Geno Smith and Will McDonald's Stat Swings

NFL stats can be wildly unpredictable due to the short season and random bounces—making one bad stretch or lucky break feel like it defines an entire year. Geno Smith, who led the league in completion percentage and TDs in 2022, turned it around with a brutal 2-13 record last season, throwing nearly five more interceptions than expected—mostly due to bad luck. Meanwhile, EDGE rusher Will McDonald, who had over 10 sacks in 2024, saw his numbers dip last year because the secondary struggled to limit passing plays, leaving him with little time to pressure QBs. But the tape proves McDonald was still effective—and with a stronger secondary expected this season, he’s poised for a rebound. Both players are due for regression to the mean, and the NFL’s volatile nature means these swings are par for the course.

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