Magic of the Cup: A Tad Predictable Podcast

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2:01Hello and welcome to another episode of tad predictable episode 209 of the show and we are grateful for you joining us. It's a late one for us in terms of kicking off the podcast because we have to endure not only at a time, not only extra time, but penalty shootouts in the last FA Cup game of round five. West Ham versus Brentford. West Ham going through on penalties five to three, obviously. Not the right moment, not the right time to be doing a pinnaker if you don't go Tara. I mean, whenever it works, it looks spectacular when it doesn't work, especially in the way that it happened in this shootout. You almost want to, well, you basically want the ground to swallow you up because if you stay standing, which he did called the bluff and basically the ball just gets lobbed straight up the goalkeeper. Easiest save he's going to make probably for the rest of the

3:06season to be honest. So unfortunate for Brentford. But you have to give credit to West Ham with the penalties that they took. Every single one of them was pretty much in the corner or at least hit hard enough way. Even when Kelleher guessed the right direction, he wasn't getting anywhere near the ball. And we know how good Kelleher is in penalty shootouts. Liverpool fans specifically will know how good he is in penalty shootouts. He was the most successful Liverpool goalkeeper in penalty shootouts. And he also scored a goal in penalty shootouts as well in the lead cup final couple of years back. So if it got to that point, I'm no doubt he would have taken one and I'm pretty sure he would have been confident to score. But alas, they go out in the fifth round of the FA Cup. Poster for West Ham, after a difficult season, they've still got business to take care of from a Premier League perspective. But they continue their march to Wembley.

4:10They go through in the FA Cup. We'll get into it a little bit with regards to the ramifications of making it this far in the FA Cup for the respective teams involved. But as it stands, the draw happened tonight as well. We already know who's going to be playing who in the quarter finals. We've got Man City who will be hosting Liverpool. Chelsea will be hosting Port Vail. Arsenal will be hosting Southampton. And it was going to be the winner of West Ham, West Ham, Brentford game. We now know that to be West Ham, they're going to be hosting leads united. And these games are going to take place on the weekend of April the 4th and 5th. And you won game away from Wembley. What a special moment for the likes of Port Vail, Southampton, who obviously aren't in the Premier League. And then you look at teams like West Ham and then leads considering the seasons that they've had. And the struggles that they've had,

5:10the season, imagine what a day out at Wembley could do for one of those clubs. At least one of those clubs is guaranteed a place in the semi-finals. Then for the likes of Chelsea, they've got yet another potential banana skin. We saw how close they came to being eliminated against Rexham. We'll see whether or not they are more concentrated, more aware of the situation against Port Vail and Man City versus Liverpool. I mean, from a Liverpool perspective, their record at the Etihad is quite appalling. So I'm sure they would have, their hearts would have skipped a bit, a little bit, seeing that fixture pop up. But again, it's a cup, quarter final. You never know, going into those games, you don't know what the, what's at stake outside of those games. And we'll touch on that a little bit more when we get into the first topic that we're going to be discussing. But for this episode, we've got three topics that we want to discuss,

6:16timely topics that I think are relevant to the landscape of football at this present point in time. I think it's okay for us to jump into the first topic because it is with regards to the FA Cup. It's whether or not, you know, taking into account the fifth round, whether or not the magic of the FA Cup is still real. Obviously, I mentioned the teams that have gone through to the quarter finals. The way they got there was Liverpool played, obviously, Friday night. They beat Wolves 3-1, Arsenal beat Mansfield 2-1, Man City held off Newcastle. They won 3-1 in that game. Chelsea, we mentioned they went through to add a time extra time. They beat Rexham 4-2. Rexham, obviously, getting that red card as well in that game. Quite a pivotal

7:18moment in that game. Southampton, they upset Fulham. 1-0 leads to care of business against not Norwich. They beat Norwich 3-0, Portville beat Sunderland 1-0 and Westham went through on penalties, 5-3 after a 2-2 draw against Brentford. Now, you look at the FA Cup. It's not a museum piece. It's a tournament that I think has had its ups and downs in terms of attempts to revive the magic that is the FA Cup over the last couple of seasons. We've seen heavy criticism not too long ago for the big clubs. One could say lack of care or lack of serious intent. With some of the lineups that they were putting up for FA Cup games, especially in the early rounds, we saw a lot of big teams getting knocked out early and people were quite critical of

8:25some of the bigger teams and the teams that were putting up in how early they were getting knocked out of FA Cup games. Based on the quarterfinals this time around, you see the likes of Mancity and Liverpool who have been in the title race for the last four or five years. Likes of Chelsea who are a Perennial Champions League side, Arsenal, obviously, they're on the ascent. They've been the most consistent team in the Premier League over the last three years, I would say. Then you've got the fairy tale story in Portville. You've got the underdog story in Southampton and you've got two teams that are struggling towards the bottom end of the Premier League in West Ham and Leeds that are looking to do something special in the FA Cup as well. So I think there's a nice blend of teams this time around. We've seen in the past.

9:26Sometimes it sways one way or the other. Sometimes we've seen just the big teams just dominating and filling out the vast majority of the quarterfinals teams and then at times we've seen some shocking results and spectacular results from an entertainment perspective and we've seen a lot of underdogs step up to this stage of the tournament. But I do think that the FA Cup is giving us a live experiment in competitive economics and psychology. You look at the results, you look at the fact that the heavyweights in their respective fixtures largely progressed. City, Liverpool, Arsenal, it tells you that depth and quality still matters and you certainly look at the teams that those respective clubs were able to put out there with rotations but yet looking to still looking

10:29quite strong is a testament to their squad building and the respective recruitment teams that they have. But obviously the headline that will stick out is that Port Vale win over Sunderland. I don't think that's one of those nostalgic situations and necessarily I think it's quite an interesting data point sort of about resource allocation because I mentioned the squad depth that a city in Liverpool and Arsenal have and I'm sure all three of those teams would complain about their lack of squad depth and where they could have improved and where they're certainly from a livable perspective. I've mentioned where they've lacked in terms of building squad depth to the levels that like an Arsenal have for instance and even Arsenal. The best built squad in the Premier League this season, they'll complain that they've left themselves short in certain

11:32areas. So it's a never-ending cycle, it's a never-ending pursuit of perfection but you look at a Sunderland, you look at the squad selection, you look at the rotation policy that has to take place in a season like this, in a season in the Premier League where at the very least you're competing in three tournaments, you've got the Premier League, you've got the Carabell Cup and you've got the FA Cup as well. You've got players that are in your squad that have been training all season long, haven't been playing much football, you want to reward some of these players as well, you want to give them a chance to show that they're capable. You also are putting out a squad by all accounts that even if it is heavily rotated, like we saw with a Fulham for example, nine changes in their team that played this weekend against Southampton, you're still confident that as heavily rotated as it may be, there is enough in there for you to still go and win that game and you can

12:39always supplement that by having a really strong bench which is what Fulham did as well and it's that age-old argument of do you start your starters, take the lead and then take them off or do you hold them back, you know, almost wait to see if you need to call them off the bench, if you don't create because then now you've fully rested them, if you do at least you've got them as an option to come on which West Fulham tried to do and unfortunately for them it didn't quite work out, but there are different ways to go about this, I also want to draw attention to the Rexham Chelsea game obviously, you know, heartbreak if you're a neutral or a Rexham fan for Rexham because they certainly put Chelsea to the test, they came with a game plan, they played their brand-of-football, Chelsea again another team that you know has a deep squad able to rotate in this game, but

13:44with those rotations comes a lack of chemistry, it comes a lack of cohesion, comes a lack of game time for a lot of these players that are trying to get up to wraps with the pace of the game for example and all of these interesting intricacies play out in a tournament like an FA Cup where you know, on paper you might look certainly a lot stronger than the team you're facing, but in practice, from a chemistry perspective, from a cohesion perspective, it doesn't always work out as seamlessly as, you know, just putting out players on paper and expecting them because they're better players or certainly from a perspective basis that they are perceived as better players, footballs played on the pitch, it's not played on score sheets or on paper.

14:46Well, I think you look at the other element of it from a modeling perspective, it introduces I think two very measurable effects that have consequences for the Premier League and the run-in. First and foremost, you look at Flex2 congestion, teams still in the cup, they face additional, you know, matches, they're going to have to, as I mentioned, it's penciled in for the weekend of the fourth and the fifth of April, so the game that you would have been playing then are going to have to be caught up at some point in time and then some of these teams are also involved in other tournaments as well in European football, so it's not just the case of, you know, the FA Cup that they have to concentrate on, they've got Premier League responsibilities as all the teams have and then you might have European responsibilities for Man City and Arsenal, they've got Carabao Cup responsibilities and then obviously FA Cup responsibilities as well, so that can

15:52weigh on a team and we've seen at times a reduction in expected points per game if, you know, you're having to rotate and you've got quite a shallow squad or the chemistry isn't quite there for the players that are coming on and having to step up and deputise for maybe your traditional starting 11 or even traditional, you know, court 13, 14 players that you usually rely on throughout the season. That's going to be interesting, especially when you look at the fact that from a West Ham perspective, does that then give an advantage to say a Tottenham? If West Ham go for on the FA Cup, but obviously Tottenham have European matches to worry about as well, so maybe that evens it out a little bit as well. The leads again, I've mentioned and I

16:52maintain this that leads I think are going to be safe, I think you look at their form, you look at the way they're playing, they are playing like a mid-table team and that's going to be enough to see them to safety this season and then high up the league table, you look at a Chelsea and a Liverpool that are fighting for Champions League positions, adding an additional tournament in the form of the FA Cup, quarterfinals, what does that do for their fixture congestion and then obviously the two big boys on top of the Premier League at this point in time asked more with a very healthy advantage at this present point in time and that Man City trying to hunt them down again. What ramifications do these extra games have on these teams we will see obviously in due course? The second thing that you want to also take into account is momentum, you know, a cup upset or a gritty extra time win or you know, winning in penalties like West Ham did, those type of wins

17:56can change things, they can change the expected value of the next league games because confidence all of a sudden shoots up, there's a belief and a real quantifiable variables in short-term performance for players, sometimes you can see almost, you know, they're playing with their chest out more, they're calling for the ball, they want the ball because of positive performances in cup games and when you do rotate, like let's say a Liverpool did in the FA Cup and you get positive performances from, for example, you know, a Rio Angamoa, that can catapult them in terms of their status within the squad, their importance within the squad, the level of minutes that they've been getting before, that game and after the game can drastically change, you know, for the better, if you have a performance like that, so all of these type of momentum building scenarios

18:58almost develop from it and then obviously there's the overall team momentum. There is an argument to be made for playing regularly and winning regularly and I think the team this is most important for is Arsenal. When you're top of the Premier League, you want to just be winning games, yes, they're, they're, you know, at this present point in time, they're involved in every single tournament, they could win every single tournament as things stand, that breeding that culture of just winning games, you know, week in, week out, it's, it's so helpful for the league, it helps with the rhythm of the team, it helps with the tempo of the team, it helps with the competitive determination of the teams, it helps also with just confidence of knowing that we can get wins in so many different ways because not all games are one the same way and being able to continue winning gives you the opportunity to win in different ways which

20:04again gives you that assurance in future games of well, you know, we win this similar situation last time out, we ended up getting the result, we ended up getting the win that we needed and it just creates that muscle memory of just being a team of winners and I think that's very important for Arsenal, especially a team that has come, come up short, you know, on numerous occasions under Michael Arta, obviously they won early on in his tenure at the club but since then they've not really been able to get over the line, getting these wins, you got your short-term goals, you got your medium-term goals, you got your long-term goals, the short-term goals being, you know, the game that's in front of you, the next game, go and win that next game and if they can keep doing that it's going to allow them to build the momentum and form, we've seen it so far this season and you know that then ticks off the medium-term goal and then it can result in you getting those holy grail long-term goals in the form of trophies as that is the currency for Arsenal this season.

21:08So it will be interesting to see the ramifications for the relegation zone, the ramifications for teams fighting to get into European football and the ramifications for the team, the two teams that are fighting for the Premier League title, I hope I'm not being disrespectful to, you know, the likes of Aston Villa and a man united by not including them in the title race but in my opinion it's a two-horse race, I don't see any of the other teams catching up to and event and you know potentially overtaking Arsenal in first place and even city are struggling to keep up pace with Arsenal at this present point in time we saw how huge the results were last-hand arch we were watching Premier League football. So from my perspective I guess the last thing I really want to touch on specifically with regards to this is just that rotation and I mentioned why teams would rotate as I mentioned you know they are players you want to reward,

22:13they are players you want to keep engaged and and and feel like they're they're a part of the team. A lot of that is done in FA Cup and Karabakh Cup games you also want to reward people that are trading well and maybe haven't quite gotten games in the Premier League you want to give those that might have niggles from your starting core players a chance to recover you assess the team that you're playing and and you pick a squad you know that reflects you know that rotation but also reflects a confidence that you can still get through that team. For Fulham they've come out under heavy criticism for the level of rotation I think that the I get why they rotated in in the way that they did I think the only thing that would annoy me if if I was a if I was a Fulham fan is we're in the FA Cup for round this is the last

23:23trophy we're fighting for for this season I want to you know I would look at the league table and I would say I you know we're currently sitting in 10th place with 40 points that holy grail 40 point mark obviously you know we've mentioned on this podcast that that 40 point mark is more here's historical trope than what is actually needed to stay in the Premier League between 34 and 36 points you you can stay in the Premier League based on recent history so Fulham are well beyond that and they've even gone past the trope 40 points so they're safe they're not getting relegated this season right why would you not prioritize the FA Cup you're not gonna it will be hard for you to get into Europe I appreciate they are currently four points off of

24:25Brentford who sit in seventh and maybe that's the argument that they would be making that well we're still thinking we still have a chance to get into European football and that's our primary target to get as high up the Premier League table as possible we know the financial rewards in getting into European football so I appreciate that but if if if I've reached the fifth round two rounds away from Wembley I would be prioritizing the FA Cup we saw what it did to you know for Crystal Palace and their players last season and their fans last season as well you know getting an FA Cup win and FA Cup is also another avenue to get into Europe as well so if I'm if I'm a Fulham fan I'm bitterly disappointed that we didn't put all our eggs in trying to get as far as we possibly can in the FA Cup if rotation was to take place I would have

25:25preferred rotation take place in the Premier League where we are already safe and then try and be ambitious and chase that trophy so that would be the only other thing I would mention that that would be my criticism towards Fulham and and and I think it was justified that they were heavily criticized for their rotation and the level of rotation they had in their squad in their game but again you look at the team they put out they would have been confident that they can still go on and when that game you look at you know the issues silver had with the officiating in the game as well you can feel that they were hard done by but at the end of the day in Cup competitions if you lose your route there's there's no there's no time to recover there's no time to feel sorry for yourselves at the end of the day you're out and I guess that's part of the Cup's magic and it's what keeps it alive results like this are Southampton winning because it changes the tactical choices that teams have to make it changes the psychological

26:32momentum that teams get from these results it's not mystical I think it's quite measurable and for clubs with thin squads clubs you know the Cup is a hazard it is a potential banana skin and for clubs needing belief I think it's a great opportunity you look at a Liverpool for example who have not had a great season you go for on the FA Cup it can start to instill some belief in that team that okay maybe we're not as bad as we have been performing you know throughout the rest of the season and that could then kept catapult you towards the end of the season to pick up a level of momentum and form and try and do something special that's my thoughts on the FA Cup good luck to the teams that are in through to the quarter finals what we're going to do is we'll take a quick break we'll come back and we will discuss the next topic that I'm interested to talk about we'll be right back of these short messages start your day with Quaker protein instant oatmeal

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28:40at Taco Bell all white meat chicken nuggets breaded into her t-a chips wrapped up sauce and all inside a slider-sized crunch wrap choose from creamy chipotle or jalapeno honey mustard well there we go life still full of choices the new crispy chicken crunch wrap slider a brand new classic only at Taco Bell if participating in those Taco Bell locations for a limited time and a lot of supplies last all right we are back we are discussing um three topics on this podcast today episode 209 of attack predictable the first topic that we discussed was the FA Cup and whether that magic of the FA Cup was still alive the next topic I want to discuss and a lot of thanks have to go to our executive producer Mr. Guy Drinkle who selected Tottenham as the team that a tad predictor or a tad predictable podcast would be rooting for over the last nine games of the Premier League season it's a transition on this show we pick a team uh towards the end of the season that we're going to be rooting for we've had some positive success with regards to the

29:46teams that we've rooted for so hopefully if you're you know if you're Tottenham there's not a lot to cling on to I appreciate that then I you know by all means cling on to the fact that every time we've picked a team they've picked their momentum has picked up their form has picked up you know I remember we went early a couple of seasons ago when Steven Gerald got fired from Aston Villa and as soon as he got fired we chose Aston Villa as a team for a tad predictor or podcast and they obviously shot up the table and ended up having an incredible back end of the season there and we've helped brighten get into European football for example we've we've had some special moments with the teams we selected so hopefully it's a good omen for Tottenham that they ended up being selected we had quite a quite an intense discussion if you do want to go

30:47back and listen to that episode definitely go and check that out it's it was a previous episode episode 208 where executive producer guide drink called chose from a selection of teams that I pitched for for him in terms of which teams we thought would would would be great contenders for it Brentford were there Westham were a team born with were the other one along with Nottingham Forest and of course Tottenham and of those teams we end up going with Tottenham Hotspur so where does that put us it puts us in an awkward position because we then have to look at the the reality of the situation this is a team that is the worst team from a formed perspective in the Premier League a team that has not won a game in 2026 and what could be potentially a devastating situation if relegation happens for Tottenham

31:53we want it to know what is what does that cost what does that look like what does that feel like you know for Tottenham it's it's a topic that I'm sure Tottenham fans have largely started to discuss now it's a topic that they try to avoid as long as possible but again when you look at the form table when you look at how the team is playing from an analytical perspective and from just an eye test perspective they are worrying signs and you then start wondering okay this could be a reality and what does this all mean I think you have to separate the financial mechanics of it from the cultural consequences spurs generated about 690 million pounds last year we've seen obviously clubs have been releasing their their financials over the last month and you know relegation could cut income at spurs by an estimated 261 million so from that 690 million and spurs have been

33:02I don't know if it's disrespectful to say punching above their weight but I think they they've maximized opportunities very well from a commercial perspective in my opinion and I think the frustration for spurs fans is that that level of maximization has not found its way towards team building and on the pitch applications so there is that disjointed note where spurs from a commercial perspective are very strong they are pound for pound one of the leading clubs whereas from an on pitch perspective from a team building perspective from a player perspective and maybe coaches perspective they don't act like or portray themselves as one of those elite teams at times and that has led to a lot of frustration but you have to look at that financial you know drop in income 261 million

34:12that's a seismic hit I don't think it's an immediate death sentence there are contractual levels that that will will be pulled if spurs were to get relegated you look at you know relegation salary reduction clauses for example in contracts and it has been confirmed that some spurs players have those contract clauses you look at parachute payments obviously for some clubs it's a lot more meaningful than for others I've been warning people and trying to get ahead of it but without you know without going too much into the nitty gritty but just yeah just making people aware of the long-term commercial deals and the ramifications that could arise from a relegation from spurs the I think that there is obviously also going to be that

35:14blunt immediate shock that's going to take place look the club's asset base they've got that near 1 billion stadium and they've got a global brand that's not going to disappear overnight so you then have to look at what happens in practice first there's going to be issues with regards to cash flow you look at broadcasting rights of you know spurs being one of the elite teams in the Premier League that's obviously not going to be the case from a broadcasting perspective they won't have for example if they don't go and win it champions league football that again is you know the broadcasting revenues that get generated from that are massive they then won't have the Premier League behind them from a broadcasting perspective as well that would take a hit there's a potential for matchday revenue to fall as well chances are you can't be you know demanding high ticket prices if you're not in the Premier League as well

36:23but we know how these London clubs sometimes act you never know what the case may be but you would imagine that there's going to be a quite drastic fall from that perspective and you have to look at you know the thing I've been dancing around and trying to prepare people without getting too much into into details that I'm not a liberty to get into should I say it's probably the best way to put it commercial partners will seek renegotiation of deals so that's the first bit that cash flow element of it right then the second bit you have to look at it from a sporting perspective you look at the top players with ambition you look at the players that have released clauses they will likely be looking to depart that's going to obviously reduce the quality of the squad and it makes immediate promotion harder and I think there's a delicate balance to be made with regards to how you balance out the squad in terms of from a financial perspective and then from

37:30an unpitched perspective to make sure that you get back up as soon as you possibly can for a club the size of spurs it's imperative that they get back on the first try the third thing that you have to look at is from an operational perspective you look at a lot of the fixed costs many of which will remain stadium operations staff debt servicing so expenses won't fall in line with revenue we've already spoken about how revenue is going to go down some of these fixed costs are not going to go down and that recovery part then depends on governance and I guess that's where a lot of the concern comes from spurs fans is they've not been happy with the governance of the club for for a number of years now and if the board act decisively if they protect the core revenue streams if they retain a promotional capable spine in that team if they avoid panic sales I think spurs can treat relegation as sort of that shock to them to that

38:37can be managed but if the board start panicking if they're selling assets left right incessant her if there's mismanagement with regards to recruitment then obviously the club risks a multi-year decline and then that could be catastrophic and devastating beyond belief in my opinion so there's timing to all of this the first 12 months after relegation are decisive how the club manages for example contracts whether it keeps a competitive call how it communicates with sponsors and fans will determine whether relegation is a one season detour or it's the start of a longer fall we've seen some big names go down and take years to come back into the Premier League from a pragmatic takeaway perspective I think that relegation is survivable for a club would spurs as resources but that governance has to be competent there has to be

39:42patience and there has to be a strategy a defiant strategy of getting back up that is where the pause for concern is how much can we trust that spur spurs board to execute the plan to get back up as swiftly as competently as possible because when you look at the financial numbers it's quite stark the difference between one season and then bouncing back up and a prolonged decline it's going to be largely affected by what they would do over the next 12 months if they are to get relegated still an F right obviously I know a lot of people are trying to prepare themselves for the championship already but it's still an F I still have confidence as spurs will stay up my only cautionary what I've made some cautionary thoughts here but another cautionary thought

40:44in my opinion is that you can talk about all these you know levels that they're going to be able to pull from a commercial perspective to try and stave off some of the concerns that they would have from that side of things and but you have to also then look at what relegation would feel like for a club like Tottenham and their stature it's going to be humiliating more so in a season when Arsenal are more than likely going to go and win the league title it's effectively stripping away the identity of spurs they are a blueprint for a crisis you lose revenue yes but you also lose credibility and that's going to be interesting to see how spurs would navigate something like that if it were to if it were to happen if spurs were to go down the potential of you know

41:44multi-year project to restore trust you know and what it would take to then attract top talent again the board need to act in my opinion they need to act like this is a crisis not a minor inconvenience I think every decision in the next nine games is it needs to be treated like life and death because that's how I see the situation that's the reality this is not a sporting setback I think it's existential I think that reputational damage of going down even if they do come straight back up it will be difficult to attract the level of player on your you know let's say they go down they come back the next year who are the type of players that they're going to be signing we already know spurs have issues with regards of of of you know how much wages they pay and and competing for

42:49those elite players when you've got the likes of a Chelsea and a Man City that play that pay unique wages then put it that way you've got the likes of a Liverpool and Man United that have that historical prestige you've got an arsenal that potentially are defending champions and then also then if they are able to defend their title the the following season but you're already probably at the bottom of that list especially if you're coming you know back to the Premier League and then you'll have other established clubs like Anastin Villa for example maybe a new castle who players might look at them and say actually I would rather go to those teams they seem to have things going in the right direction compared to you guys that have just come back up I don't know are we going to be in the relegation battle again this would be you know it's two seasons in a row now spurs have been in in and around those positions that they don't want to be anywhere near around so that level of trust is eroding at a rapid pace and they need to fix it even if they

43:56do stay up this season I think they need to do something really drastic in order to make sure they know when near that relegation so if anything I would even argue they shouldn't be in the bottom half of the Premier League if they do stay up this season next season they shouldn't be anywhere near the bottom half of the Premier League they need to do something so drastic to repair some of the trust issues that have developed with fans but also with players across the board and that's going to be a task in itself and again we go back to the governance of the board and whether or not they're going to be able to do this but I'll leave that question for you to answer let's take another break we'll come back with our final topic it's with regards to Man United specifically Michael Carrick and Jason Wilcox and whether or not that pairing could be Man United solution but before we go to those ad breaks I do want to give a quick shout out to epilindex.com

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47:08dream team new habitants who told you has a secret reptile population you can watch the record breaking phenomenon at home is a topia two now available and Disney plus rated PG right now you can get Disney plus and hulu for just 499 a month for three months with a special limit to time offer ends March 24 after three months plan auto renews at 1299 a month terms apply all right we are back we've been discussing the FA Cup we spoken about Tottenham Hotspur and the financial consequences of potentially getting relegated let's move on to Manchester United the I keep I've I've been calling them the sleeping giants because you look at their global status speaking of global status we spoke about global status would Tottenham earlier in the podcast man United are probably the biggest global brand from an English football perspective I know they compete with Liverpool I know Liverpool have more trophies than man United

48:12but in terms of just pure brand exposure I think it's fair to say man United have a bigger brand exposure than Liverpool but the way man United continue to struggle that has been eroding and Liverpool have been catching up and certainly from a revenue perspective Liverpool have overtaken man United something that many didn't think you know certainly when FSG were taking over Liverpool on the brink of administration for example so the longer man United continue to not be involved in title races continue to not be involved in winning champions leagues I think that that continues to be a problem for them but at this present point in time I still think they do have that legacy that that carries them from from a brand perspective now we've seen the form that they've had they've been the form team in the Premier League since

49:14Michael Caracas come in but I don't think it's just about Michael Caric we have to look beyond the manager especially in this day and age the days of a Sir Alex Ferguson the days of an arson venga are long gone where one man specifically the manager of the team and I used the word manager instead of head coach because a lot of these guys are head coaches now first team coaches now the manager did a lot more than what they're doing now now a lot of it is compartmentalised managers or head coaches focus on on pitched stuff and then you've got you know directors of football sporting directors etc that handle you know stuff from the likes of recruitment to all of the other stuff involved there so you can't just look at this from a Michael Caric perspective we'll certainly look at both of their situations in Michael Caric and Jason Wilcox obviously Jason

50:20Wilcox is is a person that has to be important when when you bring up the the conversation of Manchester United he is of course you know a former professional footballer by his own right but he's also the director of football at Man United at this present point in time now from a Michael Caric perspective I think there there are two specific things that you have to look at from a cultural perspective and how he handles that dressing room and then from a football architecture perspective as well and then when you couple him with Jason Wilcox I think you also then have to add in that recruitment pipeline now from a cultural perspective Michael Caric I think he brings that immediate credibility inside the dressing room being a former man United player being a manager that has done well at at at at previous jobs yes it would have been in you know in the championship

51:25for example but I do think there is a degree of respectability that he does bring and I think it's evident in the performances that we've seen from Man United in in recent weeks he obviously understands Man United's DNA he commands respect from senior players in my opinion if he didn't command that respect Man United would not be performing the way they have been performing recently I think he's brought sort of a more stabilized environment and that sort of glue that cultural glue if I couldn't if I can put it that way for a lack of better term I think it's invaluable especially after this period of uncertainty that they had with Ruben Armer and where it felt like he never settled into that position he never settled into you know that chair of being the man that that was leading or at least was the face of

52:29of the club and trying to drive them forward I think Caric's presence reduces that short term volatility I think it gives the club a bit of breathing room certainly with how fast he started then you look at I mentioned as well football architecture from a long-term success perspective I think that requires a very stabilized structure you've got a manager that has authority or at least there's the appearance of authority from the outside looking in you also then need a sporting director who can set recruitment strategy and then obviously you need a technical team that aligns the coaches, analysts, youth development all together and the person that has to orchestrate all of this is Jason Wilcox and you look at his CV he's had time at Man City's Academy he was Man City Academy director and then you look at his work at Southampton it shows a track record in my opinion of identifying and integrating young talent into first teams

53:35and you look at some of the players that he's brought into Man City and to Southampton obviously you look at the likes of Romeo Lavier you look at the likes of Oscar Bob and his philosophy was that of spoiling the first team manager with Academy options and that's arguably what you know so Jim Radcliffe and his team appear to want for Man United a director who can build a pipeline of talent that can reduce trying some of market volatility and I'd say aligns recruitment with a coherent playing identity I still think that's one of the issues for Man United they've not had a consistent identity for a number of years now and they've been even if you look at the managers that they're hiring and hired that they've hired and the different

54:36philosophies that each and every one of them have brought that's also been an issue at Tottenham Hotspur but unfortunately we don't have the time to get into that today but there needs to be a consistent thread in there and hopefully for them certainly when you've got the director of football that needs to be a constant you can't be chopping and changing directors of football if anything you hire your director of football first then they hire your manager that's usually the ideal situation the third leg of this is recruitment pipeline we've kind of touched on this a little bit but you know United probably United's problem in recent years has been in consistency with that recruitment pipeline I think there's been a lack of coherent pathway from the Academy to the first team yes some players have come through but I've always said man United are one of the worst developers of talent in the Premier League certainly in recent history you look at some of the players that come through and hit the ground running like a like a macaida I don't

55:43know if people remember macaida for example he helped man United was the back end of of a season they were going for a Premier League title and even it extends as far as like a rashford for example or an Anthony Marciel where man United have these supremely talented players I mean Marciel was bapé before bapé but players stagnated man United I don't they don't go beyond their talent I don't see them developing beyond what you know that raw talent that we see from them so and as I say it's certainly in in recent history you look at then that those struggles they have in developing talent and then yet insist on bringing in you know young strikers and you're like that's probably not going to work out for you guys but anyway you know from a man United

56:43perspective then you're looking at a wall cox you're looking at the strength of his scouting you looking at the youth development and the youth development structures he's been a part of in his career you look at that ability to spot that undervalued talent you look at the players that that he has brought in the co-palmers etc that pairing of his eye and and his you know recruitment ability you pair that with the short term stability that a carrot has brought in I still think you need to surround carrot with really good support staff to be able to for this plan to work out really well I'm talking about you know from coaches perspective assistant coaches training coaches physios fitness guys all of that good stuff I think that man United believe that they can provide that right structure I think that under this red flip red cliff era there has been that

57:46emphasis on trying to become more more data informed or at least data driven trying to develop a sustainable pipeline and based on the track record of a wall cox for you know I think it it demonstrates an ability to identify talent early and integrate it into a coherent pathway united and they're hoping that that works out I do think that the the reality though is that work ox record at city and Southampton as impressive as it might be yes he found talent he helped develop it develop it but at united the problem is not just talent identification it's the ability to integrate that talent into a winning team and a relentless pressure as I mentioned the young players that flame out and man United that might start off hot and aren't able to you know go beyond just their talent the club needs a director who can do two things simultaneously fine

58:47talent and execute high stakes transfers that immediately improve the squad and that's going to be the balancing act for wall cox is he going to be given enough time time is a luxury at united and it's it's it's a luxury that they might not have at this present point in time trying to get back to you know title contention as quickly as possible they seem to be allergic to doing a full rebuild they keep trying to do patchwork and until they're able to be honest with themselves and have a proper you know review of where they are as a football club and try and rebuild this thing properly knowing that it might take you know two three maybe four years to to get it right instead of trying to patchwork it and every season they they're thinking they that's the season they're going to be in a title rest I think that might be a recipe for disaster for them but

59:49as a Liverpool fan long may continue that they struggle but as I said they are sleeping giant if they do decide to wake up and get things right the rest of the league probably need to be worried because they do have that brand status around the world from a global perspective that I think is unmatched if they are able to tap into it but obviously we've as I've mentioned other clubs have been gaining on them some of overtaken them and it might take man United a while to get back to where they think they should be but first and foremost they need to do it correctly yeah I'm happy with those topics are there were things that we were looking at that we wanted to discuss obviously relevant with the FA Cup coming in relevant with the form of man United they're getting to that stage where it's going to be a decision of whether or not a carrot is their long term future obviously Wilcox is there I don't expect him to be going anywhere anytime soon and then from a Tottenham

1:00:56perspective the reality of potential relegation and what that could mean for them I thought was important to just touch on that a little bit as well as much as I can that's going to do it for another episode of a tad predictable I do employ you to wrap up your EP or fix at EP or index.com for everything from match previews and post match breakdowns to play ratings and the latest transfer buzz tuning in daily to the two footer podcast with Dave Hendrick where he dissects the hottest topics in football then on Sunday evenings catch the fun also with Nina and Ben as they recap the weekends action follow the show on the twitter and blue sky and follow the show on twitter and blue sky at a tad predictable and keep up with EP or index for real time updates both on twitter and blue sky subscribe to the EP or index podcast channel wherever you get your podcasts give us five stars write a positive comment that stuff really does help us out and we appreciate each and every one of you that has done it so far I've been to the ottena kira you can

1:01:56find me on my twitter handle at tad predicts which is also my bliska handle a huge thanks to obi semenia he's at john empire essay and jody she's at spursy one four one for our podcast intro I produce a behind the glass mr. gadron called he's at the end of the day and remember she's in a potter dancing she has to just go believe her Chris words with the opening the slow machine pays out the jackpot Liverpool back on their birds with a record equally sweet English league two teams one cup the prime time stage is set for the TGL presented by so five finals Los angeles golf club versus tiger's Jupiter links keep up it's playoffs tune in monday march 23rd 9 p.m. eastern on espn 2 and twosday march 24th 7 p.m. eastern on espn and on the espn app it's tax season and at life lock we know you're tired of numbers but here's a big one

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