Not-So-Great Expectations

We made another key.

We made another key.

So I can space for the free week.

So I can be small, let's be weak, let's be mad, and I can't.

And welcome to, William de Geek, presented by Blackstack Brewing, really good beer, really

near you.

I'm John bonus of Twins Daily with me, and William of the Athletic.

You are not at all me, Jeremy John.

I am not near you at all.

I've stuck me into the quote unquote podcast studio at Hammond Stadium here.

I mean, it's the radio station with the garage door that doesn't work.

Yeah, there's garage door windows and all the booths.

And we didn't break it though, right?

No, we did not break it as far as I know.

As far as they know, we did not break it.

Well, let's stick to that story, because this could be testimony here, potentially.

We have passed the halfway point of spring training.

We are now less than three weeks from opening day for the Twins, which is March 26th in Baltimore

against the Orioles.

And you start to get into these, you know, not that we're a haggard veterans of covering

spring training, but you do it a few times and you realize this is this kind of middle ground

where the novelty has completely worn off.

Right, yeah, that's right.

The players are sick of talking to the media, which I don't blame them for.

The media is sick of talking to the players, because most of them have fled.

It's just so we're clear.

Right.

I am the, I am the load regular down here for this tonight's game versus the Braves with Bailey Over on the Mount.

So, that's a, that's a sad, sad, sad state affairs.

Twins daily is the load covering it.

Yeah, just as we all predicted 10 years ago.

But also the games themselves, they never had meaning, but at least the first ones, it's like,

oh, I saw, I saw and so I sure.

Well, now you've seen everything there is to see.

We're still at the point where the roster battles are not, you know, in, are not going to conclude

anytime soon.

Sure.

And so we saw like a first, we've seen two rounds of cuts technically.

One, we're a couple of injury guys and then six guys, including Walker Jenkins,

who's injured.

We can talk more about that in a second.

So even the cuts aren't that interesting.

Yeah.

So it's like, there's this middle ground where the goal really is, don't get injured.

It's more than you are.

Yeah, right.

And unfortunately, Twins have failed that a couple of times already this spring with Pablo

and Walker Jenkins.

Sure.

And as you get like a week from now, you can start to get a better sense of guys.

Picture, start to pitch a little longer in games.

The usage of even position players.

They're not always exiting in the fourth inning.

Maybe they exit in the sixth or seventh.

Sure.

You can start to get a little bit more information to speculate and try to connect dots and stuff.

But we're still kind of probably a week or 10 days away from that.

And so we have some stuff to talk about as always.

But it's a weird point of spring training.

Yeah.

Which is like, yeah, it never mattered.

But you can kind of trick yourself the first week or two.

Sure.

Into thinking it mattered because you just, you missed it.

Right.

Yeah.

It's a novelty you've forgotten about what baseball feels like.

And now it's like, I don't know, playing another game.

So it's about right.

Yeah.

We should also mention on the Patreon side that were ramping up for the season two.

If you enjoyed this show, the way the Patreon podcast works, P-A-T-R-E-O-N,

patreon.com slash claim.

And we do this show, which we call the Friday free show.

And then we two, usually Monday and Wednesday, usually two per week during the season,

especially as sort of premium episode.

They are commercial free.

They are exclusively available to our Patreon subscribers.

And we do a lot more deep dives into stuff.

Like some topics we might do three minutes here.

We might do 23 minutes there.

We also do mailbag where we answer questions from listeners.

And then the other thing we do, we've been ramping that up lately.

We had Derek Sheltonon.

We just had Matthew Leach from mob.com on.

Both were really good shows.

I thought we do a lot more interviews over there.

And so if that interests you, as we get closer to the season,

we would love to have you join us over there.

It's eight bucks per month, two bucks a week.

You end up paying less than a dollar an episode for the year if you stick with us on that.

But I thought the Matthew Leach one was good because,

A, it's good to get the perspective of someone who's been watching the same stuff

that we've been watching and talking to the same people.

But isn't us.

That's exactly what I was going to say.

But isn't already coming in with our point of view.

And although I don't remember too much about what he was saying,

being that much different than what we're seeing.

Well, that's fine too, because then we just feel like he's confirming that we're geniuses all the time.

But it was a good one, because we talked about Brooks Lee.

We talked about Mick Able.

We talked about a lot of the roster crunch battle stuff.

We forced him to make predictions at the end of the episode for over under and all that.

We'll get into that later in this show.

So anyway, patreon.com slash gleam.

And if you like this show, you can get two more of these per week basically

with guests and mailbag, deeper dives, all that stuff, the occasional curse word.

If you're into here and that is who knows patreon.com slash gleam.

So one, I wanted to get into this because one of the things we talked about with Matthew,

who's a great guest, was that the over under for the twins is in my mind very low.

Although I'm learning now.

So let me, okay, stick with me on this.

I, when the projections came out from like Pacota, which is baseball,

perspective and zips, which is fan graphs, and they were right around 79 80 wins.

And then they lost Lopez for the season, and they dipped to like 77 78 wins,

something like that, which I think is logical on that front.

I think we were both like, yeah, that's, that's about right.

Give or take, you know, mid to high 70s.

If things go well, they can be a winning team. If things go poorly, it's another 90 lost season,

that sort of range.

And we discussed that for a few weeks.

And then the over under started to come out, you know, regardless of whatever gambling site you want to look at.

And I was personally pretty surprised that the over under was 73 and a half,

which is at least five or six wins below what the projections were.

And a setting aside the twin specific angle, it's just become increasingly uncommon

to see that big of a gap.

Sure.

The truth is that the gambling sites and Vegas are deriving their overunders

from a lot of the same projection methodology and information that places like fan graphs and baseball perspectives are.

We've talked about this over the years.

Ten years ago, you would often find a five win gap and it would be kind of low hanging fruit.

Now, it's like most of the projections are with a win or two win of the over under, not the case here.

So then on top of that, the last week or so, I've done a couple of season twin season preview segments on other podcasts.

One I did effectively wild with Ben Lindberg and Meg Raleigh, which is the fan graphs daily podcast.

And then the other one I did was rates and barrels, which is with Derek and Eno, my guy, my colleagues at the athletic,

which is more of a fantasy focused podcast.

And so I went on, I did 20, 30 minute segment talking about the twins, pretty standard.

What I was surprised by, because both of them had me predict over under sort of thing, and we talked a lot about projections on both.

What I was surprised by is that neither none of the people on those shows seem to view the 73 and a half over under as low as weird.

Yeah.

And so that kind of, it's a, I rarely find myself on the optimistic side of anything, let alone the minister.

Yeah.

And I feel like even you have been less so on that side of the fence with the twins over the last, you know, 18 months.

For good reason.

I think last year I picked the under and you picked the over to be honest.

Yeah.

Let's not bring that up.

You made me also think about one of the things we talked to Leach about is we kind of said, how do you think this season is going to play out?

And what he described was very, very similar to how last season played out, which is he didn't think it's a bad team, but he doesn't think it's a winning team probably, which means you're probably going to get into the all start break, maybe a few games below 500.

You're going to get to the trade deadline, maybe a handful of games below 500.

That is going to probably motivate the front office to have another sell off, if not a fire sale, you know, with the remaining guys, whether that's Joe Ryan, Ryan Jeffers, maybe as deep as Byron Bucks and we'll see.

And then he kind of said, well, and I expect the whole thing to just fall apart after that.

Well, that's precisely what we saw.

Right.

In the past season, whereas they were just sort of run of the mill, not good through the trade deadline, then they do the fire sale, then they're the worst team in the American League down the stretch, you finish with 92 losses.

But what we talked with Matthew about, and I think is worth highlighting is I do also kind of think that might be what we see just in terms of a big picture path for this season.

But the difference is when they traded 10 guys at the deadline, they had no quality or upside to backfill those 10 spots, especially when it came to the bullpen.

Sure.

And so what you saw was these placeholder relievers who have no chance to even be on the team the next year, let alone future years.

I think this would be a lot different because you just have like eight or 10 different prospects who if they're not already in the majors by the trade deadline.

If you clear spots, they would be just no brainer guys, whether it's someone like Walker Jenkins, Connor, Pre-Lip, Gabriel Gonzalez, or even deeper cuts like Andrew Morris or whatever, like, and that's not guaranteeing that those guys are actually immediately any better than the kind of placeholder waiver wire pickups because there is, you know, a rookie can show too, but they certainly possess a lot more upside.

So that's where I kind of of two minds on the season.

I don't expect this to be a winning team.

I do expect if that's the case, they will trade away guys, but I don't know that these August and September roster that they put out will be quite as, you know, double a triple a caliber necessarily.

But also now I'm starting to rethink like what my overall view of the team is in the sense that if I'm saying 78 for projections not bad 73 and a half for an over under seems pretty low and then you do national podcasts that are not focused on the twins.

And they're not even batten and I at 70 and a half maybe it's the projections being, you know, a handful of wins higher than that that is, you know, a little bit optimistic on that side.

I mean, I don't know how I feel about, you know, the idea being that they're going to be much if they go through a fire sale that, you know, the repeat of 2026 is going to be very similar to 2025 August and September right on the one hand.

Yes, there's a whole bunch of prospects started on the other hand.

Those guys, the guys in front of them are not the ones likely to be traded now they might be ones that you're not necessarily sold on.

But I don't know that, you know, Walner and Lee and Larnick maybe, right, but a lot of those guys are still minimum salary guys now they won't be next year.

I think I think they're most of them go to arbitration, right.

But, you know, the guys that are most likely to be traded are going to be Ryan and Jeffers and over and, you know, all of these three single year free agents, Josh Bell and

Liam Hendrix, you know, if, if Chafan's still on the roster to Taylor Rogers, he's got a single year deal, right.

Yeah, so I mean, you know, so on the one hand, I guess I can see, okay, the bullpen guys might be replaced with some, you know, starting pitching arms that they're moving to the bullpen or something.

We haven't seen that much of that.

So, no, you're not going to see it.

They don't need it right now.

Right, right, that's right.

Yeah, that's right.

Yeah, that's right.

That's right.

But, but the other guys, like the ones that you're talking about Jenkins and Gabby, Gabby Gonzalez and Emma Rodriguez and Caitlin Culpepper, I'm not sure.

I don't see them just being like, okay, well, now we're out of this.

We're benching.

Larnick, you know, I'm benching guys, John, if it goes badly for those guys, that's it.

They are not, if Trevor Larnick is not producing.

Right.

He's not, he's barely in their plans now.

Larnick might be the one that I would agree with you on, but I'm not sure about the rest.

Oh, I think it is open season on the primaged guys on all fronts.

I mean, you're telling me if Matt Walner's getting 210 at the trade deadline, you think Matt Walner's still going to be in their plans.

I do not think that.

I think this is, now, I've been saying this for a while and at some point, they have to sort of agree with me on this.

You can't just trot the same core out there and expect different results.

I'll even put Royce Lewis in the mix.

Yeah, well, that's why that's why I was going to say like another, there's another one that now Royce is a little more expensive.

So maybe, yeah.

Well, I don't even think it'll be a money thing.

I just think it'll be, if there's a third straight underwhelming season, let's say from the lineup,

why are you rolling with these guys at all, regardless of the cost?

And the other part is, if they do start to trade Ryan and Jeffers, et cetera, et cetera,

Buckston's going to want out anyway.

So then you're going to kind of feel for somebody.

Maybe.

I don't think there's going to be a shortage.

I get what you're saying.

Like, it's not a one for one.

You traded the right field there so that Jenkins can take over and right.

Yeah.

I'm just saying, if things go badly for the first 60% of the season by the trade deadline.

Sure.

You know, I'm not saying Lee Keishel.

There are some younger guys in that group that I'm not saying are going to be kicked to the curb.

But if the lineup is underperforming again, I think you can go across the board and be like,

is Larnick in their plans?

No.

Is Walnir in their plans?

No.

Is Royce Lewis necessarily in their plans?

No.

I don't think all these guys are going to be bad, but I'm saying if they are underwhelming.

But also, maybe some of those prospects are probably up already, depending on injuries.

And it's very possible that a top prospect comes up and hits 180, just like a waiver way of that.

Right.

I just think it's more from an upside standpoint.

But here's the other thing.

Most of the time, and I looked up this over the last five years, projection systems have been higher on the twins than reality.

Now, last year, they missed by 15 wins or whatever.

Sure.

That was because of the sell-off.

Although I will note, they were below 500.

Sure.

When they sold off.

Right.

Yeah.

If they would have matched the projections, they wouldn't have been a sell-off.

Correct.

Maybe on the way to being six or eight or maybe more wins below the projections.

But I think over the course of the last five years, four times the projections have overestimated the twins' win total.

I think it's been an average of eight wins per season or something like that.

And so then I start to think, well, if there's some, I don't want to say bias, because it's not like someone's putting their finger on the scale or anything like that.

But if there's something about the projections that view the twins more favorably, then actually becomes reality.

And as simple as injuries being a bigger factor or something like that.

Sure.

Well, then the 73 and a half as an over-under compared to 78 and a half as a projection from, let's say, fan graphs.

Well, then that starts to be pretty close.

Yeah.

Right.

If you're kind of building in a plus or minus of like three to five wins that they might be overestimating them.

So I don't know.

Between the possibilities of things pivoting at the trade deadline.

And just sort of the seemingly constant problem that this team has had with injuries.

And several of the past years, not so much, maybe not so much last year, but some of the other years.

You can see where the gamblers might be a little hesitant to be setting that number close to the projections system.

They might have some their own biases built in based on some recency.

And what they've seen from this franchise and this injury history, injury riddled team.

So the last time the twins had a lower preseason over-under than 73 and a half was 2015.

So over a decade ago, which 2015, they already lost 90 plus games.

What three, three, each of the last three seasons at that point.

It was, you know, it was pretty bad.

It got a little worse, which led to the regime change.

And I think that was like 69 and a half or 70 and a half.

Well, 2015, they actually did it pretty well too.

That's the, that's the funny part.

Yeah, that's the surprise.

2015 was the surprising year that they, the snow came up and they turned into a competitive team in the second half of the season and just blew it on the last weekend.

Yeah.

And then, and then there was some hope that, oh, okay, you're, you've moved past this kind of rebuilding phase with Paul Mauder as the manager, obviously, at that stage.

Right.

And then it was like, oh no, things got considerably worse from there.

Where the next season, which is 20, what, 2016 was the worst they've had.

So yeah, I don't know.

It's, it's worth noting.

I mean, we talk a lot about this stuff because I think it's a good baseline center, not so much it should be taken as gospel.

But it, it almost reminded me of the mower narrative near the mid and end of his career where we got so, as two of, I would say, the biggest mower supporters throughout.

We got so caught up in having to hear people locally, whether it was fans or media members.

Do what I would say was unnecessarily, you know, criticizing for the contract for the injuries and all.

And so we would fight back against that almost obsessively.

It became a real thing.

And then like someone from ESPN or someone from sports illustrator or whatever would come to town to do a feature on mower.

I've told this story before and they'd like reach out to one of us and be like, hey, what's the vibes around mower?

And, you know, I'd be like, oh, half the fans hate him.

But they'd be like, really?

And then they start to interview people.

And then the article inevitably would be like, he's not even really appreciated in his own city.

And then when it came time to be in the Hall of Fame, first bowed Hall of Famer, like easy choice for the Hall of Fame.

And so this is not apples to apples, but it did remind me that in our little cocoon of, you know, the twin cities, you get a narrative around the team.

And I guess we're partly responsible of providing that narrative a lot of the time.

And in my head, I guess I was like, well, 73 and a half people are going to think, even if they're down on the twins, that's pretty damn low.

That's pretty, you hit the over on that.

And then you get some people, by the way, I really respect nationally who do really good stuff are like, yeah, that seems about right.

And I was like, hmm, I saw an article yesterday by one of my favorite writers, Mike Petriello of MLB.com, who's one of their national writers.

And he did a thing ranking all the teams one through 30.

It was kind of half what he thinks their record will be for 2026 and half just kind of the state of the team going forward.

Like how much enthusiasm there is or hope there is for the fans.

Sure.

And I clicked it expecting the twins to be pretty far down the list, obviously.

And I just kept scrolling and kept scrolling and kept scrolling.

And they were in the last group, the eighth category.

There were two teams, the Los Angeles Angels, who are just the most poorly run, constant non-contender there is.

And the Minnesota twins were lower than the Colorado Rockies.

Yes.

I'm the White Sucks.

Yes.

Yeah.

So maybe for all the feeling we have that we are maybe the most critical voice covering the twins and all the crap I get from twins people themselves for things to say.

Maybe we're not critical enough.

You're saying we're too, we're too, um, yeah.

Pollyanna.

Yes.

About the, about the studios, what you're saying?

The Pollyanna boys.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I'm going to print off some of these articles next time a twins official comes up to me and I'm just going to hand them a thing.

Pollyanna and the punk.

That's working.

That's a new name of that.

Any eliteration really works pretty well here, John.

That's it.

Before we get into some lineup stuff and some news and notes from Camp and all that, let's talk about our first group of sponsors here.

Our first one, our presenting sponsor.

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All right.

Let's talk a little lineup stuff here.

Okay.

Because I feel like this whole spring, we talked pitching.

Yeah, we have.

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Real quick though as Bailey over is starting tonight.

Yeah, but what is talking about it two hours before we start?

Well, I will be very interested to see what we see from him as far as some of his velocity because we did see him do a bullpen session.

And I think the everybody is very optimistic about what we're going to see tonight and where Bailey over is coming into camp right now.

This is a thing you do all the time, which is the worst approach to broadcasting.

Which is you talk about something that is imminently happening that either will or won't be good right before it happens.

Just setting it up.

We'll see.

We'll see.

Tomorrow, you'll see how Bailey over did and you'll see what sort of velocity readings there are.

So.

And if you want more on Bailey over starts, check out patreon.com slash gleam on Monday.

Now that is a good instinct for to plug a Monday show.

Just going to stick with it.

Are you just going to hang in there?

Yeah.

It was all part of your real play of the galaxy brain plan that you have.

You're right though.

I mean, it's a big thing.

But I just we don't need to get into it.

What he's about to take the mound and hour after most people hear this.

So let's talk about the lineup.

So.

Couple of just notes.

There's like big news on it or anything.

Byron Buckston left camp.

So he's not there.

He's in the WBC at a home already made a good catch already.

Right.

Right.

I'm hoping he further increases his national profile as he did last year.

Being in the all-star game home run Derby, et cetera.

That's great.

On the WBC front, we already said Taj Bradley opted out.

Joe Ryan is out at least for the initial rounds because of his sore back.

Yeah.

And obviously Papa Lopez is not pitching for Venezuela because he's not pitching for anyone for the next year.

So that's just that front.

Luke Keishel played left field.

Yeah.

He played anywhere in the outfield for the first time since August of 2024 when he had when he was shut down.

It was planned to shut him down because he had played that whole season with elbow problems.

And he had Tommy John surgery.

Yeah.

And you know, prior to I know there are people who saw that and they're like,

why would you play him in left field?

A, he's going to be the second baseman.

B, the last thing the twins need on the current roster.

He's another left fielder, right?

I mean, the whole thing is left fielder.

I would point out a couple things on that front.

One is there's no guarantee he's going to be the second baseman long term.

And in fact, I think I would probably take no more than 50-50 that he's the second baseman for more than a couple more years.

B, prior to the elbow surgery, he played a lot of outfield.

And in fact, he played center field quite a bit coming up through the minors.

There were a lot of people who believe not only that he could be a better outfielder than a second baseman,

that he actually might be a more viable center fielder because that's based more just on peer speed and athleticism than second base.

Certainly, I think if you put him in left field given his physical traits, he could be a gold glove winning left fielder.

And also the arm strength is that's the place where it's the least issue, basically.

But then the other thing I will say is, yes, they have, I guess this is C,

they have a million corner outfielders, some of whom are going to already be pushed off the roster because of the log jam on that front.

But they're not right-handed hitting.

Correct, that's exactly right.

Like any married couple, we can finish each other.

That's exactly right.

And so what is the log jam of left fielders?

Well, it's Walner, it's Larnick, it's Rodin, it's Outman, it's Cody Clemens, fill in the blanks.

And even looking maybe mid-season, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, those are all left-handed hitters.

They vary significantly in terms of upside, in terms of defensive variability.

I'm not lumping them all in.

What you're missing there is a right-handed guy who you would want to pair with any of those left-handed guys in a very natural platoon.

And certainly someone like Larnick absolutely should be platooned at this point.

He's shown no ability to hit left-handed pitching, same with Walner, same with Outman, et cetera.

So there is kind of a utility to being able to use Keishel even in the short-term as an outfielder.

You know, Gabby Gonzalez is also right-handed, that could be a mid-season addition too.

But right now, the only right-handed out corner outfielders are like Austin Martin, who's not much of a hitter, really.

And maybe Eric Wagman, who it's not clear he's a hitter or a viable, you know, regular outfielder.

We haven't yet to see him in the outfield actor.

We were going to, we were told we were going to see him probably soon.

But yeah, that is, you know, if you are going to be pinch hitting in late innings for a left-handed hitter,

right, it's probably going to be in a corner outfield spot.

The truth is that Triss don't have that many right now.

In the regular lineup, they have three, you know, two or three regular left-handed hitters, right?

They've either got, they've got Larnick, they've got Walner, and maybe they've got Clemens, right?

The other ones are switch hitters or right-handed hitters, right?

And so, whoever you're going to have out coming off the bench needs to be able, if you want a substitute for anyone of them,

they have to be able to play one of the corner outfield spots, right?

That's most likely where they're going to end up pinch hitting four.

And so, yeah, that's natural reason.

Shelton has talked a fair amount about versatility and how important versatility is as he's trying to figure out what this roster looks like.

We spent the whole offseason saying this roster doesn't fit together terribly well with you,

but a lot of pieces on a puzzle that when we're done, we're pretty sure there's going to be some games.

Games, by the way, almost every move of any note that they've made, and that's a low bar,

has decreased the versatility of this roster.

That's right.

Bringing back Larnick, signing Josh Bell, bringing in Caratini, etc.

It's not adding versatility, and you need to be able to, if not,

it's not like we're saying Keisha is going to come off the bench and pinch hit,

although I mean, that could happen once in a while.

Sure.

It's that if Larnick is up with two guys on base in the eighth inning,

and the other team brings in a left handed reliever as they should to face him,

you don't want Larnick to hit in that spot, you want to pinch hit, let's say,

I mean, whoever off the bench, and then if it's easier to go put someone else at second base

and move Keisha to left field, then that at least brings a level of versatility

that allows you to at least pinch hit.

Now, even within that, though, two things that I would say is,

one, who are you pinching off the bench as a right handed bat?

If Keisha is starting, then your best right handed bat is either Austin Martin,

or Eric Wagman.

Yep, that's right.

So, okay, if it's Wagman, you're going to have to then take him out of the game,

put in your utility guy at second base, move Keisha to left field,

it's going to require some maneuvering to do that,

but at least Keisha being able to play the outfield gives you that option.

The other part I wonder about, though, is even in-game, or especially as a starting lineup,

let's say a tough lefty's on the mound, and you don't want Walner and Larnick in the outfield,

or even at D.H. against a tough lefty, okay, throw Keisha in left field,

that opens up second base to maybe put a different right handed bat.

The problem is, what right handed bat do they have that can play second base?

Garcia, Cridler, I mean, those are right handed bats.

Well, Austin Martin used to play there, but he's not working out with that second base.

Wagman is playing a couple of places in the infill, but ain't none of them on the middle.

It's what first and third, right?

Austin Martin, yeah, would be the most viable,

but you would just play Austin Martin in left field and leave Keisha at second base.

Exactly, right.

So, again, the versatility is theoretically good,

and I think down the road, it could help them in the future,

either in-game or just Keisha being an outfielder most of the time,

or bouncing back and forth, but they don't really have the other half of that

to fill in either at second base or to pinch hit,

which, again, speaks to just the kind of disjointed connectivity of this roster

that doesn't really exist.

But I do think you will see Keisha in the outfield.

I mean, hell, if he could back up center field, even.

Yeah, Keisha.

I mean, anything, right?

That might be too much to ask, but he could certainly be a good left fielder.

Play second, I think you might at some point see him play a little first base too,

which he did in the minors while he was protecting his injured elbow and all that.

So, any versatility, particularly for a young player,

for whom you're still trying to figure out where they best fit defensively,

it'd be one thing if Keisha had looked amazing at second base.

I'd be sitting here going, why are you even messing around with that?

Leave him at second base.

But Keisha did not look amazing at second base,

and the twins, whether it's Cole Pepper coming up,

who might end up at second base, or at least partly at second base,

or it's Brooks Lee having to maybe move off of shortstop,

going to either second base or third base.

Second base is going to be in flux,

unless Keisha shows a lot of improvement defensively.

And the point at which it's in flux, even if that's 2027, 2028, et cetera,

being able to bounce to the outfield, whether it's center or only left,

it is a viable path to keep his bat in the lineup.

Now, I'm hopeful, and I'm sure you are too,

that Keisha just looks a lot better at second base.

He's another year removed from the elbow surgery.

He's throwing without restrictions.

He's had a chance to kind of get comfortable there in the majors.

All I'm asking for him is to be decent there.

I'm not expecting a goal-glover there.

If he's decent there, the overall profile plays.

But if he continues to struggle with his arm especially,

Keisha comes to left, he doesn't hope the bat kind of fills up there.

Especially also, as we take him,

look at some of the post-type prospects and where they're going to be,

you know, four months from now.

That, you know, it might very well be that we do that.

You know what?

Culpepper's got to be up here.

He's going to be in shortstop.

Lee is hitting well enough.

Maybe we own him at second base.

Keisha's defense hasn't been that good at second base.

Let's have him in the outfield.

They want that sort of versatility available to them as they're doing this.

And frankly, you talked about where we are sort of in spring training.

Well, yeah, everybody got those first two weeks,

kind of got their feet underneath them, played some positions

that they're used to playing, et cetera.

Right now, what we are seeing from Shelton is,

a whole lot of mixing and matching and trying to see what he can do on there.

And that line up versus Puerto Rico, on Wednesday,

had, you know, road and starting in centerfield.

He'd never been there.

Criedler being in right field.

He hadn't been there.

We hadn't seen him in there for camp.

We'd seen our sea playing, you know, third base.

We saw, you know, gray playing shortstop.

And we've seen, you know, martin roaming around in centerfield, et cetera,

over time.

We've seen wagamin at third base.

We've seen it at first base.

A couple of different times over this last week.

Like, this is the time where Shelton, who is, by the way,

you know, new to this team and new to these players, right?

And getting a feel for what they can and cannot do,

putting them out there, I think, partly so he can get a read on it,

and partly so that they can get used to playing there.

So that, you know, if, you know,

something goofy happens in May and you've got to put, you know,

road and in centerfield.

You want road and to have played centerfield sometime this year,

even if it was just a spring training.

So.

Yeah, there's a lot of just trying to figure out what is

viably in a player's toolbox.

Right.

Not that you will need it.

I mean, credler in right field is the greatest towel about this, right?

Yeah.

Cridler's probably the best defensive player, shortstop they have in camp.

Right.

He might be the best defender they have in the organization.

You know, high, double.

Right.

Right.

He might be the best defender they have in the organization,

you know, high, double air above, let's say.

Right.

There's really no Senate, and he also can't hit.

So there is really no scenario whatsoever where you would, like,

willingly choose to play Ryan Cridler in right field.

Right.

But if there's a bunch of weird stuff that happens during a game,

and you end up with like our C in the game at shortstop,

but you need someone to play the outfield,

in at least play center field, left field, right field.

You can play anywhere.

And giving them six innings there, not only, you know,

gives them a little bit of repetition that he can, you know,

shake the dust off as a right fielder,

but it also then creates this position where you can try some,

like, Tristan Gray, played shortstop instead of Cridler.

That's right.

It's not that they think Cridler is a better shortstop,

it's that they don't care about a spring training game.

Right.

So they want to expose guys to as much as they can on that front.

Yeah, that game in particular had all three backup short stops.

Right.

Playing some place in the starting lineup.

Yeah.

You had Gray at shortstop.

You had RC at third base.

You had Cridler in right field.

You know, the interesting, I mean,

I think they are just trying to stretch these guys

and see where they can play and where they can apply.

It's always interesting when that happens to say,

look at where they're hitting in the lineup.

Because then you also get a sense of like,

well, which one do they think is the better hitter of these three, right?

And in that case, it was RC at six.

It was Gray, I think eight and Cridler nine,

which is about how I would think I would rank them, right?

So yeah, something like that.

Yeah.

We talked about Lee.

We got actually, if you want to hear a good discussion about Brooks Lee

and some of the changes he's made to his body

and also the work he's put in defensively

and also a bigger picture discussion of what he can be

and what, you know, he's realistic.

We did like 15, 20 minutes with Matthew Leach

about that on the Patreon side.

So go patreon.com slash glueman.

My takeaway from that is just that there's a lot riding on Lee

being better and quicker defensively

if only for like one more season at shortstop

to sort of place hold until Culpepper is ready.

But there's a possibility that Culpepper

isn't a viable shortstop himself

and has to move to second or third,

in which case maybe Lee gets two seasons until Marik Houston is ready.

Well, except even with Marik Houston,

who by all counts is a very, very good shortstop,

Marik Houston needs to show that he can be a majorly hitter

or even a double-a and triple-a hitter.

And so it's possible Lee just kind of keeps playing that spot

until someone knocks him off it, not unlike Jorge Polanco,

not so long ago, right?

Where no one thought Jorge Polanco was a good majorly shortstop.

But you went into every offseason being like,

well, I guess he's still the shortstop

and then he went in all-star.

He went in all-star, right?

And so I'm not, obviously, Jorge Polanco

would be a very good outcome for Brooks Lee offensively

and probably defensively.

But it's not something you need to plan out in advance.

And so it's possible that if Lee does show some improvement,

is quicker, has redistributed some of his weight

and just is moving better laterally.

Hips better left handed.

Well, this is the other thing.

He needs to improve both.

I mean, that's a tall order for a young player, especially.

There are so many guys for the twins

and this has been part of their problem

with the larynx and the walnuts and stuff,

where it's like, well, they were supposed to hit

because they're not much of fielders.

But then they don't really hit that much

and then they're just not good players.

Lee takes that to an extreme.

I thought he was passable at shortstop down the stretch

in a way that it's like, was he a disaster?

No.

He's going to be a good shortstop.

Also, no.

But the real issue is he just hasn't hit

like anybody thought he would go ahead.

I mean, that was the whole selling point of Brooks Lee

is that he was going to hit.

I mean, if he can hit, you know,

he doesn't necessarily have to stay at shortstop.

Maybe he can play some of the other positions

that we were trying to figure out here.

I mean, I think that's ultimately what we're going to.

Brooks Lee's career with the Minnesota twins

is going to be very much tied to what happens this year.

Can he show that he can at least hold down shortstop defensively

until either Culpepper or Houston or whoever knocks him off of it?

You know, because there's no need to move him

when the alternative is Ryan Kribler

or over the hill, RCA or something like that.

Sure.

But then beyond that,

I do still think what we saw of him at second base and third base

is pretty good.

Yeah.

I'm not saying he's going to win gold gloves there,

but it's a completely different story

than shortstop to me.

But the question there is,

you got Royce Lewis at third.

You got Keishel right now at second.

Culpepper could end up at one of those spots.

Right.

Not only is the bar higher for offense for hitting at those spots

and he's yet to reach that bar

and he needs to show that he can be that type of hitter.

But there's just a lot more competition.

The pool of candidates there is just always going to be deeper.

And so that's why I think there's so many guys

who are already there have already exceeded what he's ever done.

Right.

And so that's why I just think there's so much riding on Brooks

leave this season.

And there's the opportunity absolutely for him.

He's still young enough.

Sure.

It's not like he's played, you know,

a thousand games in the majors or something.

He's, you know,

has he shown some, you know, cracks in the armor

from what he was as a prospect?

Absolutely.

But that's what that's what prospect evaluation.

Right.

That's right.

That's why guys like me,

great triple A guys higher than single A guys.

Because we know weaknesses are going to be exposed

than why assume they aren't going to be.

So now we've seen some of the weaknesses with Lee.

Lateral movement.

Maybe not good enough to play shortstop.

You know, his plate discipline very lacking.

He's sort of giving away at bats.

But we've also seen with him.

He's looked pretty good at second.

He's looked pretty good at third.

His power has actually been surprisingly good.

Yep.

Better than expected.

And so it's not been all bad.

And so I don't think he's that far off from sort of

sort of grooving that he can be part of the twins core.

But also I don't know where that's going to be positionally.

So I think there's a lot riding on this season.

I think there's a bunch of guys who have a lot riding on this season.

But he is definitely he is definitely one of the key ones for sure.

He's one of the youngest and least experienced than the other guy.

You're right.

So I think there's a little less freezer burn.

There's a little less motivation to give up at that point.

And I also just think.

Whereas.

You know, if Larnick doesn't hit.

Well, he's already left field DH.

If Walner doesn't hit, he's already right field.

Like there's nowhere to go on the defense spectrum.

Right.

Brooks Lee can slide the second and be a real good second baseman for 10 years.

If he shows enough offense to make it worth the while to do that.

So I think that's why he's a little bit different.

You mentioned road in.

He's a good and camp.

It does seem and you've been there now a week after I left.

So maybe this has changed.

But it does seem like.

Shelton likes him.

Twins officials in general seem somewhat invested in him.

Not just because they believe in him, but because they traded for him.

In the Louis of Arlen trade last year and the whole premise of that was.

He's majorly ready.

He was the only guy that they immediately put in the majors after the deadline.

Now he played badly for two weeks and then had a season ending thumb injury.

So we see much out of him.

He's also 26.

He's a 320 hitter at triple A.

I don't know that there's that much to prove for him going back to St. Paul and playing there.

But also because of the one option, right.

He has options.

And so.

But now here's another complicating factor.

James Outman, who is out of options.

He has out of options week.

I mean, he looked terrible for the twins after the deadline.

Yeah.

And hasn't hit in the majors for the twins of the Dodgers for the last couple of seasons.

He's now showing something.

Yes he is.

With a couple home runs.

Yeah.

And he's getting plenty of playing time.

He's playing center.

He's playing the corners.

And so now you not only have Larnick, who seems superfluous.

You have Rodin, who seemingly should be playing left field.

But really can't because they have so many guys who could maybe back up center field.

But that's tricky because it's like is he only doing that a couple times a week.

Would he be better off at triple A.

And now Outman is trying to make a case.

And is out of options.

So he can't be sent to triple A.

And they also acquired him at the deadline last year too.

So it's never a bad thing to have depth.

But I just wish they had depth in a other areas besides just left.

Left handed outfield.

Yeah that's right.

Yeah I mean we talked most of the offseason about wondering whether Larnick was going to be traded.

We've talked most off seasons in the last five or six years about whether a left handed hitting corner outfielder was going to get traded.

They never are.

Right.

They said they just continue to be stacked up on this group.

Yeah I coming into camp.

My attitude was I kind of give it up on Outman.

You know I just hadn't seen enough to believe that this was going to the year they turned it around.

And as such I thought you know if they are despite despite the fact that if he doesn't make the team it means losing him if they can't.

Bring them if they can bring themselves to do that if they can bring themselves to give up on the guy they traded for.

Well then the roster starts to fit together a little bit better.

It's certainly done to fit very well together of Outman is on that roster.

But now that Outman is actually doing some stuff.

Well that's a little different story right.

Well here's another here by the way here's one other angle that you sort of mentioned.

The risk of an out of options player is that if they're not on that all that means is they can no longer just be seamlessly sent to triple A back and forth.

Right.

And so if they're not on the opening day roster they have to either be traded placed on waivers where a team can just claim them for nothing in return or released.

And without men like you said the risk is well we doesn't make the opening day roster is a backup outfielder you lose them for nothing.

But I had been of the mind and I have a similar opinion of Alex Jackson the third catcher who's due 1.3 million and is also I think out of options.

Yeah I think you're right.

Would you lose them?

Would they even be claimed off waivers?

Right.

And also I mirrored your thoughts on Outman during the off season which is do we care if we do lose them?

Right.

But now you know he might pass through waivers and you can just send him to triple A and he's triple A depth which is a great outcome for that you know relatively.

Except now he's playing well and showing something in spring training and weirdly that means you're less able to pass him through waivers on claimed.

So I mean that the bench situation beyond for those last two bench spots that the non backup shortstop non backup catcher bench spots has become increasingly hazy as opposed to more clear.

I think over this in part because we're just seeing some good performances from some of the guys that are there.

I you know I'm still of the opinion that I think Austin Martin has to be on this roster just because he's got a lot he brings on he's brings the right handed bat and he brings the you know pet potential backup center field stuff etc.

But if James Outman is also on this roster well then I'm not sure that Austin Martin necessarily is the fit but I don't know we'll see.

Yeah well I mean it's I don't really see how rodin and outman can both be on the same way.

Martin is right handed but he does a lot of the same things and then larnic is you know overlapping with the left handed versions of these guys so yeah it is weird.

You know is this and this is all assuming that a everybody stays healthy and be everybody stays on the roster that there's no trades and we've seen the twins make trades on the night before opening day so you never know what some of these guys what might happen.

I will say this one outman if they decide they can't fit him on the roster he just doesn't fit and he's had a decent spring.

You know you could potentially move him to somebody that you know get something in return for him as opposed to putting him in action.

I mean you might get cash considerations or something but before we talk about some pitching stuff let's talk about our last couple of sponsors here.

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no sign or not you can use it for all your fantasy baseball needs

let's talk a little bit about pitching

you mentioned Bailey Ober we'll get into that on Monday after we actually see him

I agree with you completely that he's extremely important to this team

and sort of keeping the foundation from crumbling further

and we've also did discover this week a little bit about the mystery has sort of been what's been going on

why is he not in these games right and the answer was always why he's working on his mechanics

he's working on his mechanics I think you know that is also code for well he didn't wasn't showing the velocity

he expected to be having especially because he had worked on you know trying to reestablish things throughout the

offseason and he says he was throwing 90 miles per hour in January and then you know

took the break just before coming to camp and came to camp and suddenly things weren't

quote you know sinking up correctly things weren't things weren't exploding out of his hand the way he expected

so I think what this did is give him you know they gave him a couple more weeks in non-game situations

where you know you get to control the environment a little bit you know you know how many pitches you're going to throw

now you know that that live BP that he had that live banding practice was against twins hitters

it wasn't just you know throwing to a catcher it wasn't a bulldoin it again John

people are going to see him pitch tonight you don't have to tell what he is I agree with you on all that

but I'm just going to explain how we got to this point and this is why that why the tonight's game stands out

because we see he's he's gone through the bullpen session he's gone through the live BP session

now we're going to see him in the game and now we get to actually see what those velocity readings are

that have been a mystery to us now John you know that we can see live BP velocities

it's on the scoreboard the scoreboard on over on field four no but I'm yes

but that's before not about Bailey over where it's like the mystery yeah but they don't they haven't

put Bailey over and on these ones and they haven't put Joe Ryan and though they're putting him over for

this is where you use your journalistic chops John and mosey on over to someone with a radar gun

and say what are we looking at here they've got the they've got the dude with the yeah they've got the dude

with the the right there behind the things right you don't even have to have a conversation

you just peek over someone shoulder there see that nobody is throwing in a modern

spring training environment whether it's on the main field whether it's in a game

whether it's on a backfield without you know thousands of dollars of technology

tracking their every move and span and stuff so the key is just be a nosy

that's the whole thing I believe you have it in you to be that nosy

there is a fence between me and them that's part of the problem

that just means you impress them with your climbing skills that's how you charm them

the 58 year old climbing skills I thought he'd be dead but look at he climbed that whole fence

58 years of climbing fences I'm pretty good at it by now

well I have stories from you about you climbing trees at Carlton's

how did that end up your life

so one other thing we talked with Matthew quite a bit about

Matthew Leach on Patreon was how the loss of Lopez and at least the temporary

loss of Festa from the rotation mix has really sort of washed away the whole

oh they have so many starters that maybe how many will they send a trip

boy how many will they convert to the bullpen the answer now is they have

basically six starters for five spots and they need to go three more weeks

without an injury right they might just have five starters for five spots

or worse and so now I feel like a it's very unlikely any of those starters

get converted to the bullpen for opening day because you need a six starter

on call you'd like to have six seven starters on call and so that would seemingly

mean to me whoever doesn't get one of the five opening day rotation spots

the six guy the odd man out will go to triple A and keep pitching every

fifth day keep starting keep stretched out and basically just be one call

away for literally from joining the bullpen and so then when you start to do

the math in that context where there's really only you know there's six people

and there's five spots you're playing musical chairs at that point

the path of least resistance from a age experience that sort of thing

is to just send make able to triple A he's younger than the rest of the guys

you know seeming with Richardson's heavy Matthews

Taj Bradley obviously Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are in a different category

probably he's younger than all those guys not a lot but he is younger he has

less major league experience than them he has 39 innings you know

assuming with Richardson's got 250 innings in the majors Taj Bradley's got

damn near 400 innings in the majors even Zebes got almost I think a hundred

and some innings in the majors and he has an option remaining and you just

acquired him six months ago so it's not like he spent three years in St. Paul

so I do think the path of least resistance would be you know you have Ryan

and Ober as your veterans you have Taj Bradley Simon Woods Richardson

and Zebes Matthews as your three four five in some order it doesn't really matter

and then you send able as the sixth guy the odd man out to triple A go you know

shove against triple A hitters which you've done before I don't think he has

to prove there but it's more just keeping him ready to jump in now the

one monkey wrench here is Mick Abel's look pretty affin good here early in

came up and you know that is what it is but if he has a couple more very

impressive outings that's not surprising in the sense that that's why they

traded for him the upside is not in doubt with Mick Abel but as he has more

impressive outings and he consistently throw strikes that suggests they've

done some good work with him mechanically and in terms of kind of harnessing

his raw stuff because control has been a big problem for him I wonder assuming

everyone stays healthy how impressive would he have to be over the next you

know 15 to 20 days for them to not send him to triple A and not take the easiest

route where you have your five in the rotation you have able as your sixth

and you move forward with that yeah I don't know the answer to that question

I know I think we will see him again tomorrow it's about the next time

he should be coming up that will be another road game and those road

games are especially valuable because you're generally facing a better

lineup right so we've seen Abel he mode right through the lineup that he saw

here but versus the raise earlier this week but that was also a split squad

road lineup for it was not not even maybe not even a triple A quality lineup

but the outing before that was in Detroit facing basically they're starting

lineup and he was dominant in that outing as well really good in that outing

as well we'll see what he what he ends up facing if he gets up on the road

tomorrow at Baltimore I mean here's I just want to say one thing it is

probably sounds insane how people who cover spring trainings talk about the

road sites because we'll be like oh he was in Detroit it's all Florida

Detroit Florida Boston is across the street basically from but yeah

that's how you go oh I'm not going to Pittsburgh but yet but yet for

pitchers generally they face a better lineup when they're on the road right

that's I just do want to comment from someone going they weren't in Detroit

they're in Florida yeah so our brains are mush I have trouble keeping

track of what to add white stadium where is that is that I don't even

remember where where that isn't for the where the Baltimore place by

any way the Brainson now Brainsons Pittsburgh anyway you know we kind

of tried to sort of create a hierarchy of you know likelihood of making

this rotation right and I think we probably put him and Zebi at the

lower end of that likelihood to make that rotation as opposed to Bradley

and Woods Richardson in part because those two just have had more innings

and more experience and you know frankly more success at a better track record

at this point I mean here's the thing Zebi's look great too you know so I

mean at some point you you can say well how good does he have to look well

you at the very least he has to probably look a lot better than you

know somebody else and so it's not it's not a purely based on just his

performance if the other guys are you know looking really good too I'm

not sure that it's going to matter how much how dominant able

looks in this they just might not be room and I have no problem with that I

think so much is made and we're guilty of this too of the opening day

roster of you know who's the fifth starter the reality is I think we've

seen pretty much every year past three four or five years with the twins

and this is true of most teams by the end of April sometimes held by the

first week in April right the six starters in the rotation because

somebody's hurt somebody's underperforming you know especially the twins

I don't think are that unique they do not treat the opening day roster as being

set in stone I mean I would put the over under on days before somebody is

removed from the 26 man roster as like three like basically after their first

series which is in Baltimore I would probably bet that there's some

level of you know roster move and so it's not that big of a deal if Mick

Abel has to go to AAA for what I would guess would be at most a month before

he's needed right because the reality is if it's a month before he's needed

that's actually sort of a good thing because that means the rest of the

rotation is somewhat healthy so it's not a bad thing and ultimately if you

want the team to succeed at all this year you are going to need six seven

eight probably ten starting pictures now if you're mostly just invested in

the development of David Arab Mick Abel then maybe you say it's better for him

to be in the majors but I also make an argument if they've changed

from things mechanically you want him to sort of get some momentum going and

then join the rotation so I have no problem with that I think it's probably

we talk about it because it's a you know it's a battle for a roster spot and

it is important I think this is one of the most important things like that

group of starters succeeding or failing this year is just massively

important but I don't think it's if you're a Mick Abel fan I don't think you

should be that discouraged at all really if he starts the year in AAA.

We also talk about it as a roster as a battle for a roster spot because it's

a fairly defined battle for a roster spot right the other roster spots which

are also battles are so much less on so much less defined the bullpen is I

don't have any idea what that roster battle looks like right now there I know

there's eight spots and we can probably name five of them something like that

but beyond that it's a little bit of a grab bag as to what is going to end up

being on that and even even the outfield spots that we already just dedicate

dedicate some time to is sort of like well we think you know these three guys are

competing for one spot and then I don't know they're going to mix and match two

other spots like I don't know so this one is easier to talk about and that's

probably one of the reasons we talk about it we fall into that trap but yeah

it's not a bad thing if if if any of those guys end up starting the year at

triple A and they have that depth so on the bullpen one development there

Liam Hendrix finally got into a game a couple days ago through 93 94 maybe

topped out at 95 something which is you know it's down for more he was at his

peak but that's within a mile or two of where he's been the last two or three

years now I would also note he hasn't pitched well or state healthy for the last

two or three years when he was really thriving and making all star teams

as a closer he was throwing 97 98 but he's also 37 years old so even if

without the injury component he'd probably be you know lesser velocity now I

think if he's at this level of velocity or maybe you know another little

bump from that two weeks from now I have no doubt he will be on this roster if

he is healthy if he is reasonably healthy like there's no big issue no set

back and he's throwing 94 he will absolutely make this team and I might even

say he'd be the closer when we talked to him a couple days ago you know his

basic response was you know provided I feel good tomorrow after that outing

yeah he's feeling pretty good about where he is and indications are he felt

fine because he's again probably pitching again tonight three days later so I

think I think that's a pretty good sign that they've got faith in at least in his

health you're right he would probably prefer to be he said you know

ultimately he'd like his velocity to be up to like 97 98 something like that

but just to have hit 93 94 consistently and to have touched 95 not a bad

place for him to be at this point and most importantly with him he's doing it

without his arm hurting so you know that's a that's a good sign on the

bullpen overall it's so funny how our thinking on the bullpen is shifted

from the beginning of the offseason the beginning of the offseason it was

like they need so much bullpen help that might be the biggest thing they need to

pursue during the offseason whether it's free agency whether it's trade whether

it's converting starting pictures to the bullpen they absolutely need and then

they just didn't right yeah and so then late in the game here as spring

training was getting underway you know they had signed Taylor Rogers they bring

in shape and they make a small trade for bond from the left side they had a

bunch of NRI type of guys and then they signed Liam Hendrix we just talked

about too I still think the bullpen is woefully short that's just

subjectively how I do it but it's no longer short on like bodies like

right like you can if anything I think thunderburg might be in danger of

being sent triple A I agree and I think they like we just talked about

they're not even converting starters to the bullpen anymore at this point

but here's the other thing about that as I look at the bullpen one of the

things we were like okay well they're gonna try to convert a zebby to the

bullpen let's say or a festive to the bullpen or a Marco Raya to the bullpen

or you know Connor pre-lip some of these young starters and one of the things

early on in the offseason before they had done anything we're like well you

know wouldn't hurt them to have a Taylor Rogers type or Liam Hendrix type to

both provide a veteran arm but also a veteran presence to show these guys

how to be relievers to sort of be a mentor for these guys but then they went so

far in that direction the bullpen is built out of the old guys now right

there aren't even guys to know there are no mentees to have no you're like

even I don't know cold sands is like 28 years old like he's the youngest guy

in that group and so it is very weird spot to be in where it's both not in

my mind not a good bullpen it's filled with a but it's also filled with a

bunch of like one year flyer old guys yeah where it's just I mean incredible

amount of experience but also there is no kind of clubhouse dynamic mentorship

dynamic maybe at midseason you bring pre-lip up and he is attached that they

hip to Taylor Rogers or something like that but like there are no young guys to

be shepherded into their life in the bullpen by these old guys you just have

old guys yeah and it's a it's a weird place to be I think I thought we would

maybe see a bullpen where we had you know a couple of veterans and then a lot

of young arms that were getting ready and we're hoping that one or two of

them would break through and then suddenly we've got some high leverage arms

in our bullpen and I don't really see that being the case anymore for

whatever happened right I do think I just said we don't have a great view

of the bullpen I think we've got six names that we think are going to be in

the bullpen of the eight names right we've got to from the right side we've got

Copa and we've got Sands Sands right and I think we've got Hendrix now right and

from the left side I think we've got the three lefties and I'm not including

Thunderbrook in there we've got the Rogers and we've got Banda and we've got

Chafen right now I think those last two spots you know I I think I agree

that I think Thunderbrook is probably in danger he's done although if he

continues if they really think he can actually get some righties out maybe

he ends up as sort of the you know the the swing guy the eighth guy in the

bullpen that ends up eating some innings or something like that you

cannot have four mediocre lefties in a bullpen yeah but you really can't

have it is like three mediocre lefties that are all going to be used

strictly for lefties you know what I mean that's what makes them mediocre

that's what I'm saying you can have four lefties if two of them can pitch the

ninth inning no matter the matchups you cannot play matchups with four

different lefties over the course of 162 games there just aren't that many

opportunities I would probably argue and I'm not even that big of a

Thunderbrook believer at this point right I feel like there was a place for

a Chafen type of pickup if you didn't already have a 35-year-old

Rogers and a 35-year-old Banda yeah but he is so like repetitive at that

point that I almost would be like what is Chafen providing for this team that

Rogers and or Banda aren't providing whereas Thunderbrook could at least give

you something that for the future if he has a good season he could be around

for next year that's kind of my point why I think Thunderbrook can be in the

team though right is that the the odd person out is the three guys who we have to

use against lefties right and Thunderbrook who might have a little more utility

than that go a little longer can face right handers a little better might

have some reason to be in there and maybe the I think the way they could

end up looking at it is Rogers is good enough to face either side which I

think is a stretch but he used to be right exactly right used to be right

the other two are mostly lefty specialists and then Thunderbrook is your

swing you know your swing man essentially down you know that

and innings eater down there what he does he doesn't throw three innings

that's another issue is you need somebody to throw bulk innings here

especially because we've also got I think John Klein kind of might fit on that

piece too I think those six guys are in and then I don't know who seven and

eight are right now and I don't and I think you could give me six

names and I'd be like yeah I don't know is it Adams is it Klein is it

Thunderbrook is it Orza who I haven't even or Z or Z sorry or Kent

who they just picked up like I don't really have any I don't really

have a good sense of what those last two it's like it's not going to be

Klein on the opening day roster I don't think but I think so yeah I

mean you said we have a good view and what you meant was we have a

good handle on this right it is not a good view like you know what I mean

it's like someone invites you over to the house they open the

the drapes they go isn't it a lovely view it's just a brick wall it's

like well yeah I guess I understand what I'm seeing I just

you have a full look at this wall yeah it's just a dirty brick wall

basically um says a guy who lives over a parking lot by the way

but I'm not one that I've seen that view yeah it's a great view

theoretically of a parking lot yeah it's amazing last couple

things and we'll we'll shut up here we mentioned Walker Jenkins

diagnosed with a strain hamstring they're saying it's on the

minor side but with two or three like weeks left of spring

training yeah he's not going to appear in games so they sent him

officially to minor league camp he won't be able to play in minor league

camp for a while but that's why if people are like whoa they sent

down Walker Jenkins in the first round of real cuts

it's awful yeah I mean it's they had previously sent

Cantorino and Corey Lewis because they're hurt you know Jenkins

was not going to be in competition for a roster spot obviously

on opening day but I do think much like Emmanuel Rodriguez

and Caitlin Culpepper who were not sent down in that first

group of cuts probably if he were healthy he might have held on

for a little bit longer but it's ultimately it's pretty meaningless

for a guy in that situation because the truth is if they

want him to play in major league spring training games they can

just bring him over from minor league camp and he can play

there's no like restrictive nature to that it's more

you start to pair down the clubhouse you start to kind of

make it feel more like a competition as opposed to having

guys in the clubhouse who are not realistically fighting

for opening day jobs and that's kind of part of the

the pairing down process of spring training I think the primary

I think the primary benefactor of that right now is Hendry Mendez

Hendry Mendez is getting a lot of time in that same

outfield with Emma Rodriguez and Gabrielle Gonzalez right

now and Mendez was probably slated to move up to AAA

this year after the numbers he put up a double A both

with the fillet or yeah fillies right and then with the

twins and you know when where it hurts Jenkins in terms

of not being able to play I mean obviously he's you know

he's hurt so he probably wasn't going to be playing anyway

but where it hurts is like a lot of those guys will go on the

road and they will play in things you know six or six

seven eight nine or seven eight nine on the road to fill

in for you know whoever the all the different guys that

are battling for the front bench spot this this second

or this first week of March and the second release of

players to minor league camp or assignment of my players

to minor league camp is often sort of like prospects we

wanted to take a look at and now we are done taking a look

at them and we got to get serious about our roster and one

of the more interesting things about this spring training

camp is a lot of those prospects are triple A ready

and then they are already they want to continue to keep

getting a look and they want to keep getting getting getting

getting them experience facing you know some of the

better players because this is a they're going to

potentially be in the majors later this year and so you

know even though they are top prospects they were not

sent down because they just they are on the cusp of

making the team or being called up to the majors and so

and that doesn't mean that doesn't mean by the way that

they're sticking around that they've got any chance of

making the opening day roster that's not what I'm saying

what I'm saying is that everybody wants to continue to

get a look at them and they want to continue giving those

people those players experience versus high level

competition so they're all getting to stay in spring training

for at least a couple of weeks or so I would probably

expect whenever the next round of cuts me called pepper

will probably be included in that the other thing is that

triple A spring training games are a thing too right those

those will start up more often and then you're going to

want your triple A guys just playing against triple A

competition at that point speaking let's we can finish

on this speaking of prospects and all that so MLB

dot com put out there farm system rankings and so

they are the last of what I would say is six prominent

national outlets who do that sort of thing and so I thought

it was interesting to compare and contrast now the six

outlets so I'll read those let me find them to roll them

down okay so here's the twins ranking and again this

is farm system rankings and keep in mind in the twins

case Lucie show is no longer eligible for these because

you should not consider prospect make able is not

eligible for them let alone you know the Brooks

Lisa the world and all that sort of festive Matthews

Bradley none of these guys are included it's true

prospects so of this what I would consider the six major

national outlets ESPN ranked the twins eighth out of

thirty teams can baseball prospectus ranked them eighth

out of thirty MLB dot com which also goes by MLB pipeline

ranked them ninth out of thirty just came out yesterday

fan graphs has them number twelve out of thirty

baseball America which has been and still is the most

prominent product outlet has them number twelve out of

thirty and so you would say they're okay there's five

very prominent places they're between number eight and

number twelve so that seems about right here I think when

we talked about my list earlier I said they're around the

ten range so I think that's about right then you have

which is a great place but doesn't think is highly

about the Minnesota twins farm system and ranks them twenty

first out of thirty and when I posted these on Twitter

yesterday I had a bunch of people go man why do you hate

the twins I'm the athletic right I am the twins

writer at the athletic I am not our national prospect

writer slash ranker that is Keith law and so that

ranking is just Keith laws personal opinion and I'm

not saying just like the diminution and if you if

you go look at I think it was about a month ago he

pulled out his farm system rankings and it started

with actually let me find a flinic farm system here

we go I'm going to just read it to you because I think

this will answer a lot of questions people have he has

a blurb on every team basically you know paragraph

or two on every year so twins are ranked twenty

first here is how his blurb on the twins farm system

begins Keith law quote the twins would be much

higher if they could just keep their best guys healthy

now that's impossible to disagree with right Jenkins

is hurt now again and it's been hurt manual Rodriguez

has been hurt Connor pre-lip has been hurt on and on

and on and on and even guys they've graduated to the majors

have almost all gotten easier well prospects and so

if there is a sense of the twins struggle to keep

their guys healthy whether through something they're

doing or not doing or just pure bad luck

until they can show that they can advance these guys

to the majors like Jenkins being a prime example

without constant you know muscle strains and tears

and all that stuff then I do think it's not that unreasonable

to view them let's say if you viewed them as the

twelfth best just on talent which is in line with the other ones

but you knock them down a half dozen spots or so

because of the health factor now with that said

I certainly think they have better than the twenty

ranked farm system but they don't if you know

four of their five top guys can't stay healthy

so I know I got a lot of questions about that

in general though you know this is I would say

so my I don't contribute to the overall farm system rankings

my I cover the twins prospects

so I write my annual article I rank them all that

I don't know as much as I once did about other farm systems

because I used to write about national stuff for other places

but it's my sense that I generally agree with that

eight to twelve range that they're you know

if they're top ten but not you know top five type of thing

but I do think the thing you mentioned earlier

and something we've talked quite a bit about

we talked to Derek Shelton about this on the Patreon show

there is a in my view especially how I like to evaluate prospects

there is a like bonus where I would consider

a twelfth ranked farm system better or worse

based on how many of those guys are near the majors

because you could be a number ten farm system

and have no guys at AAA

it's just all low miners high upside boomer bust

you know you're hoping you hit on a couple of them

but a couple of them might wash out

but you can also be a top ten farm system

where you just have all your guys at AAA

and that's much closer to what the twins have

like you were just talking about or we were talking about

sure with the later cuts and stuff

so I would tend to view them more favorably than that

if the consensus is that they're in that ten to twelve range

I would probably say in my mind they're probably maybe in the eight to ten range

you know small difference or whatever

but I mean I do think that is really the only

there's a lot of bad crap looming over this season

right in terms of ownership, fan morale,

the roster, Bucksdon, the trade deadline

you know all of it we've you know we talk about it

one of the only good things

but it is a big good thing is

no matter how bad this season gets

and no matter how much they trade off

and no matter what

I do think by the end of this season

you're going to get a pretty decent look

at a lot of young guys

who can be part of the next good twins team

if things go well

and if nothing else can set themselves up

to be on the opening the roster in 2027

so that this time next year

we're talking about things building up

instead of maybe

tearing down again you know what I mean

I'm probably not as optimistic as you are on that pretty

just because we've seen waves

maybe not as big of a wave

but smaller waves like this sort of go through

and what we've seen is them sort of

sort of stall out at this level

if anything when I say

mostly what I'm going to become optimistic

is can we see

that level of

prospect which I think is a pretty

as a higher level of prospect

probably than we've seen sort of that

come through in these previous

waves hit at the same time

that the you know

the guys that have stalled out

also figure out a couple of things

and I don't mean like

we're going to go four for four on

Lewis and Lee and Walner

and Larnick all figuring things out

but we get two of those guys

and we get two of the other guys

and so on and maybe

I have gotten to the point

now where I can't

see these prospects come up

and expect them to

be very good for their first

two plus years

I'm not saying they're going to come up and be impact players

I mean that's kind of what we're talking about

like the trade deadline sell off

I guess what I'm saying is

and I agree with you I mean they're

recent track record of developing

pro turning prospects into good major

leagueers has been pretty bad

what you're describing is kind of like what we saw in 2023

where you had the

end of the core group that had been there

and then you added Royce Lewis

Matt Walner and Eddie Julian

and they provided a boost and got you to the playoffs

and all that I'm not even saying I'm

counting on the prospects

performing well all I'm saying

is no matter how bad this gets

because if it does get really bad

a lot of those existing major

leagueers are just not going to be

part of the picture but then can you start to

get these together a lineup that is

you know you got

Jenkins Rodriguez

Gonzalez let's say even if you trade

Bucston that could be your outfield

you got maybe Brooks Lee at some

more than shortstop you got Kaelin

Culpepper you got Luke Keishel

somewhere I mean you could have a second

based shortstop third base of those

three guys like I'm not saying it will be

immediately good but I'm saying there is

at least the idea of because I feel

like right now part of the reason

like I'm just as enthusiastic about this

team one is just a talent deficit

but the other is a feeling that

they're not moving in either

direction right now right

like they're just trying to sort of

and this the bullpen is a great example of

this I think were they're just like

sort of place holding until they can

figure out if this season is going to be

okay or really bad yeah

right and it was a lot of one year veterans

that are just exactly where and

maybe it is really bad but then I

feel like at least down the stretch this year and at this time next year you can start to go

Well, okay, now the question, it's not that I'm certain all these young guys are going to come up and immediately build a contending lineup or anything, but at least you can start to go, okay, now we're trying to build something and maybe the blocks you're using the build are deficient and you're just end up building something that's not that good, which is kind of what you're saying, but like I do feel it is limiting from like a fan standpoint to not even be sure that even if the team is sort of okay this year that they're building towards anything.

Because there is a sense that like there's still a few more things to send out before you kind of commit to what is going to be a rebuild and that's it's partly because they just refuse to say the word rebuild, which I think adds to kind of what I'm talking about.

Well, and then they're not really acting like they're like a full rebuilding that they end up trading away, you know, Orion and a bit over and a Jeffers and God forbid a buckstent will then right then it's then there's no doesn't matter what you call it.

I will say this about both this discussion and the discussion we had earlier about when the prospects come up, you know, how much impact will they have in the after the trade deadline, et cetera.

It does feel like a lot of this season is going to be sort of sorting through things, you know, I thought I expected that in spring training and I'm seeing a little bit of that I it's clear that Shelton is trying to sort through what is bench is going to look like what the bullpen is going to look like it's even what the rotation is going to look like given the the injuries that they've had right, but I feel like that is going to be a constant struggle or a constant challenge this year to trying to figure out okay, so and so is doing well.

Well, so and so triple is doing really well, so and so here's not doing well, you know, how are we going to balance these things how much faith do we have how much more do we want to invest in this level versus that level and and how much do you want to do that investment in the middle of a, you know, potentially competitive

a central which where nobody is necessarily going to be running away with it, you know, it feels like there's going to be this is going to be of all the different twin seasons we've had this is going to be the season of gray, you know, there's going to be so many gray areas that we're going to be trying to figure out which way they should go on this thing and they're going to be doing it with a nude, you know, new head of baseball ops, a new owner and a new manager as well, so I agree with all that.

I also it's funny to me that you're like i'm not really optimistic about these young guys, but then in the scenario you just laid out it was what do they do if the existing guys are good and the guys at triple maybe maybe right now it's like what's the reason otherwise there's not really a shade of gray there right if the guy up here stinks and the guy in triple is great they did there's no there's no question right but there is a problem if they're both stink or the guy up here's not the guy down there is

you know, treading water I think the more likely thing with the larynx and the Walnors and those type of guys maybe even Royce Lewis is what do they do if the majorly guys are just kind of okay right a 108 OPS plus right you know Walnors hitting 240 with some power larynx hitting 260 with less power Royce Lewis has been sort of healthy but still dinged up and he's hitting 270 with 12 homeers or something like that

and you know let's say the triple a guys some of them are doing really well some are doing okay whatever like it's it's easy if the triple a guys are just crushing it to be like all right well make room here we go new era it's a lot more difficult if either the majorly guys are putting up a fight in that regard or if you know

Kaelin called members at triple and he's hitting 250 right yeah then it's like well okay we could use him at third base second made shortstop whatever and you know it's time to see what he can do but also is that doing him a disservice or you know injuries

obviously with Jenkins and Rodriguez and stuff but I guess I think the most likely scenario is collectively most of the existing majorly guys especially on the lineup side are just doing sort of okay

and not well enough from a like let's use larynx as the example to where you go oh he's going to be on 2027 to right and then I think it's like all right when do we start to transition this and it's not like there needs to be an NHL style shift change

right so like they have to call up Jenkins Gonzalez Rodriguez and cope up around the same day or anything right that'd be fun that'd be a fun uber from say Paul from lower town over to

sure feel there whatever it can be a gradual thing but and I would also put Keishel in that group to like Keishel's different and that he's no longer a prospect but I mean we haven't seen that much of Luke Keishel and we also haven't seen Luke Keishel healthy

yeah and so the fact that he's been as impressive as he is at least offensively in terms of base running you know if you add him to the group of Jenkins Rodriguez

Cole Pepper and Gonzalez and you had Luke Keishel then you have five lineup spots now you got to figure out where they're playing right and maybe Brooks Lee who I would view as probably the most likely to cement himself as a future core guy

just based on his age and years of team control that could be a sixth guy at that point and if Buckston sticks around then you got seven guys then you just figure out catcher and like dh or something and again I'm not saying 2027 they're going to set the world on fire

but to me it just seems important to at least be able to convey realistic view to the fan base of they're at least building something forward now instead of just sort of trying to tread water

yeah that is going to be a lot of the season and that can certainly go bad like you've said if it goes bad you know if the prospects are hurting the majorly guys are struggling and then it's like okay now are we just rebuilding for three years down the road

like what is the possibility there but all right that's enough talk from us john's got to go watch Bailey over so we can talk about him Monday on the patreon side thank you to our sponsors and especially obviously to our presenting sponsor blackstack go check them out great place to drink beer or go find them on the shelves of your local liquor stores blackstack good stuff alcoholic non alcohol a disease IPA anything you could want THC stuff too

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