Midterm Crossfire (with Mark McKinnon and Billy Begala)

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2:01Not worrying where your money is growing. That's the betterment effect. It started today at betterment.com. Investing in Valsus Performance is not guaranteed. Hey, pull up a chair. It's hacks on tap with David Axelrod, John Hyoman, and Mike Murphy from the Vox Media Podcast Network. As one nation we grieve for the true American patriots who have made the ultimate sacrifice for our nation, even as we continue the righteous mission for which they gave their lives. We pray for the full recovery of the wounded and send our immense love and eternal gratitude

3:02to the families of the fallen. And sadly, there will likely be more before it ends that's the way it is. Yeah, just like bone spurs, the way it is. Oh, man, you go right there. Yeah, I will with Trump, you know, I know, but the fact is there have been at least more and more. I haven't checked in the last hour casualties. Now we brought Mark McKinnon in here. You see him right there. If you, if this were on video and you were watching on video, you'd see him there with his steps and hat on in front of his fire, his roaring fire, because we were going to give a special show about the Texas primary. We're going to talk about that later, but war sort of takes precedent over all of that. And we're not going to talk war strategies so much here as the politics, this is hacks on tap. So with great regard for those who are serving and those who have been lost and those

4:03who have been wounded, let's get into that. How do you think you guys? Let's start just before you throw out the first question, David, just because we're going to have to talk about the cynical politics. But before we get to that, a little disclaimer, we have, you know, American armed forces personnel in harm's way right now, diplomatic people in the region with these drone attacks, obviously naval and Air Force aviators and probably special operators too. So they're in our thoughts and we're going to get into politics, which is always kind of the cheesy part of the equation. But that's what we're experts in. So just a little disclaimer, no mocking of the people who are ordered into this situation. We're going to talk about the chimps at the top and what it means politically for them in an election year. So now that you've degraded us and exposed us for what we are, let's introduce Mark McKinnon to join us. Truth in advertising my hacky friend. Let's introduce Mark McKinnon who fits right in here at Old Hack himself.

5:05Yeah, let's bring in Mark McKinnon. Welcome to the gutter, Mark. We're going to be talking later about the Texas primary and nobody knows more about the great state of Texas than Mark McKinnon. He's even got his trademark stetson on. So good, good to see you, Mack the knife. Shallow media guy reporting for duty. Yeah, excellent. You're in the right, you're in the right place. Yeah, 101st bullshit brigade. Here we are. Suit up. A week ago, we out of the state of union and the president talked a lot about gas prices coming down in the stock market going up. He spent a paragraph in an hour and 40 minute speech on Iran and now we're at war and it's not exactly clear how, how or why it all happened because we've seen a lot of rash. Now, it's like, how do you give me your analysis? Well, it changes every day. Yeah, I understand. And that's. I mean, Rubio's on his second explanation in 24 hours.

6:05Yeah. I mean, yes, we've heard, you know, originally when the president sent the military hardware and troops to the to the Middle East, he said it was because of the assault on citizens in Iran. And then, you know, we've heard in the last four days, well, it was really about ballistic missiles and they might develop when they could hit us within the next 10 years. It was about their nuclear program that we thought we had obliterated eight months ago. The president said was destroyed forever. And then it was we, they were going to hit us because Israel was going to hit them. And so we thought we'd hit them first. Yeah. Well, that's what's so remarkable about all this. I mean, you know, from a, from a just general point of view about the threat that we faced, I generally lean in sort of that McCain direction, you know, I think if McCain were here, he probably would have been, for sure, you know, he probably would have been the tip of the spear on this.

7:06But I tell you what he wouldn't have been and what's so remarkable is, you know, this buildup has been happening for a long time. I mean, really since, you know, we dropped the big one on the nuclear facility, this has been sort of in the car, it's not like this came out of the dark and we weren't prepared for this and just pulled the trigger. So what strikes me is, you know, it may have been the right thing to do, but the notion that they're so ill prepared about why they're doing it and, and, and all the, the collateral sort of, you know, also clearing out the air bases when there was plenty of time to do that before. And I was like, oh, we got to get people out of there. It just seems, it seems like there wasn't any real thought put into this other than, okay, let's go. Yeah. Yeah, I'm shocked. I think it's over strategy. You know, the regimes in a weakened condition, it's a horrible, vile regime. The nuclear program was already before the last rate set back. They're years away. They've been closer in the past. They're not now yet. There was some trigger point here and I haven't heard a word of what a win looks like

8:09at the end. Well, that's the problem. If you don't, if you can't define what, what your, what your goal is, then you don't want to win us because regime change was also a part of the mix and has been in and out of the mix. Yeah. Somebody who's seen this movie, let me, let me remind everybody how easy it was to create democracy. That's the other reason I forgot to mention that. Standing in also for idiots from the 2000s. Yes. Let's point out, but let's point out to our listeners that you were the media strategies for President George W. Bush. So you lived through this, the politics of it and the reality of it. Well, and what I can, what I can tell you is that, you know, I remember the initial flush and, you know, and by the way, when we went in, then George W. Bush had a 75% approval rating. He had supportive almost everybody in Congress. There was one vote where there were 99 senators voted for it and the country was behind it. So it's much different circumstance, but even under that circumstance, you know, there

9:11was just this notion that what next was going to be, you know, democratic flowers blooming across the Middle East, well, that didn't happen. And so, I mean, the parallel here is, is what's next. And you know, from all I've read from people who actually know what they're talking about, you know, they have a sort of redundancy of the IRGC sort of plans where, okay, they take out, you know, the first 20 of us, there's 20 behind that and 20 behind them. And it's, it's not like you knock them out and suddenly people rise up in the streets. Yeah. Well, if they do, they all get slaughtered, you know, that's part of the problem. The only thing you quote unquote, hope for is the Iranian military and the Revolution of Guard, which aid each other, get into a fight. And then you got a civil war in a place with 90 million people. I mean, it, this thing is a menu of tough options. The president dropped the, and really the Israelis dropped a bomb on the, uh, Ayatollah and on some of the senior members of his government, but there's no indication that they have

10:13incapacitated the regime. Well, I love his Trump saying, well, we had a guy we were going to deal with, but we killed him too. Yeah. He wasn't the wrong men's room during the raid. Oh, well, we had a guy or knew a guy. Yeah. Yeah. No, no. It's like that like the old Iraq thing. Why, why, why do these guys have they not heard of, of Zoom? I think this meeting thing has become a little hazardous. Wouldn't you, if you were in that government's aid, why don't we get together on Zoom this time? Yeah. I'm going to be in Kansas City in my basement, but you can talk to me there. Yeah. Look, but let's get to the politics because we're, we're, there are thousands of people talking. This is an unpopular president in an election year starting an unpopular war. So the biggest bomb may be the political one. We don't know how this is going to turn out and how long it's going to go. Trump's talking about a month. The power has limits. And when a lot of your strategy is to shoot down $35,000 cheap drones with $800,000 guided

11:16highly tricky missiles, it's an attrition war and there, there already been leaks from the Pentagon. We're going to run out of hardware here and bring all the stocks down. So I don't think this thing will get better unless it ends very quickly and Trump can just go for the optics of victory and maybe break it even, but the longer it goes, it's starting unpopular. I don't see how it gets better. And the, you know, the Iranians are showing some fight. Yeah. And the problem is not, not, you know, not only is this unpopular with his political opposition Trumps, it's unpopular with his base, maybe even more popular with his base. Yeah. That's right. These are the people that elected the guy who said no more wars. Yep. And here we are. Yeah. I mean, the rep, I mean, the Republicans have, Republicans have in the main in polling and in Congress have rallied behind them. Overall, 59% of people in a CNN poll this week have disapproved of the decision and 41 approved. And of those 41, you know, he does rally his base, but there is an element of the Republican

12:20base of the Maga base that was deeply opposed. I mean, they, one of the tenets of Mago was no more foreign wars, no more, I mean, they ran hard against your old guy, Mark, and they ran against mine as well. I mean, no foreign interventions. This is the work, not our business. Let's focus it at home. And those folks are unhappy. I mean, Marjorie Taylor Green is not alone in that. No. Well, that's why they have to move quickly, you know, Trump's a television show. So now he's got a television show of, you know, every casualty is a tragedy, but low casualties, lots of stuff blowing up on TV. The longer this thing goes on and embassies get hit or those golf countries that thought they were in the American security umbrella are having terror bombs, worse it is for Trump. And that's where his Maga people are going to snap because it's going to look like, oh, great, another endless war. And you're going to start seeing blowhards on cable, present company excluded, start talking about, well, you know, it may take boots on the ground to capture a few of these

13:23and then we're down that slippery slide. So I don't see any political upside for him unless it ends tomorrow. Yeah. They've already mentioned boots on the ground. Yeah. Maybe a strategic thing. Yeah. I mean, I think the biggest thing to me, and this was my reaction in the beginning. This is a deadly serious thing and there are, and there are American lives at stake. It's also one more thing that people didn't elect him to do that they think he should be doing. My suspicion is that the greatest political risk for the president is one more indication that he's off on everything else, but the thing that people want him to be focused on. Yeah, the economy. Yeah. And the economy can get worse as we're seeing in a turbulent market and oil prices. Yeah. I mean, like I said, last last last week gas prices he was posted about gas prices being low. He exaggerated as he often does about how low they were. And he bragged about how the stock market was setting records all the time.

14:25Last I saw today, I don't know where the market's gone in the last few hours, but it wasn't headed to a good place. It was like a thousand points down and gas prices are being jacked up and no matter what happens, the war is going to dominate, you know, it's going to be 24-7 for a long time going forward. And last, I mean, the clip I saw from him today was him segueing from some comments about the war to the ballroom. So he's focused now on the ballroom. We actually, that was yesterday. We got that clip. Let's play that clip because that was kind of unbelievable. Or maybe it wasn't. The curtains. Curtains. Right now you see a very, very deep hole, but in about a year and a half from now you're going to see a very, very beautiful building. And there's your entrance to it right there. In fact, it looks so nice. I don't think I'll even... I think I'll save money on the doors because it can't get more beautiful than that. I picked those drapes in my first term. I always like gold, but I think we can save a lot of money. I just saved... I just saved curtains. But it will be a spectacular, the most beautiful ballroom.

15:27I believe it's because I built many a ballroom. I believe it's going to be the most beautiful ballroom anywhere in the world. So this is in the middle. I understand. This was at a presentation of... Medal of Honor. Doing it in the State of the Union wasn't enough about him. Now these poor Medal of Honor, fallen soldiers from World War II and past conflicts. Their families were there. The initial remarks were about the war in Iran, and then he just segues into the ballroom. I mean, it's like it's all about him. Come on. That's who he is. Everything is a prop in his movie. But not just the oil prices and not just stocks, but the entire economy can be jolted by what's going on here. And he... Well, so just a question for you, smart Democrats. I'm a smart independent now. What should the Democrats do? Do they stand back and let them own this thing? Do they get on the old Vietnam war pants and go for war powers immediately and put a

16:29clock on them? What's the smart move politically? You know, I do believe there's a reason why there is a white Congress was written into the Constitution that they had to declare war that they had to vote on war, and the War Powers Act has meaning, although it's been circumvented for decades. I wonder about the process arguments right at the moment when we're in it, but here's what Mark Kelly said. Who has some bona fides on the subject of war? I think the president owes the American people an answer on what is the strategy here? What is the goal? Is it getting rid of the Iranian's nuclear capability, which by the way, this administration said was obliterated last summer, or is it getting rid of ballistic missiles, or is it regime change? We need an answer and we need a vote in the United States Congress. Yeah. So, I mean, I think focusing on what we've been focusing on, which is that lack of the

17:33sort of weird shifting strategies. Yeah. I don't think that it's smart for the Democrats to try and catch a falling knife. Just step back and question the rationale here, because there's no clear rationale. It's all over the place. And I think that's the best approach. I think there's some gas in the thing of he has not made like every other president always a coherent national argument for why we're doing it, why we're spending American blood and treasure. You know, he's doing off the cuff remarks at his country club once in a while and sending Rubio out to get roasted by changing his story every three days or sending Hegsep off to make a fool out of himself. We need a well-reasoned speech to the country explaining what he's doing. Now they will get a rambling mess, but if I were a Democrat, I'd advocate that because that's being president 101, so they should set up that test and see if Trump has an argument other than he was irritated that they or BB told him to do it. I'll tell you that the longer this thing goes and the mess here, it gets the absence

18:37of a rationale at the beginning is going to become more and more of a festering sore. Yep. And it should. And I think that's where Democrats should focus. And I think as time goes on, you know, it was the Washington Post reported some weeks ago that General Cain had warned the president about the pitfalls of this magnitude of engagement in terms of manpower, in terms of supplies, in terms of the nature of the resistance that he would get. And I do think that this appeal to his sense of wanting immortality as the president that somehow moving forward on this, you know, where he's successful would, you know, further, you know, emblaze him in the books of history as a great president. As with so many things he's done, I mean, I think the danger of the opposite happening

19:37is much greater than any glory. Well, I think that's smart. And I think it could be a throw in the briar patch kind of thing where the Democrats just sort of flatter him by suggesting that we need, we need an oval office. We need, we need you to set the table here for us and just let him take it from there. And we know what will happen from that. It failed the test. Yeah. I mean, if this thing keeps going, I think war's raised stakes. People kind of get sober and serious, particularly when casualties start happening and, and reversals. So I think people are going to look at the eight team here he's got. We have an incompetent DNI in Tulsi Gabbard who's a train wreck, a homeland security. Oh, by the way, whose entire record is, is, is, is opposing conflicts like these. And we'll, this one specifically. Yeah, yeah. This one specifically. Yeah. And she's not on the hotline to Russia. Yeah. Second, you've got a Christy gnome at Homeland Security, train wreck number two. You got Hegseth, who even the Trump, you say that hearing today, by the way, Murphy.

20:40Yeah. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. And then you've got Hegseth, who they're going to have to hide. You got Rubio who's gutless, not dumb, but gutless saying, oh, we had to follow these railings, which by the way, and I am a huge fan of Israel and a supporter and I get it. Nixon, Bush senior, there's a long history of our alliance with Israel holding back the Israelis. And maybe you argue it's a good idea, but this idea that we're taking orders. And then Trump said, no, I'm the master cylinder. Now Marco did an instant 180 with neck snapping speed. So this clown show at the top is going to become more relevant, I think, is the clock tick sign on the clown show. I just want to play a little clip of Hegseth, chief clown proving once again, do not draft your secretary of defense off the couch of the weekend Fox and French. The green room. Let's listen to that. I heard the question about four weeks, the typical NBC sort of got you a tight question.

21:42President Trump has all the latitude in the world to talk about how long it may or may not take four weeks, two weeks, six weeks. It could move up. It could move back. We're going to execute at his command, the objectives we've set out to achieve. And what he has shown ability to do that other presidents can't quite seem to have the aperture to do. Well, I mean, Joe Biden didn't even know what he was doing is to look for opportunities and off ramps and escalations for the United States to create new opportunities to execute what we need on our own timeline. What the hell was that? I mean, that is, that, it is really scary, honestly, when you hear that sort of thing. So when you ask Mike what should Democrats do, I think that in some ways, they certainly need to call them on the lack of rationale and on every day on the lack of accountability. But I also think they need to give them a little space here because the public will make its own judgment on this over time. Yeah, I think I think that's kind of working for them.

22:45But I just think don't, as this goes on, the contrast, you know, whatever you think about the Iraqi wars, Baker in the Reagan and Bush era, Rumsfeld was a stone cold killer, Cheney, you might disagree with the policy, but there was some competence there. And these guys, for sure, I mean, and I think that's going to be at least an older voter's mind in the background after about another three or four days, like what the hell are we doing here? Okay, let's take a break right here for a word from our sponsor, we'll be right back. Support for this show comes from Quince. Building a wardrobe, you actually like, comes down to finding pieces that mix well and last. That's where Quince shines, premium fabrics, thoughtful design, and everyday essentials that are dependable, and feel just effortless to wear. I was checking out some Quince trousers the other day because in the plagal consulting racket, you're on planes all the time.

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25:47they sure add up over time. Thankfully, it's easy to add NutriFull to your daily routine. You can order online, no prescription needed and when you sign up for subscription, you save even more and get added perks like a free headspace membership. Now let your hair become one less thing taking up space in your head and see thicker, stronger, faster growing hair with less shedding in just three to six months with NutriFull. For a limited time, NutriFull is offering our listeners, you hack a ruse, $10 off your first month subscription and free shipping. When you visit NutriFull.com and enter the promo code, you know what it is, hacks. Let me, let me just finish out this discussion by saying this, there are a lot of sons and

26:53daughters and fathers and mothers and loved ones over there on the orders of the President and we can keep it here all we want about the politics but every single one of us should be and I know we are rooting for their safe return home because this is not a video game, you know, this is not a video game, it's real life and there are real life stakes. So beyond all the strategic, you know, we tend to, we tend to weaponize every issue and every part, you know, that we confront but this one is deadly serious so I don't want to convey to anyone listening that we're not rooting for those young people and frankly for the people around if it ends up where they can be liberated from the tyranny of the regime. Great. We should all hope for that but of course there's nothing this administration doing right now that would give you great deal of confidence that any of that's, you know, that that's

27:56going to happen. Yeah and I just, if we're telling the people of Iran long suffering people of Iran, many of whom particularly in the larger cities hate this regime to pour out into the streets, we better mean it which means we're going to be in this thing a lot bigger than airstrikes well that that's where you get to boots on the ground and yeah, a much deeper involvement and you know, and that's a huge decision full of risk. Trump, they want to do that on the on the on the chief. Of course he. Yeah, I think it's in some ways irresponsible to tell people to pour out on the streets if you're telling them to pour out in the middle of a massacre. Exactly. And David, just back to the question about Democrats and what they do, I think they also have to make clear that they, they do support the goals, the overall objectives of eliminating this regime and freeing the people of Iran that just has to be done in the right way. Yeah, but Mark, the thing is we don't even know whether that is the goal. That's the point. That's the point of this whole discussion. No, but I'm saying Democrats should say that's their goal. No, I mean, that is the, it's the wish casting goal.

28:59The problem is, it's not one guy. The guy that Israeli's killed should be dead. He's a horrible, vile despot, but they have a farm team of 100 more crazy clerics. And so, you know, yeah, but what's the plan for the next, I guess they're going to claim they got number one through 11, but that regimes exist to self perpetuate. And so this is so much harder than what Trump is assuming. And you know, Trump, he'll change tomorrow. If it looks like, well, I guess they shot 200 people today, probably can't change the regime. I want to talk, you look out Iceland, you know, I'm, it just, you can't rely on him. What I wonder about is, and no one knows, this is an unknowable question, but will this thing still be on the front burner going into the fall or will other things supplant it? Will this be a decisive issue in this midterm election? Because a lot of Republicans are on the hook for it now because he's going to demand it.

30:00You know, I don't know the answer. You say no, you think it'll still be Mike, you still, you think I think it'll, it'll get down into kind of a very, the, the, the general canes of the world, no, we can't keep expending ordinance at this level, or we're going to have nothing left with the Chinese decided it's a good time to grab part of the Taiwanese, you know, there's so many things that can go wrong. And we are spending a lot of American ordinance, those carriers need maintenance. I mean, this, this is a hard thing to constantly sustain. So I think they will go at it for a while and then ramp it down, but it'll still be a political issue. That's the issue. I mean, like Afghanistan, Afghanistan came and went, but it haunted Biden for the rest of his administration as a fumble of mistake, yes, because of the way they handled that. Plus I think in September, you're going to hear Trump screwed up the economy and then he made it worse with a war in the past. It's just hard to see how there's a, you know, this is resolved in any way that helps Trump by fall. Well, I'll tell you what, yeah, I tell you what will be resolved.

31:03What will be resolved is the Texas primary, because that's going to be over in a few hours. And that was the thing we were going to talk about before war broke out, but there's been kind of a political war in your state of this is the transition cruise missile of all time. Well done, David. We're going from the real war to the political world. Yeah. Watch out. Wait a minute. Blow you up. Murphy. Wait a minute. I've got the perfect transition, David. Yeah. In 1980, in the middle of the hostage crisis, I was jailed briefly. I was editor of a newspaper who was found in contempt of court for refusing to turn over unpublished photographs of Iranian protesters. Oh, is that right? Yeah. Good for you. Thank God that you're at large now, so you can be here with us. Which became a very interesting topic during my FBI confirmation interviews. I bet it was. You did. Listen, if that were that, that just has to be a small part of what was in that FBI file that anyway. Anyway, we, when we had the pre-show meeting, we decided we couldn't rely on known felons

32:05like McKinnon all the way through this. And I, I got the bracelets put on me in front of the Russian embassy in college protesting the invasion of Afghanistan. So he said, well, we better get Bugala and I said, oh, yeah, Paul, no, no, not him, not him. Get the wheel. Bugala. Billy Bugala, his son. We need Texas. So Billy, Billy, welcome. Yeah, we're, we're get it from the generation before after eight tracks, like his dad. And so here we are, Billy, welcome to Hackson tap. So here's Billy Bugala. We all know his dad, who is one of the great, great guys and one of the great political minds around. And he is the co-founder of the Barbed wire and they cover Texas politics like nobody does really well. And they're, they're dedicated to the memory of Pamela Anderson's breakthrough role in the movie. So Billy, tell us, make your prediction. We're doing this on Tuesday afternoon. We got the, we should probably set the table first. So right before we try to, so maybe you should do that of what's at stake in today's primary

33:07to be resolved. Hopefully tonight. Yes. Yes. Tell us, God damn it. Yeah. Well, there are two competitive primaries in Texas going on simultaneously on the Democratic side and Republican side to date. This is the most expensive primary in American political history. There has been a hundred and twenty eight million dollars spent in this Senate primary in Texas. And I have to say for everyone outside of Texas, this is just a taste of what is to come. This is what happens when Texas becomes a competitive state. It is really big. It is really expensive and there are very deep pockets here that will spend gobs of money to try to elect the preferred candidate. So already we've had about two weeks of early voting in the early voting so far, nearly a million and a half Democrats have showed up to vote. They are outpacing Republican voters, Republicans are just under 1.3 million voters thus far. That is not unheard of, but it is something to be excited about. And as we speak, folks are out the polls across the state on the Democratic side.

34:07There is representative Jasmine Crockett, the very outspoken Dallas Congresswoman and state representative James Talleriko, sort of breakout star from the Texas legislature who became famous on Joe Rogan and in the New York Times and the Atlantic who has been all across the state. Are those Texas publications, the Atlantic and the New York Times, I can't remember. He has been in plenty of Texas publications. I am starting paying attention when Joe Rogan comes up, run for president, which... But his monkey trick is he is a little more culturally connected to the evangelical movement. I mean, stuff you don't normally hear from a lefty Democrat at least nationally. He is. He is very public with his Christian faith. He talks about how his faith informs his politics, not the other way around. He is the most comfortable, modern day politician I've heard in the wild who is able to talk about the gospel and the Bible and how that informs public policy and the things he believes and doesn't believe. And he is really, really great at it. He is a very calm, measured demeanor. He is an incredibly well-spoken young man.

35:08And he is young, I think, both of our candidates are not that excited. Yeah, well, I mean, I think more than anything, this race and then the Republican race we're going to talk about, seems to be a microcosm of some of the tensions within both parties. Because Jasmine Crocket is the ultimate resistance candidate and her rhetoric, well, let's listen. This will set it up. Here's his... Let's listen to her ad and then let's listen to her closing ad and let's listen to Talleriko's closing ads. Okay, so there are multiple Democrats running for Senate. But only one of us is already fighting Trump to lower cost, protect healthcare and raise wages. Only one of us is taken on bullies from the courtroom to Congress and one. And only one of us is being attacked by Governor Abbott and Billionaires on TV because they know I fight for you and together we can win. I'm Jasmine Crocket and I approve this message because the only thing they fear more than one of us is all of us. And here's Talleriko and his ad.

36:10Billionaires don't just influence politicians, they own them. That's why I don't take corporate pack money. It's why I fought to cap campaign contributions. In the Senate, I'll ban Billionaires from making unlimited secret donations. I've got members of Congress from trading stocks and I'll raise taxes on those at the top to fund tax cuts for the rest of us. I'm James Talleriko and I approve this message because our government should work for all of us, not just Billionaires. So it's much more aimed at a broader audience, I think, than the Crocket at all. I thought her clothes was pretty effective. Talleriko is a guy who thinks that expanding the electorate is the way to win and Crocket's philosophy is that- Just the base. Seize the means of production. Just the base. McKinnon, in some ways in the Republican primary that you can set up and let Billy comment on it, you have the same thing. You have Ken Paxton, the Attorney General, who is all about the base.

37:14And you've got John Corden, who is hoping to get through this primary because he has broader appeal. He's more of a George W. Bush vintage Republican in Texas, which is a dying breed. Yeah. Well, Billy, welcome to the show. It's great to see you. I've heard a lot about you over the years, of course, and I'm familiar with you, but it's remarkable to me how much you love it. Tell your dad to brag about you every once in a while. How much you look and sound just like him, it's spooky, but I also want to say, Billy, the whole reason that I'm even on this podcast is because of your dad, because in 1984, I was working for that newspaper I mentioned where that happened. Once I got out, I decided to be, I covered this Young State Senator Lloyd Dogg at for years, and I really liked him. He was running for the US Senate, and I wandered over to the headquarters to see if I could volunteer. And I was licking and pasting envelopes. And then I saw a sign that said I could, for $5 an hour, I could do data input, which

38:14I did for a couple of weeks. And then your dad came down to the basement one day and said, hey, this is Mark McKinnon. He's the editor of the Daily Taxi, and what's he doing down here in the basement? He should be doing press, sent me upstairs, and then off I went and do a long, long career. I thought you met in jail. You were both clocked up, and then I must have come later. I thought you were going to say he bailed you out. Well, he did. He kind of bailed me up professionally. Anyway, get to the race with you. Yeah, yeah, yeah, we got a campaign here. Fast forward here about 40 years and answer my question. Yes, sir. So this is a, yes, this is, this is a such an interesting dynamic because it represents so much of what's happening in the Republican Party, which is you have an establishment, kind of old line conservative in John Kornin, who has a long story career as a former Supreme Court judge, attorney general, kind of out of central casting. He looks like like the old, like John, big John, it was the other John from Texas, from the 60s.

39:15Connolly. John Connolly. Silver hair. Silver hair right out of central casting. And you know, and the reality is that he has been very, very conservative as Texans like and with Trump almost locked up, but, but he's, but he's not the guy who was the tip of the spirit of January 6th filing lawsuits and Ken Paxton was. And so you can't get any more mega than, than Ken Paxton. And the problem for Republicans is that if they just nominated Kornin, he would, this race would be a walk. It wouldn't be a contest. They would win by 20 point. So they are really hurting themselves by potentially nominating and, and Billy, I'll defer to you on this, but I think Paxton's got a really good shot of the mega-based loves him. That's who's going to be turning out. And then if he's the nominee, that's the one, that's the one guy that Democrats may be able to beat. And listen, I've been saying every cycle, people say, oh, the Democrats are Hispanics rising, demographic tide. You know, Tex is turning blue and I'm always pumping the brakes, but this time it could

40:17be a perfect storm. And I'll remind people that, you know, a betto round a race against an unpopular Senator Ted Cruz, and only lost by two in any, any loss because he kind of nationalized the race made some strategic mistakes. But for those who say, you know, Texas is just a conservative bastion. I refer to it as a betto, you know, he made it close. So this, everything's lining up. Billy, this is going to a runoff, is it, nah? Yeah, certainly. When Wesley Hunt announced for this seat as well, when he threw his hat in the primary, it was destined for a runoff from the get goes by the NRSC through such a fit when Hunt announced Congressman running from Houston, right? Yes. Yeah. Former military guy, African American, charismatic, it's an interesting one. Billy, let me ask you a couple of fast questions here, just to kind of get to it. One, on the Democratic side, teloricos outspending Crockett by like three or four to one, right? Is that correct? More than that. Yeah. So Crockett doesn't have much money. So conventional wisdom is telorico, right? Is that pretty much? And apparently, there's some turnout info today that looks like some first timers are

41:19showing up. And is it correct? The assumption people are making that that'll probably help him more than her, because she's seen as the general election loser by the, at least a lead smart money. Yes. Well, he's seen as interesting. The, all of the sort of tent poles of campaigns would point to telorico having an advantage here. He has massively outspent Crockett. He has had a much more disciplined campaign, a much more consistent message. It has been mired in some controversies, right? But until very, very recently, that was not being reflected in the polling. The polling had been all over the place, literally within the same week, there would be a poll show on Crockett up 12 and another show in telorico up 18. So it was really hard to draw a through line to try to sort of follow. Yeah. And primary polling is tricky anyway. Really hard. Especially, you know, we have the poll that counts tomorrow at the start of the early vote in Texas. We were all worried about ICE agents shooting folks in the street in Minneapolis. And now in election day, we're at war with Iran. So a lot has changed. It's really hard to model. Right. Right. Right.

42:20Well, the president does not believe in being boring. All right. One quick question on the repost. Billy, Billy, let me ask you a quick question if I can. You mentioned the extraordinary early vote turnout. But early vote doesn't necessarily mean more vote. It could just be people who usually vote on election day voting early. Is there any indication that the numbers are actually really going to be up? Well, there's a few things to consider. Of the universe people who have voted early, a small fraction of them are first time voters ever, which is like sort of the purest expanding the electorate argument. But there are a lot of people who either don't vote in primaries who are turning out to vote in this primary or people who don't vote in midterm elections who are turning out to vote in this primary. And that's what's really boosting turnout. Now, we'll see what happens today. Typically, you get 40 to 50% of your voters turning out on election day. The other 50 to 60% will vote early. So there's a shot that we see around two and a half million Democrats turn out. But to your point, Mark, in 2008, Democrats outvoted Republicans in the primary two to one

43:20and Obama lost to them came by 12 points. So it is not necessarily indicative that Democrats are going to win. I think it is a really good measure of excitement level and the strength of both Crockett and Tallerico in reaching their base. What's pretty extraordinary. Well, you need the perfect storm with facts, you know, that's the key. I saw, yeah, I saw early report today. I think it was at 11 a.m. that said that the vote, that just the raw vote in Austin and in Dallas and those two counties were basically even, which was not good news for Crockett. It looked like they're, you know, because Austin is obviously a smaller community than the electorate is smaller than in Dallas. One thing on the spending issue, Mike, before you jump in here, we didn't mention the spending differential between Kornin and Paxton and this is really astonishing. As of the latest count, Kornin and allies had spent $71 million and Paxton, $4.4 million.

44:27I mean, the fact that he is very well may finish first today. I think he does. Yeah, it shows the power that my, my bond, I think he's definitely going to finish first. So here's my question on the our side, Wesley Hunt, the congressman likely to be in third place unless Kornin completely collapses. There's no polling to show at that bad, though his trends are bad. And I don't think his endorsement means that much, but I'm curious about his voters. If he pulls 18, 20% of the Republican primary vote, those are voters voting against the incumbent Kornin, but it also might have a corruption or one of many problems with Paxton is, what's kind of the conventional Austin bar talk on where that vote will go? Split or it in the end doesn't want Kornin. I'm curious what the vibe is about that and how much of what Trump decides to do. He has made an endorsement, right? That's the other part. That's the, it's the entire, it's the entire Kornin strategy is to get this thing to run off and beg Trump for an endorsement. I think we all know sort of intuitively that if Trump really just had his brothers, he

45:30would want Paxton. Paxton is as loyal of a maggot guy as you will find he also is a serial adulterer that's just like Trump. They kind of, I guess they like to hang out with him. He is just like his dad, right? But I think that Kornin strategy is going to be, get this thing to run off and then go and show Trump, pull after pull after pull of Talleriko or Crockett beating Paxton and losing to Kornin and say, look, you're already worried about North Carolina, you're worried about Maine, you're worried about Alaska, you don't need to worry about Texas too. Bring yourself to this and Paxton news. Right. We put it away with one endorsement. Yeah. Save the sentence. Save all this money. We can go into other states. If it is Crockett, then can Trump take a flyer on Paxton? You know, I wouldn't be so sure. It will be a close-for-base, I think. I think you should not underestimate how weary Texas voters have gotten of the constant scandal saga. That being said, it's a much either Talleriko or Crockett, but especially Crockett will

46:33have a lot of fence men in to do if she does end up winning this primary. She has said a lot of stuff that Latino voters have found offensive. She set a lot of things that have alienated Talleriko's base, which, you know, as a Democrat in Texas, you cannot afford to lose anyone, let alone- Well, Billy, but what about Talleriko's comments about- They're very much so. So I was working in 2020 for the Texas Democratic Party doing rapid response against John Kornin. So I've actually worked against both Kornin and Paxton. So I hate them both equally. Said like a troupe of Gell. Yeah, exactly. There's no five on the scale. It's either one or eleven. Yeah. Well, so in 2020, the runoff was between MJ Hagar, who is the sort of establishment candidate in Royce West, who's a black state senator from Dallas. And in their debate, MJ Hagar basically accused Senator West of being a self-dealing politician. Senator West said that was racially charged dog whistle, and they went on from there. And black voters did not forgive MJ Hagar for that.

47:34The work that was done within black communities and with black voters was not done. And MJ ended up- it wasn't really a winnable year in Texas regardless in 2020, but she underperformed the top of the ticket. And I think that's a really valuable lesson that Representative Talleriko needs to learn if he does end up winning this, that he has a lot of work to do. And I think it will be incumbent upon whoever loses this Democratic primary to help with that fence-mending. Yeah. That'll be interesting to watch. Yeah. If any of those cohorts abandon whoever the nominee is, there's no hope. Yeah. Makes sense. Billy, one, a couple of other things. First of all, on the what Trump does, I think that one persuasive argument with him is always, it will cost you an extra $100 million to win that race, because that's going to come out of some of that super PAC money that he's raising. And I think that might be- that might be important. A bunch of his guys are already working for Kornin, but Kornin's going to be a load to get through here. Yeah.

48:35And if Kornin loses the primary by double digits, the stink of death on him is the kind of thing it resonates to Trump. And Telleriko is going to have a big media kiss if he wins. And I don't know if that rattles Trump, and he thinks I got to play it safe for Kornin, but if Kornin looks like a double digit loser in the primary, yeah, that's big. You know, Trump's mind, I want the fighter. Right. Right. So there are a bunch of congressional races across the state today, too. And I wanted to ask you about three, two of our Republicans, Dan Crenshaw, over there, and Houston, who, you know, was a, you know, a war here, everybody. He wears that patch, because he lost an eye, and everybody, he's a very recognizable guy, very, you know, he was known as a strong conservative voice. But he's the only guy who Trump has an endorsed of all the Republicans there. Yeah. Because he's been in, I Trump, a little bit, you know, he's been thorny with Trump to his credit. Just enough, I guess, because I, man, I thought I was really surprised by this. I mean, I think he was lining up to run for a guy.

49:36Now he's got a primary against a conservative, a very, you know, a MAGA conservative cruise as endorsed as a opponent. What happens in that race? Man, I don't have as good a read on the Republican electorate as I do the Democratic electorate, but I will say they are, as MAGA, as far right of a voting block as you will find anywhere in the country. And I think they are smart enough to see President Trump snub of Dan Crenshaw, and I would not be surprised if Crenshaw ends up losing. I will say one caveat to that is Trump is not a unilateral kingmaker. There are examples here and there, especially in Texas of his endorsed candidate's not winning. And then, of course, next day, I didn't actually care about them. And Crenshaw does have a good amount of pull on his own. His district is not, it's pretty well off. It's a strong Republican district, but it's got pretty diverse pockets of it. So I think it will be close. I would not be surprised if Crenshaw loses, but I don't know. It's a coin flip.

50:36I think Crenshaw might pull it off close at the end. What about Tony Gonzalez and South Texas who has scandalized in the midst of this? It's a heartbreaking scandal to look into. And it's really, it's a delicate issue. He just barely won last cycle against the same guy. Against Herrera, the same guy, without this whole scandal following him. Which involved a young woman who worked for him allegedly had a affair with her. She took her own life, not clear whether that was the reason. Yeah. So I don't think Tony Gonzalez is going to win. I think he ends up losing that race. And the last one is already, and his comeback is is primarying an incumbent around Dallas. He dropped out of the Senate race when Jasmine Crockett got in. Is he going to make a comeback here? I think he does. I think he's a really strong candidate in Dallas. He ran a really impressive campaign to win that seed initially before it was Jeremy

51:39Andrew to be a safe Democratic seat. And I think he still has a lot of sway in that part of the state. I think it's unfortunate that he was dragged into the sort of tussle in the Texas Senate race. Quite frankly, I think he came out of it looking a little petty and kind of eager to attack Tolerico, who he has personal disputes with because he didn't want Tolerico to run this Senate race to begin with. I do think all red ends up winning. But again, if we're going to see these huge turnout numbers, I think all that will really benefit from Jasmine Crockett running up the store in Dallas with her base support, who will also be loyal to all red. So I think he does that seat. Well, we've certainly benefited from having the better bagala here. Really bagala, you're as good as your dad says behind your back. And we hope that you'll come back soon and have a have fun tonight. Thank you, pal. Excellent work. We'll do you. Yeah, thank you guys for having me on. Yeah, text us. Let us know we got bets to make.

52:39Okay, gentlemen, we will be back in a minute, but we have to pay a few bills. It's crunch time at work and you need to bring wings to your work day. Visit redbull.com slash getting it done and answer a couple questions about your work style to get a Spotify customized playlist tuned to your productivity. Plus, score a can of red bull on us while you go from to do to done. And remember, red bull gives you wings. Supplies are limited. Terms apply. Visit the website for more information. Hey, Cara Swisher here. I want to let you know that Vox media is returning to South by Southwest in Austin for live tapings of your favorite podcast. Join us from March 13th through the 15th for live tapings of today. Explained, Tuffy Talks, Prof.G. Markets, and of course, your two favorite podcasts, Pivot and on with Cara Swisher. The stage will also feature sessions from Brunei Brown and Adam Grant, Marquez Brownlee,

53:42Keith Lee, Vivian Two, and Robin Arzahn. It's all part of the Vox media podcast stage at South by Southwest, presented by ODU. Visit VoxMedia.com slash SXSW to preregister and get your special discount on your innovation badge. That's VoxMedia.com slash SXSW to register. Really, you should register. We sell out and we hope to see you there. After decapitation strikes against Iran's leadership, what can we expect next? In the escalating war. The big question is, if there is going to be a next strong man in Iran, what kind of strong man will that person likely be? I don't think that there's going to be another powerful cleric, supreme leader. I'm John Feiner, and I'm Jake Sullivan, and we're the hosts of The Long Game, a weekly national security podcast. This week we sit down with Kareem Sahjapur to discuss what to expect in this next phase of the war against Iran.

54:43The episode's out now. Search for and follow The Long Game, wherever you get your podcasts. Let's hit the music. We have a mail bag. It's listener mail bag. Okay, Hakaru, if you have a question for us, you can email us at hacks on tap at gmail.com, what the crafty thing to do is get out your voice memo on your smartphone. Record a short snappy question with your name and email it to us at the same magical email address, hacks on tap at gmail.com, or call the secret off-track betting parlor behind Axelrod's office in Chicago and leave a phone voice mail at this number. 7, 7, 3, 3, 8, 9, 4, 4, 7, 1, I'll repeat it because you can remember that. 7, 7, 3, 3, 8, 9, 4, 4, 7, 1.

55:46I think we have a voicemail contest, so we're supposed to have, we're waiting for more bribes, but we are going to announce a winner here in a couple of weeks, and then one of us or both, I don't know, Hannah's running this thing. We record a filthy pornographic voicemail for you on your machine. That contest, the committee of judges are meeting outside the Juliet state prison to decide and stay tuned. I think we're next week, I'm told, is going to be the big announcement, so thank you for being part of that. Oh boy. Yep. Something to look forward to. Yeah. Our first question is for Professor Axelrod from Eric. Hey, hacks. This is Eric in Santa Barbara, California. I love the show. I was just listening to you guys talk about the SAVE Act and voter ID requirements for voting, and I'm wondering why the Democrats don't try and trade a voter voter for voter ID. Why not just say yes, you have to show an ID, but when you register for an ID, you automatically get registered to vote. Wouldn't that make both parties happy?

56:48Thanks, guys. Yeah. I mean, this whole thing, I do, we're watching this closely because, you know, I think the president knows he's in a deep hole and he's looking for ways to improve his situation. He believes that this voter ID requirement will suppress vote. I believe he believes that just because it requires you going and producing a birth certificate and a or a passport to register to vote and it's complex. And there are a lot of voters who don't have their passports, can't find their birth certificates. But I think it's also kind of a trap because there's voter ID is an 80, 20 issue in this country. And I think Democrats need to find a way to be for voter ID, even if it isn't in the form that the SAVE Act produces, and yes, there could be trade-offs made, ultimately this really should be a state issue. But I have a question for Mike Murphy about this, which is-

57:50Yes. I don't understand. You know, when I look at half the country has passports, I would gather that they over index. I would assume they over index in urban areas and among, you know, upper-scale voters and so on. Does this all help Republicans? Well, it's one of these things where it's not about the policy, it's about the wedge issue. So maybe it marginally helps marginally doesn't, but if the Democrats are dumb enough to walk into an 80% wood shipper, as they often are on these cultural issues, let's have the fight, about the fight and not the policy. I'm with you. They ought to- I kind of like Eric's idea. It's a pretty good trade, at least as a counter-argument. But this is an absolute trap. You're riding into a box canyon here, Democrats. I have one question about this. Isn't in the SAVE Act a prohibition against mail voting, and won't that kill it? I mean, Colorado is 98% voting.

58:51I mean, how are you going to kill that? Yeah. That the Republicans would hate. What the SAVE Act does, it doesn't exactly ban mail-in voting, but it does require you to come in with the said proof of citizenship in person at an election official's office before you can file your mail-in ballot, which essentially- Same thing. It's the purpose of mail-in voting. By the way, mail just add as a footnote that in Colorado, we did a segment on the list for the circus. I'm sorry, I really investigated it. Colorado has 98% of people vote by mail in Colorado, 98. And every single one of those ballots, not just randomly, but every single ballot is verified by an FBI-trained analyst. The Heritage Foundation spent millions and millions of dollars over like a 10-year period trying to find fraudulent votes in the Colorado mail system, and they came up with something like 17 over 10 years. The problem is nobody's drug testing those Colorado voters are all toked. But yes, that could be a problem. Listen, if Cass Patel is training those people, that's good enough for me.

59:54Oh, yeah, they're going to be cutting edge. You just fired all the Iranian intelligence analysts of perfect timing. Oh, that was a story. How about firing the Iranian intelligence? Yeah, let's get rid of the intelligence people. The ludicrous thing about this whole discussion is that there is no evidence that we have a problem with our voting system in the Colorado or anywhere else. That's the craziest thing. How many successful cases does the Trump administration prosecute it? How many, how many fraud cases? Yeah, no, it is an inquiry. Right. They're looking for the real killer. Yeah. Yeah, they're going to find one day. Well, speaking of killers, here's a killer question for you, Mike Murphy, from Cole. Go ahead, Cole. Cole from Missouri, here with a question from Murphy, a Watson made about democratic messaging going into 2026. What about Republican messaging? What would you be doing as a Republican act to send the tide of the blue wave that's coming? Right now, I'd run for tall grass and hope somebody builds an arc, because it's going to be rough, particularly in the House and the midterms. There's some stuff built in.

1:00:55I think the other half of the question, because it's the subtext of a lot of the democratic internal messaging and increasingly Republican is, what about after 26? Big wide presidential primary. What is the definition of the party once Trump is slipping into the rear view mirror? And I think that is going to be the interesting Republican messaging fight. If I weren't incumbent now, I'd be trying to create my own identity from Trump to have a reason to be spared the wave voting. And I'm going to have a little more room to do that the minute filing is over in my district. But keep an eye on the 27 messaging, because it'll be Trump loyalty until that doesn't make a lot of sense anymore. And then you're going to be these people saying Trump's fantastic best president ever. But as we look to the future, and the different people in the party are going to try different approaches. They can't all run as mono message loyalist to Trump. There's no percentage for most of them in that. They've got to find their own thing. So a cold being a frequent listener to the show and obviously very politically sophisticated

1:01:58probably noticed that you sort of sidestep this question and moved on. Of course I did. This is politics. No, look, the answer is... No, no, no, wait, wait, make, I want to pay for this thing and ask you another question. Yeah. That prompted by Cole's question and your answer. One of the guys who seems to me has a huge stake in what happens here in Iran is the front runner for the Republican nomination, JD Vance, because he has really, really state to claim he's right there with Tucker Carlson in the kind of anti-war wing of the Republican party. How does he navigate this? Well, it's really tough for him. All grass. You know, arc. Yeah. Well, he's the highest grass. He can try. Send the arc over. Send the arc over. I mean, he is doing lots of Marco. Why don't you take this question? You know, he's not been as visible. Well, Marco's been everywhere. Vance has three problems. The war is a problem because it's the opposite of his brand. So is he going to be a psychophantic wimp or is he going to get out there and have Trump

1:03:02paid him? His second problem is Trump because if he's the shiny object in the party next year after we lose the house, Trump's going to hate that. It's going to be, it's going to be bad because Trump's not going to handle being yesterday's news. And Vance's other problem is every other Republican person wants to be president. They all agree on one thing. We got a torpedo vance to open up room to actually have it. I think it will happen. I think Vance is going to have a hard time. So this whole war thing has been good-ish for Rubio, at least in the primary, by getting spotlight. And bad-ish for Vance, for being what he's supposed to be against. And remember, he's the tough guy who tells it like it is. Well, not on this. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Here's a question from David for Mark McKinney. This is David in Colorado. I'm curious to get your reactions to the story that Jasmine Crockett had a reporter from the Atlantic kicked out of one of her rallies. It was just me or does this mother Trump like love the show?

1:04:03And just quickly for David, how are things at Jazz 101? Go ahead, McKinney. David in Colorado, McKinney in Colorado as well. Great question. Just for context, the Crockett campaign kicked out an Atlantic reporter from a campaign event because they said she was a rabid hater and had a white woman with a hat, I think with some description. But she had written an earlier article about Crockett. And the sim that she made during that article is that she had called other people for their opinions about Crockett, which Crockett didn't like. So Crockett has a very unusual view of what political journalism is or should be. She doesn't like anybody with critical opinions having any voice in any articles about her to begin with. But listen, I think that this is just, if you want to win campaigns, you've got to expand your universe. You've got to talk to as many people as possible. I'm in the Pete Buttigieg campaign.

1:05:05Talk to everybody. I mean, even going to the lion's den, talk to Fox News, talk to as many audiences as you can. But, you know, that kind of campaigning from Crockett, just to me and I have to have heard of my colleagues, it just throws all kinds of flares about just other problems that are likely to be in the campaign. I mean, if you can't just talk to the Atlantic, which is generally a pretty friendly outlet for Democrats, then I think that it may testify to more significant issues within the campaign. Well, I mean, it does, yeah, and the main issue being, are you playing to two small and audience? Yeah. You know, are you targeting two small and audience? But I must point out that the president has, you know, made quite a party trick of his own by being up on the media and beating up on them in very personal ways and not answering questions and so on. But in the last 48 hours, he, it seems like he's called every reporter doing Washington to lobby them on this war.

1:06:06So it is a back to a recognition that, yeah, there's currency in kicking you around in public. But in private, I kind of want you to understand what we're doing here. It's sort of sort of interesting. Yeah, good point. This is, you know, this is bad. Crockett shouldn't get away with it. Well, the voters may have a say on all of that and I have a feeling they will. So by the time our listeners hear this broadcast, there may be a verdict on that whole race. But listen, she's young and she's, she's talented. And my guess is that it's not the end. If she doesn't win this primary, it's not the end of her cleanup on aisle five. All right, guys, we've exhausted our time here. McKinnon, it's always great to have you. I always, there's a calming effect of watching you and your steps in front of your roaring fire. It is makes us all feel yeah, but it's, it's always great to see your brother and Mike will, we'll be back back shortly. Yeah, thank you, pal. Nice guys. Keep, keep kicking it.

1:07:07Hacker Rouge. All right. Onward. We'll see what next week brings. Look out Greenland. All right. Thank you. Hacks on tap is part of the Vox Media podcast network. The executive producer of Hacks on tap is Hannah Grace McDonald. The assistant executive producer is Sarah Lena Berry. The editor and audio engineer is Seven Morris. The show is also produced by Miriam Finder and Enbre. And Madison Ritolo for more award-winning shows, visit podcast.voxmedia.com.