Lion distribution in the Maasai Mara

This study reveals a significant "density inversion" where lion densities in community-managed conservancies (e.g., 24.20 lions/100km² in Olare Motorogi) exceed those in the state-managed National Reserve (~16.5 lions/100km²). While ecological factors like prey biomass and riverine cover remain critical, anthropogenic disturbances are reshaping lion distribution. Specifically, the expansion of permanent tourism camps has caused a displacement effect, forcing lions to abandon prime riverine habitats to avoid human infrastructure and unregulated vehicle traffic.Additionally, the research highlights a "landscape of fear" outside protected areas, where conflict hotspots near pastoral settlements lead to high mortality among young males and skewed sex ratios. Genetic analysis indicates a "North-South" split, warning that fencing and habitat fragmentation threaten population connectivity. To ensure long-term viability, the report recommends science-based spatial planning, strict regulation of tourism facilities, and conflict mitigation strategies such as predator-proof bomas.

本研究揭示了一种显著的“密度倒置”现象：在社区管理的保护地中（例如 Olare Motorogi 的狮子密度为 24.20 只/100 平方公里），狮子密度反而高于国家级自然保护区（约 16.5 只/100 平方公里）。尽管猎物生物量和河岸植被覆盖等生态因素仍然至关重要，但人为干扰正在重塑狮子的空间分布格局。具体而言，永久性旅游营地的扩张产生了“位移效应”，迫使狮子为避开人类基础设施和缺乏规范管理的车辆活动而放弃优质的河岸栖息地。

此外，研究还指出，在保护区之外形成了一种“恐惧景观”，靠近牧民定居点的人兽冲突热点区域导致年轻雄狮死亡率升高，并造成性别比例失衡。遗传分析显示存在“南北分化”趋势，警示围栏建设与栖息地破碎化正威胁种群之间的连通性。为确保种群的长期存续能力，报告建议实施基于科学的空间规划、严格规范旅游设施布局，并推广如防掠食者围栏（捕食者防护牲畜圈）等人兽冲突缓解措施。