Premier Smith beats all odds in comeback for the ages

0:00floor crossings, all the rage these days with many wondering if the newly minted four liberal MPs will survive in the next federal election. As we know, ship jumpers have historically come out on the losing end when they undergo a personal rebrand. And there's one famous case I want to talk about took place 11 years ago this month where a well-known politician who had crossed the floor here in Alberta lost her party's nomination vote. Her crime deemed so heinous that even her own party didn't want her anymore. But Lazarus and John Travolta have nothing on this comeback story. It's hard to imagine if you were sitting in the room at the Highwood Memorial Center on March 28, 2015 that Danielle Smith would not only get a second chance at politics, but that she'd ride the elevator to the top of Alberta's political machine. And despite no shortage of controversies, we've got a couple new polls this week that show that her and the UCP are still clearly in the driver's seat in Alberta. And it certainly looks as things stand right now that she could be the

1:03first conservative premier in Alberta to seek a second mandate since Ralph Klein. So I want to chat to a gentleman who penned a column today. Premier Smith meets all odds and come back for the ages. Chris Nelson with the Calgary Harrel with us on the line. Good afternoon. Hey, how are you doing? I'm doing well. I gotta admit, not as well as Danielle Smith. And certainly, I mean, you know what? Critically, objectively, you have to say that this is undoubtedly one of the greatest comebacks in Canadian political history because we've seen a lot of people step aside, step out of the spotlight, then come back, but that's of their own doing. This one was obviously out of Danielle's hands back in 2015. You almost have to go back to like John A. McDonald when he got shamed out of office the first time and then wound up becoming the prime minister again. You almost have to go back that far to see a rebound to this magnitude, at least as far as I'm concerned, because you're saying this is one for the ages. Yeah, it's it's remarkable. And I don't think Albert was a Canadian. So I'm not quite, um, realized just how remarkable it is that, uh,

2:12after she was, um, in 2015, uh, she was dead and gone as far as the politician goes. I mean, of course, she ended up on a talk show, where you talk show. So I guess there's hope for you yet, but really in terms of coming back as a politician, never mind the, uh, the premier of Albert, uh, no one would have given her a chance. And it isn't as though she's just come back and, um, sort of, uh, being, you know, a little bit of this, a little bit of that. She has, uh, found herself has made herself the most dominant politician, provincial politician for sure in this country. Uh, there really is no one, uh, to touch her in terms of a profile and in terms of where she stands and the polish she, uh, she holds in those hands, uh, right now. Yeah, I'm sure Doug Ford would like a word with you on that, but uh, certainly understand what

3:12you're putting out there. Um, I'm curious from your perspective. What is it that's different this time, right? Because I think certainly there has been, uh, there have been sort of political, philosophical, politically, philosophical change, philosophical changes along the way. She also seems a little bit more confident, perhaps, this, uh, second go around. What, what's your take in terms of, of what's different for Danielle Smith in 2026? Uh, I think she's certainly more mature, um, but she has, uh, as I said, the country's got that certain magic. Um, uh, the way that Ralph Friin had it and, uh, she appeals to regular Albertans, um, in a way that, uh, you look at someone like Kenny or Redford or Stelmark, they just didn't have that. I'm not to say they were incompetent in their own way, but there's something about, uh, Daniel Smith that people like, uh, now there's a lot of people who don't like her, but, um, it's remarkable that when you consider the, really the breach of trust that she engaged in

4:17whatever 11 years ago, um, and now Albertans are essentially trusting her not just to run the province, but, uh, potentially to, uh, to guide us through a vote-on separation. Uh, that's a huge amount of trust to, uh, to give to a politician. And, uh, we're giving it to someone who, uh, was guilty of one of the, uh, the largest breaches of trust in politics and Alberta for the last quarter century. Yeah. Well, it's interesting. Let me take a look at the poll numbers, as I mentioned. We'll throw abacus out here. There, uh, 49 to 36, the UCP over the NDP. Danielle Smith with a clear advantage in terms of support over NDP later in the head and you mentioned, obviously, the back history. And you take a look at some of the issues dominating the headlines these days, whether it's the classroom complexity, classroom size issue, hospital crisis, bad news budget, allegations of corruptions, the questions on sovereignty. Um, to me, it's interesting because I

5:21think for, you know, maybe any of her predecessors, that would have been enough to end the honeymoon, but she's remained incredibly steady in terms of her support amongst her base. Yes, I know. Really, if you, uh, say, if you look at the issues and I listed a bunch of them, I call them, uh, you would expect that, uh, the NDP would be leading, um, because this also is halfway through her term. And traditionally in politics, the, uh, the ruling party, no matter who it is, um, tends to do worse about halfway through because people haven't made their mind up or they, they just want to grumble. So, um, this is not a time that when you would expect, uh, the ruling party to be as strong as that, particularly when you look at, uh, all those things that have happened. Then we've also got a budget with, uh, a huge hole in it, although maybe, maybe in the last few days, it's not quite as big, but, uh, who knows where that will go. But, uh, on any regular metric,

6:24you would imagine that a government that has gone through so much, so much, uh, controversy would be struggling in the polls at this point. And yet they are, uh, they, if there's an election called today, if those poll numbers are correct, and there's been three polls that are very, very similar. Um, they would probably pick up, uh, more seats than they didn't last election. Yeah. Well, what, what that in mind, last question before I let you go, as I mentioned, no conservative premier has gone to the polls in consecutive elections since Ralph Klein, uh, pre-mischmit has rock solid support amongst the base, but also does have some of the highest disapproval ratings of any premier in Canada. And then there's the whole emotion of what the separatist movement might do with her unless they get their way. So my thought, my question to you is, as things stand right now, looking ahead to 2027, do you think she's going to break that post-clined premier curse? Um, I would say yes, and I would say she will do it as premier of Alberta,

7:25and not as a new president of the country of Alberta. There you go. Okay, well, I'm putting pen to paper on that one there. And when it comes to pass, we'll bring you on and, uh, either give you a kudos or give you a little bit of a ribbon for that. Chris, this is, again, it's an interesting conversation. It's in, like I said, it's a comeback story politically that I don't think we've ever really seen in Canada quite like this. And a great column and appreciate coming on to talk about that. Anytime. There you go. That's a Chris Nelson over the Calgary Held. He just finished pending a new column. Premier Smith beats all ads in all odds rather in comeback for the ages.