MSTR Today: Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy's $1 Trillion Bitcoin Play?

0:00America leads the world in medicine development. It matters. We get new medicines first, nearly three years faster. Five million Americans go to work because we make medicines here at home, and not relying on other countries keeps us safe. But China is racing to overtake us. Will we let them? Or will we choose to stay ahead? When America leads, America cures. Let's tell Washington to keep us in the lead. Learn how at AmericaCures.com. Pay for by Farma. This is your fix. I am your host, Stasi Schroeder. Welcome to Tell Me Lies, the official podcast. What's the most unhinged thing of these in three? Steven, because he's so evil. I do think he is misunderstood. You see everyone base consequences. It's intoxicating. The writers just know how to trick. Yeah, there's always a twist in this show. Tell me lies, the official podcast January 6th and stream the new season of Tell Me Lies January 13th on Hulu and Hulu on Disney+. It's March 2nd, JLD here. And welcome to MSTR today in the Treasury Titans.

1:06Nothing of this video is financial advice, but Michael Sailor wants us to know that he is captain strategy. And man, the flywheel is going to be kicking this week, definitely next week, as stretch is looking to open up around $100 again. So hopefully we see the ATM burying for stretch, at least all week. If not, at least a few days this week will be the, in my opinion, worst case scenario, because I think stretch is going to be humming. Michael Sailor pushed it up to 11.5% for the next month. So I think people are going to be like, he's never going to stop. So we might as well just buy and hold and get a juicy yield on our short term cash positions. Short and medium term cash, cash positions, by the way, because it's a great way to build wealth, especially when you're looking at rock return of capital. So you're not paying taxes for the next 10 years on this captain strategy is in full effect. And what is the turn of the century? Well, the turn of the century means that Michael Sailor now has

2:08bought 101 times. And I have the numbers coming up for you, because we are at the turn of the century. And what did Michael Sailor do? Well, he acquired 3,000 in 15 Bitcoin for 204 million at 67,700 per Bitcoin. So as of 3126, we haudle 720,000 737 Bitcoin acquired for 54 billion at 75,000 985 per coin. So Michael Sailor keeps on trucking. You got to love to see that. All right. And Adrian wants us to know is a very happy Monday and good morning to everyone, because this corn day and strategy acquired those 3,000 and 15 Bitcoin, how do they do it? Well, they did it with $7 million in stretch and 229 million MSTR stock. Amazing. They can raise so much money via the MSTR ATM during this crabby McCrabbs market. But man, once this sentiment turns around, the Bitcoin price action turns around, look out above.

3:15Chris gives us the graph, which I love, which is the weekly ATM proceeds against stretch at 7 million MSTR to 229, almost 230 million. So here you go. As we keep on rock and stretch just a little tiny blip here, but I will say I think that's going to change over the next two weeks as we get into the these ranges more likely as the X as a snapshot dates coming up on the 15th of March. And here we go with 0.23 here. So a stronger week than has been happening since all the way back in 26 of January. So good start to the month of March. Let's keep this train rolling. And Chris says Bitcoin has now gone five consecutive months with negative performance. I mean, this is really something that doesn't happen very often. You can see October, November, December, January, February. Are we going to see some green coming up for the rest of 2026? One can only hope, but only time will tell. Zinc says, I'll be genuinely surprised to see

4:20Bitcoin below 60,000. We've already faced a price in a lot this year, tariffs, Greenland, Venezuela, now Iran, all major macro events that tend to be bad for risk on assets. My view is that many of the big geopolitical events are being front run this year. And once we get past it, Bitcoin and stocks are going to boom. I think from the summer onwards, it's going to be glorious. I'm expecting the mother of all rallies going into the midterms. The worst of it's behind us. Green skies ahead. Very bullish on Bitcoin. Now, we have a great post from Rob, who says, must read the MSTR stretch thesis. MSTR's cost of capital is now 11.5% on stretch preferred. If sales history ATM, his to stretch ATM tomorrow and smash by Bitcoin at 67, then Bitcoin must rise at a pace that exceeds this rate. So one year from now with Bitcoin exceeds 74,000, 700,000, then MSTR shareholders win. If it's lower, MSTR shareholders lose. This compounds into the future. 83,000 after two years, 92 after three years, 103 after four, 115 after five, 199 after 10, 592 after 20.

5:24And by the way, if you don't think Bitcoin is going to be at these numbers, you should not be investing in Bitcoin. You should not be investing in MSTR. You are a bear. And that is okay. That's your decision, that's your choice, but you're in the wrong place. So this assumes that the dividends are being paid by issuing more stretch. Now, the success of this trade all comes down to whether or not you think Bitcoin will surpass these numbers, any excess return beyond those numbers above a crew directly to the benefit of the shareholders. This is what it means when they say amplified Bitcoin. Now, here's the kicker. Money, printer must go bur. Deficits must be finance. M2 must grow. Population will keep growing. Bitcoin education will spread. More fiat currencies will collapse. MSTR will keep issuing equity and debt to pull Bitcoin out of circulation. More coins will be lost over time. The having will slow new Bitcoin mine each day. The current price is already at extreme oversold levels. We are at near max levels of fear. With all these underlying forces that play, issuing stretch at these levels appears to be an excellent risk adjusted trade. Even at 11.5%, it is these exact

6:27marking conditions that we want sellers smashing the ATM every day all day. So if you're questioning, why is he so raising? When will he lower the rate? Is it dangerous? You have to keep the time horizon in mind and view all the underlying forces that play are working in your favor to offset the cost of capital. My view, ignore the noise. Focus on the math. Not financial advice. Do your own DD. Do diligence. Rob Graypost really enjoyed that. Loved it all. And Chris put a great article out here. How he has the strategy valuation model. MSR is 10 year valuation model price predictions. He goes through all of this. I'm going to just go through this quickly because I'm not going to sit here and read this. But I want to highlight a few things. The bear case 50% Bitcoin yield. The base case 100% Bitcoin yield. The bull case 150% Bitcoin yield. These are crazy numbers. And you can see from these graphs what happens when those numbers happen. So the results. If we plug these numbers into my model, we get the following. Bear case is 4,329. That's excluding stock splits.

7:33Base case 5772. Bull case 72 15. So bull case again, $7,250 per share. As you can see, across all these scenarios, the model points that significant upside from current levels, even the most conservative assumptions produce a result that reflects from the compounding power of strategies. Bitcoin accumulation strategy over a decade. So again, this is over a decade. And this is strategies valuation. You can see the graph here. For those of you who haven't already, I invite you to read my full investment thesis for strategy below. And he links it here. So again, if you're not following Chris at Chris M. Melis, definitely do so. But he's always providing very good, very clear, very just at the end of the day, it's just solid guidance. He's not this permable. In fact, he's really, you know, say a couple of times, whoa, slow down. Like this is where I think we're headed. And it's not maybe where you're hoping him is taking you. And he's always had very clear advisors. I've always appreciated from him. So that's why I say, for him to be this bullish with his bear case to me is super bullish because his upside

8:39multiple is 33x for bear, 44x for base, and 56x for bull. So anywhere in there, I'm actually pretty happy if I'm being honest. So here we go on for the ride. And this right here is a great video from Dan Hillary. It's just about eight minutes long, actually eight minutes and 29 seconds, where he talks about buck. And the reason why I want to play this video for you is because it just shows you this is just to be getting the tip of the iceberg of what companies like buck are going to do. And guess what? The whole thesis spoiler alerts and you'll see this in the presentation is that buck just by stretch buck is going to buy stretch. And all there's going to be tens and then 20s and then hundreds and eventually thousands of companies, they're going to do just this. They're just going to buy stretch. And then they're going to arbitrage it so that they get their little slice and then they're offering it to different markets that don't have access to stretch because Michael sale are staying laser focused. He sees the $300 trillion opportunity here in the United States when it comes to stretch. He's going to let people

9:43like Dan Hillary and buck in tens and then hundreds and then thousands of other companies leverage it in other ways. That's all going to be bullish for stretch. And of course, that's going to be incredibly bullish for Bitcoin, which then again, it's going to be incredibly bullish for MSTR shareholders, which is going to be incredibly bullish for stretch and the flywheel continues. So as soon as we get back from taking our sponsor, Dan's going to take it away, sit back, relax, and enjoy. If you're building in the Bitcoin era, structure matters, treasury strategy, capital allocation, entity structure, it all starts with a solid foundation. And when you're ready to form your business the right way, Northwest registered agent helps you do more than just file paperwork. With Northwest, you don't just create an LLC. You build a complete business identity from day one. That means registered agent service, a real business address, operating agreements, domain, website, professional email, phone number, and built-in privacy. No juggling vendors, no sketchy upsells, no selling your data. They've been doing this for nearly 30 years and they're the largest registered agent and LLC service in the US with over 1,500 corporate guides, real humans who know

10:48your local laws and actually pick up the phone. Northwest handles everything in-house, which means fewer hands on your data and privacy by default for every customer. Don't pay hundreds or thousands of dollars for what you can get from Northwest for free. Visit northwestregardagent.com, slash JLD free and start using free resources to build something amazing. Get more with Northwest registered agents at northwestregardagent.com slash JLD free. Everyone, my name is Dan Hillary. Thanks for being here. This is awesome. I run the Treasury at Buck, which is the world's first savings coin. We're really trying to bring savings technology to everyone in the world, really anyone with access to the internet. I'm also one of the founding members of True North, which is the first kind of investment grade podcast focused on MSTR, focused on Bitcoin, Securitization, and Visual Credit. So I'm going to go over what I believe to be the most

11:49important part of the entire travel market, specifically the Securitization of Bitcoin, focusing on the frontier, which I believe to be STRC and kind of layer for Securitization, which is Buck. Bitcoin is being securitized pretty much 10 times faster than any commodity in history. With gold, we saw the GLD ETF launched in 2004, which brought custody to people who didn't want to physically hold gold and didn't want to settle in gold via futures contracts. It's not the same thing with oil futures. They brought kind of price exposure from localized markets in oil to a global market. We saw this with mortgage-backed securities as well. This market wasn't very liquid until the Securitization of that market. We're seeing this with Bitcoin. It started in 2009, obviously the Bitcoin Genesis block was mine. For the next eight years, you really couldn't get price exposure to Bitcoin unless you were directly holding the asset. This is a raw digital exposure, or you had a custodian or a trusted third party who held the asset, but you couldn't get cash

12:53secured price exposure. It was in 2017 that the CBOE and CME Bitcoin futures launched. This is a massive game changer for institutions and just private investors. You could now get price exposure to Bitcoin, launch short, hedge to leverage, just directly with your Prime broker, the same way you trade a SPY futures or a Treasury futures contract. Then in 2020, for the first time, MSTR announced their first purchase of 21,454 Bitcoin. This was a big, big shift in kind of NASDAQ listed Bitcoin exposure. Prior, there was some forms of operational exposure so you could buy a couple of publicly traded miners, but this was the first time we saw a NASDAQ pure sort of unchanged Bitcoin exposure. Then in 2024, this rounded out the layer two securitization. I'll talk about this later, kind of the layers of capital that have been built underneath STRC, but it was the spot Bitcoin ETFs that initially were cash creating redeems

13:57that then in July of 25 switched it in kind creates redeems. This rounded out the NASDAQ listed public markets exposure to Bitcoin without physical delivery or custody. Then this is the tip point. I think STRC is the single most important security in all of the Bitcoin market. I'll explain why in a second. It was STRC that allowed us to launch Buck, which is a savings coin backed specifically by STRC bringing STRC exposure to the world. Just to recap, obviously, layer one securitization is the raw capital. That's the Bitcoin. That market is mature. Layer two is any sort of price exposure with an in-kind create and redeem. It's kind of direct price exposure with a pseudo claim on the underlying asset. That market is completely mature with the spot Bitcoin ETFs. I think all the opportunity here for builders lies in layer three and layer four. The layer three is any form of derivative price exposure. You don't have a direct

14:59claim on the underlying. I think MSTR, STRC, and even the most recent structured notes offered by Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, which give kind of structured exposure to funds which have a mandate. These raised $700 million in the past three months. Then layer four. This I think is the frontier. This market is still nascent and it's being built out in real time. I believe at Buck, this is exactly what we're doing. We're taking it to people around the world. This was a quote by Hal Finney on a Bitcoin talk forum in 2010. Any wrote, I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin to be high powered money that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash. Most Bitcoin transactions will occur between banks to settle net transfers. Mind you, this was 2010. Just last year in 2025, Michael Sailor wrote, or he said on a podcast, he said, the idea of digital money is 8% or 7% with zero volatility. In English language, there's a word for what everybody in the world wants for universal utility. That word is money.

16:03And this quote was the direct inspiration for Buck. The Buck is the world's first savings coin. We call it a savings coin because you can think of stablecoins as you're checking account and buck the savings coin as your savings account. We're bringing high yield savings to everyone in the world. A lot of people in this room may not be familiar with the stablecoin market, but it's absolutely massive. It's a $300 billion market growing at 40% year over year. 80% of the market is made up of USDT and USDC and these are stablecoins backed by US treasuries and they don't pay yield to holders. Although you have the stable backing of the US dollar, you're being debased real time. Buck flipped this on its head. We're backed by STRC and a small volatility buffer of USDC, which I'll get into in a little bit. We offer a 10% yield stream to holders and our total market cap is $2 million. There's quite a bit of a discrepancy and a massive total addressable market for something like Buck. Why Buck? I get a lot of questions. Is Buck

17:08different from STRC? Yes. They serve two completely different markets. We offer the 4 billion internet users that can't easily access a US brokerage account, high yield savings powered by stretch. There's also a lot of decentralized finance protocols that benefit from a product backed by stretch. I think OVE or Morpho, these are lending protocols where you can post-buckish collateral, you can leverage it a little bit and get a higher yield if you believe stretch to be creditworthy. You can also segregate the yield on a platform like Pendle and go levered long the exposure or lock in a fixed rate. You're essentially creating a futures curve on a product backed by STRC. Then finally, Buck is instant and fractional. There's no market hours, no T plus one settlement. Anyone outside the US can just purchase it 24, 7, 365 and send it anywhere in the world. Obviously, I believe this to be a massive opportunity for strategy and for Buck to start eating into the stablecoin market. How do we do this? Our treasury is mainly STRC and that pay is an

18:1311.25% return of capital dividend. We then over-collateralize our treasury holdings with 5% or more right now it's about 40% USDC. What this allows us to do is twofold. One, we can reduce the trailing volatility of STRC, which is like 5% right now, to close to zero. This is the digital money idea, the high powered money idea that Sailor talked about in that quote. We also can provide the liquidity for mince redemptions, forced liquidations at any time 24, 7, 365. We then pass through a 10% yield stream to holders and there's obviously a discrepancy between the yield we receive on the back end and the 10% we pay out. We use that extra 125 dip spread to buffer the over-collateralization. Now you may think, is this all tangential to the Bitcoin thesis? Does this help Bitcoin? And I'd argue yes, it's very, very in line with the Bitcoin ethos. That's because when people buy

19:14buck, every dollar goes into buck we use to buy STRC. When we buy STRC, strategy goes out and they buy Bitcoin. So ultimately, one dollar of buck purchased is one dollar of Bitcoin purchased and this is what I believe to be the gateway between kind of the low volatility needs of general people in the world and the high powered digital capital, the real settlement layer between institutions that Bitcoin ultimately will become. Thanks for listening. What's the second best? There is no second