Iran War Update Day 3 -- 3/2 | Yaron Brook Show

0:00Well, some fools, men of the J.O. So here from the WWE. When it's just me between matches, it's day one itch. That means it's chumba time with hundreds of casino style games and new titles arriving weekly. There's always something fresh to try at chumba casino. The daily booze make it even more fun. And have me about to get them all during my downtime. Ready for a fun way to chill out and enjoy a few minutes for yourself? Let's chumba. No purchase necessary. VGW Group Void were prohibited by law, CTs and Cs. 21 Plus, sponsored by Chumba Casino. Oh, hey, everybody. Welcome to your own book show. On this Monday, March 2nd, I know it's early in the morning

1:04for those of you in the United States. And probably won't get a large American viewership right now, given the hour. It is, but it is 8 a.m. on the East Coast. But I thought I'd give you an update because later today, I am at Exeter University doing a debate. And it's going to be difficult to do. I won't be able to do anything tonight. I'll be on train rides for about 5 hours today. So I thought I'd do one now and give you an update of what's new overnight. And then we'll see what kind of update I can give you tomorrow, depending on timing and everything. If those of you who are on can just give me a thumbs up in terms of sound and video. Because as you know, we've had our challenges here. So it'll be great to just get confirmation that everything is going well this morning.

2:07Firestorm 731 says he's watching it midnight. Where is it midnight right now? I don't even know where it's midnight. I'm staying in the UK, yes, but I'm all over. So tonight, I'm at Exeter. Tomorrow, I will be in Durham and on Wednesday, I will be at Oxford. So I'll be traveling. I have done this overlay of the chat on the video. So let me know what you think. Do you see the overlay? Is it legible? It's hard for me to see. If it's a roll land, it's in Thailand, and it's 8 p.m. in Thailand. Let me know what you think about this chat overlay. If it's something worth continuing to do or not. It's a feature of this new way I'm streaming that avoids some of the problems that we had. Ulyran, I've cut OBS out. And I'm just using mainstream to stream everything.

3:09So let me know if you like this feature or not. A soft, Intel Aviv likes it. He said, wow, and beautiful. More opinions would be good. Not that I don't value a soft, but all right. Let's see, what do we want to talk about? Yeah, a few things. Oh, we've got Stephen, who is at 5 a.m. in Los Angeles and is watching. Hi, mom. I'm one of Yiran Brook video. Who's mom? Where's mom? Where is she? The white lettering could use a darker wall to contrast it by. Yeah. When we get back to my regular studio, I think the wall behind me is darker. So that should work. It's not a Twitch stream. This is still the same stream. So anyway, this might be a cool new feature that we have.

4:13If I can figure out how to add a tracker for the super chat, I can do that. Of course, yeah, I mean, if I copy into there the update on the super chat, you should be able to see it. There it is. So I wonder if you'll see it in terms of the super chat. Anyway, put aside the technical aspects of the show. Let's talk about what's happened overnight in the Middle East. So a number of developments that I talked about yesterday that have come to reality that is the reunions have now attacked the Saudi oil installations. Saudi Arabia shut down. It's largest refiner. And that is a major hit both to the Saudis

5:13and also to, again, world oil markets. Now, of course, the oil is stuck because the streets of Humors as of now are still blocked. And as far as I can tell, ships are not traveling through the streets, I am surprised that the United States was not better prepared for this and didn't have a plan for how to deal with this. This was kind of the obvious last resort that Iran has. It has no other. Iran can't do anything other than damage the oil infrastructure of neighboring countries in the Middle East and disrupt the flow of oil and natural gas through the streets of Humors. That's its strategy. That's all it can do. It can harass Israel. It can harass residential areas and airports all over the Middle East. It can disrupt their economies. It can shut down the airports. But that's trivial. Its real leverage is by attacking oil installations and by closing the streets of Humors.

6:15And it is doing exactly that. It exactly that. Exactly what we predicted, exactly what I would have expected. They're doing it. And the question now is, does the United States have an answer? Did the United States prepare for this scenario? Does it have a means by which to open up the streets of Humors? Other than negotiation. So that is one. Israel and the United States continued overnight to bomb targets all over Iran, primarily in Tehran, regime installations, missile launches, ballistic missile depots, but also a lot of kind of, as we said, regime forces that are used to suppress the Iranian people, those were a big part of the targeting. Israel also announced that in that first day, it had indeed killed many of the senior people within Iranian intelligence.

7:17It attacked the headquarters of the Iranian intelligence and destroyed it. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard headquarters is destroyed. Many, many other facilities within Tehran that belong to the authorities and to the armed forces and to the Revolutionary Guard are destroyed. Somebody says, why wasn't Israel prepared for it? Israel has no influence, has no capabilities to keep the streets of Humors open. Israel is not going to send its navy all the way to the Persian Gulf. Israel can demolish the navy, the Iranian navy and the Iranian facilities there. But you'd have to do a lot more than that to keep the streets and what you need as a navy and what you need as the capacity to put your navy in the streets of Humors and prevent Iranian ships and Iranian missiles from coming anywhere near the tankers. Israel doesn't have those capabilities.

8:19It's not what it's structured for. It's structured for self-defense and it's structured for aerial attack on Iran. It's also not Israel's problem. It's the world's problem. It's the US problem. It's China's problem. My guess is that in the division of labor in this particular mission, the United States took on the responsibility of taking care of the streets of Humors. It has many ships in the area. It has aircraft carrier in the area. It has submarines. It has military capabilities that the Israel does not have, particularly in the water. Now, Israel has a very competent navy and submarines and I wouldn't be surprised if they are in the area, but it just doesn't have the scale or the scope that the American navy has. So this is clearly part of the US responsibility in this mission is that, of course, also these countries. The device, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, even Iraq, are all US allies.

9:20Less so is really allies. So we will see if the United States has a plan and if it's implementing that plan. Let's see. So Iran continued to launch ballistic missiles into Israel. The missile dropped in Bill Sheva and there were some casualties as a consequence of that drop. It's also continuing to attack rapidly. US bases and civilian areas in all of those countries that I mentioned, the Gulf countries, pissing off the Sunni Gulf nations. We'll see how that manifests itself, the fact that they have pissed them off. The United States announced earlier today that a fourth service member has passed away as died

10:21from his injuries from the same attack that the other three died from. My guess is that that is in the naval base in Bahrain. That took seemingly took the most significant hits. But I don't know that for a fact in the United States has not said whether that is where these casualties happened. The United States also announced the three. Three F-15s were shot down over Kuwaiti skies yesterday. Pilots all survived. Three F-15s were shot down. Now, it turns out they were not shot down by the Iranians. It turns out they were shot down by friendly fire by the Americans, by patriot batteries. So American patriot missiles are the only thing they'll shoot down in F-15. The Russians can't. The Chinese can't. It looks like at least the defense systems

11:21that they have in the Middle East and in Venezuela. But patriot missiles can't. More about the superiority of Western arms. Luckily, the two pilots in F-15, so six crew members all survived. But yeah, three planes went down. Just to give you a sense of. Hey, it's Bubba Wallace from 2311 Racing. You know what it feels like forever? Sitting on a plane waiting for takeoff. Good thing I've got Jamba Casino with daily boost in social casino games on tap. This is a kind of fun that makes time fly. Why not turbocharge a downtime? Play now at JambaCasino.com. Let's Jamba. Sponsored by Jamba Casino, no purchase necessary. VGW GroupFord. We're prohibited by law. 21 plus terms and conditions apply. You know, proportion here. Three planes in two days of battle. Israel has lost exactly one advanced airplane.

12:25We're talking about F-15, F-16, F-35s. Exactly one airplane to either it's a combat or ground air defense systems. One, since 1973, so post Yom Kippur War, where they took a lot of hits, including their 82 war, in Lebanon, including all the different missions Israel's engaged in. They lost one in 2018 above Syria. And F-16 was hit. Pilots survived. But F-16 was hit. Lots of planes were being lost to accidents. Lots of planes were being lost in training. But in terms of hostile, in spite of all the stuff that Israeli Air Force has been doing for the last, what is it, 53 years? In 53 years, just to give you the competence of the Israeli Air Force and the incompetence of defense

13:29systems in Arab states. In 53 years, Israel has lost one airplane in 2018. That is an astounding number. I don't think I think on a plane by plane, pilot by pilot basis, there's no question the Israeli Air Force is the best in the world. By probably a fairly big margin, and partially, it's just the fact that they're participating in combat. They have experience. They have combat experience with most other armies, including the United States. They have no combat experience. So that's a pretty stunning number. And it's pretty stunning that the United States lost three airplanes yesterday. Even if it was a fairly fire, you think they'd be better coordinated. And you think the F-15 could avoid being shot down. The photographs of these F-15s dropping from the sky, pretty scary stuff. I'm really happy that the pilots got out,

14:29and they got out safely. Also last night, Gisbala decided to join in. Big mistake for Gisbala, I think. Gisbala launched drones and missiles into Israel yesterday. No real damage. What's pretty amazing is, for the first time, at least for the first time it's documented. There's some reason to believe this weapon system was used in the past. But this is the first time that it was documented and explicit and admitted and reported on. Israel used its new laser defense system. Pretty amazing. The laser knocked out both drones and missiles out of the sky. These are short range missiles, and drones coming in from Lebanon. These are not ballistic missiles, but these are lower flying. It's a pretty amazing system, because one of the biggest problems with air defense systems against missiles and drones is the cost involved in shooting down a drone.

15:31A drone can cost maybe $30,000, an expensive drone. The projectile to shoot it down is $200,000. And maybe even much more than that. Iron Dome is a very expensive system in Israel. The laser cost almost nothing. It's some electricity. It shoots a beam, and it causes the drone itself to heat up and explode, same with the missiles. So you can see video online of the missile system at work. And it destroyed all of Gisbala's incoming missiles and drones. Same time, given that Israel was now involved, Israel immediately launched operations against Gisbala in Lebanon. They are bombing many, many, many sites in southern Lebanon. Of course, southern Lebanon is the area immediately adjacent to Israel.

16:31It's where the highest risk is for Israeli casualties that they attack out of southern Lebanon. Israel is attacking brutally in the area, and you're seeing mass exodus of Lebanese out of the south moving north. But Israel also attacked Beirut. They bombed a number of places in a number of underground bunkers and a number of buildings in the area in Beirut where Gisbala is active. I think they are bombing Beirut as we speak. It's hard to tell. We don't know yet about the consequences of their bombing. I mean, I've seen reports that the entire leadership of Gisbala has been wiped out. They're all dead. They're all finished. And that, I guess, is possible. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case. But also fog of war and all of that. And I saw this at Twitter. So who knows if that is true? Even Israeli media is not. I haven't seen confirmation with Israeli media of that.

17:32I'll keep watching and letting you know if we have any update in terms of who they hit among Gisbala. We do know that the head of Gisbala intelligence, senior, very senior person in Gisbala, was killed in the attack yesterday. Who else has been targeted? Who else has been killed in Gisbala? We don't know, but everybody. Oh no, it wasn't a senior intelligence officer. It was the number one person in Gisbala, parliamentary, he was a member of parliament. So he's the number one political face of Gisbala. And this sends a message to Gisbala. Everybody's a target. Your politicians, your military personnel, and your spiritual leaders. Through all targets, we're going to go after all of them. And it looks like Israel is indeed going after all of them. And at the same time, the Lebanese government came out with a statement this morning saying Gisbala,

18:34attacking Israel is illegal for Gisbala to do. Any armed activities from Lebanon are illegal without the authorization of the Lebanese government. There are some people within the Lebanese government who want the Lebanese government to declare Gisbala to its organization. They haven't quite gone there. But there is a chance, oh, what is going on here? Give me a minute, let's see, that is there. Let's take this out. OK, I think that fixed the problem. Anyway, there's a chance that the Lebanese government will deploy the Lebanese military to actually confront Gisbala for the first time.

19:35So that is impossible. In the meantime, Israel is not waiting. And it seems to be taking care of business in Lebanon. Let's see, it is also a report that says the B2s were used again, B2 bombers conducted strikes against the Iranian regime overnight after non-stop life in the United States, second bombing mission. Again, 2,000-pound bombs, big bombs. And my guess is that they were targeting nuclear facilities and storage facilities for the ballistic missiles. So it'll be interesting to see what else we have here. Let me just see, I guess it's B1s. I don't know what the difference is between a B1, B, Lanza, and a B2.

20:36I guess the B1 is not stealth, but I'm just not sure. So maybe somebody who is more of a military expert knows more about this than I do. All US bases, all over the world, I guess, are now a heightened alert for both terrorist attacks and other potential attacks from Iranians. And let's see, the Saudi Ministry of Defense announced that a five-way attack, sorry, the five one-way attack drones were intercepted and destroyed this morning approaching the Prince Sultan Air Force Base. Oh, here's something important, I think, in addition to attacking the off-facilities inside. The Iranians have been attacking other facilities of oil production and LNG. And as a consequence, Qatar Energy, which is the largest,

21:40the largest manufacturer of LNG, liquefied national gas in the world, the largest producer of LNG in the world, has ceased operation. So they are shutting down operation. They are sitting this out and waiting to see what evolved. So this is about 20% of the world's LNG. This is, again, going to affect Asia, primarily. This will affect, but potentially Europe as well. This will definitely affect China, Japan, maybe India, but certainly China and Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia. Other countries are around there, but in some in Europe, 20% of the world production is a lot. Again, the United States, my guess is, is going to ramp up production. We have a lot of LNG, but we have limited capacity to transport it. But my guess is, the United States will ramp up production as this is happening, as this is happening.

22:41Oh, yeah, let's see what else is going on. Um... Telloretic here from 2311 Racing. Game Night's Fun, until someone spends five minutes lining up one shot. Chalk, breathe, re-chalk, still aiming. While they figure it out, I fire up Chamba Casino. I can spin anywhere, anytime, and there's always a new social casino game every week. Spins happen way faster than that shot. Play now at chambacasino.com. Let's Chamba, sponsored by Chamba Casino. No purchase necessary. VGW Group Board, where prohibited by law, 21-plus terms and conditions apply. All right. As we mentioned, as a consequence of all this, not surprising, all prices opened this morning, significantly up about 8%, which is not as bad as some people expected. So, uh, crude is at 7233. I mean, people are fearing that it heads towards 100, so it's up 8%. Gold, of course, is up. It's at back to 40, 5,400.

23:45Our silver is at $95. All of those are up, but crude went up 8%. You know, at the same time. Stock futures, their S&P futures are down just under a percent. Nasdaq futures are down 1.2%. Uh, so clearly, stock markets are going to open down. Uh, surprisingly, you'll find this, I think, entertaining and interesting. The Israeli stock market opened way up today. So, Israeli stocks are doing really well today with the anticipation that this will be a successful operation, that the geopolitical consequence of this are going to be very favorable towards Israel, and towards the Israeli economy in the future. And so, uh, counter to the American stock market, the Israeli stock market is way up this morning. In addition, the shekel, the Israeli currency, which was expected to take a dive today, uh, vis-à-vis the dollar, as instead strengthen significantly against the dollar.

24:49So, um, this, by every measure, the markets are telling us that this is really good for Israel, whether that is true or not. We will see markets are not always right, of course, but, uh, but that is, uh, that is an interesting sign, and encouraging sign, certainly, uh, for the Israelis. Uh, you know, I told you yesterday that, uh, the Iranians attacked Cyprus with drones, uh, with missiles. Uh, they, they did that again, and they actually hit, uh, the British, uh, base in Cyprus, the British have evacuated their bases. In response, the Greeks, a member of NATO, the Greeks have sent two frigates, uh, with the Greek Hellenic, uh, Navy, uh, as well as, uh, they are deploying a number of F-16s, two Cyprus, uh, in order to help to protect, uh, the island against, uh, Iranian, uh, Iranian attacks. So, uh, again, what Iran can do is,

25:50uh, not you prick you, uh, disturb you, create havoc. It can do, and, and of course, it could create real damage to oil, but it can't really do real damage to, to any of these countries, in any substantial or sustained way, uh, they're limited. And of course, the real achievement will be, if the Israelis and Americans can so deplete the, uh, the, uh, ballistic missile and drone capabilities of Iran, uh, that they start fiving. As it is, if you remember, the threat was on day one of the war, thousands of missiles would go into the air and, and destroy the Middle East. It, you know, so far, the largest barrages are being about 30 missiles at a time. Uh, now that it, it, it's still bad. And some of these missiles are getting through, as we can see in Israel, and certainly in, in Dubai and in, in Saudi Arabia and other places. But you haven't seen the thousands. And, uh, that is partially because Israel has, uh, and Americans have, have, have destroyed much of their launch capability, but also the, the, the supplies that they have.

26:52But they still have a lot of, there's no question. They still have a lot of missiles, they still have a lot of drones. It's not clear yet if Israel in the United States have destroyed drone making and missile making capabilities, because it's going to be important that they can't start producing drones and missiles to replace the ones they're using. Uh, you know, this, this will end much faster if Israel and the United States can stop the, uh, ballistic missiles from flying. Drones, I think, can be handled, but the ballistic missiles, once and all one gets through and one getting through is, it can be very devastating as we saw in BitChemish in, in Israel yesterday and we saw maybe in Bill Shever this morning. One getting through can be devastating. So getting rid of those, uh, is going to be, um, is going to be, you know, really, really, really, uh, important and, and, and significant. Uh, all right.

27:55So, uh, that's where I think the war is in terms of military action, uh, throughout, I mean, we'll get more news later today about casualties in Qizballah and casualties, of course, in, um, among the Iranian, uh, Iranian elite, uh, Iranian commanders, and it is, of course, crucial that, um, the, Israel and the United States keep killing, uh, the people, the people that, uh, Iran keeps nominating to lead their forces. Uh, I mean, here, here again is, uh, uh, uh, uh, you know, uh, breaking reports, indicate being the general Bahraman Bema Road, uh, recently appointed commander in chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps because the previous guy was killed, uh, was killed in a US-Israeli strike while inside an underground command center in, uh, in, uh, Sunnah doj alongside other senior military figures.

28:57If confirmed, this would represent a major disruption to Iran's military leadership chain, striking not only operational command, but succession planning within IRGC itself. Underground facilities are typically reserved for hardened command and control operations, meaning the strike may have penetrated one of the regime's most secure coordinated hubs. This could have been what the B1 bombers were doing, you know, they have the bigger bombs, uh, that, that can penetrate these kind of, uh, underground facilities. That could be what they were doing last night, uh, uh, uh, bombing this. So, uh, official confirmation is still pending, and the situation remains fluid, so again, hard, hard to tell, and a lot of these reports are coming out. It's, it's hard to tell. Um, uh, there's news out of Argentina. If he's a Vimele, he just delivered his state of the Union address. Augustina, uh, Augustina, uh, of the Anjury Institute, uh, tweeted the whole

29:57address to Congress, translated, life tweeted, uh, the address so you can, uh, you can find that if you follow Augustina, Vellgawa, Sid, Augustina Vellgawa, Sid on Twitter, uh, you can find the entire address, uh, I'm looking forward to reading it, I haven't had a chance yet, uh, to do so. European gas prices have surged 50 percent after the Katari LNG production, uh, as halted. Again, uh, Europe gets a significant amount of LNG from the Katal. My expectation is that the United States is going to ramp up production, but that could take a while, prices have gone up 50 percent. This is the damage you on can do. And this damage is being done in order to put pressure on Trump to end the war. That is, this pressure is being done so that Europe, uh, the Gulf states, the Arab states, China, Asian countries start putting pressure on the Americans to end this. Uh, now, you know, whether, whether it'll work, uh,

31:03whether the Americans, again, have a plan vis-a-vis all this, I don't know. I don't know. Uh, yeah, Spain continues to not allow the United States to use its if-or-spaces. Um, all right. Yep. Let us see. I mean, you can, you can see pictures of the states of Homoz closed the, the ships and, and you can see ships in a sense of the west, north, west of it. You can see ships to the south, uh, east of it, but in the states of Homoz, there's almost no activity, no activity. Um, um, yeah.

32:05Uh, let's see, there's the B1s. Okay, according to IDF, the Air Force, uh, if it's a struck more than 20 targets, belonging to the Iran's security leadership of 150 ballistic missiles and more than 200 defense systems, that's what Israel is struck. 20, uh, security leadership of 150 ballistic missiles, more than 200 defense systems. In total, the Air Force has attacked more than 600 regime terror targets using approximately 2,500 munitions. Uh, you know, a big question is going to be, how long can they keep this up? Uh, and, uh, you know, how many, how many more munitions, uh, can they yet? That is, is the production of munitions fast enough to keep up with what, uh, Israel is doing. Um, uh, supposedly the Justice Minister of Lebanon has ordered security forces to arrest the people

33:07within Hizballah responsible for the rocket attack last night towards Israel. This could be a major escalation to protect your civil war within, uh, within, uh, within Lebanon. All right, and, uh, and we will see, uh, we will say a combined forces continue to target Iranian internal security institutions responsible for maintaining stability and suppressing protests. The combined forces has also conducted cyber attacks as part of its stated objective to topple the regime. Um, Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing, another checkered flag for the books. Time to celebrate with Chamba. Chamba at chamba casino dot com. Let's chamba. No purchase necessary. BGW group. Boy, we're prohibited by law CC and C21 plus sponsored by chamba casino. There is the regime, uh, the Iranians of, uh, uh, uh, continuing the efforts to maintain its own security, internet monitoring, net blocks reported on March 1 that the regime has maintained its nationwide internet blackout, uh, with Iranian internet only operating at 1% connectivity.

34:11The regime likely imposed the internet shutdown to prevent coordination. So, uh, we will see what happens, uh, the US as sunk, uh, the Irish Shahad, uh, which is a drone carrier. This is like a if craft carrier, but a Iranian drone carrier. Iran's drone carrier has been hit by US and is currently sinking in the Persian Gulf. That's about an hour ago. That's huge because that, that is a wave which Iran can project its drone capability into the sea and, and attack the American fleet using those drones. These are the kind of ships that the United States should be destroying on a mass scale, on a massive scale. Um, uh, all right, Kata, uh, interesting love. Kata, uh, Iran's really ally, right? The last two, uh, for years now, Kata just threatened Iran and Kata's weapons on, uh,

35:12and, uh, yeah, Kata just threatened Iran. Kata declared a March 2nd that Iran may pay a price for its attacks and the strikes cannot go unanswered. The Kata news agency confirmed 16 injuries from Iranian ordnance, zero deaths and limited material damage. Critical threats reported 66 missiles, ballistic missiles launched the Kata territory. Doha's Hamad International Airport is shut down. Kata airlines airways suspend all operation. Kata has 12,000 military personnel and 36 Rafael, these are French fighter jets, according to global firepower. Iran has 610,000 active military and the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. In a kinetic exchange, Kata does not last a week. That's stupid because that would be just Kata versus Iran. Kata's not alone here. Um, so it's, it's going to be interesting to see if Kata engages those Rafael planes in helping, uh, you know, destroy ballistic missile depots inside,

36:12uh, inside, uh, Iran. Uh, Kata, this is from this article. Kata mediated between the United States and Iran for years. The Washington Post reported on February 4th at Oman, broker talks with Iran's agreement to meet the following week. Kata hosted parallel diplomatic channels. Iran has now attacked, uh, both Oman and Kata. Um, uh, Iran is destroying its own exit, exit ramps. Um, I mean, so, so I think that's where the Kata military operations stand. Uh, they continue. There's, there's nothing really new. It's about a thousand, uh, you know, a thousand sorties a day. Uh, and the question is, are there enough targets for them to go after? And will they be able to put the leadership and, and the infrastructure and, and the ballistic missiles? That, that is going to be, uh, you know, that is going to be the key, uh, to ending this thing

37:15is, is the ability to, um, it's, uh, pretty funny. It's a picture of, uh, the Babylon B has, as it's cover, Iran introduces a new Ayatula and, and, and, and, and guess who that new Ayatula is with a picture with a nice beard and a nice hat. Um, uh, the new Ayatula is Ayatula Taka Carlson. He looks good with the beard and the, and the hat. So, so maybe that is it. Um, again, more reports that the, uh, recently appointed commander chief, the IRGC has been killed. I mean, if, if, if, if, if Israel and the United States continue taking out the entire military leadership of, uh, the Islamic Revolutionary God, they will win, meaning at some point, somebody will break either in the Revolutionary God or in the Iranian military and, and, and switch sides

38:15and go after the Mullahs. Um, now, again, there, there are, there are, uh, reports that Israel has eliminated, um, eliminated 30 plus senior leaders in Khizbalah last night. Uh, and, um, in retaliation for the Khizbalah attacks exactly who those are and the details, I guess we'll get, uh, we'll get later on. Uh, let's see what else we have here. Uh, the head of the Khizbalah's intelligence headquarters was eliminated in a, say, striking big wood so we know that about an hour ago and, um, I don't know, there's, there's not pictures, yeah, of people eliminated. I mean, if you, if you look at pictures out of Tehran, there is, there's fire and smoke everywhere. Every direction you look, there's some explosion happening.

39:17This is relentless. This is really relentless. Um, I mean, they're, they're really trying to obliterate anything that belongs to Islamic regime in Tehran is, is being attacked and blown up and destroyed. Uh, it's, yeah, I mean, pictures from Tehran or something or something else. All right. Oh, it's a, here's the thing. Uh, all this is going on and I think it's going to plan. You know, again, we'll see what happens with the Strait Hope Wars. I think that is the big, big, big question at this point. Um, um, by the way, just as an aside, I just read this, more than 70 Israeli female pilots and support staff took part in strikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Um, you know, Islamic terrorists were wiped out by Israeli women.

40:21Uh, that's pretty cool. That's pretty cool for those who, uh, who worry about their, uh, domestic flight in the United States being piloted by a woman. Uh, they're women flying over right now over the skies of, uh, of Tehran shooting at targets in the Israeli efforts. Trust them, uh, to do that job. Um, let's see. It does look like that price spike in natural gas in Europe, um, has gone away. That is spiked when a 50% came crashing down, crashing down. Okay. So, so maybe, maybe, again, world markets adapt, new supply, uh, routes, uh, uh, engaged and, uh, things are not as bad. Gas prices, Europe is surged, uh, but then they've, they've come down quite a bit. So, uh, that is, uh, that is good, that is good news. Um, ta-ta-tam.

41:29Yeah, I mean, uh, almost everybody online, almost everybody online, even people who support this mission are extremely pessimistic about the ability of, uh, this attack to actually result in regime change in Iran. I mean, that is, uh, I see almost nobody who, uh, other than Iranians, who is actually positive about that possibility. Uh, you know, most of the people are predicting, uh, civil war and violence with Iran, uh, they could, uh, significantly destabilize the country. Not that, I think that's our problem necessarily, but, you know, I don't think anybody should care in, in terms of, in terms of, uh, at least American is really security. But, uh, nobody, nobody is imagining, nobody can't imagine, nobody is willing to imagine any kind of positive political outcome, uh, to this for the Iranians. Uh, this is based on the fact that there is no established, uh, opposition in Iran that, uh, the son of the show while making a lot of noise,

42:34it's not clear how popular he actually is, uh, in, uh, in Iran, right? Uh, so it's not, it's not clear whether he can actually be the bridging figure to a, uh, a, a, a, a democratic, uh, a democratic, uh, or, or liberal democracy in Iran. Uh, it's not clear. Uh, but, uh, but, um, the pessimism is widespread. And the voices against this mission are widespread. And again, this is the number one danger that this operation faces. It, it, it is domestic pressure on Trump, pressure from the right and from the left and from the center, uh, uh, uh, uh, I think less pressure now from the Gulf states who might want revenge for being attacked by the Iranians. Uh, but, but he is going to be under intense pressure, uh, uh, to stop this and to negotiate.

43:40Now, one of the things that's saving us from Trump, saving us from Trump, uh, are the Iranians who supposedly are refusing to negotiate, non-interesting compromise and are as, uh, as radical as, uh, as ever. Indeed, the new, for all intensive purposes, leader, the new leader of Iran, a guy named Ali Lalijani, Ali Lalijani is a, a real radical. Uh, he has, uh, no interest in compromising. Uh, he is, uh, he is the guy running things right now, uh, in, in Tehran supposedly, at least as far as we can tell. Uh, he was a member of the Revolutionary Guard in the 1980s and early 1990s. He is, uh, I guess, unsurprising. It shouldn't be surprising to you guys. He is a, um, his academic training is in philosophy. Uh, his thesis, the thesis he wrote, this is the,

44:43the now, the, the leader of Iran, just to, just see the, the historical connections. I think this is super funny. And, uh, an objectiveist couldn't have made this up any better. And, and here, reality is just handing it to us on a silver platter. You know, I always tell you don't, don't, don't blame contra everything that, you know, don't, don't jump to cont, there's, there's a lot of intermediary steps. And here you're allowed. Why? Because, um, according to Wikipedia, um, Ali, Ali, whatever his name is, um, you know, Ali Lalijani is, uh, is a study philosophy at the University of Tehran. And he wrote a thesis, right? He's a doctorate. He's got a doctorate in philosophy. This guy's a philosopher. And his thesis is on cons philosophy of mathematics. That's Immanuel Kant, you know, the bad guy. Uh, and it lists under influences who influenced

45:44this guy. It says Immanuel Kant. So we now have an explicit Kantian running Iran in the name of Islam. Um, it can't, it doesn't get any more perfect than that. It, it, it, it, it, it, it, it's, there's a beautiful thing now. Uh, if Israel and the United States can find a way to kill this guy, uh, they will, they will be doing the world a big, big, big favor. And, and I think, uh, ending this, whatever is going on right now would happen a lot faster, uh, if that actually, actually happens. Um, Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing. Victory Lane? Yeah. It's even better with chamba by my side. Race to chamba casino dot com. Let's chamba. No purchase necessary. VTW group voidware prohibited by law, CT and C's 21 plus sponsored by chamba casino. All right, this is, uh, it just recently, just a few minutes ago, the, uh, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff gave

46:48a made an announcement, uh, General Dan Cain. We're now roughly 57 hours into the operation. In the initial phase, sent comes focus has been systematic targeting of Iranian command and control infrastructure, naval forces, ballistic missile sites and intelligence in infrastructure, designed to degrade and confuse them. Coordinated space and cyber operations have effectively disrupted communication and sensor networks across the area of responsibility, leaving the adversary without the ability to see coordinate or respond effectively. The combined impact of these swift, precise and overwhelming strikes has resulted in an establishment of local air superiority that is complete dominance of the skies with no threat. Okay, so that, that was the beginning we haven't, uh, it just, it's just happening right now. All right, it looks like the United States might be sending more assets into the region.

47:51Um, all right, so again, the biggest threat is from, uh, everybody who's skeptical, everybody who is questioning, um, and putting pressure on Trump, uh, to stop this. And, and you have to hope that, uh, Trump will stick with this. Uh, now, what is the chances of a peaceful transition to something better in Iran? I think they're higher than people expect. Uh, I think there is a, a, a portion of the Iranian population is, that is, there's willing. I think that the religionists in Iran are going to be in stunned paralysis as this regime slowly collapses on itself as it suffers the kind of casualties that are being inflicted on it that it just, it just slowly disappears. Um, you know, uh, so, uh, as that happens,

48:52um, uh, I think that the, the, the religious people, uh, in, um, anyone, there's going to be, uh, going to be pacified and stunned and there's going to be an opening. There's going to be, uh, maybe a small opening, but there will be an opening for, you know, uh, uh, better people within Iran to rise up and, and to take control of what's going on. And again, my hope is, my big, big hope is that, um, that that will encourage elements within the Iranian military to support them and to help and to secure whatever revolution happens, uh, as a consequence. That, that is, that is what I hope. All right. Um, let's see, was there anything else I wanted to look at?

49:55All right. Hexeth is out there, uh, defending this war and claiming that the administration has an exit strategy and, uh, that this is not going to be endless. He says, as far as, as time fame, I would never hang it, uh, I would never hang a time frame from our perspective. The commander in chief sets a tempo in terms of this fight. That's a little scary. Uh, he says the best defense is a good offense. That's true. Uh, we destroy anything that moves. Good. Uh, and, and now the question is, will the commander in chief set the tempo in a way that actually, um, actually results in victory? Um, Hexeth said that the Iran is not a regime change war, but the regime should change. The regime that charted, chanted death to America and death to Israel, uh, was gifted death from America and death from Israel, mainly from Israel, the regime itself, that actual people,

50:58mainly from Israel. Um, all right. Anyway, that's from Hexeth's address just now. Um, yep. I think, I think the thing to watch, the thing to watch is, uh, are there enough voices in the United States supporting this, there will, there will, uh, there will encourage Trump not to walk away from it. That, that's going to be key. Uh, I am seeing satellite images coming out of, uh, the Bahrain, uh, naval support headquarters, which is, it's a headquarters of the US Navy's fifth fleet, uh, in, uh, in Bahrain. And, uh, yeah, I mean, these ballistic missiles that the Iranians send are big. And the explosive power is amazing. It is, it's devastating. And, uh, there's no question you've got a number of buildings here that have just been eviscerated. They're gone. Uh,

52:00so the, uh, I'm pretty confident that whatever casualties the United States, four people now, have suffered so far, it's from this, because this is pretty devastating. I mean, the, the, it's direct hits. It looks like into significant buildings, uh, in which the, uh, the Navy, again, the Navy's, uh, headquarters of the fifth fleet were at, uh, several buildings entirely destroyed. Uh, and this means that, um, a number of missiles and maybe drones, uh, hit this, uh, this, uh, this base. So that, that is probably the, the most successful attack the Iranians have engaged in since the beginning of this war or in the 12-day war. This is, this is most successful than anything the Iranians have done today. Uh, let's see, um, okay, this continuation of the, of General Dan Crane, American B-2 bombers. Uh, similar to Operation Midnight Hammer flew a

53:0337-hour round trip, so T from the continent of the United States dropping a precision penetrating munition and Iranian underground facilities across a southern flank and slightly deeper. I'm not sure what that means, uh, but that, that just confirms what we said earlier, uh, about, about the use of the B-2 bombers. Uh, let's see. Yeah, I mean, let's also hope very much that there are no more American casualties. Not only is any casualty a tragedy, but also the more tragedies you get, uh, the more pressure there will be on the United States, the end of this. Uh, it really does look like it is on the United States are hitting targets inside to Iran. Police stations. So police station number 137, police station number 104 have both been destroyed. Uh, the, uh, Islamic revolutionary court where they've

54:08sentenced these all the demonstrators to hang has been destroyed. Um, a, a, a special unit facility of the, uh, Islamic Revolutionary Guard, LEC, I think is, is the internal security. LEC headquarters have been destroyed. The Islamic Revolutionary broadcasting headquarters was destroyed. Islamic Revolutionary Guard, ground forces, operational base was destroyed. Uh, so, uh, side after side, deep, I mean, really inside the city of, of, so these are police stations inside the city are being, are being eviscerated. Uh, with the direct message, the Iranians, we're taking out the people who are have a past you and the potential to oppress you. At some point, it'll be your responsibility to go into the streets and, and, uh, get, get rid of them. Uh, again, from, uh, General Cain, more than a hundred aircraft launch from land and sea fighters tankers airborne, early warning and electronic attack aircraft bombers from the United States and unmanned platforms,

55:10forming a single synchronized wave. This was a daylight strike, uh, based on, uh, a trigger event conducted by the Israeli Defense Forces and enabled by US intelligence and Israeli intelligence. The first shooters, uh, at, uh, the first shooters at sea were Tomahawk unleashed by the United States Navy. They closed in on a wavy, uh, Iranian Navy forces and began conducting strikes against the southern flank anyway. I mean, that southern flank is the area that controls the streets of homo's. So it does look like definitely the United States is focused on the southern area to, to destroy as many of the forces that the Iranians have who can control that, uh, the streets of homo's. On the ground, uh, forces fired, precision, standoff weapons measured, deliberate, precise, and lethal. This is a massive, overwhelming attack across all domains of warfare, striking more than a thousand targets in the first 24 hours. So, uh, yeah, the United States is fully engaged,

56:12is fully in this and, uh, uh, causing real danger and real harm. Uh, all right. All right, let's take your questions. We've got, uh, we've got a bunch of, uh, I'm curious what you guys think about the scrolling, uh, a, uh, the scrolling, uh, chat on the screen, um, on the screen of the, of YouTube. So let me know what you think of that. I guess it's on, it's on the scrolling screen of, uh, of Facebook and, uh, and over at, uh, um, Twitter as well. All right. Let's, uh, let's look at your questions and, uh, we'll go from there. I, as I said, I do have to catch a train in a little while to go to Exeter to get, do a debate, debate an exit. I think it's on tariffs and economic policy and stuff like that.

57:15Uh, uh, all right. Uh, I'm in. Thank you. I'm in again. That's amazing. Another $200, really, really appreciated. It says, thank you. I want for the daily updates. My pleasure. I hope, I hope, uh, I hope, uh, I hope I get to do a daily update on the day when the regime falls. Uh, the day when the Iranian people storm, whatever's left of the regime and take it over to be replaced by whatever. But if anything, I think at this point is going to be better than, uh, than what the Islamic regime did and represented. So thank you, I mean, thank you for all the support. James, do people use religion to justify egoistic policies, politically, politically, the people in Israel who advocate for the most selfish, self-defense actions of very religious, evangelicals in the U.S. promote self-reliance and have contempt for the welfare state? Well, some of them have contempt for the welfare state. Many of them do not. Uh, uh, Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing. Victory Lane? Yeah, it's even better with

58:19Chamba by my side. Race to ChambaCasino.com. Let's Chamba. No purchase necessary, VTW Group, Voidware Prohibited by Law, CTNCs, 21 Plus, sponsored by ChambaCasino. Yes, I mean, uh, it's not exactly egoistic policies because, because ultimately, the religionists in Israel are promoting policies that, uh, prove they're collective. It is pure collectivism. Look, you know, Nazi Germany was very assertive regarding its, its, you know, security, uh, and, and, uh, the religionists in Israel are very assertive about their security. Uh, the religion gives them a moral backbone. It gives them a certain level of, I guess, subjective, uh, uh, certainty, a sense of where right and where just and where certain, and it gives them something to fight for, which is, uh, this collectivistic vision of, uh, Jews. I mean, they're plenty of secular Jews in Israel, uh, who are just as adamant about protecting

59:25Israel and just as adamant about taking out the Iranians in terms of foreign policy. So, to me, uh, the situation in Israel is a little different than other places. Israel, from its founding, has faced constant daily, I mean, daily existential threats. And, uh, that has remained real to the vast majority of the Israeli population and, therefore, the vast majority of the Israeli population is very aware of the need to defend themselves. They are choosing life over death in this realm. That's not because they're egoists, consistently, but they, they're selfish enough to value their life, uh, in an existential battle. And they have come to realize a majority, overwhelming majority of Israelis come to realize that the Palestinians and the Iranians represent an existential threat against Israel. Hamas, Hizballah, you want. And therefore, they support these missions. Now, it's true that those who are religious, some of those who are religious, uh, take this kind of to, to a level of,

1:00:29of irrational fanaticism, because the whole philosophy is based on irrational fanaticism, right? The very religious nature, the, uh, ultra-orthodox, don't care about the state of Israel. They just care about paying to God. So, they don't even serve in the military and they don't particularly support Israel one way or another. Even Jalikas in the US, you know, they promote some of them promote self-reliance. If a Jalikas is a big group and some of them doing some of them are mega and they, they actually support the welfare state and they don't want the infestuation of the welfare state, some of them are not. But, but there is a portion of the evangelicals who, uh, who tend to have a, a better attitude about self-reliance, uh, you know, but I don't think it's consistent across the evangelicals and I, and I, and I don't think that when push comes to shove, when it actually, when you actually talk about doing something about it, they are actually against

1:01:31the welfare state. Uh, if they had been, then we would have seen politicians act against the welfare state. Bush, who is an evangelical, Trump, who is, uh, sympathetic, who gets a lot of his support from the evangelicals, neither one of them has done anything, not an ounce to move against the welfare state. So I'm not convinced that that is indeed the case. So no, I don't think religion, you know, uh, can be used to justify egoistic policies, even when it's used to justify true policies, it discredits those policies. I think the fact that they're religious not supporting Israeli self-defense diminishes the, uh, not the truth of the, of the need for self-defense, but the diminishes the support for that self-defense, uh, because people don't trust anything that comes from, you know, a religious source, justifiably. Thanks James. Uh, Hopper Campbell also $50.

1:02:34What's the Reagan-Thatcher revolution, first political win, of a, the first political winner of objectivism? Uh, despite their significant flaws, their orientation towards individual responsibility and shrinking the state was able to override the collectivism of the universities. No. I mean, that's a way exaggeration of, of the impact of Thatcher and Reagan. Certainly Reagan, Reagan didn't shrink the state. There was no shrinkage of state. The state was much bigger, maybe double, when, when, uh, when, uh, Reagan left office, then when he came in, there was almost no, there was no shrinkage of the welfare state. Reagan saved social security instead of taking the opportunity to shrink it. Uh, government spending was about double when he left and when he started. So yes, there was some deregulation, there was some cutting of taxes, but that's about it. Um, it, it was, it was nice, it was good, but it was way short of revolutionary. And in that sense, no, it's not, it's not a political win for objectivism.

1:03:35And indeed, uh, I think Iron Man's criticism of Reagan is absolutely right. Reagan, the, the, the, the damage Reagan did by bringing in the religious right, the moral majority, into the Republican Party and making it an essential part of the Republican Party, probably way outweighs any good he did for the economy. And that is certainly not objectivist, the, the, the affiliation with and the, the, the coddling of, uh, the religious right. So no, I don't consider Reagan that at all. Now, the shift to the right in, in, in the UK and US and then across the world, or more correctly, not to the right, the shift towards free markets, the shift towards capitalism that happened in a, in, in a little bit during this period, was a consequence, I think, of Iron Man, but not just Iron Man, Milton Friedman and Hayek and, and Mises, I think they all had an impact in moving, uh, the world, uh, closer to, closer to,

1:04:38uh, closer to free markets. But because it wasn't a philosophical shift, because it was just mainly economics and sense of life, it didn't last. It lasted 20 years and it was gone, right? By the late 90s, by the early 2000s, it was gone. It was gone and, and, uh, but so it was an influence of objectivism. I wouldn't call it a political win. And, and I, I don't think objectivists can take credit for that win. And I don't think they want to take credit for the results, certainly not in the United States, maybe in the UK. Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing. The rush of racing, nothing beats it, but Chamba Casino comes close. Chamba's got fast spins, fun games, daily bonuses, and all the action you can handle. Now that's a ride. Ready to hit the throttle, get in the driver's seat and head to chambacasino.com.

1:05:39Let's chamba. Sponsored by Chamba Casino, no purchase necessary, VGW group void where prohibited by law, 21 plus terms and conditions apply. Rand, the network reporting on the war is generally, the network reporting on the war is generally abysmal. A bunch of experts telling us we can't win. Yes. Opinions, but no facts, pathetic. It's telling that the only place I can get actual news is by listening to you. Well, thank you. I appreciate that. But yes, I mean, I've said this, I've noticed this since I moved to the US, I moved to the US in 87. So the first war I experienced was the first Gulf War. And I remember watching TV and all these experts going on TV saying, oh God, the Iraqis have this powerful military. They've got all these advanced Russian weapons. This is going to be incredibly costly to Americans. A lot of Americans are going to die. You know, this is horrible. And I was like, they don't want to talk about the United States. We're going to viscerate these guys in two days. They don't have a chance in hell.

1:06:41The weapons systems are shit. The soldiers are motivated. You can compare to the American military. And that was indeed the case. And the war after war after war after war after war. I've noticed the same pattern. The experts are all ignorant. They overestimate the abilities of the bad guys, always. And they are generally just pessimistic about American capabilities or Israeli capabilities. I mean, think about all the warnings Israel got about going into Gaza. Oh, thousands of Israelis troops are going to die. You can't take, you can't take Rafa, you know, everything's booby trapped. Everybody's going to die. Everybody's going to get killed. None of that happened. I mean, Israel lost way too many troops, primarily, in trying to save the civilian population of Gaza, in trying not to commit anything it looks like, you know, so-called genocide. It didn't help them.

1:07:42They still accused of that. But that's where they lost their troops. The bad guys just can't fight. Patton knew this in World War II. He was convincing to defeat Hitler in, you know, much faster than anybody else. And he did he could. And when, when, you know, he kept advancing. And I said, how I saw him advancing. He couldn't believe it. He couldn't believe the maps. You know, when, when, you know, Patton crossed the line. He wasn't supposed to cross the line. They were supposed to live on Gumree, crossed the line first. But Patton crossed the line. And I said, how it was like, how did you do that? That was supposed to be impossible. It was supposed to have taken you weeks to cross the line. How did you do it in two days? And Patton said, I just did. You know, so throughout history, the experts have underestimated the abilities and the firepower of good generals, good equipment, good militaries, highly motivated militaries. And we're seeing that in the coverage of this war, as we saw it in the coverage of all the

1:08:43other ones. In addition to that, there was antagonism towards a war against Iran. This is what drove this is why no president until Trump engaged in this war. And the obvious question is, why is Trump doing it? And I think Trump is the only president for better and worse. Who doesn't care what people tell him? He just does what he feels like doing. It's not driven by the kind of moral compass. It's driven by whim. And, you know, the intelligence, I'll tell him, it can't be done. You shouldn't do it. It's even moral. It's wrong. Don't do it. And he goes screw you. And he just does it, right? And that's virtue, but also a vice, depending on the circumstances. But that's the reality. He also is not troubled by kind of conventional objections to these kind of things. And he thinks very highly of the American military, which most people do not. So, yes, it's war reporting generally is pathetic. And I guess the negativity maybe comes from the Vietnam

1:09:49war, where the expectation was that the United States would just walk all over the Vietnamese and destroy them and win that war easily. And the United States lost. You could argue about white last, but it lost. And I think that pessimism around the US capabilities to engage in warfare do right from that. And then with Iraq, even though Iraq military was a huge success, and Afghanistan military was a huge success, they lost the peace. They lost the post-war effort, you know, the United States, and of course the United States fought a war of self-sacrifice, it fought a war of placing the Iraqi civilians and Afghan civilians above the lives of their own soldiers. And in spite of that, they wanted very easily. So, you know, this is the consequence of those wars. For a long time, I said that the pathetic Iraq war and the way it was executed and the consequences of it and the way the US forces engaged, we turned America off of war for

1:10:54a long, long time, and we're seeing the consequence of that. Americans don't want war, not because it sometimes isn't adjusting to do, but because they believe they can win one, because they haven't won one in such a long time. Maybe this war, if Trump goes through with it, will represent a shift in the American attitude, and we can go back to engaging in war, war is necessary. It's rarely necessary, but when it is, it needs to be engaged with. Thank you, Rand. Richard, do you think events in Iran and Venezuela make it less likely the China attacks Taiwan? Yes, I've said this many times for basically two reasons. One, they've seen American capabilities, and you know, I think the Chinese are smart enough, and observant enough to notice that Russian weapons systems are futile against the Americans, and some of the Chinese weapons systems that we used in Venezuela and potentially also in Iran didn't function. The Americans know how to jam them, they know how to make them ineffective,

1:11:59and they have to be watching this and saying the Americans have capabilities that we don't have, and they have capabilities that maybe we need to think about before we enrage them, before we get into a conflict with them. Say, yes, I do think that it makes them think twice about Taiwan just watching what American Israel, Israel with American weapons systems, can do, and the overwhelming dominance, overwhelming dominance. I mean, you can say whatever you want to say about Iran, but the military dominance is just, it's unbelievable. A Israel over Iran, different one, Israel plus the United States over Iran. The second thing is that China always counted on the fact that if it got into war with Taiwan and the United States placed a oil embargo and convinced the Saudis and the Qataris and all these others not to sell oil to China, they could still get oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. Well, if this was successful, two sources of oil for China, in case of a conflict, they're gone.

1:13:03Venezuela and Iran will not be able to supply China with oil. They'll be part of whatever American coalition there is to embargo China, and then they'll be completely dependent on Russian oil, and China does not want to be in that position. So, yes, I think for those two reasons, and just because now they have a sense that America will do something, now Trump could send them in the opposite seat, but it appears right now that America would do something in very, very tight one, they are now going to hesitate before doing it, and possibly we're voting a war with Russia, with China as a consequence of these missions. Molten splendor. Seeing the photos of huge crowds mourning how many is scary. What percentage of Iranians do you think are ready to be free and go against the Mula and God? You know, I don't know. I don't think anybody knows. I'm going to guess, but this is a guess. I'm going to guess this 40%, I'm also going to guess at about 20%,

1:14:0520 to 30% of Iranians are willing to die for the Mulas and God, and then there's 20, 30% that are somewhat indifferent, that don't feel passionately about this. Okay, so 30 to 50% secular, 20 to 30% fanatic over religious and 20 to 30% could go either way, could go either way. That's my guess. But remember, this is a country of 90 million people, so let's say only 20% of fanatically religious, that's 18 million people. That's a lot of people. So you can fill up lots of squares with those people. But beyond that, but again, I'm guessing, I hope I'm wrong in the secular parties bigger, but even if it's not, you know, 30 to 50% is a lot of people, and if those

1:15:06people have the courage to actually bring about the world that they want to live under, then the situation in Iran will change dramatically, change dramatically. Liam, when it comes to fighting for success and happiness in your life, is it not you versus the world, it's you versus you? Well, it's mostly you versus you, and you have to overcome whatever psychological barriers you have, you have to be motivated, you have to do that. But there is a sense in which the world, particularly in the world we live in today, is holding you back. You have to figure out where you want to live because of regulations and taxes and controls, and you might have to move. There might be jobs that are basically close to you because of irrationality in the world. So there is a sense in which the world stands against you, you know, kind of a mixed economy, and if you live in Iran or if you live in the Middle East, if you were someone like that, then the world is against you, and you have to get out of there, and you have to figure out how to do that, and that's a struggle. So there is an element of the

1:16:09world being against you, but much of the struggle is making yourself the best that you can be. Casino's home to hundreds of Casino-style games that you can play for free anytime, anywhere. So sign up now at chumbacacino.com to claim your free welcome bonus. That's chumbacacino.com and live the chumbalites. Sponsored by Chumbacacino, no purchase necessary VGW group void for prohibited by law, 21-plus terms and conditions apply. Hoppe Campbell, world objectives now used to think a few brilliant novels would change the world. Uproot all the entrenched evil rapidly. Well, I don't know who are these objectives you're talking about, but look, a few brilliant novels will change the world. It might not happen quickly. It might not happen in your lifetime, but they are going to change

1:17:13the world, and it will be a few novels to do it. Now, it's a few novels that impact a few people that then write other books and do other activities that impact more people, that then do more activities and write more books and do more stuff, and they change more people. But it all have started with a few books. So, no, I don't think anybody would, the naivete might have been about the time frame, but not about the fact that these books will change the world. Ron says, thank you for keeping us up to date. I'm happy to do it, and thank you for all the support while I am doing it. It is greatly valued. Let me just take a quick look at what's going on in the world.

1:18:23Okay, an American flag bulk tanker, the M.T. Center, Stenner Imperative, which is one out of 10 tankers that are part of the U.S. Navy's tanker security program, tasked with guaranteeing the military access to fuel delivery in global conflict zones and national emergencies, was struck this morning by several projectiles launched by Iran while pierced at the port of Bahrain. The attack resulted in several fired fires on board, which have since been extinguished, though the extensive damage to the vessel is still unknown. I mean, it is surprising that Bahrain with the, basically the command of the Navy's fifth fleet was not better protected, and that the docks they were not better protected given how important all this is. All right. All right, more and more reports are coming out about who's been killed in Lebanon among the

1:19:30Gisbala and the naming names, the naming names. Okay. All right. According to the IDF, the war will not end in a few days. U.S. military moves more forces and assets to the region. Iranian regime and military sites are being pounded, and but it's going to take more than a few days to get them to capitulate. All right. I mean, it's going to be really, really interesting to see what happens in Lebanon. This morning, Lebanese government, including the most senior Shiite leader, Najib Berry, pulled all political cover for Gisbala. Government authorities and Lebanese army

1:20:35will aid in a bet, all actions that restores national sovereignty and a statement of the unarmed. So that means that the Lebanese army is going to go after Gisbala. Now, they've said this many times before, let's see if they actually do it, actually do it this time. Israel is basically given notice the 50 southern Lebanese villages to evacuate. I wouldn't be surprised if Israeli ground forces enter into southern Lebanon. Israel called up 100,000 reserve soldiers in anticipation of exactly this. All right. All right, let me say, who has this been eradicated? Yeah, the head of intelligence that Gisbala is being killed.

1:21:42All right, back to your questions. I remind you to become a monthly supporters of the Iran book show incredibly valuable and real help to me. You can do that on patreon.com and just put your own book show in and $2 up to $1,000 is become a monthly supporter. It is very, very helpful. Richard says, I like the new chat laid over the live video. Do you think Bitcoin drop might be caused by Iran regime insiders owning trading crypto to evade sanctions? No, I don't think that's, I mean, crypto is dropping because it's, I mean, it hasn't dropped that much now. It's, you'd think that if Bitcoin was being used by the Iranians, they'd be buying right now in order to get out of their currency and into something that they can move around the world. And the fact that Bitcoin is not going up as a consequence of the war, suggests that Bitcoin is, I don't know what the value of Bitcoin is exactly, right? It's, it's, it's not a hedge against anything. It's not a hedge against geopolitical instability.

1:22:47Gold is, but Bitcoin is not. And Bitcoin is sitting at $6,500, $65,500 over the last month. It's down 17% over the last six months. It's down 41% over the last year. It's down 30% over the last five years. It's up 35%. That's five years. The S&P has done better than Bitcoin over the last five years. Now, it depends which date you pick and choose. But no, Bitcoin is not doing well, which is surprising. This is exact kind of circumstances you'd expect Bitcoin to do very well in. And it's not. Matt was listening to Alex from ARC UK, who is great on this issue. She said, it will be difficult for Iranians to retake the government given. There are no clear opposition party that will lead the charge. They have Pallavi, but he doesn't have a coalition pushing to install them thoughts. I mean, basically, good at that. It's going to be hard. But, but, you know, I suspect

1:23:50that there are people waiting in the wing for the right opportunity to become, or attempt to become leaders of opposition in Iran, generals in the military, who might break away. I suspect that once is on the United States, clear out to the extent that they can, the elements of the Islamic Revolutionary God and make it very, very costly for anybody to belong to the Islamic Revolutionary God, clear out the major players politically with the Islamic regime. I suspect that, you know, we go to, we will see some opposition figures rising up and trying to coalesce around somebody. Maybe it'll be the Shah. Maybe it'll be somebody else. But, you know, it's not obvious. You know, we don't know who the players are on the ground. And there's very little communication.

1:24:51Internet is down. But so I don't think we know who all the players are going to be and who all the players are. For that matter, we don't know right now. What is going on with the various, people like the Kurds who have arms and who have arm military and are they engaged? Are they fighting off? Are they trying to kick out elements of the Iranian military from their territories? There's a lot going on in Iran right now on the ground that we just are not aware of. I also suspect the Mossad has contacts in Iran. I mean, they've clearly got spies, but they might have already established contacts with certain potential opposition figures, certain people in the military. They have been more moderate candidates for presidency, that the Iranian government shot down and said, you can't run for president. We won't allow you. You're too much of a moderate. Maybe some of those people will come around and go on a public

1:25:53support. So I think it's too soon to just write off the opposition. It's true. We don't know. It's true. It's going to be hard. But I don't think we can say that it just won't happen or it can't happen. I'm still hopeful. Now, I'll go with them. Is Trump's presidency one giant temper tantrum? Well, no. I think it's a series of many, many temper tantrums, some of them productive and some of them not productive. Most of them not productive and a few productive like this one. John, what's a good way to trade? Tell a reddit here from 2311 Racing. Game nights fun until someone spends five minutes lining up one shot. Chalk, breathe, re-chalk, still aiming. While they figure it out, I fire up Chamba Casino. I can spin anywhere, anytime, and there's always a new social casino game every week. Spins happen way faster than that shot. Play now at chambacasino.com. Let's Chamba, sponsored by

1:26:56Chamba Casino, no purchase necessary. VGW Group Fortware prohibited by law, 21 plus terms and conditions apply. What's a good way to trade for the optimistic outcome? It regime change in a relatively much better successor establishment. What assets will perform well in this happens? Well, if that happens, I would short oil, I would short gold, and I would, you know, if the stock market goes down a lot, I would buy stocks or buy options and stocks. So the stock market will rebound dramatically. Oil will drop significantly below 60 potentially, and I think gold will drop, so that's one way to play this. You could also short natural gas futures, because it could drop a lot. You know, shoulding be where, because if things go up, you can lose a lot of money in the meantime, but that would be the way to play. You could buy put options, which are safer. That would be the way to play a victory here. It's, you know, also, I would say buy Israeli stocks,

1:28:02but they went up so much today that I'm not sure it's worth buying them. Maybe that's already priced in. I mean, there's clearly, the Israeli stock market is saying this is going to be victory, and Israel is going to be safer, and everything's going to be good. And the American stock market is saying this is a disaster. This is really, really bad. Nothing good will come of it. So, you know, you could play those two off of each other by, you could even short one and buy the other. They can't both be right. So one is right and one is wrong, and you have to decide which one is which. Let's see what futures are doing right now. Yeah, stock market's down. 1.2, 1.5%, something like that. Small stocks even more. Yeah, 1.5. So that's the futures. The market hasn't opened yet, of course. That happens within three minutes. Yeah, in three minutes, the market will open, and we'll see what the stocks do. If there is no foreign debt and currency not backed by gold, why can't the Fed print unlimited money and give it to the banks endlessly? How does the money circulate between Fed treasury

1:29:06and banks? Oh, well, I mean, that's a big question that we would have to do a whole show about, but the reason they can't just print unlimited money and give it to the banks is that that creates inflation. Prices go up to reflect the increased amount of money. So the money is in the banks. In other words, the money is given to consumers. Consumers then go out and spend it, and that drives up prices. And it drives up asset prices, and it drives up asset values. So everything goes up, and so the pinning of money negates whatever benefit it might have had. But in terms of the whole way it circulates and all of that, that is a big question that we would need a lot more time for. Roman Kato, energy is just a suspended operation. I said that earlier in the show, is this Kassat trying to pressure the world economy to make Trump stop or rational decision? It's a rational decision. They can't ship anything out, right? The LNG terminal is on the golf. The states of Homos are blocked. Why would they continue to produce LNG if they can't ship the LNG

1:30:10anyway? And storing the LNG is dangerous because these missiles are falling, and the LNG is very explosive. So no, it's a completely rational decision. It has nothing to do with oppressing the global economy. It has everything to do with the states of Homos. And until the United States opens those states or gets them opened in some way, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of countries stopped producing oil and natural gas and waited out. All right, this is the final question I have right now. Greg says, the on-screen display should allow the chat to be seen during replay, including comments that might otherwise be hidden by the host blocking a user. I think it's going to be allowed to be seen during replay. We'll see. I don't know how this works. We'll see if it works. About comments that might otherwise have been hidden by host, no, you won't be able to see those. Those are hidden. They're gone. And there's no reason to have

1:31:13them. All right, let me quickly scan to see if there's anything exciting. As I said, Ali Lajani, who is the number one head of whatever the Iranian government right now, is a conscala. You might not want conscala. It doesn't get any better than this. Hopefully, they kill him soon. Oh, that's interesting. You know, it's interesting if this is true. There's a famous prison in Tehran called Mawan, where political prisoners are being held. Political prisoners are held in this. It's a horrible, horrible place. Anyway, supposedly, according to Iranian opposition sources,

1:32:13Israeli and US strikes on the military and intelligence sites in Mawan have basically allowed all the prisoners to escape, to escape. Now, this is from a human rights organization called Hengar, and it's a developing story. You know, who knows if this is true, but that is amazing if that is true. Good for them. Good for them for doing that. Let's say, yeah, I mean, it was, well, increasingly, it was themselves a shooting gallery. There's no weight to stop the Israelis and Americans from shooting anything they want to shoot. And now the question is, how quickly can the United States and Israel completely degrade Iran's defense capabilities? Okay, Islamic Revolutionary Guard circulated information overnight

1:33:19that said that they were cancelling. Haminees, Haminees, Fatwa banning nuclear weapons. This is an attempt to claim that they're developing nuclear weapons as we speak. This is being interpreted as a final act of blackmail. They promoted the coalition to prepare strikes on underground facilities in Fodor. They can't do anything, but hopefully, this will encourage the Americans to go all in on the nuclear facilities and destroy every last one of them. Supposedly, there's a real conflict developing right now, which is exactly what I expected and what I hope would happen and what I think is going to save this, unfolding conflict between the regular army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Now, it's hard to verify this. It's not no exactly what's going on, but supposedly, there is a conflict, which is not surprising, right? That is how this ends.

1:34:22The Iranian military takes control. Supposedly, there have been local clashes into Iran between the army and the IRGC, Al-Tesh, which is the Army units reportedly refused to transfer a defense reserves to the IRGC and declined to participate in suppressing street protests. There were reports that Al-Tesh High Command is distancing itself from what it calls suicide or Islamic Revolutionary Guard orders to attack tankers in U.S. bases. The army is positioning itself as an institution of national salvation for a post-revolutionary period. Yeah. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Israel strikes an IRGC headquarters have significantly undermined the God's ability to control the capital. Notice that Israel is not attacking as much, at least, Iranian military facilities. It's focused primarily on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. The protest in Tehran is to fund N Shewaz against the regime.

1:35:29In spite of all the bombing and everything that's going on, people in the street protesting, there have been mass transfers of political prisoners. As I said, maybe some of them have been refeeded with an attack on the one big prison. Palavau has the Shah as called in security forces to side with the people. We'll see what happens. I mean, the reality is that the biggest player here who could put pressure on the Iranians to open up the states of Formos is China, and supposedly Beijing is putting a lot of pressure on the Iranians to open up the states of Formos. There's a radical faction of Islamic Revolutionary Guard that's preparing for escalation,

1:36:34potentially going nuclear, and whatever transition council there is, and then, of course, there's a military that's trying to be more moderate. I think that is that is the latest. All right. Good. I will leave it there. I will be back sometime tomorrow. I hope. I'm switching hotels tomorrow. I'll be in Durham in Northern England. I'm hoping that the hotel there has decent internet. I've got an event tomorrow night at Durham, so I'll probably be broadcasting again early, not as early as today a little later, but early. If the internet is good enough up there, I'll test it in advance. I think this new way of streaming, directly from

1:37:38Restream, is working pretty well, so I will be adopting that on my travels, and maybe even at home. If I can get everything working, and with that, I will call it a day. Thank you all. For being here, thanks to all the super chatters, and I will see you guys, hopefully tomorrow. Tomorrow, then maybe also on Wednesday. Thursday is going to be a challenge. Friday, certainly no. I'll be flying all day, but we're back to a regular schedule from home on Saturday, at least for a few days before I travel again to Honduras. All right, guys. Thank you. See you tomorrow. Bye.