Market lessons from 2024

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Friday, December 27, 2024. This is Nelson John, let's get started. Former Prime Minister and finance minister during the 1992 economic liberalisation, Dr. Manmohan Singh, passed away at the age of 92 at Delhi’s AIIMS last night. Dr. Singh, who is often credited with opening up the Indian economy, retired from the Rajya Sabha earlier this year—ending a 33-year stint in the Upper House of Parliament. After a soaring streak, India’s residential property market took a downturn in 2024, experiencing a 4% drop in home sales. This marked the first slowdown since the pandemic, with a corresponding decrease in new project launches. However, despite the dip in sales and new supplies, property prices didn't follow suit and instead climbed higher, writes Madhurima Nandy. In the top seven cities, residential sales didn't reach the peaks anticipated for 2024, as reported by Anarock Property Consultants. Election activities and a sluggish process for project approvals contributed to fewer new project launches. While sales volumes dropped, the value of sales actually increased by 16% due to rising home prices and larger unit sizes.  As the allure of prestigious campus placements at Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) begins to wane in the face of a global economic downturn, the institutions are rallying behind their students, especially those who have missed the initial rush of high-profile recruiters. In response to the challenging job market, IITs are introducing innovative support systems to aid their students in securing employment. Recognizing the importance of mentorship and preparation, IIT Delhi has launched the "Call a Friend" program. This initiative connects final-year students with peers who have successfully navigated the placement process. The idea, Devina Sengupta reports, is to provide real-time advice and emotional support from those who understand the stress and demands of securing a good job offer. In its annual report on the trends and progress of banking for the fiscal year 2023-24, the RBI outlined a series of potential regulatory changes aimed at strengthening the banking system further. Gopika Gopakumar reports on the changes that include eliminating prepayment penalties on floating rate term loans for small businesses, tighter oversight of inter-linkages between banks, NBFCs, and private credit firms, and more stringent regulations for payment aggregators. RBI is also set to finalize guidelines that will require financial institutions to disclose climate-related financial risks, incorporating scenario analysis and stress testing to gauge these risks better.  In India, niche American dramas and smaller Hollywood movies like Tom Hanks' Here and Michael Keaton’s Goodrich are carving out success at the box office by appealing to a specific audience that doesn't mind shelling out a bit more for tickets. These films, often showcased in select urban theaters, come with a higher price tag, sometimes over ₹500 a pop. Despite this, they manage to attract a dedicated crowd that values quality storytelling over blockbuster effects. Lata Jha spoke to industry insiders who explained that these movies, typically acclaimed at festivals or tipped for awards, draw viewers who appreciate premium content and are prepared to pay for it. Films like Here and Goodrich have made respectable earnings in India by targeting their ideal audience with higher ticket prices, balancing out their more modest box office hauls. The Sanskrit word Simhavalokana refers to the retrospective glance of a lion as it surveys the path it has traversed. This idea captures the essence of reflecting on key lessons from the financial markets in 2024. This year offered several critical takeaways for investors. Industry consolidation emerged as a strong theme, particularly in sectors like telecom and airlines in India. With the market share of top players increasing significantly, this trend highlighted the potential for multi-year returns from survivors in consolidated industries. Economic events also underscored the dominance of climate-driven food inflation over monetary policy. Valuation metrics also delivered important lessons. Markets in politically and economically troubled regions like Argentina and Pakistan delivered unexpected returns, proving that bad macroeconomic news is often already priced in. Meanwhile, IPOs emerged as a cautionary tale. Swanand Kelkar, managing partner at Breakout Capital Advisors, shares market lessons from the year gone by.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices