Inflation or demand destruction?

Monday 30th March 2026

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As the Middle East conflict enters its fifth week, geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, driving Brent crude back toward $112 a barrel. Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters to explore the shifting market narrative as investors weigh the immediate threat of surging inflation against the growing risk of demand destruction. The pair discuss the latest University of Michigan survey, which showed a sharp drop in consumer sentiment alongside rising inflation expectations, and examine why bond yields are fluctuating as markets struggle to price in a potentially protracted war. They also preview a critical week of data, including US payrolls and eurozone CPI, while noting the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers at the ECB and Bank of England as they move to anchor long-term inflation expectations in a highly volatile environment.

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