My pre-Sunshine Swing ATP Top 10

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2:03a snapshot of where things stand at the top of the men's tennis world entering the month of March. Why? Do I find this valuable exercise? Well, of course, March features a pivotal stretch on the tennis calendar. It's time for the Sunshine Swing to begin 1,000-level action in Indian Well Schedule to kick off this week. Of course, we follow that by directly heading to my for another 1,000-level event. We're going to get to see every top player in the world in action over the course of the next month. Hopefully, we'll be treated to battles that we'll eventually consider for match of the year when the time is appropriate. Earlier today, of course, to help get all of you tennis fans prepared for the action. I offered my thoughts on another busy championship Sunday in the tennis world. Also offered my thoughts on where things currently stand at the top of the women's tennis world to find that content. All you got to do is scroll down on your mini-break podcast feed. By the way, make sure you're subscribed to this podcast, as of course, we'll have daily recaps of everything that goes down in Indian Welles.

3:06I'm going to have a front row seat to a lot of that action, as, of course, I fly out tomorrow to Santa Monica to be on the call for our friends at tennis channel for early round Indian Welles action. Why is that relevant? Well, of course, tomorrow, I'm hoping to have time to record two more mini-break podcast episodes to help preview the impending Sunshine Swing, who are the biggest stock-up, stock-down movers of the second month of the season. Again, try to feature players on those two podcasts, not only competing and finding success at the top of the tennis world, but look, before you can get to a quarter finals, a semi-finals, a championship match. You've got to get through round one, you've got to get through round two, round three, who are the players to keep an eye out for over the course of the next month? Want to try and tackle that sort of topic on tomorrow's episodes? If I don't, it will be because something went wrong with my flight and look, it's quite the journey from Atlanta to Los Angeles. If you get some hours back over the course of that journey, so I am still hoping to find time to be able to do that for all of you tennis fans. If I can't squeeze both episodes in tomorrow, certainly we'll have them both out to you

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5:10All right, let's break down. Again, sunshine, pre-sundshine swing, ATP top 10. Where do things currently stand at the top of the men's tennis world world? Just a reminder, your overview of what we saw in the month of February, no, not as rigorous of a schedule for the men as certainly it was for the women where you had 2,000 level events. But you did get to see Alcaraz, you saw everyone but Jokovic who is Novak Jokovic and doesn't need to compete in the second month of the season any longer and in injured Lorenzo Musetti. Other than those two, you saw every top player in the world in action somewhere, usually you got to see them all play multiple matches. If not multiple events over the course of that second month of the season, obviously you had a notable Yonic center loss or maybe more properly framed. You had a notable Jakub Menshik victory over Yonic center so he can add a win over center

6:11to his resume, which already included a win in a 1,000 level final over Novak Jokovic. You had the return of form for Felix Osir, who remind all of us how dominant of force he is indoors, demon hour, captures a 500 level title, Taylor Fritz playing through what seemed like an injured riddle, opening month, plays Dallas, plays Delray during the course of February, Tommy Paul returning to form, Daniel Medvedev picks up his second title in a city ever. By the way, you had the return of guys like Jack Draper, Arthur Fees, who I thought looked pretty good in their returns after six plus month layoffs you had, a first taste by the way of Clay Court tennis, down in South America, Darderi making a final, winning a title, making a semi final, winning a 500 level title, Sarundalo playing better ball as he's got a huge span of points about to, he's going to have to defend over the course of the next

7:11two months as of course you reminded last March, last April, Francisco, Sarundalo, like one of the 10 best players in the world consistently and consecutively for eight weeks. All of that is to say we didn't have a major, we didn't have a 1,000 level event for the men. We did have 10 total events spread out across that 500 to 50 level and you got to see just about everyone in action whether it be again the top guys in play, whether it be the ascending players looking to continue that ascent the learner TNs, maybe you didn't get to, well you did actually get to see Joelle Fonseca even if he wasn't particularly successful, Rafa O'Dar gets a win at the two or level, like you got to see some shit, you got to see some things in this second month of the season, so is there going to be significant movement in my rankings, no, nothing, that note, you know again Felix didn't win three events consecutively, had he won Montpellier Rotterdam and then Dubai then you're starting to think

8:11okay maybe Felix is the fourth best player in the world right now, was it that prolific? No one did anything to that extent to significantly alter the perception of themselves but certainly again you're not going to get many changes one through three spoiler alert here before we get to the rankings for through, I mean again it depends where you want to go, like there's a couple pivotal stretches, it's A what do you do with a couple pivotal questions, A what do you do with this version of Taylor Fritz, Taylor Fritz who made a Dallas final, like looked fine in Delray even if he lost back to back Americans for the first time in a very long time, they were the Shelton and Tommy Paul, ain't no shame in that game, you know again Sarah loses early in Acapulco, so does Demon, but Demon also won Rotterdam, but like are you really going to read into that, we didn't see Moosetti at all, here's the thing, are you going to punish Lorenzo Moosetti who we haven't seen play in a month, but when we

9:14last saw play, looked to be in as good a form as we had ever seen and has made significant runs at three of the last four majors, I don't want to penalize him for not playing similarly, you know yes Taylor Fritz loses to Ben Shelton, he loses to Tommy, I don't want to penalize Taylor Fritz for playing during this stretch, even if it wasn't to the level that he certainly holds himself at a standard of, it's really tricky what to do with those two guys, obviously you have to Neil Medvedev entering the equation and honestly the race, I feel pretty good about my top eight, I really didn't know what to do with Taylor Fritz because he has earned a level of deference, a level of respect in what he has accomplished for multiple years consecutively now, that it hasn't even, it wasn't even, you know, he made it down this final, like beat Corta, beat Nakashima, beat Chilich, beat Jerome, those are all sound

10:14wins, especially on an indoor hardcore, 75 and 30, probably should have won his final again Shelton as well, I don't want to knock him for that, even if I don't think he's playing his best ball right now, I mean Bublick's still good, do you knock him, what do you do with Yaka Menshik who beat Sinner and makes the semi-finals in Doha Menshik also, of course, what he had a tough loss to Greek Spur, I believe was the other weird loss that he took and do buy, but like good wins over her cons, popper and each and straight sets before that, is he ready to enter this top 10 conversations? The first time I really thought about Yaka Menshik, Medvedev loses to C.C. Paz, but then plays unbelievable tennis against Felix Osirali as seen in the semi-finals in Doha Menshik, and he's still the Neil Freakin Medvedev, and there's just, again, I'm going to use that word of deference, a resume that he certainly possesses, that no one else in the race for number 10 comes even close to matching, particularly on hardcore, particularly again, with a sunshine stretch upcoming that we know how good

11:19the Neil Medvedev can be within. Dark Darius looks really good on the clay. Do you want to go there with the Tommy? Do you want to go there? I mean, Sabi Korda played some of the best ball I saw out of everyone in the month of February and his run to the Del Rey title, but no, I wouldn't go there, carry over of Learner, like if you're considering Medvedev, how do you not put respect on Learner's name? He's beaten him three times, or two times, whatever the number is. I think it's three. What about Feast and Draper? Are you ready to go there with them? They certainly don't have the scar tissue of the back half of glasses and that so many of these other guys in the race possess, and they looked really good in their debut returns. Obviously, Feast more so than Draper, but again, it's a fascinating spot right now. What you do with Taylor Fritz, what you do in that race for, what you do with Musetti as well, that race for 8, 9, 10 respectively. I have, let's see, 10, 13, 16,

12:2217 guys whose names I have written down for this exercise. And I still had trouble, you know, again, I wrote down the top three, soundly, and then I just had a long list of guys, what 14 after that, who I was like, okay, what are we going to do? Let's slowly just start knocking off names. And I think that's where we were to start the season. I don't, you know, again, Shelton beat Rude, Zverev played well, learner beat Medvedev, like you can't, like we had some matches in Australia. We certainly had decent stretches here in February as well. It's a big sunshine swing coming up. It feels like it always is when these men play these big events because again, we still, I'm still struggling so hard. I imagine many of you tennis fans are as well to delineate, like, Zverev plays demon. Who are you picket? In Indian Wells, given the surface, the conditions, you're probably picking Zverev in Miami. I think you're probably picking demon. Like, Ben Shelton is a fascinating wild card. And again,

13:23by the way, what I also want to discuss and talking about these players since they don't have the most extensive February resumes. What are the expectations? Who is the biggest threat on this list of names to knock off either a sinner in Elkaraz in this month of March? Again, what are the expectations for all these men in the sunshine swing? Those are the sorts of things I want to discuss as we come out of the month of February and again, get ready for the start of the action. So let's rip through it certainly to start Carlos Alcarez at one. How can he not be at one the long time we have to, we get to see Carlos Alcarez compete in the month of February. He wins, though, huh? Overcomes the only slight adversity he faced down a set to Hatchinov in the quarterfinals, two in one over feast in the championship match. What is that? Twelve consecutive victories now for him to start this 2026 season. It's fascinating. When you look for Carlos Alcarez, he's had sound results, certainly during the course of the sunshine swing. And you look at his history, of course, at Indian Wells, specifically, Carlos Alcarez, of course, winning this Indian

14:28Wells event in 2024, 2023, as well, semi-finals last year, the 3-set loss to Draper, has not had the most success in Miami. Look for Alcarez in his career, 13-4, wins it in 2022, semis of 23, quarters of 24, round match one exit to go fan, of course, 3-sets last year. I mean again, like, okay, title, semis, quarters in three of the last four years for most mortal human beings. That's elite of the elite. For Carlos Alcarez, relative to what he's done at Southern other places, like again, you've been able to get him in Miami, although, again, his loss is sinner, dimitrov. The go fan loss was head scratching, certainly. My point is this, he wins Miami 2022, obviously gets Indian Wells, 23, 24. He's sweeping the sunshine swing at some point, right? Why not this year? 12 consecutive victories for him to start this season. He's the highest I've ever seen him in the sense that he's up to number

15:32two in hold percentage, excuse me, number three in hold percentage, number two by break percentage, like the top three club, again, it's him, it's joke, bitch, it's sinner. That's the list of guys, I believe, who have been top three in both hold and break percentage. And we have two guys who just lived there now. Alcarez, of course, being one of them. I mean, again, it's like, who can even beat this guy? What's the down, like Alcarez, much like I said, for Sabelanka, Alcarez could lose first match of both of these tournaments. And yeah, it would be beyond befuddling because we just haven't seen him ever have a stretch like that anywhere in his young career. It wouldn't change my perception of him in this slightest, like quarters, quarters, again, that would be fine. I expect him to win one of if not both of these events, probably not both, because the onic centers are really good and really good in Miami as well. By the way, he beats center in the 23 and 24 Indian

16:34Wells runs. Did Carlos Alcarez? So typically we get to see them play here and usually it's pretty fun. Three sets, that 24 semi-final was awesome. 64 semi-final, 63 in the 23 semi-final. I don't care, you know, again, slow high bouncing conditions on a hardcore for Carlos Alcarez. Good fucking luck. And then again, he'll be fine in my, he's Carlos Alcarez. He'll be fine. There's nothing to add about Carlos Alcarez. You're talking about a once in a generation talent. And we still get to enjoy him on the ascent. And he's already this good again. More accomplished than any player I have seen at this age in the, in the open era in Men's Tennis History. Yeah, what are the expectations? Go win one of these events. Certainly, again, would only be adding to his points resume as he obviously struggled losing first match Miami last year and by his standards, struggling with the draper loss semi-finals of Indian Wells. Those would be the expectations for Alcarez. For Sinner, I mean again, it's like he lost semi-finals,

17:37five sets to Novak Djokovic. For any other human, you're like, oh, what a great start to the season. For Yannickson, you're like, oh, man, what a disappointment. How many lost 16 breakpoint chances? I saw 16 escape two of 18 on break points. How does that happen? Had a similar sort of scenario unfold with Yaka Menshik. Like they held serve through the first two sets. Sinner went unbroken. Menshik break center to start out of set number three then served lights out the rest of the way. It wasn't a bad loss. It told me more about who Yaka Menshik can be when he becomes, as he continues to ascend towards the best version of himself than it does any limitations or emerging gaps in Yannickson's game. I don't know. He lost in a quarter final. He didn't make his typical customary. Don't lose to anyone except Carlos Alcarez, as he has for 18 months consecutively. Like, oh no, someone else tripped him up. It's not changing my perception of all of a man who's been number one by hold percentage, number one by break percentage for two years now consecutively.

18:38By the way, every point you pick up in this sunshine swing will just help him narrow that deficit with with Carlos Alcarez. Of course, he was out during this portion of the season last year. He walks in with the expectation. I don't think anyone says go sweep the sunshine swing. But when one of the two, certainly that's where Yannickson are always expects to be when we're on this surface at any event that we're playing at this portion of his career. So yeah, those are the expectations. Of course, and by the way, for both Alcarez and Sinner, it's like anything less than semi-finals, probably, I don't think anything less than finals in both of those events and a loss to the other one is the only like acceptable non-championship outcome. That's the standards they've set for themselves. I'm not going to, again, if they both lose first round matches at both events, yeah, it would be really fucking puzzling. That's just not going to happen. So Alcarez won Sinner 2. I don't really have much to add on either of those men. Yannick

19:38Sinner breaking serve a pedestrian 27% by his standards this season. By the way, his ace percentage up to 14.7. This is a John Isner. This is a 6364 guy hitting an ace one and a half, you know, again, three out of every 20 serves. That doesn't sound that impressive. It's like, it's an ace of service game, essentially. It's certainly one and a half every two service games. It's three points for a guy who thrives with three points. Yeah, he's still two on the list. I don't care about the loss to Jokovic 3 sets in Australia. I don't care about the men's chick loss. It's not as though he's been particularly vulnerable in each of those, again, push to deciding sets. I know we haven't seen him and quietly outside of that Miami run last year to the final. I mean, again, he won Athens. I guess he beat Lucetti there, but like Jokovic hasn't been spectacular. He hasn't been Novak freaking Jokovic outside of the majors for the last two seasons. He's been on

20:39the tour, maximizing the Novak Jokovic of it all. He saw him on the UCLA camp. You've seen him all over the place. Love that for Novak Jokovic. Enjoy it. This is the victory lap in what is the most successful career in men's tennis history. What's the expectation for Novak Jokovic? A success for Novak Jokovic is certainly winning a title. I even argue a success for Novak Jokovic is actually just beating one of Sinner and Alcharez and ideally Alcharez again at one of these events. Get a win just over one of them and you just continue to loom as that threat is that guy who continues to seem to be the only guy who can actually beat one of those two in one of these significant moments. That's the standard. It's not Jokovic versus the rest of the field. A second round, a third round loss, the change is nothing. We've seen Jokovic do that for the last two seasons. He still shows up just fine. Come major championship time. But the success he had for Jokovic,

21:40I mean obviously I think to beat one of Alcharez's Sinner you probably go on to win the title. It's certainly at least make a final. The standard is I think that's the success is just say hey I can still beat one of those guys and I can do it at any portion of the calendar. I'm here to stay and I'm still in the hunt for serious titles. That to me is what I would deem a success for Novak Jokovic during the Sunshine Swing. Go beat one of those guys outside of that. No, nothing that could happen would change my perception of Novak Jokovic as it relates to the 2026 hierarchy. Those are the top three. That's pretty simple. Now things get a little trickier. As always the question remains what the fuck do you do with the number four spot? I mean again for me I just couldn't quite go Ben Shelton although he does of course win that title and Dallas a pretty impressive run for Ben as well. Again beating a Taylor beats the defending champship of Olive in the semifinals. I don't

22:41care if he's playing poorly to beat Diallo on an indoor hard court. It's just a good win. Good win over a mere cast men of it. She's obviously played some pretty good ball of late as well. It's the win over. This is Vera of Anaka Polko and that's the other thing. This Vera loses place fine match one but loses a bad match seven although I'll be it loses seven six and the third like yeah it doesn't bow well given again we saw him lose some tight matches last year during the sunshine swing in particular feasts Greek sport of course respectively. You know again versus a demon who had an awesome win over a very poor Felix serving performance in the Rotterdam final but you beat Felix on an indoor hard court that is still an impressive victory that's what demon did in Rotterdam Ben of course loses seven six and the third himself to Patrick Kipsen. Shelton I mean demon and Shelton both win 500 level titles. Vera does not. Vera of course does the best of the three. Now he got to face one of the big opponents last obviously joke which excuse me Alcorat Shelton faces Alcoraz in the quarter a

23:46sinner in the quarterfinals demon gets Alcoraz in the quarterfinals. Vera gets learner who he still has to go out beat but he does. So similar results there it just nothing enough significant to alter the order of any of them. Now obviously Musetti Taylor Fritz were both very much in that race for the number four spot. I'm not going to put Musetti all the way up to four which he certainly was threatening to do before the injury but coming off the injury that just that's uncosure. Taylor Fritz is not the fourth best of the and not the best of this group right now it's just not at the level. I'm going there of at that number four spot by default. I mean again start the season for Sasha's there of just another Ho-Hum 72.9% first serve percentage by the way that numbers improved each of the last four seasons even as it's been over 70% he's holding serve 90.8% of the time still only through ten matches but I mean again just taking things to another level he doesn't miss first serves and they come in 120 miles plus per hour every time

24:49yeah I mean again doesn't have a ton of points to defend either given the early exit Indian Wells round of 16 Miami last year like you can make another serious push here can Sasha's there of and I would like to see him do so. I mean semi final Paris finals the end of last year so did some well the big events obviously the slams he's still been fine. What's the expectation like what's the success for Sasha's there final one of these two events. Here's mine it's win one of these two events and probably that's the more fair standard because he's too old to take moral victories and finals but I think it's the same for him as it is for joke which beat one of Alkares in center just prove to yourself that you can actually fucking do the thing even if it's still best of three not best of five but go get a win over one of those guys. Do I think he's best positioned to do it the physicality of Indian Wells his serve in Miami he's come close obviously the center match in Vienna last year is the one you turn to I'm played him okay at the tour finals as well.

25:54I mean again historically has been fine against Alkares and obviously had his chances to beat Alkares again in Australia. Yeah just get over the finish line there's so much scar tissue adding up for him against each of these two men like just has to get something to go his way. So that's the metric of success for me it's not winning a title it's actually just beating one of those fucking guys even if it's not both of them prove you can beat one before you can prove you can be both in a single event gotta beat one of them that's the success for Zvera that's the standard I hold him to I'm gonna keep him at number four almost by default demon's gonna be at my number five spot again demon picks up the Rotterdam title his win over Felix probably the most impressive non-menchic over center win of the month. I mean again demons started to season Australian quarters Rotterdam title and then yeah loses 7-6 in the third a weird one in Alka Polka to Kipson.

26:55He's earned wins this season so far over Felix over feasts over her cons over menchic over Bublick and yes I think over an improving Francis Teato those are six good wins amongst his 11 he's been really sound to start another season obviously got blitzed again after set number one in that Australian open quarter final but that dominates Felix in a win you know that's the sort of matchup against elite competition that's been really tricky for him and I know Felix served horribly in that match play the ball not not the paper you can only face off against what your opponents given you and demon was exceptional in that victory he's still in the two or finals on that's where we are after two months he's still just clearly one of those top eight guys know again the ceiling for him doesn't feel as high to where the expectations if he wins at one of the sunshine swing events that is the biggest success of demon's career to date for him it's not the standard of get a win over center in Alka as for him a success is get wins over this four through

27:56ten tier like just don't lose to one of those guys yeah beating center beating Alka as that would be the next step forward and indicate maybe there is more ceiling for him to still tap into by the way Alex Diminauer the oldest 27 year old and just turn 27 that we have feels like in men's tennis he told me he was 31 you believe it with how long he's been around still only 27 like he beats one of a center in Alka as again now you're talking about maybe that's the best win of his career to date given where they'd have to play in the circumstances of it but for me it's don't lose to his veraph don't lose to a shell don't lose to a philix to a luceti like beat these guys who are your peers who you're competing for that chance to get the bite at the apple the top tier competitors the top tier contenders excuse me that for me is the metric of success for demon again the floor is so high he's such a sure thing he five by the way might be the highest I've ever had him he's five on my list as we get ready for the start of this sunshine swing

28:59six is the player who I still just think remains the biggest threat to either center and Alka res and I'm well aware you look and by the way just quickly for demon in his career I should have done this for all the guys except for Alka res center joke but you know how good they are but for demon for his veraph respectively in their careers Indian Wells Miami you look for Alex them an hour during the course of his career Indian Wells slower high bouncing conditions been a little tricky for him he's never made a quarter final best result round of 16 which he's done three different occasions four different occasions excuse me Miami I thought his results would be better than they are he's never made the quarter finals of either of these events in the sunshine swing that's shocking that should change this season you know what the fucking success get to a fricking quarter final that's not that he hasn't yet you look on the Sasha's veraph side his career at each of these events against slow high bouncing you feel like Indian Wells would be

30:00really good to Zerav over the years right well you look for Zerav in his career Indian Wells obviously the notable match one exit last season it's never advanced past the quarter finals now he's reached quarter finals twice twenty twenty four twenty twenty one losses to Alka res fritz respectively his lie prior to the elastic Greeks for his losses the two years before that Alka res Medvedev and four of his lie his last five losses Greeks for Alka res Medvedev Tommy Paul Fritz it's not horrible it's also has a loss to Rafa 2017 lost in a curious at this event he should have made a final four Indian Wells at some point in his career that he hasn't as a little surprising to me so obviously you'd expect him to do better there Miami's a place he's always found success finals of the event in 2018 semi finals as recently as 2024 Miami's always been good to Sasha's veraph so yeah at least at least one final four but again the metric for successor him is go beat one of center or Alka res for Ben Shelton who has number have a number six

31:03on my list by the way how could I not his two wins over fritz rude respectively if you're trying to sort out the hierarchy of these men he's actually beaten a couple of the guys in this group like the way demon again has actually beaten a Felix Ojiro Alia seem this year um 75 and the third indoor hardcore obviously unique circumstance is different than we'll see in the sunshine swing but Ben's results this year the weird loss to buy is in Auckland it's how he responded from that beats rude to make the quarters in Australia beats fritz beats chapo to win the title in Dallas obviously the history for Ben just less at these events relative to these other contenders he's amongst but he has gone round of 16 quarters the last two years his three losses in his career at Indian Wells draper champion center 2024 I believe was the champion of that event no center might move lost to Alka res that year in 2024 in fact I believe he did lose to Alka res in the semi finals of Indian Wells that year I believe I just discussed that very fact um but his three

32:08loss are draper center fritz yeah he'll be fine here you look for him his career in Miami again it's a limited history for Ben Shelton Ben one in three for his career losses to Manorino Musetti Coleman Wong fascinating um he should do better than that certainly uh it I expected in Miami this year Ben's a prime time performer Ben doesn't lose before second weeks at the majors it's time for that to translate to two out of three it has translated to two out of three consistently and again he's got real wins his serve as the wild card and how he serves in volleys I feel like should just how he takes advantage of court space to give him extra time like I think he'll be still be able to blitz through these Indian Wells courts these Indian Wells conditions even if on paper you don't think they would serve him particularly well obviously they have so far in his career um he's got the gumption he's got the wavos like the big serving is the equalizer can just

33:09take rackets out of opponents hands now I'm well aware he's one in nine against the onic center the record against Carlos Alka res 0 and 3 you know again given what those results have actually looked like ain't much better I still continue to think Ben's the guy like I know the forehand that sort of pace that they're able to play with in duty has to play the slice too frequently he's committed to playing and swinging through his backhand more frequently not leaving slices to be attacked and I still thought the construct of that matchup against sinner who looked better in their Australian open court of honor even if it was still another straight set went free onic I'm a Ben believer that's what it comes down to and on his in his home country in front of fans who will be rooting for him I just think this is the crowd this I just feel like a Ben win over Alka res or a sinner laid at night in Miami I could see that recipe unfolding in a way I just don't know if I can for the rest of the field at this point so I do think he's the biggest threat to these guys within this upcoming stretch just given how his game should translate

34:13to both surface again the lack of Miami success is shocking for Ben um he beats Fritz this month he beat Rude last month he six on my list I I'll take his win over Fritz more than I will take the success of Felix Osir alias him who again had an awesome bounce back February after a slow start out of the gates in the month of January he wins Mount Pele A beats Arthur feasts four and two albeit in feasts a second match back goes to Rotterdam oh one and two win over Sasha Bubliq in 2026 is a really impressive one by the way a six and two win over talent greekspur who obviously went on to make the Dubai final not a bad win either real wins three real wins and what was otherwise a pretty so oh by the way beat Lakhatchka three and six in Dubai as well so if you're not going to count the greekspur win feasts Bubliq Lakhatchka three real wins in the month of February a month that again doesn't have a 1000 level event on the calendar yet when given those opportunities Felix obviously thrives the issue for Felix was he got blitzed three and two by demon I thought

35:17he served well and yet still foreign to yes it was the perfect version for Daniel Medvedev but Felix really struggled on return in that match and it just felt like the depth that Medvedev was able to blitz in the fact that Medvedev had the physicality to absorb Felix's first strike I mean Felix just kept her on punches it was a really good match I don't I'm not criticizing the Medvedev performance the demon performance was bad there was just a bad serving performance and leaked into area and it for caused errors to leak into every other aspect of his game and yet again title final semi final three good wins in the month you look for Felix over the last six months again all trend lines are still pointing in the right direction now again Felix has not been good in the sunshine swing especially the Indian Welles portion of that swing more than anything historically over the course of his career you look for Felix at Indian Welles his best result quarters 2023 really fun match to Algrés by the way he's lost to Algrés two of the last three years but he only has that quarter final at Indian Welles

36:22to his name just that one you look for him in Miami semi finals of course that was a different decade that was all the way back in 2019 now you look at the losses for him the last three years Mercedes Fair of Sarandolo not horrible not great either and he hasn't made a quarter final in Miami this decade is shocking a shocking state of affairs given how good he should be on hard courts when at his best how good he has been on hard courts when at his best and obviously sunshine swing was kind of the Nate a Nadir for Felix last season he started kind of rallying everything after that poor performance after what was a really good February last season as well but he has the U.S. open results since then this felt like you know again after a month you know three steps forward last fall took a step back in January another two steps no another step back forward though to gain all that progress back in the month of February so I do think Felix has proven on the hard courts he's one of the eight guys you just got to have on your lists success for him is go make two final eights

37:27not one good week I want to see back to back that's why quarter finals is a low threshold but hold seed you know for Felix he goes into the stretch nine in the world hold seed maybe beat one guy ahead of you not impossible given the the parody between everyone go beat a guy no no go make back to back quarter finals put two sound weeks of top eight tennis together to wrap up your first third of the season before we get on to the dirt were obviously expectations change a little bit I have Felix seven on my list and that's what I'm hoping to see out of him over the course of this sunshine swing now eight nine ten again this is where things start to get particularly tricky and you have to say do I go with track record do I go with particular form the eye test of who you were in February specifically the the projection of how I think you'll perform over the sunshine swing relative to the rest of the field your resume compared to the rest of

38:27the field not just 2026 but last three six months specifically it gets really tricky to delineate from here and again at this portion I have ten names I'm still considering for these final three spots let's go by process of elimination here not going with jack draper at my number you know again eight nine ten I'm going to eliminate jack draper from that list because I don't think he you know again I don't think I don't think I have to justify that one he's not back yet although he is top ten in both holding break percentage him center alcharez joke which no one top 15 in both holding break percentage demon hour rude top 20 club top 25 club zverev rude rubla hatchen of muceti and valve asher out again not considering fasher either not going draper Arthur Feast did make a final it looked a lot better it's still his third and fourth events back no I'm not a fifth events back now not putting Arthur Feast on that event yet both both those guys are on the watch

39:31committee because when we last saw them they were certainly playing top ten tennis in the case of fourth best player in the world was jack draper when we last saw him truly at his healthiest so they're both back on the radar rubles no higher than tenth but rubles one of those high floor guys we're like okay rubles is clearly one of the 15 best players in the world Tommy's getting healthy he's getting a lot better gets a signature win over fritz now again he's just been two banged up that I can't go all the way there with Tommy Paul but welcome back into consideration to Tommy and on home soil obviously we know he can thrive one shock made all to see him make a final floor during one of these stretches I flirted with Luciano Dardari we had a long flirt had a long conversation about okay like should we make this move here I'm not going to go the Dardari route yet but again Indian Wells with his forehand I could see him making a final eight

40:32and it shouldn't surprise anyone if he does the two wild cards are the two big servers yaka menchek Sasha bubliq menchek has a win over center it's more impressive than just about any win any other guy outside of the top three has on this list bubliq also has a win over center on win at Wimbledon and obviously over the last six months has certainly been no worse than one of the twelve thirteen best players in the world he's done it for six months consecutively and then you have the obvious three muceti fritz medvedev in the case of Lorenzo muceti I'm going to keep him at eight I'm not going to penalize him for not playing the last time we saw him he beat Taylor fritz he beat Thomas Mahatch and he was two sets to love up on Novak Djokovic and was in dominant form relative to the eventual finalist at the australian open like was was giving him the business playing maybe the most definitive hard court match in that sort of moment of his

41:33career then he got injured I'm not going to knock him for that injury he's the fourth best player in the world for two month last season consecutively on the clay muceti's eight he belongs at eight he should be better at indian wells you look for muceti for what it's worth in his career at each of these events indian wells for muceti historically last year knocked up by feast in a really fun three set match he's ever even made it to the round of thirty two that should change talk about a surface that should be perfect for his skills said Miami made round of sixteen each of the last two years losses to Djokovic alcharez respectively wins over Ben and Felix in Miami yeah it'd be if he's healthy absolutely for the runs of muceti if you're not in the alcharez center Djokovic quarter you expect to make final four within that quarter go get another signature victory over a couple guys in this group that's a successful sunshine swing so we're down to fritz medvedev bubliq and men

42:33chick men chick made finals Miami last year he's fresh off a win over center he looked really really good wins or title week two obviously forced to withdraw from what would have been a really fun encounter between him and Novak Djokovic account I might have been even now I wouldn't have been favored to win but he would have absolutely been in the fight in that round of sixteen and she's been really good to start this 2026 season really nice resume again the bubliq resume speaks for itself maybe the lack of signature victories but he's beaten everyone he's supposed to beat for six months consecutively I'm going to go Taylor fritz ninth because I'm not going to punish someone for playing and he still made a Dallas final good wins over chillich this version February quarter Nakashima's been sound like losses to Shelton and Tommy I'm not going to knock him for he hasn't been his top you know his tier two self to start this 2026 season he's probably

43:38closer to the rest of the pack than he is Musetti at eight but to ding him lower than nine just feels uncosure especially in Indian Wells event obviously he's a former champion at semis of Miami last year this is when Taylor fritz turns it on I'm gonna leave him at number nine I'm going madvedev 10 I feel horrible about it again you look for Daniel madvedev of course it is worth noting things have clearly gotten better for him since the end of last years us open you look for him since the end of that stretch madvedev now a collective across events 28 and eight picked up three different titles during that stretch you know again his hold percentage over the last 52 weeks 80 2.9% over this stretch of time 85.2 his first serve percentage is up 3% which has made the biggest difference for him the break percentages back over the 30% club

44:42talking elite of the elite talking best returners in tennis history when you have a number like that he's moving better do buy that win over Felix is the best I've seen him play in quite some time that's a signature victory and one is otherwise been you know stretch yes he's 28 and eight you look for him against top 20 opponents during the stretch he's five and one beats Vera beats demon beats Felix across a couple different events his one loss was the 7 6 3rd set loss to his Vera you know obviously there have been some head scratching losses lost uh to quarantine muthae twice to learn or tn so you guys lost three times uh the lost to rinder connection shung high certainly a head scratcher the ct pass loss in doha like that might be an impeachable loss can you really have someone 10 on your list who just lost to ct pass I'm going to say yes it's the track record again he always wakes up always finds his way to at least one final four during the stretch the ranking for medvedev back up to 11 he's back up to 9 by elo rating by the

45:44way I think I had the exact same 10 guys as the top 10 by elo rating on tennis abstract right now the only things I changed was yeah the only thing changed in my orders I went luceti eight fritz 9 medvedev 10 instead of medvedev 9 fritz 10 like the overall elo has that was unintentional by the way I'm just looking at it now I'm going to go with the medvedev track record over bublic over menchic even though I do think menchics maybe single match ceiling is it higher than a deniel medvedev's right now I can't see deniel medvedev beat nionic sinner so maybe I should have gone with menchic but it just speaks to how tight the margins are right now in men's tennis that's your snapshot of where things stand as we get ready for the start of the sunshine swing and again we will have coverage each and every day of the sunshine swing I will always also try my best tomorrow have time in transit of course had it out too well to call matches for tennis channel but if I have some time I will certainly try my best to record stock up stock down to talk about how the rest of the field at this Indian Wells Miami at these Indian Wells Miami events will look of course we got

46:49a busy weekend of college tennis broadcasting as well I won't be on the call but west off Chris Halliores our team steering the ship across the big 12 SEC ACC conferences this weekend so make sure you tune into the action so you don't miss out on any of our coverage you can follow it on the crack records YouTube channel and of course over on yespn plus gonna have great coverage in Phoenix next week subscribe to that YouTube channel subscribe to the crack interviews podcast feed great shout podcast feed all that content by the way only possible because of the tireless efforts of our super producer Dan you west off a shout out to him a shout out of course as well for the support we get from our friends at the Lowell Springs School to learn more about why they

48:19you