Monday - March 9, 2026

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4lfOy1s

The episode reviews continued heightened, two-way intraday market volatility tied to the Iran military operation, highlighted by a Dow swing from sharply down to closing up over 200 points and oil’s brief spike near $115 before falling back to about $83–$84 after comments that the war may be nearly over. David argues these violent moves reflect short-term trading, hedging, and speculation, and advises long-term investors to avoid reacting. He notes the 10-year yield fell to about 4.1%, technology led while financials lagged, and last week’s index declines were modest despite some weak breadth. He discusses oil and VIX backwardation, shipping/insurance uncertainties in the Strait, debate over targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, and risks of bad policy if oil rises. Bahnsen also cites a “horrific” jobs report with unemployment at 4.4% and significant job losses and revisions, and previews CPI Wednesday.

00:00 Volatility Backdrop

00:54 Wild Market Reversal

01:47 Oil Spike Explained

04:10 Ignore The Noise

04:31 Rates Sectors Breadth

06:18 Backwardation Signals

07:42 War Timeline Shipping

09:57 Policy Risks Oil

10:42 Jobs Report Shock

12:33 Energy CPI Outlook

13:35 Wrap Up Stand Pat

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

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