Ohio State WR Depth: HYPE, Reality, and the Numbers Behind It

0:00This time, you're about to feel, feel, feel, feel. Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Buckeye Weaveby podcast. I'm Tony Gurderman here as always with Tom Hortam. How's it going? Tony, I am more than a little nervous because as we were texting earlier to figure out what time we wanted to record today, you said the four words that scare me the most, I've got some numbers. So friends out there in audience plan to brace yourself for what is undoubtedly going to be a show filled with Steiner

1:01Math because Tony and Numbers do not always play nicely together. I'm going to try to figure out I'm going to have like chat GPT or something, give me a PNG that I can just put like around you this entire time of numbers that are like flashing or whatever or just they're just static right there. Yes, the reason I went and got some numbers is because we want to talk about how much depth this White receiver room actually has and how deep it can actually go like logistically in terms of you've got 60 snaps, how many receivers are you going to play? And we know over the years Brian Hartline, his rotation shrunk and shrunk and shrunk over the over his time at Ohio State, whereas Cortes Hankton, I've been watching some Kyle Parker, I'm cutting up some Kyle Parker stuff. So I'll have to skip entire series because he's not in there because they've got two or three other guys in there and then Kyle

2:04Parker will come in for a series. So like last year, there was quite a rotation there. And so, you know, we're talking about boy, who's looking good? Well, you know, the two transfers are looking good. You know, Brandon Dennis and Jeremiah Smith are going to play but then of course, you've got Chris Henry and Brock Boyd is all the talk right now. So I think that's six right there. We haven't talked about your Queen Gilford or Phillip Bell or Dennis Jones. And so what is actually a realistic rotation? And what will those numbers look like in terms of the fourth receiver? What can you expect from him? And, you know, if somebody is the fifth receiver, that's a great role. What did you put up? It's seven catches. You know, like, well, so trying to, I don't know, temper expectations or just, I guess, have the expectations meet the reality of what has been in the past? Put some context around the expectations because if we say Ohio State might play five wide receivers this year somewhat regularly, like, okay, what does that actually mean? Because I think just

3:10to sort of start the conversation out, I think you're going to see more guys getting played in meaningful spots during the course of the year. But I don't know how much those numbers are going to tick up. I don't think it's going to be 3X, what it was a couple of years ago, even if they're playing a bunch more because you don't similarly have the same number of garbage games where, well, they're playing UCLA and Purdue and Rutgers all in a row. And that's like a third of the conference season. And you don't have that this year. So there are going to be more sort of high stakes kind of snaps this year than there have been in recent, in the recent past. So I think you're going to see more of those guys playing meaningful snaps in the, you know, four, five, six probably kind of range. But they're not going to be as many not so meaningful snaps this year. So I don't know how much it's actually going to impact the bottom line numbers. I also think this will be the first time in a while that Ohio State has four veteran

4:13receivers at the top of the board, which is something they haven't in a while. Or when they, when they almost did their injuries, whether it's Jackson Smith and Jigba going down, or Ameka Buka missing much of 2023, that whole situation when, you know, he wasn't out there as much. And so I'll just, I'll give you an idea time. Last year, for instance, Ohio State's fourth receiver caught six passes, the fifth receiver caught six passes, the sixth receiver caught four. And that's my own grand Bryson Rogers, Quincy Porter. But during bright heartlines last five years, at Ohio State, the fourth receiver averaged 12.6 receptions, the fifth receiver averaged 8.6 receptions and the sixth receiver 4.2. And that's with keeping in mind that throughout these years, you're, you are talking about there were injuries, which moved guys up. You're talking

5:16about there were opt-outs, which allowed the 2021 numbers for Margaret Harrison to go from five or six catches to 11. And the same with Ameka Buka to go from like five to nine, which really bolstered the numbers. So without the injuries and without the opt-outs, those numbers are lower. And so you compare that with, we'll just talk to fourth receiver here, 12.6 for Ohio State over the last five years. And Cortes Hankton's last five years, which is the last four LSU and in a year at Georgia, the fourth receiver is averaged 22 catches. So 10 more catches last year, that was Kyle Barker for 30 31 catches. And three of those years, three of those five years, the fourth receivers had at least 23 catches. And if the fourth receiver has 23 catches this year, time, I think that would be low. Yeah, that's probably a little bit on the low side, because I think this is a wide receiver room that probably has a little bit more depth than the one did last

6:20year. We're last year. Bryson Rogers kind of was what he was. The role didn't ever seem to get bigger. It just kind of he was kind of the guy that he was. Mylon Graham didn't develop in the way that they were hoping you would. And the guy who came in last spring and that we kind of went, oh, all right. And you know, saw him potentially developing a bigger role to the course of the season, which was Quincy Porter, then got banged up and missed a bunch of the time. So I think you probably would have seen more out of Quincy Porter. And you all probably would have seen much bigger numbers out of Quincy Porter had he been healthy, but he wasn't. So therefore, they just the depth wasn't there. I think they probably would have loved to play a little bit more depth, a little bit more of a rotation there. But there was just such a drop off from Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith when they were healthy and Brandon Innis to the guys behind them that wasn't, you know, you were really sort of kneecapping yourself a little bit to take those guys off the field. This year, I think the depth is you don't have a Carnell Tate, which is fine. You don't generally have a Carnell Tate to go along with your Jeremiah Smith. You have a Jeremiah Smith. That's a good news. But there's not, there

7:25isn't quite that same. The second wide receiver probably is not quite as good as the second wide receiver was last year. But the fourth wide receiver should be better. The fifth wide receiver should be better. So you probably don't have as much of a drop off between two and three. So even without the change in coach to a guy who does seem to play a little bit more depth and rotate a little bit more liberally, I think just in and of itself, you should see more snaps and more receptions for those, you know, four or five, maybe six. They've got four veterans and I want to say it's not, the room is not as top heavy as it's been. And I say that because when you lose the entire 2022 class, you have no middle, right? You've just got the top and then you've got the freshman. And if the freshmen are good enough to play, then you've got just the top. There's no rotation. I will say throughout heartlines last five years, the most productive fourth receiver was Carnal Tate in 2023, 18 catches for 264 yards. And if he wasn't what he was, you know,

8:33that who knows steps it. That's probably more Xavier Johnson and Xavier Johnson is on this list. A couple of times is the fourth and the fifth receiver. In terms of the fifth receiver, because Ohio State seemingly has a fifth receiver, whether that's Brock Boyd, whether that's Chris Henry, as we talked about Phillip Belger, Quayton Gilford, the fifth receiver under Cortes Hankton, the last five years has been 13 catches 154 yards. And boy, gosh, would that be a disappointing year for all of these three. Any of these true freshmen that we keep hearing about how Brock Boyd, I thought you guys said he was the best thing since whatever in Chris Henry Jr. I was expecting Jeremiah Smith to be, you know, Jeremiah Smith Jr., right? And now we've tried to warn you that that's not possible. But the fifth receiver under Cortes Hankton in the past. And these are on offenses that are moving faster than Ohio State's offense is going to move. So keep that in mind as well. But 13 catches for 154 yards.

9:40Would the natives get restless with that or would they understand? Well, I think you, I think that's the kind of number that you say right now that everyone goes. He's way better than that. And that it just go through history. And that's just the history of true freshmen receivers at Ohio State. And most places is that that's kind of about a good true freshman season, like not an average, like a good true freshman season. And not all of the true freshmen on this year's team are going to get to that level. Maybe only, maybe only one, maybe two. And those numbers sound so low. But you know, every time we talk about Jeremiah Smith, we have to say Jeremiah Smith broke the curve. Like Jeremiah Smith is not, you have to just set him aside. Everyone Jeremiah Smith equaled the, I forget the exact stat right now. But it was like his number of touchdown catches in his true freshman season was equal to the number, or his like total production was basically equal to the number. The numbers put up by Marvin

10:42Harrison and Jackson Smith and Jigba and Garrett Wilson and Jamison Williams and Crystal while they all put together, there were some stat that was essentially like that. If you put all those guys together, all of whom ended up being first year, first round NFL draft picks, all of their stats together, basically equal Jeremiah Smith's true freshman season. And go back to like Marvin Harrison, Marvin Harrison before the Rose Bowl game, I think had six catches and a hundred and something yards and no touchdowns. And he had three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl. But because the he had Crystal Ave and Garrett Wilson playing ahead of him, it's hard to get on the field. And so it's, you just, you have to just kind of always put this in the historical context of these numbers are going to sound very low. If we say someone's going to have a dozen catches and a hundred and something yards, that's, you know, that sounds like, well, that's a good game for a good receiver. Like no, that that's a good season for a true freshman wide receiver outside

11:45of the rare rare exception. I'll just throw some names out here for you to bolster your point. Jeremiah Smith, 1315 yards as a true freshman. This list of players that I'm going to give you finished with 1305 as true freshman. Are you ready? Marvin Harrison, DeVirpose, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Ameca Buca, Ray Small, Kenyan Rambo, Julian Fleming, Jameson Williams, Demetrius Stanley, Chris Gamble, Dino Dawson, Benjamin Victor, Quincy Porter. Dino Dawson, you say? Yes, 1984. 1984's on Dino Dawson against Purdue. Remembering that right, he had like the one game or something, you know. So yes, it's, there's rare fight air and then there's everybody else. And that 13 for 154 that I told you, that would put whoever that is if it's one of the true freshmen between Doron Carter and Chris Olave in terms of, you know, Doron Carter at 13 catches, Chris Olave had 12. Like that's that's the normal as we always talk about when we do talk about

12:47freshmen on the show. And then for the for the last point, the sixth receiver just to as I scroll back to that one, eventually if I can find it here. But so the sixth receiver under Brian Harline four catches a year, right? Not, not much. Seven for Cortez Hankton. So again, that's, you know, it's going to be one of those freshmen or Phil Bell or Des Jones, like four catches that's that's not a lot or six catches seven catches. So just to throw this out there, just to give you guys an idea of like what to expect. You know, you can hear a bunch of good things about freshmen. There's still only so many snaps and so many passes and then you involve what people expect to be a better running game and maybe they're maybe it's more run heavy than it's been in the past. And I still don't expect anything to move any faster, maybe a little, but at least time I will say this, I expect fewer tight ends on a field. So that will help these them. Yeah,

13:50it will help the numbers. I think you're going to see them go away from the more tight end heavy packages. And that I think goes partly to what we talked about earlier where the wide receiver depth is just better. Last last year, the fourth or fifth wide receiver was in many cases just not as good as the third or fourth tight end. So this year, I think the the pendulum is kind of swinging the other direction. I will be interested to see what the tight ends look like at practice when we're in there on Saturday. But yeah, I think you're going to see more wide receivers and you know, so that will certainly help these numbers. But again, it's just you have an idea in your head where it's like, well, certainly they'll have like six guys who have 400 yards receiving this year at the least. And a couple, you know, well, three of them will have a thousand. It's like, no, that's not generally how this goes. Yeah. And the the four, five, six last year for the buck guys are all gone. I'll hit the portal. So it's it's a new crop. We have done shows throughout the the winter

14:53and the off season about each of the freshmen and each of the the new guys that we're interested in seeing and in the expectations times. So we did a show on Chris Henry. We didn't show on your quid and gilford. We did a show on Brock Boyd and each of those shows where the first two of those shows, I put my expectations out there for for their stats. And now I kind of want to revisit that because I after looking at these numbers and looking at the numbers that I gave, let's see what you think. So for Chris Henry, Jr. I said 22 catches three hundred and seven yards and three touchdowns, which I think a lot of people would say that's way low. But me and you, I'm thinking, boy, that's that's that's steep. That's it's aggressive. It's I mean, we again, putting it in the context of the numbers we just talked about where, you know, if you're the like fifth receiver, you're you're looking at like a dozen catches and 150 yards or something like that. So that would be pretty convincingly Chris Henry being the fourth receiver. And I think right now with Jeremiah Smith,

15:58with Brandon and S with Kyle Parker with Devin McHughan, I think it's going to be hard to break into that top four. It's certainly you're not going to get into the top four by default this year. You're going to have to really earn your way into the top four. And I think you're, you know, with the fact that Chris Henry hasn't lost his black stripe yet, I'm certainly assuming that's coming relatively soon, but he was not the first wide receiver to lose his black stripe this year. So Brock Boyd someone who maybe is also battling for one of those top four type spots. So yeah, I think even though as you said, I think a lot of people hear those numbers and go, those are way too low. I think they might be a little high. And that's not that we're hearing bad things about Chris Henry or that he's behind schedule in any way. I think it's just the path to the flight playing field is just it's going to be a little more challenging this year because we're hearing good things about so many other guys in that room. Now, I will be shocked if he does 22 for 307. I think he's got that ability, but it just seems high now. This one, it's your queen gilford. I'm already going to

17:01say no. This is way too high. Tom 18 for 270 and two touchdowns. I think that's right now. I don't know. I was I was I was feeling it at the time when I when I put those projections out there. I hope when I told you to chisel them in stone, you didn't. I hope you just ink a raceable ink. And again, nothing on your queen gilford. It's just a revisit of the math and you're hearing about other players stepping up. And so you you're kind of just juggling. Okay, now what what order are they in right now in terms of the whole totem pole thing? Yeah, you had just I remember you told me before recorded that show. You had just finished just somewhere in a model airplane in an unventilated room. And so, you know, I mean, these things happen. You you that can throw off your calculations a little bit. And so yeah, those for sure, I think are going to be high. And again, it's not this is not that we're hearing. Oh, no, he he is secretly bad. Like, no, he's not. He's just we've now said four veteran names. And those are all guys they're feeling pretty good about. And we talked about Chris Henry and we talked about Brock Boyd and

18:05the number six or number seven wide receiver. And, you know, that's excluding Philip, Philip Bell and Des Jones like the number six or seven wide receiver. That's, you know, the average was four catches. And so even if it's a couple, you know, three X that you're only at half of what you had sort of projected. So yeah, I think those those projections are probably going to be pretty high. We also did a show on Brock Boyd. I this is that before I was doing the the chisel and stone projection of stats. So I did not surprised to find out I did not put any stats out there. You however did. Do you remember what you said? Yes, as as I'm sure you know, I will remember every single thing I say on all of these many, many podcasts that we do. But why don't you tell the audience who may or may not actually remember? I will tell them. And then you tell me if you think maybe you'd like to revisit you said five catches 75 yards. Yeah, that's probably honestly, I think that's not that might be the closest of the three that

19:11we just talked about here. It may very well end up being because he could be he could have if he goes for double that and he's 10 450. That's not a bad freshman season at all. You know, the early returns are good on on boyd and has already lost his black stripe and and seems like someone who they like the little stuff that he's doing, which is, you know, the blocking and the attention to detail and the route running and the the hands and all that kind of stuff. That's that's the stuff that will keep a lot of freshmen off the field. It sounds like he's checked a lot of those boxes for them already. So that's good. I just I have a lot of the same questions with him that I have with all the other guys, which is boy, you know, you're not getting on the field by default this year. And even if you are earning it, it's going to be harder to get on the field and get on the field for a lot of reps this year. So, you know, I'm going to go over on that one and probably under on the other two. But, you know, I think people probably hear that right now and go, oh, he's going

20:12to do five times that and yeah, maybe, but I don't know that that's I think that that's probably a little aggressive. Now, I feel like I have to go on record. Tom, do you have your chisel in your stone out? Sorry, I'm still whiting out the old stones that you did before. But yeah, go ahead, go ahead. What about go 14 for 174 and two touchdowns? Yeah, those those sound like perfectly reasonable numbers, like absolutely perfectly reasonable well within the mark, you know, you give me two or three catches one way or another and 50 yards one way or another and a touchdown one way or another. And I think you've probably you're probably within that range somewhere. If you have sort of reasonable normal health for everyone in the room this fall in terms of, you know, how that

21:14can impact playing time. And that's right around. I sent 14 for 174. That's right around Hortes Hankton's fifth receiver over the years of 13 and 154. So I, you know, just hey, we're just having fun here talking some right receivers and what to expect. So we just wanted to lay that out there and you know, despite all of the the big things and the buzz that you're hearing, which is what we're hearing as well, there's only only so many snaps, only so many footballs. So don't get over your skis and what to expect from really anybody other than Jeremiah, I would say go ahead and do 2,000 yards. Yes, of course, obviously, but just keep in mind that there's only so many footballs out there. So that'll do it. If you're watching on YouTube, please hit that thumbs up. We'd appreciate it. Subscribe to the channel. Hit the bell to be notified. If you're listening, if fire start writing a review, as always, appreciate it. And as you know, you can continue to find us at BuckeyeHuddle.com. Thank you all for tuning in and we will talk to you all later.