Matt Miller's NFL Draft Preview

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2:08Westwood One Sports. Bring it up, Benny. 5. Final Hour Power Hour You better you bet on Westwood One Sports, Nick Costos, or awesome crew. The great Matt Miller, and you. The power hour and every hour here on You Better, you bet presented by BetMGM, make

3:09it legendary by downloading the BetMGM app and visiting BetMGM.com. Bring us right now on the show to kick off the power hour on this phenomenal sports Friday. Guy I've known for it, man, are we old? We're kind of old, right? It's funny, man, because now that's what I get from you, Jason, all the guys that used to do radiance the other in the bleach report days are like, oh my God, we've known each other forever. Guys, all we're doing is telling on ourselves, the greater beard isn't enough to let everyone know that we're old. It's like, I was at the senior bowl, Nick, and I had a scout. I was having dinner with, and he was like, God, I got to tell you man, I've been reading you since junior high. I was like, oh my gosh, okay, that's like, and then I realized I've been doing this for 15 years. Like there are kids that learn to read on my mock drafts that are now adults. So it's crazy how, number one, how fortunate I've been to do this for such a long time, but it does make you feel very old. ESPN draft analyst, the great Matt Miller here with us on You Better You Bet, I'm guessing

4:11you follow him on Twitter because a lot of people do at NFL draft scout. I would like to admit something to you, and I don't think I have admitted this publicly yet. Are you ready for it? I have started dying my beard. Oh, I'm not there yet. I mean, I'm there color wise. You're right. I didn't. I did it. I did it. You're very like that. You got to do that. You know, my Midwestern values, I get, I get pushed down the stairs and job in Missouri if I start dying my beard. I love that. I love that. I literally like, I had too many grays in my beard. I said to the girl that does, I was like, can we do something about this? She's like, oh, yeah, I got you. Put some like put some crud on it. It was there for five minutes. Now, I got a perfectly dark beard. But yeah, that, that is my admission that I would like to make publicly to everybody. He said, I die my beard. All right, my friends. Let's talk NFL draft and just, just like to punch this home when Matt said he's been

5:11doing this for a long time, I knew you when you started doing this. And I know how hard you work and that's a good dude. So like, stuff like this doesn't happen by accident. So I've said this to you before publicly and privately, very happy for your success. And I also just want to say this, when my dad died, I didn't get messages from everybody that I knew. You sent me a really nice note. I never forget things like that. Thank you very much for that. Let's talk about some NFL draft coming up here and we'll start with your evaluation of the likely number one overall pick in the draft Fernando Mendoza. And I'll tell you my experience from being at the Super Bowl and talking to a lot of people I respect. It feels like publicly a lot of good things are said about Fernando Mendoza. I had a lot of people I respect off the record, though, tell me they don't think he's going to be very good. The upside isn't very high. I think we're in for an interesting couple of months here as it concerns Mendoza. Where does Matt Miller land on Fernando Mendoza? I mean, he's the best quarterback in the draft and the Raiders are going to take him number

6:12one overall. Barring something catastrophic happening in the next 45 days, he will be the number one overall pick. And I think I wish we could do quarterback evaluations differently because we look at these guys and like, here's your strengths, here's your weaknesses. But how do we build those in the NFL? How do we build around those strengths? And I think that's something where we've seen it with Bryce Young, we've seen it with CJ Stroud, Caleb Williams, Jay Daniels. All these guys have come into the league the past couple of years is we immediately say you're good or bad. And I think a lot of people would like to take back their early Caleb Williams ticks. A lot of people would like to re-evaluate their early CJ Stroud takes. And now look at these guys two to three years later and say, okay, this is a process. And so I think with Mendoza, some that you'll remember is he is 22 years old. He has elevated both programs at Cal and Indiana, great coaching Indiana, great team around him, but he did elevate that program. And so I think the people that come out and say, you know, like, I don't think he's very good. Well, he just did something that only Joe Burrow has done before to go undefeated when the

7:15Highest Matrophy and Winner National Championship. And there were a lot of times that yes, he had a good team around him, but he put that team on his back. The Penn State game is a great example of it. The college football playoffs are a great example of it. So I think yes, Mendoza can be good. Is he going to be Patrick Mahomes? Probably not. Is he going to be Lamar Jackson? Josh Allen? He's going to be on that level, but I think he can be in that top 10 tier, which we've seen with Sam Darnel last year is good enough if you have a team where I'm going to phrase this next question purposefully like this, because I know Ty Simpson's probably going to go in the first round. So it's not like will another quarterback go in the first round or any other quarterbacks in this NFL draft mat or any of them good outside of Mendoza. So I love the way you phrase that. And I don't know. I said this on TV yesterday. We do NFL draft daily, every day ESPN, 3 o'clock, check it out. I said it yesterday. I don't know that Ty Simpson's actually good. And I say that because I've watched every game he's played in. He's only played in 15 games in college.

8:17NFL teams have this magic number, 25 starts. That's what they want from a college quarterback. It's a predictor of success. Guys under 25 starts, we're talking about Mitchell Trebuski. We're talking about Tray Lance, Anthony Richardson, Dwayne Haskins. There's just not a lot of players other than Cam Newton in the last 20 years who are under 25 starts and good in the NFL. So I look at Ty Simpson and I say, are you the guy that I'm going to break the mold for? Am I going to let 6 foot 1, 208 pound Ty Simpson be the guy that I say, 25 starts 30 years of data that say that number matters. Am I throwing that away for Ty Simpson? I'm not. And if I were a general manager, our draft room would say, I'm not going to pretend to be smarter than the data that says not like, okay, if he ends up being the outlier, cool. We're going to bet on the data, not on this one player breaking the mold because that's when you have mistakes, that's when you have reaches. So I look at Ty Simpson.

9:17I hope that in three years this gets played back and people are like, oh my gosh, Matt was wrong. That's what I root for. I root to be wrong. Players would be better than we expect, but I would not be comfortable drafting him as highly as some people are talking. You know, middle of the first round, that's not where I have him graded. I think he's a second round pick. And then you get into the conundrum of what do you do with a guy who's played 15 games in the past four years? Because I think your natural inclination would be, well, you got to get more reps. You got to get more game time. That's what happened to Tray Lance, right? It barely played in college. You get drafted. You need experience. Are you willing to be patient while that guy gets that experience? So he gets those reps because at the quarterback position, we can talk about arm strength, mobility, all of those things. Experience is like the number one trait that I think matters so much because you got to get to that point where you're thinking and not pausing. You know, you're not as paralysis by analysis is what we used to call it. You got to get to that point where you're not thinking you're just doing.

10:19And it's going to take Ty Simpson a while to get there. I didn't think I was going to end up going here, Matt, with this question, but I feel like I need to ask it and you're the perfect person to answer it because, you know, I'll say a lot on the show when we talk about a team like the Arizona Cardinals this year, right? Where or the Jets or the Browns, where it feels like the 2027 NFL draft is going to be the draft for these teams are really going to look to make their hey, where that's the quarterback draft, where it's arch and it's Dante Moore, maybe it's Julian, say, and maybe it's others is the people like me that are saying this, or we write about that, that 27 is going to be the big NFL draft as far as quarterbacks are concerned. I sent a tweet over a year ago, or our post.x, whatever we call those now. And it says, I still go with Twitter, but yeah, we can call it whatever, yeah. So year and a half ago, I posted the 2027 draft to be the best I've ever evaluated. That is a year and a half ago. And now we have players like Julian Sain, who hadn't even played at that point.

11:19We have Brendan Soresby, who is going to be a Texas Tech this year. And I think we'll be talking about him as a potential top 10 pick. So we know about Arch, Jeremiah Smith, Ryan Williams, Colin Simmons, Dylan Stewart, Leonard Moore the corner from Notre Dame, like it is a loaded year, a seat in the tackle who's not LSU from Colorado. It is a loaded, loaded class. And that's not counting the guys that we think are going to pop off because they're now in year three. Right? You get Cam Cole going to Texas with Arch Moore. He's probably going to have a pretty dang good year. You get transfer guys that Isaac Brown from Louisville, they're running back, almost got the portal. He's going to be a first round prospect. So you're not wrong to say that. And I've had this conversation with NFL teams where they're like, hey, you would have to give me a first-born child to get a 2027 top 100 pick for me, which is why we saw this Raider's Ravens trade fall part. I was shocked that Baltimore was willing to give up a 2027 first-round pick because no, I'm not giving up a 27 first-rounder.

12:22There's no way I would do that. That's so funny, right? And the Ravens are hoping to pick at the end of the first round. I think that's how loaded we think the 2027 NFL draft might be. You better, you bet on this Friday, Nick Kostos, Westwood One Sports, joined by my buddy, ESPN NFL draft analyst, Matt Miller. You can follow him on X, Twitter, whatever, at NFL draft scout. Let's talk about Notre Dame running back Jeremiah Love, Matt, thought to be, and I think you've said this right, maybe the best pure football player in the class. Where does Jeremiah Love rank for you among some of the great running backs we've seen come out? Recently, St. Juan Barclay, Bijan Robinson, others, where does he slot in that group? He's at the top. I mean, you can make an argument that he is on par with St. Juan and Bijan. What I thought were elite, like rare running back prospects, basically everything you could want at the position. He is there. He's above Jameer Gibbs. He's above Ashen Gentee. Pick your other first round running backs. He's above those guys. He's the best player in this class, in my opinion.

13:23It's everything you want, six foot, 214 pounds. He runs with power between the tackles, but he has his speed to rip off multiple 90 yard touchdown runs over the last two years. He's a great receiver, not just out of the backfield, but you can split him out wide, you can run routes. He's everything you want. Contact balances elite, visions elite. There's a game where he hurdles a dude on the sideline, and somehow almost accelerates as soon as he lands. It's ridiculous. Just the gifts that he has, but then the toughness, the vision, everyone I've talked to raves about him as a human being as well. So I think he's pretty close to just like a perfect prospect. I don't know what the downside would be. You know, this isn't a great Notre Dame team. You can't even say, well, it's Notre Dame's offensive line was okay last year. This is not, you know, he's not running behind in all American offensive line. So I think he's just incredibly special, and he should be drafted in the top five picks. I saw if the Giants take another running back in the top five, I might freak out, but

14:24obviously not a criticism of Jeremiah Love as a player. And just I watch for everyone that loves football in the audience and that's everybody Matt saying that love as a prospect. We'll see what happens at the NFL level better than Jumeir Gibbs that raised my antenna. I'm very excited to watch him in the NFL. Matt, it seems like there's a consensus, right, that there is a group of three receivers that stand above the rest in the NFL draft. McIelement of USC, Jordan Tyson, Arizona State, Carnell Tate from Ohio State. Who is Matt Miller's favorite of those three receivers and why? Well, you and I go back far enough. You remember my, like, Alshon Jeffrey and Michael Thomas love affairs, you know, standing on the table for those guys when no one else was. So I actually am a little bit of an outlier this year too. I think McIelement from USC is the best. Carnell Tate is close, Jordan Tyson, Arizona State, if it wasn't for the injuries, I think would be higher for me. But lemon, I look at someone who can win with route running. He can win with angles and leverage and toughness.

15:25I'm trying to get away from evaluating wide receivers who can only get open because they're faster. They can only get open because they're big. I look at the NFL and see Pukin Okua and JSN and Justin Jefferson and the great receivers in the NFL right now are rat runners, primarily. Lemon is a rat runner. That's where he does his work. That's how he gets open. He can play in the slot. He can play out wide. Is that middle of the field toughness that he has? And I would tell people, go watch the Iowa game. If you want to see what a guy looks like when he's carrying his team, there's so many moments where he knows he's going to get rocked going over the middle, but he doesn't give up. It's that toughness. I think 10 catch just like 154 yards that day, but he, to me, is the best receiver in this class. And somebody that's going to immediately boost any offense that he gets in. We mentioned Carnell Tate from Ohio State. There are three Ohio State defenders, Matt, that I feel like a lot of people, maybe you included, right? I believe we're going to go on the top 10 of this draft. And they're all interesting. Our Valarice is kind of like the edge linebacker, sunny styles, off ball linebacker, and safety

16:29Caleb Downs. You would think that these would be guys that everyone would just be really excited for, but Reese, there are questions because what position does he play? Styles and off ball linebackers, that worth a top five top 10 pick. Caleb Downs, safety is that worth a top five top 10 pick. Give me like maybe like 20 to 30 seconds on each of these guys. Your thoughts on them is pros, Reese, Styles, Downs from Ohio State. Yeah, so I think Caleb Downs might be, if it's not Jeremiah Love, it's Caleb Downs on who the best, just pure football player in the classes. If you can start for Nick Sabin as a true freshman and be the leader of the secondary, you're probably pretty darn good at your job. And he has just been good ever since Alabama, Ohio State. What he did for Matt Patricia's defense last year, the versatility on the back end, I think at a minimum, you're getting boot of Baker. Who is in these two-time off-pro? That's who Caleb Downs can be. So, is that worth a top 10 pick? I think it is, maybe not for every team, but I think it is. You get to Sonny Style, send conversation, off ball linebacker, how valuable are they?

17:29These are all I've been a linebacker for a couple of years. He was a safety before that, 6'5, 2'45, elite athletic tools, someone that you can use as a mismatched player in the middle of the field. He can be, he can be Nick Imanori, who is a safety, the Seattle Seahawks, but Sonny Style has to be a very similar player, someone that just erases guys in space with his length, with his speed. And he has some pass rush, upside. He's going to have 4-5 sacks a year as a linebacker because he's so good at blitzing, at chasing, pulling guys down, and then the open field speed. Then you have Arvelry, so you're right, it's the, what is he? He only had 97 pass rush snaps last year, he had 6'5 sacks. So, there is going to be a little bit of a build-up time with him. He's more Micah Parsons than Abdul Carter coming out of college, if you remember those guys from Micah. He really, never rush the pass their full time, he missed that COVID year, and then it was a project, once he got in the league, whereas Abdul Carter went to edge rush for full time, his final year at Penn State. So, I think you're going to have to build up the pass rush toolbox for him, but he is

18:32incredibly talented, he's violent with his hands, he is relentless with his pursuit. So I think each of those guys, including Karnault, take the receiver, Ohio State should have 4 picks in the top 10, which, you know, when you hear that, you understand why they were almost unbeatable the last two years, until they ran into India. I can't, I said, and Miami, I guess, I still can't believe Ohio State can win or really get to, didn't, couldn't get to the national championship game, maybe that's because I bet them. David Bailey from Texas Tech, or Ruben Bain from Miami, or both, two huge edge rushing prospects that a lot of people not expect to go on the top 10. You know, I would say David Bailey, and it's kind of nixed similar to our conversation about Thai Simpson and quarterbacks. You could look at metrics, arm length at 31 inches, that's kind of the low end of where you would like it got to be. Ruben Bain came in at under 31 inches. In the last 30 years, a pass rusher has never been drafted in the first round, what's up 31 inch arms. So you're betting on an outlier again. To take that one step further in the last 30 years, there's not been a player with 10

19:35extra more in an NFL season under 31 inch arm length. So you're double betting. Not only are you saying, we're going to break the mold to make you a first round pick, we're now expecting you to break the mold as a pass rusher to become something that no one else has been in the NFL. So I look at that, and people ask me, how do you use analytics? How do you use data in your job, just like that? I use it to say, okay, no one's ever done this before. Do I believe that you as a player have the traits to change that, to break that mold? Urban Bane's power, leverage, are impressive, but the arm length shows up on tape. It really does. So then you get to David Bailey, who, a first year starter last year at Tech, he blew up. He was fantastic. He has speed. He has enough length. But it is going to be about usage with him. He's not an incredibly powerful player against the run. I think he would probably be better suited to a 3-4 defense than a 4-3. But that speed, that hooker on the edge is crazy good. And both guys, we're on really, really talented defensive lines. You know, I came as a result of Miami will probably be a top 40 pick.

20:37Lee Hunter from Texas Tech will probably be a top 40 pick. These guys were surrounded by talent that allowed them to shine. And so I think that's when you project them forward, you say, okay, we, you, they both have to have a balance, a counterbalance on the, on the defensive lines so they can continue to get those one-on-one looks that they got college. Final question, 30 seconds for the answer. Did you see the new Tennessee Titans uniforms? I have, I haven't, yeah, I was so busy last night. And this morning I've been doing media around. So I haven't seen them yet. So just spoiler alert. They're like the Houston, they're, they're the Houston oilers like slight differences. But it's basically the old Houston oilers uniforms. That is a subtext for this question. What is Matt Miller's all time favorite NFL uniform in terms of visuals and why in 30 seconds? It's the Patriots red jersey with the white helmet with the Ellis on it. I think that's a bad page. A white helmet. Yeah. White helmets, red jersey, such a, such a good look for them. I love that.

21:38And Falcons red helmet black jersey. There's so many, so many people. What I'm telling you what all the people that are like a lot of people are bitching about this, like this is it belongs to Houston. How could they do this? I don't everyone wants teams to go back to throwbacks. Our team just did it and everyone's complaining about it. I don't understand, but this culture, identity crisis in Nashville. Well, they've chosen their identity. Nationals identity is now Houston. That you're the best at NFL draft scout ESPN NFL draft analyst ESPN.com ESPN NFL draft daily. My friend, thank you very much. Stay well. Hope to see you down the line. Yes, sir. Thank you. Matt Miller joining us here on the show. I loved his answer on Jeremiah love. Maybe the best football player in the draft better prospect than Jermior Gibbs. That goes noted. Also, he likes Mackay lemon as the best receiver in the draft ahead of Carnell Tate ahead of Jordan Tyson. Really, really good stuff from Matt Miller.

22:42Do you like good stuff? I do. Let's get more of it on the other side when we'll be joined by CBS Sports College basketball analyst, the legendary Clark Kellogg on this Friday on Westwood one sports. Then it's backed out of their trade for Max Crosby. Will he return to the Raiders or will the elite pass rusher be traded again to another team? We'll let you know what happens next and what it means in this historic saga, Westwood one sports. Transform your bathroom with a beautiful quality of bath planet. As a trusted leader in bathroom renovation, bath planet is earned a good housekeeping seal, a symbol of quality and consumer confidence for over 100 years. Get half-off installation or 18 months with no interest in no payments. Whether it's tough replacement, a shower replacement, or a tub to shower conversion, bath planet makes your custom bath fast, easy and affordable. This special offer is only available by calling 800-208-8750. That's 800-208-8750 paid for by bath concepts industries.

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