March Madness Strategy: Chalk or Contrarian

0:00On March 17th, filling out a March Manage Bracket is all about strategy, especially with the 2026 NCAA Tournament heating up. For small pools, stick to the favorites or chalk picks, since top ranked teams have won nearly 71% of tournament games over the last 23 years. This approach maximizes your expected points by going with high probability outcomes. In larger pools though, go contrarian to stand out. Back in 2019, Duke was the heavy favorite with a 34% chance to win at all, but picking Virginia, who had just 22%. Percent odds yet only 8% bracket support paid off big when they took the title. That move cuts down on ties for the champion pick. Pool location plays a role too, as fans often buy us toward local teams like Michigan and an Ann Arbor group or Duke among alumni. With so many rooting for those squads, your safer early round chalk picks can carry you if you nail a smart upset later. This year, Michigan and Duke lead the future's odds, but both miss key point guards.

1:03Caleb Foster for Duke with a broken foot and LJKs in 4. Michigan After an ACL tear, meanwhile, Arizona tops some rankings, despite starting 13th in pre-season polls, making them a prime contrarian option as a number one seed. Check pick percentages on sites like Yahoo, before submitting multiple brackets, mixing both strategies and you could edge out the crowd come. Championship weekend