Iran War Escalates; Global Markets React

0:00When the rest of the markets slow down, the futures market keeps moving. Did you know that CME Group S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures trade nearly 24 hours with great liquidity? In the ETF markets, volume and liquidity lessons after 4 p.m. until the next morning. But with futures, you get trading opportunities both day and night. Learn more at cmegrope.com slash equity futures. The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off. Deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll.

1:01Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships, and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down. Often without clear warning size, in season 3 of the Visibility Gap, Dr. Guy Winch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of the Visibility Gap, a podcast presented by Signal Healthcare. Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts, Radio, News This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. With Pricewaterhouse Coopers right now, Coopers in Life, we remember it as well. Alexis Crowe, Darken's Advertisement this morning.

2:03What does your shop say about the capitalization, the options of big tech? They feel like they're playing by their own rulebook because of their profitability, because they're young Turks out in San Francisco and all that. But what does PWC say about the bond issuance or the stack buyback? I mean, this is just continue. Thanks so much, Tom, for having me. I think in that room, credit conditions are pretty easy, and what we hear from a lot of investors and developers is that these are top-tier borrowers, so there's no concern about mounting piles of leverage. How about mounting piles of $100 oil and the impact that has on the global economy? Is it a short-term blip you guys aren't too concerned about it? Or are you reworking your models and thinking about GDP and inflation and that kind of thing? Paul, thanks so much. I mean, this is not Russia, Ukraine. This is the largest shock that we've had to the global energy system since 1979.

3:03That time, as we know, oil doubled in value and were headed that way again. Appreciate what the former gentleman said. I would say that yes, effects of this will be localized, but in the United States, there are downstream impacts. So we think about that growth in America right now is overwhelmingly tilted toward the investment spend in AI. And where do the semi-conchips come from that go into fabrication of AI and data centers? They come from South Korea. Where does South Korea's oil come from? It comes from the Middle East. So there are long-term implications of what's happening. Even the downstream impacts are fertilizers here in the US as we come into the planting season. Do you do your research not to us or do you have minions that do this for me? My God, what a fabulous research not. Thank you. Get that from Pricewaterhouse Coopers, folks, as you can. PW, see, I love your first chart about the multinationalization of American companies. We still to this day underplay that, don't we?

4:06Yep. So that's it. 53.6% of the revenue of the tech portion of the S&P 500 is earned overseas. Which means that again, those companies that we're all relying on in terms of prosperity in America are not immune to slowing growth overseas. Are they international stocks where I don't need to diversify internationally? I can just buy Apple because they're everywhere. I would still, I would still bank on diversification and getting into European baskets and Asian baskets and we should say that. Of course, the outperformance of the SCI has been pretty impressive. Yes. So how do we start adjusting our GDP models? I mean, we just had Delta come out today. They said they took a $400 million higher fuel cost just in the month of March. So this really is hitting the economy. Is this going to materially slow the economy? Or is it again, is it something maybe they can power through? Well, it'll be interesting to see what the Fed says with its SEP coming out.

5:06Generally, I think you would say they'll bank on this something you can look through right in terms of GDP growth because again, this fallacy is that AI is insulated from the rest of kind of policy shocks in the globe. Nevertheless, I would say the US consumer is super price sensitive when it comes to the price they pay at the pump and we're coming into the summer driving season. So larger share of income will go toward transportation. And with oil where it is, diesel today in California is six and a half. That's going to put pressure on the purse. I was thunder struck by the price of diesel in Phoenix like 10 days ago. I mean, I think there's not been enough said probably think about refinery products. Correct. Especially in California. Gas oil, fuel oil is looking at the way they go from the chemistry of oil in the naphtha into ethylene and that. I mean, the petrochemical business went to price water and I was Cooper C of that. Well, so it's interesting just thinking about some of these down, you know, refined products. You have Saudi Arabia can get some of these refined products from the east coast over to the

6:11west coast in the red sea to jazan and to yanbu. But that's going to be a logistical overhaul. Something that the finance minister actually prioritized prior to all of this is they would focus on logistics. And here they are. They're going to have to do that. You can get fertilizers out that way as well. But in any given year in the United States, farmers rely on 40% imports to make up urea and fertilizers. So this will be a huge. I think it's way underplayed. Correct. We're all looking at it again. I guess. And I'm sorry, it's way more complicated than that. Correct. And I can see how this is anything but a political headwind for this administration. I've just surprised this from the political perspective given that affordability has come on a gig. And it's massively global. It's amazing. We don't want petrochemicals in America. So they're over somewhere else. We don't have to worry about it. Alexis Crowe with this partner chief economist at PWC, Paul Sweeney with Dr. Crowe. So what do you expect? How do you expect the Fed tomorrow to comment about this? Do you expect them to comment directly? And what do you think they will kind of adjust for this?

7:14Well, I think it'll be, I think the main thing that market participants will looking for is if they're going to give any guidance on whether there will be rate cuts in the future. Obviously, you can expect them to hold pause tomorrow. I think you've seen some of the voting members move from two cuts to one. In which case, I would say, I mean, the other side of things is there's still this rich debate within the Fed right now as to whether or not you focus on the inflation part and price stability of the dual mandate or whether or not you focus on the labor market. Right. You've had some actually highlighting that what Austin Goolsbee calls the four horsemen in the employment market is actually quite strong. So looking beneath non-farm payrolls and the levels and into the rate of U-Star and the unemployment rate, just looking at the vacancy rate, job openings, you actually got a quite healthy labor market. Can we talk UK? I mean, we had the commission or do you have a parking ticket in London? We could have solved that like two hours ago. Alexis Crowe, the migration from St. Andrews

8:15down to LSE. Jasmine Lee, I think it was in the Wall Street Journal like three days ago, with an article on your St. Andrews. Yes. Are there too many ugly Americans in St. Andrews? Well, that delta has changed significantly since my days. So that chart that they put in there, the number of Americans has dramatically risen actually. It's amazing. I mean, to say the least. Okay. So this is the phrase I'm seeing in the British press and this is the Prime Minister. Selective realignment. Is Brexit a failure? I mean, Dr. Crowe, within all your academics, and frankly, PWC London and the huge platform you have in the United Kingdom, are we now at a point where Brexit we could say we've got to do selective realignment? Well, it's interesting. Anything but name, right? A U-turn in anything but name. I mean, fascinating that the now prime minister of Canada, who was then central bank governor in the UK, very clearly stated that Brexit would have a deleterious impact on the British economy and was almost held in contempt of parliament for it. So we're certainly facing the impacts of that

9:18today. And Tom, it's interesting. We've talked about this with the growth outlook. Why has growth not dramatically slowed in the UK? A lot of things were explained away for COVID. But if you look at employment, healthcare, social workers are the largest share of employment. If you look at GDP numbers, the housing market and real estate is the largest share of GDP growth. And that's largely insulated from many downside impacts from Brexit. Tell me just before we go here, the current zeitgeist at PWC, an AI benefiting society. To me, it's a massive, the fancy people love AI and everybody else has crushed. Is that too simplistic? Phenomenal that we're looking at some of the job numbers, right, where layoffs are promised, but basically to channel capital into the physical and technological capital in AI. It's the exact opposite of what is happening in Europe where you actually had the unemployment rate hitting an all time low. So we're in two different, I would say

10:19we're in a tale of two cities here. And the messages are very different across, very different across the Atlantic. I think it's fascinating. I don't know the answer. I don't know if it's a net positive. Well, I know it's going to be a net positive, I guess, but I'm not sure what the cost are. My brother is a fancy guy in this. This is his exact quote. I have no clue where it will be in six months. That's exactly what he said. Yeah. Dr. Scott, thank you so much. What are you writing about next? Get out front here of PWC's world? Natural capital and investing in agriculture. It is the sort of next generation of climate investing because the far right actually like agriculture. What's natural capital? It is the umbrella phrase. It's the new one. It's the umbrella phrase for everything investing in biodiversity credits, farmland restoration, regenerative agriculture. Very good. Alexis Crowe, thank you so much with PWC. I can't say enough about the grind, the academic work that they're doing at their consultancy really of a huge value.

11:23Stay with us more from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. When the rest of the markets slow down, the futures market keeps moving. Did you know that CME Group S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures trade nearly 24 hours with great liquidity? In the ETF markets, volume and liquidity lessons after 4 p.m. until the next morning. But with futures, you get trading opportunities both day and night. Learn more at CME Group.com slash equity futures. For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll. Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships, and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down. Often without clear warning signs, in season three of the visibility gap, Dr. Guy Winch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of the visibility gap, a podcast presented by Signal Healthcare.

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13:31You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app or watch us live on YouTube. We have a very special guest right now. I have a parking ticket outside the Davidov cigar bar in near St. James, you know, near the, you know, the fancy part of London from 14 years ago and Mark rallies here to pick it up. Sir Mark, thank you so much for joining us. I had so much response inside here from Miles Miller and others to your appearance today. I want to start with the way you do it in the United Kingdom. What was it like your first day in the West Midlands? You've got the wonderful uniform. You're doing all the wonderful thing in London, this, you know, the celebrities and all the different stuff probably watching the royal family. Forget about it. What was the first day as a constable like in the West Midlands?

14:32I always wanted to be a, I always wanted to be a police officer and I went to university and then after university and a few months later I'm on the streets of Birmingham. So it's a bit of a, a bit of a shock to the system. In policing, you see life in the roar, you see the best of people and the worst of people. And it was, it was fantastic. The thing that stuck with me through where it is, right, our people are fantastic because they're so committed to the mission. They will stress themselves, strain themselves, put themselves at risk and being part of that has always been a privilege. Sir Mark, what I find it fascinating are the stereotypes that Americans have. Our basic idea is our police are armed with the teeth, all the uproar with ice and all that now. And am I right that a police officer in the streets of the United Kingdom doesn't carry a weapon? Yeah, that's exactly right. It's still like Mary Poppins. It's still like Mary Poppins. Without the dodgy Van Dyke accent, it's still like, it's still, if you're careful now, we get there. No, it's really, that's exactly it. We've got fewer than 10% of our officers are armed,

15:33so we have specialists who are highly trained who we deploy to our incidents. We have such a different context. Our firearms legislation is really restrictive. It's hard for criminals to get hold of guns on the streets of London, not impossible, but we're constantly suppressing that, stopping organized crime gangs bringing illegal firearms in the city. I mean, last year, 2025, we recorded the lowest per capita homicide rate London's ever had, 97. Very mildly, it's slightly bigger city than New York, New York's at record low levels as well. That's 300. We're 97. It's a fantastically safe place, and we're really proud of a policing by-content style that's based on relationships with the communities, minimum use of force, but also being tough when we need to be. Commissioner, how many police officers are in London metropolitan policing? Give us what's a typical officer? We've got about 31,000 officers, about 10,000 unsworn staff, so we police, like City of 9 million people, and just like New York, you've got then millions of tourists and commuters coming in on top of that. I put our people into four broad groups,

16:38so we've got community police officers at the foundation, they work at the same patch every day, they know the community, they're fighting crime, where people live and building that relationship with the communities. Secondly, you've got your response team, so 9-1-1 in your language, 9-9-9 in my language, calls that are going to the turning up and dealing with crisis sort of stabbing domestic violence, whatever else it might be in the moment, and then thirdly, our detectives who are chasing down cases, whether it's street violence, whether it's sort of rape and sexual violence, and they're all supported by organized crime teams who are critical at taking out the most insidious crime that underpins it. Talk to us about just, in the world we live in today, just with Iran, what's going on with Iran? London, obviously a global capital, you have to think about what's going on in the rest of the world, much like the police commissioner of New York City would as well. How do you deal with what's going on in other parts of the world, and how it may relate to, again, a world capital like London? Yeah, so with Jessica Tish yesterday, we've got so much in common between London and New York and sharing ideas and

17:42sharing experiences of threats we're facing. Probably the two greatest cities in the world I would say, and that connection to the rest of the world, those complex diverse communities, it's a fantastic place to be, but it also means you'll link to every challenge in the world. So, for example, with what's going on at the moment in the Middle East, we've had in the last couple of years, we've disrupted more than 20 Iranian-directed plots on the streets of the UK, that's. So, Scotland Yard, we don't just please London, we leave the National Cancer Terrorism policing effort as well, so we have a national responsibility and a citizenship responsibility. Sir Mark Raleigh, with us here, of course, of the London Metropolitan Police, his commissioner, Honourable, with us to say we say good morning to all of you across the United Kingdom and around the world, Bloomberg is surveillance. So, here's the reality, I'm at Scottson Mayfair, I'm like slummon, you know where it is, okay? I'm at Scottson Mayfair, here's the reality, I never sit outside in Europe when I have food or drink, because the phone goes right

18:49off the table, the phones get stolen, stolen, stolen, you're leading a charge in it, what do you need from Tim Cook, so I can sit outside at Scotts again? Okay, so firstly, what are police doing about it and then what can tech companies do about it? So, in the centre of town now, it's at half the rate it was a year ago, last year was 10,000 fewer victims, we've been taking out the organised crime gangs, this is a global, hundreds of million dollar trade, because the problem with the security on these phones is that the tech companies had an amazing job, so we can run our life on our phones, our data secure, people run their banks and everything else, that's fantastic, but the physical securities had less attention, so the phone that gets stolen from you in New York or Paris or London or Madrid or wherever, that can be rebooted and sold as nearly new and sort of wiped, not with your data in it, those phones have been exported to China, Africa, South America,

19:49and sold for high value, and that is driving the trade, what we need from the tech companies is to be able to turn the stolen phone into a brick, if you report it stolen, you should be able to log on to your Android accounts or your iOS accounts and put it down as stolen, and then it's never going to be reactivated, that would crash the second hand value and that would stop the thing, so we can keep driving it down, we hosted a conference in London last year, we had people we had Santiago, Tokyo, Barcelona, Rome, we had cities across the world, are all facing the same, this is an issue for global cities happening across the world, we went to the moon, why can't Tim Cook fix the phone once and for all, I just don't get it, I don't get it either, I like to have that conversation, we used to have a problem in the UK and I imagine here as well where 30 years ago, car radios would be stolen out of cars, guess what, we redesigned dashboards, didn't we, you can't steal the car radio now, it's like integral to whole vehicle,

20:50if you say to your kids, are you worried about the car radio being stolen, if you're mad, so why can't we design this out, it's the same, if that was a brick when it was stolen, that would kill the global trade in this. Talk to us just about technology broadly in policing, I have to think it's like the rest of us, it's changed the way you do your job, your first days to how you're doing it now, how do you stay on top of the technology? So that's one of the things, Commissioner New York and I were discussing yesterday, they clever things they've done, clever things we're doing, exchanging notes on it, keeping pace with that is really critical, both to keep pace with criminals also, to make, let's use the data, a quick couple of examples, so we've been using algorithms and data science to identify the most dangerous men who are pose of threat to women and children, so you get all these allegations of sexual violence, you just follow the case by case, but how do you spot the most dangerous man who's the most big risk, how do 10,000 of the cases, data science does that, and then you throw the kitchen sink and getting him off the streets in prison, another use we've been using facial recognition on the streets of the UK,

21:51life facial recognition, I know that makes people here a bit nervous, we've been really thoughtful and careful about it, we've got 85% public support for it, and we're arresting over 1,000 people, who is dangerous, offended, wanted offenders, it's so powerful. I mean, I looked it up folks, I mean, it's, you know, Lexus taught me how to use Google Gemini and I'm killing it, your case, Jessica Tisha has 100,000 cameras, you have, by this listing, 940,000 cameras, you have eight times as many cameras, you have 85% public support, from where you sit, Sir Mark, what in God's name is America getting wrong, and the idea of getting a thugs off the street with cameras. So, I mean, my whole knowledge of this is slow horses. I mean, that's, that's a great show, isn't it? It's a great, is it real? It's slow horses? No, it's not real. And I hope my personal hygiene's a bit better than the lead character. Would you watch Emma Thompson down Cemetery Road, is that real? It's not, it's not real,

22:51it's great fun though, isn't it? I mean, I watch these shows as well, they're fantastic, any more than a data wire, the wire is real. The cameras work, right? That's the bottom line. The cameras are fantastic, and sort of what they do is, so we have, how about this, our homicide solve rate, over 95% of cases we solve. That's where above American cities, that's partly about technology, it's partly about great detectives. The facial recognition stuff, we've worked hard to make sure we're using it ethically and carefully, we're showing the public the results of the dangerous sex offenders and the wanted people we're taking off the streets, we've got 85% for that support, so I think we can, in policing, make the best use of modern technology, we shouldn't be scared of it, we've got to be thoughtful and clever about it, because if you misuse it, you'll break that trust, and the thing I'm most proud of what we're doing in London, trust in the police is going up, even in this world where trust in the state is so challenged and there's hostile states trying to undermine it, and all of this difficult polarised dialogue, trust in the metty's going up because of the policing we're doing. Why are you here? Here, exchange notes

23:54with Jessica Tish and other commissioners, meeting up with the FBI colleagues because we do this national cancer terrorism work, and that's important to sustain those relationships and talk about cases. So it's like a plumber's convention, it's just everybody's going to get on with it. And then I'm out to the west coast as well to talk to you, you're all taking this part. Oh, junkid, it's sad. Disneyland, very good. What's the biggest challenge for you these days in a world where so much change, so much uncertainty? So keeping pace with the technology, which is hard in the public sector for all the reasons we've discussed, building trust in the world, which is so angry and polarised, and all the hostile debates that go on online is so, so, so difficult, and economic issues means we're at police force, which is having to get smaller. So doing better, we're getting smaller, but we're arresting a thousand people more a month than we were a couple of years ago because of all the clever stuff we're doing and our fantastic people. So Mark, I got one final question. It's critical. I noticed that BBC is a small news organization.

24:54I've heard about it. Over in London, you had a blistering conversation that you need 70 million pounds. That's the currency over there. Right. For policing a football teams of Premier League, like they're basically doing their security off your budget. What in God's name are you going to do about Tottenham being relegated? I mean, what does that do north of London if Tottenham is relegated? Most people outside London will probably celebrate that. I'm an Ashton Villa fan from my burning area. I heard you told us this. I'm not going to sort of shed any tears if I do get relegated. I'm most interested in whether my team get into the Champions League this year. They look pretty good. I mean, the Ashton Villa is extremely good. We've got a brilliant Spanish manager, you know, I am a who's complete transformers. Did you go to the World Cup coming here? As well, aren't you? Did you pose the concert in July at Ashton Villa, the metal concert? No, I didn't. The Aussie Aussie won more on these last concerts. Absolutely. I didn't pull a security thing. No, no, no. I didn't want to see in a couple of decades ago. I saw Bruce Springsteen at Villa Park. That was amazing. That was an amazing thing.

25:57We have to go, but Samark, I have only one thing for you to understand. John Farrow, when he grew up as a tough kid in Coventry, he has a police blotter. The things he did in school, yeah, we're unspeakable. Next time you come, we'll introduce you to John Farrow Coventry in English. A few historic, a few historic clear-ups from saying in my gravely here with all of the men and women in duty. Stay with us more from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube. Jack Jensoats with the taxes. It's really could be with us today doing a strategy there. What is the operative strategy amid war? You know, right now, I think what we look at is both tail risks are opening up,

27:02right? The downside tail risk, I think, is a little bit wider, but you also have the upside tail risk. So what do you do? Well, I think the portfolio here is the strategy to simply stay invested, but shuffle the deck a little bit, right? We're looking at getting a little bit more invested with the U.S. a little bit less susceptible to higher energy prices. You're looking at maybe a little valuation discount because of the correction we've seen. Tech maybe a place to hide here because it's a little bit more on the margin side. Still decent revenues. It's really had a derating more recently. So by the way, stay with us. It's mean to crater. That's Boston's Securities Analysts. Society. Exactly. Crater. Jack, how about earnings? I mean, before the ran war, the focus was on earnings. And earnings were pretty darn good out there for the quarter. And I think most companies were pretty optimistic about the remainder of the year. How do you think is our earnings enough to support these markets here? You know, I think where the starting point matters. So we're coming in from a pretty good perspective. You've got margins that are still pretty wide. So we can see a little bit of maybe room for companies to absorb higher energy prices that are built into that. You know, again,

28:06still up into the right. Maybe we take a little bit off that. So maybe you go from 15% expected for next year to 1413 relative to the rest of the world. That's still pretty good. So when we talk about sort of positioning and portfolios, the more defensive relative bias, I think is still US and US large cap in here. I was going to say because we had the rest of the world actually out performed the US last year. And I'm not, you know, a lot of that was the weakening of the US dollar last year. But so you still feel more or feel comfortable with the maybe a little bit overweight the US versus rest of the world. Yeah. And again, think about it more from a cyclical versus growth trade, right? Part of the trade was that we saw the international develop that will perform because the cyclical portion of the economy started to reaccelerate. Now there's some question about that going forward. If we start to see elevated energy prices for prolonged period of time. So I think maybe you get the growth story coming back into play. And that's where the US I think has a little bit of an advantage. So you're you're you're at Boston University. You're in the party and there's an oriental rug when you go up the stairs and all that and you're trying to be smart. Wise guy, can you explain to me Walmart with a PE forward of 43 and Microsoft with a PE

29:12of 23? I think across the Arkham, my career, that started it fully. You know where that is. And the Arkham, my career, that's never happened. Yeah. And I think part of this is the baby, the AI story that's built into that, right? We sort of had that derating that we were just talking about. Yeah. Anything that was associated with potentially being adversely impacted by AI, sell it down, sell it first, ask questions later. Let's see how this plays itself out. You know, maybe Walmart is maybe a net beneficiary as opposed to being maybe eating alive, so to speak. I'll get that market wants a higher premium for that. Where's the biggest delinkage right now of common sense for our listeners and viewers? You know, to me, it comes back to that tech backdrop again, right? What's the US good at? It's good at innovation. That's one thing that I think we're always going to be a strong part relative to the rest of the world. And yet to see this massive derating in here, to me, thanks. Are we really going to see our sort of leadership in that area given back? I don't think so. Okay. So I'm in Phoenix and doing a CFA thing. And I go to the

30:12giant's fabulous baseball parks. Scott's still Paul YouTube. He's perfect out there. I'm moving over there next week. And they're playing like the world baseball people. And a dining breadman comes up to the plate. The first pitch, the ball came down somewhere near Flagstaff. How much of the Red Sox can amiss Alex breadman? The narrative for the Red Sox has changed. It's all about pitching and defense. And then we'll scrap out three to two wins. That's what's coming down to the Dodgers of our youth. Exactly. I mean, I mean, Raphael's like in San Francisco way. But hi, Alex is like, um, 10 million with a cup. Hi. Yeah. And we can't put it on Roman Anthony. I mean, he's not going to do it. It's the pitching staff. I'm telling you that that's that's going to be the key. If they stay healthy, they've got four quality starters. It's just my, my, my youth. Jack, I think thank you. Alex breadman with a cup is going to be something to say at least, uh, Jack Yanisowicz with his lead portfolio strategies at New

31:12Texas. Stay with us more from Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll. Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships, and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down, often without clear warning size. In season three of the visibility gap, Dr. Guy Winch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of the visibility gap, a podcast presented by Signal Healthcare. Support for the show comes from public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. And they've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios. One of these tools is called generated assets. It allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes. So let's say you're interested in something specific,

32:13like biotech companies with high R&D spend, small cap stocks with improving operating margins, or the S&P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there is an ETF that fits your exact criteria. But on public, you just type in a prompt and they're AI screens thousands of stocks and build a one-of-a-kind index. You can even backtest it against the S&P 500, then you can invest in a few clicks. Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. It's public.com slash market. Add paid for by public holdings, brokerage services by public investing member Finra SIPC, advisory services by public advisors, SEC registered advisor, crypto services by zero hash, sample prompts are for illustrative purposes only, not investment advice. All investing involves risk of loss, see complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures. So there's a little noise about AI, but times too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300,000 can use

33:19AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94% of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off. Deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smart to business. IBM. You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday after news from seven to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app or watch us live on YouTube. These favorites for this morning. Jason trying to come in up here in about seven eight minutes is all but right now the newspaper is much needed. Here's Alexis Kustoffer. All right, March Madness is here guys and there is an article in the Wall Street Journal that says you have to think like an investor to win your bracket pool. You know what that means? You don't pick Duke. Yeah, once again, we know that. Excuse me. Yeah, Duke enters the NCAA tournament as the number one overall seed. And the Wall Street Journal says

34:20that's exactly what the smartest thing you can do is to pick against them. They said the blue devils are right now the most overvalued team. Yep. So you bet against them it's strategically optimal. They also said there's an extra incentive for shorting Duke. Two starters are injured so they're limping their way in and the statistical models are inflating or might be inflating their chances. One of those starters is coming back for the tournaments. Don't worry. Okay, see, I knew you're on it. All the rest are inside. Oh, well, yes, they're all freshmen. The reason that they never win since this playing the one and done freshman kids is because they're kids. They can't play against men when it gets to the top. Why do they allow this? We've to stop the show. Why in God's name do they allow this? Because they should. The players should get compensated because they're creating huge value for the University of Washington. So they get a ton of money. Absolutely. Why should they give them a ton of money to stay around? If they want to stay, they can stay if they want to leave. They can leave. So it's a it's a fair system. The players are getting value for or getting paid for their value. It's just hard to build a team.

35:21Yeah, I'm sorry. Well, let's get back to it because which team should you pick? Which sort of begs the question? And according to the paper, Michigan. Yeah. So the Wolverines, they say, have nearly the same title chances as Duke, but they say they are the most value of any team in the field. Don't tell West Lafayette at the end of that boiler up. Yep. You did it. Exactly. You're right. You got the boiler makers going all the way. I got the boiler makers going all the way, but I do a triple in UNC taking him out because Trimble's been there for four years next. All right. It is not just investors. Now some states are adding gold to their investment portfolios. This one's from the Wall Street Journal. So some states actually now have laws on the books requiring them to buy precious metals as a hedge against economic turmoil. Wyoming is one of them. They spent $10 million on gold bars, the actual physical gold back in December. It's now valued at $11.6 million. Okay. So not bad for a few months' investment. Other states also looking at doing

36:23this Utah, West Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia, all pursuing legislation to further integrate these precious metals into their economies. Look, there are critics. Wyoming's governor says it's illiquid gold's too volatile, but they're hedging. Yeah, it's a hedge. So I'm not sure I'd never heard of them owning the physical gold, but that's interesting. Wyoming is actually putting it in a building that once belonged to the Casper Star Tribune. It's owned by Wyoming's reserve. Sort of like, I don't know, you've got the old West, you know, at that old West feeling. All right, here's a good one, especially for coin collectors. I don't know if you guys collect coins. I used to I did nickels and pennies. Yeah, very cool. Okay, so here's something for you. The U.S. Mint has rolled out temporary commemorative coins to celebrate our nations. The dime is very controversial here. Do we know why? It's because on the flip side of it, the new design left out the olive branch, which is supposed to signify peace. We still have the eagle with the talent holding 13 arrows, I guess for the original 13 colonies, but they say now beneath the eagle is the inscription

37:27liberty overturning. So this temporary design was finalized in 2024 before President Trump took off as some thought he had something to do with this. The artist and the U.S. Mint say it symbolizes the early U.S. quest for freedom from Britain. But don't get too crazy about it, everybody. It's only here for a year. This is the Bloomberg surveillance podcast available on Apple's Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, tune in and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal. If you follow markets, you know the value of long-term thinking. You plan, you diversify, you prepare for volatility. But even the best strategies can prevent every bad day. For more than 75

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39:30Uber Eats, official on-demand food delivery partner of the NFL.