Global Data Pod Weekender: A riddle wrapped in a mystery

Despite resilience through 3Q, we maintain that drags are building and still see recession odds at 40%. Heightened labor market risk was enough to get the Fed to cut this week and signal two more by year-end, even if not the start of a more aggressive easing cycle. Beneath the surface, 4-6 quarters of weak job growth with trend-like GDP growth raises questions about the structure of the economy while also adding to near-term vulnerabilities.

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 19 September 2025.

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