Jekyll & Hyde: New England Patriots Ready to Test Sam Darnold

0:00It's time to start breaking down this Super Bowl match-up. Let's start with this idea. Sam Darnold could absolutely turn into a pumpkin on Sunday. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Lockdown Patriots. Your Daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Your team, every day. What's happening? I am Nick Cattles, your host, born and raised in New England. I've been covering the past 16 years. Also co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattles, and a sports radio veteran. Welcome to Lockdown Patriots. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now, the number one sports podcast network. Your team, every day. On today's show, in the third segment, the challenges of facing the Seattle defense on third-down and how the Pats can try to make it easier on themselves. In the second segment, I have significant concerns about the Pats' run game

1:01against this Seahawks defense. But first, Sam Darnold, AKA Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde. Today's episode is brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account. Use code Lockdown for $20 off your first purchase. Now, before we get into Sam Darnold in this game on Sunday, one very special. No, Terrell Williams, defensive coordinator for the Patriots. Of course, he has not been calling the defensive plays since after week one against the Raiders. Zach Kor has been doing that, but we got great news over the weekend regarding Terrell Williams as Andrew Callahan of the Boston Herald reports that Terrell Williams is cancer-free. Had a very aggressive form of prostate cancer, but he is cancer-free. He will be with the team out in California this week. It's great, great news. Now, let's get to something much less serious and important, frankly, and that is Sam Darnold.

2:03You know, I have been talking about Sam Darnold for the last few years and I've had my doubts. I had my doubts going into the NFC championship game. How many times have we seen Sam Darnold turn the football over in a big game look like an absolute mess? Then Sam Darnold goes into the NFC championship game and he plays terrific. There's no other way to look at it. Sam Darnold against the Rams in the NFC championship game, 511, 102 yards in a career high, three touchdowns under pressure. Bill Barnwell of ESPN noted that Darnold's 82.9 QBR was the second best this post season. Also from Bill Barnwell, Darnold threw for a season high 248 yards and two touchdowns without play action. Seattle has leaned on play action an awful lot this year in their past game. Shield Kapadia from the ringer. He noted that Sam Darnold's game was 91st percentile based on EPA per past play. So Darnold was really, really good against the Rams

3:07in the NFC championship game. But I am not completely sold that that is the same Sam Darnold that we're going to see against the Patriots on Sunday. Sam Darnold's been defined by ups and downs throughout his entire career. That's what he's been known for. You even go back to Minnesota last year, terrific, terrific for most of that regular season towards the tail end of the year. He started to fall off a cliff. He wasn't the same guy in the playoffs. In this season, Darnold has been two different guys throughout this regular season that we just saw. And yes, he's been better in the playoffs, especially against the Rams, but he's been up and down. And I've got some numbers for you ESPN, okay? Weeks one through nine of this season. Darnold's QBR was 77.9. That was the second best in the entire NFL. Darnold was the second best quarterback in football. The first nine weeks of the season, according to QBR. And then all of a sudden from weeks 10 to 18,

4:08Darnold became one of the worst quarterbacks in football. According to QBR, he went from 77.9. Second best weeks one through nine to 37.4 weeks 10 through 18, which ranked him 26th. And that statistic. And you look at his numbers. He was a completely different guy. Weeks one through nine. Darnold completed 70.4% of his passes. Weeks 10 through 18. That dropped to 65.5%. Yords per attempt went from 9.6. The first nine weeks to 7.5 from weeks 10 through 18. Touchdowns. Darnold through 16 touchdowns. Weeks one through nine. He threw only nine weeks 10 through 18. Interceptions. Five interceptions. Weeks one through nine. Weeks 10 through 18. He had nine interceptions. Sacks. He had nine sacks. Weeks one through nine. Weeks 10 through 18. Double that number to 18.

5:10He was a completely different quarterback. The second half of the season. Then he was the first half of the season. The NFL figured out what Darnold was doing. And what the Seahawks wanted to do offensively with their quarterback. And he wasn't the same guy. And yes, he was really good against pressure against the Rams. But that has not been his calling card. Darnold has struggled when he's been pressured. We've seen that he's had major issues versus pressure. Very good in the NFC championship game. Otherwise shaky. The first two games this season against the Rams. Darnold no touchdowns three picks under pressure. When you look at Darnold against pressure this season. One of the worst quarterbacks in football. He was 21st in pass or rating. He was 27th in EPA. He was 28th in EPA per dropback. And he was tied for the third most interceptions in football against pressure with six picks.

6:12Six of his 14 interceptions were against pressure almost half. That's the Darnold we've seen. A very good Donald through the first half. A mediocre to bad Donald in the second half. A really good Donald in the NFC championship game. Could we see a mediocre bad Donald in the Super Bowl? I absolutely believe that it is possible that Donald turns into a pumpkin against the patriots. And if the patriots find a way to heat him up. If they put pressure on Donald, Donald will give you the football. Turnovers have been a major problem for him throughout his career. And they've been a problem for him this season. Only Minnesota committed more than Seattle's 28 turnovers during the regular season. That's according to ESPN. Darnold through the third most interceptions in football this year with the aforementioned 14. He had the second most fumbles lost in the NFL with six.

7:16Those 20 turnovers, the 14 picks and the six fumbles. Those 20 turnovers led all players in the NFL. Now he's been better the last three ESPN notes that Donald has not had a turnover. His last three games. That's good news for Seattle. It's good news for Donald. But it begs the question is he do watching Drake made through the first two postseason games with the six fumbles and how many were lost three four I lost count. You wondered, well, was he due to take care of the football against the Broncos? And he did 0.0 turnovers against the Broncos in Blizzard like conditions in the second half. So now you look at a, a Donald who had 20 turnovers this year has not turned the ball over once over his last three games. Does that mean he's due? Is he due to choke it up a little bit? Is he due to turn the ball over a couple times on Sunday? It's not a guarantee, but would you be surprised? I would not be surprised.

8:16And the turnovers from Donald look even worse when you check out the context. Sam Donald is not asked to throw the football a ton, okay? So he has less on his plate than other quarterbacks as far as volume goes. He's like around 15th and pass attempts on the season. So he's pretty much right smack dab in the middle of the pack as far as how many times he's going to throw the football. But yet, even though he's not throwing the football at a ridiculously high rate, he has 14 picks and six fumbles on the season, which means his turnover rate is much higher than those other quarterbacks that are asked to throw the football more. So inevitably, the question is, and it's, I think the most important question for Seattle, which Sam Donald shows up in the Super Bowl? Is it weeks one through nine and NFC championship game, Sam Donald? Or is it weeks 10 through 18 in some prior big game, bad Sam Donald performances that we've seen before? Because if it's the latter, the Seahawks could be in trouble.

9:18The Patriots could win this football game. If they put heat on, Donald, he turns it over a couple times and he just does not look like that guy. He looked like against the Rams and the NFC championship game. And the nature of his career, the up and down nature makes you feel like it's at least a possibility, if not probability, that Donald goes back to being that pumpkin in a big game. Remondre Stevenson and the Pat's run game should expect to have a very difficult day at the office this Sunday. We'll talk about that next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown podcast network, your team every day. The big game is almost here and there's no better way to cash in during America's biggest sporting event than prize picks where it always feels good to be right. And this week, prize picks has a special max discount for the big game live in the app right now. Drake May just needs one passing yard for the max discount to win. Add another player to your lineup. And if you're picks it, you can cash in. prize picks is super simple to use.

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12:24to learn even more. Also, don't forget, as I always say, if you're on YouTube, don't forget to help a brother out. Don't forget to help a podcast out. Click that thumbs up. Give us that like always appreciate it helps us with that algorithm. Don't forget to like. Don't forget to throw a comment in your thoughts on Sam Donald Jekyll and hide and don't forget to subscribe. We're trying to hit 9,000 subscribers by the super bowl. Can we get it done? It's going to be a tall task, but let's start pushing. Don't forget to like comment and sub appreciate every single one of you. Ramon Dre Stevenson has arguably been the best offensive player on the patriots over the last five to six weeks, including Drake May. Because of May's post season, you could look at Stevenson and say Ramon Dre Stevenson has been the best offensive player on this team. He's been one of the most consistent offensive players on this team and Ben Solack of ESPN has a couple of numbers. No running back has a higher rate of 20 plus yard gains per touch than Ramon Dre Stevenson. And

13:26since his injury return, he's averaging five point three yards per carry, even though he's only expected to have three point three yards per carry. Ramon Dre Stevenson since coming back from that toe injury is giving you two yards per carry more than he should be. And his missed tackle rate is a pretty crazy 24.5%. He's forcing missed tackles. He's got the contact balance. He's got the vision. He's got the strong finish. Stevenson has been terrific. And the run game, of course, is so critical to the patriots operation and success. You want to take heat off Drake May. You don't want Drake May who's dealing with his own issues right now that the shoulder, the rocky performances the last couple of weeks. You don't want May walking into this game feeling like he's going to be the one man band that he's going to be the one man show and you know, he has to throw for 450 yards and carry this offense to a Super Bowl champ. You don't want that.

14:30You don't want that. I've said it from the very beginning. It might be boring. It might be cliche, but you don't want one dimensional offense. You need that run game to take the heat off your quarterback. You need that run game so you can have third and manageable and third down particularly in this game is going to be critical. We'll talk about that next segment. But you need third and manageable if you're Josh McDaniels. Let's not forget that. Stevenson also adds explosives to this offense. And so does Travian Henderson. If Henderson is going to get on the field, we talked about that late last week here on Lockdown Patriots. But Stevenson's ability to create some of those explosives with his legs exponentially helps this offense. And if you want to play time of possession like we've seen the Patriots play every once in a while, we certainly saw it in the second half against the Broncos and the AFC championship game. You'll be you'll have to run the football. If you can't run the football, you're not going to be able to do those things, right? You're going to be one dimensional. You're probably going to be looking at third and

15:33medium. If not third and long for most of the game, the explosives out offense are going to be more difficult to come by against this secondary of the Seahawks. And you're not going to win time of possession. And the run game for the Patriots on Sunday could be a significant issue because Seattle is straight up great against the run. They're front seven. They're defensive backs. Pretty much everybody tackles well. And you look at the Seahawks run defense. They are third and run stop win rate. They are third in yards per game. Third yards after contact per attempt. They are first in yards per carry. They are first in EPA per rush. They are first in rushing yards over expected. They are eighth in stuff rate. And all of those stats are impressive, right? Every single one of those stats or analytics that I just gave you were impressive. What makes it even more impressive is that the Seahawks are second to last in stacked box rate, which means they're doing all of this against the run. First in yards per carry

16:38EPA per rush, rushing yards over expected. Third in run stop win rate. They're doing all of this without stacking the box. They are not putting extra defenders in the box to stop the run. They're just stopping the run as simple as that. That's what they're doing. And so it's it's pretty amazing what they've been able to accomplish here. Even though they're stacking it 31st in stacked box rate 13.2%. Even more on Seattle's run defense. ESPN says they've gone 27 straight games without allowing a 100 yard rusher. Even though they've played run CMC twice and Kyron Williams twice and Pajana Robinson this year and Jonathan Taylor, they're not giving up 100 yard rushing games. They're just not doing it. Their run defense has a 34% success rate, which is the lowest. It is the lowest rate in the NFL. A negative 0.15 EPA per play against the

17:38run, which is the lowest in the NFL. I mean, this Seattle run defense is terrific. And the question is, you know, at the top of my mind, can Josh McDaniels get anything from the running backs? Can he get anything from this run game on Sunday? And you could just look at what they do up front and how good they are up front. You can look at the second level, third level. Seattle also, you know, if you look at it, say, well, we're not going to be able to run the football often. Seattle is also very good. Seattle's very good. When you talk about ways to try to, you know, extensions of the run game, so to speak, the quick passing game, get rid of it quick, gain four, five, six quick yards. Seattle's very good against quick pass game. They are very good against perimeter touches. Their defensive backs are excellent tackling. Their linebackers are really good tackling. Their defensive line will stuff the run. So when you say, oh, we can't run the ball. What can we do? Can we throw some perimeter screens? Can we, you know, can we try to extend the run game somehow some way by, by, you know,

18:43throwing screens and stuff? Seattle's tough, man. They don't give up those extra yards. They are very, very difficult to deal with, incredibly difficult to deal with. And if you can't run the ball and you're one dimensional, that's putting everything on Drake May. And that is a lot to ask of Drake May, a lot to ask. So can they get the run game going? The numbers would tell you, they will have a very difficult time doing so, but can Josh McDaniels find a way? All right, the paths would be very smart to take a page out of Sean McVase book this Sunday. We'll tell you how they can do that next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown podcast network, your team every day. New year, new systems. This is the time when a lot of us look at the messier parts of how we run our business and think there has to be a better way. And there is streamlining. Your communications is one of the quickest upgrades you can make. That's why today's episode is brought to by Quo spelled Q U O the smarter way to run your business communications.

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20:45You pull up the game time app picking up coming NBA game and you'll have tickets locked in within minutes. You'll love seeing the all in price upfront. No surprise fees at checkout and being up to see the view from your seat before buying that seat makes the decision easy. Everything feels quick, intuitive and stress free from start to finish. Take the guesswork out of buying NBA tickets with game time. Download the game time app, create an account and use code Lockdown for 20 dollars off your first purchase. That code again is L O C K E D O N for 20 dollars off. Download the game time app today and remember it's game time dot co not dot com. Don't forget to like, don't forget to comment, don't forget to subscribe, appreciate every single one of you. All right, let's look at this objectively. You got two quarterbacks coming up on Sunday that are surrounded by questions. We talked about it in the first segment. Sam Donald's

21:45up and down nature. Meanwhile, Drake May has not been the same guy that he was in the regular season. He wasn't the same guy against Houston and Denver that he was even against the charger. So you've got some questions, especially with Drake May and the shoulder. I don't think it's a significant issue, but you've got questions. What can help both of these quarterbacks out on Sunday? What would make their life easier? What would make their life easier is early down success. The operation staying ahead, right? Staying ahead of the chains, making sure that your sustaining drives because your early down success is being productive. So I want to look at third down. This matchup is interesting on third down coming up on Sunday. Let's start with the Patriots against the Seattle's defense. Now this is a strength versus strength matchup. The Patriots third down offense has been really good. The Seattle third down defense has been the best in football. Patriots six on third down this year converting 42.9% of the time.

22:50Again, Seattle is number one defensively on third down. They only allow teams to convert 32.1% of the time less than a third of those third downs. You're getting a first down against this Seahawks defense. Now when we look at it on a more granular level, third and long. This is very interesting. The Patriots actually had the third best offense in football on third and long. They convert 33.3% of the time. Thanks to a lot of Drake May scrambles and a lot of Drake May great throws on third and long this year. How many times have we seen the quarterback save this offense on third down? Way too many to count. So the Patriots on third and long, they've been very good in that scenario. Seattle's defense, they go from first overall on third down to 11th overall on third and long. So if there is a particular situation that causes some issues on third down for this Seahawks defense, it's actually third and long. And that begs the question

23:55of whether or not the Patriots can be effective enough on first and second down, which is why we just discussed the run game last segment. Because if you're not running the football effectively, you're going to have trouble on first and second down, which is going to lead you into some very difficult third down situation. So it is a tough, tough challenge for the past offense. Now let's flip it. Let's look at the Patriots defense on third down against the Seahawks offense on third down. Now the Patriots, they have been, you know, one of the better defenses on third down throughout this season. They started off very hot. They have kind of, you know, tapered off and they're not as effective as they are, you know, or as they were earlier in the season. So Seattle's offense, here's the good news. They haven't been very good on third down. They've been okay. So who's going to win that battle? When you look at it, you know, the Seahawks on third down offensively this year, they convert less than 40% of the time, 16th in the league. So smack dab in the middle

24:58of the pack. The Patriots defense started off hot. But now they are 12th overall on third down. Now they are a much better defense on third down when Milton Williams and Robert Spalane are healthy and playing. So let's not forget about that. The Seahawks, here's what's fascinating. The Seahawks third in long offense is the second worst in football. When the Seahawks are in third in long, they have a terrible time of converting those downs. Now everybody has a tough time converting third in long. But again, relatively speaking, the Patriots have been very good on third in long. The Seahawks have been the second worst team on third in long. And the Patriots defense, by the way, is the best in football when offense is our face with a third in long. So the Patriots, if they can force, if they can force Seattle into third in long situations with Sam Donald, that's the recipe. Slow them down on the early downs, force them in a third in long when they

26:01are awful. And your defense is excellent. And maybe you can even cause some turnovers from Sam Donald. You know, if you're forced, Donald into third in long, third in medium, you're heating him up a little bit. That's when he can run into some mistakes. Now the Patriots as far as their offense, do they have answers on third down against Seattle's defense? They could do a couple of things. They could do a couple of things that might get them a first down or two, Ramadre Stevenson in the passing game. The Seahawks play a lot of two deep zone. They play two deep zone, according to ESPN on 33.1% of opponent dropback. So a third of the time when the quarterback is dropping back, the Seahawks will have those two deep safeties. What Seattle wants to do is force you to kill them, death by paper cut. They want 13, 14, 15 play drives. And that means you might have some opportunities to find Ramadre Stevenson in the passing game on third down to extend those drives to move those chains. So keep an eye out for that.

27:06Another possible answer on third down for the Patriots is Drake May's legs and his ability to scramble Taylor Kiles of CLNS. He posted that the Seahawks have given up some big plays versus scrambles. They've actually tied for the fifth most explosive runs allowed versus scrambles this season. And when you look at what Drake May has done running the football in the playoffs, his rushing grade is the second highest according to pro football focus. He has the fifth most rushing yards. He is tied for the sixth most missed tackles forced at five. And when we talk about conversions, Drake May has the second most rushing conversions in the post season, according to pro football focus with 11. And he's also tied for the second most 10 plus yard runs. So a couple of answers there, maybe Ramadre Stevenson on third down as a receiver, maybe Drake May being able to run with the football. And one more thing, Mike Sando did a great job of pointing this out in the athletic. The Patriots can treat first and second down like it's third down.

28:09That's what Sean McVay did the third time the Rams face the Seahawks. Now how did he do that? Well, according to Mike Sando McVay treated second down more like third down with personnel instead of 12 personnel or he actually went with 12 personnel more than he went with 13 personnel, the three tight endsets we had been talked about earlier in the year. McVay also shifted towards more, you know, three receivers on one side, one receiver on the other side instead of going the two by two, two on each side on second down. So Sean McVay treated first and second down like it was third down. And when you look at the numbers, Matthew Stafford was zero for six on third down against the Seahawks and the NFC championship game. But on second down, he was 10 for 13, 165 passing yards and a touchdown. So can you get Ramon Dre Stevenson? Maybe a sneak tray beyond Henderson out there on third down for a catcher to can Drake May convert with his legs like we've seen him do over and over and

29:09over again, especially against Denver. And can you treat some of these first and second downs like their third downs like Sean McVay did. Those are some ways that the Patriots might be able to win on third down while also defensively trying to get Seattle into as many third and long as humanly possible. All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being it every day. Reach out to me on Twitter at nixie radio and don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. And if you're looking for a gift for someone, make it easy. Check out the every day or club, add free episodes of this show exclusive discord server access and more. Don't forget until the Super Bowl subscribers can use code Super Bowl to get one month free of the every day or club subscriptions can be gifted through lock down Patriots dot supercast dot com have a great day and we will see you tomorrow.