hitting our allies. They're going to keep hitting our friends. They're going to keep going and going and going and going. The easy part is over. Now it gets expensive and dirty and messy and costly in terms of blood and treasure and America's honor. Because at some point, Pete Hicks says, war-fotterly, Thalini man is going to start ratcheting down

36:21the chain. I've seen this before too and you have too. One day is we're going after the top Iranian leadership, the Mullahs, the bad guys, the secret police, the IGRC, the Kudz force. We're getting the baddest of the bad, the new guys, the scientists who are building the nuclear program. You'll run out of those guys. And then you say, well, we're going to go after the deputy governor of the BAM province. Okay. They're going to ratchet down that chain. We're going to throw a million dollar smart weapon through the window of the assistant police chief of Isfahan because we've identified him as a member of the government structure. And it will go down further and further and we will spend more and more. And if you assess one further aspect of this about why the fun part is over, why the

37:21easy part is over, why the shooting part, the war porn part is over, it's this. You gave China every excuse in the world to hit Taiwan or to take Vietnam or to take Korea or to take Japan. We've given them every excuse in the world because what you said is, we don't have a real reason for doing this because vibes, we had a, we, we, we, Trump thought he felt there was something coming. Kind of could say, oh, we thought Taiwan was going to attack us. Oh, we heard Taiwan was going to build nukes because they, they've got, they're very technology sophisticated. They're, they're going to build nukes. So we have to strike first. We're being led by morons in the two a war that is not going to end quietly or smooth lately. And by the way, one more thing about the fun part being over, there's not been a single bit of polling information that's come out so far.

38:24This is people feel many differently about the F's team files. And that was part of this distraction, that was part of this thing. I don't think they started the war completely for that reason, but it was sure wasn't, it sure wasn't a factor that never got talked about. They talked about it, they thought about it. They know it was an issue, but it's still out there for Americans, sorry, Donald, the elephant in the room this week is at the fun part is over.