HRRN's Brisnet.com Call-in Show - March 12, 2026

0:00This is the brisnet dot com call in show on the horse racing radio network. The phone lines are open. Call now 888-966-HR-R-N. That's 888-966-4776. Now, here's Bobby Newman and James Scully. Good evening, welcome to the brisnet dot com call in show here on the horse racing radio network part of Virginia thoroughbred week presented by the Virginia equine alliance. I'm Bobby Newman along with James Scully, and this is your hour H-R-R-N nation to call in and talk about whatever you'd like. In the world of thoroughbred racing, the number to get in is 888-966-4776, triple 8-966-HR-R-N. James, we had a couple of important 50-point Derby qualifiers last weekend in the San Felipe and the Tampa Bay Derby. And the final 50-pointer takes place this Saturday at Colonial, the Virginia Derby.

1:10I think we don't have, we're having issues with James, alright, so we're waiting for him to reconnect. Once again, number to get in, 888-966-4776, are I going back at what we saw last weekend? We saw the other Bob Baffert trainee, Potente, get up and get the win in the San Felipe, beat Robusta, 8-1, over 67-1, respectively, the favorite Baffert trainee, Brandt. A lot of us thought was overbet going into that race. He was four to five, weren't sure if he really wanted to go two turns, and at least it didn't look like it last weekend. Went to the lead, got a little tired against some real good ones in the breeder's cup, Juvenile last fall, first start of 20-26, went to the lead, pressed all the way by second choice, so happy they didn't do each other, any favors in the San Felipe, and when they got to the top of the stretch, Brandt was done and so happy he didn't have a whole lot left, although he did hang on for third, and Potente was able to surge forward in the final 40 yards or

2:10so, and Nail Longshot, Robusta, who for a long time looked like he was going to get the win at 67-1, they covered the mile in a 16th, in 142-4, meanwhile closer to home for me at Tampa Bay Downs, I was able to go to the Tampa Bay Derby, the three-way driving finish between Cannelletto, further ado, and the Puma, and it was the Puma, a maiden going into the race, who was maiden no more, despite being four or five paths wide, and really not having the greatest of trips, back both the Puma and Cannelletto did not have very good trips in the Tampa Bay Derby. Cannelletto couldn't overcome it, the Puma did, he swept up and by the two favorites, Cannelletto, and further ado, to get up and win by just over a half a length, he covered the mile in a 16th, in 143, in one, both Potente and Cannelletto now have enough points we think to get to the Kentucky Derby, they each earned 50 points for their respective wins

3:11last weekend. Now I say we think every year so far that Churchill Downs has had this Derby points system, 50 points has been enough to guarantee a spot the first Saturday in May. Now every year it's going up and up, and last year 50 was the minimum you needed to guarantee you a spot in the Derby, so if you want to go with that trend, I don't know, I don't know which way you want to look at it. Do we just assume that if you have 50 points you're getting in, or 50 points you've got about a 90% chance of getting in. Either way, I don't know what Potente is going to do, if he's in line to maybe try the San Anita Derby next, but the connections of the Puma have said that he's going to run again before the Kentucky Derby, they think it's too much time to just run in the Tampa Bay Derby and then the Kentucky Derby, so they're looking at either the blue grass at Keyland or perhaps the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct for a next stop for the Puma.

4:15He looked really good in getting by further doing Cannot Leto. I've said this and I mentioned it on the previous show. This Derby to me so far looks very, very wide open. I'd love for to hear the opinions of our callers and am I right on this or am I missing something that's just a standout in the spot. Last year, I mean journalism was so good going into the Derby. He was a very logical favorite and the the folks that didn't like journalism, a lot of them like sovereignty. He really didn't hear huge opinions for anyone else. It was kind of journalism or sovereignty and then other ones that people talked about and as it turned out, both of those horses ran very well in the Derby. This year, even if you like some of the horses that look like they're the favorites, Paladin is the favorite in Derby pool number five. He doesn't look so much better than some of the others, James, that he, you know, that there to be ignored to me. It looks like there are 12 or

5:1914 of them that at this point have a chance to win the Kentucky Derby. Yeah, and I think the numbers reflect that good evening, Bobby, where, you know, I think there's been one fast prep this year. I think commandment and cheap ball will be ran fast and the found the youth, but Paladin and most of the other prep winners this year, including the Puma last weekend have been a little underwhelming from a big standpoint. Regardless of what metric you're using, I use a percent speed, but if you use buyer or the photograph or the rags, they just, nobody's really separated themselves. And it's certainly in past years, I think journalism had a little bit of a feel where he had run some really triple digit fast races and sovereignty came back with a fast race in the found the youth. So, you know, we're waiting to see. As far as the points go, I do believe that, you know, these, these horses that, you know, hope to get in with the, you know, around 50 points,

6:20they just don't want newcomers coming along. They want people that, they want horses that are already on the leaderboard finishing first or second in these final preps. Let's get out to the phones. Tom in St. Louis, you're on the brisnet.com colon show. Hey guys, how are you? What's going on, Tom? So Bobby, I got to ask you this question. What do you feel have more, what would you have more confidence in? Hitting this off the facts of that at Turfway? Option two, whatever, whatever option two is, that's what I like. Hannah, the 17th tea at Sawgrass this week and play in the chair. I know you're a golfer. And I just, you know, to me, they both are impossible to me. Well, first of all, I played the court. I've played TPC Sawgrass twice in my life. And I hit the green both times. It's not a very long hole. It's only about 130 yards. And I parted both times. So that's not even a, and I will play Sawgrass again. And you, it doesn't matter if it was a 50

7:20million dollar carryover with a mandatory payout, I would not bet the octa-fecta. I read that. I read that article three times because I thought it was like a pick eight, not in the same race. I thought it was like a whole card, which a Turfway is just as hard to pick. I just, that just totally just blew my mind. Well, don't, don't forget they used to have. And I, I don't know if it was Golden Gate or Bay Meadows that started this, but remember the place pick all that they had in California for a while or yet, you had to pick a horse that was either first or second in all, whatever it was, nine races. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Russell Bay, Russell Bay single in all your tickets. And you know, you'd have a pretty good shot at it. So yeah, but that's not going to pay very much. Well, no, but hey, hey, you hit it on a bet like that. It's like hitting it. I guess it's like, it's like paring sawgrass, buddy. You parted, move along. That's wonderful. But I agree with you guys. You made a point that I had in my note

8:20to talk about today. In years past and I, I admit, I was all over sovereignty last year. I was calling this show, talking the year before about fiercest in January, sovereignty at the end of January, all of that. I couldn't tell you right now on the, you know, 12th of March. I couldn't tell you four horses that I would bet to say, hey, the field, the winter is going to be one of these four. I think it's very wide open. I think like, like James said, we've only had one real, what I would call impressive prep. I think it's going to be one by a horse at a price this year. I think it's going to be a horse that isn't going to go to the lead and just be outstanding. I think it's going to be kind of one of these plot along horses that, you know, very consistent and throw up those, you know, 25 second quarters and, you know, come down to the whole thing and be where it's at. I just, you know, I know there's a lot of last week. I said there was a lot of good

9:24horses in this that I didn't think there were two weeks before. I think there's just a lot of parity and I don't think there's anybody that's a real, you know, stand out. That's kind of just how I see this thing. You know, and I think these traps have been also different at so many different racetracks that it's very difficult to be, you know, you can't say, oh my goodness, I think you'd say the Gulf Stream that's got the best crop of three year olds there, you know, compared to the crop, I don't go on in the crop, it's fairgrounds in the California crop, but I just don't think right now there's a wide open horse and I'm not a pallet and fan. And a friend of mine was telling me he really likes pallet and I can't tell you why I don't like that horse. I just don't. It's just an I chart thing and I agree with you guys on that and I don't know. And if I just kind of wanted to get your thoughts and I guess if I could, I'll throw out kind of an upset special this week because I think in the derby prep this week, you know, people look at

10:26Utah and I think that horse can say, hey, look, I don't think that horse is a real derby horse. You know, there's some other horses in here, but I think incredible is going to have a real good rebound effect. Something went wrong and that holy bullet went drastically wrong. Maybe it was just like, you know, like I said about the McTeeke horse black out time, you know, just coming off that rest and needed a race, a layoff and needed a race. But this horse has been working like a monster down at Palm Meadows. And you know, if I get anywhere near that tend to one that's on the morning line, I'm going to be very, very happy with that. I don't know. Just kind of, you know, just kind of my thoughts. I know Bobby, you talk about it tomorrow night. I'm sure James, you're going to give it out later in the day, but it just seems in these races of these perhaps I'm catching myself not really drifting toward the favorite and very few of them. And it just tells me it's a wide open thing. And I think you're going to have a horse this year. It's going to pay big, big, big dollars. And you know, Bobby, that'll just make that octave effect on derby day and the 12th rate on the 2nd of a church. He'll just pay astronomical

11:29numbers. And who knows if anybody will have it. So I don't know, just my two cents. Well, I appreciate the call, Tom. And I can only guarantee you one thing. I know one person who will not have the octave effect on derby day and you're listening to him right now. James, Tom likes incredible to rebound with a much better effort in the Virginia Derby. What do you think about this race Saturday? Yeah, I think it's a, I think it's pretty interesting. I mean, we'll see. You know, I've heard backwards comments and he's convinced that butane is like a two turn route like type derby horse. But we'll see. I mean, his his comeback in the Southwest was a little underwhelming and it's just it seems like it didn't know it didn't know favor straw in the rail in there. One thing you guys were talking about, Tom was talking about as well. But one thing I see when I look at the complexion of this year's Kentucky Derby contenders is I, I mean, and we have PPs out at brisnet.com for this weekend's Kentucky Derby future wager pull five

12:34is not a lot of speed. I don't see a lot of speed and especially the top point leaders. There's some horses like chip poncho who still has a qualify who could add some pace to the mix. There's a cold out there. Reagan's honor who's going to the bluegrass and we'll see if he could run first or second, but he looks like he showed real high speed last time. But one thing we've seen in recent years is a real fast pace up front that sets it up for late runners. We've had a lot of deep closers when the derby and especially the last five or six years and it'll be interesting to see if we get how much speed materializes in the weeks to come. Number to get in eight eight eight nine six six four seven seven six kind of goes with what I'm thinking going into this year's derby every year when I handicap the derby and I'm not I don't profess to be any better at handicapping the derby than anyone else. But I look for horses that I think can improve and run better than they've been running in the derby. I think the

13:35derby winner very rarely wins the race while regressing off his most recent start. So and this year may be more so than anything because I think you're going to have a lot of horses that figure wise look about the same and you mentioned it there James pace wise it looks like a lot of them are kind of the same. I mean this more more than most years might be one of those things where you know you pay attention to which horses when they get to Churchill downs really sound like they're purking up you know in the mornings which ones seem like they really like it there and then they're going to have to have a lot of luck you know it's a 20 horse field and you know they they don't always get let's face it there there's always a lot some bad trips in the field and in a race where it seems like they all have the kind of same same type of pace analysis and there isn't one or two that stick out about the above the rest speed figure wise you know there's going to be a lot of luck involved but I think I may pay more attention this year to who kind of looks better in the morning

14:37since arriving to Churchill than maybe they did before they got there. Yeah that's certainly a fair point I think a Derby winner in recent years it sort of may fit that profile for the people who saw him on track with beige now he was a beautiful look at chess not to begin with but I thought he certainly took a like in the Churchill in the days and you know a week or a week and a half he was on the grounds leading up to it and yeah I think you know that's that's a good point in a year like this and thankfully we now you know can can pay attention to these things so easily whether it's you and your colleagues for what you do at Churchill and and those work shows you have in the morning of course Jude and I'll be back there for our Derby countdown shows on Tuesday Wednesday Thursday morning of Derby Week but it's very easy to find out which horses are doing well which horses maybe are not doing as well when they arrived at Churchill I'm just may pay attention to it

15:39a little bit closer this year than in years past just because I I'm looking for some sort of reason to fall in love with one of these three-year-olds I like a few of the three-year-olds right now I don't love any of the three-year-olds I will say this James as we get ready to go to our first break when I'm looking at the opening odds for Derby pool number five the the one that sticks out is most interesting to me is Renegade who's 20 to one morning line I was very impressed from what I saw from him in the Sam Davis I don't know where he's supposed to show up next but he kind of looks like a horse that a mile and a quarter will be were straight up his alley he looks like he's getting better and better and he's obviously kept some pretty good company he loses to Paladin who a lot of people think is the favorite going into the race and I certainly like Paladin as well but at the price Renegade is the one that intrigues me 20 to one on the line yeah and his come back racing that Davis was fast he got a 97 number on the brisket speed but we're really caught my eye

16:44he got a 112ly pace rating it looks like he'll relish the added ground I would think the blue grass is the most likely target even though a butcher has it named a race and he was 12 to one midweek this week at the Caesar sportsbook in Las Vegas and like you said they pegged him 20 to one and there could be a bunch of horses take there could be at least a handful of horses 34 maybe five take more money than this weekend so you could get its value in a sense on Renegade where if you're in Vegas you're taking 12 to one today all right let's take a break when we come back phone lines are open give us a call 888 966 4776 brisnet.com call and show part of Virginia thoroughbred week presented by the Virginia equine alliance here on HRRN you're listening to the brisnet.com call and show on HRRN the phone lines are open call now 888 966 HRRN that's 888 966 4776 do you want unlimited access to handicapping without exorbitant prices the brisnet.com has you

17:49covered with a variety of plans for past performances pedigree and raw data brisnet.com performance plan covers unlimited pdf past performances for just $85 per month and is available at brisnet.com slash plans American produce records online puts the pedigrees of nearly one million dams and more than two million falls at your fingertips plus sire stats for only $275 per year and is available at brisnet.com slash a pr the brisnet.com data plan offers unlimited access to race day data files perfect for handicappers with their own database for to plug into other people's programs the data plan is $125 per month visit brisnet.com for all this information and more and discover why brisnet is the handicappers edge you're listening to virginia thoroughbred week presented by the virginia equine alliance on HRRN nothing compares to a horse they inspire

18:54greatness command respect because virginia's horse industry isn't just racing and farming it's built on the skills labors and passions of dedicated people working in every industry throughout our state horses fuel the economy create jobs support thousands of families and even make dreams come true virginia's economy wins with horses find out more at virginiahorse racing.com race to twins fires where you can unlock a $25 risk free bet just use the code HRRN25 when you sign up and if your first bet does it win twins fires will refund your account up to $25 wagering on the app is fast with free pass performances insider picks and power plays every day you wager twins fires download that today to earn your $25 risk free bet boy we're prohibited for terms and conditions visit twins fires.com must be 18 or older 21 and older we're applicable for help with the gambling problem called 1-800-Gamler. Hi this is Kurt Becker join me each week on the equine forum as I take you on a stroll through

19:56racing history presented by keenlin this week I look back at the racing career of bold Irishman listen live on the equine forum every Saturday morning on Sirius 162 or xm 207 or visit our website at orsracingradio.net to access the archives and enjoy past editions it's a stroll through racing history with me Kurt Becker presented by keenlin only here on HRRN this is the brisnet.com call in show the phone lines are open call now 888-966-HRRN that's 888-966-4776 welcome back brisnet.com call and show here on the horse racing radio network part of Virginia sterile bridge week presented by the Virginia equine alliance Bobby Newman Bob James Sully rather number to get in 888-966-4776 let's get out to the phones Charles and Mrs. Cippy

20:57welcome back my friend how you doing Bobby what's going on buddy it's all good baby I'm living the American dream buddy you know I'm just uh living the American dream what uh what is your what is your wife got planned for your birthday it's only about a week and a half away pal we are going uh well you know she knows I love to play poker she knows I love to to bet the horses and she knows I love to gamble so she we're going to take our granddaughter and her are going to ocean springs I'm going to the bow ravage and but lucky and play cards and bed horses and shoot dice so uh I'll I'll get my field up with three days is if the Lord let's me see my 76 birthday so wait a minute you're you're birthday present from your wife is that she's going to drop you off at a casino while she goes elsewhere well she yeah yeah yeah one thing about

22:03uh me Bobby a gambler should never marry another gambler you need to marry a non gambler that's you know like an alcoholic does not need to marry another alcoholic okay but that's just my story in life you know I am one of those unusual people in the world Bobby I am if you if you know you've met me James has never met me but I am half a breath 25 percent Jew and 25 percent myth redneck and my great grandfather sat on the boat dock in Beirut Syria in 1900 and with a suitcase in his wife at the age of 37 and came to this country he lived in New Orleans for four years so he got a citizenship and he found a way to get the Greenville Mississippi I don't know how he made his way to Greenville Mississippi but we've been here ever since and I have lived the

23:07American dream and there is no country in this world better than this country right here guys and I've been to a bunch of them and I wouldn't trade anything in this country for any place else but I love my heart racing but hey it's wonderful when your wife takes you to a drop you off at a you know but she's not going to put me in my hand Bobby they're well you know as long as he drops me I'll Bobby happy so I'll be thinking about you in your life on the 21st and you know I love that renegade and James has mentioned that other horse I don't know if you've seen that Regan's hope run I don't know if the horse can get a mile in a quarter but that horse is some kind of fast some kind of fast and if they meet in the blitzgrass I know the two horses I'm having my

24:10exacta baby and I am just like y'all I have uh this race is this exactly durable will be wide open it'll just be wide open and I'm waiting to hear James Cully tell us what he likes but you know he's been real quiet the last few weeks Bobby well he hasn't been real quiet I was I was told he gave out British Isles to win the big cap last week you're damn straight exos some two weeks ago British Isles last week two for two and both horses uh paid at least $15 so uh James I didn't say you didn't pick any winners I just said you've been real quiet as you know that reminds me of a horse and that was one nostril short of the triple crown is that 98 James real quiet 98 yeah 98 and real quiet and freehouse and that other horse was 97 wasn't it silver

25:1697 captain bodge if freehouse yeah man yeah yeah yeah yeah man Charles I don't I don't know I don't know if you remember this but uh in that race where real quiet and where victory gallop beat real quiet on in the Belmont uh there was bumping at the end and the stewards said that they were happy that the photo came down with real with victory gallop winning because if real quieted one they were going to have to disqualify him from winning that race and the triple crown wow wow I don't know but I also had a million dollar bonus um to the win the horse if you won the triple crown and Tom Durkin said at the wire they say uh what a photo is worth a thousand words but this photo could be worth one million dollars something like that so uh yeah I was at Belmont that day and uh goose bumps Charles that was one of the most thoroughly stretched drives I've seen in person

26:17it was it was a classic it was a classic guy and uh and you know we've been blessed that it's seen a lot of good horse races guys and I hope we keep it up and uh just want to let bobe y'all know uh I enjoy the show we don't give me one more favor I don't text and I don't email and I don't I don't know uh Anthony's to Bill's phone number well we all he if y'all are in contact with him we y'all please tell him I said hello and then uh I miss him and I think about him often and I promise you Charles the next time I contact him I will mention that you know absolutely and I hope this suspension doesn't go very I think uh you know what has he been suspended now for seven years six years you know maybe you know whatever it is I hope somebody you know what a what a class act to be a war so just tell him that guys and uh if y'all are at the boar of odds next week

27:21I'll see y'all there appreciate the call Charles best of luck uh my friend have a good week this sir great call Charles you know speaking of Charles James and by the way a phone phone lines are open now if you'd like to give us a call eight eight eight nine six six four seven seven six whenever I think of Charles I of course think of oak lawn because uh that's where I met him and he loves going to oak lawn during the meet we saw a race uh in the azary last weekend that a lot of us thought was probably a foregone conclusion in nitrogen winning the race and even when the track came up sloppy and sealed she had run on what tracks in the past and it looked like she was in a good spot in the azary and just come up completely empty down the lane not only losing to majesticoops but uh overtaken for second by regaled what do you think of uh what do you make of both majesticoops winning and nitrogen losing yeah I uh with nitrogen losing I was a little bit concerned that her bio-coa number came back uh lower than she had gotten since she switched the

28:24dirt she'd earned triple-digit numbers last year and now they have a spinster and breeders cup diss staff so I was a little concerned and it's a it's a troubling pattern with that third in this area you know they can always go back to turf with her so they got options for Cassie does but um you know this season has not gotten off the start the way the start they they envisioned and you know we saw this last year with their pdn and she came back at oak one and she did win her first two races but then didn't run well at Churchill on oak stay so um I don't know I think they're gonna freshen her up uh they know she runs well at Saratoga in the summer so it'll be interesting to see what Cassie does off the azary effort all right uh we're gonna take a break if you're on the phone hold on we'll get through you right after this this is the brisnet dot com call and show part of virginia thorough red week presented by the virginia equine alliance on h-r-r-n you're listening to the brisnet dot com call and show on h-r-r-n the phone lines are open call

29:28now eight eight nine six six h-r-r-n that's eight eight eight nine six six four seven seven six do you want unlimited access to handicapping without exorbitant prices the brisnet dot com has you covered with a variety of plans for past performances pedigree and raw data brisnet dot com performance plan covers unlimited pdf past performances for just eighty five dollars per month and is available at brisnet dot com slash plans american produce records online puts the pedigrees of nearly one million dams and more than two million falls at your fingertips plus sire stats for only two hundred seventy five dollars per year and is available at brisnet dot com slash a pr the brisnet dot com data plan offers unlimited access to raise day data files perfect for handicappers with their own database for to plug into other people's programs the data plan is one hundred twenty five dollars per month visit brisnet dot com for all this information and more

30:29and discover why brisnet is the handicapers edge race to twin spires where you can unlock a twenty five dollar risk free bet just use the code h-r-r-n twenty five when you sign up and if your first bet doesn't win twin spires will refund your account up to twenty five dollars wagering on the app is fast with free past performances insider picks and power plays every day you wager twin spires download the app today to earn your twenty five dollar risk free bet boy we're pivoted for turns to get issues visit twin spires dot com must be eighteen or older twenty one and older breathable for help with the gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler hi this is Kurt backer join me each week on the equine forum as i take you on a stroll through racing history presented by keenlin this week i look back at the racing career of bold Irishman listen live on the equine forum every Saturday morning on serious one sixty two or xm two oh seven or visit our website and horse racing radio dot net to access the archives and enjoy past editions it's a stroll through racing history with me Kurt backer presented by keenlin

31:33only here on h-r-r-n this is the brisnet dot com call in show the phone lines are open call now eight eight nine six six h-r-r-n that's eight eight nine six six four seven seven six welcome back brisnet dot com call and show here on the horse racing radio network part of Virginia thoroughbred week all week long presented by the virginia equine alliance bobby newman james scully let's get back out to the phones steve in new york you're on the brisnet dot com call and show dot bells as a grown what are you doing buddy a much and a much watching the players championship here if i can uh get one of these guys in the winter circle but other than that i was calling to see uh first any updates on my boy journalism i haven't heard anything really and now he supposedly looked good and uh the last time he he made an appearance i heard so

32:33and then uh be on the derby so i heard you saying it looks wide open i don't know if that's a case no i haven't looked at any speed figures yet or anything like that i just started looking at the replays of uh the first few races of the year and i think a couple things jump out of me one i think paladin i don't think i'm you know this is any breaking news but i think that horse is the real deal i think if i had to choose right now i think commandment you know it's between him and and commandment who i think are the two best but that horse paladin man i first of all the remson looks really good and then that last race i think maybe people think chip honcho is just not a good horse i don't know if that's case that horse is pretty loose and to run that horse down when he was like i said he's pretty loose and i think he's probably a decent horse i think that was more impressive than probably than probably people think so i think it's between him i like uh that other black oxhors two that ran last week off the layoff i think that horse is

33:38pretty decent i actually think there's a separation i think it's commandment paladin maybe that oxhors and then it you drop off you know and i do like a little bit what i saw from patente last week but i need to see more from him but i i don't think this is that wide open i think there's basically maybe there's not one standout but i think there's like two or three that can win it and then there's a you drop off if that is my point what what would you guess at this point right now the horse who will be favored in the derby what his odds will be i think if this horse paladin continues on like as i again i think that last race is better than it probably appeared because i think people maybe just this revolving out chip poncho's not that good he didn't beat anybody in the race if he does what i think he's gonna do next couple of races i think he'll be i think he'll get down to like two to one to be honest i can't i can't see it i mean if he he's only he's gonna run one more time in the blue grass and

34:39he's gonna face a good field but if he won the blue grass by four lengths let's say which is a huge win you still think he's that low i mean that's a really big favorite two to one in a twenty horse field well when you if he wins the blue grass going away and then you really look at his resume and then you look at the breeding i think he's out of gun runner and you know the connections and everything else even a cat brown is gonna get bet who writes and Tyler Tyler probably won't take that much labor well Tyler was disreplaced pratt pratt could be back on him oh so it'll be pratt it'll be Chad it'll be a huge win in the blue grass undefeated or did he lose a race i don't recall i know he won the remission yeah he's undefeated he's three for three he won his first race via dq undefeated i mean if he if he dabbles in the blue grass i can definitely see if all the only way is if the commandment turns around and wins the Florida Derby then like i said then there's competition so maybe five to two but i think that horse i really think it's a real deal i don't know

35:43what do you guys think well i think he's the real deal as well and i think he also not only track down a lonely leader in chip honcho the other uh in in the risen star but it was also kind of a speed favoring track all day that day and he was able to close down the outside and get the win i thought it was a better effort than what the the figures made it sound but i i can't see two to one i can't see anyone being i mean i i'd be kind of almost shocked if somebody was less than seven to two favoritism in the Derby i think if if you love a horse and whether it's uh paladin or somebody else Steve um i think you're gonna get a much bigger price than you think on him even if he wins the blue grass by a few lengths i'm a little bit worried that he's a bit of a grinder um you know that's my one concern you know and hey journalism's a bit of a grinder and you know i think sovereignty has that a bit that has a better has has a better turn of foot in a sense and that really worked his advantage in the Derby um but you know he also has tactical ability so you know he's he's capable

36:49put himself in the right position uh turning for home to uh go and get the money um the the the the thing with commandment is is that cheap wallaby who ran second by head he's got big numbers and both his starts he's got a lot going for him too and that those those two horses and nearly his little bit forgotten since he hasn't run since the holy bull all three of those horses are going to the forward of Derby so they'll sort that out in um you know a goal stream in two weeks you really like this horse cheap wallaby so many people like this horse i can't get on this i'm a little bit concerned because he's come along late for mod but if you look i look at his figures and he's got a better pattern or profile to me than commandment does now i like commandment what what i like about commandment is that he's like shown this ability you know to uh you know make his own trip and you know has shown agility and and this push button it push button acceleration that can be really valuable in the Derby uh but you know cheap wallaby he's going to have to earn

37:53it in the Florida Derby and i just think that race will be huge because it's a mound and eighth and it's a long stretch of goal stream and hopefully the you know um those horses i think the winner of that race can make we'll make a serious case for favoritism yeah i don't this guy just don't lack a foundation i could just so see a situation where winner lose the Florida Derby let's say he wins it mod takes into Kentucky and then he scratches because at the end day mod you know he's he's gonna he's a conservative guy so i can't really see him can you really see bill mod pushing this horse maiden found to use Florida Derby Kentucky Derby well he's on he's on record doing it i mean Steve he's committed to to that path uh you know i i i think that he that's just the era right now um that we're in i mean you know sovereign race more and as uh you know obviously race the two but he was also coming off a huge layoff uh going into the found the youth that you know i i'm not confident in that mod um you know i i'm a little bit worried because mod's so old school

39:00i think he's worried about it but but based on numbers and what i've seen on track i'm you know i like hit the horse so to me he's got a real chance to win the Derby Chief Walding now he's gonna take a lot of money if he if he gets into that race and that'll be huge bet against because i for me i just can't do i think i know mage didn't have any foundation when he won right but i can't bet those horses no two-year-old foundation i can't do it not in the Derby all right Steve appreciate the call buddy oh by the way uh want to let you know journalism has worked three times yeah since they brought him back three furlongs four furlongs and five furlongs nothing flashy yet but he's on a he's on a pace that he works on sundays so look for another work for him uh this sunday morning Steve and i saw where mccarty said he wants a prep before the met mile on bill monday so he might get him ready to run boat you know some point here in the coming months maybe we could see him in that Churchill downstakes as well yeah it's definitely a potential possibility i think he would rush to cut back to seven furlong

40:01south of the layoff and that that could be a terrific field all right Steve appreciate it best of luck this weekend if you play my man number to get in eight eight eight nine six six four seven seven six while we have a second uh what kind of specials do we have going on this weekend at brisnet and twin spires james yeah check out brisnet.com for your handicapping products our past performance is uh you know uh analysis tip sheets we have great pedigree information much more our american produce records are great for handicapping these two-year-old and uh turf races coming up this spring and summer so brisnet.com it's your handicapper's edge at twinsfires.com and offers we've got a betback promotion of colonial downs as Saturday races six through nine uh we also have a twenty five hundred dollar win lot ladder every sunday at o'quam or we'll just we're going to give away money if you're right and cash start number of when tickets on the program

41:03so uh and many more offers for bear for uh lots of tracks so check out our offers page and make sure you opt in and then on the tournaments friends we got a bunch of uh handicapping events going on this weekend for all different sized bank rolls we have got a uh uh uh uh a event this weekend on the Virginia Derby card and we'll be giving away some seats to the kdbc our our big weekend events are all awarding seats to the kdbc and this would be a weekend to bit like to possibly jump in because a lot of serious players are out in vegas at this in hc and um you know might be an opportunity to qualify for some great events that we have at twinsfires where are you looking this weekend for your best bet yeah i'm going to the uh Virginia Derby won't be as high as my last two selections but i hope he trips up a little bit i like number six lock stock and pharo i like this debut at fair where you just really fell out of the didn't break well got up to win but

42:03man he really took a big step forward for Tommy jurory on february seven he was under uh hammer hold on the back stretch you know morale is used to speed the game position for the far outside and a two turn mile race and he got to the stretch and he just blew the field away and i thought he looked raw um you know with just room for improvement and i just think he's a really up and coming guilty the last two winners bobby idiomatic broker made netterfway wanted entry level allowance and then uh to another allowance on route to becoming champion older female uh and then last year chunk of gold went on and won the red west virginia derby and ramwell and other stakes so we've seen some really good dirt horses come out of turfway the last two years and i think this lock stock and pharo could be the goods for Tommy jury i'm playing them in the virginia derby number six all right i'm going to give you a prediction if that horse wins the virginia derby

43:03i don't know who these people are that own lock stock and pharo let it ride equine holdings three limited uh it looks like uh they only paid fifty thousand dollars for them uh back as a yearling in twenty twenty four my guess is the way that things are in horse racing right now if lock stock and pharo wins the virginia derby he will at least be partly if not completely sold before he runs in the Kentucky derby and whether that's a micropoly or that's uh something like wahtenon racing or you know matacat so too many you know i i i'm not a big fan of this uh because it it you know i yes these people are putting up their money and uh people are willing to sell then you know it's certainly theirs um you know when you see uh somebody like mode onigle wearing rappoli silks when he's been a donigle horse his entire life um win the belmonton and all they

44:05show on tv is the guy that's owned part of this horse for the last eight days or whatever it was something like that it's goofy but this looks like a horse that if he wins this virginia derby he will at least be partly if not completely sold before he runs in the Kentucky derby and whoever let it ride equine holdings is will take home a big bag of cash yeah i would think you know this will be his final prep i mean that this race is going to the winner of this race is going to look to trend up to the derby so i would think they would definitely will retain uh a part an ownership interest like other horses we've seen in the past uh but yeah there's no doubt about it uh these horses get to the derby and all of a sudden they've got St. Elias and a lot of different like co-owners that you didn't remember from early on when they were running in allowances i mean the flight line didn't have all those owners when he started his

45:06career right wasn't it just a it was just a ronus brothers right maybe i wasn't just a ronus racing and then when he ran in the bridge suddenly there are six different owners listed and fly and listen i think the people uh are making the right decision in selling this they they'd be ridiculous to turn down the amount of money that they're offered to basically for a percentage of their horse and then sometimes it's just leasing the horse didn't we see this with senior buscador when he ran out in uh made honor in Saudi Arabia or whatever it was that he won wasn't he uh didn't uh didn't i didn't get him a p did it with uh rattle and roll yeah these these trend yeah you're absolutely right you they'll lease them out for two race uh overseas venture um just have a name name your program and and your silks on the white a barrio the white a barrio people got into white a barrio after he initially had success and then they got out of them before he came back you know this year and finished second in the Pegasus World Cup so yeah um definitely

46:11seen it a lot of times all right let's take our final break and we come back phone lines are open give us a call eight eight eight nine six six four seven seven six brisnet dot com call and show part of virginia thoroughbred week presented by the virginia equine alliance on h-r-r-n you're listening to the brisnet dot com call and show on h-r-r-n the phone lines are open call now eight eight nine six six h-r-r-n that's eight eight nine six six four seven seven six do you want unlimited access to handicapping without exorbitant prices the brisnet dot com has you covered with a variety of plans for past performances pedigree and raw data brisnet dot com performance plan covers unlimited pdf past performances for just eighty five dollars per month and is available at brisnet dot com slash plans american produce records online puts the pedigrees of nearly one million dams and more than two million falls at your fingertips plus sire

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48:20race the twins fires where you can unlock a twenty five dollar risk free bet just use the code h-r-r-n twenty five when you sign up and if your first bet does it win twin spires will refund your account up to twenty five dollars wagering on the app is fast with free pass performances insider picks and power plays every day you wager twin spires download the app today to earn your twenty five dollar risk free bet boy we're prohibited for terms of conditions visit twin spires dot com must be eighteen or older twenty one and older breathable for help with a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler hey this is Mike penna join me every friday at five p.m. eastern for the show trainers listen to trainer talk presented by phasic tipton from all of famous to up and comers you'll get to know the men and women who make this work go up close and personally listen on serious one sixty two x m two oh seven or stream the show live on our website at horse racing radio dot net my guess this week is Lisa Lewis and if you miss it or want to listen again download the podcast at horse racing radio dot net or your favorite podcast platform this is the brisnet dot com call in show the phone lines

49:25are open call now eight eight nine six six eight r r n that's eight eight nine six six four seven seven six welcome back final segment on tonight's edition of the brisnet dot com call and show number to get in eight eight eight nine six six four seven seven six our virginia thoroughbred week all week long presented by the virginia equine alliance bobby newman jane scully taking you to the top of the hour all right let me get your impressions on what we saw with the two thorough two three year old preps last weekend james first the sand to leap a at san anita and then the Tampa Bay Derby as well hey i thought that potente it got something going for him in a sense you know now he's two for two this said you know didn't make his debut until eight jane were at six for long it's got up to one uh to got up to win and he showed some courage uh running down robusta now the fact that robusta

50:28ran the race that he did causing a question of quality that entire race the odds on favorite brand was done by the midway point of the far turn and two to one second choice so happy was pretty much finished by the top of the stretch but you know the race didn't come back real slow so you know given the state of the three-year-olds you know i guess you can look at it glass half wool but obviously want to see both potente and robusta you know come back and prove it next time in their final prep as far as the puma i think switching to late running tactics is really it was really benefited him he showed speed in his debut and raced up close in the same f Davis but they took him back early he was the last early on the first turn he was never far back but he was still last and i thought he made multiple runs he made a good run on the far turn and then he really had to go get the leaders in the stretch and um i might the big concern is just the how fast was the race

51:28i mean i know they got an afternoon shower before the race before it um and it slowed down the main track some but that that race was nearly two seconds flat fat slower excuse me than disruptor who won the challenge or earlier and um you know so well we'll see and another thing was a little bit of concern to me was that like the lors is right behind behind them we're all lumped together further do he ran okay for second canaledo didn't have like you know he needed that experience everything went his way in the debut and he ran okay for third all those horses are in the mix for the derby still or the least for canaledo for the preteness but they're gonna have to step it up keep stepping it up because that race basically has all the sheets and uh some other numbers as well just didn't come back very fast bobby do you think the puma is now a late running horse or his post position kind of forced them into trying those tactics i think he's uh i you know whether

52:29you're saying a mid pack stalker or more out the back i do think he's gonna be dedicated to off the pace type i think with the mage they thought he might he got he started to have a trouble getting out of the game that really compromised him in the derby but then it worked his favor the way the rest race set up but i i don't think they want to be back in 18 19th or 20th and he like that i think they'd rather be like you know uh 12th you know or something in the early stages and but he's gonna be an off the pace runner and he certainly he needed that uh you know he wasn't gonna win the sam davis he had a trouble trip but there was no way he might have gotten up for second but uh off of that race i was worried where he'd be going and that was a real confidence boost and he's eligible to keep improving and i'm a big fan of delgado uh he's a good trainer yeah it's uh i mean i i i know steve in new york uh thinks there are horses that stand out and listen i'm a paladin fan i i agree with him i think paladins win in the risen star was much better

53:34than it looks on paper i think he ran against the bias and tracked down a lonely leader that day and they were well clear of everyone else uh day where nobody was really closing i think there was one other horse on the main track that came from off the pace and it was a it was a hit show who was a real good horse obviously uh yeah but but otherwise everything was was speed and rail that day and paladin uh was completely against that and way out in the center of the track actually and closing in yeah he does look like a grinder to me but he also looks like a horse that doesn't give up now whether he's good enough to win the Kentucky Derby that's another question but he's i i haven't seen anyone that clearly looks better than paladin so far it's not that he's necessarily heading shoulders above everyone else i think he's at least as good as everyone else we've seen and i thought the and that the horse that he's been closest with most of the time renegade looked great when they when he didn't run against paladin yeah absolutely and i i'll say this yearly owned who is definitely more of a dead cause i mean they got completely different run

54:38styles in a sense paladin is yearly owned but his come back in uh in the risen star he was all out to win that racing come back real fast so he just took a big step forward in the bluegrass and paladin is certainly a candidate to do that and we'll be talking i'll be talking more favorably about him if he does do that in a couple weeks of keenland let's get out to the phones brion in south florida you're on the brisnet dot com colon show good evening guys i hope you're doing well apologies i haven't listened earlier but uh i just wanted to give a shout out to the people at uh Churchill downs uh twin spires and anyone else um involved um you guys have this new octave effect uh uh horse racing back uh and uh you know it's a 22% uh takeout back and uh i'm going to say this is nice as possible um i i hope everyone involved in that decision uh depth on a lego this weekend and uh with that uh have a good weekend guys thank you bris brion

55:43still there yeah i i'm here brion do you think that there's any chance that the people who came up with this wager or agreed upon this wager were not drunk at the time that this meeting took place uh well from from uh from the intelligence i gathered uh this this has been uh in preparation for over five months or so so uh i i think something's uh wrong with with people to think that this is a good idea well you and i are in the same boat and we appreciate the call brion uh i'm going to say this and james doesn't need to uh meant talk about this because he obviously uh works for that company everything that company does turns to gold i so i i think this is the longest shot of the things they've come up with that turn to go the will turn to gold but it seems like everything that Churchill does makes lots and lots of money so even though it doesn't sound like

56:45you brion are going to be contributing to the pools of the turfway octa-fecta and possibly the derby day octa-fecta and i know that i will not be contributing there are obviously people out there who will be contributing to this and i think all we can say is best of luck and there you go james i i don't think we're gonna hold you accountable at any point for your best octa-fecta selection uh of the week although that would be uh intriguing when you know once we start arguing about who you like sixth and seventh in a race all right uh um well i'll tell you are you gonna be playing clodium this weekend absolutely i'm uh i i i'm gonna play something tomorrow and i'm gonna play on saturday as well all right yeah it looks like that forecast can be a lot better tomorrow back in the 60s that that was crazy today they got snow late in the program it was snowing at aqueduct two we covered

57:48aqueduct uh on our previous show show and uh it was raining and sleeting and blowing sideways and uh did not look like a fun time to be out there for the finale at aqueduct no no uh but it it is going to be better at clodium and listen i was there last year for the for the inaugural like uh rebranding and it was a derby prep it was real popular they had a big crowd out there and hopefully the weather's good because uh i thought they got a good betting race uh big field and uh it's it's good to see i hope i ran her thesis okay because he's got a bunch of mounts on that on that program on uh brighter note one of these years james i'm going to have to be able to lure you to meet me at tampa bay downs for the tampa bay derby i was up there last saturday with a few friends uh they were kind enough uh the folks at tampa bay downs to give us a great box right up in front right near the sixteenth bowl you could see the paddock you could see the races clear uh there were a few

58:51hr r n listeners who came by and said hi and it was great meeting them and it was just a fun day and obviously the good weather helped and even when it rained a little bit we were underneath enough where it didn't it bothered us but one of these years you're going to have to meet me there for the tampa bay derby and then we're going to go to burns and get a great stake afterwards my friend i'd love to bobby never been to tampa that's a track for sure i'd like to visit one day that's going to wrap it up today on the brisnet dot com call and show for our producer lead delapina my co-host james scully i'm bobby newman thank you so much for toning in full day tomorrow here on the network betting with bobby four to five trainer talk five to six and the weekend states preview from six to seven all part of virginia thoroughbred week presented by the virginia equine alliance

59:56you