Iran conflict

0:00Hey, is this strawberry? How y'all doing out there today? I hope everybody is doing well. If you're not doing well, let's find a way to get well, be well, and look well. Today we're going to talk about what's happening in Iran. They lost a life there. I don't know the person, but I pray for everybody, so we're going to hear what's happening in Iran, because in my event, our human is a human. Life is life, so let's hear what's happening in their world today tomorrow in the next day. To move toward the regime change, and it is the greatest opportunity for Iran's people to take back its own country, and it's the only chance. And together with the rebuttionary, guard cops and police, Iranians, people should take up its great,

1:06take back its greatness again. And the food and the next leader should be, President Trump said there are some good candidates, so he's hinting that there are some people in his mind. Do you think the attacks will continue? And for how long? No. President Trump is willing to continue the attacks, but he's probably thinking the reactions of, well, check the reactions of the American people according to the opinion poll. There were big divide between the flow and call attacks when the Iran's manufacturing did nuclear weapons and better to attack. Due to these opinions, public opinions, the

2:10executives of Trump and the administration explained to media why they did the preemptive attacks, and there was some information that Iran was contemplating the attacking the American U.S. bases in Middle East. And so there was no otherwise than doing the attacks, but Trump's, President Trump said that whether to continue the, how long it will continue maybe a week or maybe to accomplish the purpose. We're joined in the studio by an expert. This is Ms. Sakana Shisachi, Senior Research Director of the JIME Center, the Institute of Energy, Economic Japan, an expert on the Iran situation. First of all, this morning, the death of Ayatollah Ali Hamaneh has been reported in Iran. The state media has confirmed this. What does this signify for Iran?

3:14Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hamaneh took office in 1989, and for almost 40 years has been the supreme, most powerful person within the country. This is causing great shock, I think, around Iran. On the other hand, he was very elderly at the age of 86. So one day that he would no longer be in this position had I think probably been expected. However, that he would be lost in this way, it would be producing great shock. And within Iran looking at the attacks taking place, the Iranian media has reported that 24 out of 30 foreign provinces have been attacked. The scale of the attacks, what is your view of that? Yes, it's an extremely large scale attack which is being conducted in all probability across each of the provinces of Iran. There will be revolutionary guard call facilities, I believe

4:15those bases are what have been targeted. An elementary school has been attacked. We hear that girls, female students have become casualties, but it appears that that elementary school was built inside of a base of the revolutionary guard. That is what some Israeli media is reporting. So it appears that the revolutionary guard call have been targeted, and this is a large scale attack against those facilities. What are you most focused on? The first attack was in the center, Tehran. This would be the officers of the Supreme Leader. That was what where the attack was first directed. This attack is very much targeting the core of the administration, and ultimately aimed toward destruction of that administration. I think that it was the key thing that I take from this. We're looking now at the picture of the Supreme Leader's

5:15residence with black smoke rising. It appears it's the densely built area. Yes, other presidential buildings are nearby, and this is in the center, Tehran. It's in the center of the administration, and that was what has been targeted. So the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has died. So the US and Israeli goal objective has been achieved. Khamenei in this way has died. That alone will that destroy the existing administration of regime is unknown. Therefore this regime was established back in 1979 as a result of the Iranian Revolution, and for a very long time already it's been established as an administration as a regime. Therefore the loss of one Supreme Leader will that destroy the entire regime. I think that would be too early to say. Yes, well, to the President Trump, well, some good people in my

6:44mind that we can take up its leadership, and there are several candidates, so that there are possibilities we're seeing around. There are some people who could take up to its leadership, and there was people who are communicating outside Iran like it was the US and then other countries. That's what the President Trump was thinking, whether that candidate is there or not, at this point it is quite unclear. Massive scale attacks, and for the four days the news media reported that they will continue, and it's been a day and half has passed, so maybe he will continue this scale attacks for three days. How you should take this information? Iran, at this stage, has started a retaliatory

7:51attack in a large scale, and how Iran will be able to continue this retaliatory attack, and that's at one point that drawing attention, because the number of the missiles and the number of the drones limited, so they cannot see attacking in this scale. So President Trump said four days, because Iran will, if it's so, it's all the artillery for four days, and after spending all the military arsenals, the President might be planning to attack. And then what's the influence to the global economy that's straight up at home, it's the choke point of the maritime navigation, and it is in effect closed. What is this location? This is the artillery for the global energy,

8:58and it is the exit to the Parisian Gulf, and then all the nations located here are the oil producing countries, so the global consumption, about 20% of the global consumption of oil and gas produced from the middle is, so it is a very important place. So the impact on the global, the world's significant, yes, if the state of farmers is closed, then 20% supply of the globe is very large, and if that comes to a stop, then the supply quantity will change, and that will raise prices, that will impact all countries around the world. Looking at Japan, 90% of crude oil Japan is dependent on the Middle East, so the impact on Japan would be serious, too, would you say? According to statistics from last year, 95% of the crude oil is imported from these Middle East

10:01and countries that are on the Persian Gulf, so if that supply stops, that will have an impact upon Japan's energy situation. However, Japan is reliant upon imported crude oil, which is why we have reserves. Just in case there was a supply problem with crude oil, there is a certain amount of crude oil, which has been held in reserve that we can rely upon, so there's no certain panic about this, however, should this practical closing of the straight-up almost continue, that will have a price impact, and that will also result in higher prices for Japan's energy procurement, and that will have a result of the banal daily lives, citizens daily lives, too. Yes, and also looking at the Iranian side, the Iranian side is conducting retaliatory attacks across the Middle East, those locations which have been targeted, what's your take on those? Yes, it's an extremely large scale, is actually much bigger in scale than

11:06most people had probably imagined that these retaliations have been conducted. The target of the retaliation is that these various countries have US bases, and it has been expected that that would be what would be targeted, but actually outside of the US bases attacks are also being carried out, so the retaliation scale is greater than had been foreseen, but with the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with that news now being released, there will be anger with that death, perhaps that is also some of the meaning that is incorporated into the retaliations, with the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and also with the senior officials and commanders being killed in these attacks, too. What do you think will be the movement of the Iranians going forward? Looking back at the June war last year, I think Iran was very much caught out, there was almost 30 senior military personnel that was killed, and it was said at that time

12:13that Iran could fall into complete disarray, but in fact the military is still functioning and the administration, the regime continued. This time Iran had to a certain degree expected that there would be another attack and they would have been preparing for that, so with this single wave of attacks that this would not result in wavering the administration, affecting the administration, is what they would have been prepared for, but the U.S. Israeli attack is on a vast scale, too. So what will happen over the next few days, well, bit by bit, create a greater expectation for what will happen in the future. So in terms of that future, what will happen to the whole of the Middle East and region at this point in time, is there anything that you can say about that? Iran is targeting not just the U.S. bases in the countries around it, but is also retaliating against

13:13various other locations, so it appears that they are bringing the surrounding countries into this fight, how they will then retaliate against Iran should that happen. The conflict may continue to escalate further, but those countries around Iran are also, have placed great importance upon the stability and peace of the Middle East and region, so that those countries, if they did not wish to see a spread in the conflict, then they would probably make greater efforts toward bringing these, this fighting to an end, that was Ms. Sakhanashi Sashri and expert on the Iran situation. Thank you. Attacks by U.S. and Israel to Iran, the N.H.K.s news, N.H.K. debate program,

14:16leaders of the parties discussed. The early settlement is wanted, and I think the government should make a diplomatic effort to resolve this, because it has a big impact for the economy due to the energies, and then Japanese to make a thorough evaluation why this has happened. There was an Iran's attitudes, which caused this, so the retaliation can cause other retaliations, and we have to avoid that. At the same time, the closure of the straight-up homes, and so there was an impact which could influence a lot of things, and the government needs to make every effort to support that,

15:19and then we would like to make efforts for the resolution, and the people who opposed to the government, and how that will proceed, and the security of the navigation security of Japanese people in the regions, we need to do everything at the same time, and I think there was a reaction of the market, so we need to support that. U.S. and Israel, they didn't wait for the United Nations Security Council resolutions, and that could influence international laws, and we need to point out that it's been four years since the Ukraine was started, and I'm also concerned about that. The influence to the economy needs to be considered, international laws need to be

16:22really followed, and we have to terminate this conflict as soon as possible, and then restrictions required, peace by the power, and older by the power, the big companies, for the survival of its country, and for its national interests, they prioritize Japan and energy, and for the food of Japanese to achieve the independence, I think that's the clear infringement of international laws, and resolutions, early resolutions are necessary, and then we have the responsibility to protect the Japanese people, international laws need to be respected, and then they democracy, and then human rights need to be respected, and we need to resolve this through the

17:28diplomatic channel. This is a clear infringement of UN charter, and I think there are voices of the condemnations from global leaders, but the Prime Minister Takaichi has not condemned us all. This is the severe aggression by US and Israel, and I hope the Prime Minister Takaichi should condemn America's action, and from here we are joined by Mr Yoshida Toru, a comedy commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities and expert on the kudo market, to hear about the impacts of all the Japanese economy. He joins us by phone, can you hear us? Yes, hello, thank you, thank you for being here. Mr Yoshida, the strange of hormones is currently not passable by shipping, around 90% of crude oil is our alliance in Japan upon the Middle East. What do you think will

18:35be the impact? Yes, the closure of the street of hormones, as well as the worsening of fighting, if this becomes longer term, there is a fear of rising prices. This could have a large impact on Japan, however, on the other hand, if the situation worsens in the short term I think any impacts could be just limited. So first of all, if we look at that short term limited impact, in the case of the short term, what would be the impacts? Yes, currently the crude oil market, it is the weekend, so in the new week, tomorrow morning, Japan time, where the markets open, there could be a big move on the market as a result of what's happened, and if this becomes a long term situation, what would be the impact upon crude oil prices? What is your forecast?

19:37Yes, if it becomes long term, then there is a possibility that crude oil prices will rise, and with the removal of the provisional gasoline tax, that reduced prices we could see in the rising prices as a result, and also looking at electricity costs or the price of logistics at rise, this could cause the prices to rise again to inflate. So there is a lot of discussion right now about dealing with the heights in prices. There could be an impact again on people's lives. This has an impact on the global economy. What is your expectation from a global scale? Yes, this fighting, if it worsens, if it goes over a longer time scale, first of all, the Asian region which purchases a lot of crude oil from Middle East, there could be a negative impact upon those economies, and for the world as a whole, there could be a further reigniting

20:41of price rises, so it's not just Asia that could be affected, the whole globe, economy could be affected as a result of this. Thank you very much, that was Mr Yushida to a rule of Rakuten Securities. Thank you for joining us.