Prop Points | March 5, 2026

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1:01This is prop point on V-SIM, East Force Betty Network. Welcome into a Thursday edition of prop points here on V-SIM, the sports betting network, Nick Whalen, Jeff Erickson, back with you here from rotawire.com. And Jeff, we have a loaded show coming your way over the next hour, more big news breaking in the National Football League. We'll talk about the fallout from a big trade between the Chicago Bears and the Buffalo Bills, DJ Boer, on his way to the AFC East. We'll give you an update on the Arnold Palmer. That's underway down in Florida. Still some of the big names yet to tee off in round one. Play a little game of rape that prop, one of our favorite games here on prop points, taking a look at a big card in the NBA. Love our friend Alex Baruta, a little more NBA talk, giving out his favorite props for the night. And then continue our tour of the MLB futures market, honing in on the A-L Central, finish out the show as always with our best bets of the night.

2:08Make sure, by the way, if you're not watching us live, if you want to catch it later, you can find prop points in podcast form, wherever you get your podcast, Apple Spotify, just search Vecin or search prop points, wherever you get your pods, you could find all of our daily shows there. You can also find them available 24 seven. If you are a Vecin Pro subscriber, that is over on the Vecin Watch app. All right, Jeff, big news that just broke this morning in the NFL, the Buffalo Bills sending DJ or excuse me acquiring DJ Moore from the Chicago Bears. Initially, a little bit of confusion as far as what the compensation would be, Ian Rappeport, Adam Schefter suggesting it would be mid-round compensation, heading to Chicago turns out, Chicago Bears getting a second rounder in return, and they will send a fifth rounder along with DJ Moore to Buffalo. Yeah, absolutely. I think this is good compensation for the Bears. In addition to them, freeing up a lot of cap space, you know, I think that's this is one of the big considerations from the bear side of things. Knowing that they have to go out and replace center drew Dolman, they need that work chest a little bit more. Maybe they go out and get Tyler and Linda bomb there, but what this does, the Bills, let's talk about the merits of DJ Moore himself, makes the Bills, this is their best receiver now.

3:21You look at that wide receiver room, it was widely rumored that they were going to be going out and getting out going after Mike Evans or AJ Brown. Instead, they turn and get DJ Moore, makes Cleal Shakira probably more comfortable in the number two spot. Ken Coleman may become a persona non grotto officially and not just spiritually, so we'll see what happens with them in the rest of the room. They still have some cap issues to get around though. This is actually puts a lot of pressure on the Bills to kind of get their cap right and able to do any other moves they need to do, including getting going out and getting a pass rusher. Yeah, I think more holes than you would like for a team like Buffalo that is squarely, you know, in a contention window, but I think you could argue that their number one need was to go out and get a reliable pass catcher. I think AJ Brown Jeff was probably on the top of that list, but everything we've heard out of Philly is that one they don't want to trade AJ Brown in the only way they would do that at this juncture. Would be if a team is willing to pay an exorbitant cost, right? The reporting on this has been a first and a second round pick.

4:21I think they know they're asking for the moon. Look, and maybe there's a desperate team out there that might be willing to put that on the table. Buffalo would have been one of those teams, right? I think the New England Patriots are still very much in that mix, but unless things get uglier, unless AJ Brown really tries to force his way out of Philly. I think the Eagles are comfortable with what has still been an ultimately an uncomfortable situation, but it's working for them, right? You know, we feel like week to week. We're just going through this song and dance of all right, our Jalen hurts and AJ Brown on the same page. And the numbers always end up looking better than you would think, you know, it's still going to get your thousand yards, your seven or eight touchdowns out of AJ Brown. The Eagles are still going to be favored to win that division. So it's not a perfect marriage, but I think a team is going to have to go in and pry AJ Brown away from the Philadelphia Eagles. If we see him move this off season. Now, you know, we could talk about the compensation for DJ or DJ Moore in this deal, Jeff, but the bills are also taken on significant salary, right? They're taking on almost 25,000 in 2026. And there is a 15 and a half million dollar guarantee in the current contract for DJ Moore for the year 2027.

5:25Now that 15 and a half becomes guaranteed 10 days from now. So barring a renegotiation. I mean, this is a substantial commitment beyond this season for Buffalo. Absolutely. Absolutely. And it's also kind of shapes, which way they go in the draft, but you're right. This is, this is really impactful. I think this is, they had to do something. This is a sign of that. You know, I kind of think that if you're, if you're, you know, in the previous coaching resume, like, why couldn't you have done this for me? You know, that's the thing that's kind of frustrating. I think if you're looking about that. But you have the bills fans are probably happy to get this at least now. There is considerable pressure to win this year for Buffalo for sure. You know, I really interested to see what else they do this off season. Fantasy wise, Luther Burton for the Bears, Roma Dunesay for the Bears. Got to bump these guys up a little bit too. I think you do in theory, Jeff. But if you look at some of the early ADP average draft position numbers that are out there, we have a lot of early best ball drafts, of course, going on over at sites like underdog and draft kings.

6:31They're already being pushed up the board. Right. I mean, you're looking at Luther Burton right now as a guy who's going inside the top 50. He's a wide receiver 24 on average, Roma Dunesay, not too far behind as your wide receiver 28. And, you know, a number like 24 or 28 that seems far down the board. But we're so loaded at wide receiver that when you start to look at the players who are going ahead in a lot of drafts, you know, it's tough to say, all right, I would definitively take, you know, Luther Burton over a Garrett Wilson or somebody like that as bad as the judge quarterback situation may be. So I think some of that inflation was already built in, you know, under the idea that maybe the Bears would move on from DJ more. But either way, you're right. I think you have to like both of those bears past catchers more and maybe even a slight bump for Colston, lovely. Yes, I love Colston, Lovelin hard to bump up a guy that you're already high man on. I think I'm on like two or three in my tight end ranking. So yeah, absolutely. But I know you are the OG high man on Colston, Lovelin going, you know, even going into last year's draft, you already there. I want to give you credit where credits do as far as that goes. So yeah, I think that that was huge.

7:32The other big NFL news story, obviously, you know, the talk about is the New England Patriots releasing Stefan digs after just one season. Not a massive surprise, but it's still noteworthy and it what's noteworthy is looking at that path's depth chart and realizing they're going to be in the market for another wide receiver. I think so. And, you know, the Patriots are in relatively decent shape. I think by Patriot standards, you know, a team that is famously swung and missed on so many early wide receiver picks, you know, even dating back to the billbellicic years. But I like a lot of the pieces that remain on this roster. The problem is they have a bunch of like number two, number three types, right, whether it's Keishan Boute or Kyle Williams or pop Douglas, you guys who have shown flashes, but have not shown the ability to be a consistent number one or even like high end number two type. Week to week. So yeah, absolutely. I think bringing back Stefan digs going into what will be his age 33 season with the legal trouble, never made a ton sense, you know, it's a cap saving move as well for the New England Patriots.

8:33I don't think Stefan digs was going to be the answer. I think they were always planning for this, but New England absolutely is a team. I think that could dip their toes into the water early on the wide receiver position in the NFL draft. And look, if we do see AJ Brown moved at some point, there's a reason the Patriots are the non Eagles favorites to be that landing spot. Yeah, absolutely. And here's the thing is like looking at what draft capital to have, you know, they've been last couple of years, they've had early draft picks, they've had cap room. They're operating in a little bit of a different world, except the fact that they still have Drake May under that Ricky quarterback, the rookie first, the rookie contract there. So that allows them some flexibility. But that first round pick is no longer worth nearly as much a pick 31. So we'll see what they can pull off as far as it goes like what receiver will be available in the draft, or they're going to have to package that to go get a veteran. So it's a different world in terms of team building for the past this all season. Give you a quick update on the Arnold Palmer underway down at Bay Hill, Daniel Berger with a monster first round. He's in the clubhouse at 63. So nine under for Daniel Berger. He is easily your solo leader right now by four strokes, Johnny Vegas in the clubhouse at five under Cam Young, also at five under with a couple holes to play.

9:53Another relatively slow start, at least by Scottie Schaeffler standards for him, Jeff, he's just one under now through 12 Berger currently your betting favorites to win the tournament at plus five 20 Schaeffler just behind at plus five 60. Before we talk a little NBA to to round out our first segment here, you still using your buddies got instinct as a betting strategy. Come on, you deserve better than that. Rotawire gives you the real tools, the pros use. We're talking rankings, projections, breaking news updates, data that never sleeps, whether you're setting fantasy lineups, making picks, placing bets, rotawires award winning insights, give you a real edge, get started today over at rotawire.com and make sure you use the promo code V sent B S I N, put that in at rotawire 15% off anything we offer. Nick, last night we saw OK, see in the next play what was looked to be like almost a playoff level sort of game, really interesting stuff as far as that goes. Yeah, absolutely, and I love that we have reached the portion of the season where yes, we have a lot of tanking teams, we have a lot of tanking on tanking games, but it feels like two, three times a week we're getting these playoff atmospheres.

10:59This was absolutely one of them last night at MSG fantastic game to watch came down to the wire. You know, kind of an odd game really on both sides, neither team played well offensively, both of these have been, you know, five two of the five best defenses in the NBA this season, but the New York next man, despite having jail in Brunson and Josh Hart. In and out of this game, we're able to rally back at the end, look like OKC was going to put the game on ice with about two minutes left in a couple big stops, a couple big buckets for the New York Knicks had two opportunities on the final possession where we saw something you almost never see from OKC Jeff late in the game where SGA and case on wall is blew a switch. Dale in Brunson gets a pretty good look from the corner ball bounces out long on the rebound and OGN and OB had a wide open look at the top of the key ended up falling just short, but goes down as a really nice win for OKC not a crushing loss necessarily for the New York Knicks obviously wanted to win this game at home, but playing on the second night of a back to back I think the Nick still feel pretty good about the effort they put in, especially defensively. Yeah, really stepped up late in that game, they made a huge comeback in that one that was it was fun to watch Alex Russo and Isaiah Hartenstein both left with injuries in the fourth quarter, they seem to be day today, they're also dealing with Jalen Williams's health SGA just came back from an injury, like you said earlier on SXM so you're listening to this podcast because you want an edge, but what if I told you you're only halfway there, you've got the mindset now it's time to get the toolkit to match here's the thing.

12:26Pro better spend thousands on data and tools, but what they don't want you to know is that you can get the same edge for a fraction of the cost with vson pro with vson pro you'll get access to expert picks public betting data prop projections powerful tools analytics and more just tap the link in the description and see why thousands of bettors are already using vson pro to cash more bets. Tundra and Tacoma are built to keep going blending rugged muscle with precision engineering all supported by Toyota's time tested legacy of dependability step into a tundra and feel the unyielding capability with the available I force max engine tundra puts out impressive power torque and towing performance and the roomy high tech cabin keeps you connected on the go or take a look at Tacoma made for drivers who push past the path agile tough and relentless with available features like crawl control, portable JBL speaker, a path.

13:26Power lift gates so gear goes in fast and the adventure keeps moving the Tacoma and tundra are engineered to endure season after season mile after mile so drive one home today visit Toyota dot com or stop by your local Toyota dealer to find out more Toyota let's go places. Freight rail does more than move goods it drives America's economy every dollar invested generates another $2.50 in economic activity spurring growth from farms to factories and here's the best part freight railroads fund their own infrastructure saving taxpayers billions while powering the economy forward from reducing highway congestion to delivering goods safely and efficiently freight rail keeps America moving learn more at AAR dot org slash America's engine. Welcome back to prop points Jeff Erickson here with Nick Whalen before we play a little game of rate that prop we got a little bit of news.

14:35Shams Charnia is tweeted out that Jason Tatum from the Boston Celtics not only will he play the season but could make his debut on Friday against the Dallas Mavericks less than 10 months after surgery for that rupture to kill his tendon. Officially listed as questionable for tomorrow's game against Dallas. It's the first time he's been listed as anything other than out Nick you've been pointing to this as Tatum's return date. You know talking about this all week long you've been talking about Friday as possible return date. Yeah for for those of us you know deep in the Jason Tatum reading between the lines streets over the last couple of months. This has been the game that's been circled you know there have been people who have been like watchdogging the ticket prices for the Boston Celtics they're like huh why is there a random game on a Friday in March against a bad Mavericks team that might not have Cooper flag. Why are the tickets like three times more expensive for this game well I think we have our answer. It's not a lock that Jason Tatum is out there but this is a big deal that he is even on the injury report they've just listed him as out there's been no confusion to date but the fact that he's bumped up to questionable I think is huge.

15:39Of course there's been the Jason Tatum return PR tour going on if you are watching the NBC game sixers spurs earlier this week we had another like mini documentary on Jason Tatum's return they did that during the all star game as well so we've been moving in this direction for a while. Boston right now Jeff is your odds on favorites to win the Eastern conference at plus to 30 caps three to one pistons plus 380 nicks sitting at four to one so I think just having this confirmation that yes for sure Jason Tatum will be back at some point this season even if it's not tomorrow already starting to move markets a little bit you know I think we could question what version of Jason Tatum we're getting how long is he going to need to fully ramp up. But the biggest question for me down the stretch for Boston is what is Jason Tatum's role like is he coming back and expecting to have a 30% usage rate like you did last season because we have seen a different version of Jalen Brown this season with no Tatum. Yeah absolutely near MVP level production to the point where LeBron James suggested that Jalen Brown should be a better part of that bigger part of that MVP discussion for sure yeah and that Sunday night broadcast by the way yeah that they were really pumping the Celtics tires and that one there.

16:48I mean hey it was a great game by the Celts and it's a great story and still yeah it was almost a little too much praise worthy in that aspect there. All right what else was praise worthy is the hard work done by producer extraordinaire Michael Michael who had just pulled out all these great props for rate that prop Michael Cohen's gone out and he's given us these props we get the rate on a scale one to five one equals bad five equals fantastic amazing the best prop ever had. Fives are very hard to earn we'll see if we can earn one of those today here raptors at Timberwolves our first prop Anthony Edwards over three and a half made threes plus 109 versus the raptors Nick rate that prop. All right so good one to start off with the got nine games in the NBA tonight this should be among the most competitive. Do you need to state right away that at the Edwards is questionable right now due to a foot injury I don't think this is a real injury it's more of an injury management situation they did list him as questionable for the last game on Tuesday and ended up playing but did take that decision down to the wire so just some to be aware of here.

17:55I think we're getting a reasonable price in plus money territory for a guy that's coming off of a seven of 13 three point shooting effort against Memphis on Tuesdays averaging 3.9 makes per game over his last 10 is gone over this number in six of those 10 you look back at the one previous match up against Toronto earlier this season I was about a month ago on February 4. Did go just one of eight from three and what was a narrow victory for the Timberwolves but you like to see that attempts number if nothing else defensively raptors middle the pack in terms of three pointers allowed one thing I will throw out here Jeff and this there's a reason that I'm giving this only a three out of five despite this being at plus 109. He Edwards has been a much better three point shooter a much better score on the road this season then he has at home on the road he's shooting almost 43% from beyond the arc down closer to 38% at home averaging five more points per game on the road this season so keeping this one at a modest three out of five. Anthony Edwards three and a half made threes over is rated the three pistons spurs rematch from the game right after the all star break now down in San Antonio we're going to go Kate Cunningham Streets here over nine and a half assists you have to pay a minus 122 price for that Nick right that prop.

19:11Yeah I mean you're paying that price because Cade's assist prop typically sits at 10 and a half so I actually think this is reasonable given the number and like you said rematch for a couple of weeks ago when you have the spurs went into Detroit into Detroit and and one 114 to 103 so a potential revenge spot here for the pistons now in that game Kate Cunningham had maybe his least efficient scoring game of the season did get to 16 points but needed 26 shots to get there five of 26 from the field still gave you the 10 assists in 35 minutes so we went over this number and it's important to dig in on some of the shooting numbers for Detroit in that game I mean Kate himself obviously was not great but this in shot just seven of 36 from beyond the arc they were at just 38% from the field so Cunningham finish with 10 assists in that game he had 18 potential assists which is right around his recent average he typically catches those in at a higher clip we're looking at usually 11 or 12 assists per game compared to the potential assists number so I think this is a spot where I'm going to go

20:11and I would look at him to certainly have a better shooting performance but I think the pistons as a team likely shoot it better as well and those driving kick opportunities that Cade is so good at creating he's gone over this number in six of his last seven games he's averaging 11.6 assists per game in that span typically Jeff I would run from the San Antonio spurs defense not in this spot we'll give it a four out of five. Okay Cunningham over nine and a half assists rated a four other side of that game Victor when band Yamma over 11 and a half three balance minus 115 Nick read that prop. This could be another four out of five for me had 17 boards in that first Detroit matchup now he has gone under in three of his last four games but two of those were huge ball out wins over the Brooklyn nets and the Philadelphia 76ers so I think you have to take that sample with a grain of salt I think this is playable you know I wouldn't expect maybe as many rebound opportunities as he had in that first matchup because of how badly the piston shot the ball but the most encouraging takeaway.

21:11For me Jeff from that Detroit game was not necessarily the spurs winning it was Victor when Yamma playing a full complement of minutes you saw 36 minutes in that game that was his most in any game since November 14th he hasn't matched it since I think this should be another really competitive spot I think this game probably comes down to the wire I think we see the workload back up for Victor when Yamma so I'll give this one of four out of five as well. All right two consecutive fours if you're betting college hoops now is the time to get your edge right now you can get visa and pro access through May. First for just $29.99 with our hoops mania special visa and pro gives you daily best bets real time betting splits from draft Kings and circa AI powered prop tools and full access to every visa show on demand you'll also get our March mania betting guide packed with team breakdowns betting trends future strategies and picks from visa's top analysts if you're planning to bet college hoops visa and pro gives you a real edge sign up now at visa.com slash subscribe we're playing rate that prop in

22:12the a style let's move on over to warriors rockets talk a little bit about shepherd talking about points in the first quarter digging kind of deep into the bag here read shepherd four plus points in the first quarter against the warriors plus one thirty four Nick great that prop. All right so we do have to mention that the great Zach Cohen one of the the best NBA handicapers in the game the host of the hardwood handicap or spot here at visa and this is his favorite prop of the night so again make sure you check out hardwood handicapers part of the visa and podcast network look the fact that's that Cohen likes this I have to give it at least an auto for and you're getting this at plus one thirty four which I think is a really nice price now a lot of this is going to come down to injury speculation because we have three starters currently questionable for the rockets Alperin Shengu and a men Thompson and Jabari Smith shepherd has started three of the last four games due to some of those guys being out of the lineup the minutes have been way up accordingly played 31 plus minutes in all four

23:12the last four games played 42 minutes against Washington on Monday when you dig in on the number series had at least four points in the fourth quarter in four of his last five games when he starts he tends to play somewhere between nine in 10 minutes in the first when he's coming off the bench he only plays five to six minutes so this is heavily heavily going to depend on if any one of those starters are out for Houston it could be any one of them I think you know whether it's Smith or Thompson or Shengu in shepherd probably slides into the starting lineup so if we're just going to hazard a guest and say okay I think one of those three are going to be out I think read shepherd is going to see nine or 10 minutes in the first quarter I think you got to play this Jeff golden state giving up almost 30 points per game in the first quarter over its last 10 indeed indeed uh let's talk a little before we got about 30 seconds left Austin reads Austin Reeves excuse me under nine points minus one nineteen and I could pronounce when Van Yamma but I can't say Reeves come on under nine hundred and nineteen and a half points minus one nineteen right at that prop

24:14yeah this is just going to be a standard three for me Jeff I'm going to be honest that I don't have a strong lean on this it is worth noting that Reeves has gone under this number in 10 of 12 games since returning from injury you have a minute has been slightly reduced in that sample he's playing about 30 minutes per game as opposed to the usual 34 35 usage rate though has been about the same as it was early in the season when he was out there and Lebron James wasn't so you know a little bit concerning as far as how those scoring numbers are trending you didn't play in the first matchup of the season against the Denver Nuggets we don't really have much of a sample to pull from there I'll get this to three you can play it if you want it's not going to be on my card all right very good we're going to continue talking NBA when we come back Alex Baruth is going to join us to help preview tonight's nine game NBA slate this is prop points you're watching prop points on v said make these sports betting network

25:20you're going to continue diving in on a big NBA slate tonight got nine games in the association and we are now joined on the progressive guest line by our pal Alex Baruta lead NBA editor for us over at rhodowire.com you can check them out on Twitter finds a great fantasy basketball info some great threads every day over at Baruta Alex and you can hear him alongside myself on the rhodowire NBA show serious XM NBA radio weeknights at seven p.m. Eastern Alex we got a huge slate a lot to digest I know you have some props you're ready to hand out for tonight so let's start out down in Orlando where we have the magic playing host to the Dallas Mavericks might see the return of Cooper flag tonight for Dallas we will see

26:21uh but you're looking at the Orlando side here focusing in on pala bank arrow yeah bank arrow I mean he's been playing really well lately you know for the most part is he's it's been up and down you know there's some discussion about some heavy discussion about his play overall let's say but past seven games 26.9 points 6.4 assists per game for pala bank arrow I like is over 30 and a half points plus assists going up against the Dallas Mavericks Dallas is giving up the most assists per game 4th most points or the past 10 games and also you know this is expected to be a relatively fast pace matchup a pace up spot for Orlando the total in this game is 230 I think that bodes well for Paulo and his usage not to mention I mean Anthony Black and Wendell Carter both technically questionable for this game that could lead to you know bank arrow getting some more ball handling duties um and look this this Dallas team in addition to just you know bleeding points bleeding assists has given up some big games to like forward types um like they gave

27:21up 29 points for assists to pressure situa they gave up 21 points for assists and not to read not someone you you'd necessarily think is someone who's passing the ball all the time so I think this sets up pretty well for a guy like bank arrow absolutely uh let's talk a little pell's king so you got something on sedic bay and points plus assist what do you have here yeah another points plus assist prop 24 and a half is the number for a sedic bay going up against the Sacramento Kings and part of the reason I went with sedic bay is because as of right now we're not sure of tray Murphy or Zion Williamson will play I do think tray Murphy's a good option as well maybe even a better option honestly if he's cleared to play but then you also wonder is he going to play a full complement of minutes going up against the Sacramento Kings who's to say um but past 11 games for bay I mean he's been one of the best I mean you the fancy basketball wise one of the best pickups of the entire season kind of came out of nowhere people forgot about him you know as he got traded over to to New Orleans but past 11 games 22 points and three assists

28:25are his averages and the Sacramento team third most assists third most points for game to opponent over the past 10 10 games and again this is another one of those teams like they struggle against these playmaking forward types they gave up 36 and 6 to Naji Marshall um you know they gave up 36 to the the aforementioned Pollo bank arrow you know they they just don't have a lot of great defenders out there right now you know a two of himself not a good defender tomato rosins out there for like 20 minutes of game he Clifford good on steals but he's still a rookie and it's not like the right size to guard to deep bay so yeah I think I think the Pelicans are in a pretty good spot tonight Pelicans a five and a half point road favorites in Sacramento total and that one up at 234 and a half talk with our friend Alex Baruta lead NBA editor for us at Rotawire joining us on the progressive guest line Alex we have a colossal matchup in the nation's capital tonight the jazz on the road taking on the wizards uh look I think a lot of people just stay away from these

29:27tanking on tanking games you know they think rotations can be unpredictable and they certainly can uh but I know you and I you know especially in the fantasy streets you know we're always trying to identify all right who are the the safe players that we can target from some of these bad teams who seem to be switching up their rotations night to night Kyle filipowski as he the spot for you in jazz wizards he is and I picked out this prop actually before we knew Kianta George would not play in this game so there's a number may actually be higher for filipowski right now but I found I got 25 and a half points plus rebounds plus assists going up against the Washington wizards and yeah I mean he can be a little up and down when it comes to his minutes but if you want to take the last seven games which I think is a pretty representative sample of what he's been doing lately 14 points seven rebounds three assists we know he's a relatively versatile player and the wizards they give up a versatile amount of stats most rebounds second most points uh fifth most assists past 10 days to opponent's obviously they have no interest in winning basketball games even some of

30:27their best defenders they just aren't playing like you could look and say oh well you know below cooler ballies out there you only plays 20 25 minutes a game they just lost Kianta George for maybe the rest of the season Alex saw obviously not out there and you know this is a team that Chingoon has a massive now against them um despite some turnover issues but 32 13 and 2 for him Jared Alan pop for 21 and 9 on this team bancaro 37 5 and 6 recently and obviously filipowski is not the caliber of those guys but you know he's he's a versatile center you can shoot some threes you can pass the ball and I think they'll have to run the offense more through him uh in this matchup especially now that Kianta George is out another team that has no interest in winning basketball games might be the Chicago Bulls lost nine out of the last 10 they traded away at the deadline they've just kind of finally finally embraced the tank after uh embracing mediocrity for so long they're up against a Phoenix team that just got Devon Booker back still Grayson Alan still has an opportunity to make some threes in this one what do you like in this one yeah and great Grayson

31:32Alan has been coming off the bench um the past four games but uh absolutely launching from three I mean he's he is taking uh 13 three-point attempts per game over the past four hitting 3.8 at 29% and he's a much better three-point shooter than that so there's actually some opportunity for uh Grayson Alan to progress to the mean here but his his prop right now is three and a half May threes at plus money um at draft Kings I saw at least but yeah Chicago they've been a little bit better lately depending uh defending the three-point line you know only the ninth most threes given up to opponents the past 10 games that had been like top of the league um before that I know they're a little bit healthier than they were before but we still have you know some guys' question both for Chicago Josh Getty, Matas Buzelis um I just think Grayson Alan is going to continue to launch for this team I mean they've given up five they've given up uh four performances of at least five May threes over the past 30 days Brandon Ingram, Brandon Miller,

32:34Duncan Robinson, Cat all hit the Chicago team for five May threes so I think Grayson Alan is just going to be out there and continue to fire because that's what they need them to do. Very tough spot tonight for the Chicago Bulls who are big dogs on the road and like you said significant injury report right now for Chicago it doesn't look like Pat Williams or Jaylen Smith will be out there and Josh Getty, Matas Buzelis both questionable we'll see you on Getty, Buzelis you look like you tweaked his foot or his ankle earlier this week. All right Alex I'm glad we saved this one for last you're looking at Warriors Rockets uh this is such a barooth of prop. Guy Santos go into the steals market. Santos has been one of the most like underdiscos you know great stories lately he's been playing excellent basketball has been a beast in fantasy if you if you picked him up um you just can't drop the guy but yeah over one and a half steals at plus 175 going up against the Houston Rockets and this is another prop that I picked out before the Houston Rockets injury report came out in which Amin Thompson, Jabari Smith, Alper and Shengoon are all questionable but even when

33:37those guys play I mean this is this is a rocket team that is really loose with the basketball giving up the second most steals to opponents over the past 10 games they're a great team but they play kind of fast and loose offensively um and Santos very quietly has at least one steal in 14 of his past 15 games averaging 1.6 steals during this stretch. I also talked about Anthony Melton uh over his steals prop but the money wasn't as good I think it was closer to plus 125 so I wanted to get the extra value with Santos who's actually been more consistent than mountain lately on that side of the ball but yeah another situation where um over the past 30 days 10 individual players have had at least three steals against this rockets team and four have had at least four steals which is Kawaii Leonard, Josh Green, OG and Adobe and Kyle Filipowski. So again this is a rocket team that just that you can pick the ball off and passing lanes swipe down at the ball when guys are going to the rack stuff like that and uh I think Santos has a good has a good shot tonight. All right Alex we got about 45 seconds left just a tough time to talk

34:41about the people's team the Charlotte Hornets now 16 and three in their last 19 games they've won six in a row by 15 plus if you just look at their numbers since the start of the new year number one in offense number one in net rating number one in rebounding how dangerous is this Hornets team would you bet Charlotte at two to one to win the Southeast right now? Sure I mean I I think that this team look the Hornets used to be a laughing stock right and they were laughing stock earlier in the season but I think really Brandon Miller has been underrated as a player I mean this is it's easy to forget that he was projected to be like a all-star caliber two-way player because he was playing on the Hornets where and he got hurt and then people just have a tendency to forget about guys and bad teams who get hurt but Brandon Miller's availability has been massive for the Hornets con Knipples emergence Lamello Ball has been playing more let's say concentrated conservative in a good way basketball uh turning the ball over last Diabate has been a

35:42revelation in terms of you know playing the glass so I think this is a legitimately good team yeah I would not be surprised if they won the division Alex Baruta everybody check about over at rotawire.com at Baruta Alex on Twitter joining us on the progressive guest line switch on the conversation over to baseball when we come back that's future speds you can make in the AL Central right now we'll talk about it on the other side we'll watch a prop point the Toyota Tundra and Tacoma are built to keep going blending rugged muscle with precision engineering all supported by Toyota's time tested legacy of dependability step into a Tundra and feel the unyielding capability with the available iForce Max engine Tundra puts out impressive power torque and towing performance and the roomy high tech cabin keeps you connected on the go or take a look at Tacoma made for drivers who push past the path agile tough and relentless with available features like crawl control portable JBL speaker a power lift gate so gear goes

36:44in fast and the adventure keeps moving the Tacoma and Tundra are engineered to endure season after season mile after mile so drive one home today visit toyota.com or stop by your local Toyota dealer to find out more Toyota let's go places. Few things are as uplifting as the greatest moments in sports and nothing brings us together quite like team USA at the Olympic winter games from NBC Universal's iconic storytelling to the innovative technology across Xfinity and Peacock. Comcast brings the Olympic Games home to America sharing every moment with millions. When team USA steps onto the world stage we're not just watching we're cheering together. This winter we're all on the same team. Comcast proud partner of team USA. You're watching prop points on V-SIM. V-SIM sports betting network.

37:46Dicwella Jeff Erickson back with you it's the Thursday edition of prop points here on V-SIM. Jeff will round out the show head over to Major League Baseball as we preview the American League Central will give you some futures to keep an eye out for will give you some fantasy advice for all five teams in that division and we will start out at the top with the Cleveland Guardians won the division last year at that crazy comeback at the end of the season to snatch it away from the Detroit Tigers finish the year with an 88 and 74 record. Not a ton of notable additions subtractions for this Guardians team running it back for the most parts. Uh wind total though Jeff for the Guardians coming in at just 79 and a half. Yeah I think that speaks to how the general you know the lack of activity this off season the idea the notion that the Guardians way over achieved they're outscored by six runs last season. Uh as you alluded to no significant additions the most significant addition they did was either Sean Armstrong to you know depth in their bullpen or Reese Hoskins as a

38:50you know weak side platoon option at first base in D.H. It's really underwhelming. The offense as a whole looks underwhelming and the only two teams scored fewer runs in the in the American League last year. Uh they were also one of the best in run prevention last year so they do get pitching it's odd that they have the two-time uh defending manager or the year if you will so in Stephen votes so they are they this is a well run team but you're really counting on uh the youth to really kind of kick in on this team chased a lot or George Valera ultimately Travis Bazzona Bazzona Homer last night for team Australia and the World Baseball Classic. He's not the same level of prospect though is Kevin McGonagall certainly not in the same counter griffin plane uh but he is a good prospect first round draft pick a couple of years ago he hasn't dominated the minor league levels like those guys have though a little passive at the plate. This is this is really about run prevention and just just maximizing defense little things like that the best thing they have going for him is Jay Ram obviously first round pick in every draft

39:52the best third baseman out there and they signed him to a contract extension. Unfortunately they they were done here it's like Gene uh and Gene Hackman and Hoosiers my team is on the floor the team is on the field when it comes to the guardians. So we did see a little bit of action on the guardians in the visa and MLB futures draft earlier this week Steve Phillips taking Jose Ramirez to win the AL MVP and round two of that draft so a lot of MVP bats flying off the board early at that in at 15 to one or got Gail Alexander went under on the guardians wind total later in the draft like you said I mean it's it's kind of Jose Ramirez and everybody else when it comes to hitting I know you are a fan of their closer though in Cade Smith. I am he's a top five closer uh high strikeout rate uh one of the few guys that feel safe in the Immanuel Colosse trials set to go in May he's never coming back folks and you know don't don't don't don't spend a last round pick on Colosse he's not coming back certainly not coming back to the guardian so yeah it's going to be Cade Smith all the way now.

40:55The Detroit Tigers made a few more moves than the guardians especially beefing up the overall pitching staff they have the highest wind total in the division Jeff at 85 and a half minus 185 to make the postseason plus 150 if you like to miss and a plus 110 favorites to take this division. Yeah absolutely this is a team that should have won the division they just had a pretty much of an epic collapse in in the second half of the season uh and yet they still won the playoffs series against the guardians and there's a lot of optimism after they went out and they got Framber Valdez very critical season though uh for the Detroit Tigers because the Terracuba contracts it's scuba of contract situation famously way lowballed him in arbitration just an outrageous number uh so of course they lost their arbitration hearing I know they there was a lot of pressure from MLB to try to hold the line uh but they they should have offered a reasonable contract for the two-time returning side young winner there who's about to become a free agent this was not your normal arbitration situation the Tigers played it as such they're probably

41:57going to lose him to free agency next year so they there's some they're there under a lot of pressure to win this year they win out of the got Valdez it later signed Justin Burlander and that was good because they've already lost a couple key key play pitchers due to injury Reese Olsen's out for the year Troy Meldon and Darling Darling in the fantasy community is dealing with elbow tightness he's not going to be available at least for the short term he's going to be moving to the bullpen most likely because of this year they've got one of the best prospects in baseball and Kevin McGonagall we saw him Homer on Wednesday night against or on Tuesday night against the Dominican Republic uh in a warm-up to the WVC had a three-for-three in that game he's batting lead off you and I were talking with Rodoise James Anderson who's really high McGonagall thinks his chances of making the team are really good uh fun guy fun fun fun guy to watch should be a lot fun and you know we saw a lot of Tigers talk during the futures draft if you read if you've checked out Beeson's MLB betting guide you know that Adam Burke is big on the Tigers on the win total on the division odds to the the penit chances even World Series odds some interesting lines there for the

43:02Tigers some redundancy in that rotation to address those possible injuries they also sign Kenley Jansen to help close out games too yeah Adam Burke go in full Tigers stack in the futures draft to win the penit to win the central excuse me and to win the World Series at 20 to 1 also saw Tark school bullseye young come off the board in round one to gill Alexander the Kansas City Royals Jeff win total coming in at 82 and a half plus 140 to make the playoffs in the American league plus 225 for the division 16 to 1 for the penit what do we need to know about the royals yeah so they opened I think at 81 and a half maybe even 80 and a half in some shops and they were aggressively bet up they were one of the early darlings in the win total market there you get if you when it was at 81 and a half you had to bet the minus 120 to get that I think that's what our number was actually in the futures draft earlier this week but now it's up to 82 and a half uh the reason for that is they have this good young core Bobby wit uh they're getting two young

44:03players in Carter Jensen and Jack caglione who I think a lot of people are expecting good things out of Vinnie Pasquantino is coming off of a breakout season no worthy for the royals is the ballpark Kaufman Stadium no usually notoriously a tough place to hit home runs they're bringing the fences in and they're lowering them great for your young hitters on the royals maybe not necessarily great for the team though they have solid starting pitching guys like Michael walka uh Seth Lugo that have just eaten innings in the past know what Cameron had a great rookie year last year none of those guys are huge strikeout guys know those guys are huge miss back guys are even ground ball guys so there's a risk that they give up more homers this year some some concern about the pitching side of things nonetheless I still like that I was mad in the futures draft when I didn't take Mac Quattaro I took my in it my in L MVP bet maybe a round two early and Kyle Tucker could have gotten my my chosen favorite in the uh in the year category there lost on my top two options in that draft so hey again when you're doing drafts know where the scare gets our no where your

45:07targets are too that brings us to the Minnesota twins Jeff Erickson wins a little down at 72 and a half plus four twenty five to make the postseason a twin steam that shed some assets at the deadline last year you wonder if that could be the case again in twenty twenty six but ultimately a team that is built around two of the highest risk highest reward players in baseball yeah absolutely Byron Bucksdon and Royce Lewis we're talking about there on the pitching side of Ryan as tweaked his back at one point I mean now but just something to watch for they've already lost Pablo Lowe for Lopez for the season devastating blow for a team that it was kind of counting and the starting pitching to help over some of their other deficiencies in this roster this is another team that's a little bit in flux they did not sell the pull out family wanted to sell pulled the team off the mark a different brother is now running the team he's got a more hands-on approach a sell off at the trade deadline is still possible I like the under 72 and a half. All right fortunately Jeff

46:07we're going to have to shortchange the Chicago White Sox well we'll dedicate an entire hour to a White Sox preview later as we move through spring training I promise you that but White Sox win total coming in at 67 and a half we're going to get some best bets for the night and before we do that just a reminder coming up after us it's money moves with Stormy Bonnetoni and JVT Greg Hoops Peterson stop it by the show with his best plays in college hoops for tonight follow the money Mitch Moss Polly Howard starting up at four Eastern and it's Tim Murray and Matt Eumanns with you for decent pride time starting at seven all right Jeff excuse me best bet of the night I see we are going to the world baseball classic I love it yeah let's dip our toes and they see pool my bet it's a simple one the Dominican Republic WBC plus 340 over at the Draft King sportsbook look at that there for the Dominican Republic absolutely loaded to tease Soto J Rod in the outfield Vlade Marte Machado Perdomo plus Junior Caminero all infielders plus Jeremy Pena to

47:10see why his hand is there they're an underdog because of the pitching but they still have an ace in Christopher Sanchez they have great relievers I like they're getting so much plus money I know they're a poor in 2023 that but I like plus 340 for the DR to win the world baseball classic I'll leave you with a couple NBA plays for tonight look at the under 226 in bulls sons that available right now over at bet rivers and some lower numbers at some other shops on the board don't mind the bulls team total under 106 and a half as well talked about that with Alex Baruta already down two regular starters at Pat Williams and Jalen Smith I am trepidacious that we will see Josh Gidey and or Matas Pizellis out there tonight sun's been one of the best and slowest pace defensive teams in the NBA and why not let's throw the pells in cover in five and a half in Sacramento tonight that's going to wrap the Thursday edition of prop points here on Vsyn stay tuned money moves stormy and JVT coming your way next the Toyota Tundra and Tacoma are built to keep going blending rugged muscle with precision

48:25engineering all supported by Toyota's time tested legacy of dependability step into a Tundra and feel the unyielding capability with the available I force max engine Tundra puts out impressive power torque and towing performance and the roomy high tech cabin keeps you connected on the go or take a look at Tacoma made for drivers who push past the path agile tough and relentless with available features like crawl control portable JBL speaker a power lift gate so gear goes in fast and the adventure keeps moving the Tacoma and Tundra are engineered to endure season after season mile after mile so drive one home today visit toyota dot com or stop by your local Toyota dealer to find out more Toyota let's go places few things are as uplifting as the greatest moments in sports and nothing brings us together quite like team USA at the Olympic winter games from NBC Universal's iconic storytelling to the innovative technology across Xfinity and peacock Comcast brings the Olympic Games home to America sharing every moment with millions when team USA steps onto the world stage we're not just watching we're cheering

49:30together this winter we're all on the same team Comcast proud partner of team USA