Opinion: Lessons from a bad weather forecast

Washington, D.C. flew into a panic last weekend, schools closed, parents scrambled, flights were cancelled, and mayors declared emergencies.

There's a storm coming, people in and around the nation's capital exclaimed to one another Sunday night.

Are you ready? Charge your phone so you can call for help.

But unplug your laptop, because of lightning, prune the trees, fill your bathtubs, juice up your generator, stay away from windows,

hoard power bars, hunker down. And not a lot. The severe weather with rain hailed tornadoes and hurricane

force wind gusts predicted for Monday, March 16, never quite blew into town. My family and I

dared to venture out for a birthday dinner and what turned out to be a light mist. After all, the

dire predictions it was almost disappointing. It was almost refreshing. What a horrible forecast by

meteorologists, especially myself, local meteorologist Matthew Capucci wrote on X, essentially a

nothingburger. He posted a video in which he noted that schools, airlines, cities, and families had

upset their plans. Much of it under my advice, 10 million people were notified of something that

didn't really wind up happening. He explained that the movement of storms at the Carolina's had

reduced the storm fuel of warmer air that he and other meteorologists had expected to smack

into a cold front and whip up turbulence. And to be sure there were winds and rains strong enough

to fill several trees, flood a few roads and knock out power in some Maryland and Virginia suburbs.

Another meteorologist, Dr. J. Marshall Shepard, the University of Georgia, wrote in Forbes that

a level four or five storm in the DC area is rare, and preparation was absolutely warranted

in places like DC. Still, Matthew Capucci said we made a horrible forecast. Then he explained

why the mistake happened and added words rarely heard from other experts, analysts and public

figures who offer confident predictions on a multitude of platforms. I'm sorry. Matthew Capucci

has been praised for explaining so clearly the process that led to his bum prediction.

He seems a rare figure among Beltway pundits who acknowledges his mistakes instead of just blowing

hot air.