New Google Model Ranked ‘No. 1 LLM’, But There’s a Problem

A new and mysterious Gemini model appears at the top of the leaderboard, but is that the full story? I dig behind the headline to show you some anti-climactic results, give some context with leaks in the last 48 hours of diminishing returns to scaling, and add the response of Altman, OpenAI and co. The future is about to look a lot stranger...


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‘There is no wall’: https://x.com/sama/status/1856941766915641580

https://x.com/vedantmisra/status/1857148554105544708

Gemini Ranking: https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard

API not yet up: https://x.com/OfficialLoganK/status/1857106844805681153

‘Just Die Chat’: https://x.com/koltregaskes/status/1856754648146653428

Google CEO tweet: https://x.com/sundarpichai/status/1857114106928718329

Sutskever Quote: https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-rivals-seek-new-path-smarter-ai-current-methods-hit-limitations-2024-11-11/

Another OpenAI Staffer Leaves: https://x.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1856843040427839804

Bloomberg Report: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai?s=09

Noam Brown on what OpenAI Researchers Believe: https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1855037689533178289

Clive Chan: https://x.com/itsclivetime/status/1855704120495329667

Chollet Responds to Altman: https://x.com/fchollet/status/1857060079586975852

https://x.com/sama/status/1856940152460869718

Altman Emails: https://x.com/TechEmails/status/1857285960997712356

Change of Heart: https://sd11.senate.ca.gov/news/senator-wiener-responds-openai-opposition-sb-1047

Amodei on ‘Empirical Regularities’: https://lexfridman.com/dario-amodei-transcript/

Verge Report: https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/25/24279600/google-next-gemini-ai-model-openai-december

OpenAI Agents in January: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-nears-launch-of-ai-agents-to-automate-tasks-for-users?srnd=phx-ai