Israel has lost Americans

The president isn't the most reliable narrator when it comes to his war in Iran.

You just suggested that Iran somehow got its hands on a Tomahawk and bombed its own elementary

school on the first day of the war, but you're the only person in your government saying

this, even your defense.

But as it drags on and the Iatola gets replaced by his even more extreme Iatola son, you

got to wonder why we're there.

If you ask some of the people closest to President Trump, the answer seems to be Israel.

Here's Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action.

We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces.

Senator Lindsey Graham told the Wall Street Journal that he coached Israeli Prime Minister

Benjamin Netanyahu on how to lobby Trump to join a war against Iran.

He admitted that.

Israel is driving American foreign policy at the exact moment that Americans on the left

and on the right increasingly disapprove of Israel.

Israel has lost Americans on today's plane.

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You're listening to today explained.

Ross Barkin is a calmist at New York magazine and he's on the show today to tell us about

our increasingly complicated feelings about Israel.

Well, since October 7th and the war in Gaza, you've seen real declining support for Israel

among younger voters.

It's been quite dramatic.

We went from Democrats favoring the Israelis by 26 points to the Palestinians by 46 points

that is a shift, John.

This is the first time since Gallup started keeping records on the question in 2001 that

support for Israel has dipped below the 50 percent mark.

And it's gotten to the point where it's begun to span party lines, but particularly on

the left in the Democratic Party.

If you're talking about voters under the age of 40, sympathy for the Palestinian cause

and antipathy or skepticism, Israel is much higher.

This Iran war, I argue at least, is only going to drive the left younger Democrats especially

away from Israel.

I think you're going to start to see even older Democrats grow more skeptical because this

is a war as the Trump administration has said very bluntly.

It's being driven by Israel by Netanyahu's desires to strike Iran.

We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action.

We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if

we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer

higher casualties and perhaps even higher those killed.

And now we're engaged in it in a very deadly destructive war that's killed American troops.

The Pentagon says more than 140 U.S. service members have been wounded over the past 10 days

during Operation Epic Fury in the Middle East.

Eight severely on top of the seven U.S. troops killed since the war began.

It's killed many, many civilians in the Middle East.

The red crescents is over 1,300 Iranians have been killed in one week of war.

The war has so far killed nearly 500 people in Lebanon and 11 in Israel.

And it's created a lot of chaos for the Gulf States and most directly for Americans

is raising the price of gasoline.

Billing up has become a lot more expensive, 43 cents a gallon more.

Gas prices have spiked the highest that they've been since 2023.

I'm paying 40 bucks, but that doesn't get me a full tank anymore.

So you take all that together and I believe that support for Israel in the long term, certainly

in the Democratic Party is going to continue to slide.

And you're starting to see some examples of that now with how the 2028 candidates

are talking about Israel in particular.

Well, I want to talk about how this war is influencing the left's views of Israel as

well as the rights, but let's go in that order.

So what have you seen in terms of fractures on the left over this war when it comes to

views on Israel?

Well, if you're talking about the Democratic Party broadly, at the top of the party,

you still have older Democrats who are very supportive of Israel, but don't like that Trump

did not see congressional authorization for the war.

So that's the argument of Chuck Schumer, the minority leader.

Trump doesn't care about being honest and direct with the American people.

He doesn't care about the soldiers.

He's putting in harm's way.

Hakim Jeffries, the minority leader of the House, probably the next speaker.

Donald Trump, without justification and without coming to Congress,

has gotten America into a Middle Eastern war that we know will not end well.

And then you have a lot of younger Democrats, progressive certainly, who are extremely critical

have wanted to do things for a while now, like conditioned and military aid to Israel.

I think that the idea of completely unconditional aid, no matter what one does,

does not make sense.

I think it enabled a genocide in Gaza.

People should know, people might need to hit the streets again, to make sure that the government

knows that we don't want our taxpayer money going towards that.

I'm an anti-Israel, I'm pro people.

And also are really trying to rethink how the American foreign policy

oriented itself around Israel, where for a long time, Democrats would say,

whatever Israel wants to do, they should get to do that they're the democracy in the Middle East,

they're the Jewish state.

You're starting to see a real shift.

And even among the mainstream sort of center left candidates,

you are witnessing a change in tone and language.

I look at someone like Gavin Newsom, who has been very supportive of Israel throughout his

career. He recently called the Israeli government in a part-tied state.

And this sort of language would have been unfathomable even three years ago.

It'd be called like anti-Semitic, right?

It'd be called anti-Semitic, and your career would be in jeopardy.

It would be the kind of thing you'd have to apologize for.

It would be viewed as a very fringe argument to make.

And as recently as 2024, you had the pro-Palestine Uncommitted Movement,

which was trying to build a protest against the Biden administration's approach to Israel and

Gaza. And no one from that movement was allowed to even speak at the DNC.

All they were asking that summer, and I was there, was to be able to address the convention for

a few minutes. Today, I watched my party say our tent can fit anti-choice Republicans,

but it can't fit an elected official like me.

I do not understand why being a Palestinian has become disqualifying in this country.

And that was viewed as such a risk by Harris, by the faded Biden, that it could not be.

They were locked out. And the 2028 convention I imagine is going to look different.

And you've already jumped ahead to like 2028 projections. How can it? It's my act.

We talked about Gavin Newsom. I get the feeling he might be running.

But let's talk about this moment right here. A moment in which Democrats don't hold a lot of

power in the federal government. Are we seeing manifestations of this

break with traditional democratic views on Israel manifest itself in any way

from the Democrats in the government? So federally, the war powers resolution vote that just took

place in the House, which was trying to stop a Trump from bombing Iran, got the support of almost

all Democrats. There were a few more conservative pro-Israel Democrats that broke with the party,

but not many. It was the vast majority support that war powers resolution. So I would say you

start there on level voting. And I think you see how senators are starting to speak about Israel.

I mean, you have like Chris Van Holland, for example, who is a very mainstream politician

senator from Maryland. Kids in Gaza are now dying from the deliberate with holding of food.

That is a war crime. And that makes those who orchestrate it war criminals.

You have younger politicians, you know, Senator John Ossoff has also been very critical.

These are really government, these Jewish concern for the innocent, especially when fighting an

enemy unbound by any morality demonstrates the values for which the U.S. should stand and which

Israel proclaims. The same values meant to be the bedrock of our alliance. This was just something

you would not have seen even five to six years ago. Right. And I guess as you're sort of suggesting

here, they can't really do a ton about it yet. But the earliest sign of how this might be influencing

where this party is going might be the midterms. And another thing you think about when you think

about the midterms is campaign fundraising. Of course, APAC has been a major donor to Democrats

and also Republicans, but we can get to that later. Does a John Ossoff coming out and speaking

out against Israel change the likelihood of his ability to fundraise now? Well, it's remarkable

in the backlash to APAC and the amount of politicians who say they won't take APAC donations

who are willing to criticize the organization. You start there. People were saying, I don't think

I would tax pay a dollar. She'd go to starve children in Gaza. And APAC said really, okay, we're

going to spend hundreds of thousand millions of dollars to defeat you. Well, I've never taken

money from APAC and I'm not taking money from APAC in this campaign. You're seeing what's

happening in Gaza makes me sick to my stomach. Tom Malowski, who is the former congressman,

is running for his old seat in New Jersey. He lost the primary in part because APAC decided to

spend millions of dollars against him. And he offered what were in the context of even today,

mild criticism of the Israeli government. So there's anger towards APAC will affect fundraising.

You know, I think not so much in this online era. I mean, one thing about the internet is

it's much easier to fundraise, but the Israel skeptical position is growing or even those

willing to offer small criticisms of the government. And the APAC approach to all that has been

you bring a hammer and you keep hitting and you keep hitting and you scare the politicians and

you bludgeon them. And over time, you get compliance. And there's a lot of mainstream Democrats

who are tired of that. And they're telling APAC, why don't you just go deal with the Republicans?

We don't want to beat your conferences anymore. We don't watch your money.

The Republicans, when we return on today, explained.

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Not.com slash sell. Today's point is back. I'm still Sean Robbins for him and I'm still

with Ross Barkin from New York Magazine Ross. You were kind of teeing up that APAC could just have

to court the Republicans a little harder now that Democrats are breaking with the group. What is

broadly going on on the right where you know the right isn't charged but also the right isn't

uniform on Israel anymore yeah. So at the top of the Republican Party you have the Israel Hawks.

The strongly pro-Israel side controls the party so you have Marco Rubio. I'm confident in saying

that President Trump's administration will continue to be perhaps the most pro-Israel

administration American history. Senators like Lindsey Graham. To all the anti-Semonites to all the

isolations I don't believe. Forget it. I'm not with you. I'm with Israel. I'll be with Israel

to our dying day. Tom Cotton. Why does Israel have a responsibility to provide aid to Gaza?

Israel is the victim of an unprovoked vicious attack on October 7th. We didn't provide aid

to Germany and Japan during over two. It's had crews. Growing up in Sunday school I was taught

from the Bible. Those who bless Israel will be blessed and those who curse Israel will be cursed.

You could tick off many senators who are very hawkish on Israel or have even gelical ties and

even gelical base of the Republican Party. It's been a driver of its pro-Israel politics for decades

along with the money that flows into the party. So that traditional pro-Israel side is still

and what is interesting is the shift at the bottom. Just as young

progressives and younger voters broadly in the Democratic Party have grown Israel skeptical.

You're seeing a burgeoning grassroots Israel skeptical mega-way. Being a conservative or being

a Trump supporter or being part of MAGA does not mean you have to accept another middle east

war but just seems so insane based on what he ran on. This is why a lot of people feel betrayed,

right? But there's also just a real dissatisfaction with Israel among 20-something young conservatives

who are not especially religious. They signed up for America first. They voted for Donald Trump

in 2024 because he said you're not going to have a war with me and you're not going to have a

third world war with me. That I can tell you. He said we are not the policeman of the world.

He attacked the Bush administration. He attacked new conservatives. He made a mockery of men

like Marco Rubio. He told them that Republican Party's dead and we're going to build an ultra-nationalist

closed border isolationist country. I will end the illegal immigration crisis by closing our

border and finishing the wall, most of which I've already built. From this day forward,

it's going to be only America first. America first. And so if you voted for that,

you are wondering why are we in this war? And Nick Fuentes is speaking to some of these

well, if Trump is an air and boy for Israel, then you got to shut down his government. And that

means you got to go into the midterms and you got to get the Democrats in. And the Democrats

hopefully will impede the administration. Nick Fuentes is an anti-Semite and he's also anti-Trump.

He said I don't vote for Trump and he kind of exists in his own wing. But I think what's

important to keep in mind is something like Fuentes or some like Carlson or some like Owens,

not all their followers are anti-Semitic. I mean, they have a lot of people listening to them.

And a lot of them are just looking for conservative voices who will criticize what's happening,

who will look at the war in Iran and say this doesn't make a lot of sense.

This is an effort to expand the territory and the influence of Israel in the Middle East.

Of course, getting on its act in Israel is just a fact.

Who's the bigger terrorist is the question today? I would say as an American that if we're going

to get behind a regime change, it should be in Israel first.

And I do think this is going to be a longer term shift. I do think in one to two decades

from now, even the Republican Party might alter how it views Israel. And so I do think in the coming

years you're going to see perhaps a movement back more to the Reagan Bush approach.

But in the meanwhile, as you point out, this is not America first.

Is that tearing the base apart, the mega base, or are they willing to like in so many other cases

that preceded this one, follow their leader wherever he may want to go?

You know, I guess the way I would put it is I would distinguish between the hardcore Republican

who will support Trump no matter what. They're excited about this war.

And then you have maybe someone who voted for Trump in 2024, maybe they voted in 2020 for Trump as

well. They considered themselves right, meaning, or conservative, but they're not showing up at

a Trump rally. They're not wearing the merch. They just, they don't like the Democrats that much.

I do think there's a lot of more marginal Republican voters who are going to sour on this war.

If it drags on, that's a key to, I mean, the remarkable thing about this Iran war is that it's not

popular already broadly speaking, if it is in their Republican party, and that that's a shift

from from what usually happens with wars where initially they do enjoy a kind of uniform support

or it is a rally around the flag effect. We've skipped that entirely. We're almost to the point

where we're at the war weary part of the conflict. And so if this war is going on months from now,

if gas prices have not gone down, I do think there's going to be more and more Republicans and

and perhaps even people who are strongly supportive of MAGA who do turn on Trump.

Republicans in Congress had the chance to rein in the president last week. They opted not to do so.

We asked Ross if that's just the nature of Republican politics at this moment.

It's the nature of following him. It's also Iran as a villain. I mean, for like the real pro-Israel

Republican, they are like the number one villain. The fact that Trump could say, I killed the

Iatola, even though nothing has changed in the country. And his son took over, right? His son

took over. Repression remains and anyone who studies Iran even a little bit could tell you that's

what would happen. It's an extremely complicated society with a very entrenched theocratic regime.

So I do think for Republicans, it's hard to buck Trump right away because killing the Iatola

is a big deal. It feels a bit like for them when Obama got bin Laden, which I think Americans

broadly supported. So I understand in a way where they are, but I do think war getting nervous.

Just between what's happened in the past few weeks and Israel's war in Gaza, it does feel like

we've seen a dramatic evolution in Israel's place as a sort of third rail in American politics.

With Gavin Newsom calling the country sort of in apartheid state.

With people saying America owns Israel, these are things that were, as we discussed, like they

would get you in trouble. You would be called anti-Semitic, but it doesn't feel like

Israel is doing a ton to beat the allegations anymore.

No, they're not. That's the issue. You have a war that Israel plainly wanted and either worked

in tandem with the United States to begin or initiated and pulled the United States along,

almost as a junior partner. One cannot say that the United States foreign policy is not linked

to the Israeli government. And the shift politically has been extremely dramatic.

If you were in the 2010s and used the term apartheid or even the early 20s,

you would face censure and probably not have a political future. And you look at how some

like Hillary Clinton spoke about Israel as our unsenting ally. The Clinton era Democrat

could not acknowledge the occupation of the West Bank, for example.

So certainly, if you're an Israel hawker supporter of the Israeli government, you are now

culturally on the defensive and politically. I mean, you have power in the White House,

but beyond that, politicians are not nearly as afraid of violating certain taboos or what

were taboos and are now no longer taboos. And what does that mean for our relationship

with Israel, for our position in the Middle East? Because it's a weird position to be in right now

with the United States going to war with Israel against Iran. It feels like this relationship's

the most locked in. It's ever been. And yet, here we are having a conversation about all of the

fissures. It's the most locked in as long as Trump is president and certainly Netanyahu runs Israel.

Yeah, but leaders change. And will it be so locked in in 2029, in 2030 and 2031?

And in the United States, you're going to have if it's a Democrat in the office, I do think this will

be the least pro-Israel Democrat you've seen in the modern era, whoever is president. And if it's

a Republican, after what's happened in Iran, after what's happened in Gaza, after the chaos

the last few years, even the next Republican could at least, if they're going to be very supportive,

not give Israel every single thing it wants.

Ross Barkin at nymag.com, you can find his latest including. Trump has handed the Democrats a

new winning issue for the midterms, the day Israel lost America, and the Democratic parties break

up with APAC is almost complete. At today's sprained, you can find Hadi Mahwagdi, who produced Miranda

Kennedy, who edited Andrea Lopez Cruzado, who fact checked, and Patrick Boyd, who was on the mix.

Tomorrow, we'll take you to Hollywood.

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