Inflation Drops, Rate Hike Odds Shift

0:00It's April 29. From your city to your ears, this is Adelaide News Today, powered by AI. Markets thought a rate hike from the Reserve Bank next week was a lock, pricing in an 86% chance of jumping from 4.1% to 4.35%. But today's March inflation data flipped the script a bit, dropping those odds to 75%. The headline annual rate hit 4.6%. A touch below forecasts, but the bank's key trimmed mean stayed flat at 3.3%, that's still above the 2-3% target, yet not climbing higher after recent hikes. Domestic pressures show some relief, with services inflation dipping to 3.6% and non-tradables to 4.6%. An oil shock jacked up energy costs, but timely spending data points to cooling demand and tanking confidence. Bikes are split, much like the bank's board last month, which voted 5-4 for a hike. Some push for another rise to fight pass through costs, while others warn of piling on amid

1:00the energy crunch and low consumer vibes. With the federal budget looming, the board faces a tight call hike now, or wait for clearer fiscal signals. Either way, they're threading the needle between taming prices and dodging a deeper slowdown.