O PRÓXIMO ALVO DE TRUMP

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Then, after the American New Venezuela, a question, it's getting worse, in the geopolitics,

Americans, without the envy of Petróleo Venezuelan who kept the Cuba

minimally working, what will happen when the

communist dictatorship ends? The collapse of the regime is imminent. I will try to

answer these questions here in today's video. Let's do a pause in the video

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in today's Gigi. Let's go back to the video. Even before the President of the United States,

Trump guaranteed a second mandate, Cuba was already facing its worst economic crisis since the

beginning of the 1990s. Tourism has not fully recovered from the pandemic of COVID.

The inflation is extremely high and since 2021, about a million Cubans, almost

a decade of the population of the country, left the island. And the vast majority of them

roam where the United States is. If we think about a historical parallel, which is to

be described, this shock would be the period of the special of the beginning of the 1990s.

When the Soviet collapse cut subsidies and energy, and it ended up provoking very

substantial damage to the Cuban GDP, rationing of energy and payments too.

But even with all these terrible data, in the economy, in the energy, the conclusion

that we would have naturally is, well, the regime will fall. But in fact, no,

the regime has experience in administering this decline. This means that it will probably

survive, even if the state does not regime and society are completely degraded.

If the example I mentioned now, which was when the Soviet Union helped regime,

the comparison in the current days, it is the help that the regime had from Venezuela,

the oil that came from the Chaves and then from Maduro. And that kept the regime

more solid. And of course, with the operation of Venezuela from Maduro, the main

Cuba supporter left to exist. But this is not a novelty, because the aircraft also

faced such a situation when the Soviet Union collapsed. So the impact today is that without

this oil flux that came from Venezuela, the reality of Cuba in transport, energy,

industry, and of course, due to the fact that it dominates itself, the capacity of the state

to keep the basic services is very serious. This extreme poverty, now it is

generated in all of it. And the K6, it is omnipresent, and as I said, the apagons are also

prolonged. For example, recently, the Cuban government alerted that it had no

more fuel for aviation in the international airports of the country for at least a month.

In low and foreign companies would be elaborating plans emergency action and contingency.

Several countries, including the United Kingdom, Canada and Ireland, oriented their citizens,

avoided travel to Cuba if it was not essential. And this alert of the government about the

querosene of aviation is particularly important, because it has filled a sector that,

in addition to bringing divisions, sustains companies and buildings in tourist towns,

the recent reports, they describe the airlines to air, suspending the route,

and reduced hotels in their operations, precisely during more high-temperature periods,

which recorded and created a vicious circle, less tourist, less dollars, more difficulty to

import the basics, and so on. All of this, even summarized with the successes of American sanctions

each day, more and more, has led to a constant rhythm of manchets, by the world,

declaring that Cuba is abreira. And the question here is, the abreira of what exactly

the historical point of view, the objective of the United States in relation to Cuba has always been

inducing a sufficient reward to provoke a internal pressure by political change.

And after more than six decades, it is difficult for someone to argue that this strategy

gave the right. Although, the embargo it has, without any doubt, the economy of Cuba,

but it also happened to the government in a kind of coverage, or political narrative,

for its own failure. Instead of assuming and taking the blame, he had someone,

an external enemy, to solve the problems, in the case of the United States and its embargo.

And this effect, of this narrative shield, is ancient. And the government of Cuba can

contribute part relevant to the collapse of the material, to the embargo, and with that reduced the

political cost within the economic decisions, behind reforms and inefficiency. Yes, yes, it can,

but with that Cuba is present as a small country, under a very powerful economic circle,

that is, in the narrative of the Castro family, it is a socialist view,

facing a capitalist goal. In this sense, the population's privation is like a fundamental part

of this patriotic sacrifice, instead of a product of the sake of the government in Algeria

and the economy itself. And along the years, Castro, he repeatedly encouraged the Cubans to accept

any sacrifice necessary before the embargo of the United States. One of the questions that

in the air is if the regime manages to maintain this strategy, to blame an external enemy,

a villain, it is a battle in front of the most current defeat of American sanctions,

which is a very superior escalation, it is a simple embargo that we have watched in the past.

Because in fact that the United States are currently doing, it is basically a

blow on the naval energy that comes, in the case of oil, Cuba. Even so, the regime has a

very well developed strategy to face this type of situation, even if it is a blow on the naval,

because when we look at the past, from the time of the Soviet subside, which

appeared at the beginning of the 1990s, the Cuban policy of the regime, it oscillates between some

counter-themed, summed up with an authoritarian escalation. And probably this is the strategy that we

must watch now. How did the regime do that? So, every limited opening was followed by a

reformation of the state control, producing at the end of the accounts a chronic stagnation, instead of

transforming the truth that the supposed opening should be created. And this cycle of

cuidadosa, or cautelosa, or even false, and quickly, and followed by a quick

authoritarian consolidation, it is guaranteed and guaranteed that the system adapts enough to survive

without the control of the government's elite over power. In 2010, President Raul Castro

he had fun, which the country needed to rectify, or then, the foundation,

analyzing that there is an urgency of an economic reform. And it was then, right, during a brief

supposed re-approximation, in the relations of the United States with Cuba, under the command of

President Obama, thatavana introduced modern economic changes, for example, including the expansion

of the private sector, and transactions of property, and thus increasing the experiences between

foreign investors that Cuba could be following a Chinese or Vietnamese path of a

market over a unique part, but even so, these reforms, as following the card of the

Castro, they unpacked, while the power in the background remained firmly focused on the

military and security device. And today, Cuba is semely less a state with an army, and more a

system dominated by the military, with a state coupled, that is, the state is totally serving the

institutional structure of the government, of the regime, or these alternatives, of this dictatorship.

You have an idea, with an economic role, which is administered by the military, which is the GAA,

G-A-E-S-A, it controls the lucrative lucrative industry of Cuba tourism, and as a result,

in terms of people facing extreme cases, huge luxury hotels were built for foreigners,

and for the part of the country. You earn money with this, obviously. When we look at the other side,

in the American strategy, it has already been clear, and I commented here with you, that the

United States strategy has always been to generate a sovereign economic suffering, because this

would cause the collapse of the regime. And, in 29 January this year, in 2026, Trump

signed an executive order, declaring the government of Cuba as an extra-ordinary

national and political party of the United States. And in this context that Trump and his

head of the United States, which is the Secretary of State, Mark Rubio, he has

said almost weekly that Cuba is ready to dismantle. Even so, no veteran observant,

and analyst, study, Cuba, is willing to spend money on this? Because, in fact, the crisis

that the regime is facing now, it seems less with the collapse prelude than a continuation of

another step or more, a decline in the prolonged and administrative decline that we are

watching the last six decades. Do you understand what I'm talking about here? It is that, even before

these new American sanctions, well more severe and hard, Cuban life has already

turned into a fight to achieve food. According to a research from the human rights observatory,

the OCDH, 89% of the families in Cuba live in extreme poverty, and many relate to

popular reflections. This type of condition, it does not always produce revolutionary moments.

In fact, with frequency, they produce fatigues, gutting, disorganization and a

only focus exclusively on our survival and media. An environment in which coordination

for protest, durator or sustainable is very difficult. What is happening in the reality

that Cubans are experiencing the end of social contract after the revolutionary. The conquests

that were celebrated in the countries that were celebrated before, in Saudi health, education,

sports, along with that enthusiasm, revolutionary, but these are more than relics of the world

that there is no longer time. If it is that we can say that it exists in what degree or what

faith it is, if you have the idea, public spending in these three sectors, which are always

seen, what Cuba propagandized as success sectors, it falls drastically, as

that spending on medical, personal, infrastructure is routine. Only 3% of the Cubans

relate to medical objects, by means of pharmacies, according to the research of the

human rights organization of Cuba. Even so, although the capacity of the state to

eat food and services is well defined, the coercitive device remains in

basic touch, as in all dictatorship. People die of hunger, but the ability to use force,

to sustain military forces, security forces remains in the ballad. We know of that, because, for

example, after the national protests that happened in 2021, thousands were killed, and

several received long prison sentences, and a new wave of immigration happened after that.

The real thing is that if Cuba is not still collapsing, because in the country, the factors,

as security services, cohesives, immigration and mass, and the social exhaustion,

they overcome all those who, typically, produce, revolutions, or social convulsions.

In fact, Cuba is collapsing and aging very quickly, the population fell more than 1 million

in 2020, and more than 1 quarter of the Cubans now has more than 60 years.

That is, any force of recovery needs to give it a smaller society, and significantly

older. And an aging population is also much less likely to sustain large movements of protest,

revolutionaries, fight for causes, practically lost, particularly when the younger citizens

went away from the country. Therefore, the result, paradoxically, is that the most fragile,

economically fragile society is in the most stable, politically, people. And for the United States,

paradoxically, very comfortable. If Cuba is disdainfully in the long-term decline,

instead of the imminent collapse, then the politicians who are destined here in the region

can only be impoverished by the population even more, and not helping the region to get rid of it.

And these sanctions, they can deep down the suffering without the control of the government,

while they are forced to leave the Serbian narrative and impoverished to the outside of the country,

those who really can get out and who don't have how to fight. In the end of the stories,

in this hypothesis, the pressure that it is destined to bring a change,

it can, instead of crystallize a more poor Cuba, more empty, and more repressive still,

a Cuba that exports its human consequences through the street of Florida.

The dynamic itself migratory, it turns part of a stability mechanism,

when the exit is possible, even if it is dangerous and expensive, the vote with the feet,

goes running, substitutes part of the organized protest,

in parallel the remess of the parents who live in the United States helps the families to cross the crises,

and they can also end up leaving partially the immediate pressure on the state,

without solving again the structural collapse.

Well, the resum of this racial cynicism is the following,

imagine that you try to strangle the regime, but you only strangle it economically,

and people start to run, because they have to run,

run to the United States, right? So, the incentive to try to escape is very attractive,

you know, the economy is one of the most poor in the world for the richest in the world,

and that's what makes the country the people who have

availability, energy, will, and the regime continues to be strong,

but people don't have weapons to fight, they are in an economic condition so bad that they

don't even have strength, besides the question of the demographic that I just explained.

So, looking at this angle of history, or this analysis,

the idea that just make the economic situation worse,

will make the regime of the fidel, of the castles collapse,

is doubtful, obviously, that everything is possible, the collapse is not impossible,

in the background, and a shock is the same, or you know, a subtergeist loss of remess flux,

a national failure for an infrastructure site,

can even push the system to a point of inflection, but who is there inside,

if I comment with you that the island is actually a territory of these groups of the elite,

and not the elite controlled only the territory, it is a very large control,

a island literally isolated geographically, so the regime's position is very strong,

and with this it seems that the most plausible trajectory in this story is not a

false repentine of this regime, again, it can happen, but it seems that we are observing

another chapter of a decline, prolonged, consistent and repetitive, which the story has

shown even now, Cuba can be more poor to prosper, but this does not mean that your dictatorship

will fall, I hope you liked it, don't forget to like, leave the channel, activate the bell,

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