Has Waymo Finally Solved Robotaxi Supply?

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss whether Waymo has finally solved the supply constraint question following reports of a deal for 50,000 Hyundai vehicles by 2028. They break down the economics, theorizing a $50,000 per-vehicle cost that likely includes line-fit sensors, a price point that Grayson argues destroys the bear case that autonomous vehicles cannot cost-effectively scale.

The conversation then shifts to hardware as Walt puts on his inspector hat, spotting a hidden Class 8 truck graphic in Waymo’s latest blog post. This revelation sparks a debate on if Waymo is planning a return to trucking in 2027 to coincide with the new Daimler Truck’s new Freightliner Cascadia redundant chassis platform. They also analyze Waymo’s 6th Generation Driver, noting the emphasis on custom silicon and aggressive camera cleaning systems seems to mimic Tesla’s approach.

On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, they discuss Lyft’s plan to launch Baidu RT6 robotaxis in London and Uber’s deployment of Chinese robotaxis in Dubai. While Uber touts its partners, Grayson provides ground truth on the Chinese market, arguing that strict geofences and residency restrictions mean the technology is not as far ahead as Western media portrays.

Looking at the broader ecosystem, Grayson and Walt analyze Aurora’s pivot to upfitting International trucks, a strategy shift that mirrors competitor Kodiak, along with Kodiak’s new defense partnership with the United States Marine Corps.

Closing out the show, they discuss the current regulatory environment for autonomous vehicles and NHTSA’s Automated Vehicle Safety Public Meeting upcoming in March and Waymo calling for D.C. residents to advocate for autonomous vehicles.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Waymo’s Reported 50,000 Robotaxi Hyundai Deal

03:26 The $50,000 Robotaxi Economics

06:20 Zeekr & Waymo/Magna Mesa Upfitting Plant

10:11 Scaling to 750,000 Autonomous Vehicles

17:09 Waymo Gen 6: Custom Silicon & Improved Cameras

23:21 Uber’s Narrative vs. Waymo’s Reality

28:09 Lyft’s Flex Drive Advantage

31:52 Inspector Walt: Waymo’s Autonomous Truck Tease

33:41 Aurora’s Pivot & Kodiak’s Marine Corps Deal

41:39 Foreign Autonomy Desk: Lyft in London & Uber in Dubai

45:09 The Regulatory Tide Turns

48:38 Hyundai: The Arms Dealer of Autonomy

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