PGA Round 3 Showdown - Arnold Palmer Invitational | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process | 03/07/26

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1:25Welcome to another Friday night. Friday night was shipping nation. Round three now. Round three showdown. Bay Hill. I'm very happy to be talking some golf on Friday afternoon, Friday evening. It is what? 515 Eastern Time. I know the cut is not set in stone just yet, but we have a good idea of where we were looking at. Obviously things may change, so if I'm talking about some guys on the cut line. If I like them and they're not on the cut line, that means I don't like them because they're not going to be playing tomorrow. And you can't play them. So, if you do, I'm sorry, but just don't play the guys who are around the cut line without checking if they make me the cut first or not. There's got some stuff going on. Had to get the show done a little bit early tonight. So, we're back. Let's talk about round two. Who did what? How it went down?

2:25I'll bring up my screen right now. We see ox A's dull in the golf course, Sahih, Daniel Berger again, Rory all rounds with four under or better. And this is a really unique kind of round two scoring. Usually with, with every single round, there's just like one set in stone away that people do it. It's like, all right, driving accuracy prevailed today. accuracy prevailed today. All right. Bombers prevailed today. All right. X prevailed today. This week was like it was it was so weird. It was like there's no distance bias. There was no accuracy bias. Guys did it in multiple ways. And it was the only constant was just like stern ball strike. Like you had to hit the ball well and then either pop in one of the two short game categories, whether that's putting or around the green. So that kind of checks out with Bay Hill. Like you have to just be a stern solid ball strike or no no matter how you're doing, obviously long and straight will work anywhere. But this is a week where you're able to do it in multiple ways. And I kind of talked about that on the Monday, the Monday first look show. Like there's multiple styles where guys have won this event. And that's kind of prevailing right now. And even with the rounds of the day, like there's no set and

3:28stone way that guys are getting it done, which I guess makes showdown more difficult for the next few days. Like there's not one set and stone thing that I want to lay into. I like when that's the case, because I just go all my eggs in that basket. And if it works, usually I have a high end finish. I'm all about having a tight core and just like going into one like a massive bullet. All right, Scotty's putting free gold announced it for me, Sam. Is it close? Scotty's putting free gold is just important stuff. Roll in real close. All right, Scotty to four under. I'm sweating Scotty. You guys know I'm sweating Scotty. I think a big round's coming from Scotty tomorrow, by the way. Big rounds coming from Scotty gets to four under. He's played horrendously today. And he's too under on the day with what now two holes to go. Hopefully we get some some more left for Scotty, but I'll get into him a little bit later. Back to the key stat, just like nothing nothing set and stone. And like I said, I like to dive into one real stat to really just like give myself an edge. And if that stat pans out, bang, we're cash in or bang, we're not

4:31cashing at all. I like to be all the way in or all the way out. I don't like those like, I don't like those mincaches. At least that's what I'm not good at those. I'm not good at a more balanced type build. I like to be very low on, tried and true, go for it all mentality. So we will get to the wave split. We'll get to the wind and weather for tomorrow. So let's bring that update the page a little bit. Looking at the cut is 100% too. So I trusted it off 100% too, whole by whole core stats, round two, wave split. So there was not really any wave split today. The morning played a tad easier. And honestly, this, oh, sorry, I am messed up the, the, there we go. The morning played a tad easier, but it was nothing like true to really make it a split. I thought it would play easier than it did. But tomorrow, I think it could be different because when I bring up the weather, I see a world where they could move these t times up. Like we have thunderstorms coming in at 1 p.m. And then 4 p.m. I would see a potential world where they move the tea. They started at 7.40 today. They started at what,

5:357.15, 7.20 tomorrow with less guys in the field that they'll easily be able to finish in time. If they go off ahead of time. So I think no matter what earlier is better, but if they move the tea times up, that just like amplifies it even more. So earlier is better no matter what for tomorrow. So what we're looking for for tomorrow stat wise is just, why do I keep doing that? Is just solid ball striking? Just try it in true solid ball striking and finding that those guys who can mix in the short game, finding those guys who have a little bit of short game, like even short game with the ability to pop from good ball striking. So I think that is the solid way to do it. Let me try to fix my screen work. Why is that happening? There we go. Much better. All right, let's go to the draft Kings. Bring up the contest. Always talk some contest selection as we go. So Saturday, March 7th. What a day. March 7th will be. It's one of my favorite days of the year, truly. Let's

6:35zoom in a little bit. What do we got here? I haven't looked at any of the context yet. This is $3.20 max. $10.20 max. Okay. This is a, I don't really usually see this one unless I'm totally missing it. 2K up top and then 10th place 60. I don't think this is the greatest payout. Structure in the world, but only 352 people in there and you're getting 20 lineups to possibly win 2K. So what? This is interesting now. I'm kind of intrigued by this one. So 352 divided by 20. If you max enter that, if you max enter that and everyone max enters that, that means you only have to be 18 people. I don't think this is the worst contest based on just like pure size alone and not everyone's going to max enter it. So if you max enter that, I think that is a real like a real potential edge. Oh, that's a weekend. That's why. That's weekend. Sorry. Here we go. Either way, that's a really good contest in my opinion. That's why I haven't seen it. Here we go. $10.18 max.

7:38The $55 was a great contest yesterday and I think it's another great contest today. The $55.12 max. Does anyone play weekend contests like just weekend alone? Because I really like that payout structure. $55 again, obviously $10. What did we talk about the $12 yesterday? We have the $3K $12. We'll see if we're going to $6K $12, most likely not. But this payout structure is not the best. I think it was better in the $6K. And what else do I want to touch on? I'm not going to touch on the satellite. The $20.5 max. How's this payout structure? $500 up top. $10.75. Only $176 contest. If you do $176 divided by $5, I mean, you only have to beat $35.2 people. If they all max enter, not everyone will max entering. So if you want to put in $100, you'll have an edge for sure in terms of overlay. So I do like these contests. Before we get into the players with the glaring weaknesses, I want to show you some tools, some stuff. And I need

8:41you guys to use the code. Because like I said, I don't know how much longer it's going to be there. But if you use this code, you get this stone. This stone is a great tool to look and see of whether it's pivots sleepers, true approach delta, so many different tools on this stone that you can only get with us at trippingation.com. As well, you get the projections. The projections will be up in the next three hours, I would say, because I'm doing this show early. And as always, during the nation, you can get a ton of great stuff, including the sleep plan, which I will show after this, all access to get all every single sport plus the optimizer. If you just want the golf, hit single sport, PGA, and get any of these three, I would suggest this middle one right here. The best price, in my opinion, you get PGA plus the optimizer, you get boots on the ground, you get the slate plans. I'll always be honest with the slate plans. We've had great ones. We've had some bad ones. Yes, today was not the best slate plan. Not that anyone scored like crazy anyway, but we've had better slate plans than we've had today. So hopefully we could bounce back tomorrow.

9:42This will be up in the next hour or so. So you use this, you use the projections, you use the stone, you go right here to Sabersim, and then you check the the stone, all those tools, projections, and the slate plan are to build a player pool. And once you have your player pool, you go get your slate, you hit Bang, hit your slate, and then you go up here, pick your slate, pick your guys, and you build. So that's that. That's what I am looking for in terms of contest selection, in terms of content on the site coming soon. For now, we will look at some Torment stats, see who's doing what, how they did it, and who can improve in tomorrow and in the weekend. Let me know if Scotty does anything cool over there, Sam. I need to I obviously need to have the Scotty Shaffler update while I'm the per the I got like a a wall blocking off the back on 17 and the deep rough. First cut. All right, we need to know what Scotty's going on. And I'm like, I

10:45mean, don't feel for a job or comment, like let me know if it's easy up and down, because this is big time stuff right now sweating the Scotty Shaffler three or one ticket. I'm just kidding. I'm actually not getting I'm sweating it. That's what we're here for it. We're here to sweat together a little cut sweat action, but there's not really cuts what it just set plus two. I guess you can look at the cut sweat before I get into it. Who's on the cut line? I believe it's Shane Lowry. Let's see, let's see, let's see. All right, total. Who is on this cut line of minus two? This is just doesn't I feel like I'm looking at the wrong thing right now. Oh, plus two. I'm so dumb. All right, this cut line is locked in at plus two. It says there's no one at three over Shane Lowry is waiting to moment of truth for Shane Lowry on 18 right now. As you guys know, 18 not an easy hole. Let me know what Shane does in on this 18th hole, because I know he was a interesting interesting bullet this week. And I best everyone else is kind of

11:49not really in target with the cut line. All right, so let's get into the glaring weaknesses, see who did what, see who can improve tomorrow. So Daniel Berger leads the way having gaining, these are all multiplied by two, because these have the way data golf sorts it out is one round aggregate. So gaining two strokes of the tee, gaining five strokes on approach, like 5.2 strokes on approach, another four and a half strokes putting. That is one of the most elite two round stat lines that maybe ever. And it checks out. He's got a five stroke lead on Oxford, Betia, and a six stroke lead on the rest of the field. Do I expect Daniel Berger to go out and shoot another round of four under? No, we know what he's done, like I guess under the pressure in his career. But I wouldn't expect him to just necessarily shoot four over. So I would say Daniel Berger just to stay away guy for me. And let's see super, super low on, which he could be. Then I get to get to some, get to some burger. And Ludwig is really interesting. He's gaining about three

12:50strokes on approach, just getting a half a stroke off the tee and gaining two point six strokes, put it. That's a really, really good stat line for Ludwig, because we know his best skill set is the driver, and he hasn't even driven it that well so far. If he could find the driver, give himself even more looks, he can have another round of three under round will go so far tomorrow in the conditions. So if Ludwig just drives the tad better, he should have three under at the minimum. Colin on 17 right now, he might be done, but Colin is one under on the day with another, like kind of similar stat line to Ludwig, like he's not driving it that well at all. And he's probably driving an accurate, but that's that's really it. Let's look at these player types. Colin should have an A next to it. Yeah, he's driving an accurate not long. So I wouldn't necessarily think Colin's going to just pop. But let's find guys down here who actually have some weaknesses that we can potentially pop in on to Cameron Young. Cameron Young, he's gaining, he's gaining nearly seven strokes off the tee in two rounds. That is comedy stock from Cameron Young. And I expect nothing less because Cameron Young probably is winning four majors this year. So he's gaining seven off the tee,

13:55another stroke on approach, losing one around the green, gaining half a stroke on the stroke game. This is a perfect profile I'm looking for for tomorrow. So what I said earlier, solid ball striking, good ball striking average around the green. If one of those around the green's pop and pairs with that solid ball striking, bang, you're getting that elite elite stuff from from Cameron Young. So I really do like that Cameron Young profile for tomorrow. Now this is a profile that I think a lot of people will want to go to see where Kim gaining two strokes off the tee, gaining another seven strokes on approach. And he's losing six strokes putting less than six strokes putting. Everyone's going to be like, oh, see who can just find the flat stick. He's going to have a good round. Guys, you know, it's not that easy. Guys don't always just find the flat stick in one one off round. If you play golf, you know, you're not owed anything on the greens. And see who knows he's not owed anything on the greens. It could just be a bad putting week for see who I don't want to chase a bad putter. I'd rather ride a lucky good putter because we see it. We see guys have luck putters for two, three rounds. So I'd rather ride a lucky one and try to chase the flip because

15:01the flips don't come as often as we'd like them to. So I'll probably out on see who we're here. This one, Matt Fitzpatrick. Matt Fitzpatrick, he is gaining three strokes off the tee losing, is this really 10 strokes on approach? There's no way that's a real number. I need to I need to go look at Matt Fitzpatrick right now. Is this is quite concerning? Okay, he's losing 5.6. So those data golf numbers aren't necessarily fully caught up yet. Still nonetheless, Matt Fitzpatrick losing 5.6 strokes on approach, driving the piss out of it. That's kind of what I saw from him this week. And I know that this this approach number is not that bad. He is not nearly that far off with the irons. So if Matt can just have a I mean, I'm sure his approach true approach delta will be solid tomorrow. So go look at Fitz's true approach delta when the stone comes out. If it's anything near zero, anything near like two minus two, I'm in on on a on Matt Fitzpatrick in that regard tomorrow. Who else? Who else is doing things? Okay, and not popping where they could pop.

16:09Wow, what a stat line for Max Grazerman. And that kind of pads with the his scorecard today. Who's this right here? Andrew Putnam. So I don't mind this profile from Andrew Putnam. He's gaining about two strokes on approach. I would assume minus two to four off the tee. Good short game, not the best putting. Andrew Putnam is a really good putter. He's never gonna gain off the tee, but he'll gain in terms of accuracy. And he the short game is fine with room to pop. And he's hitting his irons well. So Andrew Putnam is a really good golfer to potentially pop at super low ownership to pair with Scott in the 6K range. I definitely like him, like him a ton. So those are some guys, some guys that I think could pop some glaring weaknesses. That leads us to the one golfer that I am on for tomorrow. And it is guy by the name of Tommy Fleetwood. Tommy Fleetwood shot a 33 on the back nine to make the cut finish one over for the tournament thus far. And look at this stat line. He's not doing anything great. He's not this bad at putting. This is a putter who will flip. And more than anything, I just like Tommy Fleetwood in backdoor scenarios. I do think

17:13he's gonna, he's gonna like mix at a harder rate this year and have less backdoors than he usually does. But nonetheless, we know Tommy Fleetwood is a perennial backdoor player. So whether it's tomorrow, whether it's Sunday, I expect that 500 round from Tommy to come in difficult conditions because we know he does that. He does that better than a lot of people just box up on Saturday and Sunday when he's out of the tournament and post a nice top five finish. So Tommy Fleetwood is the one golfer I am on for tomorrow. As always, the song of the day for this this stream is going to be paradox by the pretty wild. Check it out. The playlist is already up to date. As you guys know, you guys are asking the discord. That leads us. That's the show. Hope you guys enjoyed. I will be back tomorrow, March 7th for round four showdown. And as always, ship it. Peace out.