Prop Points | March 31, 2026

This is prop point on Vs in these sports betting network.

Welcome into prop points here on Vs in these sports betting network, Nick Whalen, Jeff

Erickson, hanging out with you for the next hour.

We are here from rotawire.com.

A lot to get to today, Jeff.

Well, we'll talk some news on the Tiger Woods front to big night in the NBA last night,

under hanging on to beat the pistons in overtime, the San Antonio Spurs just do not lose basketball

games anymore.

It's a major playoff implications, playing implications last night as well as on tonight's

NBA slate.

So we'll take a look at a seven gamer coming our way in the association play a little game

of play at our pass it with some props to consider for tonight.

Speaking of props, we'll have the prop queen, Ariel Epstein joining us later in the show

around 130 Eastern for her best plays in Major League Baseball, and then we'll get Jeff

Erickson's take on a loaded MLB slate just a reminder.

If you miss any of our shows, if you want to relist it, you can find us and you can find

every Vs in program in podcast form, wherever you get your podcast, just search Vs in search

prop points, you will find us there.

Jeff, we got some more details in the troubling Tiger Woods situation this morning.

The arrest affidavit was released.

Tiger Woods said he was looking at his phone.

He was changing the radio station before rolling his vehicle last week.

Look, I don't have a lot to say on this.

It's a sad situation.

You know, as the details continue to roll out, unfortunately, none of this is terribly

surprising, given how the last few years have gone for Tiger Woods, but any takes from

you as we continue to get more details.

No, not really.

I mean, just that it's sad to see that he should never be driving really ever.

This is like the fourth such incident there.

So I think that, I don't know, I don't know if we'll see him in Augusta as a player.

He'll be there at the Champions dinner, but it's sad to see this here.

Happy nobody got hurt in this situation there.

That's all I'll say about that, but I mean, it's hard to really have a take on this one

here, but you know, at the same time, you know, it just, you know, it's just don't want

to see that anymore again there.

I don't know if we'll see much of him as a player anymore.

Let's let's talk NBA.

Let's talk a little bit about as a thunder in the pistons.

You talked about that game.

We got the free throw narrative with SGA again when I was talking with Alex Berruta on

the serious XM show about his MVP odds.

It's really kind of become more of a two player race.

There's a couple other, you know, people pushing for Lucas still every once in a while,

but for the most part, it's, it's SGA's if he doesn't get hurt again down the stretch

there.

You know, he's down minus 300 at DK's minus pretty which everywhere else too.

Yeah, I mean, if anything, I think the threat would still be Victor Webin Yamma for MVP, you

know, Luke Adonchitz sitting at 15 to one right now, Webin Yamma plus two 25, but, you

know, this is another signature performance for SGA who played great, you know, on Sunday

when they had that win over the New York Knicks, scored eight of his 47 last night in

over time.

He was 21 of 25 at the line, which is what you were alluding to, right?

I mean, the free throw volume is a huge part of this for SGA, but it just, it plays

into his overall efficiency, scored in the ball this season, right?

I mean, there's just not a lot of history of guards, you know, guys, his size who are

shooting 55% from the field, he's ultra efficient at the line.

The rules are what they are, you know, if SGA was breaking the rules and, you know, getting

these free throws every single night, the NBA would do something about it.

And he's not, you know, he's just, this is part of his skill set is baiting defenders

into these fouls.

We've seen this for plenty of players over the years, just about every superstar, especially

superstar guards have been accused of this.

And it's one of those things where if everybody else is doing it, you kind of got to play

the game in the NBA.

So I don't really fault SGA for that did extend his, his quote unquote lead in the MVP race

a little bit last night.

I think he was hovering around minus 250 minus 260 going into the night now minus 300

over at draft games.

But it didn't help that that Victor Wemanyama goes for 40 on his own last night 41.16 rebounds

and three blocks for him as the spurs just wall up the Chicago Bulls.

He did fall short of the over four and a half blocks plus steals.

This game got out of hand a little bit faster even than I thought it would.

But the overall point, Jeff, is that both of these scenes in the Western conference right

now just feel completely bulletproof, right?

Like, OK, he was down a couple of starters.

Yes, Detroit, you know, was without K there without Isaiah Stewart, they rested three

other starters.

That here.

And you have to give the pistons.

I think some credit for taking this game to overtime and there were opportunities certainly

for Detroit to win it in regulation.

But both OKC and San Antonio, I mean, these teams, they still feel head and shoulders

above the rest of the league to me.

Yeah, absolutely.

And Detroit was playing the only thing about OKC is they're playing a very shorthanded

Detroit team.

They're missing a number of their top players and that to have to go to OT against them

is a little concerning, I would say.

But, you know, emphasis on little other big game.

We profiled this game going into yesterday in yesterday's show, Heat and 76ers.

Miami got off the skid, big, big win against the Sixers.

Yeah, this is kind of what we talked about out of the show, right?

Where it's like, man, Miami is playing horribly over the last couple of weeks.

It would be very heat and very Sixers for Miami to come out and win this game when it feels

like, all right, Sixers got their guys back.

They're playing well.

They're coming off of two big wins.

And then they go out and lay an egg last night in Miami scored only 109 points.

They shot 42% from the field.

Joelle Beat got his, you know, finished with 26 points and seven rebounds, but just 10

of 25 from the field, a really inefficient night for him.

Tyrese Maxi, he goes for 23, 9 and 7.

They had a couple of offensive breakdowns late in this game where they had a chance to

steal it and just couldn't get it done.

But this is a huge win for the Miami Heat to try to crawl their way, you know, out of

that 910 zone in the Eastern conference.

I think they're still going to be a play in team, but they're only a game and a half

back now with Philly, three games back of the Atlanta Hawks and Atlanta went out beat

the Celtics last night.

I thought that was a quality win for Atlanta.

You look at the remaining schedule for Miami.

They put the Celtics tomorrow.

That's a big one.

They'll have Jason Tatum back for that game.

Then they go Washington, Toronto, Toronto, Washington, Atlanta to finish out.

So Miami to some degree could still control its own destiny.

You know, you got three teams ahead of you in the standings or two.

I should say with two games against Toronto.

You got two layups against the Washington Wizards, but this race, this five through 10 in

the Eastern conference.

It's going to come down to game 82.

It really will.

And it's fascinating to see how tight it is there.

Fascinating to see who like is in the plan, but then emerges through the plan too, because

I think a lot of people are talking about pointing towards that series against the pistons

and just how shorthanded and how, you know, fragile the pistons are as well.

Yeah.

No question.

And I think it'll be interesting that the three, four battle right now, which it's likely

to be the nicks and the Cavaliers in some order.

The nicks have a one game lead on Cleveland heading into tonight.

I think it'll be interesting to see, you know, does one of those teams try to position

itself for the foresee?

You know, do you want in theory that that second round matchup begins to Troy more than

you do the two C Boston?

Yeah, absolutely.

Uh, I think I would for sure, because the Boston is constructed completely different

now with Tatum back.

Right.

Right.

I don't want to play either of those teams.

I mean, again, we could we could say it's concerning for OKC that they need it over time

to beat that version of the pistons.

The other way to look at that is what an effort by Detroit, you know, to go on the road

with happier teams sitting out and take the best team in the NBA to over time.

So if Kate Cunningham is back for the pistons, maybe all this is is moot.

I think both of those are going to be really, really difficult first round matchups.

And that is something to watch, you know, both in the betting market and in the fantasy

basketball world, you know, if you were if your league goes through game 82, you know,

do we see the calves pull back a little bit and try to aim for that foreseed?

Yeah, I think that's that's an interesting point.

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So Jeff, we'll get some of your plays in major league baseball later in the show for

tonight, but we had 15 games coming our way on Monday, a lot to pick through, including

Cal Raleigh walking it off for the Mariners and the bottom of the ninth last night against

the Yankees walk off single for Raleigh Leo Rivas got on to start the inning.

Brendan Donovan moved him over to third and then Raleigh steps up with that RBI single.

Been a bit of a slow start for Cal Raleigh, Jeff.

He is just three for 17 at the plate so far, one extra base hit 11 strikeouts to three

walks. Of course, no home runs quite yet.

I will say though did start last year, Jeff to for 17 through his first five games.

He was nine for 49 at the plate in his first 13 games.

So not panicking yet on him.

Yeah, just we know that batting average is always going to be a risk.

The strikeouts are always going to be there for Cal Raleigh.

We talked about this in draft season.

He's going to regress, but regress to what?

Is he going to regress to being 210 or is it going to be a 235 to 40 hitter?

I think we went through this discussion with Kyle Schwarber in previous years.

Didn't like kind of the, you know, some of the Juju that we saw with him in the WBC,

but I'm not that panicky if I have him.

I think this is just, and it was nice to see him get that one hit.

It starts, starts to train up a little bit there.

We'll talk more about that game tonight, interesting matchup between Max Friedenlogen

Gilbert tonight.

So Jeff, you are all over the Cleveland Guardians last night on the road against the L.A.

Dodgers.

They end up winning that game outright four to two.

The best bet of the day ended up cashing.

You know, a lot of this was rooted in fading, Rocky Sasaki, who, yeah, he managed his way

through four innings.

Wasn't a disaster routing by any means, but he was out dueled by Parker Messick.

Kate Smith gave up a couple runs in the ninth.

This briefly got a little bit dicey, but overall a night where we just didn't see a whole

lot of hitting from the L.A. Dodgers.

Yeah, absolutely.

The first hit in that inning against Smith was a little bleeder too.

So it was a little unlucky as far as it goes, but yes, I was sweating that.

And I was thinking about that.

I will say this before I get too much credit for getting the money line on that one, right?

I also benched Parker Messick in a number of my fantasy leagues.

I have Messick in like six leagues, and I think I started him in maybe two of those six

because I was afraid of this matchup against the Dodgers.

So kind of goes both ways.

I was fading Sasaki, and I do like Messick.

This was a big test for him to pass though.

This means he's now in the circle of trust for future outings there.

So I'm excited about that part at least.

Five two in that series coming our way later tonight, Tanner Bibley on the hill for

Cleveland going up again, show Hey, Otada, the pitcher tonight for the L.A. Dodgers.

We'll talk more about that game.

We'll talk more about the slate as the show rolls along.

Ariel Epstein going to stop by with her best bets in about 15 minutes.

We'll have Jeff's full breakdown of the major league baseball slate to round out the

show.

We're looking at the NBA tonight.

When we come back, all the best bets in the association, what a game of play it or

pass it coming up next on prop ones.

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Welcome back to prop points.

It's time for everybody's favorite game.

It's called play or pass it.

I, Jeff Erickson will ask Nick Whalen some favorite NBA props and they'll decide whether

to play it or pass it carefully selected by our intrepid producer, Michael Cohen.

Let's get to it, Nick.

Let's jump right into it.

The association.

We got sons and magic tonight, 7 p.m.

Polo Bon Carrot, over 28 and a half points plus assists at minus 104 over a DK.

Play it or pass it.

All right.

This is a fun place to start and should be a fun NBA slate in general of our seven games.

Only one as a double digit spread, which as you know, Jeff is a major rarity at this

point in the NBA season.

So only the hornets as huge favorites in Brooklyn, where we really have, you know, true

blowout potential.

So look at that back arrow here, 28 and a half on the points plus assists.

He is coming off of maybe his worst game of the entire season on Sunday against Toronto,

just nine points on three of 14 shooting.

What we've already litigated on yesterday's show, the 31 on run by the Toronto Raptors

believed to be the biggest run ever in NBA history, at least as far back as the stats

go.

But prior to that disaster game, you had three huge games in a row.

Baycaro did 39 and seven, 36, six and five, 39, four and six.

He's basically been carrying this magic team with no Wagner with Sugs in and out of the

lineup.

Over his last 15 games, he's putting up over 25 points, just over five assists.

So right in this range with that said, though, I don't think this is an ideal matchup.

You know, the sun's defense has regressed a little bit of late.

They've been closer to league average, but they're still playing at one of the slowest

bases in the NBA.

They play a lot of these games that are decided in the low 100s.

You look at the one previous matchup, that arrow did play well, 26 points, eight assists,

played 47 minutes, however, in that game that went into overtime.

Orlando needs big arrow to have a big game here.

If they want to win, I just don't know if I could trust this team.

I think Jamal Mosley is probably on his way out, regardless of how the rest of the season

plays out.

I think he's lost this locker room.

How you bounce back from a game like they had on Sunday, big heroes also been more productive

and more efficient on the road, ironically enough this season.

So I don't hate this play by any means, but it's more in past territory for me.

Yeah, I get that.

I get that there.

It's, you know, the thing about player props is you want to feel like you have something

better than a 50, 50 call and this feels like a 50, 50 call to me.

Hornets at nets.

This is the one double digit spread on the car.

They're 17 and a half point favorite for the Hornets there.

Kind of weird, they're in the universe there were the Hornets are ever favored by that

much, but this has been a different year for the Hornets.

It's fun watching this team.

The player to pass it prop though is the spread.

So Hornets minus 17 and a half play it or pass it.

Look, I'll say right off the bat, you're never going to feel great about any number north

of 15, you know, when you creep it up into 17, 18 and a half range, that's always going

to be dicey out here, who the opponent is now these teams have not played each other

Jeff since December 1st.

So I don't think we can look back at those first two matchups, which they split Charlotte

one, one in blowout fashion, Brooklyn won the other, but Charlotte was a completely different

team at that point.

It's always Brooklyn to be fair, you know, we were they were actually playing Michael Porter

Jr.

They were fairly competitive at the beginning of the year and obviously Charlotte was

one of the worst teams in the NBA through the first couple of months.

Now it's an interesting spot for the Hornets because they have cooled off over their

last two games and kind of gotten pumped by both Philly and Boston.

They are still the second best ATS team in the NBA.

They're covering at a 60% clip on the year behind only the Phoenix Sons.

They're seven and six ATS as a road favorite.

They have covered five of their last six as a double digit favorite, including as a 17

and a half point favorite against the Kings, 18 and a half against Memphis last week.

Say what you want about the Hornets.

They do tend to clean up against the really bad teams.

That's kind of how they made their bones during this run.

I will say this though as well, Jeff.

There's also a must lose game for the Brooklyn Nets with the Kings just a half game back

right now for a bottom three record teams with the three worst records get the same odds

at the number one pick.

I think the net's probably regret accidentally beating the Kings on Sunday night.

Charlotte's going to be in the play in almost no matter what at this point, but they're

still very much alive for a seven eight seed.

So we have very, very different levels of motivation in this game.

Look, if I had to pick a side, I would probably lay the 17 and a half with the Hornets.

Still not a strong play that I would recommend.

I will say though, I like the under 100 and a half on the Nets team total.

I think that's very much in play tonight.

The Nets are the worst offense in the NBA.

They are six points per 100 worse than the next worst offense, which is the Washington Wizards.

I love the concept of the devastating win.

The the Pacers the other day against the heat blowing them out no less.

It's like, you know, sometimes it's like an oops.

Oh, we won by two sort of situation where you're playing another bad team.

But when you beat a team that's in the playoffs, especially it's it's hitting.

He is there. So I kind of love that concept.

They're talking about that.

Let's talk a little con can apple in that game.

He's been a three point magician all season long set the rookie record early in the season.

Here are the prop is three and a half made threes at plus one 13 at draft Kings.

Play it or pass it.

Yeah, so given the price here at plus money, I think I will play this one.

I know the Opt AI projections over at vson.com.

Do you see this?

As perhaps a slight underspot.

I mean, it really is one of those close to 50 50 calls.

But I think there is reasonable value here.

You know, Kiddiple hasn't really played that well by his standards over the last five games.

And yet he's still shooting 38% from three.

I mean, that's that's basically the floor that we're talking about with him right now.

He's coming off a one of six three point shooting game against Boston the other night.

He was three of 10 against Philly before that.

You know, it's an interesting matchup here because the nets for as bad as they are.

They are number one in the NBA in terms of limiting opponent three point attempts.

They're only allowing 33 pointers per game over the last 10.

But Charlotte leads the NBA by far over the last 10 games at over 45 attempts as the team.

So I think it could be easy to say how the nets will just take away the three ball.

And Charlotte's not going to let that happen.

Kiddiple is going to get his attempts.

You did go over this number in one of the two previous games against the Brooklyn Nets at plus money.

I'll play this one.

All right, very good.

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Let's talk a little nix and rockets here.

A lot of dialogue we've had about the rockets lately there.

We're going to talk though about the nix.

We're going to talk specifically about Josh Hart and his assist prop tonight.

It's set at four and a half.

It's plus one oh nine for the over overhead draft games.

Player pass it.

So I like the price here plus money.

Opt AI likes this as an overspot projected for about 5.2 assists is Josh Hart tonight.

Maybe this is famous last words, Jeff.

But I'm going to go against the AI on this one.

This is more of a pass for me.

Josh Hart's gone under this number and four straight games.

Despite playing 35 minutes per game in that span, you know, the rocket's defense.

It's falling off a little bit, but still top 10 in terms of limiting opponent to assist.

Now heart did have six assists in 27 minutes in the previous matchup.

Again, it's used in, but that was a couple months ago at this point.

If you dive in on some of the advanced numbers, he's averaging 8.9 potential assists per game over his last 10.

And if you look at the adjusted assist numbers, which basically tell you, like,

how many of these should be converted to assist comes in right at about four and a half.

So that this is a complete toss up type of prop.

It's not one that I love.

It's not one I would go out of my way to play.

And if you take a look at the larger sample, Jeff, Josh Hart has not had more than five assists in any games.

It's March 30.

He's had five or fewer assists in 13 of the last 15 games.

So even when he is going over this number, he's barely getting there.

Yeah, it's how much off, you know, I don't wonder with props.

It's digging into any sport like recent history.

Like, you know, the recent trends, how important is that and weighing in on the number there?

And I guess in this case, it's, it's a pretty strong factor.

Yeah, it's not the only thing you want to use, of course.

But I, I like to use last five games, last 10 games, much more than I do season long numbers.

It's so much changes over the course of NBA season.

I mean, the Hornets, which we just talked about are probably the best example.

Like pulling samples from December on the Charlotte Hornets just doesn't really make a lot of sense to me.

So I try to keep it as recent as possible.

And, you know, I always tell people, do some self filtering.

You know, make sure you're not pulling in games where, you know, if there's,

if you're putting in a 10 game span and in three of those games,

Luca Dacic was sitting out or you're resting starters, you know,

that's obviously going to be significantly different contexts.

So try to use more recent samples, but make sure you're actually auditing those samples yourself.

Good advice. I like that a lot.

Caves, Lakers, fun game here.

Biggest, biggest game.

I think maybe the best game on the card here.

We're going to, it's also the biggest total on the card at 236 and a half.

Are you over or under on this one?

Play it or pass it?

Yeah, biggest total on the slate.

Currently eight points higher than any other total.

And I will tell you via the betting splits at vson.com.

75% of the handle is on the over at the Draft King sportsbook.

Lakers do get Luca Dacic back.

He was suspended last night.

Pretty convenient for that to come against the Washington Wizards.

There's a huge spot for the Lakers.

They're in command of the three seed right now in the Western conference.

But they still have to play OKC twice in the next week.

Caves are one game behind the nicks for the three like we talked about.

Maybe they prefer to stay in this four spot.

It's the number one versus the number six offense over the last 10 games.

Both defenses middle the pack.

Caves have progressed in that area.

They're 20th and defense over the last 10.

I will say neither team is playing that quickly.

Both are slightly below league average in terms of pace.

This is going to come down to three point shooting to me, Jeff,

which is not really a proposition.

I want to embrace.

You know, it's like, do we get five threes out of Max Truce?

Do we get Sam Errol going crazy off the bench?

Is it a Luke Kinar game for the Lakers?

It's a pass for me.

It's more of a pass for me.

I think this could be a game where we see two efficient offensive.

Kind of slow things down in half work.

All right, very good.

Also, the prop on Austin Reese is over 22 and a half.

We talked about that a little bit more later in the show.

When we come back, though,

our left team is going to join us to talk a little baseball.

The prop queen joins her baseball props of the day.

You're watching Rob points on set these sports betting network.

Welcome back into prop points.

Nick Whale and Jeff Erickson hanging out with you.

Got a big major league baseball slate coming our way tonight.

And we're going to head out to the progressive guest line.

We got a friend, Ariel Epstein, the prop queen.

You, of course, know her from Twitter at Ariel Epstein.

You can check out her podcast, the prop queen pod week days,

five to six PM Eastern over on YouTube.

You could find that at prop queen sports.

Ariel, let's get right into it.

I know you have a bunch of plays for tonight's slate.

And we'll start out in Toronto,

where some of Blue Jays.

I think it's mapped around by the Colorado Rockies last night.

Max Scherzer on the hill tonight.

And you're looking at his case problems.

Max Scherzer's K-Prop is five and a half.

I know that they're getting the Colorado Rockies tonight.

But guys, the Rockies aren't striking out so far as much as they did last year.

So Max Scherzer had one strikeout in three innings in his opener last year.

Yet four strikeouts in five innings in the opener the year prior.

So it wasn't since 2023 that Max Scherzer had at least six strikeouts,

even five, honestly, on a season opener.

With his age, the Blue Jays could be limiting Scherzer and his pitch count early.

The Rockies this year, they're still averaging about five Ks

again against these starters this year.

But the book is making the number too high.

So righties are one in three over under their K-Prop against the Rockies so far.

And three of those pitchers went under five and a half Ks.

So I'm going to take the under here on Max Scherzer even money for five and a half.

I like taking unders on strikeouts this time of year as a whole.

I think they don't see pitchers go as deep.

Yesterday, Chase Burns, for instance, was brilliant, but anyone went five innings.

So we went under that seven and a half, kind of sharing a brain with you on

Cardinals and the Met's last night is on with Dustin on Caching Out.

I kind of like the under on both starting pitchers on their strikeout props tonight.

Yeah, I do too, actually.

The Met's pitcher, Kodei Sanga, is booked at four and a half.

Typically, he was a five and a half pitcher.

But remember last year, not only was he hurt, he got sent down to AAA.

He also Sanga was hurt the year prior to that.

So we're talking back to back years with injury sent down the AAA last year.

And you're getting a four and a half against the Cardinals team that barely struck out last season.

So I was looking at the numbers.

He went under four and a half Sanga in all three road games last year against teams with low K rates.

starters already only three of the last four.

So three of the four this year to go against the Cardinals went under their strikeout prop.

Averaging about three strikeouts of start.

Rides, two of the three went under their K-prop against the cards.

So I'm going to take the under here on Kodei Sanga.

It's plus 111, nice price for a pitcher that the Met's may be a little bit more cautious with.

And then on the other side, St. Louis's Andre Plante.

He was one of my favorite pitchers to make money off of last year, whether it was the outs over,

whether it was K's.

Three and a half might be a little low.

It might not make my final card, but it is minus 140 for a reason.

If you look at Plante's numbers last year against teams with low K rates, which is the Met's.

He only averaged about two and a half strikeouts a game.

At home, that number dropped to just below two K's a game.

So far, three of the four starters to face the Met's went under their strikeout prop.

Averaging about three K's a start.

So, Plante is not really a swing and miss guy.

I agree with you.

I would take the under on both of those pitchers.

The prop queen Ariel Epstein joining us on prop points via the progressive guess line.

You could catch the prop queen pod weekdays five to six PM Eastern over on YouTube prop queen sports.

Ariel, let's take a look at second game of the series between the raise and the brewers.

Raise ended up winning late last night.

Three two first loss of the year for Milwaukee coming off of a sweep over the weekend.

We got shame a clan of hand on the mound for Tampa going up against Brandon Woodruff.

Couple of pitchers making their their season debut is another K prop that we're looking at for

McLean ahead.

Yeah, we're not even just talking about a pitcher making his season debut.

We're talking about a pitcher making his debut since 2023.

There was a ton of injuries to Shane McLean a hand who hasn't seen a start since then.

So, this is a really high number at five and a half for a pitcher.

We really haven't seen much of in the last two years.

Let these went 21 and 30 over under their K prop against Milwaukee last year.

Averaging just over four strikeouts a game.

I know McLean a hand has been great in the past for Tampa.

And it's as sealing as high as six absolutely.

But I don't believe with all his injury history that we're going to see him in the game long enough

against the Milwaukee team that just doesn't strike out against South Paws.

I tell people all the time I post this in the prop queen newsletter at the prop queen.com every day.

The edge in the strikeout prop market is lefty righty splits.

It is the one thing for some reason that Vegas think goodness has not caught up to.

Lefty's always seem to find an edge because until we hit the midway point of the season,

the books always just take overall averages and sometimes

righty strikeouts so much more than lefties that the overall averages are even skewed.

So, speaking of a lefty going up against the team today, we got Max Fried going up

against the Seattle Mariners going against Logan Gilbert. What do you like in this game?

Max Fried over five and a half strikeouts.

So, the Yankees lefty only had four strikeouts against the Giants in the season opener.

Yet he's getting a team tonight in Seattle who strikes out way more against South Paws than

the Giants do and that's the Mariners. So, last year, even though it was one of the best seasons

of Max Fried's career, he averaged about seven and a half strikeouts a game, not only overall,

but on the road even against teams with high k-rates against lefties.

This year so far, obviously small sample size, one in one over under with five and seven

ks against Seattle, but that was Joey Cantio and Ryan Weathers. Guys, we know that Max Fried is so

much better than both of those pictures. Last year lefties, 29 overs, 20 unders, average just

under six strikeouts to start when facing the Mariners. I know this number is five and a half,

so you'll say, oh, but just under six, that's about this number. I'm telling you from a strikeout

prop starter standpoint, anything above five strikeouts on average for like if a starter is,

if you look the lineup and you see a starter is averaging over five strikeouts a game against

a certain lineup, that's a lot. The average is about four and a half. So to be averaging just

under six against the Seattle Mariners last year for lefties, yeah, this is a great matchup

for Max Fried and the Yankees have been on the West Coast now for a week, so it's not like we

have to worry about them traveling. Ariel, we got the giants of the Padres tonight, Logan Webb

going up against Hermann Marquez. You got some projects in Merrill who homework last night.

Oh my gosh, this is such a great matchup for Jackson Merrill over one and a half hits runs

in RBI. He is averaging two and a half hits runs in RBI and eight games against the Giants going

over in five of those eight games against San Francisco. He's nine for 13 against the Giants

starter Logan Webb. Merrill's overall production against righties, 350 weighted on base average lines

up with Webb, allowing lefties, 324 weighted on base average. So he's got the matchup. Jackson

Merrill over one and a half hits runs in RBI. He should get on base and he should be able to score at

least some kind of great combination of all of those. Ariel, there's been a little bit of debate

about batter versus pitcher stats. What constitutes a good sample size? Seen a lot of that on Twitter

right now, whether it's fantasy or whether it's props. How much does that play in and say like

Cory Seeger gets Zach Eiffel and who you know is hit very well and very limited sample so far,

but also a good start to the season with him as well. I love looking at not only that's my starting

point of looking at a hitter versus a pitcher. How well they've done in the past. I also love

looking at the stadium. How well has that player hit in each stadium? Well, Cory Seeger,

if you look at his two and a half hits runs in RBI, it is at plus 110. Even though it's

again a small sample size camped in yards prior to yesterday, he had four and three hits runs in

RBI. Sure, can we say it's a small sample size? Yes, but what else do we have to work off of?

We've got a great matchup, a player that's hitting 417 with two doubles against Eifflyn. Eifflyn

allows a 432 weighted on base average to lefties. So it's the matchup of not just how the hitters

done in the past of the pitcher. How does the pitcher do against whatever the handedness is of

that batter? How does the pitcher do in that stadium? How does the hitter do in that stadium?

If you really want to go deep, you even get the extra leg if the bullpen stinks. So I look at all

those factors, but the starting point I would say is how well a batter does against the starting

pitcher. I love at least a five to six game sample size, but I'll take three as a starting point

just because at least when you get two to three at bats against that pitcher, it's giving you a

really good head start. Right, Ariel. We got about a minute left. I noticed this on your Twitter

this week. You're running a contest with the folks over at Splash Sports. So tell us a little

bit about that and then how we could get in on it throughout the season. I can't believe Splash

already launched the second one. We just filled this morning for it was a 1112 people, $20 in

$20K to win. So you put 20 bucks in, you could have multiple entries and you win 20K. It's

survivor, but it's hit streak survivor. So if you love props, like we all do listening to

prop points, then you just need to pick a player to get a hit. And we're doing this like March

Madness NFL survivor. You sometimes split the pot with everybody because if it's a tie at the end,

the season ends. We all know that we're not making it the full season of this hit survivor.

Someone is going to win 20K. You pick a batter. You can't pick them again. That's the catch.

Tonight you could pick two batters as long as one advances, then you move on. Again,

we filled, but next week we are starting the same contest again for anyone that missed out.

So all you have to do every day, pick one batter that's going to get a hit. And for 20 bucks,

you can make 20K. It's a great way to potentially kick off these full season and change your summer.

There we have it. Ariel Epstein, the prop queen. Everybody can find all the details on that splash

contest over on her social media at Ariel Epstein on Twitter. Check out the prop queen five week days

five to six p.m. over on YouTube. We'll dive deeper into the Major League Baseball Slates when we

come back all of Jeff Erickson's best bets on the other side. Watch your prop points.

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draft Kings. Welcome back into prop points, Dick whale and Jeff Erickson hanging out with you

just a gorgeous voice over on that draft Kings read Jeff. I mean, whoever whoever did that just a

a bang up job getting that one out. It's back to the MLB. Yeah, I mean, you just can't say enough

about it. We got plenty of baseball games on the slate. We just had aerial Epstein handing out her

best bets. Let's get some from you, Jeff. Let's head over to Rangers Orioles in Baltimore. We got

Jacob DeGrom taken on Zach afflin Rangers minus 126 favorites on the money line total coming in

at eight and a half. So all the Rangers take game one of the series last night. Jack lighter

picking up the win. Interesting pitching matchup. Obviously, you would think DeGrom has the edge

but was scratched over the weekend with a neck issue. You do wonder how deep into this game

does Zach afflin go? How are we attacking Ranger Zoes? Yeah, I kind of curious on both a little bit

there. I like a couple of things. I like Jake Berger as a home run prop here plus 425 over at hard

rock. This one's courtesy of road wire smart money. A lot of action being laid down on Jake Berger

home run props today. So kind of dug around found the best odds that I could find right now for plus

425 over at hard rock. I just like the Rangers to win this game minus 125. I get it there you're

it's minus money for a road team. But at the flip side is you're getting the better starting

pitching matchup here. I think if you put this starting pitching matchup on a neutral field or

in Texas, you get a much much higher price there. So I'm going to go ahead and go ahead

take the money line on this one on the Rangers as well. The raise and the brewers game two of that

series in Milwaukee tonight, a seven p.m. Eastern first pitch. As we discussed with Ariel,

Shane McClanahan taking on Brandon Woodruff. Excited to see what Woodruff looks like in his debut.

You know, weren't really sure when he would be ready. I ended up having to push him back a little

bit, but he'll make his first start tonight. I know you have a money line play here, Jeff. And I

don't like the side that you're on. I'm sorry. Usually I curry favor with my host, but in this case,

I am not. This is these are Spider-Man shift guys teams here. The brewers are the better version

of this actually of the raise, but same time I'm I'm just very nervous about Woodruff. You know,

we saw very little out of him in spring training. Was he going to be ready for opening day or not?

I don't think he goes very deep into this game. We're getting plus money on the raise,

so I think our underrated team plus one 12 over at Fandall. Just going to go that way there.

I've got a number of money line plays today kind of going that route. Maybe I'm feeling my oats

wild oats here with all the with one money line success. So I'm going to have a number of them

today. Let's head over to Metz Cardinals in St. Louis. Cody Senga going up against Andre Piante.

You talked with Ariel about being of the same mind on some caprops for for both of those pictures,

but we're tacking on something with the total as well. Yeah, and this is a weather play. Didn't

quite work out yesterday with the Cubs and the Angels Angels didn't do their part. Got to nine,

not nine and a half, but we'll go back to the well. It's eight and a half today minus 102 over at

MGM 13 mile an hour wind blowing out going to be in the eighties again. You got two pictures

pitching the contact. Well, they're pitching the contact and the winds blowing out. Sign me up.

We'll see if we can get some more runs out of this one. Added bonus, the Cardinals aren't striking

out much this year at 16.6%. And we know the Metz are pretty solid contact team. Good lineup top

to bottom. So going over eight and a half on this one here. Yankees Mariners out in Seattle,

Max Fried going up against Logan Gilbert. And when you dig in Jeff on the pitcher matchups here,

this has not been a friendly matchup over the years for Gilbert. Yeah Yankees hitters have a 906

collective OPS against Gilbert over his career. It's fewer than 100 played appearances. That's the

one thing maybe to take a little bit of caution on. Maybe you had, you know, a bad Yankee stadium

outing mixed in there as well. But still I love freed against the Mariners. I think we're getting

a pretty good price on the money line minus 115 over at DK. Another one that wrote a wire smart

money likes quite a bit there. A lot of action on the Yankees money line.

Let's head over to Giants Padres out on the West Coast in the late window at 940 PM Eastern

first pitch Logan Webb versus Hermann Marquez. This is where Ariel gave us the Jackson Merrill prop.

But another money line played for you, Jeff. Yeah. So a couple of things. You know, you mentioned

Merrill. Logan Webb's faced the Padres a ton over his career. They're division foes. So there's

a plenty of sample here. Padres hitters have a collective 200 and 203 at bats against Webb.

In those at bats, they're hitting 310 with a 467 slug. Nine walks mixed in there as well.

You mentioned Jackson Merrill. She, you know, Ariel mentioned Jackson Merrill. I like that aspect of

that there. I just think the Padres, I know I'm kind of fading in on the season, but I'm also

kind of fading the Giants too. Just have a hard time scoring. I think they're, you know, they get

the superior matchup. The Giants do versus Hermann Marquez. But it is in Petco that evens it out just

a little bit. I'm just not sold on this Giants line up there and I'm not sold on the Giants

bullpen. We saw Ryan Walker get the save yesterday gave up a two run homer in the process.

I just getting the game to the end of the game. They're finishing it out. Even if Webb

pitches well, I think the Padres are still always live in this game too. So give me an underdog

on the money line on this one here. I'm going to go ahead and take the the the Padres on the

money line at home plus 122 over at Fandall. Got the Cardi into the Dodgers game two of that series.

Also in the late window tonight. Tanner Bible going up again. Show Hey Otoni Dodgers massive

favorites on the money line. Jeff minus 280 is the number right now over at draft Kings. We saw

Tanner Bible at the first start of the year. Didn't go great gave up three home runs in the opener for

the Guardian. How do we attack this game? You know, I'm going to go with show Hey Otoni. One of the

things about that game last night between the Dodgers and the Guardians is Rocky Sasaki only

pitched for innings that meant that Justin Robleski had to also pitch for innings won't be available

tonight. He did save the rest of the bullpen at least, but they may have to do a little situation

there where they drag out Otoni. Maybe that extra inning. I know people are afraid of what happened

Otoni last year that he had a lot of for inning games. I think he gets to a strikeout prop tonight.

It's six and a half. It's not it's not cheap. But I think he gets there. I like that going up

against Tanner Bible who left last game with the shoulder issue too. There's a reason why that

there's a massive they're a massive favorite on the money line, especially following a loss like

that. I'm not surprised. I'm not going to touch that price. Not might not a whole lot of profit

in touching that price. But let's go with the Otoni over six and a half strikeouts instead.

I know you don't have an official play Jeff for athletics Braves tonight. Athletics are the only

winless team so far in Major League Baseball. They're striking out a ton. Nobody is hitting well

right now for this team. Can you offer me some encouragement as somebody rostering Nick Kurtz,

somebody who spent a high second round pick on Nick Kurtz? He struck out a ton down the stretch

last year too. There is a reason why he started falling a little bit. I do have a little bit of

exposure to Kurtz as well. So I'm hurting him right there with you Nick. They go face Jose Suarez

today. I mean that that is the lesser of the former Angel of Jose's. So you know,

all right, current Angel and Jose. Sorry. I know I should say I guess, but I left he left

he match up for Kurtz today. I don't love it. And in fact, I like the Suarez four and a half

K prop there along. Yeah, that's one of my two best bets is over four and a half K's.

Bryce slash Pliny. The elder got over four and a half K's yesterday against the athletic. So

let's go back to the well. Okay. Now when I wanted to hear, but as always, I appreciate

honesty, tacking on Yankees money line as well as the best bet tonight.

Yes, sir. Minus 115. Love that pitching match up there for the Yankees.

All right. I'm going to give you Sun's money line going up against the Orlando Magic.

This one's in Orlando. There is a slight rest advantage for the magic. But I'll give me the

Sun's at plus money plus 105 at draft Kings. It is a back-to-back for the Phoenix Suns.

But not all back-to-backs are created equal, Jeff. They played against Memphis last night. That

was a complete laydown spot once again for the Grizzlies. Suns won that game by 20 plus. Didn't

have to overextend a lot of their regulars. You should get Dylan Brooks back tonight to

to bolster that defense, which is slipped in recent weeks. So give me the Sun's money line

continuing to fade the Orlando Magic. That's going to wrap the Tuesday edition of prop points.

But keep it right here on Beeson Money Moves with JVT coming up next at a perk.

I'm going to stop by the show with all of his best plays in Major League Baseball.

Have a great day. Enjoy the baseball slate. Enjoy NBA tonight. We'll talk to you tomorrow.